Jose Abreu

The White Sox announced that they’ve agreed to a three-year, $50MM contract with first baseman Jose Abreu. The 32-year-old slugger had previously accepted a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer, effectively making this a two-year, $32.2MM extension.

Under the new contract, Abreu will receive a $5MM signing bonus and an $11MM salary in 2020 before being paid $16MM in 2021 and $18MM in 2022. Four million dollars of that 2022 salary will be deferred, according to the team. Abreu is represented by ISE Baseball.

In signing Abreu to this type of extension, the White Sox are effectively betting (in a fairly substantial manner) on a rebound in his age-33 season next year. That’s not to say that Abreu had a poor 2019 campaign; he batted .284/.330/.503 with 33 home runs and was a decidedly above-average hitter overall. But unlike his 2014-17 production, Abreu’s output in 2018-19 has been more good than it has been great. Park- and league-adjusted measures such as OPS+ (119) and wRC+ (117) agree that he’s been nearly 20 percent better than a league-average hitter in that span, but that’s a far cry from the premium levels at which Abreu produced from 2014-17 — particularly in his brilliant 2014 rookie campaign, when he was arguably the best hitter in baseball.

The open market simply hasn’t rewarded players of this age and skill set in recent years, and it’s unlikely that Abreu would’ve had this type of earning power next winter without returning to his previous levels of excellence with the bat. Given the fact that Abreu has never been rated as a strong defensive first baseman and isn’t likely to make considerable improvements as he progresses deeper into his mid-30s, an uptick at the plate is all the more important.

All of that said, it’s also undeniable that Abreu has emerged as the heart of the White Sox in recent years. The front office, ownership and teammates alike have lauded Abreu for his leadership and the manner in which he mentors young players as they arrive on the scene. He’s also a fixture in the community on the south side of Chicago and is generally beloved by Sox fans. All of that surely factors in when pricing out a deal and is particularly likely to resonate with owner Jerry Reinsdorf, who has been vocal about his desire to keep Abreu in a Sox uniform (as has GM Rick Hahn).

From a financial standpoint, the new structure of the deal does give the Sox a bit of extra breathing room when constructing the 2020 roster. Assuming that signing bonus still counts against the 2020 ledger, they’re now at about $93.7MM in projected salary when factoring in projected arbitration payouts. Parting with either Yolmer Sanchez or James McCann, who was displaced as the team’s starting catcher by yesterday’s Yasmani Grandal signing, would create further flexibility. Sanchez is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $6.2MM in 2020, while McCann’s projection checks in at $4.9MM.

The extent to which Reinsdorf is willing to spend on the 2020 roster isn’t definitively known by anyone outside of the White Sox’ top decision-makers, but they’re currently about $30MM shy of their record Opening Day payroll mark ($128MM in 2011) — a number that could jump to $40MM depending on the fate of Sanchez and McCann. The Sox now have about $46MM in guaranteed money on the books for the 2021 season and about $53MM on the books in 2020

That leaves them plenty of latitude for an additional long-term signing — particularly since key young players like Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez are already locked into long-term deals that provide cost certainty. They’ll still need to budget for pricey arbitration salaries for both Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito beginning in 2021, however, meaning multiple long-term additions will begin to clog up the books in a hurry. But if ownership is willing to push payroll beyond its previously established heights moving forward, it’s certainly plausible that the Sox could have more than one addition up their sleeve between now and Opening Day. The club is hopeful of adding both a right fielder and a starting pitcher to the mix, so further additions do indeed seem likely, although either could come on a shorter-term arrangement.

Jose Abreu will stay with the White Sox rather than test the free agent market, as ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link) that the first baseman has accepted the team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer. The team has since announced that Abreu is indeed returning after accepting the QO.

Abreu stood out as the likeliest player to accept a qualifying offer given his age (33 in January), lack of defensive value and longstanding vocal desire to remain with the White Sox. The market for strict first base/DH type sluggers has deteriorated in recent years, and while some elite hitters (e.g. J.D. Martinez) have managed to take home lucrative multi-year deals in spite of that reality, Abreu is on the old side for a free agent and isn’t quite in that Martinez echelon of offensive output. There’s also a fairly limited number of contending clubs that could be reasonably expected to make competitive bids on a first baseman or designated hitter, which wouldn’t have done the veteran slugger any favors in seeking out a new organization.

That’s not to say that Abreu isn’t a decidedly above-average hitter. He’s fresh off a strong .284/.330/.503 batting line and 33 home runs in 2019. The ChiSox likely feel they can pencil him in for another strong average and 25-plus home runs, as he’s only failed to reach that mark in an injury-shortened 2018 campaign (when he still launched 22 long balls in just 128 games). Abreu has spent six seasons in the big leagues and been an above-average hitter in each of them.

Of course, it should be noted that those 2019 numbers from Abreu came at a time when offensive numbers were at a record high throughout the league. His batting line is clearly stout — but perhaps not to the extent many would think of upon hearing “33 home runs.” By measures like OPS+ and wRC+ which are adjusted based on a hitter’s home park and leaguewide context, Abreu’s 2019 checked in at 17 to 19 percent better output than that of a league-average hitter (117 wRC+, 119 OPS+). That’s a stark contract to Abreu’s utterly dominant rookie season, when he hit .317/.383/.581 and tied Mike Trout for the second-highest wRC+ in all of Major League Baseball.

But for the South Siders, Abreu’s value transcends his pure statistical output on the field. White Sox brass, like Abreu himself, has been vocal about its desire to keep the slugger for the long run due to the fact that he’s emerged as a clear leader in the team’s clubhouse and a integral part of the community on the south side of Chicago. The ChiSox surely valued him more than an outside organization would, and the club surely hopes that Abreu will remain woven into the fabric of the organization for years to come.

The question now, for both Abreu and the organization, is whether they’ll simply head into the 2020 season with the current one-year, $17.8MM arrangement or whether they’ll work out a multi-year deal that’ll keep Abreu around for a longer period while likely lowering his 2020 salary. Abreu was reported to be mulling a three-year offer just hours before the final decision on his qualifying offer was due, but it seems that he and his representatives at ISE Baseball didn’t feel the annual salary on that proposed contract was to their liking. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the two sides are expected to continue discussing two- and three-year scenarios, so it’s certainly possible that today’s one-year agreement is torn up in favor of a lengthier pact at some point between now and Opening Day.