NL East Notes: Mets, Realmuto, Cano, Marlins, Brinson, Sierra
Let’s check in on a pair of teams from the National League East…
- The Mets pushed hard to land J.T. Realmuto before he was ultimately traded from Miami to Philadelphia, and Mike Puma of the New York Post writes in his latest mailbag column that the team’s pursuit of Realmuto might not yet be over. Realmuto is represented by CAA, the former agency of GM Brodie Van Wagenen, and current catcher Wilson Ramos has a club option for the 2021 season that isn’t a lock to be picked up ($10MM or a $1.5MM buyout). The Mets have acquired several of Van Wagenen’s former players since he became GM — Jed Lowrie, Michael Wacha and Robinson Cano — although CAA has a rather large base of clients and Van Wagenen has certainly added plenty of players from other firms (Ramos, J.D. Davis, etc.). Still, there’s no obvious in-house alternative if the team opts to move on from Ramos — or to pick up his option and look to trade him. Realmuto would indeed be an upgrade, particularly on the defensive side of things, which is notable given the questions that arose regarding Ramos’ glove in New York last year.
- The COVID-19 shutdown hasn’t been fun for anyone, but Cano has at least found a silver lining during the delayed season. Cano said Tuesday that the downtime has “been beneficial for me for sure” physically, as Tim Healey of Newsday relays. “My legs feel strong right now,” continued Cano, who’s champing at the bit to return to the diamond. “Just can’t wait to go back on the field, and then play.” If there is a season, the longtime star, 37, will aim to rebound after a rough debut campaign with the Mets. Cano hit just .257/.307/.428 with 13 homers during an injury-limited, 423-plate appearance season.
- Expanded rosters should be quite favorable for several Marlins outfielders who might not have been a lock to make the team, writes Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Lewis Brinson has drawn his share of flak having yet to produce after arriving as the centerpiece in the widely panned Christian Yelich trade, and he’d be “very, very” likely to break camp with an expanded roster. Magneuris Sierra is out of minor league options and was a risk to be exposed to waivers given his lack of big league production, but greater roster flexibility and his elite speed make him a likely bench piece at the very least. Sierra, like Brinson, came over in a high-profile swap — the Marcell Ozuna deal — although the Fish have already fared quite a bit better in that deal. Sandy Alcantara was that trade’s headliner, while righty Zac Gallen was also in that deal and has since netted the team top shortstop prospect Jazz Chisholm.
Replacing J.T. Realmuto
The Phillies have discussed an extension with soon-to-be free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, but the two sides paused those talks last month as a result of the coronavirus. The team still seems to have the inside track on locking up Realmuto, for whom it paid a pretty penny in a February 2019 trade with the National League East rival Marlins, but what if a worst-case scenario occurs? What if the Phillies are unsuccessful in trying to prevent the two-time All-Star from exiting via the open market next offseason?
[RELATED: Extension Candidate – J.T. Realmuto]
The Phillies wouldn’t be well-equipped to go on without Realmuto in the near term. They only have two other catchers – Andrew Knapp and Deivy Grullon – on their 40-man roster right now. Knapp has been a replacement-level player across 579 plate appearances since he debuted in 2017. Grullon’s still just a 24-year-old who did produce nice numbers in the high minors from 2018-19, but he has barely played in the majors and isn’t regarded as a high-end prospect.
The Phillies have at least a couple of other promising young catchers in Rafael Marchan (MLB.com’s seventh-ranked prospect for the organization) and Rodolfo Duran (No. 19), but it seems unrealistic to expect either of them or Grullon to take Realmuto’s place from the get-go in the event that he departs next winter.
As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd laid out earlier this month, there may be other regulars at the position who hit the market soon. Robinson Chirinos, James McCann, Yadier Molina (though he and the Cardinals are motivated to stick together) and former Phillie Wilson Ramos could become free agents. So could Jason Castro, Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki, among others. There are some options there who at least might make for decent stopgaps, and it’s anyone’s guess who might end up on the trade market, but with no known stars set to become available behind the plate, it should be all the more imperative for the Phillies to lock up their current catcher.
Realmuto, who turned 29 last month, continued to make a case for a sizable contract during his first year in Philadelphia. He paced all catchers in fWAR (5.7) for the second year in a row and slashed .275/.328/.493 with 25 home runs in 593 plate appearances and 145 games. Behind the plate, he gunned down a league-leading 47 percent of would-be base stealers (MLB average was 26 percent) and finished fourth in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.
Between Miami and Philly, Realmuto has shown he’s a well-rounded, star-caliber backstop. As a result, there’s a chance he’ll follow backstops like Joe Mauer and Buster Posey en route to a $100MM-plus guarantee. No matter how much he earns, though, it’s clear the Phillies would have a difficult time replacing Realmuto.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Bryce Harper Discusses Contract Situation Of Phillies, J.T. Realmuto
If you ask Phillies star Bryce Harper, the team needs to do what it takes to retain backstop J.T. Realmuto. Harper discussed that important contractual situation and other topics in a recent chat with Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.
It’s debatable how best to interpret Harper’s comments — prediction or exhortation, or both — but not his underlying desire to see Realmuto stay with him in Philly. Harper lavished praise on Realmuto, saying: “I think the Phillies organization absolutely loves J.T. and our team absolutely loves him as well.”
Harper obviously isn’t negotiating contracts, but with twelve seasons left on his own monumental deal his opinion holds greater weight than those of your average veteran star. He says of Realmuto: “Us as an organization, we have to understand that he’s going to help us in the years to come and if you want the best catcher in baseball then we’ll make that happen.”
“I don’t think anybody should fear us not getting J.T. back,” Harper continued. “I want him more than anything, so I mean it’s something we need to make happen as an organization.”
That’s shy of a promise but something more than a mere expression of personal preferences. Harper did go on to say that the club will “hopefully” find a way to keep Realmuto around, and there’s no particular reason to believe he’s operating on inside information here, but it’s rather interesting to see how strongly he phrased things.
When last we looked, the Phillies and Realmuto had paused their discussions on a pre-season extension. Not long after, a leaguewide moratorium on contract discussions went into effect. Realmuto has reportedly sought a monster contract that would approach or even exceed the record catching deal of Buster Posey.
It’s fair to wonder whether the suspension of the 2020 season will have an impact on negotiations if and when they resume. Realmuto will certainly not have an opportunity at a typical platform year. And it’s anyone’s guess at this point how the 2020-21 free agent market will function.
Phillies Notes: Harper, Dominguez, Realmuto
There’s plenty of negativity on which to dwell in times such as these, but many of the game’s top players continue to their efforts to help those in need and inspire hope. To that end, Bryce Harper announced Thursday (via Twitter) that he and his family are donating $500,000 in partnership with Direct Relief, Three Square Las Vegas and Philabundance to “those in most immediate need” of aid against the spreading COVID-19 virus.
“Now is the time to come together and adhere to the guidelines of medical professionals!” wrote Harper. “We are wishing the best to all with our prayers during this time.” Harper joins Dexter Fowler, Freddie Freeman, Adam Wainwright, Shin-Soo Choo and dozens upon dozens of other big leaguers who have been active in their communities and made charitable contributions in the fight against the pandemic.
A couple more notes out of Philadelphia…
- A decision on right-hander Seranthony Dominguez‘s right elbow is on “pause” for now, general manager Matt Klentak told reporters Thursday (link via Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer). The Phillies’ medical staff recommended Tommy John surgery after an MRI, and Dominguez was slated to receive a second opinion shortly thereafter. However, that recommendation coincided with the implementation of travel restrictions in Dominguez’s native Dominican Republic, and the righty quickly traveled back home to be with family while he was still able. Now, Dominguez’s second opinion and potential surgery are both on hold. Klentak acknowledged that Tommy John is still a definite possibility but stressed that the situation is not black-and-white. “For a lot of players, surgery is the last option they want to consider,” said Klentak. “…Before we go down that road we just want to make sure that everybody’s in agreement that [Tommy John surgery] is the right course of action.”
- Also on hold for the time being are the team’s extension talks with star catcher J.T. Realmuto. The league mandated that extension talks be halted during MLB’s league-wide roster freeze, so the two sides can’t even talk about a potential long-term deal. Klentak emphasized today, though, that he hopes to eventually rekindle talks with Realmuto’s camp. “I think you all know that we love J.T., and he’s a player that we would love to have with us for the long haul,” said the GM. Realmuto was reportedly seeking to top Buster Posey‘s $159MM guarantee and set a new average annual value precedent for catchers — which could’ve meant an asking price upwards of $26-27MM annually over a six-year term. He’s slated to become a free agent in the 2020-21 offseason.
Phillies, J.T. Realmuto Pause Extension Talks
Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto has been an obvious extension candidate for a while, but nothing has come together yet as he nears his final season of team control. With the coronavirus pushing back the start of the season for the foreseeable future, it doesn’t appear a new Realmuto pact will materialize in the near term. The Phillies and Realmuto have hit the pause button on negotiations for the time being, general manager Matt Klentak revealed Tuesday (via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer).
As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained Tuesday, there isn’t a roster freeze or a moratorium on extensions, so teams and players aren’t prohibited from hammering out long-term agreements. On the other hand, with the start of the 2020 campaign off the table for a while, there’s a lot less urgency for the two sides to get something done. The Phillies had been prioritizing a preseason extension for Realmuto, though. Therefore, it stands to reason they’ll get back to work on one when there’s clarity regarding the date of Opening Day, if not sooner.
While Realmuto at least has a contract for this year, players from the Phillies and other teams who signed minor league deals containing opt-out clauses are facing quite a bit of uncertainty.
Klentak spoke on their statuses, saying: “We do not have clarity. There’s a possibility we will have to make some of those decisions this week.”
Philadelphia has a few established veterans who landed non-guaranteed pacts with opt-outs and were competing for big league roles before the postponement of spring training. As Lauber notes, infielders Neil Walker and Logan Forsythe and relievers Anthony Swarzak and Francisco Liriano may all exit their deals Thursday. Speculatively, however, MLB could push the deadlines back for players in those situations.
Latest On Extension Talks Between Phillies, J.T. Realmuto
Extension talks between the Phillies and star catcher J.T. Realmuto have been slow to progress. The 28-year-old (29 next week) lost an arbitration hearing against the Phils last month that set his 2020 salary at $10MM, although Realmuto made clear early in the arb process that he wouldn’t harbor any hard feelings regardless of the eventual hearing’s outcome.
If there’s a reason that talks have moved slowly, then, it could simply be the two-time All-Star’s asking price; MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported on the latest edition of the Big Time Baseball podcast that Realmuto’s camp has been seeking to top Buster Posey in terms of overall guarantee, adding that Paul Goldschmidt‘s extension with the Cardinals has been another talking point (audio link, with Realmuto talk beginning around the 44-minute mark).
There’s a fair bit to unpack there. Back in 2013, Posey signed an eight-year, $159MM extension that was tacked onto his existing one-year, $8MM deal with which he’d avoided arbitration. Somewhat notably, that deal was negotiated by CAA’s Jeff Berry, who also represents Realmuto. Last spring, Goldschmidt signed a five-year, $130MM contract extension, coming out to $26MM per year. A six-year deal at Goldschmidt’s annual rate would put Realmuto just shy of Posey’s guarantee. Topping Goldschmidt’s annual rate by any more than $500K over a six-year term would take Realmuto past Posey in terms of overall guarantee.
Of course, Realmuto is at a different point in his career than either Posey or Goldschmidt was upon inking those respective deals. Posey was a relatively fresh-faced 26-year-old who was fresh off a National League batting title and MVP the prior year in 2012. He’d only just reached arbitration as a Super Two player, and the extension bought out his remaining three years of arb in addition to at least five free-agent years (plus an option for a sixth). Goldschmidt was, like Realmuto, on the cusp of free agency last spring when he signed his contract. However, he was headed into his age-31 season, while Realmuto will play the upcoming campaign at 29.
Realmuto is both closer to free agency than Posey was and younger than Goldschmidt was, so there’s some parallels there. Likening him to Goldschmidt is difficult, though, given that they play different positions and possess different skill sets. Realmuto derives a good bit of value from his elite defense behind the plate, and while he’s an above-average hitter, he’s never been close to the hitter that Goldschmidt has been in his peak seasons. From 2012-18, Goldschmidt posted a combined 146 wRC+ and OPS+. Realmuto, conversely, has a career-high of 126 in both metrics and has only reached that level once (2018).
Over the past four seasons, Realmuto has batted a combined .283/.335/.464 (114 OPS+, 113 wRC+). He also ranks among the game’s premier backstops in terms of pitch-framing, caught-stealing rate and blocking pitches in the dirt. In that time, Realmuto has been worth 15.1 rWAR and 17.1 fWAR.
Historically speaking, it’s tough to find an apt comparison for Realmuto. Russell Martin (five years, $82.5MM) and Brian McCann (five years, $80MM) signed similar contracts in free agency, but both are more than a half-decade old. It’s also arguable that Realmuto is better than both were when they signed. Certainly, he’s younger than Martin was when he signed in advance of his age-32 season. But Realmuto is also decidedly older than either Posey or Joe Mauer was when signing the two largest deals ever inked by a catcher. (Mauer received an eight-year, $184MM contract from the Twins in 2010.) Realmuto seems to lie somewhere between the Martin/McCann and Mauer/Posey levels.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes observed in the first installment of our 2020-21 Free Agent Power Rankings, Realmuto could very well become the first catcher to sign a $100MM+ deal in free agency if he’s unable to agree to terms on a deal. Whether he gets to that point will depend on whether he and the Phillies can find a middle ground and hammer out a new deal that’ll extend beyond his final season of club control.
Philadelphia’s comfort level in negotiations isn’t known, but a lack of progress would seem to indicate that the two sides aren’t that close at the moment. The Phils could certainly fit even a Goldschmidt-level annual value into the books long-term, though. They’re at $204MM in luxury obligations for the 2020 season but will see that number plummet to just under $119MM in 2021, when the luxury tax threshold rises to $210MM. An extension for Realmuto would largely be offset by the departure of Jake Arrieta, whose three-year, $75MM contract expires at season’s end.
Extension Notes: Baez, Minor, Realmuto
Reports back in November indicated that the Cubs had initiated extension talks with star shortstop Javier Baez, but Baez himself said as recently as mid-February that talks on that front have been “up and down.” Asked about the potential of signing a long-term deal in the wake of this week’s seven-year extension for division rival Christian Yelich, Baez told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times that Yelich’s seven-year, $188.5MM extension “doesn’t have anything to do with mine.” Baez acknowledged that he and the Cubs are still “working on” a long-term deal, though there’s no indication that talks have gained significant momentum.
Cubs president of baseball ops Theo Epstein declined to discuss talks with Baez or any other player in detail, merely indicating that the Cubs have tried to sign several players long term. “It’s not worth talking about,” Epstein said of his team’s extension efforts. “If we can get it done, we will. If we can’t, then we’ll move forward. But players don’t have an obligation to sign.” Baez is earning $10MM in 2020 and will be arbitration-eligible one last time next winter before reaching free agency in the 2021-22 offseason.
Some more notes on potential extensions for high-end players…
- Mike Minor has previously made his desire to sign an extension with the Rangers known, but the left-hander told Sam Blum of the Dallas Morning News that “nothing’s happened.” The 32-year-old said he’s not the type to “put a hard deadline kind of thing” on talks before immediately contradicting that statement (to an extent) by adding that he doesn’t want to discuss a new contract during the season. Getting a new deal done before Opening Day would be a “best case” scenario, per Minor, who pitched to a 3.59 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.30 HR/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate in a career-high 208 1/3 innings with Texas in 2019. Minor is owed a $9.83MM salary in 2020 — the final season of a three-year, $28MM deal signed with Texas prior to the 2018 campaign. Minor figures to be one of the better arms available on next year’s market and was an honorable mention on the first edition of MLBTR’s 2020-21 Free Agent Power Rankings.
- The Phillies continue to discuss an extension with free-agent-to-be J.T. Realmuto, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. The desire to get a long-term deal worked out isn’t exactly a well-kept secret, as both sides have made their desire to continue the relationship beyond 2020 known. Zolecki reports that talks between the two sides are moving slowly at this point, however. Realmuto for the first time this spring publicly acknowledged that the two sides are indeed talking but wouldn’t specify beyond that, simply stating that there’s “no update” at this time. Realmuto landed second on the first edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein Tim Dierkes observed that the 29-year-old is one more strong season away from being the first free-agent catcher to ever sign a deal worth more than $100MM.
Quick Hits: Puig, Arbitration Process, Royals, Montgomery
The status of top remaining free agent Yasiel Puig remains up in the air as Spring Training baseball kicks off today. The mercurial and ever-entertaining pugilist got everyday at-bats in 2019 after a couple years of more judicious playing time with the Dodgers – but the results don’t have teams lined up with contract offers. Puig hit .267/.327/.458 across 611 plate appearances with the Reds and Indians with 24 home runs and 84 RBIs. Puig’s singular personality makes his on-field contributions just a part of the overall package, but even after a year of modest production (101 wRC+), Puig ought to be able to find a job somewhere. Latest reports have the White Sox and Rockies as potential landing spots for Puig, per Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101. The Athletic’s Nick Groke downplays the Rockies interest (via Twitter), however.
- CAA agent Jeff Berry lost two arbitration cases this week. Arbitration panels chose the team award amount in cases for J.T. Realmuto and Josh Hader, two transformative performers trying to make their cases to earn beyond the scope of their positional historical comps, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Said Berry of the proceedings, “This was about two guys (Hader and Realmuto) willing to go to the mat to fight for what’s right, and hopefully other players take notice.” It’s possible to look at the results and presume that Berry overestimated his cases for both superstars (within the confines of the current system). It’s surely a fine line between fighting for the best result in an uneven system and politicking for change. Either way, the arbitration panel could use some work. Rosenthal brought a particularly interesting point to the foreground, noting that either the players’ union or MLB “can unilaterally fire any arbitrator at any time.” That’s certainly an inflection point for turning a supposedly unbiased system into one rife for manipulation.
- After trading for Cubs’ swingman Mike Montgomery in July, the Royals believe he can reach another gear when settled into a starting role, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. The Cubs thought the same thing when they acquired Montgomery in the middle of 2016. Though the Cubs never found consistent work for Montgomery in the rotation, he played an important role as a swingman for Chicago. And of course, never forget, he earned the save in game seven of the 2016 World Series. Not for nothing, but Montgomery has desired a rotation slot for some time now, and it could be that the consistency and trust the Royals plan on giving him in his role will have the desired effect – but only time will tell. In 13 starts after the trade last season, Montgomery went 2-7 with a 4.64 ERA/5.23 FIP while striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings.
Realmuto On Arbitration Process, Contract Outlook
Star Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto expressed disappointment today — not with his earnings or with the team, but with the process — after learning he had lost his arbitration case against the ballclub. Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer was among those to collect Realmuto’s thoughts.
Realmuto says he’s “fortunate” to earn a hefty $10MM salary, but said he’s “disappointed in the system more than anything.” He had sought a $12.4MM salary, with his side arguing that he ought to be compared as much to other high-quality position players as to prior catchers.
The hope, says Realmuto, was “to advance it a little bit and do something for future catchers.” Calling the system “outdated,” he criticized the fact that “there’s a separate catchers’ market.”
Realmuto ran into some of the same problems some other players have had with breaking up the strange forms of arbitration. Just as Josh Hader failed to convince a panel that he shouldn’t be undervalued just because he didn’t have a lot of saves, Realmuto struggled to pull away from the gravitational field of prior catcher salaries.
While the Phils will save some cash this year, don’t expect Realmuto to lower his sights when it comes to working out his first multi-year contract. That’s not out of bitterness — Realmuto didn’t express any disdain for the Phillies — but the same business-oriented approach that led him to take his arb case to a hearing. The arbitration process “doesn’t change anything from my outlook,” he said.
So, how likely is a deal? Realmuto says he “can’t predict the future.” He did express an ongoing interest in holding discussions with the team but wasn’t interested in handicapping the outcome. “Whether it matches up or not, that’s to be determined,” says the two-time All-Star.
The big question remains just what price Realmuto will demand — and how far the Phillies will stretch to keep him from reaching the open market. Breen joins Jon Heyman of MLB Network (video link) in suggesting that Realmuto’s camp would like to top the catcher-record $23MM annual value achieved a decade back by Joe Mauer. And Heyman says he expects Realmuto to look for a seven-year term.
It’s frankly tough to imagine the Phillies reaching to that level to lock up Realmuto with a year to go before free agency. Even on the open market, that level of annual salary and length of term seems like a reach for a player who’ll turn 30 before opening the 2021 season. Mauer’s monster deal is outdated, it’s true, but he was at the time a perennial MVP candidate and was also still just 27 years of age. If Realmuto is earn that sort of AAV over a significant term, he may need to log a big all-around season and market his services to all thirty teams next winter.
Phillies Win Arbitration Hearing Against J.T. Realmuto
The Phillies won their arbitration hearing against catcher J.T. Realmuto, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. He’ll earn the $10MM salary figure the team submitted for his final season of club control. Realmuto’s camp at CAA had filed for a $12.4MM sum (as shown in MLBTR’s 2020 Arbitration Tracker).
Realmuto, who’ll turn 29 next month, enjoyed a strong first year with the Phillies in 2019 after being acquired in a trade that sent catcher Jorge Alfaro and top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez to the Marlins. In 145 games and 593 plate appearances, Realmuto slashed .275/.328/.493 with 25 home runs, 36 doubles, three triples and even nine stolen bases. He also paced the Majors with a 47 percent caught-stealing rate behind the dish and posted some of the best framing marks of his career.
The Phillies have made their interest in working out a long-term deal with Realmuto, and he’s voiced an openness if not a desire to remain in Philly for the long haul as well. While some might question whether the loss in an arb hearing will fracture that potential for a contract extension, Realmuto himself previously indicated that he doesn’t view the arbitration process in a negative light. “I know it’s not the Phillies trying to slight me at all,” he told reporters last month. “It’s more the system. There’s no hard feelings there.”
Given general manager Matt Klentak’s repeated praise for Realmuto, it’d be a surprise if the two sides didn’t at least try to work out an extension that’d keep the two-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger and one-time Gold Glove Award winner from reaching the open market next winter. As it stands, though, Realmuto ranks among the top five projected free agents next year.
With the Phillies’ win over Realmuto, teams are up 7-4 against players in the arbitration results in 2020. The Red Sox (Eduardo Rodriguez), Dodgers (Joc Pederson) Twins (Jose Berrios), Braves (Shane Greene), Brewers (Josh Hader) and Rockies (Tony Wolters) have each won arbitration cases that went to trial. The Dodgers also lost a case, though (Pedro Baez). Marlins first baseman Jesus Aguilar, Angels outfielder Brian Goodwin and Astros infielder Aledmys Diaz have won hearings against their clubs as well.