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Hector Neris

Latest On Yankees’ Bullpen Targets

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The Yankees are primarily focused on bullpen additions at this stage of the offseason and have been tied to various free agents over the past few weeks. Right-hander Hector Neris has been among the most oft-cited potential targets for the Yanks, and while SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the team has indeed spoken to the 34-year-old Neris, he also has “serious” interest from teams outside New York. The YES Network’s Jack Curry, meanwhile, hears that Neris isn’t likely to land in the Bronx as of this moment (video link). Reunions with southpaw Wandy Peralta and/or righty Keynan Middleton seem likelier than signing Neris, according to Curry.

Neris, 34, has been an eyeing a one- or two-year deal worth $7-11MM annually, per Martino. For a Yankees club that’s well into the final tier of luxury tax penalties and is a third-time CBT offender, that’d mean effectively paying Neris between $14.7MM and $24.2MM in 2024; any additional free-agent spending at this point will come with a 110% luxury hit. As such, it’s not particularly surprising to see the Yankees looking at lower-cost alternatives.

The 32-year-old Peralta has been a fixture in the Yankees’ bullpen for the past three season. From 2021-23, he logged 153 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 21% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and huge 56.5% ground-ball rate. In addition to keeping the ball on the ground at a strong clip, Peralta manages hard contact quite well. He’s been in the 88th percentile or better in opponents’ average exit velocity in each of the past four seasons, per Statcast. The Mets have also spoken to Peralta in recent weeks, though they face the same CBT status and probably feel less urgency to get into any sort of bidding war, as they’re in more of a transitional state than the clearly win-now Yankees.

Middleton, 30, was a deadline pickup by the Yankees and pitched to a 1.88 ERA with a 30.4% strikeout rate and 12.5% walk rate in 14 1/3 innings down the stretch. Inflammation in his right shoulder cost him most of September, but he did make it back the mound for one final appearance on Sept. 29.

That nice showing with the Yankees capped a fine rebound season for the former Angels hurler. In 50 2/3 innings between the White Sox and Yankees, Middleton notched a 3.38 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and career-best 56.6% ground-ball rate that was 24 percentage points higher than the career mark he carried into the season. The right-hander threw his four-seamer at a career-low 26.3% clip and tossed his changeup at a 42.9% clip that was far and away the highest of his career, which likely accounts for the stark uptick in grounders. Middleton threw more changeups in 2023 (367) than he had in his entire career combined (237). Opponents beat the offering into the ground at a hefty 64.6% clip and managed only .209 average when putting it in play.

Mets Interested In Ryne Stanek, Héctor Neris

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The Mets have interest in free agent right-hander Ryne Stanek, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. That would track with the club’s interest in making further bullpen moves, something that was confirmed by president of baseball operations David Stearns recently. Andy Martino of SNY relays that the club is willing to spend another $10MM or so this offseason, with perhaps more funds available at the deadline if they are contending. Martino adds that the club has spoken to the representatives for free agent righty Héctor Neris.

There has been a lot of turnover in the Mets’ bullpen relative to last year. David Robertson and Dominic Leone were traded at last year’s deadline, then Adam Ottavino opted out of his deal. Various other players were either non-tendered or outrighted.

Since then, the club has given one-year deals to Michael Tonkin, Jorge López and Austin Adams. That’s been in keeping with the club’s slate of short-term moves to bolster other parts of the roster. Sean Manaea got a two-year deal but with an opt-out after year one, while to Luis Severino Harrison Bader and Joey Wendle all inked one-year deals. The bullpen also got a new arm via trade when the Mets acquired Yohan Ramírez from the White Sox, and they’ve given minor league deals to journeymen like Cole Sulser, Yacksel Ríos and others.

It seems the club is still hoping to add another arm in there before Opening Day. Stanek, 32, has had a solid run for the Astros over the past three years. He’s made 186 appearances in that time with a 2.90 earned run average. He has struck out 27% of batters faced but also given out walks a a 12.2% clip. That strikeout rate fell to 23.9% in 2023, but he also cut his walk rate to 9.9%, a career low for him.

Neris, 35 in June, spent the past two years with Houston, with a 2.69 ERA over his 141 appearances. He paired a 29.1% strikeout rate with a 9% walk rate. His ERA dropped from 3.72 in 2022 to 1.71 last year, but that seems to have involved quite a bit of good fortune. His strikeout and walk rates actually worsened compared to the year prior, but his batting average on balls in play dropped by more than 70 points while his strand rate spiked from 63.4% to 90.5%. Neris’ 3.83 FIP and 3.89 SIERA in 2023 were each more than a full run higher than they were in 2022.

Either pitcher could be a sensible option for the Mets. Astros general manager Dana Brown recently said that they have interest in bringing those pitchers back, though that was before they signed Josh Hader and launched themselves over the competitive balance tax threshold. Neris has also reportedly received interest from the Rangers, Yankees and Cardinals.

Despite heading into 2024 with a sort of retool in mind, the Mets have a CBT number of $318MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well over the fourth and final tier of the CBT, which is $297MM this year. As a third-time payor in that stratosphere, the Mets are subject to a 110% tax rate on any further spending, though it seems that won’t be an obstacle to them adding to their bullpen in the coming weeks.

Brown: Graveman Injury Does Not Intensify Astros’ Bullpen Pursuit

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The Astros were already facing the loss of relievers Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek via free agency, and they’ll now also be without righty Kendall Graveman for the 2024 season after he underwent shoulder surgery. The team announced Graveman’s operation earlier today, declining to delve into specifics, but subtracting him from the ’pen equation leaves Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu and rebound hopeful Rafael Montero as the only Houston relievers with even three years of MLB service. The vast majority of Houston’s bullpen options have under one year of MLB service time.

“We’ve been focused on the (bullpen) anyway, this doesn’t intensify it,” general manager Dana Brown tells Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “We just may have to get one more body or one of our guys internally will step up.” Brown made similar comments to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, telling him that the Astros have some in-house relief options “that we really feel good about,” though the GM also conceded that he’s still in the market to bring in an additional bullpen arm from outside the organization.

The free agent market for relievers has dried up over the past couple months. As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, there have been 34 relief pitchers signed to Major League contracts this winter. None have signed with Houston. Brown acknowledged to Rome that he’d had talks with the representatives for all of Neris, Maton and Stanek but wouldn’t specify much beyond the fact that he’s “more in the ballpark” with one of Neris/Maton than the other. Rome reported last week that the Astros haven’t pursued Maton aggressively, and he doubled down on that in today’s report.

While many of the top relievers are already off the board, there are still plenty of experienced names from which to choose if Houston is intent on adding a free agent. The ’Stros almost certainly aren’t going to spend at the necessary levels to add top-tier names like Josh Hader and Robert Stephenson, but more affordable options still on the market include Ryan Brasier, John Brebbia, Michael Fulmer, Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino and Wandy Peralta — to name just a few.

“If we can go get one more [reliever] and use some of the candidates in-house, we feel like we’ll be good,” Brown replied when asked by McTaggart about adding another bullpen arm.

One of the primary questions for the ’Stros will be one of finances. To this point, the only free agent they’ve signed to a big league deal this winter is backup catcher Victor Caratini. That signing placed Houston within $1MM of the $237MM luxury-tax threshold, per Roster Resource. Owner Jim Crane hasn’t publicly declared any mandate to remain shy of that barrier, but the Astros’ lack of activity this winter, coupled with trade rumblings regarding some of their more prominent but expensive players (e.g. Framber Valdez) have combined to fuel speculation about a desire to avoid paying the tax. Houston has crossed the tax threshold only once under Crane’s ownership.

Yankees, Rangers Are “Potential Frontrunners” For Hector Neris

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The market for right-hander Hector Neris may be picking up steam, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the Yankees and Rangers have emerged as potential frontrunners for the veteran’s services.

After spending the first eight seasons of his career in Philadelphia, Neris hit the open market and landed with the Astros on a two-year deal prior to the 2022 campaign. The deal featured an $8.5MM vesting option ($1MM buyout) for the 2024 campaign, but Neris met the appearance thresholds stipulated in the deal to vest it into a player option and declined it earlier this winter, allowing him to depart Houston and test the open market. It’s easy to see why Neris declined the option. The 34-year-old is coming off a dominant season in Houston where he posted a sterling 1.71 ERA (246 ERA+) with a 28.2% strikeout rate in 68 1/3 innings of work across 71 appearances.

While an elevated 11.4% walk rate and an unbelievable 90.5% strand rate both cast doubt on that fantastic performance, as does his 3.83 FIP, looking at the righty’s time in Houston as a whole highlights Neris as one of the more consistent relievers in the game over the past two seasons. In 133 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2022 campaign, Neris has posted a 2.69 ERA and 3.10 FIP with a 29.1% strikeout rate against a 9% walk rate. That ERA ranks tenth among all relievers with at least 120 innings of work over the past two seasons, while his strikeout rate ranks 14th.

That strong performance during his time in Houston led MLBTR to predict a two-year $15MM contract for Neris on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where Neris was ranked 46th. His market has been fairly quiet this winter, however. While the Astros and Cardinals have both received passing mentions as possible landing spots for the righty this winter, much of the conversation on the right-handed relief market has been focused on Jordan Hicks this winter. With that said, yesterday’s news of a four-year deal between Hicks and the Giants takes the top right-handed reliever off the board and leaves Neris as perhaps the second best righty reliever remaining after Robert Stephenson.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Rangers would have interest in Neris’s services. The reigning World Series champions’ bullpen woes are well-established at this point, as a relief corps that struggled to a 4.77 ERA last year has lost the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, and Chris Stratton to free agency. That leaves closer Jose Leclerc as the only reliable, late-inning holdover for the Rangers headed into 2024. While the addition of Kirby Yates earlier this winter should help, Texas will surely need more relief reinforcements this winter if they hope to emerge atop a competitive AL West in 2024 much less return to the World Series. While the club has occasionally been linked to relief ace Josh Hader this winter, the club’s reported budgetary issues could leave the lefty out of their price range, making Neris a more affordable alternative.

By contrast, the Yankees are something of a surprising suitor for the veteran righty. The club’s 3.34 bullpen ERA in 2023 was the best among all major league clubs last year, and while the relief corps lost a key piece in Michael King to the Padres as part of the return for Juan Soto the Bronx bullpen still features the likes of Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loasigia, and Tommy Kahnle as high-leverage arms with Ian Hamilton, Scott Effross, and Victor Gonzalez among those expected to handle the middle innings. Given the strength of that group, it’s fair to wonder if the club’s resources would be better allocated elsewhere, particularly given the question marks remaining in the rotation even after landing Marcus Stroman.

Nonetheless, Andy Martino of SNY confirms that the Yankees are engaged in the relief market at this point in the winter and suggests that a reunion with left-hander Wandy Peralta, who posted a 2.83 ERA despite a 5.05 FIP in 54 innings with the club last year, could be another possible avenue for the team to explore in its search for bullpen upgrades. Martino also notes that the team was heavily involved in the sweepstakes for Hicks before he ultimately settled on heading to San Francisco for a chance to start. With the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery expected to secure hefty guarantees in free agency and the asking price on trade candidates such as Dylan Cease seemingly out of New York’s comfort zone, it’s possible GM Brian Cashman and his front office have pivoted to bolstering the club’s bullpen as an alternative route to upgrading the club’s pitching staff after focusing on rotation upgrades for much of the winter.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pursuit Of Bullpen Help

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The Cardinals acted quickly to reshape their rotation this offseason, signing right-handers Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn within a span of a week. They’ve since shipped outfielder Tyler O’Neill to the Red Sox in a trade that netted a pair of potential bullpen arms, but they’re not done looking for help in their relief corps. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported earlier this week that the Cards have at least held internal discussions about free agent righty Hector Neris, and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Cardinals hosted star NPB lefty Yuki Matsui for a meeting in St. Louis just yesterday. Goold also again linked the Cards to free agent Phil Maton, to whom they’ve been previously tied.

The meeting with Matsui is the more notable development at the moment. Reports out of Japan back in October pegged the Cardinals as a team with interest in the five-time NPB All-Star, but a sitdown in St. Louis is a more concrete indicator.

The 28-year-old Matsui has saved 30 or more games for the Rakuten Golden Eagles on six different occasions, including this past season’s career-high mark of 39. He pitched 57 1/3 innings in 2023 and worked to a scintillating 1.57 ERA, giving him three straight seasons with an ERA that clocked in under 2.00. Matsui also fanned nearly a third of his opponents and turned in a 5.9% walk rate. Dating back to 2019, the southpaw boasts a 2.20 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate.

Matsui’s track record in Japan is clearly excellent, but there’s at least some reason to think MLB clubs might have some trepidation. He’s listed at just 5’8″ and 167 pounds — a Tim Collins-esque frame that rarely has found much success in the big leagues. MLBTR spoke to multiple scouts and evaluators about Matsui and other international free agents prior to the onset of free agency and received mixed reviews, though Matsui did draw praise for his slider and deceptive delivery. Every team’s opinion on Matsui will vary, of course, and it stands to reason that there are big league clubs that believe he can be a viable late-inning reliever in North American ball — even if he can’t quite replicate his staggering NPB numbers.

Because of his lengthy track record in NPB — he’s pitched 10 full seasons despite his youth — Matsui accrued enough service time to be a free agent who can sign in MLB without being subject to the MLB/NPB posting system. (NPB requires nine years of service to become an unrestricted free agent.) That fact, coupled with his age and his year-over-year excellence could help to mitigate concerns about Matsui’s size and lead to a multi-year deal.

Neris, meanwhile, is more of a known commodity. He’s accrued more than eight years of MLB service time since debuting with the Phillies back in 2014 and has regularly been a high-leverage option for both the Phillies and Astros — the only two clubs for whom he’s pitched to this point in his career. Neris logged 68 1/3 innings with the ’Stros in 2023, posting a pristine 1.71 ERA in his second season with Houston. His two-year, $17MM deal with Houston contained a club option for 2025, but a clause in his contract converted that to a player option depending on Neris’ workload. He remained healthy and effective in his time with Houston and wound up vesting that player option, which he declined in search of another multi-year deal.

Last year’s shiny ERA is certainly eye-catching, though Neris’ 11.4% walk rate and tiny .219 average on balls in play are among the reasons that fielding-independent metrics are more bearish on his most recent performance (3.83 FIP, 3.89 SIERA). Those are still fine marks, of course, and Neris still fanned 28.2% of his opponents with swinging-strike and chase rates (14.1% and 35.1%, respectively) that were well north of the league average. Dating back to 2018, Neris sports a terrific 31.3% strikeout rate. He’s also avoided the injured list almost entirely in his big league career, with his only IL trip coming back in 2020, when he spent three weeks on the Covid-related IL.

Ryan Helsley will likely reprise his role as the Cardinals’ closer and be supported by Giovanny Gallegos and out-of-options southpaw JoJo Romero next season. The remainder of the Cardinals’ bullpen is a bit more fluid, with Andre Pallante, Zack Thompson, Nick Robertson (acquired from Boston for O’Neill) and Matthew Liberatore among the options for manager Oli Marmol. The Cardinals’ activity thus far has pushed their payroll a bit north of $175MM, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has previously hinted that there’s room to further add to that figure.

Astros, Rangers, Red Sox, Angels Among Teams Interested In Jordan Hicks

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December 5: The Angels and Red Sox have also checked in on Hicks, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Both clubs could use some bullpen reinforcements, with Boston relievers having posted a collective 4.32 ERA in 2023 while the Angels were at 4.88.

December 4: The Astros, Rangers, Cardinals and Orioles are among the teams with interest in right-hander Jordan Hicks this offseason, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Cardinals and Orioles having interest is no surprise since they had previously been linked to the 27-year-old earlier in the offseason. The connections to the Rangers and Astros, however, are new.

The Rangers make plenty of sense as a potential fit for Hicks. The reigning World Series champions got excellent results out of their offense and starting pitching in 2023, but faced significant struggles in the bullpen. The club’s relief corps combined for a 4.77 ERA that was bottom-seven in the majors, while the group’s 4.45 FIP and 2.6 fWAR were also bottom-ten figures. The Twins, Diamondbacks, and Marlins were the only other playoff teams to feature a bottom-ten bullpen in even one of those three categories, and no club besides the Rangers appeared in the bottom of those leaderboards more than once.

That acute need for bullpen additions has led the Rangers to be frequently connected to top-of-the-market closer Josh Hader, who posted a sensational season in 2023 with a 1.28 ERA and a 36.8% strikeout rate while picking up 33 saves in 56 1/3 innings of work with the Padres. That being said, Hader has a chance to land a record-breaking contract in free agency this offseason, with MLBTR projecting the lefty for a six-year, $110MM contract on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, on which he ranks eighth overall. Coming off a World Series championship in 2023 and a pair of offseasons where they were among the league’s biggest spenders, it’s possible that sort of contract won’t be a problem for Texas.

That being said, GM Chris Young recently cautioned that the club doesn’t expect to spend quite as lavishly this offseason as they have the past two winters. If the Rangers do find that Hader is out of their price range, Hicks could represent a more affordable alternative who has still flashed elite upside as a late-inning arm. Hicks, who was the second-highest rated reliever (#21 overall) on MLBTR’s list with a projected price tag of four years and $40MM, boasts a triple-digit fastball with sinking action that allows him to post groundball rates near 60% on a yearly basis.

While control and injury issues have dogged Hicks throughout his career, the righty is still three seasons away from his 30th birthday and impressed this season with a career-high 28.4% strikeout rate. While his 3.29 ERA hardly jumps off the page for a back-end relief arm, it’s worth noting that Hicks’ season numbers are skewed by a brutal early-season performance where he surrendered nine runs (eight earned) in just 5 2/3 innings across seven appearances. After that point, Hicks boasted a sterling 2.40 ERA and 2.59 FIP with a 30% strikeout rate against a 9.6% walk rate in his final 60 innings of work. While its not reasonable to simply ignore a rocky start to the season entirely, Hicks’s strong performance after the first two weeks of his season does highlight the tantalizing upside the right-hander has flashed throughout his career.

The Astros, on the other hand, are a somewhat less obvious suitor. Veteran righty Ryan Pressly is entrenched as the club’s closer, while young hurler Bryan Abreu has emerged as one of the best young relief arms in the league with a 1.84 ERA and 2.59 FIP across the past two seasons. That duo led the Astros’ relief corps to a sterling 3.56 ERA in 2023, the sixth-best figure in the league. Houston’s bullpen sports similarly strong advanced metrics, as only six clubs posted a better collective SIERA than the Astros’ 3.79 figure.

Good as the club’s relief corps was in 2023, however, it’s important to note that the Astros have since lost key pieces such as Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Phil Maton to free agency. While Pressly and Abreu certainly make for a strong back-end duo, Houston looking to replace those outgoing arms is hardly a surprise, and few options available figure to be better than Hicks. While the Astros clearly need additional relief arms to supplement the roster, it’s fair to wonder if Hicks is the most realistic target for the club from a financial perspective. GM Dana Brown cautioned earlier in the offseason that the club doesn’t have “a ton” of financial flexibility to work with this winter while telling reporters he’s “not interested in overpaying” for bullpen arms.

Given the club’s limited financial flexibility, it would register as something of a surprise for the Astros to commit a hefty sum to a single reliever given their other needs. The Astros are known to be in the market for a backup catcher in addition to bullpen, to say nothing of the possibility they look to add a left-handed bat to replace Michael Brantley or shore up a starting rotation lacking in certainty behind Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. While it’s impossible to deny that the addition of Hicks to a bullpen that already features Abreu and Pressly could create a three-headed monster that few teams could replicate, it’s fair as a wonder if a cheaper option could be more feasible for Houston from a financial perspective. One such option could be a reunion with Hector Neris, who The Athletic’s Chandler Rome relayed this evening Brown has been in contact with. MLBTR ranked Neris, who posted a 1.71 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 68 1/3 innings for the Astros last year, as the offseason’s #46 free agent while projecting him for a two-year, $15MM deal.

Hector Neris Declines Player Option With Astros

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Right-hander Hector Neris will test free agency after declining his player option for the 2024 season, MLB Trade Rumors has learned.  Neris passed a postseason physical, which was the final step in turning the Astros’ $8.5MM club option (with a $1MM buyout) for 2024 into a player option.  The terms of Neris’ two-year, $17MM deal with Houston allowed that club option to vest into a player option if Neris made at least 110 appearances over the 2022-23 seasons, and the righty easily passed that benchmark with 141 games pitched.

Neris turned 34 back in June, yet doesn’t appear to be slowing down at all, considering that he posted a 1.71 ERA over 68 1/3 innings in 2023.  An 11.4% walk rate is a red flag, yet most of Neris’ other metrics were well above average, and he was one of baseball’s best at limiting hard contact.  A 3.89 SIERA might be a better reflection of Neris’ 2023 performance given his walk rate and his .219 BABIP, yet in some sense, Neris’ luck was evening out after a 2022 season that saw him post a 3.72 ERA but a 2.70 SIERA.

The combined result is a 2.69 ERA/3.29 SIERA over Neris’ two seasons in an Astros uniform, as well as 56 holds in a setup role in front of closer Ryan Pressly.  With Rafael Montero, Phil Maton, and Bryan Abreu also contributing to a strong late-game mix, Neris was routinely called upon to shut down batters in the seventh or eighth inning, with generally impressive results.  In addition to his regular-season work, Neris also had a 1.50 ERA over six innings and eight appearances during the 2022 playoffs, helping the Astros win the World Series.

There wasn’t much suspense that Neris would test the market again, as he should be able to land another multi-year deal coming off of this strong performance.  The 10-year MLB veteran formerly worked as the Phillies’ closer early in his career, so he might have some extra appeal to a team that could use at least a backup option for save situations, even if Neris is likely going to be targeted as a setup man by most of his suitors.  Neris looks to be one of the better options available in a typically crowded bullpen market, and some options are already off the board since the Braves re-signed Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson.

Yainer Diaz To Be Astros’ Primary Catcher In 2024

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Astros’ general manager Dana Brown spoke with KPRC 2 recently about the club’s priorities. He naturally listed bullpen as a target area with Phil Maton, Hector Neris and Ryne Stanek set to become free agents. He also said that the club will need a backup catcher for Yainer Diaz, who is going to be “the main guy next year.”

The Astros have been employing Martín Maldonado as their primary backstop in recent years, which certainly hasn’t been because of his bat. Though he had a nice showing at the plate in the shortened 2020 season, he has hit .183/.260/.333 in 1,212 plate appearances over the past three years. That amounts to a wRC+ of 66, indicating he was 34% worse than the league average hitter over that stretch.

Despite that tepid offense, he has been a valuable member of the Astros in that time thanks to his glovework and his handling of the pitching staff. But his defensive numbers slid a bit in 2023, hardly surprising since he is now 37 years old. With his contract now expiring, it seems the club is planning to move on.

That decision has been made easier by the emergence of Diaz, who had a breakout year in 2023. His 2.9% walk rate is quite low, but he also limited his strikeouts to a 19.6% rate. He launched 23 home runs and produced a line of .282/.308/.538 for a wRC+ of 127. Among catchers with at least 350 plate appearances for the year, only Sean Murphy had a higher wRC+ mark, with his 129 just two points ahead.

But with Maldonado behind the plate most days, a lot of that production took place while Diaz wasn’t catching. He did get 42 starts as the catcher but also 36 as the designated hitter and seven at first base. It’s hard to get meaningful data from that small sample of work behind the plate but, for what it’s worth, Statcast liked his blocking and work with the running game. However, each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus considered his framing to be subpar. Regardless of the details, the overall body of work was strong and it’s logical the club wants to give him the gig next year.

Diaz is only 25 so it’s entirely possible there’s still room to grow. He has just over a year of service time, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration before the end of 2025 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. Perhaps the club will face some challenges in moving from a respected veteran to a far younger catcher, but those concerns could be ameliorated somewhat by bringing in a veteran to support Diaz.

Maldonado could perhaps be that veteran, though it might be tough for the club to bring him back and then limit him to a part-time role. Other options on the free agent market include Austin Hedges, Yasmani Grandal, Victor Caratini and Tucker Barnhart. The trade market could feature guys like Jacob Stallings of the Marlins or Kyle Higashioka of the Yankees.

As Brown outlines, targeting bullpen help will be a logical move with Maton, Stanek and Neris headed for the open market. Neris actually has a player option and no decision has been publicly reported on that, but it sounds like Brown is expecting him to turn it down. That’s not surprising since Neris posted a 1.71 ERA in 2023. He won’t be able to sustain a .219 batting average on balls in play or 90.5% strand rate, which is why his 3.83 FIP and 3.89 SIERA were more than two runs above his ERA. But nonetheless, he recorded 31 holds and a couple of saves while striking out 28.2% of batters faced. It’s a net $7.5MM decision, with the option valued at $8.5MM with a $1MM buyout. He probably won’t be able to get his ERA under 2.00 again but he should still be able to beat that guarantee on the open market.

Brown noted that some of the replacements could be internal but they may look to make some moves this winter as well. Josh Hader is the top reliever available but there are also names like Jordan Hicks, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Robert Stephenson and many more.

Financially, the club may be walking a tricky line, unless they want to break their own tendencies. They have generally tried to stay under the competitive balance tax, which will have a base threshold of $237MM next year. The club is already at $231MM for next year, per the calculations of Roster Resource, though Neris opting out will drop that below $225MM. Adding a backup catcher and a reliever won’t necessarily break the bank, but it doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room if they want to stay under the tax again in 2024.

West Notes: Angels, Rockies, Neris

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The Angels have operated with a six-man rotation for the past several years, though that could change in 2024, as noted by Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. GM Perry Minasian told reporters recently that the size of next year’s rotation is something they’ve “discussed at length” and that they’re comfortable with a five-man rotation next season, saying that the club feels “the arms we have in-house can handle it.”

Minasian’s comments would seem to imply that the club doesn’t expect to make any external additions in terms of starting pitchers this offseason. Of course, a five-man rotation is made possible by the absence of two-way star Shohei Ohtani, though as Fletcher notes the comments aren’t necessarily indicative of the Angels’ opinion on his likelihood to re-sign in Anaheim. After all, Ohtani isn’t expected to pitch until the 2025 season after undergoing elbow surgery.

If the Angels indeed rely on their current group of starters next year, the rotation figures to be fronted by lefties Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers, while righty Griffin Canning and veteran southpaw Tyler Anderson look to occupy the middle of the club’s rotation. The fifth (and, potentially, sixth) starter spots seem more unclear, with Chase Silseth, Jose Suarez, Jaime Barria, and Kenny Rosenberg among those to draw starts for the club this season who could get a look next year.

More from around MLB’s West Divisions…

  • The Rockies have a bit of a logjam between first base, right field, and DH headed into next year, as noted by Luke Zahlmann of the Denver Gazette, as he listed each of Kris Bryant, Charlie Blackmon, Elehuris Montero, Sean Bouchard, and Michael Toglia as each vying for playing time at the three positions. Bryant and Blackmon figure to be regular players, though that would leave just one spot for the other three, a situation that Zahlmann ties to the club’s desire to add additional starting pitching depth this offseason. Dangling a player from that mix in trade talks could allow the Rockies to complement a rotation that currently figures to enter 2024 with plenty of question marks, and Zahlmann even notes that top prospects like Zac Veen and Jordan Beck could be dangled “in the right deal.” Of course, the 103-loss Rockies would surely require a quality starter with multiple years of control if they were to part with any of their top-100 prospects in a trade for pitching this offseason.
  • Astros right-hander Hector Neris was fined by MLB for his role in a benches-clearing altercation between Houston and Seattle in late September, per GM Dana Brown (as relayed by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome), though Brown added that he does not believe Neris will be suspended for the incident. Neris shouted at and charged toward Rodriguez after striking him out during last week’s 8-3 win over the Mariners, causing both benches to clear. That Neris figures to avoid a suspension is great news for the Astros, as he’s been nothing short of dominant this year. The 34-year-old righty sports a 1.71 ERA and a 3.83 FIP across 71 appearances with the club this year. Neris figures to hold a $8.5MM player option for the 2024 campaign, so long as he passes a physical after the end of the season.

Hector Neris Reaches 110 Astros Appearances, Converts 2024 Option

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Astros right-hander Hector Neris made his 110th appearance tonight since signing a two-year, $17MM deal with Houston prior to the 2022 season. Tonight’s appearance triggered a clause in that contract converts the deal’s $8.5MM team option ($1MM buyout) into a player option. Neris needed to reach either 60 appearances in 2023 or 110 appearances between 2022 and 2023 to convert the option. With tonight’s appearance in the books, the 34-year-old righty will have control of the option this coming offseason, though the Associated Press notes that if Neris ends the 2023 campaign on the injured list or fails to pass a physical after the season, the Astros will retain control of the option.

If the second half of Neris’s 2023 campaign goes as well as the first half has, the righty will surely decline the option if given the opportunity. Prior to tonight’s scoreless outing, Neris boasted a 1.47 ERA in 36 2/3 innings of work, good for a whopping 287 ERA+. Neris’s peripherals leave room for some mild concern: he sports a rather high 10.4% walk rate, has stranded a whopping 95.8% of baserunners, and has allowed a career-low .232 BABIP. Of course, the regression one might expect given those numbers is baked into advanced metrics. Those metrics are rather bullish on Neris: the righty sports a solid 3.73 FIP, an excellent 2.76 xERA and a strong 3.55 SIERA.

Neris will be entering his age-35 season in 2024, so it’s possible that his age will limit any multi-year offers he receives in free agency. Even if that turns out to be the case, however, it’s certainly feasible for Neris could surpass the $7.5MM he’d be leaving on the table by testing the open market. After all, David Robertson landed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Mets last offseason entering his age-38 campaign after posting a 2.40 ERA and 3.58 FIP in his first fully healthy season since 2018.

In the meantime, Neris figures to be the Astros’ top setup option for closer Ryan Pressly as Houston looks to defend its 2022 World Series championship. The club is currently 50-40, two games back of the Rangers for control of the AL West and one game ahead of the Yankees and Blue Jays for the second of three AL Wild Card spots.

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