Stark On Pirates, Royals, Bedard, K-Rod
Pirates GM Neal Huntington told Jayson Stark of ESPN.com that he wants “to fight that mentality of, 'We're .500, so we're really on our way.'" Huntington points out that it takes years to develop an elite team and an elite farm system and says one season of .500 ball isn't going to satisfy the Pittsburgh front office. Here are the rest of Stark's rumors from around the league:
- People in the game suggest the Royals' decision to call Eric Hosmer up early may mean they intend to compete in the AL Central this year. Stark hears that the Royals will have money to spend in July if necessary (remember that Gil Meche retired instead of collecting the $12MM he was scheduled to earn).
- The Royals believe Triple-A pitchers Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery are nearly MLB-ready, so GM Dayton Moore may talk about moving Kyle Davies and Jeff Francis within a few weeks. The Royals probably wouldn't get much for Davies, but Francis could draw interest.
- Erik Bedard could be an attractive trade chip this summer, but one NL executive says the left-hander needs to “prove he can log innings.” Tim Dierkes suggested a month ago that Bedard could have lots of appeal at the deadline.
- Left-hander Randy Flores can opt out of his minor league deal on Sunday if the Padres don't call him up from Triple-A. Cory Luebke is the lone left-hander in the Padres' 'pen at the moment, so they could consider calling on Flores instead of cutting him loose.
- Teams are still skeptical of Francisco Rodriguez, despite his 10 saves and 1.10 ERA. K-Rod has walked 10 of the 73 batters he has faced (16 1/3 innings).
- Stark points out that it's been a while since Giants GM Brian Sabean made win-now midseason trades that cost him top prospects.
Moore’s Free Agent Signings Playing Well So Far
There are lots of reasons to be excited for the future of the Royals and one of them will make his Major League debut tonight: Eric Hosmer. The first base prospect will join a team that’s been surprisingly good so far in 2011 (they’re 17-14), one that appears poised to become a playoff contender once its highly-touted prospects become Major Leaguers.
It’s never all about the future, even with rebuilding teams like the Royals. Managers need players to pencil into the lineup and fans need something to cheer for, so general managers sign stop-gap players to represent the big league club while prospects develop.
So far, the four veterans GM Dayton Moore signed this offseason are more than earning their keep. Jeff Francoeur has eight homers and a .305/.346/.602 line (it’s not BABIP-inflated, either) and Melky Cabrera has a .293/.317/.466 line after yesterday’s three-hit game. They've both been pleasant surprises for the league's best offense.
On the pitching side, Jeff Francis has a 5.45 ERA (3.73 xFIP) in 29 2/3 innings with a strong 21K/8BB ratio. Fellow southpaw Bruce Chen has a 3.59 ERA (4.54 xFIP) through 42 2/3 innings with a 24K/14BB ratio. Neither pitcher replaces Zack Greinke atop the rotation, but they’re healthy and productive at the very least. The quartet of Francis, Chen, Francoeur and Cabrera has been worth a combined 2.5 wins above replacement so far, yet another indication that they're producing.
Moore signed the four players for a total of $7.75MM and didn’t give up a single draft pick in the process. It’s a promising development for Royals fans since every homegrown team needs to supplement its core players with free agents at times. Moore’s track record on the free agent market includes its share of blemishes – Jose Guillen for example – but this year his approach has produced strong results for minimal cost.
Make Or Break Year: Jeff Francis
Jeff Francis seemed headed for stardom when, at the age of 26, he won 17 games and pitched in the World Series. This offseason, in his first appearance on the free agent market, he signed with the Royals for $2MM plus incentives. It's a modest guarantee for a pitcher who still has promise entering 2011.
Teams aren't going to commit aggressively to pitchers who post 5.00 ERAs, especially if they aren't far removed from serious shoulder issues. Francis' ERA sat precisely at 5.00 after 104 1/3 innings of work last year, in his return to the majors after missing the 2009 campaign with shoulder surgery. The former 9th overall pick wasn't in position to command much as a free agent, even after a successful return to the major leagues.
But things could be different next offseason. Francis, who just turned 30 in January, is still relatively young. And if he puts together a full season, he'll have an easier time convincing teams that his shoulder is no longer a concern.
Though Francis' 2010 ERA and 4-6 record don't look good, his peripheral stats do. He posted a robust 47% ground ball rate last year, striking out nearly three times as many hitters as he walked. What's more, his FIP and xFIP suggest he was more deserving of an ERA under 4.00. And while the American League has the DH, it doesn't have Coors Field, the only home park Francis has known as a big leaguer.
There are no guarantees for Francis or for his new team. If he encounters more shoulder problems or struggles to surpass last year's innings total, the market for him won't be strong after the season. But a healthy year and a little more luck could position Francis for the big free agent contract he didn't sign this past offseason.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Contract Details: Loe & Francis
Here are some details about a pair of recently signed contracts…
- Kameron Loe's new deal with the Brewers contains $115K in incentives tied to pitching appearances according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. The right-hander will earn $25K for 50 games, $30K for 55 games, $35K for 60 games, $10K for 76 games, and $15K for 78 games. Loe appeared in 53 games for the Brew Crew last season despite not being called up from the minors until June 1st.
- Troy Renck of The Denver Post reports that Jeff Francis' contract with the Royals calls for $800K in incentives based on starts, and another $1.2MM in incentives based on innings pitched (Twitter links). The escalators start to kick in at 15 starts and 110 innings, respectively.
Quick Hits: Carpenter, Martin, Francis, Yankees
Eighteen years ago today, the Angels traded Lee Stevens to the Expos for minor leaguer Jeff Tuss, but Tuss refused to report to his new team. Keith Morrison, another minor leaguer, was included in the deal instead, and Tuss never played affiliated baseball again.
Here are today's batch of links…
- Chris Carpenter told MLB.com's Matthew Leach that he's not worried about his future with the Cardinals. The right-hander is under contract for 2011 with a $15MM club option for 2012, but an extension for Albert Pujols might push the 35-year-old Carpenter out of town if the team needs to shed payroll.
- Richard Griffin of The Toronto Star reports that the Blue Jays offered Russell Martin the same amount of money as the Yankees, but the catcher signed with New York because of a better opportunity to win (Twitter link). Shi Davidi of The Canadian Press tweets that the Jays wanted Martin to catch four times a week as well as play another position.
- Jeff Francis said the Blue Jays did not show any interest in him before he joined the Royals according to Davidi on Twitter. Francis grew up in Canada, but nowhere close to Toronto.
- Chad Jennings of the The Journal News takes a look at the Yankees' multiyear relief contract from the last decade.
- Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that Cardinals GM John Mozeliak has pledged to keep negotiations about a contract extension with Albert Pujols private.
- The Rangers offered Jim Thome more than $4MM before he decided to sign with the Twins for $3MM, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). We knew that Thome turned down more money from Texas, but now we know how much.
- Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts told fans that he has confidence in GM Jim Hendry at today's Cubs Convention according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat (on Twitter).
- Matt Gelb of The Philadelphia Inquirer says this winter's market for free agent relievers has been wonderful for Ryan Madson. The Phillies' setup man is due to become a free agent next offseason after his three-year, $12MM contract expires.
Quick Hits: Votto, Garcia, Francis, Contracts
Some news items to take us into the weekend….
- John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer hears from some player agents that Joey Votto will submit an arbitration number between $8.5-$9.5MM, while the Reds' counter-offer will be around $7MM. Back in August, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith suggested that Votto would ask for $7MM, but since then Votto has added a playoff appearance and the NL MVP Award to his resume. Of course, arbitration talk could be moot if Votto and the Reds agree to an extension.
- The White Sox don't have room in the rotation to bring back Freddy Garcia, says MLB.com's Scott Merkin as part of a reader mailbag.
- The Royals' agreement with Jeff Francis is "the best deal of the winter in free agency," according to Dave Cameron of Fangraphs.
- ESPN's Jayson Stark examines at the high number of expensive and/or long-term contracts signed this winter.
- Lance Berkman talks to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about his offseason training regiment and how much pressure he's putting on himself to perform for the Cardinals. "If I have a repeat of last year I'm probably out of the game," Berkman says.
- The top ten most favorable trades in Reds history are counted down by the Cincinnati Enquirer's Nick Hurm. Recent deals for Brandon Phillips and Bronson Arroyo are included, but it's hard to top the Cincinnati/Houston trade that installed Joe Morgan into the Big Red Machine.
Francis Chooses Royals Over Other Suitors
Jeff Francis says he drew interest from "a bunch" of teams this offseason before agreeing to sign in Kansas City. His suitors reportedly included the Yankees and Rockies, but Francis chose the Royals instead of a team with a legitimate chance to contend in 2011.
As he explained on a conference call with reporters this afternoon, the left-hander chose the Royals because they offered him the opportunity to start and boast the game's most impressive collection of minor league prospects.
"From everything I've been able to learn, they certainly have the talent available," Francis said, comparing the current group of Royals prospects to the young Rockies players who made it to the 2007 World Series. "I've seen [a quick turnaround] happen before and I know it can be done."
Francis turned 30 over the weekend, but it wasn't long ago that he was a top prospect like current Royals lefties Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Danny Duffy and Chris Dwyer. Though he doesn't consider himself much of a mentor yet, Francis knows what it's like to be a top prospect. As the 9th overall pick of the 2002 draft, Francis arrived in Colorado with lots of fanfare.
He leaves the Rockies – the only franchise he has ever known – for the American League. Francis says there could be an adjustment period and that he expects to succeed as long as he throws strikes, keeps hitters off-balance and stays healthy.
Injuries have been a problem throughout Francis' six-year big league career, but he says his left shoulder has been "feeling really good" and that he expects to be ready for Spring Training next month. The left-hander spent the entire 2009 season recovering from shoulder surgery and says he experienced some soreness again at the end of the 2010 campaign.
Royals To Sign Jeff Francis
The Royals have agreed to sign Jeff Francis to a one-year deal, the team announced. ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick first reported the deal and adds that it's for $2MM guaranteed plus $2MM in incentives (Twitter link). The agreement with the Frontline client is pending a physical.
Francis drew interest from at least seven teams this offseason before agreeing to sign in Kansas City. The lefty logged 104 1/3 innings and posted a 5.00 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a healthy 46.8% ground ball rate last year. He missed the entire 2009 season as he recovered from shoulder surgery.
Once the Royals dealt Zack Greinke, their need for starting pitching became even more apparent. Their internal rotation candidates include Kyle Davies, Luke Hochevar, Sean O'Sullivan, Vin Mazzaro and Zach Miner, but GM Dayton Moore needed more starting pitching depth. Kansas City expressed interest in Kevin Millwood earlier in the winter and the Scott Boras client remains unsigned.
With Francis off the board and Carl Pavano nearing an agreement to return to Minnesota, there are virtually no free agent groundballers remaining.
As MLBTR's Transaction Tracker shows, the Royals have signed Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera, traded David DeJesus and Greinke away and made a number of minor deals since the offseason began.
Few Free Agent Groundballers Remain
When MLBTR's Tim Dierkes took stock of the free agent groundballers at the outset of the 2010-11 offseason, the pickings were slim. Fast forward three months and Jake Westbrook, Jorge de la Rosa, Jon Garland, Hiroki Kuroda, Brad Penny and Brandon Webb have all signed.
Carl Pavano, who is reportedly closing in on a deal with the Twins, and Jeff Francis are the only remaining free agent starters (minimum 50 IP) with above-average ground ball rates. Pavano posted a 51.2% ground ball rate last year, while Francis posted a 46.8% ground ball rate.
Though it doesn't seem likely that he'll pitch in 2011, Andy Pettitte posted a respectable 43.9% ground ball rate last year. Jeremy Bonderman, a candidate to replace Pettitte in New York's rotation, also hovered around the league average and posted a 44.7% rate.
Why all the fuss about ground balls? Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has said before that you can't hit a ground ball out of the park. Fly balls are another story, however.
After MacPhail traded for Kevin Millwood last offseason, the veteran posted a career-low ground ball rate and a career-high fly ball rate in hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Otherwise, Millwood's numbers weren't all that different from Jake Westbrook's in 2010. The right-handers, both in their mid-thirties, pitched close to 200 innings apiece with about 6.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 last year.
But Millwood allowed considerably more fly balls than Westbrook, who kept the ball on the ground. The result: 30 home runs allowed by Millwood (Westbrook allowed 20), an ERA nine tenths of a run higher than Westbrook's and, almost certainly, far less guaranteed money in free agency.
Royals Interested In Jeff Francis
The Royals are one of seven teams with interest in Jeff Francis, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). Crasnick named the Nationals, Pirates, Rangers, Yankees and Mets as suitors for the left-hander late last month. Those clubs, along with the Rockies, maintain interest in Francis, Crasnick writes.
Francis missed all of the 2009 season as he recovered from shoulder surgery. He was generally healthy in 2010, when he logged 104 1/3 innings and posted a 5.00 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 for the Rockies.
The Royals expressed interest in Kevin Millwood early in the offseason. Now that they've traded Zack Greinke, their need for starting pitching is even more apparent. Kyle Davies, Luke Hochevar, Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazzaro are internal rotation candidates, but GM Dayton Moore figures to add at least one starter by the time Spring Training begins.