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Luis Robert

Mets Among Teams To Show Recent Interest In Luis Robert Jr.

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10:15am: Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that there is “nothing hot” between the Mets and White Sox regarding Robert as things stand, though he goes to acknowledge that the Mets have “checked in” on him previously and that center field could be an area the club has interest in upgrading.

9:15am: White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. has long appeared to be the club’s most obvious trade chip for the 2025 season, and a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last weekend suggested that Chicago may be motivated to move Robert before the end of May if he were to continue playing well throughout the month. Robert has gone just 4-for-19 at the plate with one walk and five strikeouts since that piece was published, but today Nightengale reports that teams have begun to show interest in Robert with the Mets among the clubs to have checked in.

The 27-year-old could certainly make plenty of sense in Queens. Robert’s offense has left much to be desired over the past two years, as he’s slashed just .215/.282/366 with a lackluster 82 wRC+ across 137 games since the start of the 2024 season. That’s essentially a full season’s worth of games where Robert has struck out at a 32.6% clip and hit just 19 homers, though he has walked at a solid 8.3% clip and stolen 38 bases in that time while serving as a capable defensive option in center field.

While Robert’s recent production isn’t exactly exciting, it’s impossible to deny his talent. Staying healthy has always been a question for Robert, but he offered star-level production when on the field from 2021 to 2023 with a .287/.331/.511 (129 wRC+) slash line and 10.6 fWAR in just 311 games. That’s a four- to five-win player over a full season, and while his recent downturn in production makes expected a five-win campaign like his 2023 season somewhat unrealistic, it’s worth noting that Robert’s been hurt badly this year by a .244 BABIP that falls well below the career norm for a player who’s never posted a figure below .300 before in a season. A look at Robert’s solid .326 xwOBA would suggest that his underlying performance this year is more or less in line with the production he put forward in 2022, when he slashed .284/.319/.426 with a wRC+ of 111 in 98 games.

That sort of production would be extremely valuable for a Mets club that already lost its starting center fielder in Jose Siri for the first half of the season due to a fractured tibia. That’s left Tyrone Taylor to handle center field duties in Queens, and while he’s been serviceable with a .249/.295/317 (90 wRC+) slash line, he’s not exactly been an impact player for the Mets and lacks the superstar upside Robert offers. Center field is one of very few holes in New York’s lineup; the club is only ranked below average by both fWAR and wRC+ at three positions so far this year: second base, left field, and center field. Brandon Nimmo is entrenched in left and has wound up above-average at the plate in each of the last eight seasons, while second base is covered by a combination of Luisangel Acuna, Brett Baty, and Jeff McNeil. None of those names have firmly grabbed hold of the everyday job at the keystone to this point, but that depth of options makes an external addition seem unlikely.

That leaves center as the obvious place for an upgrade, and the pickings at the position figure to be slim this summer outside of Robert. Perhaps Cedric Mullins could be available if the Orioles can’t dig themselves out of their current hole in the standings. The Twins could deal either Willi Castro or former Met Harrison Bader if the club’s current seven-game winning streak proves to be simply a flash in the pan. Robert stands out from that pack, however, as an option controlled beyond the 2025 season (via a pair of $20MM club options for 2026 and ’27) and by offering higher upside than any of them.

Of course, any deal would be contingent on the sides being able to agree on an asking price. Nightengale writes that the White Sox are “eyeing” right-hander Blade Tidwell as part of the of a possible return package, though it’s unclear if the Mets would have any interesting in parting ways with the 23-year-old. Tidwell made his big league debut last week, and while it didn’t go well (six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings), he remains a valuable part of the starting pitching depth chart for a Mets club that has dealt with a number of early-season pitching injuries already. It would be understandable if the Mets were hesitant to include a big league ready arm like Tidwell in the return for Robert, especially if the deal were to happen early in the season before the trade market heats up in earnest. Speculatively speaking, the club could be more open to dealing a player like Tidwell later in the year, when they may have either received reinforcements from the injured list or swung separate trades with other clubs to acquire more starting pitching.

Poll: When Should The White Sox Trade Luis Robert Jr.?

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The White Sox entered the 2025 season having already moved one of their two most notable trade chips when Garrett Crochet was shipped to Boston in exchange for a four-prospect package led by catcher Kyle Teel. Center fielder Luis Robert Jr. is their other asset of note, and he remains in the organization despite talking to multiple clubs about a trade. The Dodgers, Reds, and Giants are all known to have engaged with Chicago about Robert’s services, with L.A. outfielder James Outman and Cincinnati infield prospect Edwin Arroyo among the names known to have been discussed as part of a return package.

Evidently, the White Sox didn’t receive an offer they found compelling enough to move Robert for, seeing as he still remains with the South Siders. Chicago bet on Robert to have a strong enough first half to increase his value ahead of the trade deadline, but the first few weeks of the season made that decision look like a potential mistake. On April 16, Robert was slashing a brutal .143/.234/.214, striking out at a 27.3% clip and hitting for virtually no power. That slow start prompted MLBTR’s Anthony Franco to take a look at Robert in a piece for front office subscribers, in which he noted that Robert was actually walking more often than ever before in his career but that his swing-and-miss profile still needed to be carried by significantly more power than he had shown to that point in the season.

Robert has answered that call. He clobbered a home run in Boston just three days later, and since then he’s hit an impressive .241/.371/.483 with four homers, two doubles, and an even better 17.1% walk rate. The 27-year-old’s overall slash line remains below average (86 wRC+) on the year, but a season-long 13.2% barrel rate, 14.3% walk rate, and .331 xwOBA all demonstrate that things are clearly moving in the right direction for the White Sox and their mercurial star. That’s not to say everything is going well, however; Robert’s strikeout rate has crept back up above 30% (31.4%), his in-zone contact rate is down relative to the last two years, and he’s making the most soft contact (27.0%) of his career.

The question for the White Sox now becomes how quickly they should look to get a deal done. If Robert’s recent stretch of success proves to be sustainable, it would make plenty of sense for the club to wait until closer to the trade deadline to move him. At that point, his overall season numbers would likely be back above average and teams may be willing to give up more for him. On the other hand, if the organization does not view Robert’s recent power surge and improved patience at the plate as particularly sustainable or they’re concerned about his recent uptick in strikeouts, perhaps there’s an argument to deal him now while he’s performing at an impactful level. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that if Robert’s recent hot streak continues, the club hopes to move him by Memorial Day.

Moving a piece with as much star power as Robert before the calendar even flips to June would be a bold move, but certainly not an unheard of one. After all, it was just last year that the Marlins moved Luis Arraez to the Padres in early May. Few executives in the game are as aggressive as San Diego’s A.J. Preller, but that doesn’t mean a deal is impossible. Perhaps the Giants are intrigued enough by their hot start to be more willing to pay for Robert than they were in the offseason, or recent injuries suffered by Tommy Edman and Teoscar Hernandez convince the Dodgers to swing a deal. The Reds have fallen below .500 after briefly fighting their way into a playoff spot last week in large part because of lackluster production from their outfield, which has an 88 wRC+ tied with Cleveland for the seventh-worst figure in the majors.

All three of those teams with past known interest in Robert have reasons to be more aggressive on him now than they were previously, and that ignores other teams that could have interest. The Rangers recently lost center fielder Leody Taveras on waivers and are looking for ways to snap the team out of an offensive funk, though they’d probably balk at taking on the remaining portion of his $15MM salary. The Mets have found plenty of early season success but can surely do better than Tyrone Taylor as an everyday center fielder. Atlanta and Kansas City are both trying to compete this year but have endured the two least-productive outfield mixes in the sport to this point in the year. If even one of those teams is willing to meet Chicago’s asking price, it’s fair to argue that risking injury or another cold streak isn’t worth the potential reward of a July bidding war. After all, the White Sox saw up close what can happen if you wait too long to trade a player last year, when they got only a token return for Eloy Jimenez, who eventually had his club option declined by the Orioles last winter and ended up in the Rays organization on a minor league deal.

How do MLBTR readers think the White Sox should proceed with Robert? Should they try and make a deal as soon as possible, or wait in hopes that an extended hot streak raises his value? Have your say in the poll below:

When should the White Sox trade Luis Robert Jr.?
The White Sox should trade Robert now if someone meets their asking price, but not be afraid to wait until the deadline if offers disappoint. 45.70% (1,640 votes)
The White Sox should begin marketing Robert aggressively in hopes of trading him as soon as possible. 30.90% (1,109 votes)
The White Sox should hold onto Robert until the deadline and only move him now if a team is willing to overpay. 23.40% (840 votes)
Total Votes: 3,589

Looking Ahead To Club Options: AL Central

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the AL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West, NL Central

Chicago White Sox

Pérez signed a $5MM free agent deal to serve as the veteran presence in a very young White Sox rotation. Chicago hoped he’d pitch well enough in the first half to net a lottery ticket prospect at the deadline. Pérez was reasonably effective through his first three starts, but he came out of his fourth outing with forearm discomfort. A flexor strain diagnosis immediately sent him to the 60-day injured list. He’s expected to avoid surgery but will miss almost the entire season. A deadline trade is off the table, and he’ll be bought out at season’s end.

As recently as a few months ago, Robert’s $20MM club option looked like excellent value, as did the matching option for 2026. He was a down-ballot MVP performer in 2023, when he hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers while playing plus center field defense. The ’24 campaign was a struggle. Robert missed nearly two months early in the season with a hip flexor strain and was unproductive when healthy. He hit .224/.278/.379 with 14 homers in 100 games. Chicago held him into this year rather than sell low in an offseason trade.

That put a lot of pressure on Robert to hit early in the year. An excellent few months could make him one of the top position players available at the deadline. A terrible start might tank what remained of his trade value. The early returns are disastrous: .138/.255/.238 with 30 strikeouts in 96 plate appearances. There’s still time for a turnaround, but Robert may be following in the footsteps of Tim Anderson and Eloy Jiménez — players whose once team-friendly extensions soured to the point that they were traded for meager returns and/or bought out.

Cleveland Guardians

Means underwent UCL surgery last June. That was his second such procedure within the past three years. He’d undergone Tommy John surgery in 2022 and had only just returned before his elbow gave out again. The Guardians took a $1MM flier in free agency. The deal includes a $6MM team option for next season. Means is hoping to return to the mound in August or September. His late-season form will determine whether Cleveland wants to keep him around next year.

If the Guardians exercise the option, Means could unlock up to $2.5MM in performance bonuses. He’d earn $75K apiece at 20, 30, 40 and 50 innings pitched next year. That climbs to $100K each for 60, 70, 80 and 90 frames; $125K at 100, 110, 120 and 130 innings; and $150K apiece for 140 and 150 frames.

Sewald had a pair of above-average seasons as Seattle’s closer between 2022-23. His production started to trend down after a ’23 deadline deal that sent him to Arizona. Sewald remained generally productive through the Snakes’ surprising World Series run that year. Last season was his worst since his 2021 breakout. He allowed a 4.31 ERA with declining velocity through 39 2/3 innings. The Guardians surprisingly guaranteed him $7MM to deepen an already excellent bullpen. The veteran righty has punched out 13 hitters through 10 1/3 frames, but he has already surrendered three homers while averaging just 90.2 MPH on his fastball.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit added Brebbia on a $2.75MM contract early in Spring Training. It was a roll of the dice on the veteran righty’s intriguing swing-and-miss rates. Brebbia had allowed nearly six earned runs per nine innings last season (mostly with the White Sox), but he punched out nearly 28% of opposing hitters. Things have reversed early in his Detroit tenure. Brebbia has only allowed two runs (one earned) over his first nine innings. His 8.8% swinging strike rate is well below average, though, and he’s given out eight free passes — five walks and three hit batters.

Brebbia is working in low-leverage situations that suggest he’s towards the bottom of the bullpen depth chart. He’ll need to turn around his underlying numbers to pitch his way into more meaningful spots and, eventually, to convince the front office to exercise the option.

Brebbia could push the option price by another $4MM based on his performance this year. It’d climb by $500K at 65 appearances, $1MM apiece at 45 and 50 games finished, and by $2MM for 55 games finished. The maximum escalator value is capped at $4MM, so the appearance threshold would essentially be nullified if Brebbia finishes 55 games and pushes the option value to $8MM based on that criteria alone. He has finished six of eight appearances so far.

Urquidy’s situation is similar to that of Means. The former Astros righty required Tommy John surgery last June. Houston waived him at the end of the season. He reunited with A.J. Hinch in Detroit on a $1MM contract. Urquidy won’t be an option until the final few weeks of the season in a best case scenario. Detroit can gauge his progress to determine whether they want to retain him at a $4MM base value. Urquidy could tack on another $3MM if the Tigers exercise the option: $150K each at four and seven starts next year; $300K apiece for 10, 13, 16 and 19 starts; and $500K each at 22, 25 and 28 starts.

Kansas City Royals

  • Michael Lorenzen, RHP ($12MM mutual option, $1.5M buyout if team declines its end)

Kansas City brought Lorenzen back on a $7MM free agent deal. He’s playing on a $5.5MM salary and would collect a $1.5MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option assuming the Royals decline their end. He grabbed a season-opening rotation spot with both Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright on the shelf. Lorenzen has had a customary start to the season. He carried a 4.57 ERA with a below-average 17.7% strikeout rate into this evening’s appearance against the Rockies. He’s through five scoreless innings against Colorado at the time of this writing.

Perez is making $22MM in the final season of the four-year extension that he signed in March 2021. At the time, it was the largest contract in organizational history. (Bobby Witt Jr. has since shattered that record.) Perez is a franchise stalwart, of course, but it was still surprising to see the Royals guarantee him $82MM for his age 32-35 seasons — especially given the heavy workloads he’d taken throughout his career.

The nine-time All-Star has rewarded the team’s faith. He led the majors with 48 homers and 121 RBI in 2021, though he was already under contract for that season anyhow. He combined for a .261/.307/.447 slash over the first three seasons of the extension. Perez eclipsed 20 home runs in each, and he won the AL Silver Slugger Award behind the dish with a .271/.330/.456 showing during last year’s playoff season.

Perez has started this season more slowly. He entered today’s doubleheader with a .185/.235/.293 line, though he has picked up four doubles over two games against Colorado pitching. If this continues all season, the Royals could face a tough decision, but the safer bet right now is that Kansas City will exercise the option. It’s tough to imagine Perez playing anywhere else.

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota added Bader on a $6.25MM contract amidst a quiet offseason. They’ve preferred to have a capable right-handed hitting fourth outfielder who can reduce Byron Buxton’s workload in center field while complementing their lefty-hitting corner bats. Bader has started 18 of the team’s first 25 games. He’s hitting .230/.319/.393 with a trio of home runs through 69 plate appearances. It’s an early improvement over last year’s .236/.284/.373 showing, but it’s unlikely the Twins would exercise their end of a $10MM option.

The bigger factor might be Bader’s semi-regular playing time. He could push the buyout price as high as $3MM based on this season’s plate appearance total. It has a $1.5MM base value and would climb by $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then by $450K at 475 and 500.

Note: Justin Topa’s arbitration contract contains a $2MM club option or a $225K buyout for next season. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the team declines the option, as he will not have reached six years of service time.

Luis Robert’s Slow Start

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April tends to be relatively quiet on the transaction front. The early part of the month saw a handful of extensions as talks that had begun in Spring Training carried into the regular season. There probably won't be much more significant hot stove activity for the next couple months. That's largely because all but three teams -- the White Sox, Marlins and Rockies -- went into the season with some measure of hope about competing. The trio of clearly noncompetitive clubs had already moved most of their realistic trade candidates who'd bring back prospect talent.

Luis Robert Jr. is an exception. The White Sox held onto their former All-Star center fielder over the offseason. Robert was coming off the worst season of his career. He lost nearly two months early in the season with a hip flexor strain and was unproductive when healthy. He hit .224/.278/.379 with 14 homers in 100 games. Robert looked nothing like the player who'd finished 12th in AL MVP balloting one year earlier.

It made for a difficult evaluation. Robert has shown star upside -- not only in the aforementioned 2023 campaign but in an injury-shortened '21 season when he hit .338/.378/.567 over 68 games. Last year's White Sox were en route to the worst season in the modern era. Maybe Robert's .216/.253/.302 showing in the second half reflected some amount of mental fatigue. At 27 years old, he should remain in his prime.

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Dodgers, White Sox Previously Discussed Luis Robert Jr. Trade

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The Dodgers and White Sox previously engaged in trade talks that would’ve sent center fielder Luis Robert Jr. to Los Angeles in exchange for outfielder James Outman and an unnamed “front-line prospect,” according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Nightengale notably adds that talks between the sides have been tabled at present, however, and it’s unclear whether these discussions occurred recently or at some point during this past offseason.

That the Dodgers would have interest in Robert is fairly unsurprising. The center fielder was among the most obvious trade candidates of the offseason with Chicago coming off the worst season in MLB history. Robert himself was part of that brutal campaign, as he was limited to just 100 games by injuries and did not perform up to expectations even when healthy with a .224/.278/.379 slash line (84 wRC+). While he stole 23 bases and slugged 14 homers during that time, he was held back by a 33.2% strikeout rate, the highest of his career.

That’s not much of a platform season to market to potential suitors. Between that and the $17MM guaranteed to Robert this season between his $15MM salary and the $2MM buyout of a $20MM team option for 2026, it’s hardly a surprise that the White Sox weren’t able to find the right value for their franchise center fielder. Despite his weak 2024 campaign, however, he did garner interest from clubs like the Reds and Giants this winter. It’s not hard to see why, given that Robert is not too far removed from a 2023 campaign that saw him make his first career All-Star team, finish 12th in AL MVP voting, and win the Silver Slugger award in center field. In 145 games that year, he posted a 128 wRC+, slugged 38 homers, swiped 20 bags, and posted a 5-win campaign (4.9 fWAR, 5.3 bWAR).

That tantalizing upside appears to have intrigued the Dodgers as well. It was reported back in December that Robert was among a number of possible alternatives to Teoscar Hernandez that L.A. was weighing a pursuit of if they were unable to bring the slugger back into the fold via free agency, though that thought experiment ultimately went nowhere when Hernandez re-signed with the club shortly thereafter. Even after bringing Hernandez into the fold, however, adding Robert could make at least some sense for the Dodgers. With Robert installed in center field, L.A. would be much less reliant on Miguel Rojas (and, eventually, Hyeseong Kim) at second base and could instead install switch-hitter Tommy Edman at the position. A stronger defender on the infield like Edman could help Mookie Betts improve as he works on learning shortstop, or could even provide the Dodgers with the ability to begin using Edman at short and Betts at the keystone if the experiment of playing Betts at the most valuable defensive position on the diamond does not work out.

Between the additional flexibility Robert would provide the Dodgers in how they deploy Edman and his previous heights as a star player, it’s not hard to see why the club would have some level of interest in him. The discussions reported by Nightengale suggest that Outman would be a key part of the return, which could make plenty of sense for both sides. Outman, 28 next month, finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2023 with an excellent debut season where he hit .248/.353/.437 (118 wRC+) as Los Angeles’s regular center fielder. Unfortunately, his sophomore season did not go nearly as well as he struck out in 35.3% of his plate appearances, posted a wRC+ of just 54, and was below replacement level in 53 games.

In some regards, Outman is a somewhat similar player to Robert, albeit with a far lower ceiling. Outman currently isn’t slated to hit free agency until after the 2030 season, which could also be attractive to the rebuilding White Sox. He evidently wouldn’t have been the only piece Chicago received had the trade been consummated, though it’s unclear whether the “front-line” prospect involved would be a top-100 type talent like southpaw Jackson Ferris or shortstop Alex Freeland or perhaps a less flashy name like righty Nick Frasso or outfielder Kendall George. What the hypothetical trade would have ended up looking like, it’s clear the sides aren’t currently discussing a deal at this point. Perhaps they could circle back and reignite talks closer to the trade deadline, when Robert is sure to be on the market ahead of the final guaranteed year of his contract.

White Sox Discussed Luis Robert With Reds, Giants; Trade Before Spring Training Seen As Unlikely

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The second White Sox rebuild of the past decade has stripped the roster of nearly all its notable veterans, but center fielder Luis Robert Jr. stands as a holdover from the team’s brief two-year run as a playoff club and a still-prominent trade candidate. Had Robert enjoyed a healthy 2024 campaign he’d likely already be gone, because at his best (e.g. 2023), he’s proven to be a five-tool, MVP-caliber talent. Staying on the field, however, has been problematic.

Robert played only 100 games in 2024 and didn’t seem to be at full strength for much of that time. His .224/.278/.379 slash was the worst production of his career. That’s made it tough for the White Sox to find a middle ground in trade conversations. Selling low on such a talented player when he’s signed through 2027 — $15MM in 2025, plus a pair of $20MM club options for 2026-27 — would be a major missed opportunity if Robert is able to bounce back with a healthy season.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports this morning that those hurdles impacted trade talks with both the Giants earlier in the offseason and, much more recently, with the Reds. Cincinnati and Chicago were discussing Robert as recently as last week and this past weekend, per Rosenthal, with infield prospect Edwin Arroyo among the names who could potentially go back to the Sox. Beyond the difficulty of agreeing on which prospects would be involved, the two parties didn’t see eye to eye on how much money the White Sox should include to cover some of the $17MM still guaranteed to Robert. (There’s also a $2MM buyout on his 2026 club option.) At this point, the Sox aren’t likely to trade Robert prior to spring training, per the report.

Until recently, it seemed as though the Reds had exhausted the majority — if not the entirety — of their 2025 payroll budget. A late agreement with Main Street Sports/FanDuel Sports Network for their 2025 television broadcasts provided an unexpected bump to president of baseball Nick Krall’s budget for the upcoming season, however. That produced renewed talks with reliever Carlos Estevez — who ultimately agreed to sign with the Royals instead — and likely facilitated the signing of Austin Hays (one year, $5MM) and yesterday’s acquisition of Taylor Rogers, whom the Reds will pay $6MM next year. (The Giants are covering the other $6MM of his 2025 salary.)

That’s $11MM in new payroll added by the Reds (a net $9.5MM over two league-minimum players) since that late TV deal was brokered. Robert alone is guaranteed more than that; even if the White Sox had been willing to kick in $6MM to bring the price down to the same $11MM the Reds wound up spending this past week, that would’ve only addressed one spot on the roster. Cincinnati would still be looking for more bullpen help and presumably doing so with at a much lower rate than the $6MM they’ll end up paying to Rogers.

While Arroyo is just one of the names the two parties discussed, it’s worth noting that like Robert, he’s a volatile player who’s difficult to evaluate at present. The 21-year-old middle infielder was a second-round pick out of Puerto Rico by the Mariners back in 2021 and was one of the key prospects shipped to the Reds in 2022’s Luis Castillo blockbuster. He ranked among the sport’s top-100 prospects in each of the past two offseasons but suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder last spring. That injury required surgery and wiped out his entire 2024 campaign.

Arroyo recovered in time to play in last year’s Arizona Fall League but in 18 games slashed just .253/.309/.333. That’s not a big enough sample to make a meaningful evaluation, of course, but it’s nonetheless a far cry from the 2022 production that helped catapult him onto the national prospect radar; that season saw Arroyo hit a combined .293/.366/.480 as an 18-year-old primarily facing much older and more experienced competition in A-ball.

A trade involving Robert could yet come together, but the challenges encountered by both the Giants and the Reds in their efforts to pry him from Chicago will persist. The Sox don’t want to take a middling return for a player who could command a genuine prospect haul if healthy. Any potential trade partner will be reluctant to trade its very best talent in exchange for a player who missed two months with a hip injury and was 16% worse than an average hitter in 2024 — even if he popped 38 homers as recently as 2023. The money owed to Robert is a bargain if he’s healthy, but that’s a major if. Plus, many teams have spent the vast majority of their offseason budget by this point on the calendar.

Back in late November, one rival general manager who’d spoken to the Sox about Robert rather plainly laid out the difficulty in working out a trade, telling USA Today’s Bob Nightengale at the time: “You’ve got to hope he finally stays healthy and can be the player everyone envisioned all along, but the White Sox are acting like he’s some big star center fielder and are asking for your top prospects.”

The Sox weren’t in an entirely dissimilar situation with Dylan Cease a year ago at this time. Cease, who had two seasons of club control remaining then, had finished runner-up in 2022 American League Cy Young voting before a pedestrian 2023 campaign in which he posted a 4.58 ERA with a one-mile drop in average fastball velocity and a corresponding dip in strikeout rate. He came back with a vengeance in spring training with stuff that looked dominant enough to generate a second act on his trade market. The Padres wound up acquiring him on March 13.

It’s possible a similar situation could play out with Robert. If he looks healthy and dynamic early in Cactus League play, perhaps there’ll be some renewed interest and diminished trepidation from interested teams wary about the explosive outfielder’s health.

If not in spring training, even a few weeks of strong play early in the 2025 campaign could pique the interest of other teams. That could create a situation similar to the one that saw the Marlins trade Luis Arraez (also to the Padres) early last May. Miami’s catastrophic start to the season effectively eliminated them from playoff contention just weeks into the 2024 season. The ChiSox already know full well they won’t contend in 2025. If Robert gets out to a torrid start and looks like the 2023 version of himself, putting him on the market in late April or early May would reduce the risk of an injury occurring in the months leading up to the trade deadline while also giving a trade partner an extra few months of production.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco pointed out last night when discussing the Guardians’ challenges in acquiring a center fielder, there simply haven’t been many — or really, any — impact options on the trade or free agent markets at the position over the past couple years. That applies not only to the Guards but also to the Giants, Reds, Phillies and other clubs that have sought center field upgrades recently. Clubs like the Red Sox, Mariners, Twins, Tigers, Royals, Pirates and Astros have also coveted right-handed bats and/or outfielders. Any could have interest in a revitalized Robert.

For now, the Sox’ focus will be on getting and keeping Robert as healthy as possible. If a strong spring or April showing rekindles his trade market, the past interest from both San Francisco and Cincinnati will be worth bearing in mind as the South Siders field new offers.

White Sox Notes: Free Agency, Robert, Montgomery

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White Sox general manager Chris Getz spoke with reporters on Thursday in advance of this weekend’s SoxFest. The second-year baseball operations leader indicated the team was unlikely to make any significant moves for the remainder of the offseason.

“For the most part, we feel like we’ve got our roster. Yeah, it’s just a matter of getting to Spring Training and prepping for Opening Day,” Getz said (link via MLB.com’s Scott Merkin). While he left open the possibility for “an addition here and there,” it doesn’t seem the Sox expect to do much else before the season gets underway.

That’s to be expected. The White Sox are coming off the worst season in modern baseball history. They certainly weren’t going to be major players in free agency. They’ve somewhat surprisingly signed five MLB free agent deals this winter, though none goes beyond this year. Martín Pérez ($5MM), Josh Rojas ($3.5MM), Mike Tauchman ($2MM), Austin Slater ($1.8MM) and Bryse Wilson ($1.1MM) are guaranteed a combined $13.4MM. They’ve added backup catcher Matt Thaiss and lefty reliever Cam Booser via minor trades.

While the Sox surely hope they’ll be able to flip some of their free agent acquisitions at the deadline, no one from that group is going to net more than a marginal return even if they play well in the first half. Chicago’s biggest decisions were tabbing Will Venable as manager and sending Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox for a four-player prospect return headlined by Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery. Crochet was easily the Sox’s top remaining trade chip.

That title now falls to Luis Robert Jr. The star center fielder is coming off the worst season of his career. Robert hit .224/.278/.379 through 425 plate appearances. Few players had a sharper drop-off relative to their 2023 production. Robert finished 12th in AL MVP balloting two years ago. He played elite defense and hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers and 20 stolen bases.

Robert is the only player on the Sox roster who has the ceiling to net them a franchise-changing trade return. That very likely wouldn’t be on the table this winter, though, so it’s logical for Chicago to hold him until the deadline. While Getz didn’t firmly shut the door on trading Robert before Opening Day, he didn’t sound eager to deal the 27-year-old.

“We’re open minded, we’re not looking to move anyone,” the GM said (link via Andrew Seligman of The Associated Press). “With that being said, there are other teams that are working through the free agent process perhaps and there could be some opportunities to have dialogue. We do feel like the majority of our moves have been made. But with that being said, we’re not quite there yet and I look forward to getting this group together out in Arizona.”

Robert will be the Sox’s most important player in the season’s first few months. He’s playing on a $15MM salary in the final guaranteed season of his pre-debut contract extension. He’s guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on $20MM club options covering the 2026-27 campaigns. If Robert finds anything near his ’23 form, Chicago would market two and a half seasons of club control over a star outfielder. If he plays like he did last season, they’d be looking at middling returns on a player who might get bought out at the end of the season. The Sox have already seen the latter situation play out with Tim Anderson and Eloy Jiménez, each of whom struggled enough to get bought out of what initially seemed to be very team-friendly contracts.

In either case, it’s hard to envision Robert remaining on the White Sox into the 2026 season. By that point, Colson Montgomery could be the new face of the franchise. The lefty-hitting shortstop was one of the sport’s top 15 prospects at this time last year. Montgomery underperformed in his first crack at Triple-A. He hit .214/.329/.381 while striking out at a 28.6% clip during his age-22 season. That has dinged his prospect value to some extent, though he still ranks among Baseball America’s Top 50 minor league talents.

The White Sox added Montgomery to their 40-man roster in November. That was a formality to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. They’d be justified in starting him back in Triple-A, but Getz left the door open for the former first-round pick to take the shortstop job out of camp. “He’s going to get a lot of opportunity come Spring Training,” Getz said (via Merkin). “We expect to see Colson Montgomery playing shortstop for the White Sox this year at some point. … He’s going to get a shot to make the club. Now, we’ve got other players on the roster that are going to compete for shortstop opportunities.”

Brooks Baldwin, who started nine games at shortstop last year, is the only returning player who logged any time at that position. Rojas has been their only major league infield acquisition this winter. He had a bit of run at shortstop early in his career with Arizona but hasn’t played there in four years. Chase Meidroth, whom the White Sox acquired in the Crochet deal, is coming off a .293/.437/.400 showing with Boston’s Triple-A club. His bat seems big league ready, but most scouting reports suggest he’s a better defensive fit at second or third base who can play shortstop on occasion. Meidroth is not yet on the 40-man roster, but it stands to reason that Chicago will give him an MLB look at some point this year.

Dodgers Exploring Alternatives To Teoscar Hernandez

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Negotiations between the Dodgers and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez remain at an impasse, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. While L.A. and Hernandez have long expressed mutual interest in a reunion following a successful 2024 campaign that ended in a World Series championship, previous reporting indicated a “gap” remained between the sides in negotiations. Evidently, that gap remains, as Rosenthal reports that Los Angeles brass are “exploring” right-handed alternatives to Hernandez they could add to their lineup instead. The three names Rosenthal lists as potential options for the Dodgers are free agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim, Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki, and White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Rosenthal emphasizes, however, that it’s not yet clear how serious the Dodgers are about those pursuits.

Of the three names floated, Suzuki is perhaps the best replacement for Hernandez from the Dodgers’ perspective. He hit .283/.366/.482 with 21 homers and 16 steals in 132 games for the Cubs last year. His high on-base percentage and lesser power make him a somewhat different flavor of hitter than Hernandez, but Suzuki’s 138 wRC+ actually has the edge over Hernandez’s own figure of 134. Both are generally regarded as below-average defenders in an outfield corner, but either one would provide the Dodgers with a big right-handed bat to add to their lineup and a regular for the outfield corner not occupied by Michael Conforto.

Good a fit as Suzuki would be, however, acquiring him may be easier said than done. Rosenthal reports that the Cubs are “not inclined” to trade Suzuki this winter. The club entered the offseason with something of a logjam in the outfield due to the presence of both Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, and that logjam only grew when the club added star right fielder Kyle Tucker in a trade with the Astros earlier this month. Since then, the Cubs dealt Bellinger to the Yankees. While that leaves them in a similar situation as the one they entered the winter in, with two right fielders on the roster and Suzuki likely relegated to regular DH duties, the club still seems to prefer keeping Suzuki rather than parting ways with the talented hitter.

Rosenthal suggests that the Cubs feel that Suzuki would be difficult to replace due to a thin market for impactful right-handed hitters. Aside from Suzuki, the middle of Chicago’s lineup is occupied by switch-hitter Ian Happ as well as lefty bats Tucker and Michael Busch, so Suzuki’s presence adds some much-needed right-handed thump to that mix. Suzuki also holds a no-trade clause, but his previously reported desire to avoid being a full-time DH could make the possibility of a trade that would make him L.A.’s regular right fielder a palatable option. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that the Dodgers could include a talented right-handed bat such as Andy Pages in a package for Suzuki’s services in order to bridge that gap, though six seasons of team control over Pages would be a steep price to pay. Suzuki is under contract for two more seasons and will make $19MM in both 2025 and ’26 before hitting free agency.

Robert, meanwhile, certainly has the potential to match Hernandez’s offensive impact but has yet to demonstrate consistency in the majors. The 27-year-old endured the worst season of his career in 2024 as he hit just .224/.278/.379 (84 wRC+) while striking out at a 33.2% clip, but hit a much more palatable .287/.331/.511 (129 wRC+) over the prior three seasons and is just one season removed from a 4.9 fWAR 2023 campaign. Robert pairs that volatile but potentially impactful bat with impressive speed (he stole 23 bases in just 100 games this year) and quality defense in center field. He also comes with plenty of injury risk, as 2024 was just the second time in his career he played in even 100 games due to a number of trips to the injured list over the years.

Rosenthal suggests that if the Dodgers were to take a chance on the talented-but-inconsistent Robert, he’d slot into center field for Los Angeles. It’s unclear whether that would mean moving Mookie Betts back to right field and playing Tommy Edman at shortstop, or perhaps a move to second base for Edman that pushes Gavin Lux to the bench (or off the team via trade) and leaves right field open for some combination of Andy Pages and James Outman. Robert is guaranteed $17MM in the form of a $15MM salary and a $2MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2026, but could be retained via club options through the end of the 2027 season if acquired. In terms of acquisition cost, it’s possible that Robert would be less pricey than Suzuki given that Rosenthal reports that the White Sox don’t expect to land multiple top prospects in exchange for Robert, though they would want a “meaningful piece” in return for the All-Star.

Kim is somewhat unique as a potential target for multiple reasons. As a free agent, he’d cost the Dodgers nothing but money as opposed to a trade for Suzuki or Robert that would require some sort of player or prospect return headed the other way. He’s also an infielder who derives much of his value from being a plus defender all across the infield dirt. That makes him a tricky positional fit for a Dodgers club that already figures to juggle Betts, Lux, and Miguel Rojas up the middle. While the club could simply move Betts back to right field, it’s possible they’d prefer to keep him on the dirt and play him alongside Kim with one at shortstop and the other at second base. That would leave Lux without a position, however, and also leave a hole in the outfield left to be internal options or another external addition.

Kim is also by far the weakest hitter of the three at the plate and an undeniable downgrade from Hernandez offensively. While Kim has improved leaps and bounds at the plate after a lackluster rookie season, he’s still more or less a league average hitter with a 101 wRC+ in 2024 and a .250/.336/.385 (106 wRC+) line overall since becoming a regular in 2022. It’s also worth noting that he seems ticketed for the injured list to start the season after undergoing shoulder surgery back in September, though Rosenthal reports that he’s targeting a return to the diamond “early” in the 2025 season. Even so, that would leave the Dodgers utilizing their internal options to fill out the lineup card until Kim is ready to return to action.

Reds Among Teams Interested In Luis Robert Jr.

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Apart from Garrett Crochet, Luis Robert Jr. is the biggest trade chip the White Sox have on offer as the club looks to continue its rebuilding process.  Though 2024 was another injury-marred season for Robert, Sox GM Chris Getz told the Chicago Sun-Times’ Daryl Van Schouwen (multiple links) and other reporters that his team has “gotten a lot of interest” in Robert’s services during the Winter Meetings.  The Reds appear to be one of those interested parties, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that the Ohio team has “at least checked in on Robert.”

It’s no secret that Getz is asking for a lot in return for Robert, and the general manager defended his stance by saying that the White Sox are looking for a trade package commensurate to “the talent that he brings to the table” since Robert’s “tools haven’t changed.”

“Obviously, the injury last year was disruptive to [Robert’s] production, but the reason there’s so much interest is because maybe a team feels like they can capture something that perhaps didn’t show up last year,” Getz said.

Cincinnati is an interesting potential trade partner because the Reds also have a lot of high-ceiling younger players coming off disappointing 2024 seasons.  The Reds went 82-80 in 2023 and went into last season looking to make a step forward into contention, but instead fell back to 77 wins because Elly De La Cruz and Tyler Stephenson were basically the only members of the team’s younger core that met expectations.  Whether due to injuries or just plain under-performance, players like Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand now head into the coming season with plenty left to prove about their building-block status.

Speculatively, working out a trade package involving Robert and at least one of these players could help offset some of the concerns the Reds might have about Robert’s long-term health.  Granted, Getz isn’t likely to sell low on Robert unless he absolutely has to, but taking on a player in a trade package that is also a bit of a question mark doesn’t seem like an unreasonable approach on the Reds’ part.  Just as Getz can argue that Robert’s underlying talent is the key factor in trade talks, Cincinnati might take that same argument in regards to any of its potential trade chips.

The outfield is known to be a target area for the Reds, and Robert would address that need in a big way.  With Robert stepping in as new regular center fielder, TJ Friedl could be shifted to left field, if Steer is subsequently moved back to the infield.  There are plenty of ways manager Terry Francona could juggle his lineup around Robert as one of the everyday cornerstones, and if another injury did arise, Friedl, Will Benson, or Stuart Fairchild would presumably still be on hand to step back into center field.

Part of Robert’s trade value is tied to his contract, which is a bargain if the outfielder is as healthy and productive as he was in his All-Star 2023 season.  Robert is set to earn $15MM in 2025, and the White Sox have a pair of $20MM club options (with $2MM buyouts) for both the 2026 and 2027 seasons.  While not huge money by superstar standards, the Reds’ trade efforts could be complicated if the team is indeed operating within very limited payroll parameters.

Ownership might be willing to allot more money to the Reds’ payroll in the special circumstance of a Robert trade coming to fruition, or another creative answer could be explored.  From Chicago’s perspective, Getz is open to ideas, noting that the White Sox have had some talks about three-team trades (presumably involving Robert or Crochet).  “If that’s the best way to acquire the talent for your organization, you do it,” Getz said.

White Sox Maintain High Asking Price On Luis Robert Jr.

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Much of the focus on the White Sox’ trade efforts this offseason will center around Garrett Crochet, and with good reason — he’s the top starting pitcher who’s readily available on the market. However, heading into the 2024 campaign, it was Luis Robert Jr. who was seen as Chicago’s potential top prize at the deadline. Another slate of injuries ruined the talented but fragile center fielder’s ’24 campaign and further added to his reputation as an injury-prone player. The Sox are still hoping to move Robert, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today, but one rival general manager tells Nightengale that Chicago’s asking price is simply unrealistic, given all of the health concerns surrounding Robert.

“You’ve got to hope he finally stays healthy and can be the player everyone envisioned all along,” that GM said. “But the White Sox are acting like he’s some big star center fielder and are asking for your top prospects.”

It’s understandable that the Sox would be reluctant to sell low on Robert. He’s among the most talented players in the sport when healthy — he just simply hasn’t been healthy for the majority of his career. Robert has had six IL placements dating back to the 2021 season, many of which sidelined him for significant periods of time. A hip flexor strain in 2021 sidelined him for more than three months. He missed more than two months this past season owing to the same injury. Robert has also been shelved for a wrist sprain, an MCL sprain, and a more ominous viral infection in 2022 that resulted in blurred vision, dizziness and lightheadedness.

That massive slate of injuries looked to have taken its toll on Robert this past season. He landed on the injured list just a week into the season and returned in June but never really found his footing. Robert hit five homers in his first 36 plate appearances upon activation — but he only collected one other hit in that time. He tallied 396 plate appearances post-injury in 2024 and slashed just .225/.281/.370 with a 32% strikeout rate.

Clearly, that’s not the type of production that’s going to generate interest in a player who’s owed a $15MM salary next season. However, from 2021-23, Robert slashed a combined .287/.331/.511 with 63 homers and 37 steals in just 1292 plate appearances. He played plus-plus defense in center field along the way; despite playing only 301 games in that three-year span, Robert tallied 21 Outs Above Average — good for 12th among all major league outfielders. That strong run was headlined by a 2023 campaign — Robert’s age-25 season — during which he hit .264/.315/.542 and popped 38 home runs in a career-high 595 trips to the plate. Robert made the All-Star team, won a Silver Slugger, and drew some downballot MVP votes.

That’s the type of upside any team would be hoping to land when acquiring Robert. Unfortunately, while his per-game and per-inning performance in 2021-23 was excellent, that 2023 season is the only one in which Robert has exceeded 425 plate appearances. He’s appeared in only 65.9% of possible games in his five-year run with the White Sox.

Robert’s 2024 season wasn’t without its silver linings. His average sprint speed, per Statcast, ticked up to 28.8 feet per second — the second-best mark of his career. He’d been down at a still-strong but not-elite 27.9 ft/sec the first time he dealt with a hip flexor strain. His speed bounced back more this time around. And while his defensive grades dipped, that was largely due to some errant throws. Statcast still rated Robert’s range quite strongly. He also sat in the 84th percentile of MLB hitters in bat speed and typically hit the ball hard (90.1 mph average exit velocity, 40.6% hard-hit rate) when he made contact. He just didn’t make contact enough (career-worst 32.8% strikeout rate).

Robert’s contract pays him $15MM next year. There are a pair of matching $20MM club options for the 2026 and 2027 seasons on the deal. Getting the 2021-23 version of Robert for the next three seasons at a combined $55MM would be a steal, even if he spent about one-third of that time on the injured list, as he did in ’21-’23. (Both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs agree Robert was worth about 10.5 WAR during that run, even with the missed time.)

The problem for interested teams, of course, is that there’s no guarantee he’ll get back to that level of play. Taking a one-year, $15MM flier is probably appealing to many outfield-needy clubs, particularly with the pair of club options looming. Taking on that salary and surrendering top-tier prospects is another story entirely. From the White Sox’ vantage point, trading Robert to simply clear $15MM in guaranteed money would be foolhardy. They barely have any money on the books, with an estimated payroll in the $75MM range, per RosterResource. That’s half their 2024 payroll. Selling low on Robert and watching him bounce back to stardom elsewhere would be agonizing for the Sox and their fans.

It all makes Robert a very difficult player to trade this winter. The Sox have no urgency to shed the relatively small amount that remains on his contract. Other clubs surely feel there’s little sense in trading top-tier prospects for an oft-injured player coming off a 100-game season that was the least-productive stint of his career.

The likeliest outcome would seem to be a midseason trade. If Robert bounces back, the Sox can put him back on the block and effectively market two-plus years of his services. If he continues to struggle, they could move him for a light return, knowing the eventual likelihood was that his option would be bought out anyhow. Perhaps a team could throw caution to the wind and make a surprisingly strong offer for him in the near future, but that seems unlikely. The Sox did move Dylan Cease in spring training when his Cactus League performance quieted some concerns about a pedestrian 2023 season, so it’s possible a big spring from Robert could garner some attention. In all likelihood, though, he seems ticketed to remain on the Sox to open the season, and clubs around the game will keep a close eye on his early performance. If he shows well in April, Chicago GM Chris Getz could follow in Miami counterpart Peter Bendix’s footsteps and make Robert available in late April/early May — as the Marlins did with Luis Arraez.

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