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Reynaldo Lopez

Braves Place Reynaldo López On Injured List

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The Braves announced that they have recalled right-hander Bryce Elder, who will start tomorrow’s game, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on X. To open a spot for Elder, righty Reynaldo López was placed on the 15-day injured list with right forearm inflammation, retroactive to August 2.

López last took the mound on July 28 but left after three innings and the club later announced he was dealing with right forearm tightness. He was sent for an MRI that thankfully revealed no structural damage and the club was initially hoping the righty could avoid the IL. However, he still hasn’t thrown a bullpen since that start, per David O’Brien of The Athletic on X. It seems the soreness and/or inflammation aren’t receding as quickly as hoped and so the club put him on the shelf. Though he hasn’t pitched in almost a week now, IL stints can only be backdated a maximum of three days.

While it’s good that López isn’t facing some kind of season-ending surgery, it is still a notable challenge for the rotation. After working as a reliever in recent years, López moved into a starting role with Atlanta and was having great success with a 2.06 earned run average through 19 starts. His 86.1% strand rate has undoubtedly played a role in lowering his ERA but even his 3.18 FIP and his 4.05 SIERA suggest he’s been a serviceable starter this year.

The club still has Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, Max Fried and Spencer Schwellenbach but subbing in Elder or one of the club’s other depth starters for López is going to be a downgrade. Subtracting a pitcher with a 2.06 ERA would be less than ideal for any club but Elder has a 5.67 ERA on the year. That’s only nine starts and there’s a bit of bad luck in there from his .352 batting average on balls in play and 66.6% strand rate, but even his 4.23 FIP and 4.18 SIERA are a downgrade from López.

Even if one considers the drop from López to Elder manageable, it thins out the overall depth. AJ Smith-Shawver is having a poor year with a 5.40 ERA in Triple-A while Hurston Waldrep has been hurt and just allowed four earned runs over 2 2/3 innings in his most recent Triple-A start after coming off the IL. Ian Anderson is coming back from Tommy John surgery but has a 6.23 through three Triple-A starts so far.

Atlanta came into the season as the division favorites and started the season strong but they have fallen back this summer. They were 19-9 at the end of April but have gone 41-42 since then, leaving them at 60-51. That’s still good enough for the top Wild Card spot in the National League but there are three teams within two games and then another five clubs within seven games, making the grip on a playoff berth fairly tenuous at the moment.

Ideally, López will see be able to recover fairly quickly and make this a temporary issue, but the rotation will feel on the flimsy side until then. Sale is having a great year but missed most of the past four years due to injury and is now 35 years old, while Morton is well past his 40th birthday. Schwellenbach has been doing very well but still has just 11 major league starts under his belt. Fried just returned from an IL stint due to forearm neuritis but his first start back resulted in five walks and five earned runs allowed in 3 1/3 innings despite facing a hollowed-out Marlins lineup. The fans in the Atlanta area will undoubtedly be hoping for López to make a speedy recovery and return some time in the middle of the month.

Braves Activate Max Fried From Injured List

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TODAY: The Braves officially announced Fried’s activation and optioned lefty Dylan Lee to Triple-A to make room on the active roster. Lee, 30, has a 2.00 ERA in 35 appearances with the Braves this year but is the only player with options remaining in Atlanta’s bullpen after the club acquired right-hander Luke Jackson from the Giants ahead of the trade deadline last week.

AUGUST 3: The Braves are planning to activate left-hander Max Fried from the 15-day injured list in order to start the club’s game against the Marlins tomorrow afternoon, as manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Gabriel Burns of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). The southpaw has been on the shelf since late last month due to forearm neuritis. Atlanta will need to make room for Fried on the active roster prior to the start of tomorrow’s game.

Fried, 30, had an uncertain timetable for return when he was first placed on the shelf but fortunately will enjoy a near-minimum stay on the IL when all is said and done. It’s surely a relief for Braves fans that Fried was able to return so quickly given the club’s recent struggles; the club is just 14-13 since July 1 and 7-7 since the All Star break. Other clubs in the NL Wild Card race have caught up to the Braves while they’ve been spinning their wheels, as the Diamondbacks are currently just 1.5 games back of Atlanta for the top Wild Card spot, while the Mets and Padres are both tied for the third and final spot just half a game behind Arizona.

With so much crowding in the Wild Card picture, the Braves must be eager to welcome back Fried, who has been one of the league’s steadiest pitchers ever since breaking out during the shortened 2020 season. Since the start of that year, Fried has posted a dominant 2.73 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 101 starts despite a relatively pedestrian 23.3% strikeout rate. It’s been more of the same for the lefty this year as he’s posted a 3.08 ERA and 3.55 FIP in 18 starts for the Braves this year even after a brutal start to the season where he allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in his first 16 1/3 frames this year. He’s been nothing short of dominant since then, however, helping to form a three-headed monster at the front of Atlanta’s rotation alongside Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez that has helped the club overcome its lackluster performance on offense.

In welcoming Fried back to the rotation, the Braves figure to buy themselves a little bit more time in figuring out how to deal with Lopez’s own injury woes. The righty left his most recent start for the club on Sunday after just three innings due to forearm tightness. While an MRI ultimately revealed no structural damage, Lopez has nonetheless been day-to-day ever since. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman relayed earlier today that the right-hander still has yet to throw a bullpen since leaving his start at the beginning of the week, though he added that it “seems like” the club believes he could return to the mound within the next week. That would seemingly make it unlikely that Fried is set to replace Lopez in the rotation, as an IL stint can only be backdated a maximum of three days, meaning a trip to the 15-day IL for Lopez would still keep him out of action for nearly two weeks after he’s removed from the active roster.

With rookie Spencer Schwellenbach having generally impressed with a 4.03 ERA and 3.46 FIP through 11 starts, it seems possible that righty Grant Holmes could be the odd man out in the rotation mix upon Fried’s return. A former first-round pick by the Dodgers back in 2014, Holmes made his big league debut with Atlanta back in June and has pitched well for the club to this point with a 2.54 ERA and 2.22 FIP in 28 1/3 frames. Fried’s return doesn’t necessarily mean the end of Holmes’s time on the roster, however. With Lopez out of commission for the time being, the club could certainly benefit from moving Holmes back into his previous role as a multi-inning reliever or perhaps even keeping him available as a spot starter in the event that Lopez does wind up requiring a trip to the injured list.

Reynaldo López Day-To-Day With Forearm Tightness

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TODAY: López’s MRI revealed no structural damage, manager Brian Snitker told Toscano and other reporters (X link).  It appears as though this is something close to a best-case scenario for López and the Braves, as Snitker said López might not miss any time due to the injury.

JULY 28: Braves right-hander Reynaldo López was removed from today’s start after just three innings and the club announced that the move was due to right forearm tightness. He’s headed to Atlanta for an MRI, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on X. Though Atlanta characterized it as precautionary and described the righty as day-to-day, it could be a notable development given the surrounding circumstances of the club.

López mostly worked as a reliever from 2021 to 2023, but Atlanta moved him back to a starting role this year, an experiment that has gone incredibly well so far. The righty came into today with an earned run average of 2.12 in 101 2/3 innings. There’s certainly a bit of luck in there, as stranding 85.6% of baserunners isn’t sustainable in the long term, but his 8.7% walk rate is close to average and his 24.2% strikeout rate is quite strong. His 3.17 FIP and 4.00 SIERA point to solid results even with a bit less luck in terms of stranding runners.

Losing that kind of performance for even a short amount of time would be less than ideal for Atlanta. The club has been sliding in the standings lately and is well back of the Phillies in the National League East. In the Wild Card picture, there are nine teams battling for three spots, within eight games of each other. Atlanta is atop that heap, but only barely.

Their rotation challenges began early on and have mounted as the season has progressed. Spencer Strider required UCL surgery in April and is out for the year. Max Fried, Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep are also on the IL due to arm issues.

Fried and Waldrep could each be coming off the IL in the coming weeks, but it would be less than ideal for López to miss any time. If he were out of the picture, the rotation core would be down to Chris Sale and Charlie Morton, at least until one of the injured guys is able to return. Sale is having a great year but is hardly a sure thing, as he is 35 years old and missed most of the previous four seasons due to injury. Morton has a passable 4.16 ERA but is 40 years old and his strikeout rate has declined for a fourth straight season. Spencer Schwellenbach has been good but has just ten MLB starts to his name so far. Reliever Grant Holmes is listed as tomorrow’s starter.

All told, the Atlanta rotation has a lot of question marks in it right now, which could perhaps impact Atlanta’s behavior in the coming days. The trade deadline is 5pm Central on Tuesday, giving the club a bit of time to figure out how aggressively to pursue starting pitching upgrades. The market could features impact names like Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty and Tarik Skubal, as well as guys like Erick Fedde, Yusei Kikuchi, Cal Quantrill and many more.

The club also might be looking for help at second base and the outfield due to the injuries to Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II, but the competitive balance tax might impact their approach. RosterResource pegs their CBT number at $273MM, just below the third threshold of $277MM. Going over that line would not only lead to a higher rate of taxation but would also see their top pick in the 2025 draft pushed back ten spots.

On top of this season, there’s the worry of a long-term absence. At this point, there’s been nothing to suggest the worst-case scenario is on the table for López, but an injury to a pitcher’s throwing elbow/forearm will always lead to some degree of worry.

At this point in the year, a significant surgery could put the 2025 season in jeopardy for López. Atlanta is set to lose both Fried and Morton to free agency, with the latter also a candidate to retire. López is in the first season of a three-year deal and would certainly be part of the 2025 rotation mix as long as he’s healthy. If not, it would mostly consist of a 36-year-old Sale, followed by fairly unproven guys like Schwellenbach, Waldrep and others.

Checking In On 2024’s Reliever-To-Rotation Experiments: July Edition

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About a quarter of the way through the 2024 season, I took a look at how the most prominent examples of teams’ attempts to turn an established reliever into a starter had progressed. At the time, the majority of these experiments were going well, by and large. At that mid-May juncture, most of the relievers making the switch had yet to reach their innings workloads from the season prior. Now that we’re at the season’s halfway point, that’s no longer the case. Many of the pitchers striving to make this jump are now approaching or have already eclipsed their 2023 innings totals — if not their career-high workloads — so it seems a good time to check back on how they’re faring.

As a reminder, the focus here is pitchers who pitched exclusively or near-exclusively out of the bullpen last season. Someone like the Rays’ Zack Littell or Red Sox’ Kutter Crawford, who moved into the rotation last summer and continued that move this year, isn’t the focus.

Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox

Stats at quarter mark: 9 games started, 46 2/3 innings, 4.63 ERA (2.47 SIERA), 34.2 K%, 4.8 BB%, 43.8 GB%

Stats since: 9 GS, 54 2/3 innings, 1.65 ERA (2.27 SIERA), 36.3 K%, 5.2 BB%, 45.5 GB%

At the 25% mark of the season, Crochet sat on a pedestrian ERA but elite K-BB profile. His production had been skewed by a series of three straight rough outings: five runs versus the Reds, seven in Philadelphia and another five in Minnesota.

Those three starts still stand as the worst three of his season. Crochet hasn’t yielded more than three runs in a single outing since that time. He’s not only maintained his elite K-BB profile but improved upon it, slightly upping his strikeout rate while sustaining his exceptional command. No starter in baseball is striking out hitters at a higher rate than Crochet, and only 12 are limiting their walks more effectively.

At last check, Crochet had ace-like rate stats but pedestrian run-prevention numbers overall. That’s no longer the case. The only question as to whether Crochet is a bona fide No. 1 starter is one of durability. All of the pieces are there, but Crochet has never pitched a full season in the rotation. In fact, this year’s combined 101 1/3 innings not only stand as a career-high, they eclipse his combined total of professional innings pitched — majors and minors combined — since being selected in the first round of the 2020 draft.

With two and a half years of team control left, a bottom-of-the-barrel $800K salary and the worst team in baseball behind him, Crochet stands as a clear-cut trade candidate. The Sox reportedly broached the possibility of an extension with him but are now expecting to trade him after contract talks failed to progress. A new team will have to worry about how Crochet will hold up down the stretch, but there’s little doubting that he’s a front-of-the-rotation talent.

Jordan Hicks, RHP, Giants

Stats at quarter mark: 9 GS, 48 innings, 2.44 ERA (3.99 SIERA), 19.9 K%, 8.2 BB%, 56.2 GB%

Stats since: 8 GS, 37 2/3 innings, 4.54 ERA (4.29 SIERA), 22.2 K%, 10.2 BB%, 45.8 GB%

Early on, Hicks was thriving in terms of run-prevention in spite of a pedestrian strikeout rate. He’s picked up the strikeout rate a bit since that time but has seen his command, ground-ball rate and velocity all drop. After averaging 5 1/3 innings through his first nine starts, Hicks is averaging about 4 2/3 innings per outing and has seen his average sinker velocity drop by nearly two miles per hour. Since mid-May, his sinker is averaging 93.5 mph — down from the 95.5 mph at last check and even further from the 100.2 mph Hicks averaged in his time as a reliever.

Hicks has struggled to turn the lineup over multiple times. Opponents own an awful .196/.268/.348 slash when facing him the first time in a game. Unlike many pitchers, who experience a stark drop when facing opponents a third time, Hicks’ troubles begin the second trip through the order. Opponents in those settings carry a .267/.373/.382 slash. He’s only faced a hitter for the third time on a given day 57 times this season, but opponents have batted .283/.333/.434 in that small sample.

Back in May, I noted that opponents had posted an embarrassing .079/.167/.105 slash in the 42 plate appearances Hicks had finished off with a splitter. They’ve fared better against the pitch since that time, though it’d be hard to have performed much worse. And, with opponents still slashing only .160/.244/.272 against the pitch (which Statcast credits with a .270 expected wOBA), that newly implemented offering still has the look of a plus pitch.

Hicks has remained reasonably effective but hasn’t been the roaring success he was through the first quarter of the season. San Francisco signed the 27-year-old flamethrower to a four-year, $44MM deal and did so with an eye toward Hicks starting, so it’s clear this is a multi-year undertaking. Nothing Hicks has done to date suggests he decidedly can’t handle being a starter, but he’s faded from his early-season production, which is perhaps to be expected for a pitcher whose 85 2/3 innings are already a career-high mark.

The manner in which Hicks has begun to fade only further underscores the remarkable nature of Crochet’s performance to date as he navigates uncharted workload territory. That said, Hicks has an overall 3.36 ERA with a nearly average strikeout rate, a manageable walk rate and a plus ground-ball rate. There have been some roadblocks of late, but this year could serve as a launching pad to a better performance in 2025-27, when he’s more accustomed to his current workload.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Braves

Stats at quarter mark: 7 GS, 40 1/3 innings, 1.34 ERA (4.00 SIERA), 25.2 K%, 10.1 BB%, 40.2 GB%

Stats since: 7 GS, 39 innings, 2.08 ERA (3.58 SIERA), 26.1 K%, 7.0 BB%, 32.7 GB%

The Braves have been judicious with Lopez’s start-by-start workload thus far. He hasn’t topped 94 pitches in a single appearance and has only recorded four outs after the sixth inning all season. So far, that level of caution has paid off. Since last check, Lopez hasn’t lost any life of his heater and has actually tacked on 0.4 mph on average, per Statcast.

Atlanta doesn’t often give Lopez the opportunity to turn the lineup over a third time, and the opportunities he’s had haven’t gone well. Lopez has yielded a mid-.500s OPS to opponents the first or second time through the order but has been tagged for a .245/.359/.396 batting line the third time through. It’s not egregious, but it’s far less dominant than his first couple trips through a lineup.

Lopez is still running a plus strikeout rate, and he’s improved his command and his velocity as the season has worn on. As the only member of this list who’s previously worked multiple full seasons as a starter, he might have been the best-equipped to handle this transition, and so far it doesn’t appear he’s slowing down much at all.

Lopez entered the season with a career 71.1% strand rate, and he’s currently stranding 86.3% of his baserunners. His .279 average on balls in play is lower than league average but right in line with his career .281 mark. He’s allowed only 0.45 homers per nine frames, thanks in large part to a paltry 4.7% homer-to-flyball ratio that sits well shy of his career 11.3% mark. There’s some correlation there; it’s easier to strand runners if you’re almost never allowing a ball to clear the outfield fence, after all. In all likelihood, both that HR/FB and strand rate will trend toward his career marks as the season (and, more broadly, his three-year contract) wears on, but the outside-the-box bet on Lopez as a starter looks like one that will pay off for Atlanta.

Jose Soriano, RHP, Angels

Stats at quarter mark: 7 GS, 38 2/3 innings, 3.72 ERA (4.03 SIERA), 20.3 K%, 9.5 BB%, 61.5 GB%

Stats since: 5 GS, 33 2/3 innings, 3.21 ERA (3.97 SIERA), 16.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 58.6 GB%

Soriano was continuing his sharp start to the season when he was scratched from a mid-June start due to abdominal pain. The Halos discovered an infection in the young righty’s abdomen that required a trip to the injured list and was expected to sideline him a few weeks. That’s thrown a bit of a wrench into his rotation breakout, though there’s no indication it’s a serious issue and the Halos can take solace in the fact that there’s no arm issue at play. And, after pitching just 65 1/3 innings last season, Soriano is already at 72 1/3 frames this year, so perhaps it can serve as a well-timed breather for his right arm.

The 25-year-old Soriano’s first run as a starter in the big leagues this season looked promising through mid-May and continues to do so. Impressively, he hasn’t lost any life on his four-seamer or sinker despite the shift from short relief to starting work. Statcast measured his average four-seamer at 98.9 mph in both 2023 and 2024, while his sinker clocked in at an average of 97.7 mph in 2023 and is actually marginally better in 2024 at 97.8 mph.

That sinker has helped Soriano run up an elite ground-ball rate; his 60.1% grounder rate ranks third among the 145 big league pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched this year, trailing only Framber Valdez (61.4%) and Cristopher Sanchez (60.3%). That uptick in grounder rate over last year’s 51% mark correlates with a huge spike in Soriano’s sinker usage (13.3% in ’23, 40% in ’24). The extra sinker usage has come at the expense of some four-seamers (25.8% in ’23, 17.8% in ’24) and particularly Soriano’s knuckle curve (41.2% in ’23, 27.5% in ’24).

The tweak in repertoire could come down to a pursuit of efficiency as Soriano looks to work deeper into games. The right-hander fanned 30.3% of opponents last season and registered a hearty 14.8% swinging-strike rate but also required 16.6 pitches per inning pitched, on average. In 2024, his strikeout rate is down to 20.3% with a 10.2% swinging-strike rate. But he’s significantly upped his grounder rate and is now averaging just 15.1 pitches per frame. Soriano averaged 6 2/3 innings per start in the five appearances between our last check and this one, so it seems clear he’s placing an emphasis on being able to work deeper into games in his new role. Opponents are hitting .313/.421/.521 in 58 plate appearances when facing him a third time, so the results aren’t there so far, however.

Bryse Wilson, RHP, Brewers

Stats at quarter mark: 11 G (5 GS), 34 innings, 2.65 ERA (4.60 SIERA), 20.4 K%, 10.9 BB%, 39.1 GB%

Stats since: 9 G (4 GS), 44 innings, 5.52 ERA (4.27 SIERA), 17.6 K%, 6.7 BB%, 41.3 GB%

Wilson hasn’t technically “started” each of his past nine appearances, but he’s averaged five innings per outing while working as a starter and bulk reliever (on the heels of an opener). Effectively, the Brewers are using him as a starter — they’re just shielding him from the top-third of some lineups on occasion, when the matchup dictates.

This wasn’t a planned move to a longer role. The former Braves top prospect and Pirates hurler entered the season slated for a second straight season as Milwaukee’s long man, but injuries to Wade Miley, Joe Ross, Robert Gasser and DL Hall combined to not only push Wilson into this rotation-ish role but to keep him there. After pitching 76 2/3 innings of pure long relief in 2023, Wilson is already at 78 frames and counting.

As one would typically expect, Wilson’s fastball has taken a slight dip as he’s stretched out for longer stints. He averaged 94 mph through the season’s first quarter, but several of those earlier appearances were still in short relief. He’s averaging 93.2 mph since mid-May and has seen his strikeout rate drop but also seen his walk rate improve. As he’s been tasked with facing more lefties, Wilson has upped his changeup and cutter usage a bit, doing so at the expense of his four-seamer and curveball.

Wilson has been far too homer-prone this season (1.62 HR/9) and is giving up too much hard contact (45.8%, per Statcast). More so than any pitcher on this list, he’s run into troubles the third time through the order; in 45 such plate appearances, they’ve posted a Herculean .400/.467/.650 slash. Those plate appearances account for just 13.6% of Wilson’s batters faced this season but have resulted in 21.5% of his home runs allowed. Wilson seems best suited for a long relief role or a five-inning start/bulk role, but he’s pitched more than five innings six times this season and is giving Milwaukee some desperately needed innings when their rotation is in tatters.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Marlins

Stats at quarter mark: 4 GS, 13 2/3 innings, 9.22 ERA (7.13 SIERA), 15.6 K%, 22.1 BB%, 31.9 GB%

Stats since: 0  GS, 21 1/3 innings, 2.95 ERA (3.36 SIERA), 21.4 K%, 4.8 BB%, 44.3 GB%

The Marlins quickly pulled the plug on the Puk rotation experiment, and it’s worked out for all parties. The former No. 6 overall pick (A’s, 2016) turned heads as a starter in spring training but was shelled in what currently stand as the only four starts of his big league career (though Puk was a starter both for the University of Florida and in the minor leagues).

It’s unlikely that Puk would’ve continued to struggle quite so substantially had Miami continued using him as a starter, but the left-hander certainly looks more comfortable in the short relief role in which he thrived from 2022-23 (123 innings, 3.51 ERA, 19 saves, 22 holds, 29.4 K%, 6.9 BB%). He’s performing far better in his old role, and he required a three-week stint on the injured list for shoulder fatigue following his early start in the rotation.

There’s no reason to fault the Marlins for trying to stretch out a clearly talented reliever who has a track record in the rotation, but Puk is back in the bullpen and figures to draw attention over the next month from teams seeking left-handed bullpen help. He’s controllable through the 2026 season.

Tyler Alexander, LHP, Rays

Stats at quarter mark: 7 G (5 GS), 39 2/3 innings, 5.45 ERA (4.44 SIERA), 19.1 K%, 6.9 BB%, 30.4 GB%

Stats since: 3 G (1 GS), 17 innings, 7.94 ERA (3.68 SIERA), 20.3 K%, 1.4 BB%, 27.8 GB%

Alexander entered the season in the same type of role Wilson currently holds with the Brewers: occasional starter and frequent bulk reliever behind an opener. He made a handful of solid appearances early on, though the value of those was offset by some particularly rough outings versus the Yankees (six runs in seven innings) and the Royals (eight runs in five innings).

Following our last check-in, Alexander made three appearances before being optioned to Triple-A Durham, where he’s worked quite effectively out of the Bulls’ rotation: five starts, 29 2/3 innings, 3.64 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 2.4% walk rate. That should position him as a depth option in the event of a big league injury and/or trade. Tampa Bay reportedly has considered fielding offers on current members of its big league rotation — Zack Littell and Aaron Civale, most notably. Part of that is due to the looming returns of Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs, but Alexander gives them another rotation candidate who’s performed well recently in Durham.

The Rays haven’t abandoned the Alexander starting experiment, but for the time being he’s not in their big league rotation plans. Speculatively, that could make Alexander himself a trade option for teams seeking back-of-the-rotation depth, though if the Rays do ultimately move Littell, Civale or a more expensive arm like Zach Eflin, they may not want to deplete the rotation depth much further.

Checking In On 2024’s Reliever-To-Rotation Experiments

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The 2023-24 offseason saw several teams go outside the box to add to their rotation mix by announcing plans to convert an established reliever into (or back into) a starting pitcher. It’s not a new concept by any means, of course, but it’s always notable when a player who’s found some success in one pitching role is shifted to the other — be it one-inning relievers stretching out to join a rotation or struggling starters shifting to the ’pen and hoping to find new life as their stuff plays up.

In some instances — e.g. Jordan Hicks, Reynaldo Lopez — the pitchers in question signed lucrative multi-year deals as part of this planned pivot. For others, this role change comes amid their original six seasons of club control and could greatly impact their earnings in arbitration and/or in free agency down the road.

Now that we’re about a quarter of the way through the year, it seems like a good time to check in on how some of these role changes are playing out. Readers should note that this rundown will focus on pitchers who pitched exclusively or near-exclusively out of the bullpen last season. Pitchers like Boston’s Garrett Whitlock (who started 10 games last year and nine in 2022) or Tampa Bay’s Zack Littell (who moved to the rotation last summer and finished out the ’23 campaign as a starter) aren’t the focus here so much as arms who were more strictly confined to short relief recently.

Since so many of these transitions are going to bring about clear workload concerns, we’ll check back in periodically throughout the season. For now, here’s how things are going through about 25% of the schedule.

Jordan Hicks, RHP, Giants

Hicks’ transition from flamethrowing late-inning reliever to … well, flamethrowing starting pitcher has gone seamlessly thus far. It’s only nine starts and 48 innings, but the 28-year-old boasts a 2.44 ERA in his move to the rotation. A career-low 19.9% strikeout rate is a red flag, but Hicks’ 8.2% walk rate is lower than the league average and a career-best mark as well. His 56.2% grounder rate isn’t quite as high as the 60% mark he carried into the season but is still more than 10 percentage points above average.

As one would expect, Hicks’ blazing sinker has lost quite a bit of velocity now that he’s not throwing one max-effort inning at a time. His sinker sat at 100.2 mph last year but is clocking in at 96 mph in 2024. Even with four fewer miles per hour on his primary offering, however, Hicks has more than enough velocity to keep hitters off balance.

Hicks has also fully incorporated the splitter he tinkered with in 2023 into his arsenal this year. After throwing it just 1.6% of the time last season, he’s thrown 22.5% splitters in 2024. Opponents may as well not even bother swinging at the pitch. Hicks has finished off 42 plate appearances with a splitter, and hitters have posted a .079/.167/.105 slash in those instances. Opposing batters have chased the pitch off the plate at more than a 35% clip, and Hicks boasts a huge 42.9% whiff rate on the pitch, per Statcast.

The big question for Hicks, as it is for virtually any pitcher making this transition, is how his arm will hold up once he begins pushing it into uncharted waters. Hicks has never topped 77 2/3 innings in a big league season. That mark came way back in his 2018 rookie showing. The 105 frames Hicks tallied as a minor league starter in 2017 are the most he’s ever pitched in a full season. He’ll be approaching his MLB-high after he makes another four starts or so and will be on the cusp of a new career-high about 10 to 11 starts from now — when there’s still roughly half a season left to play. Hicks wasn’t even especially durable as a reliever, only surpassing 35 appearances in two of his five prior big league seasons. The early returns are outstanding, but the real test will probably come in late June and into July.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Braves

Unlike Hicks, Lopez is no stranger to starting games at the MLB level. He started 73 games for the White Sox from 2018-20 after coming over from the Nationals alongside Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the Adam Eaton trade. The first of those three seasons went well, but Lopez stumbled in 2019-20 and began to transition to the bullpen in 2021.

The shift to a relief role seemed to suit the right-hander well. His already impressive velocity played up even further. Lopez averaged better than 95 mph as a starter in ’18-’20 but saw that number jump to 97.1 mph in 2022 and a massive 98.4 mph in 2023. Over those two seasons, he pitched to a sharp 3.02 earned run average. His rate stats were somewhat uneven, as he showed pristine command (4.3% walk rate) but an only slightly higher-than-average strikeout rate in ’22 before jumping to a huge 29.9% strikeout rate in ’23 … but pairing it with a bloated 12.2% walk rate. Taken together, however, Lopez gave the Sox 131 1/3 innings with that 3.02 ERA, 31 holds, six saves, a 27.4% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate.

When he signed with the Braves for three years and $30MM, that generally fell in line with expectations for what he’d command as a late-inning reliever. However, it quickly became clear that the Braves were going to stretch Lopez back out. There was plenty of skepticism — myself very much included, admittedly — but the experiment has gone better than anyone could’ve imagined.

Thus far, Lopez has not only been the Braves’ best starter but one of the most effective starters in the league. He’s pitched 35 1/3 innings of 1.53 ERA ball. His velocity has dipped back down to his 2018-20 levels, sitting 95.6 mph, but that’s to be expected working out of the rotation. His 25.5% strikeout rate is better than average but not elite. His 9.9% walk rate could stand to come down. But Lopez is throwing more curveballs than ever before (10%), has largely abandoned his changeup and is keeping the ball on the ground at a career-best 41.1% rate. That’s a bit shy of the 42.8% league average but noticeably higher than the 35% clip he posted during his time with the White Sox.

The uptick in grounders is one reason that Lopez is yielding a career-low 0.51 homers per nine innings. The other is a 5.4% homer-to-flyball rate that he almost certainly can’t sustain. That fluky HR/FB and an abnormally high 88.7% strand rate are part of the reason metrics like SIERA (3.87) and xFIP (3.79), which normalize HR/FB, tend to peg him for some regression. Still, even if he’s bound to see his ERA tick up by a couple runs, Lopez has looked great through his first six turns.

Time will tell just how his arm can handle a return to his 2018-19 workloads, but the early results are excellent — and the importance of his breakout is magnified by the loss of ace Spencer Strider to season-ending elbow surgery. Notably, Lopez exited last night’s start with some tightness in his back, but manager Brian Snitker suggested after the game that he’s likely to make his next start.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Marlins

On the other side of the coin, the Marlins’ efforts to move Puk back into a starting role quickly went down in flames. Puk, a former No. 6 overall pick who worked as a starter in the minors, looked excellent this spring. He pitched 13 2/3 innings over four starts and two earned runs with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio. The transition could hardly have gotten out to a more promising start.

In his first four regular-season starts, Puk also pitched 13 2/3 innings. The similarities stop there. Opponents bludgeoned Puk for 14 earned runs on 19 hits and a stunning 17 walks. He fanned only 12 of his 77 opponents (15.6%).

Miami placed Puk on the injured list on April 20 due to left shoulder fatigue. He returned from the injured list just yesterday. Despite myriad injuries in their rotation, the Fish have already pulled the plug on the rotation experiment for Puk, announcing that he’ll be back in the bullpen following his stay on the injured list. It’s a role he thrived in over the past two seasons, logging a 3.51 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate while piling up 22 saves and 19 holds.

If Puk returns to form as a reliever — he was particularly impressive in ’23, striking out 32.2% of opponents against a 5.4% walk rate — the ill-fated rotation gambit will be little more than a footnote in what hopefully ends up as a strong overall career as a reliever. If Puk’s struggles persist, however, there’ll be plenty of second-guessing the decision to take one of the team’s best relief arms and stretch him out despite a litany of injury troubles that had combined to limit Puk to only 147 2/3 innings in his entire career prior to this season.

Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox

Crochet has worked to a pedestrian earned run average on the season due to a bevy of home runs allowed, but the former first-rounder who’s drawn comparisons to Chris Sale since being drafted by the White Sox has turned in elite strikeout and walk numbers. The 4.63 ERA looks unimpressive, but Crochet has fanned more than a third of his opponents (34.2%) against a pristine 4.8% walk rate.

Crochet boasts an excellent 14.5% swinging-strike rate and is averaging 96.9 mph on his heater. That’s a ways from the 100.2 mph he averaged in six innings as a rookie in 2020, but Crochet has had Tommy John surgery since that time and is working in longer stints now as opposed to bullpen work in ’20. This year’s velocity actually slightly exceeds his average velocity from working purely as a reliever in 2022-23.

In terms of workload concern, Crochet is up there with Puk in terms of extreme uncertainty. He entered the season with a total of 73 big league innings since his No. 11 overall selection in 2020 and is already at 46 2/3 innings on the young 2024 campaign. So long as he keeps missing bats and limiting walks anywhere near his current levels, the run-prevention numbers will come down — FIP and SIERA peg him at 3.33 and 2.37, respectively — but it’s anyone’s guess as to how Crochet will hold up. He skipped the minor leagues entirely, so even if you add in his whole minor league body of work, that’d only tack last year’s 12 1/3 rehab innings onto his track record. Going from a total of 85 1/3 professional innings over a four-year period to a full starter’s workload is bound to have some bumps in the road, but so far Crochet looks quite intriguing as a starting pitcher.

Jose Soriano, RHP, Angels

The Angels nearly lost Soriano back in 2020, when the Pirates selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. At the time, Soriano was wrapping up his rehab from 2020 Tommy John surgery and could’ve been stashed in a rebuilding Pittsburgh bullpen upon his reinstatement from the injured list. A setback in his recovery early in the season prompted another wave of imaging and revealed a new tear, however. Soriano underwent a second Tommy John surgery on June 16, 2021. He was eventually returned to the Angels.

Unfortunate as that back-to-back pair of surgeries was, Soriano’s injury troubles allowed the Angels to keep him in the system. They’re now reaping the benefits. The flamethrowing righty made 38 relief appearances last season and pitched to a quality 3.64 ERA with a huge 30.3% strikeout rate — albeit against a troubling 12.4% walk rate. Soriano averaged 98.6 mph on his heater last year and wound up picking up 15 holds, as the then-rookie righty increasingly worked his way into higher-leverage spots.

The Angels announced early in spring training that Soriano would be stretched out as a starter. His ramp-up continued into the regular season. His first two appearances this year came out of the bullpen but both spanned three innings. He’s since moved into the rotation and has looked quite impressive. Through his first seven starts, Soriano touts a 3.58 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and an outstanding 62.8% ground-ball rate. Even though he’s working in longer stints, he’s improved his fastball and is now sitting at 99.3 mph with it. His 12.4% walk rate still needs improvement, but the returns here are quite promising.

Soriano only pitched 65 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues last year, and he’s already at 38 2/3 frames on the 2024  season. He’s never pitched more than 82 1/3 innings in a professional season. We’ll see how he fares as he pushes past those thresholds, but there’s a lot to like with this rotation move — even though it’s garnered far less attention than some of the others around the game.

Tyler Alexander, LHP, Rays

The Rays obviously have a knack for finding hidden gems and converting unheralded arms into viable starting pitchers — hey there, Zack Littell — and Alexander is an example of their latest efforts to do so. The left-hander has started for the Tigers in the past and functioned in a swingman role, but the Rays picked him up in a low-cost move following a DFA in Detroit with the idea of stretching him out. Since it’s Tampa Bay, not all of Alexander’s “starts” have been, well, actual starts. He’s followed an opener on multiple occasions already, but he’s followed that one- or two-inning table-setter with at least four innings each time out.

Overall, Alexander has made eight appearances and averaged just under five frames per outing (39 2/3 total innings). He’s sitting on a pretty rough 5.45 ERA, thanks in part to a six-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees last time out (though he did at least complete seven frames in that start, helping to spare the Tampa Bay bullpen). Alexander’s 19.1% strikeout rate is about three percentage points shy of average. His 6.9% walk rate is about two points better than average. However, he’s taken his longstanding status as a fly-ball pitcher to new heights in 2024, inducing grounders at just a 30.4% clip.

Alexander’s 14.5% homer-to-flyball ratio is only a couple percentage points north of average, but because of the sheer volume of fly-balls he’s yielding, he’s still averaging more than two taters per nine frames. Opponents have posted an ugly 11.8% barrel rate against him (ugly for Alexander, that is). If he can’t cut back on the fly-balls and/or start finding a way to avoid the barrel more regularly, it’s going to be hard for Alexander to find sustained success. The Rays don’t convert on every dart-throw — much as it’s fun to joke to the contrary — and so far the Alexander experiment hasn’t paid off.

Bryse Wilson, RHP, Brewers

Wilson’s move to the rotation wasn’t necessarily planned, but injuries up and down the Brewers’ staff forced the issue. Five of his past six outings have been starts and he’s sporting an eye-catching 1.78 ERA in that span. The rest of the numbers in that stretch are less impressive. Wilson has a tepid 17.3% strikeout rate in that stretch but has walked an untenable 13.5% of opponents. Opponents have posted a hefty 45.7% hard-hit rate (95 mph or more) against him during that time. Were it not for a .191 BABIP and 92.2% strand rate, the ERA wouldn’t look nearly as rosy. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (5.34) are quite bearish.

Wilson is still scheduled to take the ball on Saturday in Houston, but his recent stretch of run-prevention doesn’t seem sustainable without some improvements in his K-BB profile.

Braves Option Bryce Elder; Reynaldo Lopez To Open Season As Fifth Starter

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The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve optioned right-handers Bryce Elder and Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A Gwinnett. That follows last week’s option of righty AJ Smith-Shawver and closes the book on Atlanta’s fifth-starter competition. Offseason signee Reynaldo Lopez will open the season as the team’s fifth starter behind Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale, tweets Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

While it’s looked quite likely for some time now that Lopez would get the spot, it’s nonetheless a scenario that would’ve sounded outlandish after the conclusion of the 2023 season. Elder faded down then stretch in the final couple months of the ’23 campaign but was an All-Star last July. Smith-Shawver rose from High-A to the big leagues in a matter of months last season. Lopez, meanwhile, moved to the bullpen early in the 2021 season with the White Sox and has worked as a reliever for the bulk of the past three seasons.

However, even at the time the Braves signed Lopez to a three-year, $30MM contract, they made clear that the plan was going to be to stretch the right-hander out as a rotation option. Atlanta scouts and evaluators are clearly bullish on the right-hander’s power arsenal and feel it can indeed still hold up in a starting capacity. Lopez started 73 games for the ChiSox from 2018-20, so he’s no stranger to the role, but the vast majority of his MLB success has come since moving to short relief stints.

Thus far in camp, he’s at least looked the part of a viable rotation piece. Spring stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but through 16 2/3 frames Lopez hasn’t done much to hurt his chances. He’s posted a sharp 2.16 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate. Elder has been tagged for 11 runs on 15 hits and six walk with 13 strikeouts through just 12 innings. Ynoa, who’s still making his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery, was slowed early in camp by some shoulder soreness and only made his spring debut on Saturday, tossing one inning. Were it not for the shoulder issue, perhaps he’d have been more firmly in the mix this spring, but he didn’t have the chance to build up and will open the season as a depth option in Gwinnett.

Once Smith-Shawver was optioned a week ago, the competition was largely down to Elder and Lopez. It might seem surprising to push an All-Star out of the rotation in favor of a converted reliever, but after a brilliant start to his 2023 season, Elder limped to a dismal 5.75 ERA with just a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate over his final 72 innings of the year (14 starts).

Lopez, over the past three seasons, has pitched to a 3.14 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 39% ground-ball rate through 189 innings, most of which has come in a relief setting. He pushed his average fastball velocity up to a career-high 98.4 mph in that role last season, though he’ll likely see that number dip a bit over longer stints as a starter.

Lopez posted a 3.91 ERA in 32 starts for the ’18 White Sox but did so with shaky strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates that prompted metrics like FIP (4.63) and SIERA (4.92) to cast a much less favorable light on his work. The secondary numbers indeed served as a portent for regression; from 2019-20, Lopez was torched for a 5.52 ERA in 210 2/3 innings, thanks largely to pedestrian K-BB numbers and a sky-high 1.88 HR/9 mark.

If Lopez is able to break out as a starter, the three-year, $30MM contract he signed could well look like a bargain. If not, he’s proven over the past few seasons that he can be an impact late-inning reliever, so he could always be shifted back into a one-inning role and deepen an already excellent Atlanta bullpen that features Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, A.J. Minter, Pierce Johnson, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee and Lopez’s former White Sox teammate Aaron Bummer.

Braves Option AJ Smith-Shawver

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The Braves announced this morning that they’ve optioned right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver to Triple-A Gwinnett, thus ending his bid for a spot in the team’s Opening Day rotation. He’ll begin the season in the upper minors and serve as one of the team’s first lines of defense should an injury occur on the starting staff.

It’s not an entirely unexpected move. The top spots in the Atlanta rotation are set in stone, with Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale all assured roles heading into camp. That left the fifth spot to a likely battle between Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder and offseason signee Reynaldo Lopez, whom the Braves plan to stretch back out as a starter after spending the last couple seasons in a bullpen role.

Lopez’s contract made him a favorite to begin with, but the fact that he’s yielded just one run and three hits with a 7-to-2 K/BB ratio and 53% grounder rate in eight spring innings surely hasn’t harmed his chances. Smith-Shawver, by comparison, has been tagged for seven runs on a dozen hits and three walks with 11 strikeouts in 7 2/3 spring frames. Elder, a 2023 All-Star, has had similar struggles to Smith-Shawver in his small sample of spring innings. In 7 2/3 frames, he’s been charged with six runs on the strength of 10 hits and three walks with 10 strikeouts. It might seem surprising to push an All-Star out of the rotation in favor of a converted reliever, but Elder did wilt in alarming fashion down the stretch in ’23, posting a 5.75 ERA with just a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate over his final 14 starts/72 innings.

The composition of the Opening Day rotation is in some ways immaterial — particularly for a Braves club that’ll enter the year as an overwhelming postseason favorite. In all likelihood, each of Lopez, Smith-Shawver and Elder will start games for the Braves this season. Injuries limited Fried to just 77 2/3 innings last year, while Sale has pitched only 151 innings over the past four seasons combined. Morton has been a workhorse, ranking sixth in the majors in games started and 11th in innings pitched dating back to 2018 — but he’s also entering his age-40 season.  Injuries are an inevitability among big league pitchers, so the Braves will likely have to tap into their impressive collection of depth arms — headlined by Elder and Smith-Shawver — at various points in 2024.

While the Smith-Shawver demotion clearly isn’t a means of manipulating his service time, it’s still worth noting that the decision could have implications in that regard. The 21-year-old made his MLB debut in 2023 and started five games (plus one relief appearance), pitching to a 4.26 ERA with a 20-to-11 K/BB ratio in 25 1/3 innings. He picked up 50 days of service last season, meaning he’d reach a full year of MLB service with another 122 days on this year’s roster (roughly two-thirds of the season). If he reaches that full year of service, Smith-Shawver would be controllable through the 2029 season. If he spends fewer than 122 days on the roster, he’ll be controllable through the 2030 season.

Smith-Shawver soared from High-A to the majors in 2023, pitching to a combined 2.76 ERA across three minor league levels before making that MLB debut. Baseball America ranks him as the game’s No. 42 prospect. He’s ranked 63rd at FanGraphs and 69th at MLB.com.

The Braves’ Fifth Starter Possibilities

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There’s no question about the top four in the Braves rotation. Atlanta acquired Chris Sale over the weekend to join Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton in a high-upside staff, then promptly extended Sale. The Braves don’t have a set choice for the #5 spot to open the year. It seems that’ll be up for grabs in camp.

On an appearance on The Bill Shanks Show on Tuesday, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the front office was willing to consider a number of options for the last rotation job. “It’ll be open competition for the fifth spot,” he told Shanks. The front office leader name-checked five candidates for the position (albeit without saying it was an exhaustive list): Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López, AJ Smith-Shawver, Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.

Atlanta had a camp battle for the final two spots last spring. They surprisingly tabbed Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, neither of whom had made their MLB debuts, for season-opening roles after impressive Spring Training performances. While neither rookie fared all that well, the Braves are open to again turning to a young arm if they outperform others in the spring.

“We’re going to take the best players,” Anthopoulos said. “We never assume the division. You can lose it or win it by a game, as we saw in 2022 (when) it came down the wire. … We’re going to break with the best team. Like anything, we’ll try to maintain our depth. If there’s a lot of ties or it’s close, we’ll keep our depth. But we’re hopeful these guys are all good in Spring Training and make it hard on us.”

Perhaps an opportunity will arise for the Braves to add a surefire #5 starter within the next couple months. That doesn’t appear to be an organizational priority, however. There seems a good chance Atlanta is content with a camp battle between the group that Anthopoulos referenced. They’ll likely all play roles at some point as injuries necessitate, but we’ll run through the top candidates for the Opening Day job as things currently stand.

——————————————

Elder surprisingly emerged as a rotation mainstay for Atlanta a year ago. Despite briefly starting the season with Triple-A Gwinnett, he wound up taking the ball 31 times and tossing 174 2/3 innings — second on the team behind Strider. Elder had a great first half, pitching to a 2.97 ERA en route to an All-Star selection. He didn’t find that same level of success down the stretch, as he surrendered a 5.11 mark in the second half. The Phillies tagged him for six runs in 2 2/3 frames during his only postseason start.

At year’s end, Elder still carried a solid 3.81 ERA. Despite the rough finish, he was a valuable part of Brian Snitker’s pitching staff. It’s nevertheless questionable whether he can replicate a sub-4.00 ERA without missing many bats. Elder had a below-average 17.5% strikeout rate and 9.9% swinging strike percentage a season ago. He’s a ground-ball specialist whose sinker was below the 90 MPH mark on average. It’s a very different profile from the high-octane strikeout stuff of the top four in the rotation (and that of some of his competitors for the #5 job). Anthopoulos pointed out that Elder still has a full slate of minor league options and could start the year in Gwinnett if he doesn’t break camp with the MLB team, as Ian Anderson did in 2023.

López, on the other hand, is certainly going to be on the major league roster. The question is whether that’s in the rotation or the bullpen. Atlanta signed the 30-year-old righty to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal at the start of the offseason. While the price tag wasn’t a surprise, the Braves’ subsequent announcement they might stretch López out as a starter was unexpected.

Teams have used López almost exclusively in relief for the past two and a half seasons. He hasn’t had a full year as a starter since 2019, when he was tagged for a 5.38 ERA in 184 innings for the White Sox. López has shown the durability to hold up from the rotation, topping 180 frames in consecutive seasons for Chicago in 2018-19. The former top prospect has been much more effective when working in shorter stints, though. He owns a 3.02 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout percentage in 131 1/3 innings between a trio of clubs since the start of 2022.

Smith-Shawver, who turned 21 in November, was among the youngest players to reach the majors last season. He got to the big leagues within two years of being drafted out of high school. Smith-Shawver didn’t hold a long-term rotation role, appearing in six games (five starts). He posted a 4.26 ERA through 25 1/3 innings despite middling strikeout and walk rates and seven home runs.

The 6’3″ hurler had a more impressive statistical track record in the minors. He combined for 62 frames between the top three minor league levels, allowing a 2.76 ERA while striking out 31.3% of opponents. Smith-Shawver walked over 13% of batters faced in the minors, so he’s clearly not a finished product. That’s to be expected given his youth. The Braves were impressed enough with the huge swing-and-miss potential he’d shown to carry him in relief on their playoff roster last October. He has two options remaining.

Ynoa, still just 25, pitched at the MLB level from 2019-22. He turned in mid-rotation results (4.05 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk percentage) in 2021, although he was limited to 91 innings thanks to a self-inflicted hand fracture when he punched a dugout wall. He dropped into a depth role by the ’22 season, allowing a 5.68 ERA over 18 Triple-A appearances. He underwent Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of last year. He is expected to be a full participant in Spring Training. The Braves tendered him an arbitration contract but could send him to the minors for another season, as he has one option remaining.

The only player in this quintet who has yet to reach the majors, Waldrep is on a fast track to MLB. Atlanta’s first-round pick a year ago, the hard-throwing righty went from the College World Series in June to Triple-A by September. The Florida product had a brilliant 1.53 ERA while fanning a third of batters faced in his first eight professional starts at four levels (including one appearance in Gwinnett).

Atlanta is among the most aggressive teams in promoting its top prospects. As a college draftee, Waldrep is around nine months older than Smith-Shawver is. He has far less professional experience and isn’t on the 40-man roster, but he was drafted out of a strong program in college baseball’s top conference. Anthopoulos conceded it’d be ideal for both Waldrep and Smith-Shawver to have more developmental time but rhetorically asked, “if they come in and they are so much better than anybody else, how we do deny them?“

MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
  • Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
  • Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
  • Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
  • Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here

Braves Sign Reynaldo Lopez

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The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve signed right-hander Reynaldo Lopez to a three-year contract that will guarantee him $30MM. The CAA client will be paid $4MM in 2024 and $11MM in both 2025 and 2026. There’s an $8MM club option for the 2027 season with a $4MM buyout.

Lopez becomes the fifth name added to the Braves’ bullpen mix since their season ended, joining re-signed righties Joe Jimenez (three years, $26MM) and Pierce Johnson (two years, $14.25MM) and trade acquisitions Aaron Bummer and Jackson Kowar. Interestingly, however, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets that the Braves will have Lopez prepare as a starting pitcher this winter.

While the club isn’t necessarily penciling Lopez into the 2024 rotation, the Braves believe he can have success in either role and ramping him down from starting to relieving is of course easier than the inverse. Lopez’s specific role may not be determined until the spring, but it’s certainly notable that there’s at least a chance he’ll get another look as a starter with his new club.

Lopez, 30 in January, has plenty of experience in both roles but hasn’t had much success as a starting pitcher. Once one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, he went from the Nationals to the White Sox alongside Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the 2016 trade sending Adam Eaton back to Washington. While he gave the White Sox 32 starts and 188 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in 2018, he did so with shaky peripherals. On the whole, Lopez carries a lifetime 3.01 ERA out of the bullpen but a much rockier 4.73 mark as a starter.

Lopez’s career took off, in earnest, with a full-time move to the bullpen — a role in which he’s excelled for the past two seasons, albeit in different ways. The flamethrowing righty had a rough start in ’22 but was one of the sport’s most dominant bullpen arms over that season’s final four months, logging a 1.54 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate and 3.1% walk rate from early June through season’s end. Overall, his 2022 campaign ended with a sterling 2.76 ERA, a slightly above-average strikeout rate (24.8%) and an elite walk rate (4.3%).

In 2023, Lopez’s run prevention was again strong (3.27 ERA), but he took a different route to get there. Brandishing a fastball that was now averaging a blistering 98.4 mph — a 1.3 mph increase over the prior season’s already-strong 97.1 mph — Lopez punched out a huge 29.9% of his opponents. However, his 12.2% walk rate was nearly triple that of the prior season. He all but abandoned his curveball, throwing it at just a 1.2% clip (after 7.2% in 2022).

The 2023 version of Lopez was effectively a two-pitch pitcher: blazing fastball and hard slider (with a seldom-used changeup and curveball). He has, however, had seasons where he’s thrown both his change and his hook at a 20% clip or higher, so there’s certainly a diverse enough collection of pitches in his arsenal to succeed as a starter — if the Braves can coax better and more consistent results from his secondary offerings. If Lopez were to work as a starter, it’s only natural to think his fastball velocity would drop a tick, but he’s still have well above-average heat regardless.

To an extent, it’s possible that Lopez’s ultimate usage in 2024 depends on the remainder of Atlanta’s offseason. As things stand, the Braves’ rotation includes Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder. There’ll be competition for that fifth spot, likely including Lopez but also featuring top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver, veteran Ian Anderson (who’ll be returning from Tommy John surgery), southpaw Dylan Dodd and righty Huascar Ynoa. The Braves have been linked to some free agents of note thus far, and if they succeed in signing Sonny Gray or acquiring another veteran starter, that’d likely push Lopez more firmly into the bullpen.

If Lopez ends up in his more familiar bullpen role, he’ll join a comically deep group. In addition to the aforementioned Jimenez, Johnson and Bummer, the Braves will deploy Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek in what’s shaping up to be one of the most experienced and most talented collection of relief arms in the Majors.

Lopez’s $4MM salary for the 2024 season pushes the Braves’ payroll up to around $207MM, per Roster Resource’s projections. However, while its backloaded nature spares Atlanta some bottom-line payroll in the upcoming season, the contract still comes with a much heftier $10MM luxury-tax hit, as all luxury calculations are based on a deal’s average annual value.

The $10MM AAV on Lopez’s contract pushes the Braves squarely into luxury-tax territory, as they’re now at about $241.6MM of luxury considerations — comfortably north of this year’s $237MM luxury barrier. They also paid the luxury tax last season, meaning their penalty levels will rise. Rather than a 20% dollar-for-dollar tax, they’ll now pay a 30% tax (with increasing penalties if they surpass the threshold by more than $20MM total). They’re also in line for even harsher penalties come 2025, as third-time payors face even steeper rates of taxation.

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