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Nolan Arenado

Braves Have Gauged Asking Price On Nolan Arenado

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2019 at 9:05am CDT

The Braves are among the teams that have inquired with the Rockies about a potential Nolan Arenado trade, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Braves fans should pump the brakes before running too wild with scenarios just yet, though. It stands to reason that the majority of contending clubs have at least gauged the asking price — front offices wouldn’t be doing their jobs if they didn’t at least explore even a fringe chance at adding a superstar-caliber player — and Morosi notes that there haven’t been any recent discussions between the two teams.

Frankly, it seems a stretch to imagine that the Braves would take on Arenado and the whopping seven years and $234MM remaining on his contract. Atlanta’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll came back in 2017 ($122.6MM), but they’re already projected to top that by $15MM or more. Add in a $35MM salary for Arenado in 2020, and the Braves would be shattering their previous spending thresholds by $50MM or more. Even if the Rockies were willing to include cash in the deal and/or take another contract back in exchange, adding Arenado would demolish payroll precedents in Atlanta.

Beyond that, Arenado is only about 10 months younger than Anthony Rendon, whose seven-year $245MM deal closely resembles what’s left on Arenado’s contract, and the Braves were never serious bidders for Rendon. Numerous reports have also indicated Atlanta’s reluctance to offer Josh Donaldson a fourth guaranteed year at a lower annual rate than either Arenado or Rendon is earning. It’s true that a four-year deal would run through Donaldson’s age-37 season, whereas Arenado is “only” signed through age 35, but the discrepancy is nonetheless notable.

When exploring any Arenado trade scenarios, it’s also worth emphasizing his full no-trade clause and the fact that an acquiring team will be wary of the opt-out provision in his contract. A perennial MVP candidate, Arenado can walk away from the final five years and $164MM of his contract and enter the open market. He’d be leaving a $32.8MM annual salary on the table to do so, but he’d be opting out in advance of only his age-31 season in 2022. It’s not out of the question that he could land a six- or even a seven-year deal in free agency if he continues on as an elite performer. And if he unexpectedly begins to decline sooner than that, an acquiring team would then be stuck paying nearly $33MM per season for said decline phase.

The Braves have a deep farm system that is rich in pitching prospects and position players alike, so they have the young talent to acquire virtually any player who is made available by another team. Atlanta would also have an obvious hole at third base if Donaldson signs elsewhere. Be that as it may, acquiring Arenado would require heretofore unseen levels of spending from ownership and would surely cost the Braves a sizable amount of young talent as well. If Donaldson departs, the Braves would (speculatively) make a very sensible trade partner for the Cubs and Kris Bryant, but it’s hard to see Arenado suiting up at SunTrust Park in 2020.

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Atlanta Braves Colorado Rockies Nolan Arenado

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NL Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Mets, Arenado, Hernandez

By Dylan A. Chase | December 21, 2019 at 10:30pm CDT

A fourth guaranteed year has been said to be the lynchpin in any potential deal for third baseman Josh Donaldson this winter, leaving interested teams in a precarious spot as they play chicken with the veteran’s representatives. The Braves, in particular, could be in something of a no-mans-land if they miss out on Donaldson, as they would lose their incumbent starter and potentially see a league rival (Nationals, Dodgers) strengthen their lineup at the same time. As David O’Brien of The Athletic sees it, the team’s two recourses in the event of a Donaldson departure may be the exploration of trades for either Kris Bryant of the Cubs or Nolan Arenado of the Rockies—and neither of those options is entirely realistic in the writer’s eyes. For Bryant, his ongoing grievance with the Cubs adds a fair bit of uncertainty for any interested trade partner. While the Cubs are, as O’Brien puts it, “widely expected” to win that grievance hearing and maintain two years of control on Bryant, it’s not impossible that the tide could swing in Bryant’s favor and leave him with just one year left.

When it comes to Arenado, O’Brien seems merely skeptical that Atlanta would be willing to swallow a contract of that magnitude, considering that the $35MM annual salaries in Arenado’s deal would more than double the highest salary that Braves star Ronald Acuna will make in the final years of the eight-year, $100MM extension he signed in April. Then again, Donaldson has reportedly given the Braves the right of last refusal on any potential deal, so it may well be that Atlanta ends up viewing a four-year Donaldson deal as the most reasonable course of action. Given that Washington and Minnesota have reportedly made four-year offers already, this may be a case of a player waiting for his preferred team to blink.

More from around the NL…

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post sees no such obstacle standing in the way of an Arenado-Mets pairing. As Sherman notes, the team’s ability to save as much as $23.5MM in the Yoenis Cespedes adjustment may give them some crucial breathing room to entertain a truly franchise-altering blockbuster. Additionally, the club may be well served to counter the Yankees Gerrit Cole addition with a headline-grabbing move of their own, and Steve Cohen’s continued negotiations with the Sterling partners to become the majority owner of the Mets may offer them some added financial backbone in the near future. Still, a deal for Arenado would realistically cost the team not just payroll space, but also a talented young player of the Jeff McNeil variety—not exactly an easy price to pay in its own right.
  • Nationals organizational outfielder Yadiel Hernandez will be extended an invite to big league Spring Training in recognition of his excellent 2019 season in Triple-A, reports Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post. Dougherty adds that Hernandez will get at least a “small look” in camp, after a ’19 campaign in which the 32-year-old hit .323/.406/.604 with 33 home runs. It’s not exactly common to see 32-year-old rookies, but there does come a point where, juiced ball caveats aside, a player’s performance demands at least a trial run at the highest level. Plus, Hernandez did come over with a fair amount of recognition as an international signing out of Cuba in advance of the 2017 season. As things stand now, the champs will enter 2020 with Michael A. Taylor and Andrew Stevenson as bench outfielders.
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Atlanta Braves New York Mets Notes Washington Nationals Josh Donaldson Nolan Arenado Yadiel Hernandez

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Rangers Have Interest In Nolan Arenado

By Mark Polishuk | December 19, 2019 at 5:15pm CDT

5:15PM: The Rangers’ calls about Arenado are more “due diligence” for now, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports (Twitter link), though Texas is legitimately interested in the third baseman.

4:21PM: The Rangers missed out on Anthony Rendon, and reportedly have stepped back from the race to sign Josh Donaldson.  However, Texas is still on the lookout for a big-ticket addition at third base, and the club has been in talks with the Rockies about Nolan Arenado, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required).

Texas isn’t the only interested party, as the Rockies have spoken to multiple teams about Arenado’s services.  While the Cardinals and Dodgers aren’t specifically cited as two of those other clubs, Rosenthal notes that St. Louis and Los Angeles each “have a longstanding interest in Arenado,” though the Dodgers are doubtful that Arenado would be sent to one of Colorado’s division rivals.

Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has unofficially confirmed that he has been listening to offers for Arenado, though of course, that is markedly different from actively exploring trades of the franchise player.  As Rosenthal observes, “many in the industry are skeptical it [an Arenado trade] will happen this offseason” due to several complicating elements — Arenado has a full no-trade clause, he is owed $234MM over through the 2026 season, and Arenado has the right to opt out of that deal following the 2021 campaign.

It doesn’t make for a long list of teams that could potentially fit as a trade partner, especially since “Arenado effectively controls the process” via his no-trade clause.  It can’t hurt for Bridich to listen to offers for the sake of due diligence, especially since the third base market will shift again once Donaldson comes off the board.

In the Rangers’ case, much of their offseason work has been focused on upgrading their pitching staff, adding Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson, and Jordan Lyles to join incumbents Mike Minor and Lance Lynn.  More work still needs to be done on the position player side, however, and Texas has created some room by moving Nomar Mazara and Delino DeShields from its crowded outfield mix.  If the Rangers are indeed no longer pursuing Donaldson, it stands to reason that they could be looking for a lower-key solution at third base (an in-house option like Nick Solak or a stopgap free agent) and instead be looking to spend on another outfield bat.  Nicholas Castellanos is reportedly been on the Rangers’ list of targets, and the team also had interest in Marcell Ozuna earlier in the offseason.

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Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers St. Louis Cardinals Texas Rangers Anthony Rendon Nolan Arenado

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Trade/FA Rumblings: Arenado, Keuchel, Cards, Twins, Marlins, Mets, Correa

By Connor Byrne | December 14, 2019 at 12:41am CDT

The Rockies are reportedly willing to listen to offers for their franchise player, third baseman Nolan Arenado. General manager Jeff Bridich all but confirmed that’s the case, Nick Groke of The Athletic relays (subscription link).

“Look, this is the time of year where those conversations happen,” Bridich said. “This is the time of year where we at least listen to teams and go, ‘OK, well, should we try to investigate and put something together.’ We have people to do those sorts of things. I can’t sit here and say, ‘No, never, ever.’ Some of this stuff started back at the trade deadline and it’s kind of ongoing.”

Bridich is still of the opinion the Rockies, as presently constructed, can push for a championship in 2020, Groke notes. Arenado, of course, plays an irreplaceable role in that belief. However, with so few above-average third basemen currently available (Josh Donaldson’s a free agent and Kris Bryant may end up on the move via trade), teams could come calling with appealing offers if the Rockies place Arenado on the block. Arenado has full no-trade rights as part of the seven-year, $234MM extension Colorado signed him to last offseason, though he has expressed frustration regarding the Rockies’ nightmarish 2019. So, if a contender tries to acquire him, perhaps the 28-year-old will be open to leaving the Rockies. Regardless of whether a trade comes together, Arenado has the ability to opt out of his contract after 2021.

Here are more rumblings from around the game…

  • A report earlier this week suggested the Cardinals haven’t shown much recent interest in Dallas Keuchel, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the club’s “intrigued” by the free-agent left-hander. The Cardinals were also among the teams in on Keuchel last season before he signed a one-year, $13MM contract with the Braves in June, thereby ending a shockingly long stay on the market. The soon-to-be 32-year-old didn’t have a great few months in Atlanta, but he should nonetheless do better in free agency this time. MLBTR predicts he’ll sign a three-year, $39MM pact.
  • At this week’s Winter Meetings, Miami and Minnesota discussed a trade that would see the Marlins send right-hander Elieser Hernandez to the Twins for outfielder Jake Cave, according to Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio. While there’s no indication a deal is on the way, the Twins are at least “open” to trading Cave and would like a pitcher in return, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets. Age (24 versus 27) is on Hernandez’s side, but Cave was the better producer in 2019. Cave slashed .258/.351/.455 in 228 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Hernandez put up a 5.03 ERA/5.58 FIP despite logging 9.29 K/9 against 2.84 BB/9 across 82 1/3 innings. Neither player is on track to reach arbitration until after 2021.
  • Although the possibility of the Mets acquiring Astros star shortstop Carlos Correa has been branded as more fantasy than reality, the teams did have “active” talks from November up to this week, Andy Martino of SNY reports. However, those discussions have “fizzled,” per Martino. For what it’s worth, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has told Correa not to worry about a trade. Barring something unforeseen, it appears Amed Rosario will continue as New York’s starting shortstop in 2020.
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Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Miami Marlins Minnesota Twins New York Mets Notes St. Louis Cardinals Carlos Correa Dallas Keuchel Elieser Hernandez Jake Cave Nolan Arenado

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Rockies “Willing To Listen” On Nolan Arenado

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2019 at 12:33pm CDT

The Rockies are “willing to listen” to trade proposals regarding third baseman Nolan Arenado, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). But Colorado fans probably shouldn’t chuck their #28 threads just yet.

In their public statements, at least, the Rockies’ top decisionmakers have been steadfast in saying they intend to press for contention in 2020. That’s complicated by a tight budgetary picture, but we can’t ignore what the team has said to fans to this point.

Also important: Arenado has full no-trade rights under the massive extension he inked in February. He has emphasized a desire to play for a winning outfit, so perhaps he’d consider waiving his protection on the heels of a forgettable campaign for the Colorado organization. Regardless, it’s a potential complication to any negotiations.

Beyond that, it’s tough to fathom that the Rockies will let Arenado go lightly. This isn’t a case of buyer’s remorse. The 28-year-old put up a typically excellent season in 2019, slashing .315/.379/.583 with 41 home runs over 662 plate appearances. He’s a high-grade fielder who has scarcely missed any action over the past five seasons.

While Arenado’s contract is not a cheap one — $234MM over seven years, to be exact — teams with potential interest are already weighing enormous outlays for Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson. It has become clear in recent weeks that there’s not quite enough supply to meet the demand for those players, which helps explain why the Cubs have even engaged some rival teams regarding Kris Bryant.

It remains to be seen whether any serious talks emerge regarding Arenado. The fact that he can opt out after the 2021 season may reduce the willingness of teams to make a big offer, though two mid-prime seasons of Arenado is nothing to sneeze at. Regardless of how things develop, this news makes for an interesting market development as Rendon and Donaldson rise to the top of the leaderboard of available free agents.

As might be suspected, Heyman adds that the openness to discussing Arenado also implies that the Rox are not ruling out any other players entirely. Outfielder Charlie Blackmon is perhaps the most sensible high-end veteran target on paper. It’d be harder for the team to part with Trevor Story, Jon Gray, or German Marquez, but it’s now somewhat easier to imagine the Colorado front office exploring wider-ranging possibilities.

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Colorado Rockies Nolan Arenado

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NL Notes: Arenado, Cano, Mets, Nats

By George Miller | October 19, 2019 at 3:22pm CDT

When Rockies megastar Nolan Arenado inked a franchise-record $260MM contract extension in February, it was of course assumed that the opt-out clause in his contract was one of Arenado’s demands to increase his leverage. However, it’s since been revealed that it was Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, not Arenado, who pushed for the inclusion of an opt-out clause. At first blush, that’s a questionable negotiating tactic at best. If a team wanted to lock up its star player for the long-run, why would it give him the option to jump ship three years into the contract? The Athletic’s Nick Groke, who spoke to Bridich himself, can provide some insight into the GM’s thinking. It’s left to Rockies fans to decide if they’re satisfied with his justification, which draws on the organization’s history with big contracts for the likes of Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton. While Rockies brass aren’t yet concerning themselves with Arenado’s decision, they will have to if the next couple of years play out anything like 2019. With Arenado intent on winning and the franchise preparing for another uninspiring offseason, the outlook for 2020 and beyond may be hampered by apparent financial restrictions. For the time being, though, the possibility of an Arenado opt-out looms as the club embarks on the winter with hopes of returning to the postseason.

Here are the latest notes from the Senior Circuit…

  • It was a forgettable first season in Flushing for Mets second baseman Robinson Canó, one of the team’s crown jewels from last winter. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reflects on the disappointing year for Canó while looking ahead to the future, which includes four more years of Canó, who turns 37 on Tuesday. While he seemed to find his stroke after the All-Star break, the overall numbers were still a far cry from the slugger that New Yorkers have come to know and love. Injuries no doubt played a considerable part in those struggles, with Canó landing on the injured list on three separate occasions, leading him to enter the offseason aiming to strengthen his legs. Still, the outlook for 37-year-old position players is not an especially promising one—and Canó won’t be given any breaks, given his hefty paycheck.
  • With the Nationals having punched their ticket to the World Series, they have some decisions to make regarding the roster and strategy for the Fall Classic. And they’ve been given plenty of time to ruminate on their options. Mark Zuckerman of MASN has a thorough roundup on the questions the Nats will have to answer in the coming days. Of course, their AL opponent will have some influence on the particular choices, but general manager Mike Rizzo and company are preparing plans for either scenario. A couple of bullpen spots could be up in the air, though the starting rotation’s dominance has thus far rendered those choices seemingly unimportant. But with the year’s most important games on the horizon, those decisions will not be taken lightly.
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Colorado Rockies New York Mets Notes Washington Nationals Jeff Bridich Nolan Arenado

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Injury Notes: Arenado, Simmons, Ahmed, Montgomery

By Mark Polishuk | June 20, 2019 at 8:37pm CDT

After fouling a ball off his left foot today, Nolan Arenado left the game with what the Rockies described as a contusion on his big toe.  The injury occurred in the top of the eighth inning, and the third baseman took his position in the bottom half of the inning before being subbed out in the bottom of the ninth.  The Rockies’ announcement specified that the move was made “for precautionary reasons,” noting that Arenado suffered a similar injury against the Padres last week.  Arenado told the Athletic’s Nick Groke and other reporters that today’s foul ball exacerbated the injury, though x-rays didn’t reveal any damage.  Particularly with Trevor Story hitting the IL earlier today, the absolute last thing the Rockies need is to lose their other superstar infielder to injury, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Arenado misses a game or two to fully heal up.

Some more injury situations from around baseball…

  • There was some thought that Andrelton Simmons could return to the Angels roster this weekend, though manager Brad Ausmus told reporters (including Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times) that Simmons won’t be returning quite so soon after coming up limping during last night’s minor league rehab game.  The shortstop could still potentially rejoin the club sometime next week, Ausmus said, and may not even play any more rehab games.  A Grade 3 ankle sprain put Simmons on the injured list on May 22, so even pushing back a return until next week still represents a very quick recovery from such an injury.
  • Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed suffered what the club termed as a left hand contusion after being hit by a Jeff Hoffman pitch in today’s game.  The injury forced Ahmed out of the game in the fifth inning, though manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert and other reporters that x-rays were negative and Ahmed could still potentially play tomorrow.  The defensively-gifted Ahmed has started all but four of Arizona’s games this season, and Ketel Marte would likely move from center field to shortstop if Ahmed did need to miss any time.
  • The Yankees have shut Jordan Montgomery down from throwing for two weeks, manager Aaron Boone told media (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).  The southpaw felt soreness while throwing a batting practice session as part of his rehab from Tommy John surgery in June 2018, and an MRI revealed inflammation in Montgomery’s throwing shoulder.  Despite the setback, Boone didn’t close the door on Montgomery potentially being able to return to the Yankees at some point this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Angels New York Yankees Notes Andrelton Simmons Jordan Montgomery Nick Ahmed Nolan Arenado

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Rockies Notes: Arenado, Catchers, Welker, Tinoco

By Steve Adams | March 6, 2019 at 11:31pm CDT

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic pulls back the curtain on the Rockies’ extension with Nolan Arenado, providing detail on the timing, structure and actual content of some of the meetings held between Arenado’s camp and organizational decision-makers (subscription required). While the two sides had hoped to avoid arbitration prior to exchanging figures on filing day, that didn’t come to pass, and at one point the sides even looked to be headed toward a hearing. Instead, the Rox agreed to a $26MM salary for the 2019 campaign (thus avoiding arbitration) under the pretense that Arenado’s agent, Joel Wolfe, would follow that up with a counter-offer to the team’s initial extension proposal.

Ultimately, it took a face-to-face meeting involving Arenado, Wolfe, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich and Rockies owner Dick Monfort for significant progress to be made on the extension — as well as a final call from Monfort to Wolfe urging that they put the finishing touches on a deal. Rosenthal’s column is rife with quotes from Wolfe, Bridich and Arenado himself — each detailing elements of negotiations and the thought processes of all parties involved at various points of talks. Rockies fans in particular will find it of great interest, of course, though a broader audience will surely appreciate the in-depth look of the inner-workings of one of the largest contracts in MLB history.

More on the Rockies…

  • The Rockies have curiously declined to address their catching situation this offseason. The reason, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, is that the organization is more concerned with glovework behind the dish than with offense. While there’s an acknowledgement from the club that it “needs more production from whoever plays,” says Saunders, it evidently still believes in its current options over the opportunities that were (and are) available on the market. The Rox are “generally pleased” with Tony Wolters from a defensive standpoint, which is supported by numbers that show he was an above-average framer and otherwise solid defender last year. Veteran Chris Iannetta has a spottier defensive record, though he has at times graded as a well-above-average framer. There’s also Tom Murphy — a former top prospect who has yet to establish himself at the MLB level and now finds himself out of minor league options. His power is more intriguing than his glove, though Murphy drew solid framing marks in ’18 and has generally controlled the running game at a roughly league-average level. In all, catching still looks like a weak spot for the Rockies, and the declaration that defense is valued more than offense seems an odd justification, as there were certainly options who could’ve provided both quality glovework and at least passable offense.
  • Third base prospect Colton Welker wasn’t disheartened to see the Rox commit to Arenado for the long term, writes Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Welker, a 21-year-old considered to be among the organization’s top five prospects, told Harding his current focus is simply on moving up the ladder in the system after a strong showing in Class-A Advanced last season. Furthermore, he explained that he almost expected the Rockies to do so. “Who wouldn’t sign that guy with the numbers he’s put up?” Welker asked rhetorically, adding that he relishes the opportunity to learn from a player of Arenado’s caliber in Spring Training. As the Rox have done with third base prospects Tyler Nevin and Josh Fuentes (the latter of whom is Arenado’s cousin), they’ve begun to give Welker some looks at first base with an eye toward the future. “Colton knew going into this past offseason that first base was going to be a focus in 2019, regardless of what happened with Nolan,” director of player development Zach Wilson told Harding. A fourth-round pick back in 2016, Welker crushed Class-A Advanced pitching at a .333/.383/.489 clip in 2018.
  • Minor league right-hander Jesus Tinoco will work as a reliever moving forward, manager Bud Black told reporters this morning (Twitter link via Saunders). The big righty, who was acquired in the trade that sent Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays, struggled to the tune of a 4.79 ERA through 26 starts (141 innings) at the Double-A level last season and has yet to post an ERA south of 4.67 at any level in the Rockies organization. That said, Tinoco posted encouraging marks of 8.4 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 last season and pitched well in 10 relief appearances in the Arizona Fall League last season.
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Colorado Rockies Chris Iannetta Colton Welker Jesus Tinoco Nolan Arenado Tom Murphy Tony Wolters

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MLBTR Poll: Does Arenado Deal Impact Extensions For Goldschmidt, Rendon?

By TC Zencka | March 2, 2019 at 12:27pm CDT

Though it took longer than expected, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got their big deals – Machado for a decade, Harper for a baker’s dozen. In the time between their signings, next winter’s top free agent got his big payday as well – the Rockies locked up Nolan Arenado for 8 years, $260MM. Free agency’s treatment of this winter’s big fish was always going to somewhat inform Arenado’s path, but the ramifications of all three superstars having planted their respective flags extends beyond San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado.

With Arenado’s abdication of his position atop 2019’s free agent class, Paul Goldschmidt inherits the throne. The Cardinals are now pressed with increased urgency to sign their new first baseman to an extension, writes Ben Frederickson of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. Though Machado and Harper were both presumptive fits on the Cardinals roster, they never really approached the bidder’s circle. Of course, as Frederickson points out, signing top free agents hasn’t been the Cardinal modus operandi. What is very much in their DNA is trading for superstars and extending (or re-signing) them, two prime examples being Mark McGwire in 1997 and Matt Holliday in 2009.

Frederickson urges the Cards to dive headlong into their partnership with Goldy, who might prove amenable to a long-term guarantee after watching Machado, Harper, and so many others tread water in free agency. An extension won’t come cheap for one of the more more accomplished hitters of his generation, who boasts an absurd 144 career wRC+, six consecutive All-Star games, four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, plus two silver medals and a bronze for MVP. And yet, there’s no ignoring the uncertainty created these past two frigid winters.

Still, the top free agents continue to make bank, and the same should be true for Goldschmidt. It was only a year ago this time that Scott Boras coaxed the Padres into giving Eric Hosmer, a far inferior player, $144MM over eight years. Frederickson cites his Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold in putting forth five years, $150MM ($30MM AAV) as a potential framework for a Goldschmidt extension.

The biggest differentiator between the Machado/Harper/Hosmer trio and Goldschmidt, of course, is age. The ISE Baseball client can claim one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the league – but he will be entering his age-32 season as a free agent. Still, the smart play for the Cardinals here, Frederickson suggests, is locking in the .297/.398/.532 career hitter as soon as possible he is willing.

The Nationals have a similar conundrum on their hands with Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon. For most Boras clients, there would be little hope for an extension this close to free agency, but Boras and the Nationals have made this work before – just not in every case. The two sides have remained in contact about a Rendon extension for most of the last year, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. Similarly to Goldschmidt, the Arenado signing has an effect here, as Rendon jumps to the top spot among free agent third basemen.

Rendon’s been a foundational piece throughout the Harper/Strasburg era in DC, batting .285/.361/.469 over six seasons in DC. He creates 23% more runs than average in that span, and he’s been even more impressive lately with a 141 wRC+ in 2017 and 140 wRC+ last year. Defensively he’s as sure-handed as they come, if not quite with Arenado’s flash. If it weren’t for Arenado’s vice-grip on the gold glove award, Rendon would likely have some hardware of his own.

Take a stacked positional class that includes Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, add to it superstar contemporaries in Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Harper, plus a flourishing next generation of Nats stars like Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto – and Rendon’s excellence gets lost in the shuffle. Epitomizing Rendon’s place in the current canon is this: he has zero All-Star appearances despite three top-12 finishes in MVP voting. He did, however, win a Silver Slugger in 2014 and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award in 2016.

Rendon, who turns 29 in June, is set to earn $18.8MM in 2019, his last year before hitting the open market. With Arenado securing a $32.5MM AAV, what is Rendon’s value? He’s a year older and less decorated than Arenado, but Rendon’s 25.8 career fWAR compares favorably to Arenado’s 25.3 fWAR. Turning to a rate metric, Arenado’s put forth a 127 OPS+ over the past five seasons versus Rendon’s 122 OPS+ in the same span. Still, Arenado is pretty much universally regarded as the superior player.

Given their ages, neither Goldschmidt nor Rendon are likely to surpass Arenado’s contract in terms of length, but they could reach higher AAVs if their incumbent clubs take Frederickson’s advice: “Pour on the money. Scale back the years.” 

Goldschmidt poll link for app users. 

Rendon poll link for app users.

 

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West Notes: Castillo, Arenado, Rockies, A’s, Ohtani

By Mark Polishuk | March 1, 2019 at 7:57pm CDT

Padres left-hander Jose Castillo will be sidelined for an estimated six-to-eight weeks to recover from a flexor strain in his throwing arm, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Castillo began feeling forearm tightness last week, which caused San Diego to shut down his bullpens and then ultimately place him on the 60-day injured list today.  Needless to say, any type of forearm injury is cause for concern, though the team is still “confident” that Tommy John surgery won’t be required.  The 23-year-old Castillo made his MLB debut last season and immediately delivered results, posting a 3.29 ERA, 4.33 K/BB rate, and a whopping 12.2 K/9 over 38 1/3 innings out of San Diego’s bullpen.  With Castillo on the IL, the Padres’ top left-handed options consist of Matt Strahm and the recently-signed Aaron Loup, with former big leaguers Eric Stout, Kyle McGrath, and Brad Wieck also available in the upper minors.

Some more from both the NL and AL West divisions….

  • The specter of what Manny Machado or Bryce Harper could land in free agency theoretically loomed over the extension talks between Nolan Arenado and the Rockies, though the Machado/Harper situations “had a lot less to do with it than you might think,” Rockies GM Jeff Bridich said in an appearance on Inside Pitch show on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link).  While both the team and Arenado’s camp were obviously cognizant of the larger market forces at play, Bridich said “There were never any sort of deadlines or caveats put in going ’Hey, we need to know this first before…’ We just focused on our business at hand, and I think that’s why we ended up getting what hopefully ends up to be a great deal for everybody involved.”
  • Now that Arenado has been locked up to the biggest contract in franchise history, the Rockies don’t have any more big extension candidates on their radar for at least a couple of years, Kyle Newman and Jeff Bailey of the Denver Post write.  Colorado’s top young stars are still controlled through arbitration or have yet to even reach their arb years — Trevor Story and Jon Gray are controlled through the 2021 season, while Kyle Freeland and German Marquez aren’t eligible for free agency until after the 2022 campaign.  This doesn’t mean the Rockies couldn’t explore a long-term deal in advance, though it’s worth noting that Arenado and Charlie Blackmon both only signed their extensions when they were a season removed from the open market.  Looking at Colorado’s long-term payroll, Arenado and Blackmon are the only players guaranteed salary beyond 2021, several of the team’s other big contracts (Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Daniel Murphy, and likely Ian Desmond) come off the books after 2020 or 2021.
  • The early start to the regular season for the Athletics and Mariners (who play a two-game series in Tokyo on March 20-21) has also pushed up some roster deadlines.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the A’s will have to decide by March 14 whether or not minor league signees Jerry Blevins and Nick Hundley will make the MLB roster.  Otherwise, Blevins and Hundley each can opt out of their minors contracts.  It could be a moot point, however, as “Blevins and Hundley both appear to be near-locks to make the team,” Slusser writes.  Hundley’s inclusion could leave Josh Phegley as the odd man out of the catching mix, and the out-of-options backstop is a good candidate to be claimed off waivers, multiple scouts tell Slusser.  Oakland’s early start doesn’t extend to out-of-options players, however, as the club has until March 28 (when their regular season resumes) to decide on Phegley, Frankie Montas, Aaron Brooks, and other players who can no longer be freely optioned to the minors.
  • Shohei Ohtani has moved from hitting off a tee to hitting soft toss, as the Angels slugger continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery.  The Halos are targeting a May return for Ohtani, though manager Brad Ausmus told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other media that the unique nature of Ohtani’s two-way status makes him “patient zero,” and thus “he doesn’t really have a set schedule.  He is making the schedule for future Shohei Ohtanis.”  Ohtani obviously won’t pitch this season, and he’ll be limited to DH-only duty once he does return to the team’s lineup.
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Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Angels Oakland Athletics San Diego Padres Jeff Bridich Jerry Blevins Jon Gray Jose Castillo Josh Phegley Nick Hundley Nolan Arenado Shohei Ohtani

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