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Joey Estes

Athletics Select Jason Alexander

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The Athletics announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Jason Alexander. In corresponding moves, righty Joey Estes was optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas while left-hander Brady Basso was placed on the 60-day injured list.

Alexander, 32, is known for inspiring many George Costanza GIFs to be shared on social media but is also a baseball player. His major league track record is fairly limited. In 2022, he tossed 71 2/3 innings with the Brewers over 11 starts and seven relief appearances. He allowed 5.40 earned runs per nine, struck out 14.3% of batters faced, issued walks to 8.7% of opponents and got grounders on 50.2% of balls in play.

He hasn’t been in the big leagues since then. A shoulder injury hampered him throughout the first half of 2023. He started a rehab assignment in June but then the Brewers outrighted him off their roster in July. He had a 6.14 ERA in the minors that year and then elected free agency ahead of 2024. He signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox and logged 138 1/3 innings for their Triple-A club with a 4.42 ERA.

He also signed a minor league deal with the A’s ahead of this season. He tossed 9 2/3 innings over five spring appearances, allowing six earned runs. He then reported to Vegas and made one start, tossing 3 1/3 innings with one earned run allowed.

The A’s were in Denver over the weekend, which is always challenging for a pitching staff. Friday’s game went 11 innings with the A’s using five relievers. On Saturday, they used only three, but they all had pitched in Friday’s contest as well. Yesterday, Estes lasted only three innings, which led to Mitch Spence tossing 4 1/3 innings in relief. Overall, the relief group is fairly taxed and Spence is probably going to be unavailable for a few days, so Alexander is up to give them another arm capable of eating multiple innings.

Estes, meanwhile, will look for a reset in Vegas. He posted a 5.01 ERA last year and earned a rotation job out of camp this year. However, his first two starts have led to 12 earned runs allowed in seven innings, so he’s currently sitting on a bloated 15.43 ERA. His optional assignment opens a rotation hole but they may not need to fill it right away. The A’s have an off-day on Thursday and then another on Monday. They then play six in a row before another off-day on the 21st.

After that, they will play 16 straight games, but they can perhaps skate by with a four-man staff for now. It’s also possible that Spence could be given the gig, since he was kept in the majors while Estes was sent down.

As for Basso, he was shut down in early March due to a shoulder strain and started the season on the 15-day IL. His status is unclear but it seems the A’s don’t expect him back before late May, based on this transfer.

Photo courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images

Athletics Finalize Season-Opening Rotation

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The Athletics have finalized their season-opening rotation, reports Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. The five spots will be taken by Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, JP Sears, Osvaldo Bido, and Joey Estes, though not necessarily in that order. Mitch Spence will pitch out of the bullpen, at least to start the season.

There was never much doubt about the first three. Severino has been almost exclusively starter dating back to his 2015 debut. He has had some injury absences and some wobbles in his performance, but he just posted a 3.91 earned run average over 31 starts for the Mets last year. The A’s gave him a three-year, $67MM contract in November, the largest guarantee in franchise history, hoping that he would serve as a veteran anchor for the starting staff.

Springs emerged as a viable rotation candidate with the Rays in 2022, starting the year in relief but eventually posting a 2.46 ERA over 135 1/3 innings. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of the past two seasons but he returned to the Rays last year and had a 3.27 ERA over seven starts. That was enough for the A’s to send three young players and a competitive balance round pick to Tampa in order to acquire Springs and Jacob Lopez. Sears made 64 starts for the A’s over the past two seasons with a combined ERA of 4.46.

The last two spots were a bit more up for grabs. Estes had a decent but not overwhelming season in 2024, his first extended look in the majors. He tossed 127 2/3 innings over 24 starts and one relief appearance with a 5.01 ERA. His 16.9% strikeout rate was well below average but he demonstrated strong control with a 5% walk rate. He’s had a decent spring, with 11 2/3 innings of six-run ball, a 4.63 ERA. He’s only punched out eight opponents but also given out just one walk and hit one batter.

Bido tossed 63 1/3 innings for the A’s last year over nine starts and seven relief appearances with a strong 3.41 ERA. His 10% walk rate was a tad high but his 24.3% strikeout rate was a bit above average. This spring, those rate stats have been similar, as he has struck out 25.4% of batters faced and walked opponents at an 8.5% clip. The 9.24 ERA certainly looks ugly but that’s mostly due to one really bad outing. Against Cleveland on March 7, he tossed 3 1/3 innings and allowed eight earned runs on nine hits, including four home runs, despite notching four strikeouts against just one walk.

Spence was a Rule 5 pick last year and worked out well. He logged 151 1/3 innings over 24 starts and 11 relief appearances with a 4.58 ERA. His 19.4% strikeout rate was subpar but he limited walks to a 6.4% clip and also got grounders at a strong rate of 48.4%. In the small sample of his spring work, his results have backed up slightly. He has only punched out 14% of batters faced while his grounder rate is down to 43.6%.

The spring stats are all miniscule samples but it seems Bido and Estes have edged out Spence for the final two rotation spots. As mentioned, Bido’s 9.24 ERA is rough but mostly inflated by one awful game. Since his strikeout and walk numbers are in line with last year’s, that is probably going to be overlooked as a blip. Estes has broadly posted numbers fairly similar to what he did last year. Spence, meanwhile, has seen his strikeout rate drop from an already subpar level. Again, we’re not talking about meaningful sample sizes here, but the A’s had to make a decision.

A club’s opening-day rosters are only a snapshot in time. Over the course of a long season, things will change and the mix will surely look different over the coming months. That’s especially true on a pitching staff, where injuries are almost inevitable. Spence will be in the bullpen for now but will likely have opportunities to get into the rotation later, as he did last year. The A’s will also have guys like Hogan Harris, J.T. Ginn, Gunnar Hoglund, Ryan Cusick and Lopez jockeying for opportunities. Brady Basso and Ken Waldichuk will start the season on the injured list but could factor into the mix later in the year.

The Athletics’ Rotation Options

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The A’s entered the offseason with virtually no certainty in their rotation. Despite a host of trades aimed at acquiring pitching help throughout the course of their most recent rebuild, lefty JP Sears was the only prospect acquired who’s stepped up, stayed healthy, and pitched well enough to lock down a rotation job. Sears has hardly been an ace, but 64 starts and 353 innings of 4.46 ERA ball over the past two seasons will play. He’s not an exciting arm, necessarily, but Sears looks like a volume-based fourth starter with good command who’ll average 5 2/3 innings per outing and keep his club in the game more often than not. He’s a starting point.

In the months that have unfolded since, the Sacramento-bound A’s have made a pair of meaningful additions. Luis Severino signed a three-year, $67MM contract and immediately became the team’s top rotation arm upon doing so. Left-hander Jeffrey Springs came over from the Rays not long after, in a trade sending righty Joe Boyle, minor leaguers Jacob Watters and Will Simpson, and a competitive balance draft pick back to the Rays. There’s injury risk with both players — Severino averaged 42 innings per year from 2019-23; Springs missed most of 2024 recovering from UCL surgery — but both are quality arms when healthy. Springs, in particular, quietly turned in ace-caliber results in Tampa Bay from 2021-24.

That pair of additions gives the A’s a set top-three in the rotation, albeit somewhat by default at the moment. General manager David Forst has said he’s open to further additions and is hopeful of adding another starter. That comment came just over a month ago, however, and nothing has come to fruition (nor have there been any real rumblings connecting the A’s to available pitchers).

The A’s very much should add to this group if they’re intent on playing the role of a surprise contender, as many of their offseason dealings suggest. There are still several solid veteran arms available, both via free agency and trade. As things stand, it seems likelier by the day that they stick with what they have in-house. Let’s run through the options.

The Rule 5 Favorite

Mitch Spence, RHP: Spence might not have turned many heads with last year’s performance, but there aren’t too many Rule 5 picks who even make it through a whole season — let alone put themselves into legitimate competition for a rotation job the following year. Spence has done just that. The 26-year-old (27 in May) opened the 2024 season in a long relief role but pushed his way into rotation consideration with a nice start. He wound up making 24 starts and 11 long relief outings, working a total of 151 1/3 innings. Spence turned in a 4.58 ERA with a below-average 19.4% strikeout rate but strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.8% and 48.4%, respectively.

Unlike many rookie pitchers, Spence didn’t fade down the stretch; he got stronger. That’s surely due in part to the fact that he tossed a hearty 163 innings of Triple-A ball in 2023 prior to being taken by the A’s in the Rule 5. But Spence came out strong in the second half of the 2024 season, looking like a pitcher who’d found his footing. From July 20 through Sept. 17, Spence made 11 starts with a 3.66 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates didn’t make any huge gains, but he was throwing more sinkers and curveballs and getting far more grounders (and yielding fewer homers) as a result. He allowed nine runs in his final nine innings — a sour ending note — but Spence in many ways looked like a right-handed version of Spears.

What’s left of the Rebuild Arms

Ryan Cusick, RHP: The A’s moved Cusick to the bullpen last year and watched him rattle off a 1.73 ERA and 31-to-4 K/BB ratio over his final 26 innings of the season. He’s likely bullpen-bound again, both due to that success and his struggles in the rotation. He’s unlikely to factor into the starting mix this year, but based on his past usage, we’ll include him in case they reverse course. Cusick had a 4.95 ERA, 20.9% strikeout rate and dismal 15.2% walk rate in 100 innings as a starter in 2023.

Joey Estes, RHP: Estes held a rotation spot the vast majority of the 2024 season, making 24 big league starts in addition to one relief appearance. The results weren’t great, though. The former Braves draftee (acquired alongside Cusick, Shea Langeliers and Cristian Pache for Matt Olson) logged a 5.01 ERA with below-average velocity and subpar strikeout, ground-ball and home run rates. Homers have been a problem for Estes even in the minors, but he’s limited walks nicely and at the very least proven himself to be a pretty durable arm. He still has two minor league options remaining.

J.T. Ginn, RHP: Ginn was the more notable of the two prospects the Mets sent to Oakland for Chris Bassitt a few years back. The former second-rounder posted a 4.24 ERA in 34 innings during last year’s MLB debut but has posted an ERA north of 5.00 in all three of his minor league seasons with the A’s. Ginn averaged what these days is a pedestrian 92.9 mph on his sinker and did log a solid 47.4% ground-ball rate while displaying solid command. Even with the trio of rough minor league seasons an lackluster debut, Baseball America ranks him 11th in the A’s system and calls him a potential back-end starter with a high floor but limited ceiling.

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP: Yet to make his big league debut, Hoglund was the headline prospect in the trade sending Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays. He only has five starts above the Double-A level, coming late last year, and they didn’t go that well. His Double-A work was outstanding, however. The former first-rounder pitched 104 2/3 innings with a 2.84 earned run average, 23.4% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 40% grounder rate and 1.03 HR/9. His stock is down quite a ways since he was the No. 19 overall pick, and he’s unlikely to be in the mix for an Opening Day job — but he could make his debut sometime this summer.

Others on the 40-Man Roster

Brady Basso, LHP: The Athletics’ 16th-round pick in 2019, Basso signed for $75K and has never landed inside the team’s top-20 prospects at Baseball America. They rank him 25th this year after he debuted in 2024 and pitched 22 1/3 innings with a 4.03 ERA, sub-par strikeout numbers, strong command and an average ground-ball rate. Basso dominated Double-A opponents last year before being hit hard in Triple-A and posting middle-of-the-road numbers in a brief MLB debut. Basso, who averaged 92.2 mph on his fastball this past season, still has two minor league option years remaining.

Osvaldo Bido, RHP: Bido made his big league debut as a 27-year-old with the 2023 Pirates and was cut loose after logging a 5.86 ERA in 50 2/3 innings. The A’s signed him to a major league contract last winter, and in 63 1/3 frames he logged a 3.41 ERA with an above-average 24.3% strikeout rate but a rough-looking 10% walk rate. Bido misses bats and induces chases at lower rates than his raw strikeout percentage would suggest. He posted a 4.50 ERA in 10 Triple-A outings last year. He could be a swingman or a fifth starter and has a minor league option remaining.

Jacob Lopez, LHP: Acquired alongside Springs in the Athletics’ trade with the Rays, Lopez will turn 27 in March. He’s a soft-tossing lefty a low arm slot who relies more on deception than on power stuff. Righties have hit him better than lefties but haven’t exactly torched him (.218/.319/.391 in 2024; .197/.316/.343 in 2023). Baseball America ranked him 28th among Rays prospects last year and likened him to a Ryan Yarbrough type of bulk pitcher (behind an opener) or multi-inning reliever.

Hogan Harris, LHP: The A’s took Harris with the No. 85 pick back in 2018. He’s pitched in three Triple-A seasons and posted an ERA north of 6.00 in each. He made his big league debut in 2023 and was similarly rocked for a 7.14 ERA in 63 innings. Ouch. Las year, however, Harris found his most success since he posted a sub-2.00 ERA between High-A and Double-A back in 2022. The 6’3″, 230-pound southpaw posted a terrific 2.86 ERA in 21 big league appearances — nine of them starts — totaling 72 1/3 frames. His 20% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 37.3% grounder rate were all worse than average. Harris thrived in part due to some good fortune on home runs (8.5% HR/FB) and a 78.9% strand rate he’s not likely to sustain.

Down-the-Road Considerations

Mason Barnett, acquired from the Royals as part of last summer’s Lucas Erceg swap, was outstanding in Double-A post-trade and has become one of the system’s top arms. He could debut this summer but isn’t likely to break camp on the club. Jack Perkins, the Athletics’ 2022 fifth-rounder, hasn’t advanced beyond Double-A but posted a sub-3.00 ERA there last year. He’s a fastball/slider-heavy right-hander with shaky command, evidenced by a huge 32% strikeout rate but 11% walk rate last year.

Left-hander Ken Waldichuk and righty Luis Medina are both technically on the 40-man roster, but not for long. They both had Tommy John surgery midseason — Waldichuk in May, Medina in August — and will be on the 60-day IL when the A’s need roster spots. Waldichuk could make it back late this season. That’s unlikely for Medina.

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It’s not necessarily a bad collection of depth arms, and names like Barnett, Hoglund, Ginn and Perkins create varying levels of legitimate MLB rotation upside. However, the Athletics’ current contingent of big league arms carries plenty of injury risk, most notably in Severino and Springs, who both recently had notable arm troubles. One injury in the top three, and the group looks increasingly questionable. Between that and the fact that a number of the 40-man options profile best as fifth starters, it’s understandable that the A’s are open to adding some veteran stability and arguable that they should be aggressively seeking it.

The free agent market still has Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana, Spencer Turnbull, Cal Quantrill and — if the A’s can stomach surrendering another draft pick — Nick Pivetta. The trade market includes Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery Taijuan Walker and (to a lesser extent) Steven Matz as salary dump candidates. Chris Paddack could perhaps be had for a modest return.

Athletics Select Joey Estes

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Sept. 20: The A’s have formally announced Estes’ promotion to the big leagues. Righty Devin Sweet was optioned to Triple-A in order to open a spot on the active roster, while lefty Sean Newcomb has been transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Newcomb was placed on the 15-day IL earlier this week with a left knee strain, and that injury will formally end his season.

Sept. 18: The A’s are poised to select the contract of right-hander Joey Estes, according to Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. The club will need to clear space on both the 40-man and active rosters in order to make room for Estes.

Estes, 21, was a piece of the package that Oakland acquired from the Braves in exchange for first baseman Matt Olson alongside Cristian Pache, Shea Langeliers, and Ryan Cusick. Estes ranks as the club’s #13 prospect per MLB Pipeline, and #21 over at Fangraphs. Though prospect evaluators seem to generally agree that he’ll have a chance to stick in the rotation, a lack of clearly above-average secondary pitches is expected to hold Estes back from becoming more than a back-end rotation option, though his fastball does have impressive movement.

Estes was impressive in 104 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level this year, posting a 3.28 ERA in 20 appearances (17 starts) with a 23.3% strikeout rate against a 7.2% walk rate. Those results have fallen off since his promotion to Triple-A as Estes has posted a less inspiring 5.23 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate in his first 32 2/3 innings at the level, though it’s worth noting that inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League.

Now, Estes figures to get a taste of big league action before the 2023 season comes to a close, setting him up as a potential rotation option for the A’s headed into Spring Training next year. Estes follows right-hand Joe Boyle in being called up for a late-season cup of coffee, as Boyle tossed three scoreless innings on four strikeouts, one hit, and two walks in his big league debut after being selected to the roster himself yesterday.

Sorting Through The Athletics’ Rotation Options

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The A’s formally announced newly signed right-hander Shintaro Fujinami at a press conference last week, where general manager David Forst confirmed that Fujinami is indeed viewed as a starting pitcher. That’s the role he’s held in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the bulk of his career, so perhaps it’s not a surprise, but Fujinami is a hard-throwing righty with command issues, so there was a case to be made for putting him in the ’pen.

Beyond that, the simple fact is that even prior to signing Fujinami, the A’s had more rotation candidates than rotation spots. That’s not an especially common spot for a rebuilding club to find itself, but Oakland has zeroed in on bulk pitching acquisition over the course of its fire sale/teardown. The front office didn’t target exclusively pitchers, but the A’s nonetheless have as many as seven rotation candidates who’ve been acquired via trade within the past calendar year on the 40-man roster.

No team is going to rely on five starters to get through a season, and even getting through a year with “only” seven or eight starters is a luxury to which most teams cannot lay claim in the modern baseball landscape. That said, the A’s stand out as a team that might lean on 15 or more starting pitchers to get through the season, given the lack of established talent, the glut of nearly MLB-ready arms on the roster and the potential for an in-season trade involving just about any likely member of the rotation.

Let’s take a look at what the starting staff might look like…

The Locks

Cole Irvin, LHP: Not many trades that end up sending cash back to a player’s former team work out better than the acquisition of Irvin has for the A’s. It’s been nearly two years to the day since Oakland picked him up from the Phillies in exchange for cash, and he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate.

With four years of club control remaining, it’d be a surprise if Irvin hasn’t at least generated some cursory trade interest this winter, although his glaring home/road splits might not help his cause much. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA at home, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash.

Splits notwithstanding, Irvin is a perfectly viable fourth/fifth starter, but a team that plays its home games in a more hitter-friendly environment might be understandably dissuaded from giving up too much young talent to acquire him. That’s fine for the A’s for now, given Irvin’s remaining club control and the simple fact that they’ll need some dependability on the staff. If he’s pitching well come July, he’ll be a feasible trade candidate (particularly with an arbitration raise looming next offseason).

Paul Blackburn, RHP: It’s easy to call Blackburn, who made the 2022 All-Star team but finished the year with a 4.28 ERA, a token All-Star who was only chosen because every team needs a representative. Perhaps there’s some truth to that, too, but as I noted last summer, Blackburn was a plenty deserving selection and a fairly intriguing trade chip at one point. Through July 2, he’d pitched 87 innings of 2.90 ERA ball with three times as many strikeouts as walks (18.8% to 6.2%) and a strong 48.7% grounder rate. His .280 BABIP and 80.7% left-on-base rate pointed to some likely regression, but based on results alone, Blackburn was pretty good.

Things went off the rails almost immediately thereafter, however. Blackburn tried for several weeks to pitch through pain that’d arisen in his pitching hand, but he was shelled for 21 runs in a span of 14 1/3 innings. He eventually landed on the injured list due to that pain, and testing revealed that he’d torn the tendon sheath in his right middle finger. He was placed in a splint for up to eight weeks, and his season was over.

Time will tell whether Blackburn can replicate his production from the first three months of the 2022 season, but as long as he’s healthy, he’ll be given every opportunity to prove it was sustainable. Blackburn only has three seasons of club control remaining, so if he’s healthy and pitching well this summer, expect to hear his name pop up in rumors.

Newcomers Who’ll Be Given a Chance

Shintaro Fujinami, RHP: The former high school rival of Shohei Ohtani, Fujinami was once lauded as a prospect nearly as much as the current Angels phenom. Fujinami, 28, stepped right from his high school rotation into the rotation of Japan’s Hanshin Tigers, posting a 2.75 ERA in 137 2/3 innings as a rookie in Nippon Professional Baseball. He was a multi-time All-Star and budding phenom in his first four years in Japan, pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA each season. His career has come off the rails since that time, though, and Fujinami comes to Oakland as a hard-throwing but command-challenged project. At 6’6″, he’s armed with a fastball that can reach triple digits and a splitter and slider that have both, at times, made hitters look silly. He’s also been shuttled between the Tigers’ top team and minor league team in NPB for several seasons while displaying troubling walk rates and looking like a shell of the potential star he was early in his pro career.

Drew Rucinski, RHP: In the past five years, the now-34-year-old Rucinski went from nondescript, replacement-level MLB pitcher to a powerhouse workhorse for the KBO’s NC Dinos. Rucinski started 121 games dating back to 2019 and has posted an ERA between 3.17 and 2.93 each season. Along the way, he’s whiffed 21.5% of opposing batters, walked just 6.3% of them and posted a superhuman 66% ground-ball rate. The A’s signed Rucinski for a year and $3MM, with a 2024 club option valued at $5MM. If he can carry over any of that KBO form to the Coliseum, he’ll be a durable source of innings and a nice summer trade chip.

The Out-of-Options Arm Who’ll Make the Staff in Some Capacity

James Kaprielian, RHP: A former first-round pick of the Yankees who was sent to Oakland as part of the Sonny Gray trade, Kaprielian has been injured more often than he’s been healthy. He looked to be turning a corner over the past two seasons, logging a combined 4.16 ERA in 253 1/3 innings over the life of 50 games (47 of them starts). However, Kaprielian had shoulder surgery this offseason, and it’s not clear whether he’ll be ready to go for Opening Day. Manager Mark Kotsay said at the time of Kaprielian’s surgery that the organization expected him to be ready, but Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News recently suggested that the soon-to-be 29-year-old might miss time early in the year. (If that’s indeed the case, he’ll land on the IL alongside rotation hopeful Daulton Jefferies, who’ll miss all of 2023 after undergoing both thoracic outlet surgery and Tommy John surgery.) Kaprielian is out of minor league options, so whenever he’s healthy, he’ll be on the roster either as a starter or perhaps a multi-inning reliever — it’s a just a matter of when that time will be.

Candidates for the Remaining Rotation Innings

(Note: all players in this section have six-plus seasons of club control remaining)

Adrian Martinez, RHP (two remaining option years): One of two players acquired in the trade that sent Sean Manaea to San Diego, Martinez was roughed up for a 6.24 ERA in 57 2/3 innings in last year’s MLB debut. It’s a rough showing, to be sure, but his 20.5% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate both portend better production. Martinez’s 2.03 HR/9 mark was one of the highest in the game, and only four of the 344 pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in 2022 saw a larger percentage of their fly-balls become home runs than Martinez’s 19.7%. That HR/FB rate, in particular, is ripe for positive regression, even before considering the A’s spacious home park. Metrics like xFIP (4.11) and SIERA (4.16), which normalize HR/FB to league-average levels, feel that Martinez was vastly better than his basic earned run average.

Ken Waldichuk, LHP (three option years): A key piece in the trade sending Frankie Montas to the Bronx, Waldichuk held his own in a seven-start debut (4.93 ERA, 33-to-10 K/BB ratio in 34 2/3 innings). His final outing, featuring seven shutout frames against the Angels, was a particularly high note on which to finish. On top of those 34 2/3 MLB frames, Waldichuk logged 95 innings of 2.84 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s arguably the most highly regarded member of this bunch, and he should have multiple opportunities to win a rotation spot over the next 12 to 18 months in Oakland.

Kyle Muller, LHP (one option year): A 2016 second-round pick by the Braves (who traded him to Oakland in the Sean Murphy deal), Muller has at times been ranked among the sport’s 100 best prospects at various outlets, but his stock has dimmed a bit since that time. He’s managed just a 5.14 ERA in 49 MLB innings, but he spent the bulk of his 2022 season pitching to a 3.41 ERA in 134 1/3 Triple-A innings (23 starts). Muller punched out a hefty 29.3% of his opponents. Muller can reach the upper 90s with his heater, draws plus grades on his slider and now that he’s out of a more crowded rotation mix in Atlanta, should have a clear path to innings with the A’s. He’s out of options after the 2023 season, so it’s in Oakland’s best interest to give him a chance sooner than later.

JP Sears, LHP (two option years): Prior to Oakland’s dice rolls on Rucinski and Fujinami, Sears might’ve been a favorite to break camp in the rotation after pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 70 innings as a rookie last year. Acquired in the Montas trade along with Waldichuk, the 5’11” lefty has dominated Triple-A (2.32 ERA in 101 career innings), but a return to that level might be his most straightforward path to starter’s innings early in the season. Sears, who’ll turn 27 in a few weeks, isn’t the prototypical “prospect,” as he doesn’t throw especially hard and has relied more on plus command than overpowering stuff to find success in the minors. It’s a recipe that’s worked well for Oakland pitchers in the past, thanks to the Coliseum’s cavernous dimensions. Even if he doesn’t break camp on the roster, he’ll probably start a fair number of games for the A’s in 2023.

Freddy Tarnok, RHP (two option years): Another piece of Oakland’s return for Murphy, Tarnok has all of 44 2/3 innings above Double-A under his belt (including a tiny two-thirds of an inning MLB debut in 2022). That lack of upper minors experience, coupled with the breadth of options for the Athletics’ rotation, should probably ticket him for Triple-A work to start the season. Several scouting reports on the 6’3″ Tarnok suggest his ultimate home might be in the bullpen, where a fastball that can already reach 98 mph might play up further. He’s never reached 110 innings in a professional season, so in addition to getting some needed reps against Triple-A lineups, he’ll also be looking to build out his workload.

Luis Medina, RHP (one option year): Yet another piece of the Montas return, Medina pitched to a 3.38 ERA in 17 Double-A starts with the Yankees before being blown up for a calamitous 11.76 ERA in seven starts (20 2/3 innings) with the Athletics’ Double-A club. Command has long been an issue for Medina, but he took that concern to new heights with the A’s, walking 22 of the 114 batters he faced following the trade. FanGraphs lauds Medina’s plus breaking ball and elite arm strength, while Baseball America notes that his heater has reached 103 mph in the past. The huge command concerns could lead to a future in the bullpen. Medina isn’t likely to win a starting job early in the season, but the A’s can continue trying to refine his ability to locate the ball in hopes of hitting the jackpot on a starter with this type of repertoire. If not, a move to the ’pen could put him on a fast track to the Majors.

Adam Oller, RHP (two option years): The A’s picked up Oller as one of two arms in the trade sending Chris Bassitt to the Mets. Nineteen appearances later (14 starts), he has a 6.30 big league ERA under his belt with nearly as many walks (39) as strikeouts (46) in 74 1/3 innings. It wasn’t the start anyone hoped for, but Oller posted a solid 3.69 ERA in seven Triple-A starts. Oller always profiled as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter, and even the A’s massive home park couldn’t curtail the right-hander’s home run issues (2.06 HR/9). A bullpen role where he works multiple innings is feasible, as is a return to Triple-A Las Vegas.

Other Recent Trade Acquisitions

J.T. Ginn, RHP: Ginn missed more than three months of the 2022 season with a forearm injury and was clobbered for a 6.11 ERA in 10 starts of Double-A ball when healthy. He came to the A’s alongside Oller in the Bassitt trade and, as a 2020 second-rounder, was the more highly regarded get for Oakland. He’s not on the 40-man roster yet and is still only 23, so there’s plenty of time for him to right the ship, but he’s not on the immediate rotation radar.

Ryan Cusick, RHP: The Braves’ top pick in 2021, Cusick was traded to Oakland in the Matt Olson swap. Like Ginn, he spent much of the season on the injured list (in his case, due to a rib fracture). Also like Ginn, he was hit hard in Double-A when healthy, yielding a 7.02 ERA in 41 frames. He’s not Rule 5-eligible until after the 2024 season, so there’s no rush.

Joey Estes, RHP: Acquired from the Braves alongside Cusick, Estes handled older competition in High-A reasonably well. His 4.55 ERA wasn’t especially eye-catching, but he whiffed 23.8% of his opponents against a strong 7.8% walk rate in 91 innings. Home runs were an issue, but that’s two straight years of nice K-BB numbers against older competition for Estes.

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP: Hoglund would’ve been a top-10 pick in 2021 had he not required Tommy John surgery during his junior year of college, but the Blue Jays still liked him enough to take him at No. 19 and the A’s still liked him enough to make him the headliner in the Matt Chapman deal. Hoglund only pitched eight innings late in the 2022 season as he worked back from that ligament replacement procedure, so he’s nowhere close to the big leagues. His development will be worth keeping an eye on, though. Lefty Zach Logue, acquired alongside Hoglund, has already been designated for assignment, claimed by the Tigers and then passed through waivers in Detroit. He surrendered a 6.79 ERA through 57 innings as a rookie last year and actually posted an even grislier 8.12 ERA in 78 2/3 Triple-A frames.

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Amazingly, even after all of their recent trades of star-caliber players, the organization’s lone entrant on Baseball America’s Top 100 list is catcher Tyler Soderstrom — who, unlike every single one of the names mentioned prior, was drafted by the A’s. Part of that is borne out of the Athletics’ penchant for prioritizing near-MLB players in trades (as opposed to further off, more highly touted prospects), but it’s still rather surprising to see.

Nevertheless, while the A’s aren’t going to win many games in 2023, they’re brimming with young arms who could eventually hold down spots in the rotation. Attrition rate among young pitchers is enormous, and many of these names will be lost to injury, shift to the bullpen, or pitch themselves off the roster entirely. For now, it’ll be fascinating to see how many of Oakland’s young arms can solidify themselves in the big leagues, because their ability to do so (or lack thereof) will be a driving factor in the latest rebuild phase.

Athletics Trade Matt Olson To Braves

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The Freddie Freeman era in Atlanta appears all but over. The Braves announced Monday that they’ve acquired All-Star first baseman Matt Olson from the Athletics in exchange for a hefty package of minor league talent: center fielder Cristian Pache, catcher Shea Langeliers and right-handers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes. While some Atlanta fans may hold out hope that the implementation of the universal designated hitter leaves open the possibility for both Olson and Freeman to coexist on the same roster, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos implied otherwise when discussing the trade with reporters. Anthopoulos held back tears today, calling the Olson trade the hardest transaction he’s ever had to make — a clear allusion to the team’s plans for Freeman (or lack thereof).

Matt Olson | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

As is the case with Anthopoulos, the acquisition of Olson will be a bittersweet one for many Braves fans. While Olson is an elite first baseman with Atlanta roots, it’s long been difficult to fathom Freeman, the 2020 National League MVP, ultimately moving on and signing with a new team. Freeman was a homegrown star in every sense of the word, going from No. 78 overall draft pick in 2007 to a five-time All-Star, league MVP and World Series champion. He’s spent the past 12 seasons in Atlanta, thanks in large part to an eight-year, $135MM contract extension that kept him in Braves gear long beyond his arbitration years. Freeman has become synonymous with the Braves, but it now appears all but certain that this is a changing of the guard.

As far as replacements for Freeman go, it’s tough to dream up a better option than the Atlanta-born Olson, however. Set to turn 28 later this month, Olson is a two-time Gold Glover at first base who just wrapped up a career year that netted him his first All-Star nod. Over the past three years, Olson has cemented himself as one of the premier power threats in the game, swatting 89 home runs and 65 doubles while playing his home games in the cavernous Oakland Coliseum. This past season, Olson shed the “strikeout-prone” label when he cut his strikeout rate from 27.5% in 2019-20 all the way down to 16.8%. He did so while maintaining an excellent 13.1% walk rate and turning in the finest overall season of his career: .271/.371/.540 with a career-high 39 home runs.

Of course, Olson is far more than your prototypical bat-first, slugging first baseman. He’s a two-time Gold Glove winner who happens to lead all Major League first basemen with 34 Defensive Runs Saved dating back to 2017 (despite playing in just 59 games that year). Olson’s 22.8 Ultimate Zone Rating is also tops among first basemen in that span, and his 15 Outs Above Average (per Statcast) rank sixth in that same span. There’s an argument to be made that bittersweet as the change might be for Braves fans, Freeman is being replaced by the most well-rounded, prime-aged first baseman in the game.

The Braves will control Olson for at least the next two seasons, as he’s currently sitting on four-plus years of Major League service time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $12MM salary for Olson this coming season, and he’ll be due one more raise on that sum before qualifying as a free agent after the 2023 season. Of course, the Braves could well look to sign Olson to a long-term deal that would keep him with his hometown club far longer than those remaining two years of control. Atlanta reportedly balked at going six or more years on a potential Freeman extension, but Olson is four and a half years younger than Freeman, which could alleviate concerns about an eventual decline in the late stages of a long-term deal.

Just as it’s difficult for the Braves’ faithful to process the change, Athletics fans are surely reeling from the news as well. While periodic sell-offs of this nature have become second nature for Oakland diehards, the current core is one of the more talented and recognizable groups in recent memory. Olson was a fan favorite and beloved player at the Coliseum, but his departure begins to pave the way for what the A’s hope will be its next core group.

Pache and Langeliers are the true headliners here, though all four prospects ranked among the top 15 or so in the Braves’ farm. Pache, 23, has seen his stock dip a bit since being ranked as baseball’s No. 7 prospect (per Baseball America) in the 2020-21 offseason. That’s due both to a poor showing at the plate in the big leagues and a fairly pedestrian output in Triple-A Gwinnett. Pache received just 68 big league plate appearances in ’21 and batted .111/.152/.206, though it’s tough to glean much of anything from such a small sample. His work in Triple-A was more encouraging but not on par with his strong 2019 campaign in Double-A; in 353 trips to the plate with Gwinnett this past season, Pache batted .265/.330/.414.

Cristian Pache |Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Offense has never been projected to be Pache’s primary selling point, however. That’s not to say he couldn’t develop into a solid big leaguer at the plate, of course, but much of his prospect allure has come from the fact that he’s a plus runner who received 80 grades for his defensive upside in the outfield. Considering the huge space he’ll now have to patrol at the Coliseum, that’s a particularly valuable skill to have. And, if Pache can turn in something close to his lifetime .280/.330./406 slash from the minor leagues, he ought to be able to solidify himself as a highly valuable big leaguer before long. Pache is still near universally regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects.

Turning to the 24-year-old Langeliers, he’ll give the A’s another potential high-end catcher before long. Sean Murphy is the incumbent option there and had a fine season in ’21, but Langeliers was the No. 9 overall pick in 2019 and is fresh off a .256/.339/.494 showing between Double-A and a brief stop in Triple-A. Baseball America ranked Langeliers 54th among all prospects, calling him an excellent defender with a “cannon” arm and above-average power. That he reached Triple-A already in 2021, albeit only for five games, speaks to his proximity to the Majors. Langeliers also ranks as baseball’s No. 70 prospect at FanGraphs and No. 80 at The Athletic.

With Langeliers now perhaps the future behind the plate, Oakland will at least have the ability to more comfortably listen to offers on Murphy if they see fit. Murphy is controlled another four seasons and just won a Gold Glove while popping 17 home runs, but he’ll reach arbitration next year — around the time Langeliers is likely to be ready for an everyday audition at the big league level.

As for Cusick and Estes, both are well regarded in their own regard, even if they haven’t received the type of national attention that Pache and Langeliers have. Cusick was Atlanta’s first-round pick just last summer, joining the organization after posting huge strikeout totals during his sophomore and junior seasons at Wake Forest (37% overall). The 6’6″, 235-pound righty sits in the upper 90s with a heater that has touched 102 mph.

Command was an issue for Cusick in college, but in 16 1/3 innings with Low-A Augusta last season, Cusick punched out more than half of the 67 hitters he faced while issuing just four walks. It remains to be seen whether he can sustain those gains, but there’s huge potential if he can indeed refine his command. If not, a triple-digit fastball and this type of bat-missing ability will surely play up as a potential late-inning reliever. He was generally regarded among the system’s 10 best overall prospects.

As for the 20-year-old Estes, he was the Braves’ 16th-round selection in 2019 but has quickly elevated his profile. Drafted out Paraclete High School in Lancaster, Calif., Estes had a nondescript pro debut that lasted 10 innings in ’19, didn’t pitch due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and then broke out with a monster year as Cusick’s teammate in Low-A Augusta. Through 20 starts, a total of 99 innings, Estes notched a 2.91 ERA with a 32.1% strikeout rate and a 7.3% walk rate. He was an extreme fly-ball pitcher in 2021 (33.2% grounder rate), but that’s not a huge concern for the A’s, given their spacious home environs. Estes’ success came despite being nearly three years younger than the average competition he faced. While he and Cusick are both at least one, if not two full seasons away from making a big league impact, they both add some considerable upside to an Oakland system that was generally regarded among the thinnest in the sport.

“This is the cycle for the A’s,” Forst said back in early November when addressing reports of a likely payroll reduction. “We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.” Those foreboding words have already manifested in the trade of two popular and productive A’s stars, and there’s little sense expecting that Oakland will put a foot on the brakes now. They’ve secured four new pitching prospects and a pair of ballyhooed close-to-the-Majors position players already (Pache, Langeliers), and things are likely just getting started.

As for the Braves, the acquisition of Olson will turn the page on perhaps the team’s most iconic player since Hall of Famer Chipper Jones. The 2020 MVP crowning for Freeman was a high note in his career, but the team’s storybook World Series run, with Freeman at the heart of the charge, will make an even more fitting end to this chapter in the team’s history. Olson will have major shoes to fill at Truist Park, but so long as he carries on at something near the .254/.348/.515 pace he’s tallied over his past 564 Major League games, the Braves will be in good hands.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that trade and all five players involved (Twitter thread).

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