Jose Abreu

Arbitration Breakdown: Marcell Ozuna and Jose Abreu

By Matt Swartz | January 10, 2018 at 6:38pm CDT

Recently, I have been discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases as part of MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Full arbitration projections for 2018 are also available, for those interested.

Before Marcell Ozuna reports for his first Spring Training as a Cardinal, he will have to start the potentially uncomfortable process of salary arbitration with them. Ozuna has quite a resume to boast, which is part of what made him so attractive to the Cardinals in the first place. He hit .312 with 37 home runs and 124 RBIs last year, giving him few comparables among second-time arbitration-eligible players.

My model projects a substantial raise for him of $7.4MM — all the way to a $10.9MM salary. This may be high, given the lack of exact historical comparables and the potential for an arbitration process to discount some of the home runs hit in a very high league home run environment (2017 set a record). That said, it still suggests that Ozuna is going to get a large raise anyway.

Jose Abreu had a comparable season, and his projection is accordingly similar. He hit .304 with 33 homers and 102 RBIs, making the primary difference in their cases the lower RBI total for Abreu. The White Sox slugger is projected for a $7.1MM raise instead of Ozuna’s $7.4MM, but he starts from a higher base salary and is therefore projected to land at $17.9MM.

No other players in the past five years have entered arbitration with the elusive .300/30/100 slash line. However, several players did so in the prior five years, including Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012 (.321/32/105), Josh Hamilton in 2011 (.359/32/100), Matt Holliday in 2008 (.340/36/137) and Miguel Cabrera in 2008 (.320/34/119). Those players got raises between $5.65MM (Ellsbury) and $3.9MM (Cabrera), although both Hamilton and Holliday got raises above $5MM, thus making Cabrera the exception.

It seems quite likely that Ellsbury, with 39 stolen bases to Ozuna’s one stolen base, would have a better case. However, the fact that Ellsbury’s case is six years old could put them closer together and could even put Ozuna and Abreu ahead. One thing that is important to note is that only Ellsbury got a one-year deal. The other raises mentioned above are part of multi-year deals, which are usually not very applicable in arbitration cases (although they could be in this scenario with few comparables).

If we look for a player more recent, we might consider Manny Machado last year at .294/37/96. He got a $6.5MM raise and clearly looks like a relevant player. The home run environment difference in just one year is pretty limited as well.

The record raise for a second-time eligible hitter belongs to Chris Davis, who got a $7.05MM raise after his .286/53/138 campaign in 2014. That would probably compare favorably to Ozuna’s numbers because of the home run difference, but the four years’ lag could render that number stale and push Ozuna and Abreu above him after all, as the model predicts. However, I think it may serve as a ceiling, leaving Ozuna and Abreu south of theor projections and slightly south of Davis.

Charlie Blackmon hit .324/29/104 last season, but did so in Coors Field, so he might be seen as less impressive than Ozuna and Abreu. His $3.8MM raise is probably a floor, and perhaps not that close of one.

I think it may be more likely that Ozuna and Abreu both get raises somewhere around $6MM. The triad of players with .300/30/100 slash lines and raises over $5MM back in 2008-12 are probably floors, whereas Davis’ raise seems like a ceiling. If that proves true, Ozuna might end up around $10MM instead of closer to $11MM, and Abreu might end up closer to $17MM than $18MM.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which Of These Players Is Most Likely To Be Traded?

By Kyle Downing | January 6, 2018 at 9:44pm CDT

We’ve reached January, and the free agent market is still lagging in a big way. The top free agents available seemingly haven’t showed a willingness to lower their asking prices, and with spring training less than two months out, teams may feel a need to complete their offseason shopping lists sooner than later. In some cases, this may cause teams to make stronger pushes for some candidates on the trade market.

There have certainly been some large scale trades so far this offseason. High-end players such as Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler and Stephen Piscotty have changed hands already, and there are still plenty of practical matches left between MLB teams. We’ve detailed many of these in the 2017-2018 installment of our “Looking For A Match” series; the players featured in those articles are listed below, with our noted potential fits listed in parentheses.

Billy Hamilton, Reds CF (Giants, Dodgers, Royals): Hamilton’s talents as a burner on the basepaths and an elite defender in center field are well-known throughout MLB circles, but in truth, that’s about where his usefulness ends. His .299 OBP was the 11th-lowest among qualified hitters in 2017; that number is about consistent with his career mark. The Giants seem to have shown a strong interest in Hamilton, but Reds owner Bob Castellini’s recently-reported hesitancy to part with the speedster could gum up trade negotiations. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Billy Hamilton Trade]
Brad Hand, Padres LHRP (Astros, Dodgers, Cardinals, Twins, Braves): Though our evaluation of Hand’s trade market also included the Rays and Rockies, those teams seem like less likely suitors at this point in the offseason; the former decreased their likelihood of contention by shipping Longoria to San Francisco, while the latter has signed three expensive relief pitchers to pad their bullpen. Hand is one of the elite relief pitchers in all of baseball, and he’s certainly one of the best (if not the undisputed best) bullpen options on the trade market. Of course, the caveat is that it would also require a significant prospect haul to convince San Diego to move him. The lefty has two years of team control remaining, and MLBTR projects him to cost just $3.8MM in 2018. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Brad Hand Trade]
Jose Abreu, White Sox 1B (Astros, Indians, Rangers, Red Sox, Rockies): Though the Cuba native has been a mainstay in the White Sox’ lineup since his MLB debut in 2014, his club is unlikely to contend for a pennant before he reaches free agency after the 2019 season. MLBTR’s arbitration projections have him pegged for a $17.9MM salary in 2018, but his expected offensive output makes him well worth that price tag. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Jose Abreu Trade]
Avisail Garcia, White Sox OF (Blue Jays, Indians, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rangers): Like Abreu, Garcia is a South Sider with two years of team control remaining. However, he comes with a lot more risk; Garcia had played below replacement level over the course of his career prior to a breakout this past season. Still, there are many teams who would benefit from adding a lefty-masher to their outfield corps, and his projected 2018 salary is a reasonable $6.7MM. [LINK: Looking For A Match In An Avisail Garcia Trade]
Raisel Iglesias, Reds RHRP (Nationals, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Twins, Astros): With three full seasons of team control remaining, Iglesias could prove a valuable long-term asset to either a rebuilding club or a current contender. He’s managed to strike out 10.43 batters per nine innings over the course of his career as a reliever while posting a sterling 2.29 ERA. The Twins have reportedly shown interest in Iglesias this winter, though that was nearly two months ago; there haven’t been any new developments in that story since then. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Raisel Iglesias Trade]
J.T. Realmuto, Marlins C (Nationals, Rockies, Diamondbacks): Unlike the other players on this list, Realmuto has gone so far as to request a trade from his current team. While that alone certainly isn’t enough to facilitate a trade, some have taken the stance that Miami ought to trade their catcher (along with fellow Marlin Christian Yelich) at his peak value. Realmuto has accrued more than 7 WAR over the past two seasons alone, but the Marlins don’t feel compelled to trade him unless they’re overwhelmed by an offer. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A J.T. Realmuto Trade]
Manny Machado, Orioles 3B (Cardinals, Yankees, Angels, Rockies, Nationals): Rumors surrounding Baltimore’s prized infielder have cooled off a bit recently, but the Orioles could still be prompted to move him for the right offer. They’re reportedly seeking two talented starting pitchers who are controllable for the long term, however, which seems like a sky-high asking price for a player with just one year of team control remaining. Of course, the O’s probably wouldn’t restrict a return to just rotation options. Machado is projected to earn a $17.3MM salary in his final season before hitting the free agent market. [LINK: Trading Manny Machado]

We’ll open this subject up to reader opinions at this point. Which of the trade candidates we’ve profiled do you think is most likely to be traded before the 2018 season begins? (Link for app users)

Taking Inventory: Chicago White Sox

By Kyle Downing | December 27, 2017 at 2:50pm CDT

The White Sox haven’t been shy about blowing up their major league team lately. Within the past 13 months, GM Rick Hahn has shipped out nearly half the players who were on the club’s 25-man roster at the end of the 2016 season. Most notably, Chicaco was able to land killer hauls for Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana.

The teardown has resulted in a tidal wave of incredible young talent. Yoan Moncada, Carson Fulmer, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez are already playing at the MLB level, and the club has three top 25 overall prospects still waiting in the wings. However, as one might imagine, the club is still not ready to contend. Player development isn’t always linear, and it will take at least a couple of years for the newfound cavalry to arrive from the farm system, let alone find success in the majors. As such, the White Sox are likely to continue trading away major league pieces with limited team control in order to add talent they can count on during their next window of contention.

Here’s a list of remaining assets that the South Siders might consider moving in the coming months…

Two Years of Control

Jose Abreu, 1B ($17.9MM projected arb salary): Since coming to Chicago from Cuba, Abreu has been an offensive force for the White Sox, evidenced by his .301/.359/.524 batting line and 139 wRC+ with the organization. He’s averaged 31 homers and 665 plate appearances across his four major league seasons, making him one of the most reliable offensive players in the game. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently profiled his trade market, listing the Red Sox, Rangers and Rockies among his potential suitors. Abreu’s expensive salary (which will likely get another hefty boost in 2019) limits his trade value, but there’s still a clear surplus here. A crowded first base market complicates things a bit, but he could still draw plenty of interest from other clubs.

Avisail Garcia, OF ($6.7MM projected arb salary): Garcia enjoyed the best season of his career in 2017 after shedding some weight during the 2016-2017 offseason. The right-handed-hitting outfielder was in contention for the AL batting title for most of the year (thanks in part to a .392 BABIP), and was worth 4.2 fWAR overall. A while back, I broke down his hypothetical trade market, listing the Indians, Rockies and Diamondbacks as potential landing spots.

Rival organizations will obviously be skeptical about Garcia’s ability to repeat this performance considering his career 90 wRC+ prior to last season. Oddly, his hard hit rate and average exit velocity were basically in line with his 2016 figures. Still, it would be irresponsible for teams to write his 2017 season as entirely a fluke; Garcia did trade a few ground balls for fly balls and improve his contact rate, after all.

Longer-Term Assets

Nate Jones, RHP ($3.95MM salary for 2018, $545K club option for 2019, $3.75MM club option for 2020, $4.25MM club option for 2021. $1.25MM buyout on 2020-2021 options): A quick look at Jones’ numbers since his return from Tommy John surgery makes his contract look like a steal, particularly considering the lucrative deals given out to relievers so far this offseason. However, the righty reliever is highly unlikely to be traded this offseason after missing most of 2017 due to nerve repositioning surgery. He’ll likely need to reestablish his value before the White Sox can move him. A return to his 2016 form, however, would put Jones in the upper echelon of MLB relievers, and send his trade value through the roof.

Yolmer Sanchez, 2B ($2.1 projected arb salary for 2018): Formerly known as Carlos Sanchez, the switch-hitting second baseman rebranded himself in 2017. While it may have created moments of confusion for more casual White Sox fans, they’re just fine it that considering his improvements on the field. This past season, Sanchez hit .267/.319/.413 while playing excellent defense at the keystone. The 25-year-old Venezuela native was worth 8 defensive runs saved in 620 innings and ranked second in UZR/150 among MLB second baseman (minimum 500 innings). With four years of team control remaining, it’s certainly possible that Sanchez could be around for the next competitive White Sox team. However, he could yield plenty of value in a trade.

Carlos Rodon, LHP ($2MM projected arb salary for 2018): In all seriousness, Rodon probably won’t be traded any time soon. After an injury-plagued 2017 season that ended with shoulder surgery, no team will likely be willing to give up the prospects it would take to pry him out of Chicago’s hands. However, he’s on this list simply for the possibility that he could reestablish value prior to the coming season’s trade deadline. While the former number three overall pick might miss a portion of 2018, he comes with enormous upside. With the market for pitching being what it is, trading Rodon could provide an enormous boost to an already-strong farm system. Of course, the White Sox would need to be overwhelmed by an offer in order to consider moving him, as they can still retain him through 2021. Still, the club was content to move Jose Quintana at last year’s deadline, so Rodon is at least worth a mention on this list.

Salary Dump Candidates

James Shields, RHP ($21MM salary for 2018, $16MM club option for 2019 with a $2MM buyout): Any trade involving Shields would probably involve the White Sox sending some money along with him. The right-hander has an ERA well over 5.00 since coming to Chicago, and has walked over four batters per nine innings pitched during that time. His numbers in five September starts this past season were more palatable, however, and it’s worth noting that the White Sox are only on the hook for about half of Shields’ 2018 salary. Perhaps some team will be willing to take a chance on him as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater. Either way, he’s a one-year piece; his 2019 club option is highly unlikely to be exercised.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cafardo’s Latest: Abreu, Giants, Rox, Pads, Braun, Reds, A’s, O’s

By Connor Byrne | December 10, 2017 at 10:35am CDT

The Red Sox are “very interested” in White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, which runs contrary to previous reports. The Cardinals are also after Abreu, Cafardo adds, which isn’t surprising for a team that just lost out on Giancarlo Stanton and continues to seek a power bat. Abreu, who will turn 31 in January, slashed .304/.354/.552 with 33 home runs in 675 plate appearances last season. He comes with two years of arbitration eligibility and will earn a lofty sum – a projected $17.9MM – in 2018. The White Sox want “top prospects” for Abreu, per Cafardo.

More from Cafardo, whose latest column previews the Winter Meetings for all 30 clubs:

With an obvious need at third base, the Giants are primed to go after the top two free agents at the hot corner – Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier – Cafardo notes. The 29-year-old Moustakas (a California native) figures to reel in a much larger pact than Frazier (32 in February). Moustakas is also a qualifying offer recipient, so signing him would cost the Giants their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in 2018 and $1MM in international bonus pool space.
Free agent first baseman Logan Morrison has drawn interest from the Rockies, per Cafardo. Signing Morrison, who MLBTR projects will land a three-year, $36MM payday this offseason, would presumably send Ian Desmond to the outfield full time as Carlos Gonzalez’ replacement. It could also give the Rockies a significant offensive boost, with the 30-year-old Morrison having slashed .246/.353/.516 with a personal-high 38 homers in 2017.
The shortstop-needy Padres will pursue the premier player available at the position, Zack Cozart, according to Cafardo. Cozart was one of the best players in the majors last season, pairing his usual excellent defense with uncharacteristically great offense (.297/.385/.548 with 24 homers in 507 PAs), but the longtime Red isn’t a free agent at a time when many teams are seeking a shortstop, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explained. That could negatively affect his market, then, though MLBTR still forecasts a respectable contract (three years, $42MM) for the 32-year-old.
The Brewers would consider proposals for left fielder Ryan Braun, Cafardo suggests. Milwaukee has no shortage of outfielders, which could open the door for a Braun trade, but moving him would be challenging. The 34-year-old posted one of his worst seasons in 2017, thanks in part to injuries, and still has $57MM coming his way (including a $4MM buyout in 2021). He also has full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player.
Along with the previously reported Raisel Iglesias, the Reds are “open to offers” for left fielder Adam Duvall, Cafardo relays. Duvall, 29, would provide cheap power to a team in need of it – he’s not eligible for arbitration until next winter and is fresh off his second 30-home run season in a row (though he hit an underwhelming .249/.301/.480 in 2017).
The Athletics expected to retain infielder Jed Lowrie as of October, but now they’d “certainly be willing” to trade him, Cafardo reports. Lowrie will enter his age-34 campaign in 2018, in which he’ll earn a very reasonable $6MM, after turning in one of the healthiest and best years of his career last season.
Orioles reliever Mychal Givens will be in “great demand” at the meetings, Cafardo writes. The 27-year-old is coming off his second terrific full season in a row and is under control for the next four years, including a pre-arb season in 2018. For those reasons, the Orioles may decide to keep the right-hander.

AL Notes: Abreu, Fiers, Minor, Athletics, Blue Jays

By Steve Adams | December 8, 2017 at 11:48am CDT

Despite recent reports connecting the Red Sox to Jose Abreu, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets that talks between Boston and Chicago are “significantly overstated,” adding that there’s never been much traction between the two sides in that regard. That meshes with what The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday (subscription required and recommended) when reporting that it’s unlikely the White Sox move Abreu to Boston or to any other club, “barring an unexpected change.”

Elsewhere in the AL…

Right-hander Mike Fiers reportedly agreed to a one-year, $6MM deal with the Tigers last night, and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Fiers actually turned down a two-year offer from the Orioles. Baltimore was comfortable committing $10-11MM to Fiers in total, but the righty is betting on himself in taking the one-year deal. As Crasnick notes, Fiers is still eligible for arbitration once more next offseason, so if he can remain healthy and hang onto a rotation spot throughout the season, he’d top that $10-11MM guarantee with another arbitration raise next winter.
Similarly, left-hander Mike Minor didn’t accept the top offer he received in free agency. FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted this week that Minor had offers of $30MM total, though those offers came over the life of a four-year term. Minor took a slightly lesser $28MM guarantee over three years, giving him a much higher annual value on the deal. Notably, Minor told reporters after signing that the Rangers were the only team that was willing to give him the option to stretch out as a starter (Twitter link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Minor said he’s open to either role but wanted to at least have the opportunity to return to a rotation.
Athletics GM David Forst spoke with reporters on a conference call yesterday and once again iterated that his team’s goal is to add a right-handed hitting corner outfielder to the mix (Twitter link via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Oakland will hope to come away from next week’s Winter Meetings with that player in tow, though there’s obviously no guarantee they’ll line up with a trade partner in Orlando. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that even though the A’s have no plans to trade Khris Davis, they’ll probably receive inquiries regarding his availability, given that Davis is only two years away from free agency. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a sizable $11.1MM salary for Davis in arbitration this year.
Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins tells Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith that even after acquiring Aledmys Diaz from the Cardinals, his team is still looking at additional middle infield options (Twitter link). The outfield, too, remains a priority, and the Jays are open to adding some help at catcher, though that’s a lesser priority, Nicholson-Smith notes. While the addition of Diaz certainly gives Toronto some much-needed depth, he’s coming off a down year while shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and second baseman Devon Travis are both prone to injuries.

AL Central Notes: Twins, Tigers, Abreu

By Kyle Downing | December 2, 2017 at 12:21pm CDT

Darren Wolfson of KSTP tweeted today that while the Twins remain “engaged and interested” in regards to a few big name free agent pitchers, there’s no indication yet that they are “in heavily” on anyone. While that can change quickly, Wolfson acknowledges that the trade market is also a very real possibility. It would seem that Minnesota is in a position to take their time in exploring all possible options. It makes plenty of sense to wonder whether the Twins might wait to see where Shohei Ohtani signs before making any significant pitching acquisitions. The market for pitching is likely to hold fast until the two-way Japanese sensation picks a landing spot, and on the off-chance that he chooses Minnesota, they might be able to focus their resources on other areas of the roster. A particularly weak bullpen comes to mind as another area the Twins will need to improve upon if they expect to contend again in 2018.

More notes out of the American League’s central division…

While the Tigers probably won’t be serious pursuers of big name free agents this offseason, Katie Strang of The Athletic provides a short list of potential bargain buys for a depleted Detroit rotation. Strang notes that Michael Fulmer is coming off elbow surgery, while veteran Jordan Zimmerman has spent the offseason overhauling his delivery in hopes to return to form after a disastrous 2017 season. Beyond them, Matthew Boyd and Daniel Norris aren’t sure bets to hold down rotation spots. Chris Tillman, Miles Mikolas and Clay Buchholz are some interesting names Strang suggests as options for the Tigers to explore. While none are particularly exciting, they all have some upside as comeback players and could eat innings for Detroit in 2018.
Although the Red Sox are players for White Sox slugger Jose Abreu, Scott Lauber of ESPN notes that the south siders are reportedly asking for “an arm and a leg” in exchange for their first baseman. Boston might not have the prospects necessary to swing a deal; the White Sox were able to land huge hauls for Chris Sale and Adam Eaton last offseason and might be holding out for a similar return for Abreu. The Cuban native has put up a .301/.359/.524 batting line for his four-year major league career. His slugging percentage and 124 home runs both rank 13th in the majors during that span, while his 410 RBI rank 5th. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently detailed the trade market for Abreu.

Red Sox Among Teams Discussing Jose Abreu Trade Scenarios With White Sox

By Jeff Todd | November 29, 2017 at 10:31am CDT

The Red Sox are among the organizations “in active talks” with the White Sox regarding veteran slugger Jose Abreu, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). It is not clear at the moment which other teams might be involved or how far talks might have progressed.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined the potential market for Abreu, citing Boston as one of the major possible suitors. Of course, there are also quite a few other organizations that would likely see merit in his contract rights, too.

Unlike top trade candidate Giancarlo Stanton and the slate of available free agents, Abreu can be controlled for a limited financial commitment. MLBTR projects that he’ll earn $17.9MM in arbitration for the coming season, a large sum but also less than what other top sluggers would command on the open market. And there’s another season of control that amounts to a floating club option; should he perform well, Abreu will be entitled to (and will likely deserve) another big raise in his final year of arbitration eligibility. If not, he can be allowed to walk.

In all likelihood, it’s something like a two-year, $40MM contract commitment without any possibility of a long-term commitment gumming up future balance sheets. That’s an appealing contract situation for a player that just smacked 33 long balls and slashed .304/.354/.552 in the 2017 campaign. Abreu will not turn 31 until January of next year.

While Abreu wouldn’t necessarily earn significantly more in average annual salary in a hypothetical trip onto the open market this winter, he’d surely command more years. There’s a world of difference between a four or five-year guarantee at this general rate of pay, for instance, and the current commitment to Abreu. To take but one comparison, he’s effectively controlled under a more team-friendly scenario than that which the Blue Jays agreed to with Jose Bautista last January, after the much older player languished on the market and fell shy of earning expectations on the heels of a down season. That contract guaranteed $18.5MM and included only a mutual option, whereas Abreu’s 2019 rights are firmly in club control.

There’s a fair bit of excess value here for the White Sox, who also won’t feel compelled to move Abreu for less than a compelling return. Putting Abreu in crimson hosiery will likely not be cheap, then. Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has suggested his organization is hesitant to part with significant prospect value to land a slugger, so getting something done here will likely require some creativity and/or tough choices.

Looking For A Match In A Jose Abreu Trade

By Mark Polishuk | November 23, 2017 at 11:01pm CDT

With the White Sox continuing their rebuild, it only makes sense that the team is open to the idea of trading slugger Jose Abreu. The first baseman is projected by MLBTR to earn a hefty $17.9MM in arbitration this winter, and he’ll have another big price tag due next winter when he makes his third and final trip through the arb process before hitting free agency.

Even at the cost of roughly $37MM over the next two seasons, however, it can certainly be argued that Abreu is well worth the money. He batted .304/.354/.552 with 33 homers over 675 plate appearances last season, with a 138 wRC+ that ranked 19th among all qualified hitters. While Abreu has done nothing but mash since coming to MLB in 2014, his career low strikeout and swinging-strike totals from last year and his career-best 40.5% hard-hit ball rate indicate that he may be becoming even more polished at the plate as he approaches his age-31 season. Between his big bat, his passable defensive numbers at first base and his well-respected clubhouse presence, Abreu would be an upgrade to any lineup in baseball.

With this resume in mind, Abreu represents an interesting alternative within a very crowded first base market on both the free agent and trade front this winter. A team might prefer Abreu’s two years of control to splurging on a longer-term and more expensive commitment to Eric Hosmer or Carlos Santana, while Abreu is a clear step up production-wise from second-tier first base free agents like Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso. Abreu also comes at just a fraction of the cost of Giancarlo Stanton for suitors that aren’t willing to meet the Marlins’ high (and maybe unrealistic) asking price of both prospects and salary absorption.

What the crowded market does mean, however, is that it may be some weeks or even months before Abreu’s fate is determined. Teams may not look for second-choice players until Stanton or Shohei Ohtani (who could be at least a part-time DH for an AL team) have their new teams established. White Sox GM Rick Hahn has shown that he is only willing to move his top assets (like Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, or Jose Quintana) for the highest of trade returns, and in Quintana’s case, Hahn was willing to wait until the season had begun to pull the trigger on a deal. It could be that the Sox hang onto Abreu until midseason when the first base market is less loaded.

Chicago will also be shopping Avisail Garcia this winter, who is four years younger and considerably less expensive than Abreu, but has the same amount of team control and has a much less-established track record of big league success. It isn’t out of the question that the Sox look to move both players in one blockbuster, though for now, let’s just focus on potential suitors for Abreu himself…

Angels: A left-handed bat would be a better fit for the righty-heavy Angels lineup, though the team would hardly complain about adding a hitter of Abreu’s caliber. Both corner infield spots are areas of need for the Halos, and Abreu’s addition would shift Luis Valbuena over to third base and turn C.J. Cron into a trade or even a non-tender candidate. It isn’t clear, however, if the Angels’ thin farm system has enough interesting names to get Chicago’s attention.

Astros: Adding Abreu to this already-stacked lineup would just about be unfair, but it looks like Evan Gattis is Houston’s answer for the DH spot next season now that Carlos Beltran has retired. The World Series champions probably won’t be in the mix for Abreu, though it’s worth noting that the White Sox are quite familiar with the Astros’ farm system, after acquiring Tyler Clippard last summer and extensively discussing Quintana before the southpaw was eventually dealt to the Cubs. Houston was also one of the teams interested in Abreu when he first came from Cuba to the big leagues.

Brewers: A bit of an outside-the-box contender for Abreu since Eric Thames is already at first base, plus Thames is owed only $12MM through 2019 (which includes a $1MM buyout of a $7.5MM club option for 2020). Thames is actually a couple of months older than Abreu, however, and isn’t as nearly as proven a hitter; even in Thames’ breakout 2017 campaign, he was very hot-and-cold in terms of production thanks to a big strikeout rate. Milwaukee is reportedly open to spending on pitching this winter, so you wonder if a team that is prepared to make a big move wouldn’t also be open to an offensive upgrade. Thames could be shipped to the White Sox as part of the Abreu trade package, giving the Sox another trade chip for the deadline.

Cardinals: Known to be looking for a difference-making bat this winter, the Cards have been exploring numerous free agent and trade options, most notably being cited as one of Stanton’s top suitors. A trade indeed seems like the best course of action given the Cards’ surplus of infielders and (particularly) outfielders on the roster, so St. Louis seems like a logical partner for the White Sox. The Cardinals have enough depth to pay a premium for Abreu and then still potentially have enough players or especially payroll space to swing another big move for an outfielder or for pitching.

Indians: Abreu would make a fine replacement at first base if Santana leaves in free agency, and Abreu’s short-term contract fits into the Tribe’s contention window. The two division rivals may not be keen on supplying the other with either a top slugger or good prospects, however — Cleveland and Chicago have only worked out one trade with each other since 1994.

Mets: Injuries, platoon candidates, and unproven prospects have left the Mets’ roster with enough uncertainty that they’ve been linked to such varied targets as Santana, Lorenzo Cain, and Ian Kinsler. Abreu would be a bigger add than Kinsler and would cost less money than Santana or Cain, though it remains to be seen if the Mets would have enough prospects to entice the White Sox. Dominic Smith seems like a likely candidate to be offered in an Abreu trade package, though the Sox aren’t likely to be too enamored by a player who may have fallen out of favor with the Mets.

Padres: You may wonder why they’re on this list given the presence of Wil Myers, but San Diego has reportedly given some consideration to moving Myers to the corner outfield and pursuing Hosmer. Given that the Padres are themselves rebuilding and Hosmer would be seen as a long-term building block for when the team is competitive again, Abreu’s two years of control likely makes the Friars an extreme long shot as trade partners for the White Sox.

Phillies: Another far-fetched trade candidate on paper, though since Philadelphia has been checking in on Carlos Santana, the Phils probably can’t be entirely ruled out as contenders for Abreu. The Phillies have also been widely seen as planning to spend big in the 2018-19 free agent market, so if the team lands a superstar or two from that class, they could be planning to contend by 2019, so Abreu’s short-term control could be a fit (with Rhys Hoskins perhaps able to move back to first base for the 2020 season).

Rangers: Another team that was in on Abreu back in 2013, Texas is a bit of a tricky fit now. Abreu’s addition would result in Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara becoming the regular corner outfielders, Shin-Soo Choo becoming the regular DH and top prospect Willie Calhoun fighting to find at-bats. That is, unless, the Rangers made the bold move of offering Calhoun or even Mazara to Chicago as the headliner of an Abreu trade package. Pitching is the more pressing need for the Rangers this offseason but if they can’t add enough big arms, they could do the opposite route and just try to load up on offense.

Red Sox: Abreu would instantly solve Boston’s power outage from last season and his short contract means that the Sox would still have an opening for Sam Travis or Rafael Devers at first in the relatively near future. Dave Dombrowski already swung one blockbuster with Hahn last winter for Sale, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the two sides again collaborated. Jackie Bradley Jr. might be a person of interest in such a deal, as Chicago was interested in Bradley during past trade talks.

Rockies: As noted by Jeff Todd in his recent Offseason Outlook piece on Colorado’s winter plans, Abreu has been on the Rockies’ radar in the past and would be a very solid fit for a team that has a big hole at first base. Abreu’s presence would move Ian Desmond into a corner outfield spot (maybe a better fit for Desmond anyway) and thus potentially block Raimel Tapia in the outfield and Ryan McMahon at first base. Either youngster could conceivably go to the White Sox as part of an Abreu deal, however.

Royals: This scenario would only take place if Hosmer left but K.C. re-signed one of its other big free agents (Cain and Mike Moustakas). If all three left, the Royals are likely to embark on a rebuild rather than make a splashy trade for Abreu.

Twins: Miguel Sano will reportedly be ready by early January after undergoing leg surgery in early November, though given the nature of the procedure (Sano is having a titanium rod inserted in his left leg), one has to wonder if Sano will spend more time at DH than at third base next season. If this is the case, Minnesota isn’t a fit for Abreu since Joe Mauer is still locked in at first base. If Sano is healthy enough to stay at the hot corner, the Twins could look into an Abreu trade, though they’re another team that has been more focused on pitching for their offseason shopping.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

GM Meetings Notes: The American League Central

By Jeff Todd | November 14, 2017 at 11:25am CDT

Royals GM Dayton Moore did not strike a particularly optimistic tone yesterday with regard to the the organization’s major free agents, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reports on Twitter. “We’ll see what the market dictates, we’ll stay engaged with our current free agents,” said Moore. “But I’m not sure if it’s at the levels that everyone’s talking about. It may be extra challenging for us.” The Kansas City organization will get a chance to begin figuring out just how much it’ll cost to keep Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas when it sits down today with agent Scott Boras, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports.

Moore also discussed the fact that he’ll stay with the Royals after owner David Glass declined to allow him to interview with the Braves, as Dodd further writes. “I simply left that in Mr. Glass’s hands,” said Moore. “If he wanted to grant permission, then that would signal to me that he didn’t want me here. If he denied permission, that would tell me he wants me here.” That’s certainly an interesting perspective. Moore did emphasize, too, that he’s happy both to remain in charge of the Royals’ baseball ops and to put the speculation behind him. He is under contract in Kansas City through the 2020 campaign, Dodd further reports, and it seems as if there’s good cause to expect the relationship to continue for the foreseeable future.
Unsurprisingly, GM Rick Hahn suggests the White Sox are open to trading their few established veteran hitters this winter, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes. With the club still “focused on the long-term,” says Hahn, it will entertain offers on first baseman Jose Abreu and outfielder Avisail Garcia. Hahn explained: “At some point, not necessarily this offseason, we have to make the decision: Are we best served by extending them through what we project to be the bulk of our (competitive) window, or are we better off making a move like some of the others we’ve made and trying to reinforce the future with prospects?'” It’ll be interesting to see what kinds of offers are dangled for both players and whether Chicago truly seeks to initiate extension talks to create an alternative path.
The Tigers are diving right into talks on several players, GM Al Avila told reporters including Evan Woodberry of MLive.com (via Twitter). Avila said he has already discussed a few of the team’s players with rival organizations, including veteran second baseman Ian Kinsler. Detroit is also preparing to make some difficult 40-man roster decisions, Woodberry reports. Indeed, Avila says the process of whittling the players to protect from the Rule 5 draft has been “excruciating and painful.”
The Twins front office duo of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine faces quite a different situation in their second offseason with the franchise, as Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes. Indeed, the team’s reported interest in some of the best free agent pitching serves to highlight the opportunities and expectations facing the organization this winter.

AL Central Notes: Kinsler, Kintzler, White Sox

By Steve Adams | November 10, 2017 at 4:29pm CDT

The results of this year’s Gold Glove Awards voting came in earlier this week, and in the American League it was Brian Dozier taking home his first career Gold Glove at second base. Dozier took home a standard $25K bonus for that distinction, but the more notable financial component of the award is that Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler did not take home the $1MM bonus he’d have received for capturing a second Gold Glove honor. Kinsler’s 2017 option vested based on plate appearances back in September, but his salary would’ve risen from $11MM to $12MM had he landed the extra hardware. The $1MM difference in his salary won’t have much of an impact on his overall trade stock, but it’s still of minor note for both the Tigers and interested parties as Detroit explores trade scenarios for its longtime second baseman this winter.

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