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2011 Vesting Options Update

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We entered the season with nine 2011 vesting option situations to watch.  With one month in the books, several have already been pretty much decided.  Let's take a look.

  • Brian Fuentes, Angels.  A back strain put Fuentes on the DL for a little while, making it unlikely he reaches 55 games finished.  He'd need 51 in the team's remaining 136 games to cause his $9MM option to vest.
  • Billy Wagner, Braves.  Wagner's $6.5MM option vests with 50 games finished.  He's finished eight games so far, and would have a shot at 50.  However, the 38-year-old lefty recently told Braves manager Bobby Cox he'll retire after the season.
  • Trever Miller, Cardinals.  His $2MM option vests with 45 games, and he's appeared in seven so far.  That's behind Miller's typical pace; he's averaged 71 the last three years.  It's probably random, and Miller should still reach 45 games. 
  • Matt Cain, Giants.  The $6.25MM option probably would've vested, but the Giants decided to guarantee Cain's 2011 salary at $7MM as part of an extension.
  • Kerry Wood, Indians.  His $11MM option vests with 55 games finished, but a back injury has Wood just now approaching his 2010 big league debut.
  • Alex Cora, Mets.  His $2MM option vests with 80 starts.  He's started ten games so far.  With Luis Castillo and Jose Reyes in the Mets' middle infield, we can't rule this one out yet.
  • Darren Oliver, Rangers.  His $3.25MM option vests with 59 appearances.  He's already made a dozen, so this is looking likely.
  • Ramon Hernandez, Reds.  His $3.25MM option vests with 120 games played.  Hernandez is at 16 so far, with the red-hot Ryan Hanigan getting more playing time recently.
  • Magglio Ordonez, Tigers.  His $15MM option vests with 135 starts or 540 plate appearances.  He's at 25 games started and 113 plate appearances, so he'll get there barring injury.
  • We're down to five vesting options to monitor: Miller, Cora, Oliver, Hernandez, and Ordonez.  Also keep an eye on Francisco Rodriguez, whose scary $17.5MM option for 2012 vests with 100 games finished in 2010-11, 55 games finished in '11, and a successful physical after the '11 season.  K-Rod has finished nine games on the young season.

Detroit’s 2011 Payroll Situation

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Once the Tigers traded Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson for four pre-arbitration eligible players, the thought was that owner Mike Ilitch was trimming payroll after the recession hit Detroit especially hard. However, he then approved a massive extension for ace Justin Verlander as well as the signing of Johnny Damon, and now his team's Opening Day payroll is expected to be somewhere around $130MM, up from $115MM last year.

Lynn Henning of The Detroit News wrote about the payroll savings GM Dave Dombrowski will enjoy after the season, which are pretty significant. Here's a look at the money the Tigers have coming off the books after the 2010 season…

That's $57.025MM in savings right there, and the team would be wise to avoid letting Magglio Ordonez reach the 540 plate appearances needed for his $15MM option to vest.

Ilitch isn't shy about spending big on the free agent market, and he'll have the money available to add a big bat to complement Miguel Cabrera (Jayson Werth, Aramis Ramirez if he declines his option?) as well as another elite starter to a rotation that already includes Verlander, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer (Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee?) after the season. Keep in mind that I was just throwing some names out there off our 2011 free agents list, and that the Tigers have not been linked to any of those players in any rumors we've seen.

The Tigers are already in a position to compete in the AL Central, and once they shed some dead money after the season, they'll have a chance to jump ahead of the pack if they spend wisely. 

2011 Vesting Options

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Vesting options are always fun for hot stove junkies to follow during the season.  Last year we had Kevin Millwood's $12 Million Out and the Tigers allowing Magglio Ordonez's pricey option to vest.  2011 vesting options to watch this year:

  • Brian Fuentes, Angels: $9MM option vests with 55 games finished.  Fuentes has finished 55+ three times in his career, last year included.  Fernando Rodney will be lurking.
  • Billy Wagner, Braves: $6.5MM option vests with 50 games finished.
  • Trever Miller, Cardinals: $2MM option vests with 45 games, but reverts to a club option with a left arm or shoulder injury.
  • Matt Cain, Giants: $6.25MM option vests with 182.3 innings or 27 starts.  The Giants will exercise this even if it doesn't vest, as the alternative will be going to arbitration with Cain and potentially paying him more.
  • Kerry Wood, Indians: $11MM option vests with 55 games finished.  A trade into a non-closing job could affect Wood's bank account.  That's three closers whose GF totals we'll be monitoring. 
  • Alex Cora, Mets: $2MM option vests with 80 starts.
  • Darren Oliver, Rangers: $3.25MM option vests with 59 appearances.
  • Ramon Hernandez, Reds: $3.25MM option vests with 120 games played.
  • Magglio Ordonez, Tigers: $15MM option vests with 135 starts or 540 plate appearances.
  • Note that a game finished is given to the last non-starting pitcher of record.  Also, thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Odds & Ends: Floyd, Looper, El Duque, Manny

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Links for Monday…

Tigers Notes: Rodney, Perry, Polanco

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It took 163 games to determine the AL Central title in 2009.  The Detroit Tigers were, of course, on the losing end.  After leading the Tigers to the 2006 World Series in his first year as their skipper, Jim Leyland has been unable to steer the club back to the postseason.

As Keith Law writes, "This one will be hard to get past."  Along with Baseball Prospectus and the ESPN Insider staff, Law takes a look at this past season and what the Tigs can do to improve in 2010.  An Insider subscription is required to read the article, but here are some of the key tidbits from the piece:

  • Law highlights the team's lack of production at the DH spot as one of its biggest shortcomings.  However, GM Dave Dombrowski recently said that the team is unlikely to employ a full-time DH next season.  If for some reason he has a change of heart, he will find more than a few candidates on the open market.
  • Bullpen staples Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney are headed for free agency.  Law says that Rodney "has the closer's mantle but not closer command."  Ryan Perry should be able to step into that role eventually, but currently lacks the control to do so.  if the youngster is asked to be the fireman and Lyon and Rodney walk, it'll leave a significant void in the 'pen.
  • Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus points out the poor performances of mid-season acquisitions Jarrod Washburn and Aubrey Huff.  After posting a 2.64 ERA, 7.4 H/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 20 starts with Seattle, Washburn recorded a 7.33 ERA, 10.7 H/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in eight starts.  Huff was supposed to strengthen the middle of the Tigers' lineup but instead floundered as he recorded an OPS of .567.
  • Tigers' second baseman Placido Polanco is a free agent after completing a four-year deal worth $4.6MM annually.  The article says that retaining him would require $6-7MM per season, a steep price for a player who is not likely to improve much on his 2009 season in which he hit .285/.331/.396 with 10 HRs.  Polanco, who turns 34 tomorrow, has been a $50MM value over the last three years according to Fangraphs. 
  • When Buster Olney polled six GMs asking if Detroit would keep Polanco, they were split.  Law & Co. think that there's a good chance that Polanco plays elsewhere next season.
  • Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus writes that 24-year-old Scott Sizemore is ready to take over for Polanco at second base.  Scouts feel that he will become a well-rounded offensive player who should be able to hit ".280-plus with 12-15 home runs, 60 walks and 15-20 stolen bases annually."
  • Because of high-priced commitments to Magglio Ordonez and Dontrelle Willis, the Tigers don't have much financial flexibility.  Expect Detroit to find their next closer on the cheap from within the organization.
  • Kahrl closes the piece by saying, "they need a major upgrade at DH or left if they're going to offensively afford themselves a luxury like a plus defender at shortstop."  Dave Dombrowski will have to get creative as he is handcuffed by several bad contracts.

Tigers Notes: Rodney, Perry, Polanco

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It took 163 games to determine the AL Central title in 2009.  The Detroit Tigers were, of course, on the losing end.  After leading the Tigers to the 2006 World Series in his first year as their skipper, Jim Leyland has been unable to steer the club back to the postseason.

As Keith Law writes, "This one will be hard to get past."  Along with Baseball Prospectus and the ESPN Insider staff, Law takes a look at this past season and what the Tigs can do to improve in 2010.  An Insider subscription is required to read the article, but here are some of the key tidbits from the piece:

  • Law highlights the team's lack of production at the DH spot as one of its biggest shortcomings.  However, GM Dave Dombrowski recently said that the team is unlikely to employ a full-time DH next season.  If for some reason he has a change of heart, he will find more than a few candidates on the open market.
  • Bullpen staples Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney are headed for free agency.  Law says that Rodney "has the closer's mantle but not closer command."  Ryan Perry should be able to step into that role eventually, but currently lacks the control to do so.  if the youngster is asked to be the fireman and Lyon and Rodney walk, it'll leave a significant void in the 'pen.
  • Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus points out the poor performances of mid-season acquisitions Jarrod Washburn and Aubrey Huff.  After posting a 2.64 ERA, 7.4 H/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 20 starts with Seattle, Washburn recorded a 7.33 ERA, 10.7 H/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in eight starts.  Huff was supposed to strengthen the middle of the Tigers' lineup but instead floundered as he recorded an OPS of .567.
  • Tigers' second baseman Placido Polanco is a free agent after completing a four-year deal worth $4.6MM annually.  The article says that retaining him would require $6-7MM per season, a steep price for a player who is not likely to improve much on his 2009 season in which he hit .285/.331/.396 with 10 HRs.  Polanco, who turns 34 tomorrow, has been a $50MM value over the last three years according to Fangraphs. 
  • When Buster Olney polled six GMs asking if Detroit would keep Polanco, they were split.  Law & Co. think that there's a good chance that Polanco plays elsewhere next season.
  • Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus writes that 24-year-old Scott Sizemore is ready to take over for Polanco at second base.  Scouts feel that he will become a well-rounded offensive player who should be able to hit ".280-plus with 12-15 home runs, 60 walks and 15-20 stolen bases annually."
  • Because of high-priced commitments to Magglio Ordonez and Dontrelle Willis, the Tigers don't have much financial flexibility.  Expect Detroit to find their next closer on the cheap from within the organization.
  • Kahrl closes the piece by saying, "they need a major upgrade at DH or left if they're going to offensively afford themselves a luxury like a plus defender at shortstop."  Dave Dombrowski will have to get creative as he is handcuffed by several bad contracts.

Odds & Ends: Chipper, Ordonez, Schultz

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Links for Wednesday…

Magglio Ordonez’s 2010 Option Vests

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Magglio Ordonez has made his third plate appearance of the night in Detroit against the Royals, reaching base on an Alex Gordon error. The at-bat means his 2010 option has vested, as expected. Making his 1080th plate appearance in 2008 and 2009 combined, Ordonez reached the minimum number of PA required to guarantee his $18MM option.

When the Tigers benched and platooned the 35-year-old right fielder earlier in the year, it seemed unlikely that he would play enough to trigger the option, but a torrid second half (.364/.438/.521) has made it impossible for Jim Leyland to keep him out of the lineup.

While Ordonez's hot bat has helped the Tigers in their 2009 playoff push, his overall production has declined significantly. He has only homered seven times, after hitting 20-plus in each of the last three seasons. His age and injury history suggest the odds are against his 2010 numbers rebounding to his career averages of .311/.371/.512.

With $18MM now committed to Maggs next season, the Tigers will have less flexibility for other roster moves, such as re-signing or replacing closer Fernando Rodney and second baseman Placido Polanco.

Odds & Ends: Granderson, Magglio, Hampton

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Another round of links…

  • Lynn Henning of the Detroit News wonders if the Tigers will consider offers for Curtis Granderson after the season. Though he has 27 homers and 20 steals, Granderson has struggled at the plate this year, particularly against lefties. He has a batting average on balls in play below .300 for the first time in his career, and it has factored in to a .248/.331/.457 line that's solid, but below Granderson's standard. (He's hitting more fly balls than usual, which could explain the BABIP dip and rise in homers.)
  • After months of anticipation, it looks like Magglio Ordonez will see his 2010 option kick in tonight. With three more trips to the plate, he can guarantee himself an $18MM salary next year. 
  • Mike Hampton had surgery on his left rotator cuff and will miss the 2010 season, according to MLB.com's Alyson Footer.
  • If Josh Johnson makes all of his scheduled starts, he'll earn $50K in incentives before the season ends, as MLB.com's Joe Frisaro points out.
  • Troy Renck of the Denver Post says there's a reasonable chance Jason Giambi returns to the Rockies next season.

Maggs, Millwood Inching Toward Vesting Options

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7:07pm: For what it's worth, manager Jim Leyland said "He's going to get it," referring to Ordonez's option. "He's swinging the bat good. I need him in the lineup. I'm hoping he can be more of a force for us down the stretch. That would really be a boost to our offense." The quote comes courtesy of MLive.com's Chris Iott. Magglio is in the Tigers' lineup tonight, and has already come to the plate twice.

2:08pm: Big-money vesting options are at stake this month for a pair of Scott Boras clients.  Right fielder Magglio Ordonez's $18MM option for 2010 vests with just eight more plate appearances.  And pitcher Kevin Millwood is just 13 outs away from locking in a $12MM salary for next year.

The Ordonez situation is simple.  He's been hitting well since the beginning of August, and the Tigers are not inclined to mess around trying to avoid the vesting option.  Maggs figures to be removed from the potential 2010 free agents list Tuesday night against the Royals.

Millwood is more complicated.  Evan Grant of D Magazine questions the pitcher's health and declining velocity, and suggests benching him may be the Rangers' best chance at winning.  If so, the Rangers would have to play it off as a coincidence that the option came remarkably close to vesting.  To be fair, Millwood has been knocked around in four of his last five starts.  Perhaps Boras' grievance would point out that Millwood remained in the rotation after posting a 6.75 ERA in July, and how there hasn't been talk of him switching to a mop-up relief role for the rest of the season.

MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan grilled Rangers president Nolan Ryan and GM Jon Daniels about Millwood on Thursday (before the pitcher's Saturday stinker), and both execs insisted the vesting option is not a factor in the manager's decision-making.  Ryan went as far to say, "I would never do that to him."

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