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Jose Dariel Abreu

Jose Dariel Abreu About To Agree To $68MM Deal

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9:28pm: The Rangers will not sign Abreu, Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan tweets. The Astros and Red Sox likely will not, either. The White Sox still appear to be the favorites, although there might still be a "mystery team" involved.

7:29pm: Cuban first baseman Jose Dariel Abreu is "finalizing" a six-year, $68MM contract, likely with the White Sox, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal tweets. Abreu is represented by Praver Shapiro Sports Management. The deal would be the largest contract ever for an international free agent. It would easily surpass the six-year, $42MM deal Yasiel Puig received from the Dodgers last June.

This afternoon, it emerged that Abreu was deciding between the White Sox, Red Sox and Astros. The Rangers, Marlins and Giants had also shown interest.

Abreu, 26, defected from Cuba two months ago. He put up massive numbers in Cuba's Serie Nacional, winning over-the-top praise for his power and earning comparisons to Ryan Howard. Some experts have raised doubts about his bat speed, however, and his defense and athleticism are not highly regarded. Tim Dierkes' profile of Abreu predicted he would receive a six-year, $54MM contract.

Free Agent Profile: Jose Dariel Abreu

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Is Jose Dariel Abreu MLB's next Cuban sensation?  Abreu, who turns 27 in January, defected from Cuba in August and is now free to sign with any team.  He has a good chance to sign the largest contract ever for a Cuban player, topping Yasiel Puig's seven-year, $42MM deal.  Every team had some kind of scouting presence at Abreu's early October showcase, reported Baseball America's Ben Badler.  

Strengths/Pros

Abreu put up huge numbers in Cuba's Serie Nacional as well as in international tournaments.  His calling card is power, prompting Athletics assistant GM David Forst to say to Grantland's Jonah Keri in February 2012, "There are legitimate comparisons to Ryan Howard."  Badler elaborated in August this year, "Abreu is a physically imposing righthanded hitter with tremendous raw power to all fields."  In an ESPN article, former GM Jim Bowden gave Abreu a 70 hit tool and 70 for power on the scouting scale, after talking to "a few execs and scouts who have seen him play."  One scout told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick Abreu has "monstrous power."  Many different reports suggest Abreu could hit 30 home runs for an MLB team right away, a level no free agent reached in 2013.  Given the scouting grade on his power, it seems possible Abreu could reach 40 in a season at some point during his contract.

Since Abreu will play in 2014 at age 27, he's younger than every significant free agent hitter.  A six-year deal could still catch a large portion of his prime, which is unlikely to be the case with any other free agent.  

If they reach the open market, many of the top free agent power bats have a good chance of requiring the sacrifice of a draft pick to sign: Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran, Mike Napoli, Kendrys Morales, Shin-Soo Choo, and Brian McCann.  Abreu will not require the loss of a draft pick.

Weaknesses/Cons

If Abreu has a few vintage Ryan Howard or David Ortiz-caliber seasons during his contract, he should easily be worth $50-60MM, and could provide an excellent return on investment.  MLB executives are drooling at the thought.  There have been some less-than-glowing reports about Abreu's overall hitting ability, however.

Abreu's bat speed was questioned in a pair of excellent reports from Badler and Crasnick, and there are multiple scouts who feel he will struggle against hard fastballs inside.  Crasnick talked to a scout who described Abreu as a less-athletic Dayan Viciedo, a player with a .264/.306/.432 line in over 1,200 big league plate appearances.  In sum, Viciedo has been about replacement level for his career.  The scout felt that Abreu has more power than Kendrys Morales, but is a worse hitter.  There are few questions about Abreu's power, but will he be able to hit for average or draw a walk?  Badler has noted that scouts and teams have extensive history watching Abreu, but based on reports, it's unclear whether they project him over or under Morales' .333 career OBP.

Reports vary on Abreu's ability to contribute beyond his bat.  One scout told Crasnick Abreu is "all bat," an Edgar Martinez type, while another felt he could be a solid first baseman.  The bar is raised for a bat-only player, and it's certainly possible to hit 25-30 home runs and still be replacement level, as Raul Ibanez did this year.  As far as young DHs go, Billy Butler has a .298/.364/.459 line in seven seasons, yet has never had a season in which he was worth three wins above replacement.  Still, if Abreu settles in as a two-win player, he'll be worth a $10MM salary.  

At 6'2" and 250 pounds, Abreu is not nearly the athlete Yasiel Puig or Yoenis Cespedes is, though Crasnick says Abreu has ramped up his conditioning of late.  He's still likely to be a negative in baserunning.  

Personal

Abreu is married and has a son, and I've heard he is a relatively quiet player who takes a professional approach to his job.  Abreu is more grounded than Puig and is considered a "good kid" in scouting circles, according to Crasnick.  Abreu's good friend Henry Urrutia, an outfielder for the Orioles, told MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez, "He's a humble man and he comes from a rural area of hard-working people."  Abreu has a "fun-loving personality," heard MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.

Market

The top end of the free agent market for first basemen includes Mike Napoli and Kendrys Morales, both of whom seem likely to come with a draft pick cost attached.  Badler talked to scouts who preferred Napoli to Abreu, but it's far from a slam dunk.  Though Abreu has been scouted extensively, I still believe some teams will be seduced by the allure of the unknown, as it's easier to dream about Abreu hitting 40 home runs than Napoli or Morales, partially because Abreu has never played in the Majors.

Unlike typical free agents, Abreu is free to sign now and already held a showcase, so rumors are plentiful.  The Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox, Rangers, Giants, Pirates, Orioles, and Mets have been linked to Abreu to varying degrees, and Badler says the first five teams had the strongest presence at his showcase in the Dominican Republic.  Abreu's market is not limited to win-now teams, given his age.  The Marlins, in particular, are "all-in" on Abreu, wrote MLB.com's Joe Frisaro in early October.  They sent GM Dan Jennings to his showcase, and already have two of Abreu's countrymen on the roster in Jose Fernandez and Adeiny Hechavarria.

Expected Contract

Predicting Abreu's contract is particularly difficult without knowing the player's goals.  Cespedes made a point of limiting his term to four years, to allow a quick path back to free agency.  Puig maximized his total dollars by taking a seven-year deal, a contract few saw coming in advance.  Napoli has his share of drawbacks, yet I've projected a three-year, $42MM contract.  Given that Abreu is more than five years younger, won't cost a draft pick, and may have more power, an average annual value of $10MM or less may be a bargain.  $60MM over six years appears to be Abreu's ceiling.  Ultimately I find the oft-cited six-year, $54MM prediction to be the best bet.

Quick Hits: A’s, Morse, Mariners, Abreu, Braves

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As the Athletics get ready for Game 5 against the Tigers, owner Lew Wolff is embroiled in a different battle with the Giants for the right to move his team to San Jose.  Wolff goes way back with commissioner Bud Selig, but that won’t play a major role in the proceedings.  “Well, we were in the same fraternity,” Wolff told Bob Nightengale of USA Today, “but Bud was there to get an education. I was there to have a good time. Bud was involved in so many intramural events, there wasn’t a game or sport he missed. Of course, he was a spectator. I don’t remember him playing any of it.”  More from around baseball..

  • The Orioles believe that Mike Morse’s injury “pre-dated” their summer trade with the Mariners, but it’s not an issue they’re pursuing, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). Morse is a pending free agent this winter after posting a combined slash line of .215/.270/.381 with 13 homers this past season.
  • The Mariners’ have a long list of managers that they might pursue this winter, but Joe Girardi is not among them, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  While they surely believe that Girardi is a strong skipper, they know that they won’t be able to compete with the allure of the Yankees or Cubs openings.  Three names believed to be on the list are A’s coach Chip Hale, Giants coach Ron Wotus, and newly-minted Phillies third base coach Pete Mackanin.
  • A high-ranking Mets official told the Star-Ledger’s Jorge Castillo that scouts came away “impressed” with Jose Dariel Abreu’s power after watching him in Santo Domingo last week.
  • There is no telling how the NL East will shake out, but the Braves could be contenders without making a single offseason move, opines Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.
  • The Rockies announced today that Jorge de la Rosa had his option picked up for 2014, but the pitcher says that he was already assured that it would be exercised last week, writes Rafael Rojas Cremonesi for MLB.com.

Rangers Notes: Daniels, Maddux, Murphy, Young

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Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux is "more interested" in the Cubs manager's job than he was two years ago, a source tells ESPN Chicago's Jesse Rogers.  The Cubs were interested in Maddux in 2011 but he pulled himself out of the process due to family considerations, though that "isn't as big of a concern" this time around.  The Cubs have yet to contact Maddux during their current search for a new bench boss.  Here's the latest from Arlington…

  • GM Jon Daniels discussed his relationship with Nolan Ryan, coaching changes, Jurickson Profar's development and other Rangers topics during a recent appearance on "The Ben and Skin Show" on 105.3 The Fan radio (partial transcript provided by the Dallas Morning News).  In regards to how the team will address Profar and the crowded middle infield picture, Daniels said, “If [a trade] helps us get better and win, then yeah, and I think we’d consider trading somebody. If it doesn’t, we’re not going to force it. There are a lot worse problems than having too many good players for a position.”
  • Also from that interview, Daniels discussed his club's offseason needs.  "Catching is an area that we need to address, as is our offense and run production in general, and there's a couple different spots we can look to add some offense. I think you're always in the market for pitching," Daniels said.
  • David Murphy will likely be playing elsewhere in 2014, MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan writes as part of a reader mailbag.  The 31-year-old hit a career-worst .220/.282/.374 in 476 PA, drastically lowing his stock on the free agent market this winter.  Sullivan speculates that Murphy could be a good fit on the Astros or Giants.
  • Also from Sullivan's mailbag, he notes that Michael Young could retire at the end of this season.  Young turns 37 later this month and his contract will be up as soon as the Dodgers' playoff run ends.
  • Sullivan guesses that the Rangers would have to give up Profar, a top pitching prospect like Luke Jackson, and also a big hitting prospect from the lower minors to acquire David Price from the Rays. 
  • If the Rangers signed Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu, Sullivan doesn't think it would necessarily mean the end of Mitch Moreland's time with the club since the Rangers need more bats.
  • Earlier today on MLBTR, Zach Links included an item about the Rangers as part of a "Texas Notes" post.

White Sox Expected To Pursue Curtis Granderson

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The White Sox will have a lot of holes to fill this offseason, and Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the they're expected to push hard for free agent outfielder Curtis Granderson. The connection makes sense not only based on team needs but because Granderson is an Illinois native who played college ball at the University of Illinois-Chicago. Granderson recently donated a new baseball facility to UIC, and that facility is roughly three miles from U.S. Cellular Field, writes Van Schouwen.

Granderson, who turns 33 next March, played in just 61 games this season due to a pair of fluke injuries. He suffered a fractured forearm when he was hit by a pitch in his first Spring Training plate appearance, and another HBP broke his pinkie finger in just his eighth game of the regular season. That fracture wound up requiring surgery that would sideline Granderson until Aug. 2.

When on the field, Granderson hit .229/.317/.407 — a noticeable decline the robust .247/.342/.522 he slashed from 2011-12. However, hand and forearm injuries have been known to diminish offensive output upon initial return, and it's not as if U.S. Cellular Field is a pitcher-friendly stadium that would cause Granderson's power to greatly decline. White Sox GM Rick Hahn would have good reason to believe that Granderson could return to form were he to sign with the South-Siders this winter.

A serious pursuit of Granderson would likely mean that the Sox view Alejandro De Aza as a fourth outfielder or as trade bait, notes Van Schouwen. I would imagine that coming off a .264/.323/.405 season with 17 homers and 20 steals, Hahn would be able to find some interest, even if advanced defensive metrics didn't care for De Aza's glove work.

Granderson will be one of the main beneficiaries of Hunter Pence's lofty five-year, $90MM extension this offseason. Not only did Pence's deal set a high precedent for corner outfielders, it also removed one of Granderson's main competitors from the free agent market before the season even ended. Granderson and agent Matt Brown will still have to contend with the likes of Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Beltran and perhaps Nelson Cruz, who is expected to receive a qualifying offer from the Rangers. I profiled Granderson's free agent case last month and estimated that he could fetch three years and $45MM based on his track record, though that was before Pence's contract was signed. Granderson said recently that his preference is to stay with the Yankees, but it remains to be seen if they will make a serious push to retain him as they attempt to lower payroll.

Also within Van Schouwen's piece, he reminds us that the Sox are keeping tabs on Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu. Former GM and current VP Kenny Williams was on-hand for the 26-year-old first baseman's two-day showcase in the Dominican Republic. Abreu would fit Hahn's desire for "long-term, sustainable success," but he's being pursued by numerous clubs and is expected to command a hefty price tag.

The price tag will be key in the pursuit of both free agents, as Van Schouwen's source admitted: "[Granderson's] a Chicago kid with a name on the back of the jersey to create a buzz. Are they going to come up with the cash? I don’t see that happening."

One thing the White Sox do have going in their favor is their protected pick in the 2014 draft. The Sox, who select third overall in 2014, would only have to forfeit their second-round selection to sign Granderson. That could make them more willing to spend than teams who would be forced to surrender their top pick.

Marlins Considering Serious Push For Jose Dariel Abreu

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The Marlins were well-represented at Jose Dariel Abreu's most recent showcase, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro, who reports that the team is giving serious consideration to meeting his price tag, which could exceed $40-50MM. The Marlins have become enamored with Abreu's bat and "are all-in" on signing him, says Frisaro.

MLB Network's Peter Gammons noted recently that new Marlins president of baseball operations Dan Jennings was on-hand at the showcase and notes that the team could build interest and boost attendance by pairing Abreu with fellow Cuban Jose Fernandez. One club executive opined to Gammons, "Two years from now, if they had Christian Yelich, Colin Moran, Giancarlo Stanton and Abreu at the front of their order with the young pitching they have, they could be serious contenders."

The Marlins aren't expected to be very active on the free agent market for domestic players, but they consider the international market a more attractive alternative, writes Frisaro. He adds that the team would be willing to stretch payroll past its initially projected $38MM figure to add an international player like Abreu.

Miami has Logan Morrison as its first baseman right now and could retain him even if they sign Abreu if they believe Abreu can be adequate at third base. Frisaro notes that some believe he could play third base at the same level as Miguel Cabrera, which isn't exactly a glowing endorsement of his defense but could be passable if he can meet expectations with the bat.

International Notes: Jose Abreu, Bryan De La Cruz

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Here's the latest from the international prospect market…

  • "Every team had someone" present at Jose Abreu's showcases on Monday and Tuesday, Baseball America's Ben Badler reports, but the Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Marlins and Giants had the largest presences.  Badler reported a few days ago that the Rangers could be the favorites to sign Abreu, with the Red Sox, White Sox, Pirates and Nationals also strong contenders.
  • The Giants were known to be interested in Abreu and they sent "an especially large crew" to his showcase that included GM Brian Sabeau, Felipe Alou and Pat Burrell.  Badler finds this curious given that the Giants already have Brandon Belt, but he speculates that San Francisco could sign Abreu and then move Belt to left field to possibly shop him in a trade.
  • As for the showcase itself, Badler said Abreu "didn’t seem to hurt his stock" as a right-handed hitting power bat.  Abreu took a few grounders at third base though that may have just been as a test of arm strength, as Badler writes that Abreu is "almost certain to sign as a first baseman."
  • The Astros have signed 16-year-old Bryan de la Cruz to a contract with a $170K bonus, Ben Badler reports.  A 6'2", 175-pound outfielder from the Dominican Republic, de la Cruz has "good tools" and has shown "power potential" from the right side of the plate.  De la Cruz is the ninth player signed by Houston since the international signing period opened on July 2.

Quick Hits: Pence, Westbrook, Abreu, Astros

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While it’s not a mistake on the level of the Barry Zito contract, the Giants could come to regret the Hunter Pence deal, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. The $90MM contract won’t stop them from winning if they can surround him with quality players on undervalue contracts, but that’s obviously easier said than done. Here’s more from around baseball..

  • Jake Westbrook can read the writing on the wall and knows that his time with the Cardinals is likely over, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Between his struggles and the Cards’ wealth of young pitching, Westbrook isn’t expected to be placed on the postseason roster. Westbrook isn’t certain if he will pitch in 2014 and plans to discuss with his family in the offseason.
  • Ben Badler of Baseball America spoke with international sources to identify five teams that could sign Jose Dariel Abreu.  The White Sox, Nationals, Pirates, Red Sox, and Rangers look like the frontrunners for the Cuban standout with Texas possibly having the inside track on everyone.
  • Prior to a charity event earlier today, Astros owner Jim Crane said that he plans to spend money in 2014 to help turn the club around, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. “Now we have a nucleus to draw from. And so we got that established. I think in the off-season you’ll see Jeff [Luhnow], and he’s already said it, we’re going to fill some of those holes. As the kids come up through the system we can get competitive very quick. We lost a lot of one-run games. It’s pretty obvious where our needs are, and we’ll work on those in the offseason and start loosening the purse book,” Crane said.
  • Cubs president Theo Epstein says he will look first and foremost at candidates with managerial experience, tweets Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter) notes that the Dodgers hold an option on manager Don Mattingly for 2014.  The option is worth $1.4MM, sources tell Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi.

Mets Notes: Murphy, Young, Abreu, Tanaka

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Earlier today, the Mets officially announced their two-year extension of manager Terry Collins' contract. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports that pitching coach Dan Warthen also received a two-year contract, making him the only coach on the Mets' staff to secure a multiyear guarantee. Here's more on the Amazins…

  • The team will be open to trading Daniel Murphy this offseason, according to ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin. He cautions that the Mets don't necessarily expect to trade Murphy, but adds that they'll be open to moving him if the trade fills a larger hole like shortstop or the outfield. New York would move Eric Young Jr. to second base in that scenario to keep his much-needed speed in the lineup. Rubin feels that Young, who swiped a league-leading 46 bases this season, will be a starter on next year's team in some capacity.
  • Rubin also notes, once again, that Shin-Soo Choo is the only free agent the Mets would surrender a pick for (he would cost the Mets their second-rounder, as their first is protected). Choo will likely be too expensive for the Mets, however, especially in light of Hunter Pence's five-year, $90MM extension, so the Mets are likely to instead follow Boston's model from last offseason and sign multiple middle-tier free agents to shorter-term deals. Rubin points out that the Mets could make several external additions and still see a decrease in payroll due to the huge contracts they have coming off the books.
  • The Mets have upped their international scouting efforts, which could be a sign that they'll be more active on the global market this winter, tweets Marc Carig of Newsday.
  • Along those same lines, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the Mets have three scouts in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic to watch Jose Dariel Abreu. They also plan to do due diligence on Masahiro Tanaka, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Sherman is careful to add that the Mets are still seen as a long-shot to land Abreu.
  • After talking with a club official, Mike Puma of the New York Post (on Twitter) feels that the Mets will try to "get creative" in a trade for a big-ticket item before going the free agent route. Carig chimes in as well, adding that with so much money coming off the books, the Mets could take on a big contract should they go that route (Twitter link).
  • GM Sandy Alderson told reporters, including DiComo, that he's hopeful the team will be able to make a splash in free agency this offseason (Twitter links).

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Jose Dariel Abreu Cleared To Sign

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Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu has been declared a free agent and been cleared to sign with an MLB club, MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. The first baseman, who will be guided by Praver Shapiro, promises to become one of the most sought-after right-handed bats on the market. 

As Sanchez also notes, the Giants are among the teams that have been mentioned as possible suitors, along with the Red Sox, Rangers, Mets, White Sox, Pirates, and Marlins. At just 26 years of age, Abreu could indeed appeal to a variety of teams, even those not anticipating immediate contention. It will be interesting to see how his market takes shape after his forthcoming showcases.

As Baseball America's Ben Badler has noted, however, scouts have already had ample opportunity to get a look at Abreu given his consistent presence with the Cuban national team. According to Badler, the line on Abreu is that he lacks athleticism but is a polished hitter with real power. He notes, however, that scouts have split on how Abreu's skills will play against big league pitching.

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