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Davidoff On Red Sox, CBA, Rangers, Darvish

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In today's column, Ken Davidoff of Newsday tackles a number of topics including what's next for Boston.  Here are some highlights..

  • When the dust settles, the Red Sox are expected to name Ben Cherington as Theo Epstein's successor in Boston.  While the club could take one step toward closing their credibility gap by hiring an experienced manager to complement their rookie GM, that's not likely to be the case.  The Red Sox already view Cherington as having GM experience because of the work he has done with the organization.  They'll more likely look to hire someone with a willingness to utilize statistical analysis and work with the rest of the baseball operations department.
  • This year, MLB and the Players Association had hoped to announced their next collective-bargaining agreement during the World Series like they did in 2006.  However, with the World Series just three days away, people in the loop aren't optimistic.   The two sides are meeting virtually every day and the biggest rancor appears to be surrounding Bud Selig's desire for hard slotting in the amateur draft.  It's hard to imagine that this will result in any kind of a work stoppage, but it does seem like they'll miss out on the great PR opportunity that they were able to capture five years ago.
  • We don't see the Rangers and Angels as trading partners because there's too much anxiety over being burned.  However, the Rangers used to admire Halos catcher Mike Napoli from a distance, and were able to trade for him immediately after the Blue Jays acquired him.  Davidoff asked Daniels if he kept an eye on players in the divison whom he couldn't acquire by trade but could hope would get dealt to a different club so he could pounce.  For Daniels, it's not that clear-cut, but he says that he checks in when someone he's interested in moves out of the AL West.
  • Baseball officials are increasingly convinced that righthander Yu Darvish will be posted to the major leagues, and industry folks wonder how much will teams pay.  The Red Sox paid more than $51MM five years ago to talk with Daisuke Matsuzaka, and that hasn't panned out for them. The expectation is that in light of Boston's disappointment with Matsuzaka, teams won't bid as much for Darvish.

Rangers Links: Wilson, Napoli, Cruz

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After allowing six runs in six innings today against the Tigers, C.J. Wilson now has an 8.04 ERA in three postseason starts this year.  Not only did it hurt the Rangers in Game Five of the ALCS, but, as you'll read, Wilson's free agent value will also likely be hurt by his recent struggles.  Here's the latest on the Rangers…

  • A strong postseason could put Wilson in line for a five or six-year contract worth between $85-$100MM this winter, an agent tells ESPN's Buster Olney (Twitter link).  A weak postseason performance, however, could limit Wilson to a deal of five years and $60-$65MM.  In August, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted that Wilson could crack the $100MM club due to the lack of ace pitchers on the free agent market this winter.
  • GM Jon Daniels today spoke to reporters, including Jeff Caplan of ESPN Dallas, about Wilson's impending free agency.  While the Rangers haven't yet begun negotiations, Daniels said the front office staff has "spent a lot of time talking about it and preparing for it. We just don't want it to be a distraction any more than it is, naturally."
  • Daniels described the market value for Wilson as being "probably bigger than we would like and probably right about what he would like.  We're not even really spending too much time on that right now. Obviously, it's going to be a top priority for us."
  • The Rangers couldn't acquire Mike Napoli directly from the Angels since Los Angeles wasn't going to deal Napoli within the division, reports Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com (Twitter link).  Once Napoli was dealt to Toronto in the Vernon Wells trade, the Rangers "pounced" to acquire Napoli for Frank Francisco and the rest is history.
  • You can't blame former Mets general manager Steve Phillips for trading away Nelson Cruz in 2000, writes MetsBlog.com's Matthew Cerrone.  The Mets originally signed Cruz as an amateur free agent in 1998, when Cruz was 17, and then dealt him to Oakland two years later.
  • As reported earlier today by ESPN New York's Wallace Matthews, the Rangers are planning to make C.C. Sabathia a contract offer this winter, provided that Sabathia opts out of his contract with the Yankees.

Los Angeles Notes: Beltre, Napoli, Dodgers

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Both the Angels (86 vs. 80) and Dodgers (81 vs. 80) have already improved on last year's win totals with one game to play. Here's a look back at a couple moves that shaped the Angels' season and a look ahead to the Dodgers' offseason…

  • Adrian Beltre, who lives 30 minutes from Angel Stadium, begged the Angels to sign him last offseason, according to Peter Gammons of MLB Network (on Twitter). Instead, he signed a five-year deal with the AL West Champion Rangers and has a .296/.332/.563 line with 32 home runs. It won't be surprising if the Angels are on the lookout for third base help this offseason. 
  • Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times explains that there's reason to consider the Vernon Wells–Mike Napoli trade one of the worst deals in Angels history. Wells is expensive and has struggled offensively, Napoli has had the best offensive season of his career and the Angels finished second to the Rangers. Manager Mike Scioscia says we should give the deal some time before calling it a poor one for Los Angeles.
  • Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times that he understands Los Angeles is a star-driven city and will consider the best players out there this winter, even if they cost $100MM or more. Still, Colletti says he's "very conscious" of the Dodgers' drop in attendance.

Revisiting The Mike Napoli Trades

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Typically when you take on most of one of the worst contracts in baseball, you don't have to give up anything of value.  However, the Angels did just that by including catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli in their January trade with Toronto for outfielder Vernon Wells.

Napoli

The Halos probably weren't keen on paying Napoli $5.8MM in 2011.  They were never big on his work behind the plate, and at the time of the trade probably expected first baseman Kendrys Morales to be ready for Spring Training.  The Angels were committed to Bobby Abreu and understandably wanted to move him to DH, another role Napoli can fill.  Still, even at the time, it seemed plausible that the Angels would have found Napoli 400 plate appearances at his various spots.   He'd hit 20+ home runs for three consecutive years, and it's surprising the Angels felt they could spare the power bat.  Even if the Angels were dead set on acquiring Wells, I doubt Napoli was a requirement for the Blue Jays.

The Angels failed to get value for Napoli, but the Jays didn't consider him an ideal fit either.  In theory, Napoli could have complemented Adam Lind at first base, backed up J.P. Arencibia behind the plate, and filled in at DH for Edwin Encarnacion or Juan Rivera when needed.  Perhaps if the Blue Jays had found an immediate taker for Rivera, they would have kept Napoli.

Instead, Napoli was quickly sent to the Rangers for reliever Frank Francisco and less than $1MM in cash.  The Rangers were perhaps the worst fit for Napoli of the three teams, as they had Yorvit Torrealba and Matt Treanor behind the plate, Mitch Moreland and Chris Davis as first base options, and Michael Young to DH and rove around the infield.  Acquired as a bench player in January, Napoli has started all but nine of his 77 games to date with Texas (he missed almost a month with an oblique strain).  

It's only been 285 plate appearances, but Napoli has flourished with the Rangers, hitting .290/.386/.592 with 19 home runs.  His chance of being tendered a contract after the '11 season was once in doubt, but now seems like a lock.  Depending on how many plate appearances he ends up with, a salary approaching $8MM for 2012 is possible for Napoli.  Unlike the Angels and Blue Jays, the Rangers are happy to have him.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Only One Extension For Catchers This Offseason

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Extension season might not be over yet, but if recent history is any indication, we've seen most or all of this spring's extensions. You have to go back to 2008 to find an extension completed in May or June, so there's a chance that Ryan Braun's deal will be the last one of its kind for a few months.

If that's the case, 37 players will have signed extensions since the beginning of the 2010-11 offseason. Exactly one of those players, Ryan Hanigan of the Reds, is a catcher. It's noteworthy, if not downright surprising, that no starting catchers signed extensions when you consider that dependable catching is hard to come by and that teams spent aggressively last winter.

Unlike the 2009-10 offseason, when the Twins extended Joe Mauer, no backstop was an obvious candidate for an extension. Mike Napoli is getting expensive and he doesn't have a reputation as a good defender. Matt Wieters hit just .249/.319/.377 last year, so it's understandable that the Orioles didn't commit to him on a mutliyear deal. And it would have made little sense for the Indians to extend Carlos Santana, who had an operation to repair a damaged knee ligament (his LCL) last August.

Buster Posey was an extension candidate, but there's no rush for the Giants to extend him, since he's under team control through 2016. Perhaps the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year will be in line for a long-term deal after 2011 if he repeats his breakout rookie performance.

Geovany Soto would have been a more traditional candidate for an extension. He hit .280/.393/.497 with 17 homers last year and was arbitration eligible for the first time in his career after the season. Soto is young enough for the Cubs to want him to keep him around (28) and close enough to free agency that they might be thinking about securing his services for an extra season or two (Soto is eligible for free agency after 2013). They didn't agree to terms on a long-term contract and instead signed a one-year, $3MM deal.

Given the circumstances surrounding each extension candidate, it's easier to see why Hanigan was the only backstop to sign long-term. Next year, however, more catchers, including some of the ones above, could sign extensions. Elite catchers don't hit free agency often, so the teams that develop catching may choose to keep it in place long-term by offering promising catchers extensions.

AL Notes: Royals, Miller, Chavez, Napoli, Vizquel

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Let's take a look at some items related to the Junior Circuit..

The Connection Between Pence, Scott And Young

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Hunter Pence and his representatives at Beverly Hills Sports Council likely took notice when Mike Napoli and the Rangers agreed to a $5.8MM salary for 2011. And Pence’s agency will probably be watching the cases for Luke Scott and Delmon Young just as carefully (keep track of all arbitration submissions with MLBTR's Arb Tracker).

Pence, a super two who is arbitration eligible for the second time, asked for more money than Scott, Napoli, or Young even though the Astros outfielder is a year further from free agency than the others. Pence can ask for $6.9MM through arbitration, since his career totals compare well with players like Scott and Young, who are on track to hit free agency after 2012. 

Pence

Pence doesn’t have as much big league experience as Scott, Napoli or Young, but he has more career runs and stolen bases than any of them and comparable home run and RBI totals. Pence is also working from a relatively high base salary ($3.5MM) and is the only one of the players above to have made an All-Star team.

Length and consistency of career contribution matter in an arbitration hearing, which plays in Pence’s favor. He has appeared in 156 games or more in each of his three full seasons, hitting exactly 25 homers three times in a row. He has finished the past two campaigns with a .282 batting average, so it shouldn’t be hard for BHSC to show that Pence has been consistent and durable.

Pence is far from a perfect player; he has been successful just 61% of the time he has attempted to steal bases and doesn’t walk as much as Scott or Napoli. But it's his $6.9MM asking price that could become his biggest problem. Napoli, a comparable player in terms of career accomplishments, settled for $5.8MM. Carlos Quentin, another comparable player, already settled for $5.05MM, reducing the others’ leverage.

Young ($6.25MM) and Scott ($6.85MM) filed for less than Pence, but they could still help their fellow-outfielder by winning in arbitration. If they lose or settle, however, Pence will have a hard time explaining that he’s worth more than the $6.025MM midpoint (the Astros filed at $5.15MM) when comparable players are making $5-6MM.

Pence and the Astros are headed to arbitration soon and what happens with Scott and Young could have a major impact on how much the Astros are paying their right fielder for 2011 and beyond.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Rangers Avoid Arbitration With Mike Napoli

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The Rangers have avoided arbitration with Mike Napoli, agreeing to a one-year, $5.8MM contract with the catcher/first baseman, reports MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan (via Twitter).  Napoli is represented by Brian Grieper.  

The deal concludes a whirlwind eight day stretch for Napoli.  He and Juan Rivera were sent to the Blue Jays in exchange for Vernon Wells on January 21, and then four days later was flipped to the Rangers in exchange for Frank Francisco.  Napoli submitted a $6.1MM arbitration number to the Angels before the initial trade that was countered by a $5.3MM offer from the Halos, so Napoli's new deal with Texas nets him a bit more than the midpoint.  Napoli still has one year of arbitration eligibility left as a Super Two player.

The Rangers' only remaining arbitration-eligible player is the one with the most interesting case: Josh Hamilton.  You can get updates on Hamilton's case on the MLBTR ArbTracker.

West Notes: Young, Rockies, Giants, Napoli

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On this day in 1978, the Padres acquired future Hall-of-Famer Gaylord Perry from the Rangers for left-hander Dave Tomlin and $125K.  The trade paid off for San Diego — Perry posted a league-leading 21 wins and captured the NL Cy Young Award.  Perry previously won the AL Cy Young in 1972 with the Indians, making him the first man to win the Cy in both leagues.

Some items from the western side of the baseball world…

  • The Mike Napoli trade makes it seems like the Rangers are still trying to move Michael Young, argues FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.  The Rockies "still view [Young] as a potential answer at second base," Rosenthal hears from sources.  Colorado and Texas discussed Young at the Winter Meetings but talks have been dormant since. 
  • Rosenthal says the Rangers would have to pay some of Young's salary in a trade with the Rockies, plus take Jose Lopez in return to be their new utility infielder.  Troy Renck of the Denver Post says the Rockies "love" Young but the Rockies "are tapped out financially this winter." (Twitter links)  With this in mind, it's hard to see Colorado acquiring Young unless Texas agrees to cover virtually all of the $48MM Young is owed over the next three seasons.
  • The Giants will face a salary crunch next offseason in regards to the rising salaries and arbitration cases of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Brian Wilson, writes MLB.com's Chris Haft.  It seems like Wilson would be the clear odd man out of that quartet given how cheaper closing options can be found elsewhere.  It's possible the club could arrange to keep all four pitchers since a number of veteran contracts are coming off the books over the next two years — Freddy Sanchez, Miguel Tejada and Mark DeRosa (who combine to make $18.5MM in 2011) are only signed through this season, and Aaron Rowand's deal expires after 2012. 
  • MLB.com's Lyle Spencer thinks the fact that Napoli was so quickly flipped from the Blue Jays to the Rangers turns the Jays' swap of Vernon Wells to the Angels into "a garden-variety Toronto salary dump."  Spencer also thinks Napoli will be unhappy with a potential lack of playing time in Texas.  This may be true, but Napoli would've been similarly fighting for at-bats with the Jays, given Toronto's plethora of first base, catcher and DH options.

Blue Jays, Rangers Swap Napoli, Francisco

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Hopefully Mike Napoli's suitcase is still packed. Just four days after acquiring the catcher/first baseman from the Angels, the Blue Jays have sent him back to the AL West. Napoli is heading to the Rangers for Frank Francisco and cash, the teams announced.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the deal (on Twitter) and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (on Twitter) that the Rangers are sending less than $1MM to Toronto.

As Rosenthal points out, Napoli will likely spell Yorvit Torrealba and Matt Treanor behind the plate and see playing time at first base. This likely means the Rangers don't have room for free agent slugger Vladimir Guerrero.

Napoli hit 26 home runs last year, reaching the 20-homer plateau for the third consecutive season. He hit .238/.316/.468 overall, with a career-high 137 strikeouts. The right-handed hitter has a .931 OPS against southpaws in his career, so he is a potential complement to Chris Davis and Mitch Moreland, two left-handed hitting first basemen who hit righties but struggle against lefties.

The Blue Jays acquired Napoli from the Angels in the deal that sent Vernon Wells to Anaheim. J.P. Arencibia and Jose Molina figure to catch regularly for the Blue Jays now that Napoli is headed to the Lone Star State. 

In an odd twist, Francisco joins the same bullpen as Jason Frasor, the only other Type A free agent to accept his team's offer of arbitration this offseason. New additions Jon Rauch and Octavio Dotel join Frasor and Francisco in Alex Anthopoulos' remade bullpen.

Francisco, 31, posted a 3.76 ERA with 10.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 52 2/3 innings for the Rangers last year. He saved 25 games in 2009 before relinquishing the closer's job to rookie Neftali Feliz in 2010.

As MLBTR's Arb Tracker shows, the midpoint for Francisco is $4.19MM and the midpoint for Napoli is $5.7MM, so the Rangers would have been taking on payroll even if they did not send cash to Toronto.

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