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Luis Robert’s Slow Start

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April tends to be relatively quiet on the transaction front. The early part of the month saw a handful of extensions as talks that had begun in Spring Training carried into the regular season. There probably won't be much more significant hot stove activity for the next couple months. That's largely because all but three teams -- the White Sox, Marlins and Rockies -- went into the season with some measure of hope about competing. The trio of clearly noncompetitive clubs had already moved most of their realistic trade candidates who'd bring back prospect talent.

Luis Robert Jr. is an exception. The White Sox held onto their former All-Star center fielder over the offseason. Robert was coming off the worst season of his career. He lost nearly two months early in the season with a hip flexor strain and was unproductive when healthy. He hit .224/.278/.379 with 14 homers in 100 games. Robert looked nothing like the player who'd finished 12th in AL MVP balloting one year earlier.

It made for a difficult evaluation. Robert has shown star upside -- not only in the aforementioned 2023 campaign but in an injury-shortened '21 season when he hit .338/.378/.567 over 68 games. Last year's White Sox were en route to the worst season in the modern era. Maybe Robert's .216/.253/.302 showing in the second half reflected some amount of mental fatigue. At 27 years old, he should remain in his prime.

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Dodgers, White Sox Previously Discussed Luis Robert Jr. Trade

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The Dodgers and White Sox previously engaged in trade talks that would’ve sent center fielder Luis Robert Jr. to Los Angeles in exchange for outfielder James Outman and an unnamed “front-line prospect,” according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Nightengale notably adds that talks between the sides have been tabled at present, however, and it’s unclear whether these discussions occurred recently or at some point during this past offseason.

That the Dodgers would have interest in Robert is fairly unsurprising. The center fielder was among the most obvious trade candidates of the offseason with Chicago coming off the worst season in MLB history. Robert himself was part of that brutal campaign, as he was limited to just 100 games by injuries and did not perform up to expectations even when healthy with a .224/.278/.379 slash line (84 wRC+). While he stole 23 bases and slugged 14 homers during that time, he was held back by a 33.2% strikeout rate, the highest of his career.

That’s not much of a platform season to market to potential suitors. Between that and the $17MM guaranteed to Robert this season between his $15MM salary and the $2MM buyout of a $20MM team option for 2026, it’s hardly a surprise that the White Sox weren’t able to find the right value for their franchise center fielder. Despite his weak 2024 campaign, however, he did garner interest from clubs like the Reds and Giants this winter. It’s not hard to see why, given that Robert is not too far removed from a 2023 campaign that saw him make his first career All-Star team, finish 12th in AL MVP voting, and win the Silver Slugger award in center field. In 145 games that year, he posted a 128 wRC+, slugged 38 homers, swiped 20 bags, and posted a 5-win campaign (4.9 fWAR, 5.3 bWAR).

That tantalizing upside appears to have intrigued the Dodgers as well. It was reported back in December that Robert was among a number of possible alternatives to Teoscar Hernandez that L.A. was weighing a pursuit of if they were unable to bring the slugger back into the fold via free agency, though that thought experiment ultimately went nowhere when Hernandez re-signed with the club shortly thereafter. Even after bringing Hernandez into the fold, however, adding Robert could make at least some sense for the Dodgers. With Robert installed in center field, L.A. would be much less reliant on Miguel Rojas (and, eventually, Hyeseong Kim) at second base and could instead install switch-hitter Tommy Edman at the position. A stronger defender on the infield like Edman could help Mookie Betts improve as he works on learning shortstop, or could even provide the Dodgers with the ability to begin using Edman at short and Betts at the keystone if the experiment of playing Betts at the most valuable defensive position on the diamond does not work out.

Between the additional flexibility Robert would provide the Dodgers in how they deploy Edman and his previous heights as a star player, it’s not hard to see why the club would have some level of interest in him. The discussions reported by Nightengale suggest that Outman would be a key part of the return, which could make plenty of sense for both sides. Outman, 28 next month, finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2023 with an excellent debut season where he hit .248/.353/.437 (118 wRC+) as Los Angeles’s regular center fielder. Unfortunately, his sophomore season did not go nearly as well as he struck out in 35.3% of his plate appearances, posted a wRC+ of just 54, and was below replacement level in 53 games.

In some regards, Outman is a somewhat similar player to Robert, albeit with a far lower ceiling. Outman currently isn’t slated to hit free agency until after the 2030 season, which could also be attractive to the rebuilding White Sox. He evidently wouldn’t have been the only piece Chicago received had the trade been consummated, though it’s unclear whether the “front-line” prospect involved would be a top-100 type talent like southpaw Jackson Ferris or shortstop Alex Freeland or perhaps a less flashy name like righty Nick Frasso or outfielder Kendall George. What the hypothetical trade would have ended up looking like, it’s clear the sides aren’t currently discussing a deal at this point. Perhaps they could circle back and reignite talks closer to the trade deadline, when Robert is sure to be on the market ahead of the final guaranteed year of his contract.

White Sox Discussed Luis Robert With Reds, Giants; Trade Before Spring Training Seen As Unlikely

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The second White Sox rebuild of the past decade has stripped the roster of nearly all its notable veterans, but center fielder Luis Robert Jr. stands as a holdover from the team’s brief two-year run as a playoff club and a still-prominent trade candidate. Had Robert enjoyed a healthy 2024 campaign he’d likely already be gone, because at his best (e.g. 2023), he’s proven to be a five-tool, MVP-caliber talent. Staying on the field, however, has been problematic.

Robert played only 100 games in 2024 and didn’t seem to be at full strength for much of that time. His .224/.278/.379 slash was the worst production of his career. That’s made it tough for the White Sox to find a middle ground in trade conversations. Selling low on such a talented player when he’s signed through 2027 — $15MM in 2025, plus a pair of $20MM club options for 2026-27 — would be a major missed opportunity if Robert is able to bounce back with a healthy season.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports this morning that those hurdles impacted trade talks with both the Giants earlier in the offseason and, much more recently, with the Reds. Cincinnati and Chicago were discussing Robert as recently as last week and this past weekend, per Rosenthal, with infield prospect Edwin Arroyo among the names who could potentially go back to the Sox. Beyond the difficulty of agreeing on which prospects would be involved, the two parties didn’t see eye to eye on how much money the White Sox should include to cover some of the $17MM still guaranteed to Robert. (There’s also a $2MM buyout on his 2026 club option.) At this point, the Sox aren’t likely to trade Robert prior to spring training, per the report.

Until recently, it seemed as though the Reds had exhausted the majority — if not the entirety — of their 2025 payroll budget. A late agreement with Main Street Sports/FanDuel Sports Network for their 2025 television broadcasts provided an unexpected bump to president of baseball Nick Krall’s budget for the upcoming season, however. That produced renewed talks with reliever Carlos Estevez — who ultimately agreed to sign with the Royals instead — and likely facilitated the signing of Austin Hays (one year, $5MM) and yesterday’s acquisition of Taylor Rogers, whom the Reds will pay $6MM next year. (The Giants are covering the other $6MM of his 2025 salary.)

That’s $11MM in new payroll added by the Reds (a net $9.5MM over two league-minimum players) since that late TV deal was brokered. Robert alone is guaranteed more than that; even if the White Sox had been willing to kick in $6MM to bring the price down to the same $11MM the Reds wound up spending this past week, that would’ve only addressed one spot on the roster. Cincinnati would still be looking for more bullpen help and presumably doing so with at a much lower rate than the $6MM they’ll end up paying to Rogers.

While Arroyo is just one of the names the two parties discussed, it’s worth noting that like Robert, he’s a volatile player who’s difficult to evaluate at present. The 21-year-old middle infielder was a second-round pick out of Puerto Rico by the Mariners back in 2021 and was one of the key prospects shipped to the Reds in 2022’s Luis Castillo blockbuster. He ranked among the sport’s top-100 prospects in each of the past two offseasons but suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder last spring. That injury required surgery and wiped out his entire 2024 campaign.

Arroyo recovered in time to play in last year’s Arizona Fall League but in 18 games slashed just .253/.309/.333. That’s not a big enough sample to make a meaningful evaluation, of course, but it’s nonetheless a far cry from the 2022 production that helped catapult him onto the national prospect radar; that season saw Arroyo hit a combined .293/.366/.480 as an 18-year-old primarily facing much older and more experienced competition in A-ball.

A trade involving Robert could yet come together, but the challenges encountered by both the Giants and the Reds in their efforts to pry him from Chicago will persist. The Sox don’t want to take a middling return for a player who could command a genuine prospect haul if healthy. Any potential trade partner will be reluctant to trade its very best talent in exchange for a player who missed two months with a hip injury and was 16% worse than an average hitter in 2024 — even if he popped 38 homers as recently as 2023. The money owed to Robert is a bargain if he’s healthy, but that’s a major if. Plus, many teams have spent the vast majority of their offseason budget by this point on the calendar.

Back in late November, one rival general manager who’d spoken to the Sox about Robert rather plainly laid out the difficulty in working out a trade, telling USA Today’s Bob Nightengale at the time: “You’ve got to hope he finally stays healthy and can be the player everyone envisioned all along, but the White Sox are acting like he’s some big star center fielder and are asking for your top prospects.”

The Sox weren’t in an entirely dissimilar situation with Dylan Cease a year ago at this time. Cease, who had two seasons of club control remaining then, had finished runner-up in 2022 American League Cy Young voting before a pedestrian 2023 campaign in which he posted a 4.58 ERA with a one-mile drop in average fastball velocity and a corresponding dip in strikeout rate. He came back with a vengeance in spring training with stuff that looked dominant enough to generate a second act on his trade market. The Padres wound up acquiring him on March 13.

It’s possible a similar situation could play out with Robert. If he looks healthy and dynamic early in Cactus League play, perhaps there’ll be some renewed interest and diminished trepidation from interested teams wary about the explosive outfielder’s health.

If not in spring training, even a few weeks of strong play early in the 2025 campaign could pique the interest of other teams. That could create a situation similar to the one that saw the Marlins trade Luis Arraez (also to the Padres) early last May. Miami’s catastrophic start to the season effectively eliminated them from playoff contention just weeks into the 2024 season. The ChiSox already know full well they won’t contend in 2025. If Robert gets out to a torrid start and looks like the 2023 version of himself, putting him on the market in late April or early May would reduce the risk of an injury occurring in the months leading up to the trade deadline while also giving a trade partner an extra few months of production.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco pointed out last night when discussing the Guardians’ challenges in acquiring a center fielder, there simply haven’t been many — or really, any — impact options on the trade or free agent markets at the position over the past couple years. That applies not only to the Guards but also to the Giants, Reds, Phillies and other clubs that have sought center field upgrades recently. Clubs like the Red Sox, Mariners, Twins, Tigers, Royals, Pirates and Astros have also coveted right-handed bats and/or outfielders. Any could have interest in a revitalized Robert.

For now, the Sox’ focus will be on getting and keeping Robert as healthy as possible. If a strong spring or April showing rekindles his trade market, the past interest from both San Francisco and Cincinnati will be worth bearing in mind as the South Siders field new offers.

White Sox Notes: Free Agency, Robert, Montgomery

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White Sox general manager Chris Getz spoke with reporters on Thursday in advance of this weekend’s SoxFest. The second-year baseball operations leader indicated the team was unlikely to make any significant moves for the remainder of the offseason.

“For the most part, we feel like we’ve got our roster. Yeah, it’s just a matter of getting to Spring Training and prepping for Opening Day,” Getz said (link via MLB.com’s Scott Merkin). While he left open the possibility for “an addition here and there,” it doesn’t seem the Sox expect to do much else before the season gets underway.

That’s to be expected. The White Sox are coming off the worst season in modern baseball history. They certainly weren’t going to be major players in free agency. They’ve somewhat surprisingly signed five MLB free agent deals this winter, though none goes beyond this year. Martín Pérez ($5MM), Josh Rojas ($3.5MM), Mike Tauchman ($2MM), Austin Slater ($1.8MM) and Bryse Wilson ($1.1MM) are guaranteed a combined $13.4MM. They’ve added backup catcher Matt Thaiss and lefty reliever Cam Booser via minor trades.

While the Sox surely hope they’ll be able to flip some of their free agent acquisitions at the deadline, no one from that group is going to net more than a marginal return even if they play well in the first half. Chicago’s biggest decisions were tabbing Will Venable as manager and sending Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox for a four-player prospect return headlined by Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery. Crochet was easily the Sox’s top remaining trade chip.

That title now falls to Luis Robert Jr. The star center fielder is coming off the worst season of his career. Robert hit .224/.278/.379 through 425 plate appearances. Few players had a sharper drop-off relative to their 2023 production. Robert finished 12th in AL MVP balloting two years ago. He played elite defense and hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers and 20 stolen bases.

Robert is the only player on the Sox roster who has the ceiling to net them a franchise-changing trade return. That very likely wouldn’t be on the table this winter, though, so it’s logical for Chicago to hold him until the deadline. While Getz didn’t firmly shut the door on trading Robert before Opening Day, he didn’t sound eager to deal the 27-year-old.

“We’re open minded, we’re not looking to move anyone,” the GM said (link via Andrew Seligman of The Associated Press). “With that being said, there are other teams that are working through the free agent process perhaps and there could be some opportunities to have dialogue. We do feel like the majority of our moves have been made. But with that being said, we’re not quite there yet and I look forward to getting this group together out in Arizona.”

Robert will be the Sox’s most important player in the season’s first few months. He’s playing on a $15MM salary in the final guaranteed season of his pre-debut contract extension. He’s guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on $20MM club options covering the 2026-27 campaigns. If Robert finds anything near his ’23 form, Chicago would market two and a half seasons of club control over a star outfielder. If he plays like he did last season, they’d be looking at middling returns on a player who might get bought out at the end of the season. The Sox have already seen the latter situation play out with Tim Anderson and Eloy Jiménez, each of whom struggled enough to get bought out of what initially seemed to be very team-friendly contracts.

In either case, it’s hard to envision Robert remaining on the White Sox into the 2026 season. By that point, Colson Montgomery could be the new face of the franchise. The lefty-hitting shortstop was one of the sport’s top 15 prospects at this time last year. Montgomery underperformed in his first crack at Triple-A. He hit .214/.329/.381 while striking out at a 28.6% clip during his age-22 season. That has dinged his prospect value to some extent, though he still ranks among Baseball America’s Top 50 minor league talents.

The White Sox added Montgomery to their 40-man roster in November. That was a formality to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. They’d be justified in starting him back in Triple-A, but Getz left the door open for the former first-round pick to take the shortstop job out of camp. “He’s going to get a lot of opportunity come Spring Training,” Getz said (via Merkin). “We expect to see Colson Montgomery playing shortstop for the White Sox this year at some point. … He’s going to get a shot to make the club. Now, we’ve got other players on the roster that are going to compete for shortstop opportunities.”

Brooks Baldwin, who started nine games at shortstop last year, is the only returning player who logged any time at that position. Rojas has been their only major league infield acquisition this winter. He had a bit of run at shortstop early in his career with Arizona but hasn’t played there in four years. Chase Meidroth, whom the White Sox acquired in the Crochet deal, is coming off a .293/.437/.400 showing with Boston’s Triple-A club. His bat seems big league ready, but most scouting reports suggest he’s a better defensive fit at second or third base who can play shortstop on occasion. Meidroth is not yet on the 40-man roster, but it stands to reason that Chicago will give him an MLB look at some point this year.

Dodgers Exploring Alternatives To Teoscar Hernandez

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Negotiations between the Dodgers and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez remain at an impasse, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. While L.A. and Hernandez have long expressed mutual interest in a reunion following a successful 2024 campaign that ended in a World Series championship, previous reporting indicated a “gap” remained between the sides in negotiations. Evidently, that gap remains, as Rosenthal reports that Los Angeles brass are “exploring” right-handed alternatives to Hernandez they could add to their lineup instead. The three names Rosenthal lists as potential options for the Dodgers are free agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim, Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki, and White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Rosenthal emphasizes, however, that it’s not yet clear how serious the Dodgers are about those pursuits.

Of the three names floated, Suzuki is perhaps the best replacement for Hernandez from the Dodgers’ perspective. He hit .283/.366/.482 with 21 homers and 16 steals in 132 games for the Cubs last year. His high on-base percentage and lesser power make him a somewhat different flavor of hitter than Hernandez, but Suzuki’s 138 wRC+ actually has the edge over Hernandez’s own figure of 134. Both are generally regarded as below-average defenders in an outfield corner, but either one would provide the Dodgers with a big right-handed bat to add to their lineup and a regular for the outfield corner not occupied by Michael Conforto.

Good a fit as Suzuki would be, however, acquiring him may be easier said than done. Rosenthal reports that the Cubs are “not inclined” to trade Suzuki this winter. The club entered the offseason with something of a logjam in the outfield due to the presence of both Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, and that logjam only grew when the club added star right fielder Kyle Tucker in a trade with the Astros earlier this month. Since then, the Cubs dealt Bellinger to the Yankees. While that leaves them in a similar situation as the one they entered the winter in, with two right fielders on the roster and Suzuki likely relegated to regular DH duties, the club still seems to prefer keeping Suzuki rather than parting ways with the talented hitter.

Rosenthal suggests that the Cubs feel that Suzuki would be difficult to replace due to a thin market for impactful right-handed hitters. Aside from Suzuki, the middle of Chicago’s lineup is occupied by switch-hitter Ian Happ as well as lefty bats Tucker and Michael Busch, so Suzuki’s presence adds some much-needed right-handed thump to that mix. Suzuki also holds a no-trade clause, but his previously reported desire to avoid being a full-time DH could make the possibility of a trade that would make him L.A.’s regular right fielder a palatable option. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that the Dodgers could include a talented right-handed bat such as Andy Pages in a package for Suzuki’s services in order to bridge that gap, though six seasons of team control over Pages would be a steep price to pay. Suzuki is under contract for two more seasons and will make $19MM in both 2025 and ’26 before hitting free agency.

Robert, meanwhile, certainly has the potential to match Hernandez’s offensive impact but has yet to demonstrate consistency in the majors. The 27-year-old endured the worst season of his career in 2024 as he hit just .224/.278/.379 (84 wRC+) while striking out at a 33.2% clip, but hit a much more palatable .287/.331/.511 (129 wRC+) over the prior three seasons and is just one season removed from a 4.9 fWAR 2023 campaign. Robert pairs that volatile but potentially impactful bat with impressive speed (he stole 23 bases in just 100 games this year) and quality defense in center field. He also comes with plenty of injury risk, as 2024 was just the second time in his career he played in even 100 games due to a number of trips to the injured list over the years.

Rosenthal suggests that if the Dodgers were to take a chance on the talented-but-inconsistent Robert, he’d slot into center field for Los Angeles. It’s unclear whether that would mean moving Mookie Betts back to right field and playing Tommy Edman at shortstop, or perhaps a move to second base for Edman that pushes Gavin Lux to the bench (or off the team via trade) and leaves right field open for some combination of Andy Pages and James Outman. Robert is guaranteed $17MM in the form of a $15MM salary and a $2MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2026, but could be retained via club options through the end of the 2027 season if acquired. In terms of acquisition cost, it’s possible that Robert would be less pricey than Suzuki given that Rosenthal reports that the White Sox don’t expect to land multiple top prospects in exchange for Robert, though they would want a “meaningful piece” in return for the All-Star.

Kim is somewhat unique as a potential target for multiple reasons. As a free agent, he’d cost the Dodgers nothing but money as opposed to a trade for Suzuki or Robert that would require some sort of player or prospect return headed the other way. He’s also an infielder who derives much of his value from being a plus defender all across the infield dirt. That makes him a tricky positional fit for a Dodgers club that already figures to juggle Betts, Lux, and Miguel Rojas up the middle. While the club could simply move Betts back to right field, it’s possible they’d prefer to keep him on the dirt and play him alongside Kim with one at shortstop and the other at second base. That would leave Lux without a position, however, and also leave a hole in the outfield left to be internal options or another external addition.

Kim is also by far the weakest hitter of the three at the plate and an undeniable downgrade from Hernandez offensively. While Kim has improved leaps and bounds at the plate after a lackluster rookie season, he’s still more or less a league average hitter with a 101 wRC+ in 2024 and a .250/.336/.385 (106 wRC+) line overall since becoming a regular in 2022. It’s also worth noting that he seems ticketed for the injured list to start the season after undergoing shoulder surgery back in September, though Rosenthal reports that he’s targeting a return to the diamond “early” in the 2025 season. Even so, that would leave the Dodgers utilizing their internal options to fill out the lineup card until Kim is ready to return to action.

Reds Among Teams Interested In Luis Robert Jr.

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Apart from Garrett Crochet, Luis Robert Jr. is the biggest trade chip the White Sox have on offer as the club looks to continue its rebuilding process.  Though 2024 was another injury-marred season for Robert, Sox GM Chris Getz told the Chicago Sun-Times’ Daryl Van Schouwen (multiple links) and other reporters that his team has “gotten a lot of interest” in Robert’s services during the Winter Meetings.  The Reds appear to be one of those interested parties, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that the Ohio team has “at least checked in on Robert.”

It’s no secret that Getz is asking for a lot in return for Robert, and the general manager defended his stance by saying that the White Sox are looking for a trade package commensurate to “the talent that he brings to the table” since Robert’s “tools haven’t changed.”

“Obviously, the injury last year was disruptive to [Robert’s] production, but the reason there’s so much interest is because maybe a team feels like they can capture something that perhaps didn’t show up last year,” Getz said.

Cincinnati is an interesting potential trade partner because the Reds also have a lot of high-ceiling younger players coming off disappointing 2024 seasons.  The Reds went 82-80 in 2023 and went into last season looking to make a step forward into contention, but instead fell back to 77 wins because Elly De La Cruz and Tyler Stephenson were basically the only members of the team’s younger core that met expectations.  Whether due to injuries or just plain under-performance, players like Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand now head into the coming season with plenty left to prove about their building-block status.

Speculatively, working out a trade package involving Robert and at least one of these players could help offset some of the concerns the Reds might have about Robert’s long-term health.  Granted, Getz isn’t likely to sell low on Robert unless he absolutely has to, but taking on a player in a trade package that is also a bit of a question mark doesn’t seem like an unreasonable approach on the Reds’ part.  Just as Getz can argue that Robert’s underlying talent is the key factor in trade talks, Cincinnati might take that same argument in regards to any of its potential trade chips.

The outfield is known to be a target area for the Reds, and Robert would address that need in a big way.  With Robert stepping in as new regular center fielder, TJ Friedl could be shifted to left field, if Steer is subsequently moved back to the infield.  There are plenty of ways manager Terry Francona could juggle his lineup around Robert as one of the everyday cornerstones, and if another injury did arise, Friedl, Will Benson, or Stuart Fairchild would presumably still be on hand to step back into center field.

Part of Robert’s trade value is tied to his contract, which is a bargain if the outfielder is as healthy and productive as he was in his All-Star 2023 season.  Robert is set to earn $15MM in 2025, and the White Sox have a pair of $20MM club options (with $2MM buyouts) for both the 2026 and 2027 seasons.  While not huge money by superstar standards, the Reds’ trade efforts could be complicated if the team is indeed operating within very limited payroll parameters.

Ownership might be willing to allot more money to the Reds’ payroll in the special circumstance of a Robert trade coming to fruition, or another creative answer could be explored.  From Chicago’s perspective, Getz is open to ideas, noting that the White Sox have had some talks about three-team trades (presumably involving Robert or Crochet).  “If that’s the best way to acquire the talent for your organization, you do it,” Getz said.

White Sox Maintain High Asking Price On Luis Robert Jr.

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Much of the focus on the White Sox’ trade efforts this offseason will center around Garrett Crochet, and with good reason — he’s the top starting pitcher who’s readily available on the market. However, heading into the 2024 campaign, it was Luis Robert Jr. who was seen as Chicago’s potential top prize at the deadline. Another slate of injuries ruined the talented but fragile center fielder’s ’24 campaign and further added to his reputation as an injury-prone player. The Sox are still hoping to move Robert, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today, but one rival general manager tells Nightengale that Chicago’s asking price is simply unrealistic, given all of the health concerns surrounding Robert.

“You’ve got to hope he finally stays healthy and can be the player everyone envisioned all along,” that GM said. “But the White Sox are acting like he’s some big star center fielder and are asking for your top prospects.”

It’s understandable that the Sox would be reluctant to sell low on Robert. He’s among the most talented players in the sport when healthy — he just simply hasn’t been healthy for the majority of his career. Robert has had six IL placements dating back to the 2021 season, many of which sidelined him for significant periods of time. A hip flexor strain in 2021 sidelined him for more than three months. He missed more than two months this past season owing to the same injury. Robert has also been shelved for a wrist sprain, an MCL sprain, and a more ominous viral infection in 2022 that resulted in blurred vision, dizziness and lightheadedness.

That massive slate of injuries looked to have taken its toll on Robert this past season. He landed on the injured list just a week into the season and returned in June but never really found his footing. Robert hit five homers in his first 36 plate appearances upon activation — but he only collected one other hit in that time. He tallied 396 plate appearances post-injury in 2024 and slashed just .225/.281/.370 with a 32% strikeout rate.

Clearly, that’s not the type of production that’s going to generate interest in a player who’s owed a $15MM salary next season. However, from 2021-23, Robert slashed a combined .287/.331/.511 with 63 homers and 37 steals in just 1292 plate appearances. He played plus-plus defense in center field along the way; despite playing only 301 games in that three-year span, Robert tallied 21 Outs Above Average — good for 12th among all major league outfielders. That strong run was headlined by a 2023 campaign — Robert’s age-25 season — during which he hit .264/.315/.542 and popped 38 home runs in a career-high 595 trips to the plate. Robert made the All-Star team, won a Silver Slugger, and drew some downballot MVP votes.

That’s the type of upside any team would be hoping to land when acquiring Robert. Unfortunately, while his per-game and per-inning performance in 2021-23 was excellent, that 2023 season is the only one in which Robert has exceeded 425 plate appearances. He’s appeared in only 65.9% of possible games in his five-year run with the White Sox.

Robert’s 2024 season wasn’t without its silver linings. His average sprint speed, per Statcast, ticked up to 28.8 feet per second — the second-best mark of his career. He’d been down at a still-strong but not-elite 27.9 ft/sec the first time he dealt with a hip flexor strain. His speed bounced back more this time around. And while his defensive grades dipped, that was largely due to some errant throws. Statcast still rated Robert’s range quite strongly. He also sat in the 84th percentile of MLB hitters in bat speed and typically hit the ball hard (90.1 mph average exit velocity, 40.6% hard-hit rate) when he made contact. He just didn’t make contact enough (career-worst 32.8% strikeout rate).

Robert’s contract pays him $15MM next year. There are a pair of matching $20MM club options for the 2026 and 2027 seasons on the deal. Getting the 2021-23 version of Robert for the next three seasons at a combined $55MM would be a steal, even if he spent about one-third of that time on the injured list, as he did in ’21-’23. (Both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs agree Robert was worth about 10.5 WAR during that run, even with the missed time.)

The problem for interested teams, of course, is that there’s no guarantee he’ll get back to that level of play. Taking a one-year, $15MM flier is probably appealing to many outfield-needy clubs, particularly with the pair of club options looming. Taking on that salary and surrendering top-tier prospects is another story entirely. From the White Sox’ vantage point, trading Robert to simply clear $15MM in guaranteed money would be foolhardy. They barely have any money on the books, with an estimated payroll in the $75MM range, per RosterResource. That’s half their 2024 payroll. Selling low on Robert and watching him bounce back to stardom elsewhere would be agonizing for the Sox and their fans.

It all makes Robert a very difficult player to trade this winter. The Sox have no urgency to shed the relatively small amount that remains on his contract. Other clubs surely feel there’s little sense in trading top-tier prospects for an oft-injured player coming off a 100-game season that was the least-productive stint of his career.

The likeliest outcome would seem to be a midseason trade. If Robert bounces back, the Sox can put him back on the block and effectively market two-plus years of his services. If he continues to struggle, they could move him for a light return, knowing the eventual likelihood was that his option would be bought out anyhow. Perhaps a team could throw caution to the wind and make a surprisingly strong offer for him in the near future, but that seems unlikely. The Sox did move Dylan Cease in spring training when his Cactus League performance quieted some concerns about a pedestrian 2023 season, so it’s possible a big spring from Robert could garner some attention. In all likelihood, though, he seems ticketed to remain on the Sox to open the season, and clubs around the game will keep a close eye on his early performance. If he shows well in April, Chicago GM Chris Getz could follow in Miami counterpart Peter Bendix’s footsteps and make Robert available in late April/early May — as the Marlins did with Luis Arraez.

White Sox “Unlikely” To Move Luis Robert Jr. By Trade Deadline

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While the White Sox have been one of the primary sellers in the deadline market, one of their top trade candidates doesn’t appear to be going anywhere, as reporter Francys Romero (X link) hears from sources that Luis Robert Jr. is “unlikely” to be on the move at this point.  MLB.com’s Scott Merkin concurs, and so while an unexpectedly big trade offer might change things before tomorrow’s 5pm CT deadline, odds are Robert will still be in a White Sox uniform on July 31.

Robert missed about two months this season due to a hip flexor strain, and is hitting .201/.242/.440 with 12 homers and 13 steals over 220 plate appearances entering today’s action.  With just a 99 wRC+ to show for his production, Robert isn’t exactly putting on a show for potential suitors, so it isn’t surprising that the White Sox might want to hold off until the offseason to reignite any trade talks.  If Robert returns to his 2023 form over the season’s final two months, it will do a lot to re-establish his trade value and to help Chicago’s chances at finding a suitable return.

Signed to a six-year, $50MM contract before his MLB career even began, Robert is still something of an unproven quantity as he approaches his 27th birthday, as injuries have limited his full potential.  Playing in 145 games last season, Robert hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers and finished 12th in AL MVP voting, which provided evidence that Robert can be an elite player when healthy.  A more serious hip flexor issue in 2021 and then a variety of injuries in 2022 limited him to 166 games over those two seasons, though he still managed a .307/.344/.486 slash line and 25 home runs in 697 PA, basically delivering the equivalent of one impressive full season.

Beyond Robert’s production on the field, his contractual control adds to his value as a trade chip.  He is owed $15MM in 2025, and the White Sox then hold $20MM club options on his services for both 2026 and 2027.  This is quite a reasonable price for a player with a superstar ceiling, and thus the Sox could add for a huge trade package to further aid their rebuilding efforts.

Given the potential length of Robert’s deal, the White Sox could even still view him as a contributor to their next winning team, if they feel they’re starting to make headway on a revived roster.  Of course, that would require a lot of progress in pretty short order from a 27-81 team that is threatening to deliver one of baseball’s worst-ever seasons, so it might seem like a long shot if the Sox are able to get on track before Robert’s time with the club is over.

Mariners Still Active In Trade Market

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The Mariners’ acquisition of Randy Arozarena last night is perhaps the most notable swap of the season thus far, but Seattle isn’t content with that lone acquisition. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the M’s are still talking to other clubs, looking to add another bat and a high-leverage reliever. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times adds some context on the team’s search for bats, reporting that two of the top bats on the market — Oakland’s Brent Rooker and Chicago’s Luis Robert — may not be likely to land in Seattle. The A’s have been reluctant to trade with Seattle, per Jude, while an acquisition of Robert is considered “highly unlikely at this point.”

Both Rooker and Robert would add a controllable, high-end bat to what has been a stagnant Mariners offense. Rooker is arb-eligible for the first time this offseason and controlled three more years. Robert is signed through the 2025 season, and his contract contains a pair of $20MM club options.

The A’s haven’t always been reluctant to deal within the AL West, but the last time they completed a trade with the Mariners came back in 2017, when the two clubs swapped Emilio Pagan for Ryon Healy. In fact, the only trade they’ve made with a division rival in the past three years was this April’s acquisition of righty Brandon Bielak in a deal that sent cash back to the Astros. It’s always possible there’ll be a change in direction, but their once-frequent intra-division trades (e.g. Elvis Andrus, Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Jurickson Profar, Pagan, Healy) have dried up in recent years.

With regard to Robert, there’s no intra-division component to be considered, but traction on Robert hasn’t really picked up, it seems. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that the White Sox have set a high asking price and haven’t yet seen potential trade partners willing to meet it or even come particularly close.

The mere mention of Rooker and Robert aligns largely with the latest reporting from Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, who suggests that Seattle’s front office has been “aggressive” in trying to add multiple impact bats. Arozarena checks one box, but the Mariners’ lineup could use upgrades at multiple spots.

It’s even possible the M’s and Rays could line up on another deal; Kramer writes that the two teams discussed infielders Isaac Paredes and Yandy Diaz in the offseason. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that the Mariners are again a potential landing spot for Diaz, who is drawing trade interest and was reinstated from the restricted list within the past hour after a week-long absence to tend to an undisclosed family matter.

Like Arozarena, the 32-year-old Diaz got out to a slow start in 2024 but has heated up in recent months. Over his past 280 plate appearances, he’s slashing a robust .302/.354/.453 with seven homers, 16 doubles, a triple and just a 13.9% strikeout rate. He’d give the Mariners an upgrade over the recently designated Ty France and simultaneously accomplish the team’s ongoing goal of reducing their MLB-worst strikeout rate. He’s earning $8MM the second season of a three-year, $24MM contract extension and is owed $10MM in 2025 before the team must decide on a $12MM option for the 2026 season.

Paredes, 25, is arguably one of the most appealing possibilities on the entire trade market. He’s played third base primarily of late, but the versatile infielder can handle all four infield positions and has emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-order slugger. Dating back to Opening Day 2023, he’s slashed .250/.353/.469 with 47 homers in 241 games. He’s earning only $3.4MM this season in the first of four arbitration seasons (as a Super Two player). Paredes’ versatility, productive bat, remaining control and currently affordable price tag could make the prospect cost to acquire him prohibitive, but the Rays are generally open to listen on anyone — and teams have been at least inquiring on Paredes recently.

Dodgers To Reinstate Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow

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The Dodgers have been scrambling to fill their rotation lately but will get a couple of big reinforcements back in the coming days. Manager Dave Roberts tells reporters that right-hander Tyler Glasnow and left-hander Clayton Kershaw will each come off the injured list to start on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Kershaw is on the 60-day IL and will need a 40-man roster spot to be opened prior to taking the ball. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times was among those to relay the news on X.

It’s a pretty big moment for Kershaw, who is coming back from the most significant absence of his career. The southpaw went under the knife in November to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. Though surgeries for pitchers have become quite commonplace in today’s baseball landscape, this was actually the first one for the veteran.

Kershaw was a workhorse earlier in his career but has had some health issues in recent seasons. From 2010 to 2015, he logged at least 198 innings for six straight years but hasn’t hit that number since. Recent years have seen him miss time here and there, often due to back issues, but the shoulder was the big concern in 2023. He somehow managed to toss 131 2/3 innings with a 2.55 earned run average despite his fastball velocity declining throughout the season but then was torched in his lone playoff start, only recording one out against the Diamondbacks while being charged with six earned runs.

The shoulder issue eventually require the aforementioned surgery in November and then he re-signed with the Dodgers in February. The deal is a two-year pact with the second season being a player option. Kershaw has a base salary of just $5MM in both years of the deal but with the ability to earn far more if he’s healthy. He gets an extra $1MM for getting to six starts, $1.5MM each for his seventh, eighth and ninth starts and then $2MM after his tenth. The Dodgers can’t get around this by using an opener, as a relief outing wherein Kershaw records at least nine outs also counts. At this point in the calendar, it’s still possible for Kershaw to unlock all of those bonuses and there are similar escalators for his 2025 option.

He began a rehab assignment by pitching three innings at the Single-A level on June 19. He was then shut down due to some shoulder soreness but Roberts downplayed the significance and Kershaw restarted his rehab assignment again more recently. He tossed three innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City last Saturday and then four innings on Friday, getting up to 67 pitches in the most recent outing. He’s now set to resume a big league career that already includes 2,712 2/3 innings with a 2.48 ERA.

Glasnow’s absence was far more mild, as he landed on the IL prior to the break due to some low back tightness, but the dual returns are significant for the Dodgers as they have had plenty of rotation challenges. Dustin May and Emmet Sheehan are each done for the year, with Tony Gonsolin likely to be in that camp as well. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a rotator cuff strain that landed him on the 60-day IL, meaning he can’t return before mid-August. Bobby Miller struggled enough to get optioned down to the minors while Walker Buehler was ineffective before landing on the IL with a hip issue.

Amid all of those issues, the Dodgers have been using a rotation of veteran James Paxton, rookies Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski and Landon Knack, as well as occasional bullpen games. Getting Glasnow and Kershaw into that mix obviously helps, and the club will be promoting prospect River Ryan soon as well.

Though that group is about to be much stronger than it was heading into the All-Star break, the Dodgers are still expected to pursue rotation upgrades prior to the July 30 deadline. They have been connected to Garrett Crochet of the White Sox for weeks now and Bob Nightengale of USA Today mentions the fit again this morning, also adding that the club has interest in Tarik Skubal of the Tigers.

Though the Dodgers’ interest in Crochet has been known for a while, Nightengale adds that the Dodgers have discussed a blockbuster deal that would see them also acquire outfielder Luis Robert Jr. and maybe even reliever Michael Kopech as well. That’s not necessarily a big surprise, as teams usually discuss all kinds of various trade scenarios, with many of them not coming close to fruition.

But that does align with recent comments from president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who suggested the Dodgers would be more focused on impact additions as opposed to marginal upgrades. The club has some holes but is understandably shooting for the stars at this point. They have made the playoffs in 11 straight years now and spent wildly in the offseason, adding Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani and others. Making the postseason for a 12th straight year won’t really count as an accomplishment for the club or its fans, so aiming high at the deadline and trying for a World Series seems to be the play.

Crochet would obviously fit the bill since he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league this year with a 3.02 ERA and 35.2% strikeout rate through 20 starts. There are some concerns about his workload since he’s already thrown more innings this year than in his entire professional career prior to this campaign, but he should be able to provide an impact even if moved to some kind of relief role down the stretch.

Robert also has some durability concerns as he’s only tallied 100 games in a season once, but that one occurrence was quite impressive. He got into 145 contests for the Sox last year and hit 38 home runs, stole 20 bases and provided quality defense in center field. Injuries have been a problem before and have cropped up again this year, as he missed two months due to a right hip flexor strain. But he’s been great in his limited time, with 11 homers and 11 steals in just 45 games. His 32.6% strikeout rate is a career high but his 10.2% walk rate is almost twice his career pace.

He could fit into a Dodger outfield that has seen Mookie Betts move to the infield and then head to the injured list. Teoscar Hernández is having a good year but it’s flimsy apart from that. Andy Pages and Miguel Vargas are doing well overall but most of their damage has come against lefties. Ideally, they would be platooned with Jason Heyward, but Heyward is also on the IL. James Outman is hitting just .153/.250/.258 on the year and was optioned to the minors for a while, only getting recalled when Heyward went on the shelf. Utility players Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernández and Cavan Biggio have also struggled.

In addition to their talents, both players would be incredibly attractive due to their financial situations. Crochet is in his first arbitration season but his injury absences have limited him to a salary of $800K this year. He has two arb seasons left after this one and will be in line for a decent raises, but from a very modest base. Robert is making $12.5MM this year, far more than Crochet but still a bargain for a player of his talents. He’ll then make $15MM next year with a pair of $20MM club options after that.

Each player has significant trade value in a vacuum but it would take a massive blockbuster haul for the Dodgers to get both. Their farm system is considered strong but whether a deal can come together or not will depend on what kind of price the Sox are asking for and what other teams are offering. But at 27-73 and with a farm system that isn’t especially well regarded, it makes sense the Sox are considering trading almost anyone and it seems they are doing just that.

Kopech can’t match either Crochet or Robert in terms of huge appeal, but he would have some value in his own right. After some inconsistent results as a starter, the Sox have been using him as their closer this year with some interesting but mixed results. His 5.05 ERA isn’t going to wow anyone and his 12.7% walk rate is concerning, but he has punched out 30.9% of batters faced. He’s only making $3MM this year and can be retained via arbitration for another season after this.

As for Skubal, it’s understandable why the Dodgers or any other club would be interested. He is a Cy Young candidate this year with a 2.41 ERA, 30.8% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 47.4% ground ball rate. He’s making a modest $2.65MM and has two seasons of club control beyond this one.

But that also makes him plenty appealing to the Tigers and it’s fair to wonder how available he is. The club once seemed buried in the standings but have been hot lately, winning 11 of their last 14 and climbing to within five games of a playoff spot. Getting Skubal away from Detroit was probably going to take a haul even when they were in seller position but it’s probably become more difficult in recent weeks.

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