Marcell Ozuna

Three Teams Who’ve Yet To Win Their Division

By TC Zencka | May 9, 2020 at 6:31pm CDT

It is somewhat amazing that there are three National League teams – one each for the West, East, and Central – that have yet to win their division.

Make no mistake, the American League has its share of heartbreak. The Mariners have yet to return to the playoffs after their 116-win season in 2001. The Rangers are far away as ever from capturing their first World Series after the so-close-you-can-taste-it near-misses of 2010 and 2011. Fans of the Astros and Red Sox have suffered different brands of heartbreak after the legitimacy of their recent winners was called into question.

But in the National League, the Rockies, Marlins, and Pirates have never won their respective divisions.

Granted, the Pirates were crowned champs of the National League East 9 times, including a three-peat for Jim Leyland’s clubs from 1990 to 1992 and a title-winner way back in 1979 – but since they moved to the NL Central in 1994: goose eggs. That’s a 26-year-run without a divisional crown, a mark of futility eclipsed only by the Rockies and Marlins. Colorado and Florida both entered the league in 1993, and neither has landed the top spot in their division in the 27 seasons since.

Back in the junior circuit, every team in the AL East has won since 2010 (Tampa Bay). In the Central, the White Sox have the longest drought (11 seasons), going back to their first-place finish in 2008. Everyone in the AL West has taken their turn at the top since 2012 – except the Mariners, of course, who won the division in 2001 and 1997.

But each division in the National League has its slow-and-steady competitor, so let’s take a quick look at each.

Colorado Rockies

Of these three clubs, the Rockies’ reputation took the fewest hits over the last 27 years. The Blake Street Bombers hold a particular place in baseball lore, and there’s a general sense of “unfortunate circumstances” around the Rox because of the thin air in Colorado. The impossibility of housing a winning pitching staff at Coors Field is baseball cliche now, but that doesn’t make the challenge any less potent.

Here’s what I wrote of Colorado in their Offseason In Review post back in March: “Colorado pitching, after all, has proven one of the more frustrating team-building challenges in the major leagues. The Sisyphean task of constructing even a league-average pitching staff at Coors Field persists year-after-year. Over the course of their 27-season history, the Rockies posted a league-average or better team ERA just three times (2010, 2009, 2007). In 2010, Jim Tracy’s 83-win squad finished with an exactly-league-average ERA, but those other two seasons — 2009, 2007 — happen to be two of the only three seasons in which the Rockies won 90 games in their history.”

Adding to the task at hand for Colorado, there’s at least a possibility that ownership believes this team is better than it is. They lost 91 games last year and have exhibited zero financial flexibility. If they end up losing close to 90 games again (or the equivalent in whatever kind of season is played in 2020), then the Rockies are still probably in the decline phase, not yet having rebooted into a full-blown rebuild. Rebuilds, of course, are time-intensive when done right, and very time-intensive when rushed.

The Rockies have made the postseason a handful of times, and they won the pennant in 2007, but they’re caught in no-man’s-land now. The Dodgers have won the division 7 years running, and Walker Buehler, Cody Bellinger, and company have plenty left in the tank. The Padres’ stable of young arms makes them one of the more intriguing up-and-coming teams in the league, and the Diamondbacks continue to impress with their ability to retool on the fly. After coming within a play-in game of taking the crown from the Dodgers in 2018, the Rockies might have missed their best shot.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins entered the league at a tough time to be a member of the NL East. The Atlanta Braves held a hammerlock on the division, taking the crown every season from 1995 until 2005 (they were in the NL West before that). To their credit, the Marlins made themselves into a competitive squad pretty quick, making the playoffs as a wild card in 1997, just their fifth season of existence. The organization made its name the year after, however, in selling off the pieces of their World Series winner and cratering into a 108-loss squad. After that horrid 1998 season, it took the Marlins five more years to get back to the playoffs again, at which point it was second-verse-same-as-the-first. They didn’t sink quite so fast or quite so far the second time around, but they also haven’t recovered (no playoff appearances since 2003).

That said, the Marlins have begun to see the light from their decade-plus in limbo. MLBTR’s own Mark Polishuk wrapped up the Marlins offseason back in March with this: “It’s a sign of progress, however, that the scorched-earth phase of the rebuild seems to be over. Villar, Kintzler, or other veterans on short-term deals could well end up being moved at the trade deadline, but it doesn’t seem like younger talent is on the move…Miami seems ready to find out if the young players it already has in the fold could end up being part of that next Marlins winner, and it will be intriguing to see which of the pitchers and position players take that next step in 2020.”

The current era of Marlins baseball is best known for shepherding the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna out of town prior to the 2018 season. But they’re also a unique entrant on this mini-list because they won not just one, but two World Series titles over this span. Derek Jeter now helms the organization, and though they don’t have that face-of-the-franchise type player soaking up their spotlight, they’ve become increasingly competitive. Heading into whichever season of baseball comes next, they’ll have a decent collection of starting pitchers to keep them in games – with a smaller host of position player prospects nearing the majors. Whether they have that franchise-changing talent in the upper ranks is unclear. Business might not yet be booming in Miami, but it’s better.

Pittsburgh Pirates

As stated above, it’s a bit unfair for the Pirates to be lumped in with the expansion clubs from the nineties, as they do have a history of success in the major leagues. They have 9 division crowns, 7 World Series appearances, and 5 World Series banners. But that’s all ancient history.

Since moving to the NL Central in 1994, the Pirates are a firm contender for the most moribund franchise in the sport. The departure of Barry Bonds after the 1992 season put an unfortunate face on their decline – much in the way that Babe Ruth’s departure doomed Boston baseball for so long – but there has been ample time to rebound from those back-to-back game 7 losses to Atlanta in 1991 and 1992.

In the time since the Pirates’ primary distinction is claiming the title for the longest streak of losing seasons in North American sports history. Forget about division titles. The Pirates weren’t able to finish over .500 one time from 1993 to 2012.

Pittsburgh fans finally had something to cheer for in 2013 when Clint Hurdle’s club broke through with 94 wins and a wild card berth. They even won that first playoff game against the division rival Cincinnati Reds and pushed another rival – the Cardinals – to five games in the NLDS. The club followed its star outfield of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco to two more wild card berths in the following two seasons. Unfortunately, they were unable to get more than one playoff game in either of those years.

After finishing over .500 again in 2018, last season brought on a complete reset. Most of the organizations’ management turned over, and the remaining faces of those competitive clubs – Hurdle, Marte – were also sent packing. The organization is now in the hands of GM Ben Cherington, but they’re facing a complete philosophical overhaul. While they have talent, they’re not an easy club to put a timeline on returning to contention. Not until they put together a pitching staff with a more effective (and less pugilistic) philosophy. The division isn’t dominated by one team like the current AL West, but the Cardinals build a winner year after year, and the Cubs and Brewers aren’t far off in terms of their recent consistency.

Looking ahead, a shortened season in 2020 could open the window for a bizarre sort of division champ. All hope is not lost. On the whole, however, I don’t think there are a lot of pundits who would pick any of the Rockies, Marlins, or Pirates to breakthrough next season. Still, it’s bound to happen one day, right? All three teams will work to end their respective droughts, and in the meantime, thank goodness for the wild card.

(Poll link for app users.)

Marcell Ozuna Discusses Cardinals, Qualifying Offer Decision

By Mark Polishuk | February 27, 2020 at 2:19pm CDT

Marcell Ozuna signed a one-year, $18MM deal with the Braves in January, after an offseason that saw the outfielder connected to multiple teams, including a potential reunion with the Cardinals. Though he turned down the Cards’ one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer, “if I knew before it was going to happen like this, I would have taken it,” Ozuna told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “But I wanted to make sure I had a chance (at a contract) for my career.”

As it happened, such an acceptable long-term offer didn’t materialize over the early weeks of the offseason, leading Ozuna and his representatives to pivot to the idea of a one-year deal and a quick return to free agency next winter without the burden of the draft pick compensation attached to his services for rejecting the QO. (Players cannot be issued more than one qualifying offer in their career.) Before taking Atlanta’s one-year deal, Ozuna turned several multi-year offers that were reportedly on the table, including a three-year/$50MM offer from the Reds.

There’s some obvious risk in Ozuna’s decision, as injury or a down year would erase his chances at landing another major long-term contract, and he’ll be re-entering the market heading into his age-30 season. But, the outfielder is choosing to bet on himself to deliver a better platform year than in 2019, when he hit a solid but unspectacular .241/.328/.472 with 29 homers over 549 PA for the Cardinals, and missed over a month recovering from a fractured finger.

Ozuna made no secret of his desire to return to St. Louis, and after extensions talks proved fruitless last season, he and his agency (MDR Sports Management) remained in contact with the Cardinals “every time something moved” in his market, Ozuna said.

“If they offer a good offer, I would get it. But they didn’t do it….I thought the Cardinals were going to offer something (early), but they didn’t do that after I rejected the qualifying offer,” Ozuna told Goold. “So, I got patient. And I waited. And I talked to my agent a lot of the time. We were waiting — and then Atlanta was the team that gave me the opportunity for the one year and a good deal. I had to do that.”

There don’t appear to be any hard feelings between Ozuna and the Cardinals, as he is “not disappointed” with how the winter played out. “I feel like they did not give me the opportunity, so I had to walk away. It’s business,” Ozuna said.

It ended up being a pretty quiet offseason for the Cardinals overall, who re-signed Adam Wainwright and Matt Wieters, and signed Kwang-Hyun Kim and Brad Miller but otherwise didn’t pull the trigger on any major moves, despite constant rumors. The club’s one notable trade was a multi-player deal with the Rays that saw the Cardinals actually subtract from their Major League roster, moving Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay. At the time of that trade, there was some thought that St. Louis could be making room in its outfield to potentially accommodate Ozuna, but instead, the Cards were simply subtracting from an outfield picture that is still pretty crowded as we approach Opening Day.

It can certainly be argued that Ozuna represents a more proven MLB asset than any of Harrison Bader, Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Dylan Carlson, and Ozuna also seems like a better option at this point than veteran Dexter Fowler, who is entering his age-34 season and is coming three inconsistent years for the Cards. However, with so many outfielders in the mix, the Cardinals were seemingly more comfortable with counting on some members of this group to emerge than they were in offering Ozuna even a one-year deal.

It’s interesting to speculate on how the shape of the offseason (for the Braves, Cardinals, and the free agent market as a whole) would have been altered had Ozuna indeed taken the Cards’ qualifying offer. There was some thought last fall that he could be a candidate to take the $17.8MM deal, as two other notable would-be free agents — Jose Abreu (White Sox) and Jake Odorizzi (Twins) did with their respective teams. However, given that the Cardinals’ interest in retaining Ozuna seemed lukewarm at best, it could be that St. Louis might not have issued the QO whatsoever if they thought there was a truly serious chance that Ozuna would accept.

Details On Reds’ Pursuit Of Marcell Ozuna

By Jeff Todd | February 4, 2020 at 12:18pm CDT

It’s mostly of historical interest at this point, but the Reds’ pursuit of Marcell Ozuna was perhaps more spirited than was known at the time. The Cincinnati club offered him a three-year, $50MM contract, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

Though it is somewhat unusual for a player to turn down a similar annual salary over a longer term for one on a shorter term, that’s just what Ozuna did. He picked the Braves’ offer of one year and $18MM. Whether the Reds also would’ve considered a single-season arrangement isn’t clear.

For Ozuna, this was a calculated gamble — not unlike the one he took when he spurned the Marlins’ interest in an extension way back when. He’s still just 29 years of age and has shown rather an impressive offensive ceiling (143 wRC+ in 2017).

If Ozuna can turn in another campaign along those lines, he might well earn a much larger contract. Even if not, another solid effort could allow him to take down something close to or even in excess of what the Reds would’ve paid him. At the same time, there’s always risk — especially for a corner outfielder who has endured some shoulder problems and sagging numbers of late.

This bit of information is obviously also interesting because of its impact on the rest of the market. The Reds went on to strike a multi-year pact with Nick Castellanos, promising him $64MM over four seasons in a deal that he can opt out of after either of the first two campaigns.

It’s still a bit unclear how the market interplay between these players unfolded, but it was obviously a major factor. Notably, the Castellanos deal is far more desirable from the player’s perspective than that obtained by Ozuna from the Braves. After all, the former’s contract conveys both the upside of a possible return to the open market as well as long-term security. Unless Ozuna had another reason to prefer Atlanta, it stands to reason that his offer from the Reds did not include such generous opt-out opportunities.

Signing Ozuna cost a draft pick, it’s worth noting, since he turned down a qualifying offer from the Cardinals. He’s also no longer eligible to receive one in the future. The Reds might’ve been more comfortable with the structure they gave Castellanos since he did not cost a pick up front and remains eligible to receive a QO if he opts out (thus carrying the possibility of eventual draft compensation to the team).

Teams That Gained Or Lost Draft Picks Via Qualifying Offer Free Agents

By Mark Polishuk | January 26, 2020 at 7:49am CDT

Now that Marcell Ozuna has signed, all 10 of the players who were issued a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer in November have settled on teams for the 2020 season. Of that group, two (Jose Abreu of the White Sox and Jake Odorizzi of the Twins) accepted their qualifying offers and returned to their clubs — Abreu, in fact, topped off his QO by signing a contract extension that will run through the 2022 season. Stephen Strasburg also isn’t changing uniforms, as the longtime Nationals ace rejected the club’s qualifying offer but eventually re-signed with Washington on a seven-year, $245MM deal.

That leaves us with seven QO players who will be playing on new teams in 2020, and as such, the draft compensation attached to those seven players has also now been allotted. Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the same compensation was handed out to all six teams who lost those players, as the entire sextet fell under the same financial criteria. The Mets, Cardinals, Braves, Giants, Nationals, and Astros all aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, nor did they exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, so all six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.

Here is how the so-called “Compensation Round” breaks down. The order of the picks is determined by worst record-to-best record from the 2019 season.

68. Giants (for Madison Bumgarner)
69. Giants (for Will Smith)
70. Mets (for Zack Wheeler)
71. Cardinals (for Marcell Ozuna)
72. Nationals (for Anthony Rendon)
73. Braves (for Josh Donaldson)
74. Astros (for Gerrit Cole)

San Francisco now possesses five of the first 87 picks in next June’s draft. With the Giants still in the NL wild card race last summer, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opted to hang onto Bumgarner and Smith rather than trade either player, a decision that led to some criticism since San Francisco was widely considered to be closer to rebuilding than truly contending. The critics’ judgement grew even harsher after the Giants went 22-32 record in August and September and fell well short of the postseason. Still, given that teams were reluctant to part with top-flight young talent for even controllable players (let alone rentals like Bumgarner and Smith) at the trade deadline, Zaidi clearly felt that the two picks he could recoup from the qualifying offer process were more valuable than anything offered for the two Giants pitchers last July.

It’s worth noting that the 74th overall pick will be Houston’s first selection of the 2020 draft, after the Astros lost both their first- and second-highest selections in both 2020 and 2021 as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal. Since the Red Sox are also under league investigation for their own alleged use of electronics to steal opponents’ signs in 2018, Boston could also potentially lose at least one pick in this year’s draft, so we can’t yet say that the 2020 draft order is finalized. Of course, the order could be further muddled if more trades occur involving picks from the two Competitive Balance Draft rounds, which are the only types of draft picks that can be traded. We’ve already seen the Rays and Cardinals swap their picks in Rounds A and B as part of the multi-player trade that sent Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay earlier this month.

Let’s now look at the six teams who signed the seven QO-rejecting free agents, and see what those clubs had to give up in order to make the signings.

Yankees, for signing Gerrit Cole: Since New York exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2019, they gave up their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2020 draft (a.k.a. their second- and fifth-highest selections). The Yankees also gave up $1MM in funds from their international signing bonus pool.

Diamondbacks, for signing Madison Bumgarner: As a team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and was a revenue-sharing recipient, the D’Backs had to give up their third-highest draft choice to sign Bumgarner. This ended up being Arizona’s second-round selection — the team’s first two picks are their first-rounder (18th overall) and their pick in Competitive Balance Round A (33rd overall).

Twins, for signing Josh Donaldson: Minnesota also received revenue-sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, so signing Donaldson put the Twins in position to give up their third-highest draft selection. However, the Twins are actually giving up their fourth-highest pick in the 2020 draft, which is their third-round selection. The Twins’ actual third selection is their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, but those picks aren’t eligible to be forfeited as compensation for QO free agent signings.

Angels, for signing Anthony Rendon: Since the Halos didn’t receive revenue-sharing funds and also didn’t pay any luxury tax money, they had to give up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K in international bonus funds to sign Rendon.

Phillies, for signing Zack Wheeler: The Phillies surrendered their second-highest selection (their second-round pick) and $500K of their international bonus pool, since they were another team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax line and didn’t receive revenue-sharing money.

Braves, for signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna: The dual signings put Atlanta in line for a dual penalty. The Braves didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and also didn’t receive revenue-sharing money, so they gave up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K of international bonus money for Smith. In landing Ozuna, the Braves then had to also forfeit their third-round pick (their third-highest selection) and another $500K from their international bonus pool.

Losing two draft picks and $1MM in international pool money isn’t nothing, though these particular sanctions had less impact on the Braves than on other teams, which undoubtedly influenced their decisions. First of all, the compensatory pick Atlanta received for Donaldson is higher in the draft order than their third-round pick, so the net loss is only a second-round pick. Secondly, the Braves’ movement in the international market is still limited by the punishment handed out by Major League Baseball in November 2017 for Atlanta’s past international signing violations. Part of that punishment included the Braves’ pool for the 2020-21 international market being reduced by 50 percent — being so handcuffed in the international market anyway, the Braves probably felt $1MM in pool money was no great loss.

NL Notes: Braves, Acuna, Brewers, Urias, Nationals, Zimmerman, Payroll

By TC Zencka | January 25, 2020 at 10:47am CDT

Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker has no intention of moving Ronald Acuna Jr. to the cleanup spot, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter). Even before the Marcell Ozuna signing, Snitker wasn’t entertaining removing Acuna from leadoff, where he excelled last season after a short stint in the middle of the order. Acuna has 15 leadoff home runs across his two seasons with the Braves and an overall batting line of .297/.380/.565 out of the leadoff spot. Acuna hardly struggled elsewhere in the lineup, but he’s certainly a luxury at the top of the order for the two-time defending NL East champs. With Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna presumably behind him in the order, there’s no particular need to mess with success. Let’s check in elsewhere in the National League…

Milwaukee Brewers infielder Luis Urias is returning stateside to have his left wrist examined, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter links). Urias cut his winter ball season short upon experiencing soreness. The Brewers hope to have answers by the middle of next week, and surgery is a possibility. Though mention of surgery sets off alarm bells, the Brewers expect this to be a minor issue. Urias, of course, is looking to establish himself as a full-time big-leaguer in his first season with the Brewers. He put up 1.0 bWAR, but just 0.1 fWAR across 71 games of action as a rookie with the Padres in 2019.
Now that franchise cornerstone Ryan Zimmerman is back on an exceedingly affordable $2MM deal, the Nationals have financial flexibility under the tax, writes MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Roster resource puts the Nats’ tax payroll at about $204MM, which doesn’t provide a ton of wiggle room under the $208MM tax line. Zuckerman figures it closer to $194MM, which is the number given by Cot’s Contracts, roughly $14MM under the tax line. Either way, the Nats have been a willing tax payer in the past, and after ducking under the line in 2019, they’re safe to exceed it again without extra penalty. Given the level of free agent available, however, the Nats are probable to enter the season – like their divisional mates in New York and Philadelphia – near the line with the ability to exceed it with midseason additions should they be close enough to push for the playoffs.

Anthopoulos On Donaldson, Ozuna, Rotation, Payroll

By Connor Byrne | January 24, 2020 at 1:31am CDT

The Braves took one of the last high-end free agents off the board when they inked Marcell Ozuna to a one-year, $18MM contract Tuesday, but the signing looks like a mere consolation prize for the team. After all, the Braves lost a better free agent the previous week when they saw third baseman Josh Donaldson agree to a four-year, $92MM pact with the Twins. The Braves prioritized re-signing Donaldson this offseason, general manager Alex Anthopoulos told Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Jeff Schultz of The Athletic in separate interviews, but they were simply unwilling to meet the Twins’ bid for the 34-year-old.

“I don’t blame him for a minute,” Anthopoulos said of Donaldson’s choice. “It’s a fantastic contract for him. He earned it. Would’ve loved to have him stay a Brave, but we ultimately had to make a decision. We felt like it was best for our club to go to a number and not go beyond that to get it done.”

In the end, the number Donaldson received “went north of where we thought it would be at the start of the offseason,” according to Anthopoulos, who added that “Josh gave us every opportunity to sign him back and every opportunity to get the deal done.” And Donaldson didn’t leave because of any payroll constraints hampering the Braves, per Anthopoulos, who noted the team “could’ve” matched the Twins’ offer. However, the executive just wasn’t comfortable doing so.

So now what for the Braves? Well, barring an unexpected trade for the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado or the Cubs’ Kris Bryant, it appears they’ll turn to Johan Camargo and Austin Riley – two third basemen who struggled last season – to pick up the slack at the hot corner. When they were trying to re-sign Donaldson, they were “also weighing the possibility that we would be blocking Riley or blocking Camargo from playing third base. That presents its own challenges,” Anthopoulos stated.

It’s anyone’s guess what the Braves will get from Camargo and Riley in 2020, but the addition of Ozuna should help cover for the loss of Donaldson’s offense to some extent. Anthopoulos acknowledged the Braves “likely” wouldn’t have signed Ozuna had they convinced Donaldson to come back, but Ozuna is nonetheless someone who excites the club. They believe Ozuna has untapped potential.

“Because of his stat line last year, we felt he was an undervalued player. We felt he was better than his .240 average and 29 home runs,” Anthopoulos said of Ozuna, who – for what it’s worth – was a Statcast darling in 2019. The 29-year-old ranked in the majors’ upper echelon in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage and expected weighted on-base average, to name a few key metrics.

Does the Ozuna acquisition mean the Braves will part with one of their outfielders (say, Ender Inciarte)? “I don’t think so,” Anthopoulos observed, noting there’s more room for extra options now that the league’s moving from a 25-man to a 26-man roster, and that “too many good players” is a high-class problem.

Elsewhere on their roster, the Braves made a noteworthy move earlier this offseason when they picked up left-hander Cole Hamels on a one-year, $18MM guarantee of his own. Now, although Anthopoulos opined that a team’s “never comfortable” with its rotation, he’s hopeful that “we can have one of our young guys or two take a step, like last year with (Max) Fried and (Mike) Soroka.”

Hamels, Fried, Soroka and Mike Foltynewicz look like shoo-ins to make up four-fifths of the Braves’ rotation at the start of the season, but the team did try to add another splashy name to the group earlier in the winter.

“We talked to some of the starters who got bigger, longer deals, whether that was (Hyun-Jin) Ryu, (Zack) Wheeler, Bumgarner,” Anthopoulos revealed. “We ultimately chose not to go to the same contract, whether it was length or total value.”

If the Braves’ rotation or some other part of their roster fails during the first few months of the season, perhaps the two-time defending NL East champions will find reinforcements leading up to the summer trade deadline. The Braves are already projected for a franchise-record Opening-Day payroll of $158MM – almost $45MM more than 2019’s season-starting outlay – but there may be more in the coffers. Anthopoulos said he “was given a quick yes” when he asked CEO Terry McGuirk for a spending increase during the prior two summers.

Marcell Ozuna Reportedly Turned Down Multi-Year Offers

By Jeff Todd | January 23, 2020 at 8:33am CDT

Before deciding to take a one-year deal with the Braves, outfielder Marcell Ozuna contemplated much lengthier arrangements with other teams, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links).

On the one hand, this is mostly academic. Ozuna is headed to Atlanta and the prior offers are off the table. On the other, there are actually some interesting forward-looking elements to this report.

First and foremost, it’s notable that Ozuna drew not only three-year but four-year offers, per Heyman. The offered money evidently wasn’t enough to sway the veteran from the $18MM he got for one year with the Braves, but it’s still an indication that the market has some appetite for a longer pact on this sort of player.

That’s probably good news for Nicholas Castellanos and Yasiel Puig. We just ran a poll regarding the former, with nearly four in ten respondents predicting an Ozuna-esque signing and most of the remainder guessing he’d secure much less than had been anticipated in a multi-year pact. Expectations on Castellanos were always tough to set and have continued to waver. But it’s at least somewhat easier to fathom a bigger, lengthier contract given this recent report.

It’s also a generally promising sign for Ozuna himself, who is now slated to return to free agency at the end of the upcoming season. He only just reached his 29th birthday and can certainly anticipate long-term interest the next time around — if he makes good on the prove-it contract he just inked.

Most interesting of all, perhaps, is the involvement of the Reds in the bidding. Long rumored to be kicking around the market for these bat-first corner outfielders, the club’s recent signing of Shogo Akiyama further stuffed its outfield mix and made a further addition seem unlikely. But Heyman says that the Cincinnati outfit “made a spirited try” to land Ozuna with a multi-year deal.

If indeed the Reds had serious interest in Ozuna, it adds to the plausibility of Heyman’s prior reporting on the team’s pursuit of Castellanos. There are abundant options on hand, but perhaps the club simply isn’t satisfied — or has its eyes on adding another piece to help facilitate a trade involving one or more of its existing outfielders. The theoretical possibilities are endless, adding to the intrigue of the remaining corner outfield market.

NL Central Notes: Castellanos, Ozuna, Pirates

By Steve Adams | January 22, 2020 at 10:17pm CDT

The Reds “remain a player” for free-agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The extent to which the Reds are interested is far from clear, though. Cincinnati has already signed Shogo Akiyama to a three-year deal and has Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino atop an already deep list of incumbent outfield options. And, unlike the Rangers, who are also said to have interest in Castellanos, there’s no option of plugging him in at first base, where Joey Votto is entrenched in Cincinnati.

It’s difficult to envision much of a fit in Cincinnati unless Castellanos winds up taking a short-term deal along the lines of the one Marcell Ozuna signed in Atlanta just yesterday. Even if such an opportunity were to materialize for the Reds, they’d likely still need to move an outfielder to alleviate the logjam that’d come with signing Castellanos. Corner outfielders have had a hard time cashing in this winter, and the market for Castellanos looks rather limited at this point. If he and agent Scott Boras are willing to wait things out, it’s possible that an injury early in camp or a Cubs trade that sheds some cash will change his market’s landscape. At present, however, demand doesn’t exactly appear frenzied.

Braves Sign Marcell Ozuna

By Steve Adams | January 21, 2020 at 6:06pm CDT

6:06pm: The Braves have announced the deal and confirmed the terms of the agreement.

6:01pm: The Braves have agreed to a one-year deal with free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN.com. The MDR Sports Management client will receive an $18MM salary that slightly exceeds the $17.8MM qualifying offer from the Cardinals that he rejected back in November.

The market for Ozuna has been tepid, with the Cardinals and Rangers reported as the primary suitors for much of the winter. That likely changed when Atlanta missed out on third baseman Josh Donaldson, who agreed to a four-year deal with the Twins last week. Adding Ozuna to the lineup won’t account for the loss of Donaldson’s production, but it nonetheless bolsters a lineup that already won the division in 2018 and 2019.

Ozuna will presumably join Ender Inciarte (center) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (right) in comprising the Braves’ regular outfield trio. Inciarte and fellow outfielders Nick Markakis and Adam Duvall will likely lose some at-bats as a result of the signing, which gives the Braves a deep and talented mix from which to draw.

When the Cardinals originally acquired Ozuna from the Marlins in the 2017-18 offseason, it looked as though the club had acquired one of the game’s burgeoning top power threats. Ozuna swatted 37 home runs in ’17 and turned in a scintillating .312/.376/.548 line through 159 games. But shoulder problems slowed him over his two seasons in St. Louis — particularly in 2018. Ozuna did turn in a .262/.327/.451 batting line with 52 home runs, 39 doubles, three triples and 15 steals in 1177 trips to the plate (106 OPS+, 108 wRC+), but he wasn’t the heart-of-the-order force the Cardinals had presumably hoped to acquire.

That 2018-19 production aligns with the output that Ozuna showed in 2014-16 — raising the question of whether the 2017 season is repeatable or simply an outlier. Notably, there are some encouraging factors that suggest Ozuna could have more in the tank than he showed during his time with the Cardinals. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were both elite, per Statcast, as were his expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA. Ozuna also posted a career-high 11.3 walk rate that easily topped his previous career-best of 9.4 percent and trounced the 6.9 percent career mark he carried into 2019.

Defensively, Ozuna comes with plenty of uncertainty. He won a Gold Glove in 2017 with the Marlins, but his ongoing shoulder troubles completely sapped his throwing ability in 2018. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating both still graded him as an above-average fielder thanks to his range, although Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric pegged him at -9 over the duration of his two-year stint in St. Louis. At the very least, he should’t be a major liability for the Braves, and there’s the potential that he’ll actually deliver plus glovework if he’s at full strength.

The other ripple effect for the Braves is that bringing Ozuna into the fold cements Austin Riley’s return to the infield mix. He and Johan Camargo are now the likeliest options for the Braves at third base, but it’s at least plausible that the club could look into options on the trade market. However, Ozuna’s contract pushes the Braves up to a franchise-record $158MM projected cash payroll, and perhaps even more surprisingly, they’re at $186MM in payroll as calculated for luxury tax purposes, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. A Nolan Arenado acquisition has long appeared unlikely but looks even less plausible now, as acquiring him would push the Braves over the luxury threshold for the first time in franchise history. Even a deal to bring Kris Bryant over from the Cubs would leave Atlanta just a couple million shy of the $208MM barrier.

While the deal is a sensible one for the Braves, it’s hard to view it as anything other than a disappointing outcome for Ozuna. He’ll take home the largest salary of his career and slightly beat the qualifying offer value, but this isn’t the multi-year deal that most envisioned for the 29-year-old at the outset of free agency. We at MLBTR expected that he could struggle to secure the type of four- or five-year pact that some had forecast, but our prediction of a three-year, $45MM deal still proved too aggressive.

On the plus side for Ozuna, he’ll pocket that hefty one-year salary and reenter the free-agent market next winter at a relatively youthful 30 years of age. There’ll be even greater competition on the outfield market next time around, when Mookie Betts and George Springer are among the top-ranked free agents on the market, but Ozuna won’t have a qualifying offer hanging over his head. Additionally, it’s possible that some big-spending clubs who are in the midst of quiet offseasons — e.g. Cubs, Red Sox, Giants — will be more apt to engage in the open market.

As for the Cardinals, the fact that Ozuna settled on a one-year deal backs up recent reporting from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch indicating Ozuna wasn’t a priority for the team. Other reports of the St. Louis organization’s interest in keeping Ozuna in the fold appear to have been overstated, and the outfielder’s ultimate price point only reinforces recent comments from Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. which suggested that another splash might not be in the forecast.

It’s hard not to point out that Ozuna’s 2020 salary will line up almost perfectly with the $18.5MM owed to Matt Carpenter, who signed a two-year extension last spring that now looks to be regrettable for the Cardinals. Keeping Ozuna or acquiring a third baseman might’ve been more of a priority had Carpenter hit free agency this winter, as he would’ve without signing that new contract. Instead, the organization is left hoping for a rebound from the 34-year-old Carpenter, who slashed .226/.334/.392 in 2019.

The Cardinals won’t be left entirely empty-handed with Ozuna out the door, though. They’ll get a compensatory draft pick following Competitive Balance Round B in this summer’s draft — a selection that should fall in the upper-70s. The Braves, meanwhile, will surrender their third-best pick in next year’s draft in order to sign Ozuna, although they’re also set to acquire a compensatory pick for the loss of Donaldson, which helps to mitigate the damage.

With Ozuna off the market, Nicholas Castellanos is the clear-cut top free agent remaining. He and fellow free-agent Yasiel Puig represent the top two options on the market for clubs still seeking corner outfield upgrades. Ozuna’s subtraction from the pool of available talent could help the market for one or both outfielders move closer to a resolution.

Bill DeWitt Jr. On Cardinals’ Payroll

By Connor Byrne | January 20, 2020 at 11:05pm CDT

Recent reports have connected the Cardinals to a couple high-profile names – their top free agent, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, as well as Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado – but pump the brakes if you expect a major acquisition prior to the season. Owner Bill DeWitt Jr. said Monday that he doesn’t think there’s a “significant” pickup in the offing, adding that it wouldn’t fit the Cardinals’ “model,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.

Between Ozuna and Arenado, the latter would unquestionably be the more impactful get, and he made it clear Monday he’s displeased with the Rockies. However, according to DeWitt, the Cardinals are “not actively” looking to make a trade. Arenado’s enormous contract (seven years, $234MM, including $35MM in 2020) may be part of the reason why.

The Cardinals, who began last year’s NL Central-winning campaign with a franchise-record Opening-Day payroll of just over $162MM, already have $168MM-plus in commitments heading into this season, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. If we’re to take DeWitt at his word, that’s about all they want to spend. The team’s “pushing the envelope” by even being in the $170MM range, per DeWitt, who did note the Cards would consider bumping that total “up a little bit.” But there’s nothing “little” about Arenado’s salary, and DeWitt revealed that, at this point, they “can’t be in that kind of ($35 million) range” on an addition(s) to their roster.

Ozuna’s next deal will be worth far less than Arenado’s, of course, but even he could prove too rich for the Cardinals’ blood. Regardless, they’re not pursuing Ozuna with much gusto, as Goold writes they aren’t “nearly as aggressive as other teams” on trying to reel in the qualifying offer recipient. Therefore, it appears St. Louis will enter the season with a mix of several other in-house options as their outfield choices.

Assuming the Cardinals don’t come away with Ozuna, Arenado or any other big names, this will go down as a quiet winter for the club. So far, Korean left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim – whom they signed to a modest guarantee worth $8MM over two years – has been the Cardinals’ most noteworthy outside acquisition. Aside from winning the derby for Kim, they’ve re-signed righty Adam Wainwright and catcher Matt Wieters for a combined $7MM.

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