Nationals Sign Keibert Ruiz To Eight-Year Extension
TODAY: The Nationals have formally announced the deal, confirming it’s an eight-year contract with a pair of club options for 2031 and 2032. The full financial breakdown isn’t known, but Barry Svrluga (Twitter link) reports that the deal is somewhat front-loaded. Ruiz will receive a signing bonus, and he’ll earn $7MM in 2028, and $9MM in each of the 2029 and 2030 seasons. The second year of the extension also “has a higher salary than he would normally receive in a last pre-arb year.”
MARCH 10: The Nationals are in agreement with 24-year-old backstop Keibert Ruiz on an eight-year contract extension that guarantees $50MM, as first reported by Wow Deportes (Twitter link). Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (Twitter link) reports that the contract also contains two club options. The Nationals are expected to formally announce the deal tomorrow, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Ruiz is an Octagon client.
It’s a long-term commitment from the rebuilding club to a player they consider the franchise catcher. Washington acquired the switch-hitting Ruiz at the 2021 trade deadline as part of the blockbuster that sent Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to the Dodgers. Ruiz and starter Josiah Gray headlined a four-player return. Both were upper level prospects and Ruiz would get a look as Washington’s primary backstop by the end of the ’21 campaign.
After playing in 23 games down the stretch, Ruiz got the nod as the Opening Day catcher last season. He played in 112 games and tallied 433 plate appearances, though his season was cut short when he had to be hospitalized after he was hit in the groin area by a foul ball. Before that unfortunate conclusion, Ruiz hit .251/.313/.360 in his first full season at the big league level. That offense was a little better than that of the average catcher, with the league receiving a .228/.295/.368 line from the position.
Ruiz didn’t hit for a ton of power, only connecting on seven home runs. He drew walks in a modest 6.9% of his trips to the dish. Ruiz demonstrated excellent pure contact skills, though, striking out in fewer than 12% of his plate appearances while putting the bat on the ball with 86.3% of his swings. Only Blue Jays star Alejandro Kirk showed comparable contact skills at the position.
Putting the ball in play has been Ruiz’s calling card throughout his professional career. The Venezuela native appeared among top prospect lists for a few seasons during his time in the Los Angeles farm system. Evaluators have long lauded his hit tool, though reviews on his power upside and defensive acumen were more middling.
According to public metrics, Ruiz’s defensive performance as a rookie was mixed. Statcast pegged him as a slightly below-average pitch framer. He rated positively for his ability to keep the ball in front of him, though. Statcast estimated he blocked five more pitches than average over the course of 865 innings. His four passed balls were manageable. He did a solid job controlling the running game, throwing out 28.2% of attempted basestealers (more than three percentage higher than the league mark).
While Ruiz isn’t a finished product, his rookie season more or less fell in line with his longstanding prospect profile. He proved his elite contact skills can translate against big league pitching and adequately managed things defensively. The Nats are surely hopeful he’ll tap into a little more extra-base impact over time. He’d connected on 21 home runs in 72 Triple-A contests in 2021, and while that was surely aided by a favorable offensive environment, it at least hints at double-digit homer potential for Ruiz at the MLB level.
Ruiz had between one and two years of service time. He wouldn’t have been eligible for arbitration until after the 2024 campaign and wasn’t headed to free agency until the 2027-28 offseason. This deal forecloses any chance he’ll go through arbitration and buys out at least three free agent years. If the club were to exercise both options, they’d extend their window of control by five seasons on a deal that could reach a decade in length.
It’s technically the third-largest guarantee for a player in that service bracket. Ke’Bryan Hayes holds the official record with last spring’s eight-year, $70MM extension with the Pirates. Andrelton Simmons secured $58MM over seven seasons on a 2014 extension with the Braves. Michael Harris signed an eight-year, $72MM deal with Atlanta last summer that, for all intents and purposes, also fits into the service group. Harris technically had less than a year of service at the time of his deal, though he was all but certain to finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting and secure a full service year by the time he signed in August.
Ruiz’s guarantee checks in a fair bit south of the Hayes and Harris contracts, though one could argue the latter two players were safer bets. Harris and Hayes are excellent defenders and had produced a little more offensively than Ruiz has to date, even if each comes with some questions about their overall impact potential at the plate. Early-career extensions for catchers haven’t been especially common; Ruiz becomes the first backstop with less than three years of service to sign an extension since Roberto Pérez in April 2017.
In exchange for upfront security, Ruiz concedes some long-term earning potential. That’s the case in every early-career extension of this ilk, though the potential ten-year term makes it particularly true in this instance. If Washington exercises both options, Ruiz wouldn’t get to free agency until leading into his age-34 campaign. Had he proceeded year-by-year through arbitration, he’d have first qualified for free agency at age 29.
Of course, doing so would’ve entailed the risk of injuries or underperformance derailing his career. Ruiz wasn’t a high-profile amateur signee, only signing for $140K back in 2014. It’s easy to understand the appeal of averting risk and securing the first life-changing payday of his career.
The Nationals, meanwhile, lock in a core player whose aging curve aligns with when the club should be more equipped to contend. They’re in for another non-competitive season in 2023 and look hard-pressed to compete by next year either. Ruiz is now locked in for a few years into the 2030’s, though, and the club obviously anticipates having plenty of chances to compete for a playoff spot in the medium to long-term future.
The contract’s financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported. The deal has an average annual value of $6.25MM that’ll count evenly against the luxury tax ledger for its duration. That’s not a concern in the short term; Washington’s projected 2023 payroll is more than $100MM south of this year’s threshold. The organization has paid the CBT in years past, however, so it’s not out of the question they’ll again push towards that threshold a few years down the line if the team’s competitive window comes clearer into view. The ongoing uncertainty about the Lerner family’s ownership plans clouds the picture, though ownership is clearly at least willing to sign off on future-oriented moves of this nature.
Washington will continue to audition younger players to hopefully join Ruiz in the core over the next couple seasons. Gray, shortstop CJ Abrams, left-hander MacKenzie Gore and yet-to-debut prospects like James Wood and Robert Hassell have joined the organization in deadline blockbusters. Right-hander Cade Cavalli is a former first-round pick and a highly-regarded pitching prospect. Not everyone in that group will find success, of course, but there’s now no shortage of intriguing players who will try to establish themselves at Nationals Park over the coming seasons.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Nationals Designate Jake McGee For Assignment
The Nationals have designated Jake McGee for assignment, per a team announcement. His spot on the roster will go to catcher Israel Pineda, whose previously reported selection to the big league roster has now been announced by the club. Catcher Keibert Ruiz was placed on the injured list, as expected, after taking an unfortunately placed foul ball to the groin during yesterday’s game. The Nationals announced that Ruiz has a testicular contusion.
It’s the third time this season that McGee has been designated for assignment. He opened the year with the Giants, the second season of a two-year free agent deal. After posting a 2.72 ERA across 59 2/3 innings in year one, the veteran southpaw only managed a 7.17 mark in 21 1/3 frames before being cut loose in mid-July. McGree cleared waivers, leaving the Giants on the hook for the bulk of this year’s $2.5MM salary while giving other teams a chance to add him for only the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum.
The Brewers took that opportunity, signing McGee to a major league deal. He allowed four runs in only 5 2/3 frames with Milwaukee before being DFA, and the last-place Nationals surprisingly added him off waivers. The 36-year-old spent a month in D.C., working 10 innings through 12 outings. He allowed another seven runs, including a pair of homers, while striking out ten and issuing five walks.
It’s been a tough go for McGee at all three stops, and he owns a cumulative 6.81 ERA through 37 innings. His 15.3% strikeout rate and 8.5% swinging strike percentage are each below league average, and they’re markedly down from last year’s respective marks. McGee has continued to average a solid 94.4 MPH on his four-seamer, but his results have taken a major step back.
The Nationals will place McGee on outright or release waivers within the next few days. The veteran would have the right to test the open market if he goes unclaimed, so there’s little distinction between the two in his case.
Nationals To Place Keibert Ruiz On Injured List, Select Israel Pineda
The Nationals will place catcher Keibert Ruiz on the 10-day injured list Friday and select the contract of fellow catcher Israel Pineda from Triple-A Rochester, as first reported by TalkNats (Twitter links). They’ll also recall righty Jordan Weems from Rochester. The team hasn’t formally announced the moves, though Pineda’s reps at PNY Sports have announced his promotion to the big leagues (Twitter link).
Ruiz was injured behind the plate yesterday when he took a foul ball off his groin. While he initially remained in the game for a few innings, he was eventually lifted and replaced by Riley Adams. Manager Dave Martinez told reporters after the game that Ruiz was headed to a hospital for further evaluation due to swelling in his testicles.
The 24-year-old Ruiz was widely considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball prior to his arrival on the big league scene, and he was one of the headline talents acquired in the blockbuster deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from D.C. to L.A. at the 2021 trade deadline. He’s had a solid but unspectacular showing at the plate in his first full year with the Nats, batting .251/.313/.360. That’s 11% worse than the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, but right in line with the average production among big league catchers.
The Nats didn’t necessarily need to replace Ruiz with another catcher, as they were already carrying three, with both Adams and Tres Barrera on the big league roster. They’ll stick with that three-catcher arrangement for now, though, and in doing so will get their first look at the 22-year-old Pineda, who’s had a breakout season across three minor league levels.
Pineda hit just .208/.260/.389 in High-A last year but has soared from that level all the way to Triple-A in 2022. He followed up a solid .264/.325/.443 showing in 67 High-A games with an excellent .280/.340/.538 output in 26 games at the Double-A level. He’s just 2-for-21 in his first six Triple-A contests, but Pineda’s combined .258/.325/.458 batting line this year is plenty productive — particularly for a catcher. Pineda has nabbed an impressive 41% of runners who’ve attempted to steal against him in parts of five professional seasons.
Pineda currently checks in as the No. 22 prospect at FanGraphs, No. 23 at Baseball America and No. 26 at MLB.com in what’s obviously considered a much-improved farm system following the complete roster tear-down in Washington. Given his performance in 2022, Pineda would likely have been added to the 40-man roster this winter anyhow, as the Nats would’ve needed to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 Draft. They’ll now get an early look at him, at least for the next few days.
Nationals Promote Keibert Ruiz
Aug. 30: The Nationals have formally recalled Ruiz from Triple-A Rochester and optioned Barrera in a corresponding move.
Aug. 29: The Nationals are calling up catching prospect Keibert Ruiz to make his team debut tomorrow, per a team announcement. The 23-year-old is widely-considered one of the team’s best prospects, if not the best. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America have him as the club’s number one, while FanGraphs has him second, behind only Josiah Gray, both of whom just joined the organization as part of the trade that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers.
Ruiz has long been viewed as an impact prospect, having been on Baseball America’s Top 100 list for each of the past four years. However, as he reached the upper levels of the minor leagues, it was difficult for him to get playing time in Los Angeles because the Dodgers already had an excellent catcher in Will Smith. Ruiz played just eight games for the Dodgers between last season and this one, logging only 15 plate appearances. As such, it made sense for the club to use him as a trade chip and bolster other areas of the team. With the Nationals having traded away Yan Gomes, they should be able to give Ruiz the run of playing time he never got in Los Angeles.
In Triple-A this year, Ruiz has put up tremendous numbers to back up that prospect status. In 72 games between the two organizations, he has a line .310/.377/.616, producing a wRC+ of 141. If he can produce anything close to that at the big league level, that would make him one of the best offensive catchers in the game.
Since trading Gomes, the Nats have been splitting the catching duties between Riley Adams and Tres Barrera, both of whom have been playing well. In 18 games since coming to Washington from Toronto in the Brad Hand trade, Adams has put up a line of .349/.451/.581, wRC+ of 177. For Barrera, he has a line of .270/.369/.393, wRC+ of 106 in 29 games this year. Both players have options and could potentially be sent down as the corresponding move for Ruiz, but rosters are expanding from 26 to 28 on September 1st, which could allow the club to carry all three. Since the Nats are out of contention, they can use the final month of the season to evaluate their catching options and determine how to proceed for the future.
Dodgers Acquire Max Scherzer And Trea Turner From Nationals For Four Prospects
In a stunning deadline blockbuster, the Dodgers acquired stars Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals. In exchange, Los Angeles sent back four prospects, including two of the top young talents in baseball. Catcher Keibert Ruiz, right-handers Josiah Gray and Gerardo Carrillo, and outfielder Donovan Casey are go to Washington. Scherzer waived his no-trade rights to facilitate the deal.
It had become clear in recent days the Nationals were likely to trade Scherzer, but the saga took its share of twists and turns along the way. The division-rival Padres were reportedly close to landing the three-time Cy Young award winner earlier in the afternoon. Other teams — the Dodgers among them — lurked on the periphery, though, and Los Angeles jumped in as the Nationals’ talks with San Diego never got across the finish line. In the process, the Dodgers also add one of the game’s best position players as part of a jaw-dropping package deal.
Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.
It’s the continuation of what was a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. That deal proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17 and was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. Perhaps most importantly, Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.
Scherzer now joins a rotation that already includes Walker Buehler and is expected to soon welcome back Clayton Kershaw from the injured list. That trio would make for an incredible top three in any postseason series, to say nothing of the presence of David Price and Tony Gonsolin as options for a fourth game and/or multi-inning work out of the bullpen. (Trevor Bauer remains on administrative leave after being accused of assault; it’s not clear if/when he’ll return to the team this season).
Of course, the Dodgers still need to solidify their chances of making a playoff series to unleash that three-headed monster in October. The Dodgers are almost certain to make the playoffs in some capacity, but the Giants somewhat surprisingly remain three games up on them in the NL West race. The competition at the top of the division from San Francisco and San Diego could leave the Dodgers staring down a one-game playoff. Acquiring Scherzer gives Los Angeles another ace to potentially take the ball in a Wild Card game, but it also increases their odds of winning the division and avoiding the contest altogether.
Incredibly, Scherzer is likely the second-most valuable part of the Dodgers’ haul. While Scherzer’s slated to hit free agency at the end of this season, Turner is controllable through 2022 via arbitration and every bit as productive. Turner has been a quality player since breaking into the big leagues in 2015, but he’s developed into a true superstar over the past couple seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, the 28-year-old is hitting .327/.378/.546 (145 wRC+) with 30 home runs and 33 stolen bases across 155 games and 679 plate appearances.
Turner’s one of the top few players in the sport, even if he rather remarkably didn’t make an All-Star team until this season. In addition to that high-end offense, he’s one of the game’s most dangerous baserunners and a fine defensive shortstop. FanGraphs estimates Turner’s been worth seven wins above replacement over the past two years, a mark that trails only Fernando Tatís Jr. among position players.
A good portion of Turner’s overall value comes from his aforementioned ability to play shortstop. It’s not precisely clear whether he’ll continue to do so in Los Angeles, where Corey Seager is also one of the game’s stars. Turner has some experience manning second base and in center field, and the Dodgers have never been shy about moving players around the diamond defensively.
Seager is slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, and he’ll be one of the top options on the open market. The Dodgers could use Turner in a utility-type capacity for the remainder of this season and plug him in as their regular shortstop come 2022 if Seager signs elsewhere.
Regardless of their long-term vision, it’s unquestionable that adding Turner to the roster will be a massive boon to a position player group that was already among the league’s best. Seager has missed two months after fracturing his hand, but he’s expected to return to the lineup this weekend. Turner, who landed on the injured list this week after testing positive for COVID-19 in what’ll apparently be his final game as a National, is out for at least the next week-plus.
Unsurprisingly, adding two of the sport’s best players will cost quite a bit — both financially and from a talent perspective. Scherzer is playing out the year on a $35MM salary, a little less than $12MM of which remains to be paid. That money is entirely deferred until 2028, part of a broader trend throughout the term of his deal. While Scherzer is an impending free agent, he’ll still be owed $15MM every year from 2022-28 in deferrals. The Dodgers are reportedly assuming the entirety of Scherzer’s remaining salary for 2021 (which won’t actually be paid out for seven years). Presumably, the Nationals will remain on the hook for all the deferred payments for time he’s already spent in Washington.
Turner, meanwhile, is making $13MM in his penultimate year of arbitration, which the Dodgers will also assume. Around $4.5MM of that sum remains to be paid, and he’ll surely be in line for a sizable raise this winter during his final trip through the arb process.
In addition to those salaries, the Dodgers are set to take on rather significant expenditures in luxury tax payments. The remainder of Scherzer’s contract contains a luxury tax hit in the $10MM range, while Turner’s CBT number exactly matches that of his real salary. Altogether, the Dodgers are adding something in the realm of $14.5MM to their luxury tax ledger.
That’s significant but apparently not much of a deterrent. Even before today’s acquisitions, the Dodgers had a CBT number north of $260MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That places them in the highest tax bracket, with Los Angeles subject to a 62.5% tax on any dollar spent over that mark. By assuming the remainder of Scherzer’s and Turner’s deals, the Dodgers are agreeing to pay somewhere in the range of $9MM in penalties on top of the money they’ll owe to the players.
Ownership is apparently willing to do exactly that in service of constructing a potential super-team. The defending World Series champions were arguably the most talented club in the league already, and they’ve added Scherzer, Turner and Danny Duffy to that loaded roster the day before the trade deadline.
To make that happen, Los Angeles has parted with a couple of baseball’s most talented young players. Ruiz has seemingly been on top prospect lists forever, but he’s still just 23 years old. He’s only picked up 15 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons, but he’d likely have accrued far more playing time were he playing in most other organizations.
With Will Smith entrenched as the Dodgers’ current and long-term catcher, there simply hasn’t been much opportunity for Ruiz. That said, the switch-hitting backstop has earned a major league look. He’s performed well at basically every minor league stop, and that’s continued in 2021.
Ruiz is hitting a massive .311/.381/.631 with 16 home runs across 231 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City. Baseball America just ranked him the league’s #16 overall prospect in their midseason top 100 update, lauding his elite bat-to-ball skills and suggesting he’s a solid enough defender to stick behind the plate. It’s not unreasonable to expect Ruiz to settle in as an above-average or All-Star caliber catcher given his rare offensive upside for the position.
Ruiz is already on the 40-man roster and would seem to be a big league caliber option for the Nats this season. He’s in his final minor league option year, so he’ll need to break camp with the Nationals in 2022.
Gray wasn’t too far behind Ruiz on BA’s top 100 list, checking in 56th overall and second in the Los Angeles system. The young starter draws praise for his fastball-slider combination and fantastic athleticism, which allows him to throw strikes at a strong rate. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Gray as the sport’s #29 prospect entering the season (he’s up to 21st following other players’ graduations), calling him a likely “mid-rotation stalwart” at his peak.
The 23-year-old made his major league debut last week and has pitched in a pair of big league games. Gray spent the rest of the year with Triple-A Oklahoma City, although an injured list stint caused him to miss a fair amount of time. He tossed 15 2/3 innings of 2.87 ERA ball before his promotion, his first crack at the minors’ top level.
Neither Ruiz nor Gray will accrue enough big league time to reach a full year of service in 2021. They won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season and aren’t likely to qualify for arbitration until the 2024-25 offseason. Both players have the opportunity to be long-term stalwarts in D.C., with many potential games featuring a Gray-Ruiz battery over the coming years. Gray still has all three options remaining.
Carrillo will also step directly onto Washington’s 40-man roster. His contract was selected last winter to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, but Carrillo hasn’t yet appeared in the majors. He’s spent the entire season with Double-A Tulsa, tossing 59 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA ball. The 22-year-old has struck out a strong 26.2% of batters faced but walked an alarming 10.9% of opponents.
Both Baseball America and FanGraphs suggest that lack of control is likely to eventually push Carrillo to the bullpen, but his mid-90’s sinker and power breaking ball could suit him quite well in short stints. Longenhagen slots Carrillo tenth in the Nationals system assuming the trade is completed.
Casey will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason or he’ll be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. The former 20th-round pick (2017) isn’t seen as a particularly strong prospect, but he’s having a quality season in a pitcher-friendly Double-A environment. The 25-year-old is hitting .296/.362/.462 with 11 home runs across 334 plate appearances with Tulsa. Casey has seen action at all three outfield positions.
The blockbuster completely changes the National League outlook. The Dodgers add two of the game’s best players to a tight divisional race, seemingly acquiring Scherzer out of the Padres grasp. With a few high-profile targets (José Berríos, Trevor Story and Kris Bryant chief among them) still having a chance to wind up on the move, the Dodgers’ in-state division rivals figure to be active themselves as the deadline approaches.
Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Nationals and Dodgers were in serious discussions about a deal involving Scherzer and Turner. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported Ruiz’s and Casey’s involvement in the deal. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported Gray’s inclusion, while Jim Bowden of the Athletic was first to identify Carrillo as part of the deal. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was first to report Scherzer’s willingness to waive his no-trade rights, and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported that the Dodgers would assume Scherzer’s and Turner’s remaining 2021 financial obligations.
Corey Seager Out At Least Four Weeks, Will Not Require Surgery On Broken Hand
MAY 16, 2:07 pm: Fortunately, Seager will not require surgery, Roberts announced this afternoon (via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). His specific timetable for a potential return remains unclear, although he will miss at least a month, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. In the interim, Gavin Lux will be Los Angeles’ primary shortstop. Seager fractured the fifth metacarpal in his right hand, Roberts said (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). The Dodgers are recalling catcher Keibert Ruiz to take his place on the active roster.
MAY 16, 1:21 am: X-rays revealed a fractured right hand for Seager, manager Dave Roberts told MLB.com’s Juan Toribio and other reporters post-game. Seager will be placed on the 10-day IL prior to Sunday’s game, and the timetable for his return isn’t yet clear.
MAY 15: Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager left tonight’s game in the fifth inning after being hit in the right hand/wrist area by a pitch from Marlins southpaw Ross Detwiler. Seager was immediately removed and didn’t take first base, as Sheldon Neuse replaced Seager as a pinch-runner.
There isn’t yet any word on the severity of Seager’s injury, though even a day-to-day type of absence wouldn’t be good news for a Dodger team that already has plenty of key personnel on the injured list. Just today, AJ Pollock joined such names as Cody Bellinger, Tony Gonsolin, David Price, Brusdar Graterol, Scott Alexander, and Zach McKinstry on the short-term IL, while Dustin May and Edwin Rios have suffered season-ending injuries. Losing Seager would be a particularly tough blow considering both his status as one of the game’s best shortstops, and because the Dodgers’ depth at the position is already thinned by the absence of utilityman McKinstry.
In the event of a lengthy absence for Seager, Chris Taylor or Gavin Lux would likely take the reins at shortstop, though moving Taylor out of center field could require Mookie Betts to shift over to center and thus open up a space in right field. A cleaner move would be Lux to shortstop, Max Muncy to second base and an Albert Pujols/Yoshi Tsutsugo combination at first base, though Lux has struggled badly at the plate this season. Fortunately for Los Angeles, Bellinger and McKinstry are both close to beginning rehab assignments, though that wouldn’t help in the short term if Seager is out.
Seager is hitting .265/.361/.422 with four home runs over his first 169 plate appearances of the season. Though his 121 wRC+ is down from the 152 wRC+ posted over 232 PA in 2020, a Seager who stays healthy and productive throughout the season will be well-positioned to be one of the top free agents of the 2021-22 offseason.
Dodgers Place Will Smith On 10-Day IL, Promote Keibert Ruiz
The Dodgers have placed catcher Will Smith on the 10-day injured list due to neck inflammation. Top catching prospect Keibert Ruiz has been recalled from the Dodgers’ alternate training site and is in line to make his Major League debut.
Smith’s neck issues led to an early exit from the Dodgers’ 6-0 win over the Padres last Wednesday, though the problem initially arose after a collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. over a week ago. The injury doesn’t seem overly serious, as manager Dave Roberts told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other reporters yesterday that Smith was feeling “not pain, but really the stiffness moving his head side to side,” yet an IL stint will allow the catcher to fully recover and also allow Los Angeles to add depth behind the plate. Ruiz will join Austin Barnes as the only catchers on the active roster, and given Ruiz’s potential, it’s fair to wonder if L.A. will give him a solid amount of playing time.
Ruiz has been a regular on top-100 prospect lists for the last three seasons, entering 2020 rated 73rd by MLB Pipeline, 79th by Baseball Prospectus, 81st by Baseball America, and 91st by Fangraphs. The 22-year-old has hit .299/.351/.420 over 1580 career plate appearances in the minors, though he only has 40 Triple-A plate appearances to his credit. The lack of Triple-A playing time was due to both a finger injury and rather a lackluster .659 OPS over 310 PA for the Dodgers’ Double-A affiliate.
Baseball America’s scouting report (subscription required) mentions that Ruiz “struggled with motivation” after not starting the season at Triple-A, and his production notably picked up once he did get promoted. The switch-hitting Ruiz’s “elite-hand eye coordination and ability to manipulate the barrel give him the foundation of a plus hitter, and he almost never swings and misses,” according to BA, though Ruiz is also hampered by a lack of aggressiveness at the plate and a frequency to fall behind in counts. Ruiz has shown some good defensive potential, though Fangraphs’ report notes that scouts became more “mixed” on his ability behind the plate during the 2019 season.
Dodgers Notes: Seager, Bullpen Trades, Ryu
The Dodgers announced today that they’ve activated Corey Seager from the injured list and optioned first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Seager, 25, will ultimately miss just under a month due to a strained left hamstring. He’ll now rejoin a Dodgers roster that recently welcomed David Freese back from the injured list and is set to get A.J. Pollock back as well. Los Angeles still has a 13.5 game lead on the second-place Diamondbacks and will likely be in an all-the-more commanding position with several key players back to full strength. However, the L.A. front office still has some work to do in the three weeks leading up to the trade deadline. Here’s a look at the latest chatter on the Dodgers…
- The Dodgers have “varying levels of interest in multiple Giants relievers,” writes MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles harbor some degree of interest in each of Will Smith, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson and Reyes Moronta. That quartet likely appeals to the majority of contending clubs throughout the game, though, and there’s no indication within Morosi’s report that there are any substantive talks between the two sides. The Dodgers are loath to part with any of their top four prospects for a rental reliever, making Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Keibert Ruiz and their own Will Smith unlikely to change hands in any type of deal for one of San Francisco’s short-term assets.
- If the recent comments from Pirates GM Neal Huntington didn’t sufficiently quash the Dodgers/Felipe Vazquez connection, Morosi writes that Pittsburgh would require “at least two” of the four aforementioned top prospects (Lux, May, Smith, Ruiz) to headline a Vazquez deal. Between that and Huntington’s declaration that the team’s “expectation and anticipation is that Felipe will be closing out playoff games, be it this year or in the future with us,” it doesn’t seem wise to bank on Vazquez landing in Los Angeles (or anywhere else, for that matter).
- In a more high-level look at the Dodgers’ trade needs, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com points out that the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers have not been a team that has been willing to deal away its very best prospects, making a high-profile acquisition of Smith, Brad Hand, Vazquez, etc. less likely than some trades to more affordably acquire some second-tier relievers on the market. He suggests that a reunion with Watson or Blue Jays righty Daniel Hudson is more plausible than a marquee splash. (To be clear, those are speculative examples listed by Gurnick rather than specific trades that the Dodgers are actively pursuing.)
- Hyun-Jin Ryu‘s gamble on accepting the qualifying offer made by the Dodgers could prove one of the wisest decisions of the offseason, writes Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times, who notes that Ryu is now positioned to cash in on a major contract (without the burden of draft compensation, as players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers). Indeed, over his past 191 1/3 regular-season innings, Ryu has a 1.83 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate. More broadly, Castillo’s column is a terrific look at the long road that Ryu took from intriguing high-school prospect coveted by the Dodgers and Twins to 2019 All-Star Game starter. Dodgers fans who have not previously familiarized themselves with Ryu’s path to stardom in the United States will want to be sure to give the story a read-through.
NL Notes: Realmuto, Dodgers, Braves, Markakis, Cardinals, Gray
The Dodgers‘ recent acquisition of Russell Martin hasn’t taken them out of the running for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. To the contrary, the Dodgers are still discussing a potential Realmuto deal with Miami, and catching prospect Keibert Ruiz is among the names Miami is targeting. Although he opened the 2018 season at just 19 years of age, Ruiz spent the entire season with the Dodgers’ Double-A affiliate. Ruiz was nearly five years younger than the average player in the Double-A Texas League, but the switch-hitter nevertheless held his own, hitting .268/.328/.401 with a dozen home runs and 14 doubles in a career-high 415 plate appearances. Ruiz also demonstrated preternatural bat-to-ball abilities, striking out in only eight percent of his plate appearances. He currently ranks 36th among all MLB prospects on the latest rankings from Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs.
Here’s more from the Senior Circuit…
- Nick Markakis told reporters on today’s conference call that he had larger offers in both overall value and in guaranteed length but felt strongly about returning to the Braves for a fifth season (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Markakis re-upped with Atlanta on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $6MM — a $4MM salary in 2019 and a $2MM buyout on a $6MM option for the 2020 season — and general manager Alex Anthopoulos indicated that the unexpectedly affordable rate could help the Braves accomplish some other offseason goals. “Nick coming back on these terms allow us to pursue other things, have financial flexibility to improve the club in other ways,” said Anthopoulos. (David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that the team’s next move may not occur until Spring Training is underway, though.) Burns notes that Markakis won’t suit up for all 162 games next season, as he did in 2018, which the club believes will help the 35-year-old to stay fresher and to avoid a second-half slump.
- Signing Paul Goldschmidt to an extension could be a bit more complicated for the Cardinals than many would think, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic explores in his latest column (subscription required). Goldschmidt has already signed what turned out to be one exceptionally team-friendly extension, and as the former union representative for the D-backs, he takes particular umbrage with team owners’ increasing reluctance toward spending in free agency. Saxon wonders whether Goldschmidt will feel obligated to push for a maximum-value contract given his views, though he emphasizes that Goldschmidt himself has declined to discuss his feelings about a new contract. And, as Saxon further writes, there are no indications that talks between the Cardinals and Goldschmidt’s agent, Casey Close, have begun.
- Sonny Gray spoke with reporters about his decision to sign an extension with the Reds before ever suiting up for a single game with the team (link via Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Gray noted that his relationship with newly hired pitching coach Derek Johnson, who previously was his pitching coach at Vanderbilt, played a significant role in the decision. The Reds also have one of Gray’s college battery-mates, Curt Casali, on the roster as a backup to starter Tucker Barnhart. Gray also explained that his late father was a Reds fan, adding that the first MLB game he ever attended as a child was at Great American Ball Park. As to what prompted his struggles in New York this past season, Gray was uncertain but said he feels stronger having endured the struggles. “I honestly think you can go through some hardships at times and come out the other end better than you ever were,” Gray said.
Rumors: Grandal, Mets, Dodgers, Tigers, Castellanos
The Mets found a veteran catcher in free agency earlier this month when they signed Wilson Ramos to a two-year, $19MM guarantee. However, the club had been willing to pay a much steeper price for the premier backstop on the open market, Yasmani Grandal, whom it offered a four-year, $60MM contract, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports. Grandal rejected the Mets’ proposal, leading them to sign Ramos for far less.
The Mets’ offer to Grandal was in the ballpark of the four-year, $64MM prediction MLBTR made for accomplished catcher entering the offseason. Of course, because Grandal declined the Dodgers’ one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer after the season, the team that signs him will have to pay more than just money to secure his services. In the Mets’ case, adding Grandal would have meant surrendering their second-highest draft pick and $500K in international bonus pool space in 2019.
Aside from the Mets, the 30-year-old Grandal has also drawn reported interest from the Dodgers, Reds, Angels and White Sox this winter. Other than the White Sox, who traded Omar Narvaez and signed James McCann, those teams haven’t addressed the catcher position in any meaningful way since last season ended. As such, it stands to reason the Dodgers, Reds and Angels could still be among the teams in on Grandal. The Dodgers are “unlikely” to re-sign Grandal, though, unless he unexpectedly settles for a short-term contract, according to Castillo.
In the event the Dodgers do bring back Grandal, he’d give them another righty-capable batter, which is something the lefty-heavy club is reportedly seeking after trading away outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. Grandal is one of several such hitters who have been connected to the Dodgers this offseason, with Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos also among those in the mix. But the Dodgers have found the Tigers’ asking price to be prohibitive, per Castillo, who hears that Detroit initially requested either young outfielder Alex Verdugo or catcher prospect Keibert Ruiz from Los Angeles.
Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers balked at giving up either Verdugo or Ruiz for the defensively challenged Castellanos, who’s only under control for another year (at a projected $11.1MM). The 22-year-old Verdugo ranks as the Dodgers’ No. 1 prospect and baseball’s 32nd-best farmhand at MLB.com, and could be a prominent member of their 2019 outfield or a major piece in an offseason trade revolving around someone more valuable than Castellanos. Ruiz, 20, is the Dodgers’ second-ranked prospect at MLB.com, which places him 39th overall. Along with fellow catcher prospect Will Smith, Ruiz could be part of the long-term solution for the club behind the plate.