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Nick Lodolo

Nick Lodolo Reportedly Won’t Return This Season

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Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo is done for the season, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The southpaw has been on the injured list due to a stress reaction in his left tibia and it appears he won’t be able to heal up in time to rejoin the club.

It’s been a frustrating season for Lodolo, who was hoped to be part of a strong one-two atop the Cincinnati rotation this year alongside Hunter Greene. Both pitchers were first-round draft picks and highly-touted prospects before debuting with strong results in 2022. He tossed 103 1/3 innings over 19 starts last year with a 3.66 earned run average, 29.7% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build on that here in 2023. He made just seven starts with a 6.29 ERA before landing on the injured list with a leg injury. It was initially described as left calf tendinitis, though it was later diagnosed as a stress reaction in his left tibia and he was placed in a walking boot. He was expected back in August and began a rehab assignment but recently was diagnosed with an additional stress reaction in his tibia, which will keep him from coming back again this year.

It will ultimately go down as a mostly lost season for Lodolo, an unfortunate development for him and the club. The Reds have surged out of their rebuild this year, with various rookies debuting and helping the club emerge as legitimate contenders. That’s been thanks largely to a strong group of position players and in spite of a weak pitching staff. The Reds are 10th in the majors in terms of runs scored but have also allowed the eighth-most runs. Their rotation ERA of 5.30 is better than only the Rockies and the A’s.

In addition to Lodolo’s injury issues, just about every other starting pitcher has gone on the injured list or struggled at some point, with Graham Ashcraft the only pitcher on the staff to crack 100 innings so far this season. Despite all of that, the Reds are just one game back of a playoff spot but could have perhaps been in better position with just a little bit better luck in terms of pitcher health.

For Lodolo personally, he’s missed out on a chance to continue developing at the major league level and help his club. He’ll now go into the offseason with an uncertain status and could perhaps face workload concerns next year. Between his seven starts and then his truncated rehab, he only tossed 41 2/3 innings this year. His highest tally as a professional was the 116 he threw last year between the majors and the minors.

Without Lodolo, the Reds will go into the final month of their postseason push with a rotation that currently consists of Greene, Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson and Ben Lively, with Lyon Richardson, Levi Stoudt and others on the 40-man and in the minors as depth.

Nick Lodolo Headed For Second Opinion On Left Leg After Additional Stress Reaction

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Reds starter Nick Lodolo is headed for a second opinion after being diagnosed with another stress reaction in his left tibia, manager David Bell informed the club’s beat (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). With less than six weeks remaining in the regular season, it seems possible his year is in jeopardy.

Left leg issues have hampered Lodolo since May. He was placed on the injured list with what the club initially called a calf strain. They later modified the diagnosis to a tibia stress reaction which kept him in a walking boot for upwards of six weeks. He was able to shed the boot by the start of July and begin ramping up with a goal of returning to an MLB mound by late August.

Lodolo had made three minor league rehab starts over the past two weeks. During a Triple-A appearance on Sunday, the issue flared back up. Even if Lodolo can work back from the injury without surgery, he’s obviously no longer in position to return from the injured list this month.

It’s subpar timing for the Reds, to say the least. Cincinnati is half a game back of the Giants and D-Backs for the NL’s final Wild Card spot. They’re in third place in the NL Central, four games behind the division-leading Brewers.

The biggest question is whether their rotation can hold up enough to keep their surprising postseason bid alive. Cincinnati welcomed Hunter Greene back from the 60-day IL over the weekend, but he was tattooed by the Blue Jays in his first start in two months. Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft and Brett Kennedy comprise the rest of the current rotation. Abbott has been excellent, while Ashcraft and Williamson have found their footing in the second half after rough starts. Yet Kennedy is a 29-year-old with 38 2/3 career big league innings, while a recent injury to Ben Lively has further thinned an already tenuous starting staff.

Lodolo had been hit hard in his first seven starts of the season, allowing a 6.29 ERA over 34 1/3 frames. The former #7 overall pick had a strong campaign when healthy a year ago, working to a 3.66 ERA while striking out just under 30% of opposing hitters in his first 19 MLB starts.

Reds’ Reiver Sanmartin Undergoes UCL Surgery

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Reds reliever Reiver Sanmartin underwent surgery to repair his UCL earlier this month, the team informed reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic). It isn’t clear if he underwent a full Tommy John procedure or something like the modified internal brace surgery, but it appears as if his season is over.

Sanmartin is already on the 60-day injured list. He landed on the shelf at the start of May with a stress reaction in his elbow. Apparently, there was also ligament damage that needed to be corrected. Assuming he’s done for the season, he’ll remain on the 60-day IL through year’s end.

The 27-year-old has pitched in parts of three seasons with Cincinnati. He owns a 5.77 ERA through 82 2/3 career frames. Sanmartin has induced grounders at a lofty 53.5% clip but posted worse than average strikeout and walk numbers. He’s controllable through 2028, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Cincinnati waived him at the start of the offseason rather than carry him on the 40-man roster throughout the winter.

The Reds provided updates on a few other injured pitchers (via Rosecrans). Hunter Greene will begin a minor league rehab stint next weekend; the club hopes he’ll be ready for the majors by August 20. Nick Lodolo is targeting an MLB return at the end of next month, beginning a rehab stint at a similar time as Greene. Vladimir Gutierrez and Tejay Antone are each beginning rehab work of their own after missing the entire season to date.

NL Central Notes: Lodolo, Lively, Holderman

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Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo got some good news, per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The southpaw has been in a walking boot due to a tibia stress reaction in his left leg but the boot is now off and he’s been cleared to ramp up.

That’s not to say that he’s close to a return, as Goldsmith says Lodolo is on a similar timeline to righty Hunter Greene, who isn’t expected back until August. But it’s at least a good sign that things are progressing.

The Reds have surged to the top of the National League Central, currently tied with the Brewers at 43-38. But that’s mostly been fueled by their offense and in spite of a rickety rotation. Lodolo and Greene are two of six starters currently on the injured list, which has obviously had a negative effect on the results. The Reds’ starters have a collective 5.91 ERA this year, better than just the Athletics and Rockies.

Lodolo struggled to a 6.29 ERA this year before landing on the IL but had a much stronger 3.66 mark in his debut last year. Getting him and Greene healthy could give the club a huge boost for the stretch run as they try to take advantage of their surprising return to contention.

Some other notes from around the division…

  • Sticking with the Reds, their rotation could get another reinforcement, even earlier than the returns of Lodolo and Greene. Goldsmith relays that right-hander Ben Lively could be back before the All-Star break to make a start. The right-hander returned to the majors this year after a few years in Korea and has been doing well. He posted a 4.11 ERA through 46 innings before landing on the IL due to a right pectoral muscle strain. He struck out 23.1% of opponents against a 6.7% walk rate while getting grounders at a 38.8% clip. The All-Star break is just over a week away, so it seems he’ll be able to come back shortly and get at least one more outing under his belt prior to the layoff. The club’s rotation currently consists of Graham Ashcraft, Levi Stoudt, Brandon Williamson, Andrew Abbott and Luke Weaver but Abbott is the only one out of those with an ERA below 5.82.
  • The Pirates got an important arm back today, with right-hander Colin Holderman reinstated from the injured list. He missed the past two weeks with right wrist inflammation. Fellow righty Cody Bolton was optioned in a corresponding move. Holderman has emerged as a key piece of the club’s bullpen, posting a 4.01 ERA over 26 appearances this year. He’s struck out 25.7% of hitters while walking just 6.4% of them and getting grounders at a 48.6% clip. He’s lived up to his name by securing 12 holds and one save, indicating he’s moved up into higher leverage work. The Bucs have alternated hot and cold all year and are currently riding a three-game win streak to get their record to 38-42. Despite that subpar mark, they’re only 4.5 games off the lead with no one running away with the division. Each game will take on magnified importance with the trade deadline now just a month away and having Holderman back is a nice little boost for Pittsburgh.

Nick Lodolo Likely Sidelined Into August

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Reds starter Nick Lodolo has been out of action since May 6 due to a left leg issue. Initially announced as calf tendinitis, the injury was later revised to a more concerning tibia stress reaction.

Lodolo has spent the better part of a month in a walking boot. Follow-up imaging this afternoon confirmed he’d need at least another two weeks in the boot, skipper David Bell told the media (relayed by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). He’ll go for additional testing at that point.

According to Bell, Lodolo would likely need four to six weeks from the time he’s out of the walking boot before he’d be ready for game action. The long layoff will require him to build arm strength back via a throwing program. At the earliest, that timeline would suggest an early-August return to Great American Ball Park. Further delays or the longer end of that expected throwing program could keep him out well into the month.

Lodolo is already on the 60-day injured list. He’s eligible to return around the All-Star Break but clearly won’t be ready by that point. It has been a frustrating season for the second-year hurler. He’s started seven games and pitched to a 6.29 ERA over 34 1/3 innings. The former seventh overall pick had also spent a couple months on the IL last season — in that case due to a lower back strain — but impressed with a 3.66 ERA over 103 1/3 frames as a rookie.

The Reds weren’t generally expected to compete this season. That’d have been especially tough to envision if one could’ve predicted Lodolo’s injury woes, but Cincinnati’s influx of young infield talent has helped them outperform most preseason forecasts. The Reds sit at 34-35, just two games behind the Pirates in a lackluster NL Central. If Cincinnati can hang in the playoff picture deep into the summer, Lodolo’s return could take on extra importance for a club currently giving regular rotation run to each of Luke Weaver, Ben Lively and Brandon Williamson.

Reds Select T.J. Hopkins

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The Reds announced this afternoon that they have selected the contract of outfielder T.J. Hopkins. In corresponding moves, outfielder TJ Friedl was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain, while left-hander Nick Lodolo was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Hopkins, 26, was a ninth round pick by the Reds in the 2019 draft. Hopkins has largely hit well since getting his start in full-season ball at Double-A in 2021, with a .264/.339/.452 slash line in 717 plate appearances at the level. That production earned him a promotion to Triple-A late last season, where he posted a .255/.320/.436 slash line good for a league-average wRC+ of exactly 100 in 25 games, with a somewhat concerning 28.2% strikeout rate, the highest of his career at any level.

Returning to the Triple-A level this season, Hopkins has broken out in a big way as the outfielder has obliterated Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .341/.437/.540 slash line in 50 games, good for a wRC+ of 150 while his strikeout rate has dropped to a more palatable 24.6%. That fantastic performance has earned Hopkins his first chance in the big leagues, where he’s the next youngster promoted in a Reds youth movement that already included the likes of Matt McLain and Spencer Steer.

While most of his experience is in the outfield corners, Hopkins figures to replace the club’s center fielder in the lineup as Friedl heads to the IL with a hamstring strain. After two partial seasons as a roughly league average bat with the Reds in 2021 and 2022, Friedl has broken out in a big way so far this year, with a .246/.320/.434 slash line and strong defense in center field. That breakout will be put on hold now, however, at least for the time being. In the meantime, Hopkins figures to mix and match in the outfield alongside Jake Fraley, Stuart Fairchild, Jose Barrero, and Will Benson.

Lodolo’s placement on the 60-day IL hardly comes as a surprise after an MRI revealed a stress reaction in his left tibia last month. While Lodolo’s initial timetable for return was around a month after his mid-May injury, the stress reaction seemed likely to extend his timeline fro return, and his placement on the 60-day IL confirms that much, as he will now be out through the All Star break at minimum. After a fantastic rookie season where he posted a 3.66 ERA in 103 1/3 innings, Lodolo struggled early in his sophomore campaign, with a 6.29 ERA across seven starts prior to his placement on the injured list.

Nick Lodolo Diagnosed With Stress Reaction In Tibia

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Reds starter Nick Lodolo was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his left tibia earlier this week, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’ll be in a walking boot and go for another MRI in a couple weeks.

Lodolo was already placed on the 15-day injured list over the weekend. At the time, the club announced his injury as calf tendinitis. The Reds provided a one-month return timetable on Sunday, though it seems likely the revelation of the stress reaction will delay his return further. Manager David Bell told the club’s beat a more definitive recovery timeline won’t be clear until Lodolo’s follow-up imaging two weeks from now.

The 25-year-old southpaw is among the most important players in the organization. Lodolo and fellow top prospect Hunter Greene both made the season-opening rotation in 2022. Each impressed as rookies, enough so in Greene’s case the Reds signed him to the second-largest extension for a pitcher with between one and two years of major league service. Lodolo hasn’t inked the same kind of deal, though his camp reportedly had some conversations with Cincinnati brass about that possibility last month.

It had been a mixed season for Lodolo even prior to the injury. He’s been tagged for a 6.29 ERA over 34 1/3 innings through his first seven starts. That’s largely attributable to a staggering 10 home runs allowed (2.62 HR/9). The home run ball wasn’t an issue for Lodolo during his debut season, though, and he’s shown strong strikeout and walk numbers during year two. The TCU product has fanned 28.3% of opponents behind a strong 12.9% swinging strike percentage while cutting his walk rate from 8.8% to 6%.

Lodolo, Greene and Graham Ashcraft had been locked into rotation spots if healthy. With Lodolo out for a notable chunk of time, Cincinnati called up Brandon Williamson to make his MLB debut yesterday. Lodolo’s college teammate fared well in his first start, throwing 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball at Coors Field. Nightengale writes that Williamson is expected to remain in the rotation, joining Greene, Ashcraft and Luke Weaver.

For the fifth spot, the Reds appear likely to turn to righty Ben Lively. The 31-year-old has come out of the bullpen twice, combining for 5 1/3 frames, since being selected to replace Luis Cessa on the roster a little over a week ago. Nightengale writes that Lively will get the start on Friday against the Yankees, pushing him into the role he manned for Triple-A Louisville. He’d started four of five appearances with the Bats, working to a 2.33 ERA despite a middling 15.2% strikeout rate. His start will be his first at the big league level since 2018, when he took the ball five times for the Phillies.

Reds Place Nick Lodolo On 15-Day IL

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The Reds announced a flurry of roster moves this morning, as the club placed left-hander Nick Lodolo and right-hander Casey Legumina on the 15-day injured list and optioned right-hander Levi Stoudt to Triple-A Louisville. To replace the aforementioned trio on the roster, the club recalled right-hander Kevin Herget while selecting the contracts of right-handers Alan Busenitz and Silvino Bracho. To clear 40-man roster space for Busenitz and Bracho, the club has transferred right-hander Connor Overton and left-hander Reiver Sanmartin to the 60-day IL. As noted by Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Lodolo is expected to miss at least four weeks of action.

The most significant news here is that regarding Lodolo, as the 25-year-old lefty will now miss at least a month of the 2023 campaign. A long time top prospect for the Reds, Lodolo was as good as advertised in his first taste of big league action last year, pitching to a solid 3.66 ERA (123 ERA+) and a 3.90 FIP over 103 1/3 innings of work across 19 starts. Unfortunately for the Reds, Lodolo wasn’t able to carry that success over into the 2023 campaign, as the lefty has posted an ugly 6.29 ERA and 5.82 FIP in seven starts this season. Lodolo figures to rest his ailing calf and get healthy in order to try and get his season on track when he returns from the IL this summer.

With Lodolo out of action for the time being, the Reds have just three regular starters in their rotation: Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, and Luke Weaver. With no announced starter for Tuesday’s game against Colorado, the club could look to add another starter to the roster in the coming days, though with ten relievers on the roster at the moment, a bullpen game is another option the club could explore.

Joining Lodolo in exiting the active roster is a pair of rookies: Legumina, 25, heads to the IL while Stoudt, 25, heads to Triple-A. Legumina has posted a decent 4.35 ERA in 10 1/3 innings of work out of the Reds bullpen this season, while Stoudt struggled to a 10.29 ERA in seven innings over two appearances, including one start.

Replacing the trio on the roster is a group of right-handers. Herget, 32, impressed earlier this season in 10 2/3 innings of work out of the Reds bullpen, posting a 1.69 ERA in five appearances. The 32-year-old Busenitz, meanwhile, has yet to make an appearance in a Reds uniform. The righty sports a 4.58 ERA in 57 innings of work in the big leagues, all of which came as a member of the Twins across the 2017 and 2018 campaigns. Since then, he’s spent four seasons pitching in Japan, with a 2.83 ERA in 155 2/3 innings of work. He landed a minor league deal with Cincinnati in December, and has impressed against Triple-A pitching so far, with a 1.80 ERA in 15 innings.

The 30-year-old Bracho, meanwhile, is now poised to make the first appearance of his seventh season in the major leagues. The righty reliever made his debut in 2015 with the Diamondbacks, and spent most of his career with Arizona before joining the Braves in 2022. Bracho was non-tendered by the club this past offseason and signed a minor league deal with the Reds during Spring Training. Overall, Bracho has a career 4.88 ERA in 94 innings at the big league level.

Reds Have Discussed Extension With Nick Lodolo

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The Reds locked down a hopeful core member for at least the next six years earlier this week when signing righty Hunter Greene to a $53MM extension, and they’re hopeful of doing so with another promising young arm. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Cincinnati has been discussing an extension with left-hander Nick Lodolo as well.

There are plenty of similarities between Lodolo and Greene. Both are former top-10 overall draft picks — Greene No. 2 in 2017, Lodolo No. 7 in 2019 — and both entered the 2023 season with exactly one year of Major League service after debuting for the Reds early in the 2022 season. Both pitchers were widely regarded as top-100 prospects in the sport before making their respective Major League debuts last year.

That’s not to suggest that Lodolo should or will sign on for identical terms, but the framework is likely one that could interest the Reds. Both Greene ($7.23MM) and Lodolo ($5.4MM) signed life-changing signing bonuses out of the draft, arguably creating less urgency for either pitcher to sign a long-term contract. That didn’t stop Greene from doing so, but every player’s personal motivations, appetite for risk, etc. are different, of course.

It’s not clear when or whether talks between the Reds and Lodolo’s reps at Excel Sports Management will gain steam, but the team’s interest in hammering out a long-term contract shouldn’t come as a great surprise. Lodolo made the transition from the upper minors to MLB rather seamlessly in 2022, pitching 103 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA ball in his debut campaign. His 29.7% strikeout rate trailed only his own teammate, Greene, and breakout Braves righty Spencer Strider among rookie starters last season. Loosening the parameters and looking at all MLB pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched in ’22, Lodolo ranked 14th out of 124 in terms of strikeout rate.

Lodolo paired that innate ability to miss bats with a solid 8.8% walk rate and an above-average 46% grounder rate. Were it not for a lower back strain that wiped out all of May and June for the left-hander, Lodolo might well have factored into NL Rookie of the Year voting. The aforementioned Strider and his teammate Michael Harris were always the runaway favorites, but given the absolute tear on which Lodolo finished out the season, a larger number of innings might’ve had him in the running.

While Lodolo was hit hard in two of his first three starts off the injured list last season, he found his stride over his final 13 trips to the hill. In that time, he pitched 77 innings of 2.92 ERA ball with a 30% strikeout rate — including a 2.48 ERA and 35% strikeout rate in the season’s final month. At the very least, with better health, he might’ve wound up in third on the ballot rather than his eventual sixth-place finish.

In 2023, Lodolo was sharp through three turns, with a scoreless, seven-inning, 12-strikeout gem in Philadelphia standing out as the headliner. The Rays trounced him for eight runs earlier this week, ballooning his season ERA to 4.98 overall. However, Lodolo’s strikeout and ground-ball rates are near mirror images of his 2022 marks, and his walk rate is actually down two percentage points in 2023. The 25-year-old southpaw’s young career has produced an overall 3.89 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 46.2% ground-ball rate in 125 innings, giving the Reds’ front office plenty of reason to believe he can join Greene and righty Graham Ashcraft as cornerstones of the current rebuild.

As it stands, the Reds control Lodolo through the end of the 2027 season, and he’d be eligible for arbitration following the 2025 season. He still has all three minor league option years remaining, so it’s technically possible that those trajectories could be impacted if he struggles for an extended period and is optioned to Triple-A. Aside from a couple of hiccups (e.g. that clunker against the Rays), however, there’s not much in Lodolo’s first 23 big league starts that suggests he needs any additional seasoning in the upper minors.

Michael Harris II Wins National League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Braves center fielder Michael Harris II has won the National League Rookie of the Year award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. He was followed by teammate Spencer Strider and Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan in second and third place, respectively.

This has long been viewed as a two-horse race, with the pair of Atlanta players separating themselves from the pack. Harris, a third-round pick in 2019, emerged as one of the game’s more interesting prospects with a breakout 2021 showing in High-A. He began this year in Double-A but quickly proved too advanced for the level, tearing apart opposing pitchers through 43 games. The Braves made the bold decision to skip him over Triple-A entirely, installing him as the everyday center fielder upon calling him to the big leagues in late May.

Harris stepped in excellently for the defending World Series winners. The left-handed hitter posted  a .297/.339/.514 line through his first 441 big league plate appearances. He didn’t draw many walks, but Harris hit nearly .300 while connecting on 19 home runs and swiping 20 bases. He also played excellent center field defense, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him as eight runs above average with the glove. Statcast estimated he was six runs above par, and the 21-year-old now looks like one of the most promising two-way position players in the game.

Strider, meanwhile, looks like one of the sport’s top young arms. A fourth-round draftee in 2020, he immediately outperformed that fairly modest selection. The right-hander earned a brief big league audition late last season and began this year in the MLB bullpen. By mid-May, he’d been moved to the rotation, and his excellent fastball-slider combination continued to befuddle big league hitters. The 24-year-old combined for 131 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball between the bullpen and the starting staff, striking out an incredible 38.3% of opponents along the way.

A top-two finish in Rookie of the Year balloting takes on significance beyond its mere prestige value now, thanks to provisions in the new collective bargaining agreement. The CBA contained measures designed to counteract service time manipulation through the so-called “prospect promotion incentive.” Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year.

Harris meets all three criteria and will thus earn a full service year, although he inked an eight-year contract extension midseason that negates any chance he’ll ever proceed through arbitration and pushed back his path to free agency. The full service year will have a small move in Harris’ eventual push for 10 years in the majors and its associated pension and possible no-trade benefits. Strider earned a full service year by playing 172-plus days on the MLB roster regardless, although he also later signed an extension.

The second element of the PPI won’t come into play in the National League. A player who meets the aforementioned prospect criteria, entered the year with less than 60 days of service and spent enough time on the MLB roster to earn a full service year independent of the awards finish would net their team a bonus draft choice with a top-two finish. Harris qualified for the prospect criteria but was not on the MLB roster long enough for a full service year without the award bonus. Strider did accrue the service time element but did not appear on a preseason Top 100 at any of MLB Pipeline, BA or ESPN. Unlike the Mariners, who received an extra selection based on Julio Rodríguez’s AL ROY win, the Braves will not accrue a bonus pick.

Harris picked up 22 of 30 first-place nods, with Strider collecting the other eight votes. Harris and Strider were 1-2 in some order on 29 of 30 ballots, with Reds closer Alexis Díaz earning the other second-place vote. Donovan earned a third-place finish with a .281/.394/.379 showing over 468 plate appearances in a utility capacity for St. Louis; he grabbed 22 third-place votes. Arizona outfielder Jake McCarthy, Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo and Pittsburgh shortstop Oneil Cruz joined Díaz in picking up stray support.

Full vote breakdown available here.

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