J.T. Realmuto

Star Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto expressed disappointment today — not with his earnings or with the team, but with the process — after learning he had lost his arbitration case against the ballclub. Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer was among those to collect Realmuto’s thoughts.

Realmuto says he’s “fortunate” to earn a hefty $10MM salary, but said he’s “disappointed in the system more than anything.” He had sought a $12.4MM salary, with his side arguing that he ought to be compared as much to other high-quality position players as to prior catchers.

The hope, says Realmuto, was “to advance it a little bit and do something for future catchers.” Calling the system “outdated,” he criticized the fact that “there’s a separate catchers’ market.”

Realmuto ran into some of the same problems some other players have had with breaking up the strange forms of arbitration. Just as Josh Hader failed to convince a panel that he shouldn’t be undervalued just because he didn’t have a lot of saves, Realmuto struggled to pull away from the gravitational field of prior catcher salaries.

While the Phils will save some cash this year, don’t expect Realmuto to lower his sights when it comes to working out his first multi-year contract. That’s not out of bitterness — Realmuto didn’t express any disdain for the Phillies — but the same business-oriented approach that led him to take his arb case to a hearing. The arbitration process “doesn’t change anything from my outlook,” he said.

So, how likely is a deal? Realmuto says he “can’t predict the future.” He did express an ongoing interest in holding discussions with the team but wasn’t interested in handicapping the outcome. “Whether it matches up or not, that’s to be determined,” says the two-time All-Star.

The big question remains just what price Realmuto will demand — and how far the Phillies will stretch to keep him from reaching the open market. Breen joins Jon Heyman of MLB Network (video link) in suggesting that Realmuto’s camp would like to top the catcher-record $23MM annual value achieved a decade back by Joe Mauer. And Heyman says he expects Realmuto to look for a seven-year term.

It’s frankly tough to imagine the Phillies reaching to that level to lock up Realmuto with a year to go before free agency. Even on the open market, that level of annual salary and length of term seems like a reach for a player who’ll turn 30 before opening the 2021 season. Mauer’s monster deal is outdated, it’s true, but he was at the time a perennial MVP candidate and was also still just 27 years of age. If Realmuto is earn that sort of AAV over a significant term, he may need to log a big all-around season and market his services to all thirty teams next winter.

Phillies backstop J.T. Realmuto is pursuing a significant raise in his final season of arbitration eligibility. But the wage dispute is a pragmatic one, the star explained to reporters including Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

There’s a sizable spread between what Realmuto is seeking and what the Philadelphia organization is defending, raising the possibility of a relatively high-stakes hearing of the sort that can lead to some emotional moments. Whether or not there’s any mud-slinging before the arbitration panel, the backstop suggests that hurt feelings won’t be the cause or the result.

“I have a pretty good understanding of the process,” he says, “and I know it’s not the Phillies trying to slight me at all. It’s more the system. There’s no hard feelings there.”

Realmuto explains that he feels the Phils were generally fair in negotiations to this point. The Phillies filed at $10MM, coming in just shy of the $10.3MM projected by the computer model of MLBTR & arbitration guru Matt Swartz, so the club obviously was at least within reasonable bounds with its numbers. But Realmuto sees an argument for greater earnings — not only for himself, but also future backstops.

“Historically, catchers haven’t been treated very well in the arbitration process,” Realmuto opines. “So we feel like this is an opportunity for us to advance that for future catchers.”

It’ll be interesting to see how Realmuto and his reps go about trying to nudge the system in the player’s favor. Certainly, the rise in measurable catching statistics — Realmuto grades as one of the game’s top defensive backstops — creates some new potential evidence to work with. That the Phillies organization has heaped public praise upon Realmuto surely doesn’t hurt.

So, what does this all mean for a possible extension? Bad blood evidently won’t scuttle a deal. But a Realpolitik Realmuto will presumably also be a hard bargainer when it comes time to value his future.

“Anybody who knows much about the arbitration process knows that it’s business,” says Realmuto. “It’s not necessarily me against the Phillies right now. There’s definitely not any hard feelings there. So, I feel like we’re in the same place we were two or three months ago with the contract extension.”

The Phillies have been “quietly trying to” negotiate a contract extension with star catcher J.T. Realmuto and his representatives, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports.  It isn’t known how far along in the process the two sides are, though Salisbury cautions that a deal might not be completed until later in the offseason for a variety of reasons.

It isn’t any secret that the Phils are hoping to keep Realmuto over the long term, as GM Matt Klentak stated that sitting down with Realmuto about a new contract was “one of our offseason goals.”  Realmuto is only under team control through 2020, and is slated to be one of the most sought-after members of next winter’s free agent class unless the Phillies can lock him up in the interim.

Realmuto is projected to earn $10.3MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, a more-than-reasonable sum for the sport’s best all-around catcher.  That one remaining arb year, however, could also factor into extension talks, as Salisbury suggests that the Phillies might prefer to work out Realmuto’s 2020 salary first rather than fold 2020 into a multi-year arrangement.  The average annual value of any contract is counted as a player’s luxury tax number, and thus the Phillies would surely want to keep Realmuto in the $10.3MM range for 2020 in order to give them more potential room to spend this season without crossing the $208MM luxury tax threshold.  A Realmuto extension (and subsequent higher AAV) therefore wouldn’t kick in until 2021 — Salisbury observes that Jake Arrieta and David Robertson will both be off the Phillies’ books at that point, allowing for more spending flexibility.

This isn’t to say that the tax threshold is necessarily a major concern for Philadelphia at the moment.  Owner John Middleton has suggested in the past that the Phils would be willing to pay the luxury tax if it meant adding the final pieces to a World Series contender, but not for “a little gain,” or “a better chance to be the second wild-card team.”  As presently constructed, the Phillies have a lot of work to do in order to approach title contention, so while Klentak and company certainly seem poised to be aggressive in the wake of a disappointing 2019 season, it seems like the club will stop short of exceeding the $208MM figure this winter.

Roster Resource projects the Phillies’ luxury tax number at slightly beyond $186.34MM, and that figure could certainly drop based on some rumored moves — potential non-tenders or trades of Maikel Franco ($6.7MM in arbitration) or Cesar Hernandez ($11.8MM), for instance.  That leaves the team with plenty of space to acquire multiple players, perhaps the starting pitching upgrades that seem to be a clear need.

The majority of contract extensions aren’t settled until Spring Training or even slightly beyond Opening Day, as teams generally prefer to get their offseason business completed before turning to in-house matters.  Though there is something of a ticking clock on Realmuto given that he is only a Phillie for one more season, the All-Star catcher has himself expressed interest in remaining with the team, so both sides would seem to have mutual interest in completing a new deal.