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Ten Arbitration Cases To Watch

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There aren't many unsigned arbitration eligible players remaining at this point in the winter, but many of the most high-profile cases remain unresolved. As MLBTR's Arb Tracker shows, 26 arbitration eligible players have yet to agree on their 2011 salaries. Some of them will sign extensions, some will go to hearings and others will avoid arbitration with one-year deals. Here's a primer on ten of the most interesting arbitration eligible players out there:

10. Mike Napoli, Blue Jays - In case arbitration cases weren't complicated enough, the Blue Jays have to defend the Angels' number ($5.3MM) if they go to an arbitration hearing with Napoli, who filed at $6.1MM. The numbers stand, even though the Blue Jays acquired the catcher/first baseman after the Angels exchanged arbitration submissions with him.

9. R.A. Dickey, Mets – Dickey has said he's open to a multiyear deal. We'll soon know whether Mets GM Sandy Alderson wants to extend the knuckleballer or settle on a contract in the $3.35-4.7MM range.

8. Delmon Young, Twins - There's a $1.6MM difference between Young's asking price ($6.25MM) and the Twins' suggested salary ($4.65MM). 

7. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles – As I explained yesterday, Guthrie's case could come down to his durability (175 innings in four consecutive seasons) vs. the fact that comparable starters (John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza) have been harder to hit.

6. Rickie Weeks, Brewers – The Brewers are no longer discussing a multiyear deal with Weeks, who is asking for $7.2MM. The Brewers countered with $4.85MM.

5. Francisco Liriano, Twins - Liriano made $1.6MM last year and posted a 3.62 ERA with 9.4 K/9 in 191 2/3 innings. His representatives at Legacy Sports will argue that he has earned a raise to $5MM, while Bill Smith and the Twins say $3.6MM is more appropriate.

4. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros – Rodriguez's $10.25MM asking price seems high until you realize how few arbitration eligible pitchers have comparable big league experience (the Astros offered $8MM). Rodriguez is just 15 innings shy of 1,000 for his career and his ERA hasn't surpassed 3.60 in any of the past three seasons. The lefty's 985 innings are 246 more than Erik Bedard had after 2008, the season that set Bedard up for a $7.75MM payday. Few arbitration eligible pitchers earn eight-figure deals, but few have as much big league experience and success as Rodriguez.

3. Jered Weaver, Angels - Weaver requested $8.8MM, while the Angels countered with $7.465MM. Either way, the Scott Boras client will be earning substantially more than he did in 2010, when he made $4.625MM.

2. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays – I wrote last fall that Bautista's case comes down to his historic 2010 season vs. the forgettable campaigns he strung together before last year. Click here to read more.

1. Josh Hamilton, Rangers - The Rangers could bring up Hamilton’s injury history and past substance abuse, but they would have to do so subtly, says Michael Vlessides, a veteran arbitration consultant.  “It’s the fine line between how much do you pick on the guy who’s the MVP. If you do it too much, you can lose a lot of credibility” Vlessides said. Beating MVPs in arbitration hearings isn’t easy, but the Pirates beat Barry Bonds after he won his first MVP in 1990 and again the following offseason.

Reaction To The Vernon Wells Trade

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Pundits are already chiming in on the huge Vernon Wells-for Mike Napoli/Juan Rivera trade between the Angels and Blue Jays this evening.  A sampling…

  • Lyle Spencer of MLB.com likes the trade for both teams, noting that the addition of Wells gives the Angels "the makings of a dream outfield."
  • The trade "had the air of desperation" to it, says Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com.  Saxon counts this trade along with the Scott Kazmir deal as cases of the Angels taking "other teams' financial problems off their hands."  On the plus side, Saxon points out that Wells and Torii Hunter are ideal candidates to mentor Mike Trout, the Halos' center fielder of the future.
  • Wells is "absolutely the wrong player right now for the Angels, who have made one the worst desperation moves I can remember," writes Keith Law of ESPN.com.  Law points out that with all of the money Toronto is saving with Wells' contract off the books, the Jays "could become very good, very fast." 
  • Acquiring Wells for Rivera and Napoli added roughly $75MM to the Angels' payroll over the next four years, and Fangraphs' Dave Cameron looks at what else the Halos could've bought with that money this winter.
  • "It's hard to get away from the thought that [the Angels] were better off when they were doing nothing," writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com.  Knobler thinks the Angels are taking a big risk in acquiring Wells, who does nothing to "change an Angels offense that has gotten older and less athletic as the years have gone on."
  • Ken Fidlin of the Toronto Sun looks at how the trade alters the Jays' lineup and thinks Alex Anthopoulos may have to make another deal to fill a few holes.
  • Anthopoulos has only been the Blue Jays' GM since October 2009, but Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star tweets that this deal might already be Anthopoulos' "best deal…ever."  Griffin also tweets that the trade could "be the first step to signing [Jose] Bautista long-term."
  • The Jays and Rays weren't the only AL East team with an interest in Napoli.  The Red Sox looked at Napoli earlier this winter but their interest waned after acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, reports WEEI.com's Rob Bradford.  Boston didn't feel Napoli was a legitimate starting catching option; the club wanted him as a first baseman and emergency catcher.  The Sox put in a waiver claim for Napoli last summer.
  • ESPN.com's Mark Simon looks at some Wells statistics that will trouble Angels fans — the center fielder's odd decline against left-handed pitching and his home/road splits away from the Rogers Centre.

Jays, Angels Swap Vernon Wells For Napoli, Rivera

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So much for the Angels' quiet offseason.  The Angels and Blue Jays have announced a blockbuster trade that sends center fielder Vernon Wells to Los Angeles in exchange for catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli and outfielder Juan Rivera.  Wells waived his no-trade clause to make the deal happen.

Wells, 32, hit .273/.331/.515 with 31 homers for Toronto in 2010, rebounding from an injury-plagued and disappointing stretch from 2007-09 when he managed just a .743 OPS.  The number most associated with Wells, however, is his contract.  The center fielder signed a seven-year, $126MM extension with Toronto in 2006 that runs through 2014.  Wells is slated to earn $23MM next season and $21MM in each of the following three years, though he has the option of opting out of his deal after 2011.

The Halos took a lot of local and national criticism for failing to sign Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre and other major targets this winter, especially since owner Arte Moreno said he was prepared to spend to get his team back into contention in the AL West.  Acquiring Wells will quiet some of those critics, but now the Angels are paying Wells a higher average annual value ($21.5MM) over the next four years than Texas is paying Beltre ($16MM) over five years or Boston is paying Crawford (roughly $20.28MM) over seven years.

Wells presumably takes over in center field for L.A. now that Torii Hunter has been shifted to right, though Hunter (-6.2 UZR/150) was a bit better than Wells (-7.0 UZR/150) in center last season.  Wells' defense did improve last year, however, and the former three-time Gold Glover could approach his old form playing on natural grass at Angel Stadium.  The Angels could also explore putting Wells in left and give Peter Bourjos for the bulk of playing time in center. 

The Angels dealt from a position of strength; along with Napoli, the Halos have backstops Jeff Mathis, Hank Conger and Bobby Wilson on their 40-man roster.

Getting Wells' $86MM salary off the books (especially without sending L.A. any money in return) is a major achievement for Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos, given that the contract was considered perhaps the most untradeable in all of baseball.  The Jays also succeeded in keeping Napoli away from a division rival; the Rays appeared to be targeting the catcher/first baseman earlier this evening.

Napoli hit 26 home runs last year, reaching the 20-homer plateau for the third consecutive season. He hit .238/.316/.468 overall, with a career-high 137 strikeouts. The right-handed hitter has a .931 OPS against southpaws in his career, so he is a potential complement to the lefty-hitting Adam Lind at first base.  The Jays could combine Napoli with Lind and Edwin Encarnacion at first, or with Jose Molina and J.P. Arencibia behind the plate.  Would-be base stealers were successful 73% of the time they tried stealing off of Napoli in 2010; they've been successful 76% of the time in his career.

Napoli, 29, is arbitration eligible this year and eligible for free agency after 2012. He asked for $6.1MM in 2011 and the Angels countered with a $5.3MM offer, as MLBTR's Arb Tracker shows.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes used Napoli as an example of the arbitration process in this October post, predicting his agent could ask for $6-7MM.

Rivera, 32, is set to earn $5.25MM next season, the last year of a three-year, $12.75MM pact he signed with the Halos following the 2008 campaign.  The veteran outfielder has a .272/.323/.448 line over the last two seasons, and has a career .832 OPS against left-handed pitching (though that OPS against lefties dropped to .746 last year).  Rivera could play right field and allow Jose Bautista to move to third base.  Rivera is also a candidate for DH time in Toronto, and could spell Travis Snider against southpaws.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports were the first to report on a Napoli-to-Toronto move this afternoon, and then added the news of Wells' involvement, plus details about the outfielder's physical and waiving of his no-trade clause.  Mike Wilner of Sportsnet Radio The FAN 590 confirmed the Wells-for-Rivera/Napoli trade package in an e-mail to MLBTR and Shi Davidi of the Canadian Press tweeted the news that no money was being exchanged in the deal.

MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post

Rays Targeting Mike Napoli

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The Rays are targeting Angels catcher Mike Napoli as they look to add thump to their lineup, according to Stan McNeal of the Sporting News.

The arbitration eligible 29-year-old could play first base and catch for the Rays, who are also interested in Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez and Vladimir Guerrero. Napoli asked for $6.1MM in 2011 and the Angels countered with a $5.3MM offer, as MLBTR's Arb Tracker shows. That means he'll likely cost at least as much as any of the DH options the Rays are considering.

The Rays currently have John Jaso, Kelly Shoppach and Robinson Chirinos as catching options, while the Angels have similar depth. Along with Napoli, the Halos have backstops Jeff Mathis, Hank Conger and Bobby Wilson on their 40-man roster.

Arbitration Figures: Tuesday

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Today is the deadline for players and teams to submit arbitration figures. Let's keep track of those figures here, with the latest updates on top. You can track all of the players that avoided arbitration today here.

Read more

Renck On Buck, Lopez, Giambi, Mora

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It's already been a busy day for the Rockies what with their declined options on Jeff Francis, Octavio Dotel and (possibly) Miguel Olivo, but the Denver Post's Troy Renck has even more news from the Mile High City.  All of Renck's links are from Twitter…

Mike Napoli And The Arbitration Process

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One area that's always been murky for baseball fans is the process by which salaries for arbitration-eligible players are determined.  Using Angels catcher Mike Napoli as an example, let's attempt to shed some light on arbitration.

The first conclusion I reached when looking into Napoli's comparables is that there aren't any good ones.  Do you know any catchers who went to arbitration for a third time in recent years?  All the good ones were locked up, and all the bad ones were non-tendered.  John Buck might have been a comparable, but the Royals cut him loose before he could go to arbitration a third time.  The only catcher we found who recently went to arbitration a third time was the Tigers' Gerald Laird.  Laird's offensive stats after the '09 season paled in comparision to Napoli's current body of work, so we need to look elsewhere.

If an agent and team are forced to go to an arbitration hearing over a player's salary, the statistics used to make arguments are simple.  For Napoli it might be his .251 batting average, 92 home runs, 249 RBIs, and 246 runs.  He's heading to arbitration for the third time.  He has four years and 151 days of service and will be building off his 2010 salary of $3.6MM.

A baseball source gave me two comparables he thought Napoli's agent Brian Grieper might be able to use: Jorge Cantu after '09 and Xavier Nady after '08.  The criteria for an arbitration comparison talks about service levels, but not positions.  It's already been proven that catchers get extra credit in arbitration for being catchers – in his first year of arbitration, Russell Martin got $3.9MM.  You might expect that salary for a 30 home run, 100 RBI player, not a 13 home run, 69 RBI guy like Martin.  Napoli himself got $2MM in his first arbitration year coming off a season in which he played 78 games.

So even though Napoli falls short of Cantu and Nady in most basic offensive categories, they're workable comparables given the lack of similar catchers.  Napoli has a half-season of playing first base on his resume, so that might strengthen the comparison.  Cantu went from $3.5MM to $6MM, while Nady went from $3.35MM to $6.55MM.  Their raises were between $2.5-3.2MM, or 71-96%.  Napoli's agent might be able to argue for a $6-7MM salary for 2011, unless the Angels find more similar players who were paid less.

Could Napoli be non-tendered by the Angels this winter? One baseball source agreed with my estimate of a 10% chance, while another put it below 5%.  We all agreed Napoli is more likely to be traded than cut loose, though one of them remarked, "I think if they are stuck with him they will wish they would have non-tendered him."  The Angels won't be desperate – they can afford Napoli if no one wants him, but they should be able to find a taker for a 26 home run catcher even if his defense is poorly-regarded.  Keep in mind that even though Napoli is technically under team control through 2012, his 2011 salary could make him a likely non-tender.

Mike Napoli’s Trade Value

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The problem with Mike Napoli, as Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com puts it, is that he "is a 'tweener,' too inconsistent strictly as a hitter, not reliable enough as a catcher."  The Angels might not want to give such a "tweener" an arbitration raise above the $3.6MM that Napoli earned this season, which is why there have been rumors that Los Angeles will try to move Napoli over the winter.  

Given the dearth of power-hitting catchers, many teams would be willing to overlook Napoli's defensive shortcomings for a catcher who has 92 homers in 1778 career plate appearances and a career .839 OPS.  As an everyday player, however, Napoli has his limitations, many of which were on display this season.  Napoli has received a career-high 484 plate appearances thanks to his taking over the lion's share of time at first base after Kendry Morales was lost for the season in May. 

His power notwithstanding, Napoli has an underwhelming .247/.332/.488 slash line entering Friday's action.  These numbers are largely due to the fact that the right-handed hitting Napoli struggles against right-handed pitching; he has a .704 OPS vs. righties this year, as opposed to a whopping 1.082 OPS against southpaws.  (Napoli's career OPS splits are .798 against righties and .962 versus lefties.)  If put back into his comfort zone of facing primarily left-handed pitching, Napoli can be a force.  If a team has a left-handed hitting, defensive-minded platoon partner at catcher, Napoli is an ideal complement.

The catching market is always tough to predict in advance, but here are a few potential trade partners for the Halos…

* Florida.  The Marlins are known to be looking for catchers, though Napoli may be too expensive for their liking.

* New York.  Left-handed hitting Josh Thole will be the Mets' starter next season, so Napoli could be brought in to complement both Thole and another lefty bat (Ike Davis) at first.

* Chicago.  As with the Mets, the White Sox will have a youngster (Tyler Flowers) taking over the starting job.  This is presuming the Sox won't bring back A.J. Pierzynski, though Chicago could also maybe have a hole at first depending on if Paul Konerko signs elsewhere or retires.

* Texas.  Napoli could finally give the Rangers some stability behind the plate, though it's hard to see L.A. making a deal with their division rivals.

* Boston.  The Red Sox made a waiver claim on Napoli in August before the Angels pulled him back, and will need a catcher if Victor Martinez leaves as a free agent.

* Baltimore.  Speaking of Martinez, Napoli could be the Orioles' catcher/first base/DH backup plan should the team's pursuit of Martinez fall short.

If Napoli was dealt, Los Angeles would be left with Jeff Mathis and rookie Hank Conger behind the plate.  Conger, LAA's first-round pick in the 2006 draft, has an .825 OPS in 1705 minor league plate appearances and was rated the 84th overall prospect in baseball by Baseball America's preseason rankings.  Mathis is entering his second arbitration year after earning $1.3MM in 2010, but has had an overall poor season (as outlined by Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times).  The Angels could go into 2011 with a totally overhauled catching corps should they trade Napoli, non-tender Mathis and acquire a new veteran backstop to play alongside Conger.

Stark On Manny, Rockies, Napoli, Phillies

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An official of a team that once had interest in Manny Ramirez tells Jayson Stark of ESPN.com that he doesn’t think the slugger has much left. Ramirez, who hits free agency this offseason, hasn’t picked up an extra base hit since joining the White Sox and the official says that’s “a major indication he might not have a whole lot left in the tank." Here are the rest of Stark’s rumors.

  • There are indications that the Rockies wouldn’t offer Jeff Francis more than a modest one-year deal with incentives. The Rockies seem likely to decline the $7MM option they have for the lefty.
  • One GM says any team with interest in Jorge de la Rosa needs to do its homework. "He could be [the next] Oliver Perez," the GM said.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes drew that comparison in an April article, but noted De Le Rosa's higher groundball rate. 
  • There are “vibes” that the Angels will make Mike Napoli available this winter.
  • The Phillies could combine Domonic Brown with a right-handed hitting veteran, but GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says that’s just one possible solution. Brown doesn't have a guaranteed everyday job on next year’s team, even if Jayson Werth signs elsewhere, as expected.
  • One scout who covered Royals prospect and former Miami Dolphins quarterback Pat White in high school, says we shouldn’t be surprised if Dayton Moore’s gamble pays off and White’s athleticism translates well to pro baseball.

Odds & Ends: Manny, Garland, Fredi Gonzalez

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Links for Wednesday, as Manny Ramirez finishes a 1-for-3 White Sox debut with a hit-by-pitch…

  • ESPN's Buster Olney feels that a team interested in Manny this winter should dangle an incentive-based contract with a base salary of $1MM or less.  But keep in mind that last offseason Scott Boras got $3.3MM and $2MM guarantees for Xavier Nady and Alex Cora, respectively.
  • The Nationals and Padres were the only teams to pursue Jon Garland during the offseason, the righty told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Garland chose the Padres because he liked the ballpark and felt they were closer to competing.
  • Fredi Gonzalez tops Cubs GM Jim Hendry's managerial wish list currently, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.
  • Taiwanese news reports indicate that the Yankees determined their deal with Tzu-Wei Lin is invalid, reports the Taiwan Baseball blog.  The 16-year-old shortstop might be able to get more money from another team after he finishes high school. 
  • Mike Napoli puts his chances of being an Angel next season at 50-50, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times.
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