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Quick Hits: Miller, Wacha, Expansion

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Some items from around the game…

  • Cardinals reliever Andrew Miller spoke to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about several topics, including the recent agreement between the league and players’ union about the 2020 season, how Miller is handling the shutdown, and the rather mysterious arm problem that sidelined Miller earlier this month.  “There are some explanations for some of what I’m going through and I have a lot of appreciation for the amount of time [Cardinals head athletic trainer] Adam Olsen and Dr. [Brian] Mahaffey have put in helping me to look for some answers,” Miller said.  Though there still isn’t an actual diagnosis of Miller’s issue, “I think I have answers that make a lot of sense and they’re not the type of thing that brings any sort of concern to my health and my livelihood.”  The southpaw is currently throwing, albeit under “not…ideal” circumstances working out at his home rather than in a normal training environment.
  • Michael Wacha turned to some offseason video analysis with his father to help solve mechanical problems from the 2019 season, which put him in a good place heading into his first Spring Training with the Mets, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News writes.  By the time Wacha met with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and assistant pitching coach Jeremy Accardo in camp, “they said my mechanical changes that I made over the offseason were exactly what they were going to be telling me,” Wacha said.  “Exactly the same type of information or helpful tips that they were trying to get me into, I already made them on my own.”  The early returns in Grapefruit League action were somewhat promising, as Wacha posted a 1.17 ERA over 7 2/3 innings, albeit with four walks against only five strikeouts.  However, Wacha also didn’t allow any home runs, which was a positive sign after an ugly 1.8 HR/9 helped push his ERA to 4.76 over 126 2/3 innings with the Cardinals last season.  Wacha signed a one-year, $3MM with the Mets in the offseason and now looks to be a member of their starting five, in the wake of Noah Syndergaard’s season-ending Tommy John surgery.
  • With league revenues bound to take a massive hit due to the shutdown, could expansion be an ideal way to inject some new money into the sport?  Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards explores the question, noting that adding two new teams worth $750MM each (which is perhaps a conservative estimate for the price tag of a new club) in franchise fees would give each current team an extra $50MM in revenue.  Commissioner Rob Manfred has often said that the league would only consider increasing its membership after all of the current 30 teams (namely the A’s and Rays) had some type of plans in place for a new ballpark, and Edwards observes that the league hasn’t had any real financial incentive to expand in recent years.  Of course, the pandemic could now change that stance entirely, though Edwards also points out that the worldwide financial uncertainty caused by the ongoing crisis could lead to fewer potential owners willing meet the price for an expansion team, and cash-strapped cities will now have even less of a reason to spend resources on building a new stadium for a new team.

Pitcher Notes: Twins, Wacha, Mariners, A’s

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Veteran right-hander Jhoulys Chacin had to settle for a minor league contract with the Twins at the outset of the month, but he may be impressing the club enough to end up on its season-opening roster. Manager Rocco Baldelli said (via the Star Tribune) that Chacin has “done everything he can to this point to put himself in position to eventually win a spot.” As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored earlier this week, the 32-year-old Chacin is one of a few candidates in the running. Lefty Lewis Thorpe is also in the mix, but he tweeted Tuesday: “I’ve left camp for a week or 2 for personal matters. I’m healthy and excited for this year. I’ll be back shortly.” Baldelli wasn’t willing to divulge why Thorpe’s taking a leave of absence. However, he noted that the Twins do believe Thorpe will return “at some point during camp, [but I] can’t tell you when that’s going to be” (via Dawn Klemish of MLB.com).

  • The Mets reportedly aren’t sure how the No. 5 spot in their rotation will look this year, but righty Michael Wacha made a strong case for the job Tuesday, as Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. Wacha’s fastball ranged from 94 to 96 mph during his outing. “They told me I am a starter, so that is what I am here for,” Wacha said. The former Cardinal, 28, has worked almost exclusively as a starter to this point, but he did yo-yo between St. Louis’ rotation and bullpen during a rough 2019 campaign. The Mets then added Wacha for a $3MM guarantee in free agency, and he’s now competing against lefty Steven Matz for the last place in their starting staff.
  • Mariners righty Kendall Graveman has made good progress in his recovery from July 2018 Tommy John surgery, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times details. Graveman was with Oakland when he underwent the procedure, but he hooked on with the Cubs as a free agent for 2019 and didn’t end up pitching for the club. Now healthy, the 29-year-old Graveman – whom the Mariners signed for $2MM in November – figures to begin 2020 in the M’s rotation. It has been quite some time since Graveman turned in a full, effective season; at his best, he totaled 186 innings of 4.11 ERA/4.39 FIP ball with a 5.23 K/9, 2.27 BB/9 and a 52.1 percent groundball rate in 2016.
  • Athletics righty Daulton Jefferies is dealing with a biceps strain and will undergo an MRI later this week, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. However, manager Bob Melvin suggested it’s not an especially serious injury. The 24-year-old Jefferies, who originally joined the Athletics as the 37th overall pick in 2016,  was a standout in Double-A ball last season. In his first experience at the level, he posted a 3.66 ERA/3.19 FIP with 10.13 K/9 and 0.98 BB/9 in 64 innings.

Mets Considering Creative Approach To 5th Starter Spot

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The Mets are at least pondering a less-than-standard approach to filling their fifth starter’s spot, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s possible that neither Steven Matz nor Michael Wacha will simply win the job in camp.

[RELATED: Camp Battles: Mets Rotation]

Other organizations have already acted effectively upon the fundamental premise. The Mets would shed typical forms in favor of a flexible arrangement that maximizes the abilities of the players on hand.

It’s certainly an intriguing concept, at least in some of its forms. There are several possibilities, per Sherman: Matz and Wacha could essentially tag in and out of the rotation depending upon matchups. The team might also utilize an opener. While the premise isn’t specifically contemplated in Sherman’s piece, it stands to reason that those two starters could also be utilized in a piggyback arrangement at times.

This all obviously depends upon health. Most contending organizations strive to have more arms available than is needed on paper, since it’s rare that all can be called upon at a given time. In this case, especially, that’s a major factor since both Matz and Wacha have dealt with fairly significant health limitations in recent years.

As Sherman explains, there are other factors to be considered as well. It’s tempting to imagine a game opened by Seth Lugo, carried by multi-inning stints from Matz and/or Wacha, and then closed down by power relievers Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, and Edwin Diaz. But the realities of day-to-day pitching management likely won’t allow such a clean progression on a regular basis. And the fact is, for all their individual and collective upside, every one of those hurlers enters the season with a significant downside scenario.

All of that isn’t to say this concept isn’t worth exploring. To the contrary, this seems like a logical application of shifts we’ve witnessed in recent years. Perhaps some starters shouldn’t be tasked with quite so many innings, while some relievers can handle more. The Mets’ own array of talent does seem to suit an adaptable methodology.

Mixing and matching and generally acting flexibly can have obvious advantages. There’ll also be some potential pitfalls to be navigated. Taken as a whole, the idea only makes the already interesting Mets more fun to watch.

Pitcher Notes: Rays, Glasnow, Mets, Wacha, Cardinals, Flaherty

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While recovering from November wrist surgery, Tyler Glasnow is tinkering with his arsenal. The big right-hander plans on ditching his changeup and replacing it with a splitter, tweets MLB.com’s Juan Toribio . Glasnow’s changeup has never been a primary feature of his arsenal, topping at a 10.3% usage rate in 2017. It also hasn’t been a particularly effective pitch, save for in 2019 when hitters managed to slug just .125 against it, albeit in very limited usage (3.5%). It’s certainly intriguing to dream on a splitter to compliment Glasnow’s two lockdown offerings, but the pitch will have to survive spring training before taking on much (if any) significance. On a night of high drama, let’s check in on a couple other pitchers…

  • Michael Wacha recognizes the starting depth he will be contending against in Mets camp this spring, but he’s undaunted, per Newsday’s Tim Healey. After all, as Healey points out, Wacha twice fought his way back into the Cardinals rotation last season after time in the bullpen. Of course, that might also be a sign that he’s the likeliest of the Mets’ six rotation candidates to start the year out of the money (both literally and figuratively, given the incentives in Wacha’s contract for games started). Wacha finished last season with a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP across 126 2/3 innings, and he’s only twice crossed the 150 inning threshold. It’ll be an uphill climb for Wacha to make the rotation by opening day, but it’s not impossible. Given the injury rate, there’s a decent chance he finds his way into the rotation at some point in 2020 regardless.
  • Jack Flaherty isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 season, which means he can’t test free agency until following 2023, but the Cardinals ought to do their due diligence in locking him up now, writes Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Easier said than done of course, especially with a player who has already shown signs of understanding his tremendous value. Frederickson recounts Flaherty’s rejection of the Cardinals salary offer before last season, which cost him $10,000, though the penalty was worth it from Flaherty’s perspective. The statement he was able to make about the current system was of bigger importance to the Cardinals’ ace. That’s a good sign in terms of Flaherty’s character and competitive spirit, but perhaps less so for Cardinals fans hoping for news of an early extension. Flaherty’s displeasure with the arbitration system has little to do with the Cardinals, of course, but after a dominant 2019 in which he posted a 2.75 ERA/3.46 FIP, including a mind-boggling 0.91 ERA in the second half, it’s understandable for Flaherty to be at least a little displeased at making close to the league minimum.

Mets Agree To Sign Michael Wacha

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DECEMBER 15: Anthony DiComo of MLB.com has the breakdown on the incentives in Wacha’s contract. He’ll earn $500K for making 10, 14, and 18 starts, along with $500K for each start from 20-30. Finally, Wacha can earn $1.35MM worth of award bonuses. With $8.35MM worth of incentives, Wacha’s total earning potential for 2020 comes out to $11.35MM.

DECEMBER 11, 3:23pm: There’s a deal in place pending a physical, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). It guarantees $3MM, per Sherman (via Twitter), with up to $7MM in possible incentives.

3:09pm: The Mets are “working hard to finalize” a contract with righty Michael Wacha, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). If completed, it’ll be for a one-year term; financials have yet to be reported.

If this deal is wrapped up, Wacha would presumably round out the New York starting five. He’d also become the latest client of CAA — the former outfit of Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen — to join the New York organization.

It’s interesting to see Wacha heading in on a bounceback arrangement as Zack Wheeler departs with a huge contract. It wasn’t long ago that the former was seen as a major free agent target of the future, while the latter’s career was in limbo owing to health reasons.

Now, it’s Wacha who is trying to prove he can stay healthy and restore his former effectiveness. The former first-round pick has had some peaks to go with the valleys in recent years, but hasn’t looked like the budding young staff he was in 2013-15.

Last season, Wacha turned in a 4.76 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 over 126 2/3 innings. With balls flying out of the yard at a rate of 1.8 per nine, he was ultimately demoted to the bullpen. Wacha ended up averaging a career-low 93.4 mph with his fastball, though that’s only one tick off from his overall career average.

It’s tough to say just how much upside Wacha offers at this stage. He was able to stay on the mound for most of 2019 but hasn’t been as effective as he was before shoulder and back issues began to crop up. Statcast numbers don’t offer much in the way of encouragement; if anything, they suggest his strong ’18 output (3.20 ERA in 84 1/3 innings) was based upon some good fortune (.249 BABIP-against, .286 wOBA vs. .350 xwOBA). Still, it’s awfully tempting to dream on a powerhouse Mets rotation if Wacha and Steven Matz are able to turn in healthy and productive campaigns.

Mets Announce Wacha Signing, Designate Chris Mazza

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The Mets announced today that they have signed righty Michael Wacha, as previously reported. To create 40-man space, the club designated fellow right-hander Chris Mazza for assignment.

Mazza made his MLB debut last year, throwing 16 1/3 innings of 5.51 ERA ball over nine outings. He was better in the upper minors, working in the mid-three ERA range in stints at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Mazza has a penchant for drawing groundballs on the farm, though he’ll need to prove he can do so consistently in the bigs if he’s able to earn his way back up.

Wacha tells reporters that he expects to function as a starter in New York. Indeed, that was a key factor in his decision, he suggested. (Via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, on Twitter.) With Rick Porcello also set to join the staff on the same premise, it seems the Mets will at some point strike a trade involving another starter (or have some explaining to do).

Postseason Injury Notes: Chapman, Wacha, Diaz

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Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman was seen with his left hand heavily bandaged during the team’s celebration last night, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post, but the lefty insisted that there was no serious injury at play. Rather, Chapman explained, he was hit with a bottle while jumping with teammates to celebrate the Yankees’ advancement to the American League Championship Series. There’s no indication that Chapman would need to miss New York’s forthcoming date with either the Astros or the Rays.

A few more injury situations to monitor around the league…

  • Cardinals righty Michael Wacha will throw a bullpen session tomorrow, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. A mild shoulder strain kept Wacha off the Cardinals’ NLDS roster, but if he comes out of this ’pen session well and the Cards manage to topple the Braves in tomorrow’s decisive Game 5, Wacha could reemerge as an option for the pitching staff in the next round. Of course, Wacha didn’t exactly cement himself as a crucial part of a postseason roster while struggling through one of his worst big league seasons. In 126 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.76 ERA with career-worst marks in K/9 (7.4), BB/9 (3.9) and HR/9 (1.85). He’ll be a free agent this winter, so if he doesn’t return for a potential NLCS berth, Wacha may have already tossed his last pitch as a Cardinal.
  • Rays slugger Yandy Diaz is still on the team’s postseason roster despite exiting Monday’s game with an apparent foot injury, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Though he’s not in tonight’s starting lineup — Joey Wendle gets the nod at third base, with Ji-Man Choi at first and Tommy Pham DH’ing — Diaz presumably remains available for pinch-hit duties or for a mid-game substitution. Wade Miley is the only lefty on Houston’s ALDS roster, but Diaz and his .314/.397/.588 slash against southpaws could quite likely emerge from the dugout if Miley makes his way to the mound.

Quick Hits: Pujols, Wacha, Encarnacion, Kapler

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Unsurprisingly, Angels first baseman/designated hitter Albert Pujols has no plans to retire prior to 2020 or ’21 – the final two seasons of his 10-year, $240MM contract. Pujols, who will turn 40 during the upcoming offseason, told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register: “Whether it’s tomorrow or in spring training, if I feel one day the fire is not there, it doesn’t matter how much money is left on my contract, it’s time to go. But I don’t see that happening. Because this year this is the most fun I had because I was healthy and I was able to do things I wasn’t able to do in the past.” Pujols underwent multiple surgeries a year ago, causing his season to end in August, but the future Hall of Famer has hung in there from start to finish in 2019. While his overall production hasn’t been good, Pujols has managed to hit 23 home runs, leaving him four short of tying the legendary Willie Mays (660) for fifth on the all-time list. If healthy, Pujols may have a shot at reaching the hallowed 700-HR mark sometime before his contract runs out. He’ll earn $59MM during that two-year span.

Elsewhere around baseball…

  • Still just one game up on the Brewers in the NL Central, the Cardinals might not even make it to the NLDS this year. If the Redbirds do get that far, though, it’s “unlikely” injured right-hander Michael Wacha will factor into their plans, according to general manager Michael Girsch (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Wacha, who suffered a mild strain of his pitching shoulder Wednesday, won’t be able to pick up a ball for at least five to seven days, per Hummel. Fortunately, Wacha doesn’t have any structural damage, nor is this shoulder injury related to previous issues he has dealt with in that area. Manager Mike Shildt is optimistic Wacha will pitch again this season, but it appears that will require the Cardinals to advance to the NLCS.
  • Yankees slugger Edwin Encarnacion still hasn’t returned from the left oblique strain he incurred Sept. 12, and it doesn’t look like a sure bet he’ll play in either of the team’s last two regular-season games. Encarnacion said Friday that he’s not “mentally over” the injury, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News relays. It remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to overcome the issue by the time the Yankees’ ALDS matchup against the Twins starts Oct. 4.
  • The Phillies have folded in back-to-back years under manager Gabe Kapler, leading to speculation that the club could fire him at season’s end. Kapler spoke about his status Friday, telling Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer and other reporters: “It’s not something I’m thinking about right now. It’s not something I’m worried about and haven’t had any conversations about it.” Kapler at least “seems safe for the weekend,” Breen writes, but the Phillies could choose to go in another direction after that. The Phillies finished 80-82 under Kapler in his rookie campaign as a manager in 2018, and even after an incredibly active offseason, they’ll wind up with an almost identical record this year. They’re an even 80-80 with two games remaining.

Michael Wacha To Undergo MRI

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Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha exited what may have been his final appearance in a Cardinals uniform during the second inning last night due to what the team initially termed a “mild strain” of his right shoulder. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Wacha had difficulty getting loose in warmups yesterday and is now slated for an MRI to gather more information on the injury.

The results of the imaging will be consequential on multiple levels, as they could not only determine Wacha’s status for the Cardinals’ postseason roster but could have a considerable impact on the right-hander’s looming free agency. Wacha would presumably only be a consideration to make the postseason roster as a reliever — Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson would handle starting duties — but a balky shoulder could leave him on the outside looking in.

Wacha’s free-agent stock has tumbled considerably in 2019. Entering the year, he was coming off a 3.20 ERA through 15 starts in 2018 and a solid 30-start campaign in 2017. Wacha did miss half the 2018 campaign, but that was due to a pair of oblique strains on his left side — not an arm-related injury. As a former first-round pick and top prospect who was slated to hit free agency in advance of his age-28 season, Wacha would’ve benefited immensely from a continuation of the 3.82 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 he’d posted over his prior 250 big league innings.

Instead, he missed a week early in the season due to tendinitis in his knee and has struggled repeatedly when working as a starter. The St. Louis organization has twice demoted him to the bullpen, only to return him to the rotation out of necessity, but the results haven’t been favorable in either role. Overall, he’s pitched to a 4.76 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, a whopping 1.85 HR/9 and a 48 percent ground-ball rate.

Of all the red flags surrounding Wacha, though, this latest bout of shoulder trouble could be the most concerning. It’s been years since the shoulder caused him to miss time, but Wacha does have a history of shoulder troubles. A stress reaction in that same shoulder caused him to miss more than two months of his second big league season back in 2014, and he missed more than a month with shoulder inflammation in 2016. Even if the MRI reveals no major damage, Wacha may not have much of a chance to prove that he can continue pitching unencumbered by the shoulder discomfort, and a second-inning departure due to shoulder pain isn’t exactly a high point on which to set out into the open market.

Wacha is a fairly accomplished big league pitcher — he’s a former All-Star and NLCS MVP with a sub-4.00 ERA in 867 2/3 career innings — but despite having age firmly on his side, he’ll enter the offseason as more of a rebound candidate than a marquee free agent.

Cards Rumors: C-Mart, Wacha, Bumgarner, Outfielders

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The Cardinals are reportedly open to trading right-hander Carlos Martinez and outfielder Tyler O’Neill by the July 31 deadline. However, they’re not “aggressively” shopping either of those two or outfielder Harrison Bader, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. On the other hand, they plan to “explore interest” in righty Michael Wacha, according to Goold.

Martinez, the most notable member of the bunch, is someone the Cardinals at least took offers for at last year’s deadline, per Goold. But because Martinez assumed the reins as their closer last month when Jordan Hicks underwent Tommy John surgery, the Redbirds aren’t as willing to consider moving him this season. The former (and possibly future) starter had been eminently effective in a full-time relief role until his past few appearances, having allowed five earned runs on seven hits and three walks across three frames in three outings this week. He now owns a 3.80 ERA, albeit with a far better 3.18 FIP, in 23 2/3 innings on this season. The hard-throwing 27-year-old has picked up seven saves on nine tries and posted 9.5 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a superb 64.5 percent groundball rate.

For St. Louis, there’s no imminent threat of losing Martinez, whom the club signed to a five-year, $51MM extension entering the 2017 campaign. He’s controllable through 2023 via two club options, and will play for a reasonable $11.5MM salary in each season through 2021.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals could watch Wacha walk in free agency during the offseason, which helps explain their amenability to parting with him now. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak did tell Goold the Cardinals don’t “see anybody on the current roster that we’re looking to move,” but Wacha has fallen from grace this season. The once-promising Wacha has logged a hideous 5.42 ERA/6.15 FIP with 7.27 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 78 innings, and has lost his spot in the Cardinals’ rotation multiple times. Considering the way Wacha has performed in 2019, his $6.35MM salary looks steep.

Thanks in part to Wacha’s struggles, the Cardinals’ starting staff has come up short of expectations thus far. Aside from Dakota Hudson, they don’t have a single hurler with double-digit starts and a sub-4.00 ERA. Even Hudson’s 3.59 ERA is accompanied by a subpar K/BB ratio and a shaky 5.13 FIP. With that in mind, Goold writes that St. Louis has “evaluated” Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner, the top rental starter who could move wind up changing teams before the deadline. However, with the Cardinals on his eight-team no-trade list, Bumgarner would be able to turn down a move to St. Louis.

The Cardinals’ outfield, meantime, may have two long-term building blocks in O’Neill and Bader. Their presences look especially important with Marcell Ozuna set to hit free agency after the season and Jose Martinez not being a viable defensive option in the grass. O’Neill, 24, has been a solid offensive producer since debuting last year, having slashed .275/.314/.502 (115 wRC+) with 14 home runs. He has, however, fanned in a massive percentage of plate appearances (39.2) and drawn walks at only a 4.5 percent clip. It’s also worth noting an impossible-to-sustain .405 bating average on balls in play has buoyed his numbers.

O’Neill won’t even reach arbitration until after 2021, while Bader’s scheduled to start the process at the conclusion of the 2020 season. The 25-year-old Bader was a 3.5-fWAR player in 2018, his first full season, owing to above-average offense and tremendous defense. While Bader remains a star in the field (8 Defensive Runs Saved, 9.4 Ultimate Zone Rating in center this season), his output with the bat has plummeted. He’s hitting a mere .207/.325/.361 (82 wRC+) with six HRs and five steals in 247 PA.

Although there are causes for concern with regards to O’Neill and Bader, it appears they’ll remain in place through the deadline. But Mozeliak informed Goold,  “We don’t know where we need to go to change our team.”  No matter what the Cardinals do change by month’s end, they’ll try to stop their playoff drought from reaching four years. Despite a lukewarm 50-47 record, they’re very much in the race, trailing a wild-card spot by half a game and the NL Central-leading Cubs by 3 1/2.

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