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Manny Machado

East Notes: Machado, Adonis Garcia, Marlins, Braves

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The Orioles “continue to hear from multiple teams interested in trading for Manny Machado,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who doesn’t believe the club has a firm deadline on trade talks for their star infielder.  As Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com wrote six days ago, “These incremental updates are white noise.”  Unfortunately, that’s all we’ve got right now!  Connolly’s best guess at that time: Machado will be traded before Opening Day.  For now, we’ll continue to wait for the hot stove to light.

Quick Hits: Astros, Machado, Hamilton

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In a dramatic and suspenseful article, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic chronicles the recent harrowing life-or-death race to get Astros first base coach Rich Dauer to Houston Methodist Hospital. On the day of the Astros’ championship parade, Dauer was present at the official ceremony to honor the team. He began to stagger as if drunk, and stepped to the back of the stage. From there, a panicked attempt to get Dauer to the hospital amidst a crowd of millions of people unfolded behind the scenes. The piece is incredibly well-written, and thankfully has a happy ending. It’s definitely worth a full read.

More from around MLB as we approach the end of December…

  • Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun wonders if this offseason’s drama surrounding Orioles star Manny Machado could have been avoided. Meoli takes a look at the chances the Orioles had to explore trades or a contract extension with their prized third baseman, but he ultimately comes to the conclusion that there was never a reason to trade him until now. It also seems as though by the time Machado was a safe fixture in the O’s lineup, his value was sky-high, and he was close enough to free agency that an extension didn’t make sense for him (or his agent). While it remains to be seen whether Baltimore will actually end up dealing Machado, Meoli’s piece sheds some light on a tough set of circumstances for the Orioles.
  • The Giants and Reds have remained active in talks about a trade that would send Billy Hamilton to San Francisco, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Reds have reportedly shown interest in Heliot Ramos, who is largely considered to be the Giants’ best prospect (he credits The Athletic with first report of this news). Hamilton, of course, is regarded as one of the best defenders in the game, and also creates a lot of runs with his speed alone. His career .298 on-base percentage is widely regarded as his achilles heel, but he could still provide plenty of value as an elite center fielder in AT&T Park’s spacious outfield. A couple months back, I wrote about the trade market for Hamilton, noting that the Giants were the best match for his services.

AL East Notes: Span, Moreland, Hosmer, Machado

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Here’s the latest from around the AL East…

  • Born and raised in Tampa, Denard Span is happy to be playing for the Rays, even if his stint could potentially be a brief one, the outfielder tells Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Times.  “Nothing would surprise me if I get traded or flipped or whatever the terminology is. I guess until I show up to spring training then it will probably sink in that I’m a Ray,” Span said.  “There are so many possibilities, but I definitely would love to put on this hometown uniform. It would be a dream come true. It was something I always imagined.”  With Evan Longoria now dealt to the Giants for a four-player package that included Span, the outfielder now has the highest salary on the Rays’ 2018 payroll, which likely makes him a trade chip for the cost-conscious franchise.  Still, Span also has some value to the Rays on the field and in the clubhouse, so the team could at least begin the season with Span in a corner outfield role.
  • While there is a gap in ability between Eric Hosmer and Mitch Moreland, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe notes that the Red Sox may have found value in re-signing Moreland to a two-year, $13MM deal than in spending over $100MM more to sign Hosmer on what would have been a six- or seven-year contract.  As Speier observes, Hosmer is the better hitter overall, though Moreland offers more power and he had a higher xwOBA in 2017.  Hosmer could hit more home runs playing in Fenway Park, though Speier argues that the Sox would’ve been risking a lot on Hosmer successfully adjusting his swing from his current grounder-heavy offensive approach.  Moreland is also clearly the better defender of the two first basemen, at least per the Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150 metrics.
  • While the Orioles have stated that they will keeping Manny Machado, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com guesses that the star third baseman will be in another uniform before Opening Day.  A Machado trade is “still under consideration no matter what words trickle out” since the O’s could easily reverse course if another team meets their asking price.  While several complications could certainly prevent a trade from taking place given Machado’s stature, Connolly believes the biggest hurdle was the Orioles’ decision to consider trading Machado whatsoever, and “taking that step tells me that they aren’t going backward.”

Olney’s Latest: Hosmer, Padres, Machado, Jays, Red Sox

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The Padres have aggressively pursued free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer this offseason, but with the team not ready to contend, the organization is split on whether it would be wise to sign him, Buster Olney of ESPN reports. As of the Winter Meetings, the Padres “were prepared to invest” roughly six years and $120MM in Hosmer, according to executives who spoke with Olney. That would easily surpass Wil Myers’ six-year, $83MM pact as the largest in Padres history, though it would be a questionable investment for a team that could take at least a couple more seasons to return to the playoffs. By then, Hosmer (currently 28) may be out of his prime.

More rumblings from Olney:

  • The Orioles reportedly don’t expect to trade Manny Machado, but they’re still more open than ever to moving him, writes Olney. As such, Olney doesn’t rule out a deal coming together, especially with Machado’s value being higher now than it will be over the summer. At the same time, it “seems a distinct possibility” the O’s will keep Machado through next season because of owner Peter Angelos’ reluctance to rebuild, Olney suggests. In that scenario, Machado would depart as a free agent, presumably after receiving and rejecting a qualifying offer, and the Orioles would only get draft compensation in return.
  • Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins has suggested on multiple occasions this winter that the club won’t trade third baseman Josh Donaldson prior to the season. Indeed, the Jays “fully intend” to start the year with Donaldson on their roster, per Olney. After missing the playoffs in 2017, Toronto is not ready to rebuild; rather, it’ll attempt to return to its 2015-16 form in the final season of Donaldson’s contract.
  • The Red Sox continue to have interest in the best hitter available in free agency, outfielder J.D. Martinez. But an agreement doesn’t seem imminent, as Olney relays they’re willing to wait out agent Scott Boras if necessary. There aren’t many clear suitors for Martinez outside of Boston, thanks in part to some teams trying to avoid the luxury-tax threshold and others rebuilding, which could make it difficult for Boras to drive up the price for Martinez.

Cafardo’s Latest: Machado, Red Sox, Yankees, Osuna

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A few AL East rumblings from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

  • The Red Sox and Yankees remain interested in Orioles third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, though neither team has “moved the needle” in talks with the O’s, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Baltimore is reportedly done actively shopping Machado, as it doesn’t believe any other club has put forth a suitable offer for the superstar as he prepares for a contract year. Given that both the Red Sox and Yankees are in the Orioles’ division, it figures to be especially difficult for either to persuade the Orioles to move Machado. The left side of Boston’s infield looks to be in fine shape anyway with Rafael Devers at third and Xander Bogaerts at short. The Yankees, on the other hand, don’t have an obvious third base solution to place next to shortstop Didi Gregorius.
  • Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna has garnered plenty of trade inquiries this winter, according to Cafardo. However, there’s no indication the Jays are considering moving the proven Osuna, who’s still young (23 in February) and set to play his first of three potential arbitration years in 2018. The right-hander turned in his third straight excellent year last season, tossing 64 innings of 3.38 ERA ball with career-best strikeout (11.67 K/9), walk (1.27 BB/9) and groundball (48 percent) rates.
  • While Boston had interest in first baseman Carlos Santana before he joined the Phillies, the Red Sox never actually made him an offer, per Cafardo. Santana secured a three-year, $60MM guarantee, easily outdoing the two-year, $13MM pact the Sox handed newly re-signed first baseman Mitch Moreland this week.

Heyman’s Latest: Blue Jays, D-Backs, Cobb, Lagares, Castro

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Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reported on a few items of note in his latest column and has followed up with some additional bits of information. We’ll run down some of the key takeaways here:

  • While the Blue Jays have been quiet thus far, Heyman says they could be lurking on a few interesting names. In the outfield, J.D. Martinez is a legitimate target, he says, as are Carlos Gonzalez and Lorenzo Cain. The club is also considering quality utility options such as Eduardo Nunez and Howie Kendrick. Meanwhile, Toronto has reached out to the Padres on Brad Hand, who’s a highly valuable relief asset. It remains to be seen whether the Jays will be willing to pony up a lot of cash or prospect assets to make a significant win-now move, but it’s notable that the team is at least exploring some notable possibilities.
  • The Diamondbacks reportedly had real interest in Orioles infielder Manny Machado, but Heyman says the Snakes were not willing to consider moving third bagger Jake Lamb in a deal. That’s not terribly surprising; after all, the 27-year-old Lamb has only just reached arbitration eligibility and posted consecutive solid campaigns in which he has maintained a composite .248/.345/.498 batting line. Though he’s clearly an inferior overall player to Machado, Lamb is the type of affordable, quality regular that a team with Arizona’s payroll can ill afford to part with.
  • Thus far, free agent righty Alex Cobb “is thought to have been asking for about $20 million a year,” Heyman writes, noting that his agents may view Mike Leake as a comp. Of course, Cobb is older and less durable than Leake was when he hit the open market, though Cobb also has a loftier established ceiling on the mound (at least, dating to his output before undergoing Tommy John surgery).
  • There’s some interest from rival organizations in Mets center fielder Juan Lagares, Heyman reports on Twitter. Of course, it’s far from clear that the New York organization has real interest in dealing away the 28-year-old. To the contrary, indications to date have been that the Mets expect to utilize Lagares quite heavily. The rangy defender last topped 400 plate appearances in 2015 and has not posted a league-average season with the bat since the season before that.
  • The Marlins are still indicating to rivals that they’re not particularly interested in dealing Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto, Heyman tweets, though of course that could yet be a bargaining stance. Notably, though, the Fish are said to be seeking ways of parting with the recently acquired contract of Starlin Castro. Though Miami executive Gary Denbo indicated earlier today the club intends to keep Castro, it certainly would not be surprising for Miami to strike a deal if it means shedding yet more salary obligations to a player who likely won’t be a part of the organization’s next contending roster.

Orioles Do Not Expect To Trade Manny Machado

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With no sufficient bid emerging, the Orioles are now indicating to interested organizations that star third baseman Manny Machado “is staying put,” according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links). That could yet change if a big new offer comes in the door, but it seems that Baltimore will no longer actively shop the pending free agent.

On the one hand, then, this news isn’t that impactful. The club had indicated it was nearing the quitting point on active trade talks after prior reports made clear that the team would move on to other plans if its needs weren’t met. Teams that want to land the youthful star know they need to come with a significant package of talent to get something done. Baltimore has expressed a need to get back two quality, controllable starters to make a deal, and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com’s report from this morning suggests the asking price remains the same.

On the other, it’s an important moment for the O’s offseason strategy. With Zach Britton’s Achilles injury also seemingly taking the club’s best relievers (Britton and Brad Brach) out of trade consideration, it seems the organization will largely maintain its existing core and go out looking to add starters in other ways. With at least two rotation pieces still on the wish list, and no interest in chasing the market for the best-available arms, the Orioles front office will need to work hard to find value.

That said, the rotation market has not moved much at all to this point, so there are plenty of options still out there. Whether or not the slow free agent action will lead to any particular number of bargains remains to be seen, but executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette is certainly no stranger to waiting out late opportunities.

Barring a big change in the interest levels from other teams, Machado will evidently play out his original control rights in Baltimore before reaching free agency after the 2018 season. The sides will still need to work out a final-season salary — MLBTR projects a hefty $17.3MM arbitration pay-out — but there’s little reason to think at this point that an extension will realistically be considered.

Still, it’s wise not to rule things out so long as there’s still work to be done in the winter. An extension or trade would surprise at this point, but both are hypothetically just as plausible as ever.

Interestingly, should trade talks get moving again, Kubatko notes that the Cubs and Orioles discussed a variety of notable names. While there’s no reason to think all three Chicago players would have been included in the same deal, Addison Russell, Albert Almora, and Mike Montgomery all came up in chatter.

Infield Rumors: Machado, Donaldson, Franco, Frazier, Alonso

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Indications are that the market for Orioles third baseman Manny Machado could wrap up soon, and team president of baseball operations Dan Duquette seemingly confirmed that is indeed the case. The organization does not intend to “focus on that much more after tomorrow,” Duquette told reporters including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). There’s no indication that the injury to Zach Britton will change the club’s plans, though it stands to reason that it could add at least some impetus to the possibility of a trade.

More notes on the third-base market…

  • Meanwhile, the Cardinals perhaps have some cause to believe the Blue Jays are willing to consider moving star third baseman Josh Donaldson, per Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He suggests there’s some indication from the Jays side that the team isn’t dead-set against a move if it brought back MLB pieces as well as prospect value. To an extent, the Toronto organization has something of the opposite problem that the Cards do: the former needs multiple assets while the latter is loaded with solid players but would like a few premium pieces. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs had posited this sort of scenario a few weeks back.
  • While the above-noted third baggers have drawn most of the attention this winter, another — Maikel Franco of the Phillies — has also been chatted about here and there. At present, though, there’s no indication that the Philadelphia front office is willing to give up Franco’s upside when his value has ebbed; indeed, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets that a rival executive has been left with the impression the Phils won’t sell low on the talented youngster.
  • Though Todd Frazier has played primarily third base in his career, Crasnick also tweets that Frazier has expressed a willingness to move around the diamond in an effort to increase his market. Frazier has experience at first base in the Majors, and Crasnick notes that he’s willing to play some corner outfield as well. Frazier did log nearly 1000 minor league innings at shortstop, though, and there have been previous reports that some clubs believe Frazier can be an occasional option at second base as well. Though Frazier doesn’t have much big league experience elsewhere on the diamond, he’s been long been a plus defender at third base (+26 DRS and +26.1 UZR over the past five seasons combined).
  • The Indians are looking at a variety of possibilities now that Carlos Santana has moved on. Per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, via Twitter, the club has reached out to free agent Yonder Alonso, who’s one of a few open-market names that has now been linked to Cleveland. The club could yet pursue a rather wide variety of players given the flexibility of some of its internal pieces. It still appears wise to expect that achieving value — rather than just targeting specific players — will be the driving force given the club’s payroll constraints.

Latest On Manny Machado

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Manny Machado has emerged as the most talked-about name on the trade market in the wake of reports that the Orioles are shopping the 25-year-old, who will be a free agent next winter and quite possibly in line for a precedent-setting contract. Here’s the latest on Machado…

  • Jon Heyman of Fan Rag adds some further details to the situation in a follow-up to Encina’s report. The offers for Machado haven’t been sufficient to this point in Baltimore’s eyes, and the organization will take him off the market in the coming days if the asking price isn’t met. Of course, Heyman also notes that there’s no “hard deadline;” rather, the O’s would “shift to other priorities” if there’s no momentum toward a trade. Interestingly, per Heyman, the O’s see the Jason Heyward–Shelby Miller swap as the kind of arrangement that would pique their interest.

Earlier Updates

  • Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that if the Orioles are to trade Machado, they hope to come to an agreement with a team by the end of the week. Baltimore isn’t backing down off its asking price of two starting pitchers that it can control for “at least the next four or five years,” however, which figures to be far too rich a price to pay for many clubs that have interest. High as Machado’s ceiling might be, that amount of team control over MLB-ready starters will very likely be valued more highly around the league. If the O’s don’t find a trade offer they like, Encina writes that they’re content to wait until the summer and revisit the possibility of trading him then.
  • Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago tweets that both the Cubs and the White Sox are still involved in conversations with the Orioles regarding Machado. The Cubs are stacked with infield options, though none of their shortstop options come with a track record as impressive as that of Machado. The White Sox, meanwhile, reportedly declined to include their top-ranked prospects in their initial offer to the Orioles. It doesn’t seem prudent for the rebuilding South Siders to mortgage much of their future to acquire one year of Machado when they’re not expected to contend for the division in 2018.
  • Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron takes a look at Machado’s value on the trade market, opining that suggested packages including MLB assets such as Xander Bogaerts, Eduardo Rodriguez and Addison Russell all represent marked overpays, Machado’s excellence notwithstanding. While Machado himself could be worth as much as $50MM on a one-year deal, Cameron suggests, the long-term value of each of those controllable assets pushes their overall value into comparable territory, and subtracting them from a roster inherently negates some of the upgrade that Machado would bring to the table.

Market Notes: Red Sox, Hosmer, Royals, Cards, Donaldson, Mets, Kipnis, A-Gon

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Signing Mitch Moreland doesn’t take the Red Sox out of the market for hitting, president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski told reporters including Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. And adding another stick wouldn’t necessarily mean trading away from the current roster to create space, the club’s top baseball decisionmaker added. But it surely does not seem that Boston will sign another first baseman; rather, a DH/corner outfield bat seems the likeliest possibility.

  • Boston’s decision seems to take it out of the market for Eric Hosmer, which has raised some eyebrows in Royals country. As Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes, there are still many barriers remaining to a return to Kansas City for Hosmer, including the possibility that agent Scott Boras will find a way to bring some new suitors into the picture. But keeping Hosmer in Royals blue for the future now seems more plausible than might have been expected when the organization began giving indication it would rebuild. Of course, even if that comes to pass, the general rebuilding plan will remain, the Star’s Rustin Dodd notes on Twitter.
  • The Cardinals appear to be showing more interest in veteran Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson than in Manny Machado of the Orioles, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Nightengale posits that the club may believe it’s better situated to pursue a long-term deal with Donaldson — who’s much older than Machado, though both will hit the open market at the same time — which would increase his appeal. Of course, it’s important to bear in mind there’s still no real indication that Toronto will move Donaldson and the St. Louis front office has suggested recently that it’s not all that keen on giving up significant assets for a rental.
  • While there has been some chatter recently connecting the Mets to Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post says that possibility is not as likely as it has come to seem. Especially with Carlos Santana moving on, says Davidoff, the Indians are not particularly inclined to part with Kipnis’s contract for a marginal return. New York is trying to thread the needle in finding an upgrade at the position, with the organization concerned with giving up too much in salary or prospect value to make a deal. As the Post’s Joel Sherman writes, the Mets’ lack of top-end, marketable pre-MLB talent has posed an under-appreciated barrier to its winter activity.
  • The Mets, of course, are also eyeing the addition of another option at the first base position. New York had some interest in Moreland, per the above-cited Cafardo piece. And as James Wagner of the New York Times tweets, the Mets intend at least to take a look at the newest entrant onto the open market: Adrian Gonzalez. The veteran will be looking to bounce back after a rough, injury-plagued 2017 season, though he could conceivably bring some upside at a very appealing price.
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