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Matt Shaw Makes Cubs’ Tokyo Travel Roster

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Cubs manager Craig Counsell informed reporters, including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, that infielder Matt Shaw will be on the club’s travel roster for next week’s Tokyo Series. That doesn’t necessarily mean that he will be making his major league debut in Japan but it means the possibility remains on the table. The club won’t make its final roster decisions until closer to the games, which take place on March 18th and 19th.

Throughout the winter, it has seemed like a distinct possibility for the 23-year-old Shaw to nab the Cubs’ third base job, even though he’s not on the 40-man roster and has no major league experience. He was just drafted in the summer of 2023 but has hit .303/.384/.522 in his 693 minor league plate appearances thus far. He spent most of last year in Double-A but finished his season with 35 Triple-A contests, hitting .298/.395/.534 in those.

The Cubs opened up a path to playing time for him by trading Isaac Paredes to the Astros in the Kyle Tucker deal, leaving the club without an obvious solution at the hot corner. Shaw has played the three infield positions to the left of first base but more at third than second or short.

More recently, there’s been an argument for pumping the brakes a bit. Shaw was slowed at the start of camp by an oblique issue and has been a bit behind schedule. He is in the lineup for today’s Cactus League game, which will be just his sixth spring contest.

The Cubs could have opted to leave Shaw behind for more reps, as opposed to undergoing the travel and time zone adjustments necessary to participate in the Tokyo Series. That’s the plan for second baseman Nico Hoerner, who is working his way back from flexor tendon surgery. Rather than travel all the way to Tokyo for a couple of exhibition games and the two games against the Dodgers, he plans to stay in camp and get regular reps, with his focus on being ready for domestic Opening Day.

The Cubs could have taken a similar tack with Shaw but it appears they will chart a different course. Shaw seems to be a bit ahead of Hoerner in terms of game readiness. Hoerner has been doing some batting practice and other such activities but hasn’t officially taken part in a game yet.

Travelling with the club to Tokyo doesn’t guarantee that Shaw will be added to the 40-man or active roster, as the Cubs and Dodgers will be travelling with 31 players each. Only 26 of those will be on the active roster, but it allows each club to have a bit of insurance in case an injury pops up while overseas. The club has Jon Berti, Justin Turner, Gage Workman and Vidal Bruján on the roster, with some combination of those guys capable of covering second and third for a couple of games without Hoerner or Shaw.

Still, the Cubs wouldn’t drag Shaw to Tokyo if there wasn’t a real chance of him getting to play. If he is to be added, the club would need to make space on the 40-man. If Shaw is added and spends enough time in the majors to earn a full service year in 2025, the Cubs would be in position to potentially earn an extra draft pick. Shaw is a consensus top 100 prospect and would therefore be eligible for the prospect promotion incentive if he is able to earn that full service year. He would then net the Cubs an extra pick if he wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP voting before qualifying for arbitration.

Cubs Notes: Infield, Pressly, Little

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The Cubs’ infield alignment figures to be in flux throughout both the Tokyo Series and perhaps even into the early days of the season stateside. As noted by ESPN’s Jesse Rogers earlier this week, second baseman Nico Hoerner will not be participating in the Tokyo Series with the Cubs as he recovers from offseason flexor tendon surgery. Instead, Hoerner will stay behind in Arizona in hopes of being ready for the start of the stateside regular season on March 27, which Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times notes the infielder currently appears to be “on track” for.

That’s fairly good news overall, as Hoerner entered camp with an unknown timeline for return from surgery and it wouldn’t have necessarily been a shock to see him miss the first few weeks of the regular season. In that context, missing just the first two games of the year would be a notable win. What complicates matters further, however, is the questions surrounding top prospect Matt Shaw. The club’s presumptive starting third baseman, Shaw has been slowed by an oblique issue this spring and has yet to get into a game.

Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network relayed comments from manager Craig Counsell earlier this week on Shaw’s status. Counsell noted that the Cubs “aren’t ruling [Shaw] out for anything,” suggesting he could be in play for the Tokyo Series. With that being said, however, Shaw has not yet made his Spring Training debut despite Counsell referring to Shaw as “not too far” from getting into games last week.

While Hoerner is unavailable, utility man Jon Berti figures to slide into the opening at second base. If Shaw is also unavailable for the Tokyo Series, however, things could get a bit more complicated. The final bench spot for the club’s ultimately 26-man roster remains up for grabs, with Rule 5 pick Gage Workman, trade acquisition Vidal Brujan, and non-roster invitee Nicky Lopez all in the conversation to join Berti, Carson Kelly, and Justin Turner on the club’s bench.

Any of them could be in the conversation to cover for Shaw in the event that both Shaw and Hoerner are unavailable for the start of the season, although it seems as though Turner could be an option as well. The 40-year-old hasn’t played third base on a regular basis since 2022, but the veteran told reporters (including those at Marquee Sports Network) that he’s been taking “a lot of” reps at the hot corner this spring to stretch out his arm in order to be ready to fill in at the position if necessary.

Moving on to the bullpen, veteran right-hander Ryan Pressly was acquired from the Astros this winter to help bolster the club’s bullpen mix. Reporting at the time of the trade suggested that Pressly was assured that he would be the club’s top candidate for saves this season prior to waiving his no-trade clause to join the club. That could certainly be the case, and Lee writes that Pressly remains a favorite for the closer job, though it’s worth noting she also acknowledges young right-hander Porter Hodge as another potential favorite for save opportunities. Hodge dazzled in his rookie season last year, posting a sterling 1.88 ERA with a 2.75 FIP in 43 innings of work while picking up nine saves along the way.

Given that framing of Pressly and Hodge as both being potential favorites for the closer job, it’s possible that the club could utilize both hurlers in the ninth inning depending on matchups. For his part, Pressly expressed a preference for pitching in the ninth inning but made clear that he doesn’t see the role as assured.

‘‘I’ve done every role under the sun in the bullpen, but I really felt like I got my stride when I was in that ninth-inning role,’’ Pressly said, as relayed by Lee. ‘‘And I’m happy for the opportunity to be back in it. And now it’s just a matter of seeing what I can do with it.’’

Elsewhere in the bullpen, Lee reports that southpaw Luke Little threw live batting practice for the first time of the spring yesterday. Little has been slowed throughout camp due to what pitching coach Tommy Hottovy described to Lee as “typical offseason issues” that impacted the southpaw’s buildup this winter unrelated to the lat strain that ended his 2024 season. It’s unclear whether Little will be ready for domestic Opening Day or not, though as a reliever with options remaining in a crowded bullpen the southpaw may wind up starting the season at Triple-A Iowa even if he’s healthy.

Cubs Notes: Caissie, Assad, Shaw

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Cubs outfielder Owen Caissie has been shut down, per manager Craig Counsell, as relayed by Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. The outfield prospect is battling left groin tightness. Lee mentions that Caissie underwent offseason core muscle surgery, though it’s unclear if his current issue is related to that procedure.

Caissie, 22, is on the 40-man roster but was unlikely to earn an Opening Day roster spot. That’s more to do with the overall roster picture than anything about Caissie in a vacuum. He’s a top 100 prospect who hit .278/.375/.472 for a 121 wRC+ in 127 Triple-A games last year. He was added to the 40-man in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

The Cubs’ big league outfield is slated to be crowded, with Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker in three spots. Seiya Suzuki will likely be in the designated hitter spot with regularity but could tag in for those others on occasion. Alexander Canario was designated for assignment earlier today but Jon Berti and Vidal Bruján are likely to be on the bench in utility roles.

Tucker is slated for free agency after this season and both Happ and Suzuki will hit the open market the following winter. That should open more long-term playing time but Caissie and fellow outfield prospect Kevin Alcántara appear slated for more Triple-A work in 2025, at least to start the year. Alcántara has just one option year remaining, perhaps giving him a slight edge in terms of earning a major league chance if an injury opens up some big league playing time. For as long as Caissie is shut down, the Cubs will have a bit less outfield depth but shouldn’t be in trouble unless a few more injuries pop up in the outfield mix.

Turning to the pitching staff, it was revealed last week that right-hander Javier Assad was out with some oblique soreness. That was later diagnosed as a mild strain, per Lee last week. Counsell relayed today that Assad has resumed playing catch.

That hopefully indicates that Assad is more or less on schedule, as he projects to be in the Opening Day rotation as long as he avoids the injured list. He will slot in at the back of a starting mix that includes Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon. If Assad were out of action, then perhaps swingman Colin Rea would step up. But that may not be necessary, allowing Rea to serve as a long reliever out of the bullpen. Assad has a 3.40 earned run average in 294 innings for the Cubs over the past three years, mostly as a starter.

On the infield, Counsell says Matt Shaw has been hitting in the cage and throwing. Like Assad, he had been slowed by an oblique issue but it appears both are making progress. Assuming Shaw stays healthy for the next few weeks, he’s the favorite to earn the third base job out of camp. However, the Cubs have been clear that he will have to earn the job and it won’t just be handed to him.

He will therefore have to be healthy enough to get on the field in the next few weeks and show the Cubs he’s worthy of the gig. The timeline is a little tighter than some other teams, as the Dodgers and Cubs are heading to Japan soon for the Tokyo Series. Those two clubs will be playing exhibition games against Japanese clubs on March 15th and 16th, before playing regular season contests against each other on March 18th and 19th.

Shaw slashed .284/.379/.488 for a wRC+ of 146 between Double-A and Triple-A last year. If he doesn’t secure the job out of camp, then some combination of Berti, Bruján, Justin Turner and Rule 5 pick Gage Workman would likely be the fallback options. Nicky Lopez and Dixon Machado are non-roster invitees with some big league experience in camp.

Jed Hoyer, Craig Counsell Discuss Cubs’ Third Base Plans

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Pitchers and catchers reported to camp for the Cubs today, and as part of the start of camp president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and manager Craig Counsell both spoke with the media about a number of topics. Third base was a particular focus of the media session after Chicago dealt incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker trade back in December. Notably, the Cubs have reportedly remained on the periphery of the market for longtime Astros third baseman Alex Bregman this winter as he’s lingered in free agency. While it does seem as though Chicago has interest in Bregman’s services, Hoyer made clear the club is currently focused on the players they already have internally in comments relayed by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

“Unclear,” Hoyer said when asked if another major move was coming before Opening Day. “I think you always look for opportunity, but right now we’re going to focus on the guys we have in camp. That’s the plan.”

Nightengale reports that the Red Sox, Tigers, and Astros have all made offers of at least four years to Bregman at this point, and that’s largely consistent with previous reporting that has suggested Bregman has been presented with five- and six-year offers throughout the winter. As for the Cubs, Nightengale writes that there’s been “no indication” that the Cubs would be willing to offer more than a three-year deal, but added that they could be willing to offer Bregman the highest average annual value of any of his suitors should he settle for a short-term deal.

It’s a model that the club followed to re-sign Cody Bellinger last winter when they landed him on a three-year, $80MM pact in late February, and other high-profile free agents like Pete Alonso and Jack Flaherty have had to settle for similarly short-term offers previously this winter. Whether Bregman’s market will make it necessary for him to follow that same path remains to be seen, however, and it’s easy to imagine the Cubs simply going with their internal options at the position rather than committing to a lengthy contract with Bregman.

Of those internal options, the most exciting one for Cubs fans is surely top prospect Matt Shaw. The club’s 2023 first-round pick has done nothing but hit as a professional, with a .303/.384/.522 slash line across four levels of the minors to this point in his young career. That includes a fabulous 35-game stint at Triple-A late last year, where he hit .298/.395/.534 with a strikeout rate of just 19.7% in 152 trips to the plate. Shaw’s ascent has put him firmly on the big league radar headed into the 2025 season, and it seems as though (barring a surprise acquisition like Bregman) the 23-year-old will get every opportunity to open camp with the club this spring.

With that being said, Hoyer made clear (as relayed by ESPN’s Jesse Rogers) that Shaw will have to earn the position this spring and won’t just be handed the position. While Hoyer emphasized that they don’t plan to “anoint” the rookie, it’s worth pointing out that there isn’t a clear veteran option for the hot corner should they decide to pivot away from Shaw at this point. Vidal Brujan was acquired from the Marlins earlier this winter but has less than 100 innings of third base experience in the majors and is a career .189/.261/.270 hitter. Rule 5 pick Gage Workman is viewed as a plus defender at third base and hit well for the Tigers’ Double-A affiliate in Erie last year, but he hasn’t even played at the Triple-A level before making him arguably less experienced than Shaw himself.

Perhaps veteran utility man Jon Berti is the best internal third base candidate besides Shaw, though the 35-year-old is coming off a season where he was limited to just 25 games due to injuries and would be risky to rely on in an everyday role. He’s also reportedly under consideration to back up Michael Busch at first base, suggesting his best role may be one where his versatility is leveraged to allow him to fill in at multiple positions off the bench. Further complicating the Cubs’ infield mix is the uncertain timeline of second baseman Nico Hoerner. The Cubs revealed in late October that Hoerner had undergone flexor tendon surgery without providing a timeline for his return, and the latest update on his recovery process was that he had yet to begin throwing or hitting post-surgery and that his availability for the start of the season was in question.

Given all of that uncertainty around the infield, another infielder would certainly make sense for Chicago even if they aren’t willing to extend themselves to land Bregman. Free agent infield help is scarce at this point in the offseason, however. Aside from Bregman, the best third base options available are bench pieces like Paul DeJong and Luis Urias. It’s possible a trade could be had, with Brett Baty of the Mets, Oswaldo Cabrera of the Yankees, and Willi Castro of the Twins among speculative trade candidates who could still be available at this point in the winter, but the Cubs haven’t been tied to any of those names to this point.

Until and unless the Cubs add another infielder to give Shaw more robust competition for the Opening Day third base job, it seems very likely he’ll be at the hot corner for the club when the season begins. That figures to be true even if Hoerner isn’t ready for Opening Day, as Counsell told reporters (including Jordan Bastian of MLB.com) that Shaw’s focus is on third base this spring when asked if Shaw could spend some time at second base this spring to make him an option at the keystone should Hoerner begin the season on the IL.

Jed Hoyer Discusses Kyle Tucker, Corner Infield Plans

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The Cubs pulled off a huge deal last week, acquiring outfielder Kyle Tucker from the Cubs in exchange for third baseman Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer spoke to members of the media today (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score and Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times), addressing Tucker and the club’s corner infield options.

While Tucker is a big upgrade for the 2025 team, he is set to be a free agent after that. That means he doesn’t currently provide the Cubs any value beyond the upcoming season, apart from the extra draft pick they would receive if he rejects a qualifying offer at season’s end and then signs elsewhere.

The Cubs could always change that future by signing Tucker to an extension, something that Hoyer touched upon a bit. “I don’t know what the future holds,” he said. “But obviously Chicago sells itself really well. And so, I’m excited to bring him in for this year, and we’ll see where it goes beyond that. But clearly this was the kind of player that we lacked.”

It’s fair to assume that the Cubs would love to have Tucker beyond just the one year. They clearly value the player highly, based on the strong package of talent they gave up just for that one season, plus the aforementioned QO compensation. Tucker himself also spoke today (per Levine) and said he’s open to having talks before he hits the open market.

While it’s nice that Tucker is open to having talks, agreeing on a price point might be a challenge. Tucker has been one of the better players in baseball in recent years and is slated to hit free agency ahead of his age-29 season. To get a really good player to sign an extension just before hitting free agency ahead of his 30th birthday isn’t cheap, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Some recent examples include $365MM for Mookie Betts, $341MM for Francisco Lindor and $313.5MM for Rafael Devers.

It’s a somewhat similar situation to the one that just played out between Juan Soto and the Yankees. He was acquired from the Padres with one year remaining before hitting free agency, said he was open to contract talks at any time, but ultimately became a free agent and signed a mega deal with the Mets.

With the Cubs, it’s arguably even less likely to get done. Tucker’s earning power isn’t as high as Soto’s but the Cubs have never given out deals even to that Betts/Lindor/Devers level. Jason Heyward’s $184MM deal is still the largest in franchise history, even though it’s almost a decade old at this point. Since Hoyer took over, the club’s largest deal has been $177MM for Dansby Swanson, the only time he’s gone higher than $85MM. Perhaps they are willing to break that pattern for Tucker, who they clearly like, but it would likely require them to effectively double the Heyward/Swanson deals.

Hoyer also addressed the third base situation at Wrigley, as trading Paredes created an opening there. It has been expected that the club would be willing to give prospect Matt Shaw to take that spot. Hoyer seems to be open to that coming to pass, saying that Shaw would get a “long look”, though he wouldn’t just call it a done deal. “He has to earn that job,” Hoyer said. “I’m not going to gift him that on a conference call in the middle of December.”

That’s a fair position to take. Though Shaw has performed very well in the minors, even the best prospects can struggle when first called up to the majors, so nothing can be taken for granted. Selected 13th overall last summer, Shaw has slashed .303/.384/.522 so far in 159 minor league games across different levels. That includes a line of .298/.395/.534 in 35 Triple-A games to finish his 2024 season, so there’s definitely an argument for him cracking the majors to start 2025.

But since there’s no guarantee he will hit the ground running, the Cubs will need to have backup plans. The Cubs had six players spend at least 85 innings at third this year, but Miles Mastrobuoni is the only one of the six left on the roster. As mentioned, Paredes was in the Tucker deal. The Cubs traded Christopher Morel to the Rays in order to acquire Paredes in the first place. Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom were non-tendered at season’s end. David Bote was outrighted off the roster in August.

Infielder Gage Workman was just grabbed from the Tigers in the Rule 5 draft, so he has a roster spot for now, but he doesn’t have any major league nor any Triple-A experience. Ben Cowles and Luis Vázquez are other multi-positional infielders currently on the 40-man. Perhaps the Cubs will look at adding to that group by signing a veteran utility man, whether that’s to a modest major league deal or a minor league pact.

One thing that is apparently not under consideration is moving Michael Busch across the diamond. The club had an outfield logjam but Cody Bellinger can play first, so it was theoretically possible for them to open that spot for Bellinger by moving Busch to the hot corner, a position where he has 99 1/3 innings of major league experience. But Busch got strong grades for his first base defense this year and Hoyer suggested their focus would be keeping him there. Bellinger was traded to the Yankees after Hoyer’s comments this afternoon.

Unrelated to Hoyer’s comments, there was another Cubs tidbit of note this week. Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic report that the club has considered the possibility of stretching out right-hander Nate Pearson as a starter.

There’s some merit to the plan but it may be difficult to pull off. Pearson was a starting pitching prospect of note with the Blue Jays before injuries pushed him into a relief role. As recently as July, he expressed an interest in returning to a rotation role, shortly before he was traded to the Cubs.

Bullpen-to-rotation conversions have been all the rage lately. Some recent success stories have included Michael King, Seth Lugo, Reynaldo López, Garrett Crochet and others. It doesn’t always work, with the A.J. Puk experiment one attempt that didn’t pan out, but clubs seem to be warm to the idea. The Mets have signed Clay Holmes with a plan of stretching him out next year and there have been some reports suggesting Jeff Hoffman might get a rotation gig next year as well.

With Pearson, it’s tough to see a path next year. The Cubs already have Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad in the rotation, with reported interest in Jesús Luzardo of the Marlins as well. They also have Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Cade Horton and other potential starters around, so all those guys might not leave a lot of room for Pearson to get big league starts. As such, Mooney and Sharma admit that Pearson is most likely to stick in a relief role next year.

Cubs Notes: Hoerner, Third Base, Bellinger, Steele

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The Cubs made a massive splash on the trade market yesterday when they landed star outfielder Kyle Tucker is a blockbuster deal with the Astros. The club surrendered a hefty package of All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, 2024 first-rounder Cam Smith, and right-handed youngster Hayden Wesneski in order to make the deal, however, and the loss of Paredes in particular may have changed some of the club’s offseason plans.

Second baseman Nico Hoerner has reportedly been available in trade talks this winter, with the Mariners in particular being said to have interest in the infielder. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, however, it’s possible that the club’s thinking involving Hoerner has changed in the aftermath of yesterday’s deal with the Astros. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs were motivated to trade from their infield mix in order to open up playing time for top prospect Matt Shaw, who hit a sensational .298/.395/.534 in a late-season cup of coffee at the Triple-A level and appears ready to make the jump to the major leagues.

Shaw was drafted as a shortstop, but is a bat-first prospect who has spent time at both second and third base in the minors since being selected with the 13th-overall pick in the 2023 draft. While Shaw has typically been considered a more natural fit at second than third due to questions about his arm strength, the youngster logged 580 1/3 innings at the hot corner in the minors this past year and seems to be a natural choice to replace Paredes in Chicago’s infield mix next year. That, according to Rosenthal, leaves the Cubs “likely” to keep Hoerner in the fold headed into next season.

It’s at least possible another addition changes those plans, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported earlier today that the club is in the market for third base help following yesterday’s deal. It’s unclear if such an addition would be a part-time player who could offer insurance in case Shaw proves to not be quite ready for the majors or if the Cubs are pursuing more of a regular option at the hot corner, but it would seem likely at this point that the Cubs may only seriously entertain a Hoerner trade going forward if they’re able to land a regular third baseman, thereby allowing them to replace Hoerner with Shaw at the keystone.

While Hoerner may be staying put in Chicago, the same cannot be said for Cody Bellinger. The 2019 NL MVP has been known to be on the trade block all winter due to the outfield logjam the Cubs experienced late in the 2024 season, when Bellinger was vying with Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Mike Tauchman, and top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong for regular playing time. That logjam already led the Cubs to non-tender Tauchman, and the introduction of Tucker as the surefire everyday starter in right field only further emphasized that Bellinger figures to play in another uniform next year.

The Yankees appear to be perhaps the most aggressive suitor for Bellinger this winter, though reports have previously indicated that the sides remain apart on how much of Bellinger’s contract the Cubs should retain. Peter Botte of the New York Post provided additional details about the situation yesterday, reporting that the sides are “more than $10MM” apart in their negotiations. That’s a hefty gap the sides will need to bridge in order to come together on a deal, as it represents more than a third of Bellinger’s $27.5MM salary for the 2025 season. Freeing up money in order to improve other areas of the roster seems to be one of the primary motivators for the Cubs in trading Bellinger. According to RosterResource, the club’s luxury tax payroll sits at just under $215MM after the Tucker deal, and clearing as much of Bellinger’s $26.67MM average annual value off the books as possible would greatly increase Chicago’s financial flexibility as they look into improving their rotation by dealing for a starter like Mariners righty Luis Castillo or Marlins southpaw Jesus Luzardo.

Speaking of the rotation, Patrick Mooney and Tim Britton of The Athletic recently took a look at the possibility of an extension between the Cubs and left-hander Justin Steele. The pair report that Steele and the Cubs have not engaged in extension talks to this point, though they note that the Cubs frequently use the start of Spring Training as an opportunity to explore extensions with players as they’ve done with Hoerner and Happ in the past before ultimately getting deals done closer to Opening Day.

The 29-year-old lefty is certainly an intriguing extension candidate. Steele is under team control for three more seasons and doesn’t sport high-end velocity or massive strikeout rates. With that said, his results have been undeniably excellent in three seasons since he joined the rotation on a full-time basis. In 427 innings of work across 78 starts over the past three years, Steele has posted a 3.10 ERA (134 ERA+) with a nearly matching 3.14 FIP. He generates grounders at a strong 48.5% clip and has limited walks to just a 5.7% rate over the past two seasons after struggling somewhat with his control in 2022. Among starters with at least 300 innings over the past two years, only Gerrit Cole has allowed a lower ERA than Steele’s 3.07, while his 3.11 FIP ranks third behind Sonny Gray and Logan Webb.

Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

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11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.

Cubs Considering Alternatives To Christopher Morel At Third Base

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As noted this morning by Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, the Cubs have “evaluated alternatives” to third baseman Christopher Morel this season, with one such alternative possibly being top prospect Matt Shaw. 

Morel has started 50 of the team’s 66 games this year at third base, taking over from the group that shared the position down the stretch last season: Nick Madrigal, Jeimer Candelario (now with the Reds), Miles Mastrobuoni, and Patrick Wisdom. Madrigal started 11 games at third this year (and filled in as a defensive replacement on 25 other occasions), but he was optioned to Triple-A earlier this month and is currently on the minor league injured list. Wisdom, meanwhile, has played a utility role off the bench, taking reps at first base, third base, right field, and DH. Mastrobuoni also played a utility role before he was optioned in mid-May.

Prior to this season, Morel had only played 180 2/3 MLB innings at the hot corner, having spent more time in his first two seasons at second base and in the outfield. However, he played 156 games at third base in his minor league career – more than any other position – and after his strong performance at the plate last year (26 home runs and an .821 OPS in 107 games) the Cubs wanted to find him a position to keep his bat in the lineup on a regular basis. Unfortunately, his glove has been all but unplayable at third base this year. Morel has already made eight errors, and his -8 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -11 Outs Above Average (OAA) both rank last among all third basemen. In fact, his -11 OAA ranks dead last in all of baseball.

To make matters worse, Morel’s bat has not been what it was last season. While he is on pace for nearly 30 home runs, his .702 OPS is barely above the league average. That’s not terrible, but his .203/.315/.388 slash line certainly doesn’t justify his awkward fit at third base. His .375 xwOBA (10th among qualified NL batters) suggests he’s due for some positive regression, but even if he starts hitting again, it’s become clear he’s a much better fit at DH (where has has started his other 15 games) than third base.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, they aren’t exactly flush with other options. Madrigal has a smooth glove, but his bat is a serious weakness; he has a .616 OPS over three seasons with the Cubs and a .535 OPS this season. Wisdom is off to a poor start at the plate himself, and his defensive metrics at third base over the past few years have been nearly as bad as Morel’s. Mastrobuoni has never looked like more than a bench piece, and the same could be said of David Bote.

Therefore, unless the Cubs are planning to look outside the organization for a new third baseman, their best solution could be a prospect like Shaw. The 22-year-old is currently playing for the Double-A Tennessee Smokies, with whom he has a 118 wRC+ in 69 games over the past two years. Shaw got the bulk of his starts at shortstop last season, but he has slid over to third for 35 out of 54 games in 2024. His glove will never be a standout tool; like Morel, he just needs a position so he can get his powerful swing and quick legs into the lineup.

Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs all have Shaw ranked as the No. 3 prospect in the Cubs organization, which is widely considered one of the deepest farm systems in the game. On the more bullish side, Keith Law of The Athletic recently put Shaw 15th overall, tops among Cubs farmhands. Given Shaw’s young age and lack of experience above Double-A, he won’t be the immediate answer in Chicago. As Mooney puts it, the Cubs are “open to the possibility” that Shaw “could eventually become part of the solution.” Until then, the Cubs might just have to hope Morel turns it around at the plate enough to mask his struggles with the glove. He may already be doing just that, with a .934 OPS in his last 10 games.

Cubs Notes: Suter, Imanaga, Shaw

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The Cubs were among several teams with interest in left-hander Brent Suter prior to his decision to sign in Cincinnati on a one-year deal earlier this week, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Wittenmyer adds that Chicago remained interested in Suter’s services “down to the end” of his time as a free agent.

That the Cubs would have interest in Suter is hardly a surprise. The 34-year-old was among the lefty relievers the club was reportedly interested in prior to last summer’s trade deadline, and the club has found itself connected to the relief market frequently with this winter, with Ryan Braiser and Robert Stephenson among the names rumored as potential Cubs targets. Suter also spent seven seasons in Milwaukee under new Cubs manager Craig Counsell prior to joining the Rockies prior to the 2023 campaign.

The relief market has seen the likes of Andrew Chafin, Will Smith and Chris Stratton sign over the past month in addition to Chafin, with right-hander Jordan Hicks also recently coming off the board after signing with the Giants as a starting pitcher. Even so, the Cubs nonetheless figure to have plenty of options available to them as they search to upgrade their bullpen this winter. In addition to Stephenson and Brasier, the likes of left-hander Matt Moore and right-hander David Robertson could provide some veteran stability to the late innings for Chicago, where they currently project to utilize Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather.

More from the north side of Chicago…

  • The Cubs made their first big move of the offseason last week by landing left-hander Shota Imanaga on a four-year, $53MM deal. While Imanaga was posted for MLB teams to sign less than two months ago, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times recently detailed the club’s efforts to land the southpaw, which date back to the club beginning to scout the southpaw back in 2018, the third season of Imanaga’s career in Nippon Professional Baseball. Lee notes that Imanaga caught Chicago’s attention in a more significant way during the World Baseball Softball Confederation’s 2019 Premiere12 tournament, the same tournament where they first identified outfielder Seiya Suzuki as a possible future target. That lengthy time spent scouting the duo has paid off as Imanaga figures to slot behind Justin Steele in the middle of the club’s rotation this year, while Suzuki slashed an impressive .285/.357/.485 in 138 games as the club’s everyday right fielder in the second year of his five-year pact with the Cubs last year.
  • Chicago’s first-round pick in the 2023 draft, shortstop Matt Shaw, made a big first impression during his first professional campaign with a .357/.400/.618 slash line in 170 trips to the plate across three levels last summer, including a stop at Double-A where he slashed a strong .292/.329/.523 in 15 games. With that performance, the 22-year-old has put himself on the radar for a possible big league debut at some point during the 2024 campaign. Gold glove fielders Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson are locked into the middle infielder positions at Wrigley, however, and that’s led Shaw to explore new defensive positions this winter. Shaw himself told Ryan Herrera of CHGO Sports at this weekend’s Cubs Convention that “probably 99%” of his defensive reps this winter have come at third base. Prospect evaluators questioned Shaw’s arm strength when he was selected last summer, making the hot corner an unusual fit for the youngster. On the other hand, the Cubs found success in moving Nick Madrigal to third base last year despite similar questions about arm strength with Madrigal posting +10 Outs Above Average at the position in 2023.

Cubs Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick Matt Shaw

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The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with first round selection Matt Shaw, as first reported by Keith Law of the Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll be paid the full $4.85MM slot value associated with the 13th overall selection.

Shaw, a University of Maryland product, was generally perceived as a mid-first round talent. He ranked 7th on Law’s pre-draft rankings, 13th at Baseball America and 16th for MLB Pipeline. Evaluators praise his hit tool and solid power potential. The MVP of the Cape Cod League last summer, the righty-swinging middle infielder hit .341/.445/.697 with 24 home runs and more walks than strikeouts during his final season in College Park.

While Shaw played shortstop for the Terps, reports suggest he’s likely to move to second base in pro ball because of a below-average arm. He’s expected to stick at the keystone and could potentially move quickly through the minors as an advanced college bat.

The Cubs have Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner penciled into the middle infield for the next few seasons. If Shaw hits well enough in the minors to push to the MLB level within the next year or two, the extra depth would be a nice “problem” to have.

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