Jose Abreu

Trade Rumors: Abreu, Brewers, BoSox, Twins, Royals, Dodgers, Brach, Treinen

By Connor Byrne | July 22, 2018 at 10:15am CDT

As an established veteran on a cellar-dwelling team, White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu has come up often as a speculative trade candidate, but the club’s “strongly inclined” to retain him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The 31-year-old hasn’t exactly boosted his trade value this season, having hit a career-worst .250/.312/.435 (101 wRC+, compared to 139 from 2014-17) and accounted for a replacement-level WAR across 407 plate appearances. Regardless of whether the White Sox keep Abreu, he’s slated to go through arbitration once more over the winter. In the meantime, he’s on a $13MM salary this season.

More trade-related items as the countdown to the July 31 deadline continues…

The Brewers’ interest in Royals second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield has been known for a while, and Robert Murray of The Athletic (subscription required) explores the possibility of Milwaukee acquiring him. The Brewers haven’t pursued Merrifield as aggressively as they did during the winter, according to Murray, who hears he’d be rather expensive to pry out of Kansas City. Landing Merrifield would require “three higher-end prospects, at least,” an executive told Murray. Milwaukee happens to have a quality farm system, though it’s unlikely to trade its best prospect – second baseman Keston Hiura – suggests Murray, who goes on to run down farmhands the team could deal for Merrifield. The 29-year-old Merrifield has upped his stock during a terrific season in which he has hit .305/.375/.429 with five home runs and 17 steals through 412 PAs. Adding to his appeal, Merrifield’s on a near-minimum salary this season and won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 campaign.
The Red Sox sent a high-level executive, senior vice president of baseball operations Frank Wren, to scout the Royals–Twins game on Friday, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. It’s unclear which players Wren focused on, though it’s worth pointing out that Boston has shown reported interest in both Merrifield and Royals teammate Mike Moustakas. And with the Twins likely to sell at the deadline, Buster Olney of ESPN doesn’t rule out the Red Sox pursuing second baseman Brian Dozier.
Along with Baltimore’s closer, Zach Britton, the reliever-needy Dodgers are interested in Orioles setup man Brad Brach, according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. The Dodgers have also scouted the Marlins and Rays and “monitored” Athletics closer Blake Treinen, Shaikin adds, though it seems improbable he’ll go anywhere with the A’s making a major push for a playoff spot. Conversely, as a pending free agent on a rebuilding team, the 32-year-old Brach is a good bet to end up in another uniform in the coming weeks. The problem for Baltimore is that Brach is in the midst of his least effective season in a while, with a 4.34 ERA/3.61 FIP and a 4.34 BB/9 in 37 1/3 innings. On the positive side, Brach has struck out upward of nine hitters per nine and generated swinging strikes at a solid clip (13.2 percent).

All-Star Notes: Red Sox, Lowrie, Markakis, Abreu

By Jeff Todd | July 17, 2018 at 3:10pm CDT

While the focus this time of year is obviously on trade possibilities, the All-Star break also provides reporters an opportunity to ask players about their own long-term preferences. It’s not surprising, then, that we’ve seen a run of stories on players who won’t be traded away, but also aren’t under long-term control.

The Red Sox have certainly enjoyed an excellent opening run, led by excellent performances from a number of core players. It’d be a surprise to see any mid-season dealmaking, but the club might be expected to look into some new arrangements in the offseason to come. Closer Craig Kimbrel represents the most pressing situation, since he’ll be a free agent. As Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports, Kimbrel says he and his family would “love to stay” but certainly indicated he’ll wait to see what the market bears. Though he only arrived a few months ago, slugger J.D. Martinez says he’d be open to exploring a new pact that might eliminate some of his opt-out opportunities, as he tells Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Of course, there’s plenty of time left before he’s scheduled to have a shot at returning to the open market (post-2019), and there’s reason to wonder whether the organization really would want to pay up to enhance its control rights. In between those two players in terms of contract situation is staff ace Chris Sale. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe argues that, with one more option year left to go, the Boston organization ought to look into locking up the 29-year-old for the foreseeable future.
It seemed at one time that infielder Jed Lowrie would feature as a trade chip, but the surging Athletics obviously now have no plans to sell. Instead, attention has turned to the question whether he might end up returning to Oakland at season’s end. As John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, Lowrie says the front office has “expressed interest this time” around — unlike the prior time his contract with the A’s was nearing an end. Lowrie, a first-time All-Star in his 11th MLB season, indicated that he’d be open to working something out to return for a sixth campaign in Oakland, though it’s not clear whether any effort at mid-season talks will be made.
It’s a similar story for Braves outfielder Nick Markakis, another respected veteran who finally earned an All-Star nod. As Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, Markakis indicated he expects to keep playing after his contract runs out this fall — which is no surprise given his strong performance thus far. Whether that’ll take place in Atlanta or elsewhere, though, isn’t yet on his mind. “We’ll deal with that stuff in the offseason when the time comes,” says the veteran.
Those sorts of questions have long floated around White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, who stands out as a quality veteran on a very youthful roster. As Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times reports, Abreu says he hopes to have a chance to win before his time is up in Chicago. His focus is on “just trying to enjoy the moment with the team” at the moment, but the slugger also indicated that he’s at least open to spending more time on the South Side. “I’d like to stay with this team,” says Abreu. “And I’m going to do all in my power to make this team good as soon as possible.”

Cafardo’s Latest: Abreu, Astros, Ramos, Nats, A’s, Treinen, Orioles

By Connor Byrne | July 7, 2018 at 5:50pm CDT

The Astros have shown interest in White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Abreu carries a stronger track record than Houston first baseman Yuli Gurriel and designated hitter Evan Gattis, either of whom could lose playing time to Abreu if the reigning world champs acquire him. However, in 2018, both Gurriel and Gattis have offered superior production to Abreu, a fellow right-handed hitter who has batted a disappointing .260/.316/.451 through 373 plate appearances. The 31-year-old Abreu also carries a high price tag, as he’s on a $13MM salary this season and should land a raise over that figure next winter during his final trip through arbitration. But despite the veteran’s cost and the fact that the White Sox are rebuilding, they have thus far been unwilling to move Abreu, an important mentor to their array of young players.

Here’s more from Cafardo:

The Nationals recently sent special assistant Dan Jennings to watch Rays catcher Wilson Ramos, Cafardo reports. The Nationals are already familiar with Ramos, who played with the team from 2010-16, and the pending free agent figures to end up with either them or another club by the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. After a mediocre 2017, the 30-year-old Ramos has rebuilt his stock with a .287/.338/.460 line in 293 PAs. Those numbers are far better than the production Nationals catchers have offered. Washington’s backstops have combined to hit a league-worst .185/.278/.265 in 338 trips to the plate, thus contributing to the team’s five-game deficit in the NL East.
The Athletics are suggesting to teams that closer Blake Treinen isn’t available for trade, though clubs are wondering if that’s just a ploy to drive up his price, per Cafardo. If the A’s expect to push for a playoff spot this year and next, they may well keep Treinen, who’s under control through 2019 for affordable prices. Treinen has been an integral part of this year’s Oakland team, which is a solid 48-40 and sits 7 1/2 games back of a wild-card spot. Across 42 2/3 innings, Treinen has logged a near-spotless ERA (.84) with 10.97 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 and 22 saves in 24 opportunities.
Unsurprisingly, the Orioles “would love” to land Indians catcher Francisco Mejia in a potential Manny Machado trade, Cafardo writes. Cleveland has reportedly shown strong interest in Machado, though it’s unknown if the Tribe would be willing to give up Mejia at all – let alone for a rental. The 22-year-old Mejia ranks as the Indians’ top farmhand in the estimation of MLB.com and Baseball America, both of which regard him as one of the game’s 25 best prospects.
More on Machado, who could wind up in a package with teammate and fellow free agent-to-be Zach Britton, Cafardo hears. As an accomplished reliever, Britton may be a fit for Cleveland, whose bullpen has been among the majors’ weakest this year. It’s unclear how much trade value Britton has, though, given that he fell off somewhat last year after an incredible 2016 and hasn’t been good this season in his first action since suffering a ruptured Achilles over the winter.

Cafardo’s Latest: Peavy, Abreu, Moose, Braves, Fish, BoSox, Rangers

By Connor Byrne | May 20, 2018 at 4:59pm CDT

Free-agent right-hander Jake Peavy was reportedly going to throw in a scouting showcase around May 1, but that hasn’t happened yet, the soon-to-be 37-year-old tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Nevertheless, Peavy is still aiming to return to the majors, where he last pitched in 2016 with the Giants. “In the next three weeks I’ll make a decision,” said Peavy, who added that he wanted to consult with his four kids before attempting a comeback. Continued Peavy: “I feel that I can help a team in the second half. My arm feels great. I’ve had a chance to rest it so I feel as strong as I’ve felt in a long time. I’ve kept in shape. I throw bullpens. So I’m hoping that once I make the decision to do it, that the interest will be there.” Notably, the onetime NL Cy Young Award winner realizes he’d “have to sign an incentive-based deal” and work his way back to MLB via the minors.

Here’s more from Cafardo:

First baseman Jose Abreu is “likely” to be the next player the White Sox trade, Cafardo writes. Even though the White Sox are rebuilding, they’ve continued to hold on to the 31-year-old Abreu, in part because he has emerged as a key mentor to their young players. Abreu would figure to garner interest from contenders, though, considering he’s having another big offensive season (.294/.366/.518 with eight HRs in 183 plate appearances) and under wraps through 2019.
“There’s a growing feeling among talent evaluators” that the Braves will go after Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, according to Cafardo. That may have become even more likely Sunday when the Braves ended their brief Jose Bautista experiment, though they’re bent on giving Johan Camargo a serious look at third base for the time being. Regardless, Moustakas does seem like a strong bet to finish the season outside of Kansas City, which is rebuilding and doesn’t have him under contract beyond this season (there is a $15MM mutual option, however). Moustakas is making a very reasonable salary ($5.5MM) and enjoying a terrific year at the plate, having slashed .294/.333/.528 with 10 long balls in 195 PAs.
The Marlins expect reliever Kyle Barraclough to generate interest prior to the deadline, Cafardo reports. The 27-year-old is amid his fourth straight high-strikeout/high-walk/low-ERA season, with 11.32 K/9, 5.23 BB/9 and a 1.74 ERA through 20 2/3 innings. Adding to his appeal, Barraclough’s under control through 2021 and making just over $1.1MM this season.
The Rangers had interest in Red Sox utilityman Blake Swihart as recently as a week ago, per Cafardo, who notes “that avenue may still be available.” A catcher by trade, Swihart’s out of options and doesn’t seem to have a place on this year’s Red Sox, which led his agent to request a trade earlier this week. Still, Boston’s unsure about parting with the 26-year-old, Cafardo suggests. If the Sox do explore a deal, though, there are other fits besides Texas, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out Wednesday.
More on the Red Sox, who’d “likely want bullpen help and/or a prospect” in a trade for center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., Cafardo observes. Boston spurned teams’ interest in Bradley in the offseason and has since gotten off to one of the majors’ best starts, though the 28-year-old hasn’t contributed to that as much as expected. Bradley has posted an ugly .165/.267/.252 line in 146 trips to the plate, leading Alex Speier of the Boston Globe to wonder if the Red Sox could consider demoting him despite his $6.1MM salary when second baseman Dustin Pedroia comes off the disabled list soon. While it’s a long shot, Speier concedes, a Bradley-less Red Sox team would still feature the enviable outfield trio of Mookie Betts in right, Andrew Benintendi in center and J.D. Martinez in left.

Central Notes: Abreu, Twins, Cardinals, Tigers, Royals

By Connor Byrne | May 12, 2018 at 6:31pm CDT

Even though the White Sox own the majors’ worst record (9-26), first baseman Jose Abreu tells Scott Merkin of MLB.com that he supports Chicago’s rebuilding effort and would like to remain with the team for the rest of his career. “Of course, there is not any doubt about it,” the 31-year-old said through an interpreter. “My mom and dad, they taught me to always be grateful, and I’m really grateful for this organization because of all the things they have done for me and the opportunities they gave me.” The White Sox are the only major league franchise Abreu has known since emigrating from Cuba in 2013 for a six-year, $68MM guarantee. Since then, not only has Abreu delivered positive on-field results for the Sox, but he has emerged as a key leader for the young team, according to vice president Ken Williams. “He’s like having an extra coach on hand,” said Williams. “I cannot overstate the quality person that he is. I hope he really hears and understands how we feel about him.” If the White Sox continue to elect against trading Abreu, they’ll soon have a decision to make on whether to extend him. Although Abreu only has one more year of arbitration eligibility left after the current season, Merkin suggests there haven’t been contract talks between him and the club.

More from the game’s Central divisions…

Twins right-hander Ervin Santana seems to be progressing toward his 2018 debut. Santana, out since undergoing finger surgery in February, is slated to make his first rehab start May 26, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press tweets. It’ll be a four-inning, 60-pitch appearance for Santana. Before that, he’ll throw live batting practice Monday and then make an extended spring training start May 21. Meanwhile, catcher Jason Castro will head to Colorado for a second opinion on his injured right knee, Berardino adds. Castro went on the disabled list last weekend with a torn meniscus.
The Cardinals have activated left-handed reliever Brett Cecil from the disabled list and placed fellow southpaw Tyler Lyons on the DL with a mild back strain, per Joe Trezza of MLB.com. Cecil only made one appearance this year, on Opening Day (March 29), before landing on the shelf with shoulder soreness. Cecil, who’s in the second season of the four-year, $30.5MM deal he signed with the Cards in November 2016, logged a 3.88 ERA with 8.82 K/9 against 2.14 BB/9 across 67 1/3 innings in 2017. Lyons was also an effective piece of the Redbirds’ bullpen last year, though he began this season with an ugly ERA (6.17) in 11 2/3 frames prior to his DL placement.
Veteran reliever Louis Coleman is back in the majors after the Tigers selected his contract Saturday, though he may not be in this position if not for his college coach, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com relays. A “frustrated” Coleman was unable to find a job in the offseason until he spoke with Paul Mainieri, whom he played under at LSU, a couple weeks before spring training began. Mainieri then called his friend, Tigers general manager Al Avila, who signed Coleman to a minors pact Feb. 23. “I guess they had an opening (in spring training), I don’t know. But if it wasn’t for coach and Al, I don’t know if we’d be standing here,” said the 32-year-old Coleman, who recorded a 2.40 ERA in 15 Triple-A innings before his promotion.
Royals minor league outfielder Bubba Starling could miss upward of a month with an oblique strain, Rustin Dodd of The Athletic tweets. As Dodd notes, oblique strains have been a consistent problem for Starling, a former top prospect who still hasn’t gotten to the majors since the Royals chose him fifth overall in the 2011 draft. The 25-year-old struggled to produce at Triple-A this season before his injury, evidenced by a .257/.350/.314 line and no home runs in 41 plate appearances, though he did draw five walks against just six strikeouts.

White Sox Notes: Castillo, Abreu, Smith, Santiago, Davidson

By Mark Polishuk | March 20, 2018 at 11:26pm CDT

“I see as much young talent here as I’ve ever seen anywhere,” White Sox catcher Welington Castillo told Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times about his new team’s spring camp, and that includes Castillo’s previous stint on the north side of Chicago. “In 2013, when I was with the Cubs, we weren’t even close to what we’ve got here,’’ Castillo said. ‘‘In 2014, [the Cubs] started changing; you started to see more about the big prospects. But they still weren’t really coming to the big leagues. The White Sox, our prospects are already here, and they’re building together. This organization is still a step ahead of the Cubs [in 2014].” It remains to be seen if the current Sox core can possibly match up with what the Cubs have accomplished over the last three seasons, though given the amount of top-tier young players the White Sox have acquired in their rebuild, there is no shortage of promise for a quick return to contention for the franchise.

Here’s more from the White Sox camp…

Both Jose Abreu and Kevan Smith made early exits from today’s Cactus League game with the Rangers, as MLB.com’s Alyson Footer and others reported. Left hamstring tightness forced Abreu out of the game after two innings, while Smith suffered a left ankle sprain in the fifth inning. More will be known about both injuries tomorrow, though manager Rick Renteria doesn’t believe either issue is particularly serious. X-rays on Smith’s ankle already came back negative, yet any missed time could hurt the catcher in his battle with Omar Narvaez for the backup catcher’s job behind Castillo. Abreu’s roster spot obviously isn’t in question, though any type of injury to their best hitter is worrisome for the White Sox.
Renteria hinted that Hector Santiago may have won himself a 25-man roster spot, telling The Athletic’s James Fegan (Twitter link) and other reporters that he likes to use a left-hander (like Santiago) in relief of a right-handed starter, and noted Santiago’s ability to provide multiple innings out of the pen. Chicago signed several veteran relievers to minor league deals this winter, though Santiago is standing out from the competition with excellent spring numbers, posting an 0.75 ERA over his first 12 innings. Santiago’s minors contract with the White Sox will pay him $2MM should he crack the Major League roster.
Matt Davidson is “not paying attention to anything else other than really my contact rate” this spring, the third baseman tells James Fegan of The Athletic (subscription required). Davidson hit 26 homers in 443 PA last season, but contributed little else besides that pure power, with an overall .220/.260/.452 slash line and a whopping 165 strikeouts against just 19 walks. Davidson knows he has to become a more well-rounded player in order to stick with the Sox given the strong competition for jobs in camp and during the regular season.

AL Central Notes: Royals, LoMo, Moose, Twins, Sano, Abreu

By Jeff Todd | February 20, 2018 at 3:55pm CDT

For the Royals, replacing Eric Hosmer likely won’t mean paying another veteran significant dollars to line up at first base. As Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star writes, the current expectation is that Logan Morrison is an “unlikely” target. GM Dayton Moore tells Dodd that while the organization has long “admired” Morrison’s ability, the “economic part of it … is very real to us.”

It also does not seem that the Royals will pivot from Hosmer to fellow former K.C. star Mike Moustakas. Dodd runs down some of the team’s internal options at the infield corners and the organization’s current thinking as it bids adieu to Hosmer. While it’s largely of historical interest at this point, it’s also worth noting a recent report from Robert Murray of Fan Rag suggesting that Kansas City never dangled more than five years and around $100MM to Hosmer. While multiple prior reports had pegged the organization’s interest in the seven-year range, that lesser price point would certainly have left Hosmer with an easier decision.

AL Central Notes: Abreu, Kipnis, Moustakas, Cuthbert, Sano

By Kyle Downing | February 18, 2018 at 11:45pm CDT

White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu shed over ten pounds already this offseason, James Fegan of The Athletic writes. The weight loss comes thanks in part to a diet with a lot more fish and white meat. But aside from eating healthier, the Cuban native has another, more surprising goal: to steal more bases. Abreu said he’ll be asking for the green light from manager Rick Renteria more often. “Just because I think I can do it,” he added. “I really believe I can do it and I like the challenge. I like to challenge myself and I think that’s a good challenge for me and I’m ready for it.” Renteria laughed a bit at the idea, but he did say that if Abreu ends up being able to take a base, “that would be awesome.” However, the skipper suggested that he’s more concerned about making sure his first baseman can swing the bat and catch a ball first. A full read of the piece provides some insight not only into the plans of Abreu and Renteria headed into 2018, but into their personalities as well.

More notes about American League’s midwestern teams…

Indians manager Terry Francona held his individual meetings with position players on Sunday morning, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com reports. One of those meetings was with Jason Kipnis, who’s faced a lot of uncertainty this offseason as to what position he’ll play in 2018 and which team he’ll be playing it for. Kipnis apparently told Francona he’d do whatever he was told to do, but Francona felt it was better for the two to make the decision together. “Because of who he is and what he’s accomplished, and what he can accomplish, I think it’s better if we do it together.” Francona said. “Asking somebody to do something they don’t think they can do isn’t going to help us.” It was reported earlier this offseason that the Tribe planned to move Kipnis back to second base, and Francona confirmed those intentions on Sunday by telling reporters that “he’s a second baseman… the idea is for him to play second.”
In line with reports from earlier today, it seems as though the Royals are prepared to move on from Mike Moustakas. Jeffrey Flannagan of MLB.com shares some eye opening notes from an impromptu news conference with GM Dayton Moore this afternoon, including a quote about third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert. “We like [Cuthbert] a great deal,” Moore said. “We feel it’s his time to become a consistently producing player. We also have Hunter Dozier, who can play third and corner outfield, and first base — he has some versatility.” Moore also expressed a desire to build the club’s farm system back to what it was in 2010-2011, also noting that “That period of time [of high payrolls], that phase of who we are, is over.” All of these points cast extreme doubt on any chance of Moose coming back to Kansas City.
Twins slugger Miguel Sano appears healthy, as Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports that he’s working out in the Dominican Republic and “doing all baseball activities.” He’ll reportedly be eased into games, however, and there’s one more unresolved item that could affect Sano’s ability to take the field: he has yet to be interviewed by MLB about his alleged sexual assault of a photographer. Sano has vehemently denied the accusations, and there’s been little in the way of public updates on the situation. Still, there could yet be ramifications depending on the findings from a potential interview or investigation.

Latest On Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia

By Steve Adams | January 29, 2018 at 11:16am CDT

While things can always change with one phone call or text, White Sox GM Rick Hahn suggested at SoxFest over the weekend that he expects both Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia to open the year with the ChiSox (link via MLB.com’s Scott Merkin).

“…[W]e are now basically done with an offseason during which we were able to understand what their value is out in the market,” said Hahn. “We made the assessment we were much better served as an organization to have both with us to start the 2018 season.”

Entering the offseason, both Abreu and Garcia stood out as plausible trade candidates, as each was coming off a terrific season with just two years of club control remaining. The Sox haven’t deviated much from their rebuilding direction, though the addition of Welington Castillo on a two-year, $15MM deal was more focused on near-term improvement than any of the moves the Sox made last offseason (or than any that they’ve made since).

Both Garcia and Abreu had their names bounced about the rumor circuit a bit earlier this winter, with Garcia being prominently connected to the Athletics and also speculatively linked to the Cardinals, among others. Abreu had his name connected to the Red Sox, Rockies and Cardinals himself, though it never seemed that talks between the White Sox and any interested party advanced especially far down the road to a deal.

Hahn, unsurprisingly, was mostly vague when speaking about the possibility of either player remaining with the team beyond the remaining two years of arbitration each has prior to free agency. The GM cited Miguel Gonzalez, whom the Sox recently re-signed, as evidence that players can return to an organization even after testing the free-agent waters and also indicated that it’s possible the Sox “figure it out sooner,” in reference to a potential long-term deal for Abreu and/or Garcia.

Abreu and the Sox have already avoided arbitration for the coming season by agreeing to a one-year, $13MM contract. Garcia figures to agree to a one-year deal at some point, though it may require a hearing; he filed for a $6.7MM salary against Chicago’s $5.85MM (as can be seen in MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker), and the two sides have yet to reach an agreement. While those hearings can be a contentious process at times, Garcia didn’t sound especially concerned about the matter (link via CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine).

“Yes for sure,” Garcia said when asked if he wants to remain with the Sox. “I want to play baseball here in Chicago. As a player, you never know what is going to happen. My job is to continue to work hard and get better.” Garcia voiced praise for manager Rick Renteria as well, Levine notes, though he also indicated that he doesn’t believe there’s been any talk of an extension between his agents and the White Sox’ front office. Such matters are often handled in Spring Training, though, and now that the Sox are more in tune with the market value of both Garcia and Abreu in trade talks, it stands to reason that they’ll also touch base with their camps to gauge the value of brokering a longer-term pact beyond the 2020 season.

White Sox, Jose Abreu Avoid Arbitration

By Steve Adams | January 12, 2018 at 1:42pm CDT

The White Sox avoided arbitration with slugging first baseman Jose Abreu today, agreeing to a one-year deal worth $13MM (as first tweeted by FanRag’s Robert Murray). Obviously, Abreu’s contract lands well shy of the hefty $17.9MM projection generated by the arbitration projection model of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, as well as the $17MM figure that Swartz referenced in a more in-depth breakdown of Abreu’s arbitration case.

Abreu has been a thorn in the side of MLBTR’s projection model for two years now, as the unique nature of his contract does not appear to be properly contextualized by the algorithm driving our model. Abreu originally agreed to a six-year, $68MM contract with the White Sox four years ago, but that deal allowed him the right to opt into arbitration once he was eligible. Abreu exercised that right last offseason, and we explored some of the intricacies of that decision at the time. Notably, the CBA offered little clarity in terms of how Abreu’s annualized signing bonus should be treated within the confines of the arbitration system.

Speculatively speaking, that could once again be the case in 2018, as it’s surprising that Abreu would receive a raise just north of $2MM after a season in which he posted a terrific .304/.354/.552 batting line, 33 homers and 102 RBIs over the life of 675 plate appearances. It should be noted that even with a relatively modest raise, Abreu is coming out ahead of the figures he’d have earned had remained on his guaranteed salaries rather than opting for arbitration. Abreu would’ve earned $10.5MM in 2017, $11.5MM in 2018 and $12MM in 2019, so he clearly made the proper decision when opting into arbitration, even if the system treats him as an atypical case.

Whatever the reason, the $13MM salary represents one of the more substantial misses our projection model has ever forecast. As for the Sox, they’ll once again enjoy the presence of one of the American League’s top hitters in the middle of their order as well as a respected and highly valued presence in their clubhouse. Abreu’s name has been oft-mentioned in trade rumors, though the ChiSox are reportedly loath to move him. He’s controlled for another two seasons.

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