Rangers Notes: Offseason, Otani, Bush
Rangers general manager Jon Daniels didn’t mince words in telling reporters that he has no plans to embark on a rebuild, as T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com and Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram write. “This is not a rebuild,” Daniels told reporters. “We expect to win. We are always going to have that mindset.” Texas will face an uphill challenge in filling out a rotation that, at present, has only Cole Hamels and Martin Perez locked into spots. Daniels acknowledged that the Rangers “are going to have to remake half the staff,” and as Sullivan notes, that applies to the bullpen as well, where Keone Kela, Matt Bush, Alex Claudio and Jake Diekman look like the only set-in-stone options. Per Wilson, Daniels suggested that team payroll will be more in the $155MM range at which it sat in 2016 than this past season’s $165MM territory. While the Rangers may not pursue a closer, they’ll look to bring in at least one veteran bullpen arm.
A bit more on the Rangers…
- Daniels was also candid about the fact that his team will be firmly in the mix for Japanese star Shohei Otani if he is posted for MLB clubs to bid on this winter. “We are not hiding anything,” the GM said. “If the Fighters ultimately post Ohtani, you are going to have 30 interested clubs, of which we’ll be right there with them.” Of course, as Daniels points out, competition for Otani would be immense. International spending restrictions would largely level the playing field to acquire his services, making it difficult to predict any type of favorite for the young ace/slugger.
- Sullivan also writes that the Rangers are once again internally mulling the possibility of moving right-hander Matt Bush into the rotation. Texas discussed the move last offseason as well but ultimately elected to leave Bush in a role with which he was familiar. Daniels tells reporters that Bush has expressed interest to the team in working out of the rotation, which bodes well for the potential transition. “If it’s the player who initiated and wants to put the work in, I think you’ve seen success,” Daniels explains (possibly in a nod to C.J. Wilson). “When it’s players who are in between, probably best to leave him in the role he is in.” Sullivan runs down six prior cases of the Rangers moving a reliever to the rotation, including Wilson, and examines their success rates.
Jerry Dipoto Discusses Mariners’ Offseason Plans
Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto discussed the next steps for his organization with reporters, including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Seattle trailed off late in the year and missed the postseason for the 16th-straight season, but it doesn’t sound as if a major roster shakeup is in order.
To the contrary, Dipoto stressed that he’s not anticipating anything approaching the kind of player turnover he oversaw during his first two years in charge of Seattle’s baseball operations. While he acknowledged there are “holes to fill,” he also said that he doesn’t expect “frantic movement” in the offseason to come.
Most broadly, the club’s top baseball ops official noted that his front office’s prior efforts have resulted in a more youthful slate of MLB talent that should provide a solid base moving forward. “I feel like we’ve made a significant move forward,” said Dipoto. “You just don’t really see it in the standings quite as much as we might see it in future planning.”
He also acknowledged that it remains a tall order to put together a team that’s truly competitive with the division-leading Astros. “That’s going to take some time and frankly a little bit of luck,” he said.
It’s unclear what kind of payroll space will be available for what moves the team does make. Seattle finished 2016 with over $170MM on the books and opened the 2017 campaign at over $150MM. Even if the team spends at that level again, there likely wouldn’t be much room to work with, since the Mariners already have $110MM on the books for 2018 before accounting for some significant arbitration salaries.
Looking more particularly at the roster, Dipoto suggested that he doesn’t see the M’s as being particularly in need of adding starting pitching. While he acknowledged that adding a quality starter would be nice, he indicated that the team is no more needy in that area than are most others around the league.
Dipoto sees both “depth” and “quality” in the existing staff. Notably, he also suggested that Seattle is prepared to utilize its staff in a more flexible manner going forward. “We’re going to see a different style of pitching staff and how it’s set up,” said Dipoto. “… We are adjusting toward what the world looks like now for starting pitchers, which is a 15-to-18-out starter (rather) than the complete-game starter.”
Of course, like most teams, the Mariners have interest in young Japanese star Shohei Otani, who is poised to represent a unique bargain given his unique circumstances. He’d represent a potentially game-changing addition to the pitching staff and Dutton says the club is going to do everything it can to land him, perhaps hoping its history with Japanese players will provide an edge. Dipoto did not comment on the two-way performer, but did note that he thinks it’s possible a player could see significant action as both a pitcher and hitter — though he added it’s unlikely that both could be done on a full-time basis.
Elsewhere, the club needs to add an outfielder and consider its options at first base. Dipoto said that the Mariners won’t necessarily need to add a center-field-capable player to cover for the loss of Jarrod Dyson to free agency, citing the potential to utilize Mitch Haniger and Guillermo Heredia up the middle. (Notably, though, manager Scott Servais did mention the need to improve on the bases, as Dutton reports. Dyson was easily the team’s best performer in that department.) That stance ought to help with flexibility as the Mariners sort through the options on the open market (and, perhaps, the trade market).
At first base, the GM suggested there’s a real possibility of bringing back Yonder Alonso, though he also emphasized that there will likely be “a lot of different options” to be considered. Certainly, the free-agent market has a variety of possibilities, perhaps representing opportunity to target a given player or to achieve some value through patience. Though he indicated that the team still believes in Dan Vogelbach and Evan White, Dipoto noted that it “remains to be seen” whether either will be a major part of the solution for the season to come.
NL Central Notes: Otani, Reds Affiliate, Cards Staff, Pirates
Reds general manager Dick Williams was on hand to witness what might have been right-hander Shohei Otani‘s final start in Nippon Professional Baseball, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Otani didn’t disappoint, as he held the Orix Buffaloes to just two hits while racking up 10 strikeouts in a masterful shutout. Per Rosecrans, the Reds have legitimate interest in signing Otani despite the fact that they’re prohibited from signing an international amateur — and Otani does qualify as an amateur under MLB’s 2017-21 CBA despite significant pro experience in Japan — for more than $300K. Otani’s decision to leave well over $100MM on the table to jump to MLB this offseason instead of two years from now suggests that money isn’t his ultimate motivation, thus giving Cincinnati and other clubs in the international “penalty box” some degree of hope. That said, Rosecrans notes that Cincinnati is still a long shot to sign Otani, who may land in the AL where he can serve as a DH when not pitching.
Here’s more out of the NL Central …
- The Reds have decided to add a lower-level affiliate, as Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. The Cincinnati organization will own and operate a ballclub in the Appalachian League, taking the open slot for a team in Greeneville, Tennessee. Jumping on this opportunity was part of a longstanding effort to add another lower-level affiliate, Buchanan notes.
- As the Cardinals look to improve upon a disappointing 2017 campaign, the team will change up the coaches working with the pitching staff, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Pitching coach Derek Lilliquist and bullpen coach Blaise Ilsley are both on the way out, with the Cards said to be seeking “a more modern approach to starter usage and bullpen deployment.” The St. Louis org says it hopes to make new hires in short order.
- This winter holds as much or more uncertainty for the Pirates, though it’s not at all clear there’ll be much roster change. Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tackles some fan questions in an interesting read. He predicts that, so long as the team doesn’t find trades for significant players, it will likely keep the same essential form as it had this year. (Side note: best wishes to Stephen as he transitions off of the beat into a new role, as he discusses in the link.)
Quick Hits: Otani, Rangers, Rays, Cozart, Paulino
Little is known about Shohei Otani‘s preferred destination if he makes the jump to Major League Baseball this offseason, though in a profile of the two-way star, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times wonders if Otani’s reputation as a “yakyu shonen” (as Hernandez puts it, “basically, a kid who lives, eats and breathes baseball”) could provide some hints. Otani is believed to be intent on coming to MLB for competitive reasons given his outward lack of interest in money. For this same reason, Otani may not necessarily be swayed by a wealthy team like the Dodgers or Yankees, according to Hiroshi Sasaki, Otani’s former high school coach. When choosing schools, Otani chose to play for a lower-profile high school closer to home rather than accept offers from larger programs.
Here’s more from around baseball as we head into the postseason…
- The Rangers seem like one of the four or five teams most likely to sign Otani, and possibly the favorite “if it comes down to the dollars available and a college-recruiting like pitch,” Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes as part of a reader chat. Still, Grant doesn’t believe any team has more than a 15-18% chance of signing Otani, since any number of factors could influence his choice.
- Perhaps with this in mind, the Rays are also “sincere” about their interest in Otani, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays usually don’t have the financial resources to compete for blue-chip international talent, though Otani’s situation presents a unique opportunity. The Rays can offer Otani a chance to both pitch and hit, and they can point to their willingness to let fourth overall pick Brendan McKay be a two-way player as an example of their flexibility.
- The Nationals have shown interest in Zack Cozart in the past and could be a fit for the free agent shortstop this winter, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe opines. It may hinge on whether or not the Reds issue Cozart a qualifying offer, though if the Nats did make a move, Cozart would take over at short and Trea Turner could shift to center field. (This would also move Adam Eaton to left field to replace free agent Jayson Werth.) Defensive metrics indicate that Turner’s glovework is better as a shortstop than as a center fielder, though it may still be too early in Turner’s young career to make that call one way or the other. Cozart, of course, is one of the game’s better defenders and is coming off an outstanding season at the plate.
- Astros righty David Paulino recently underwent surgery to remove bone spurs from his throwing elbow but is expected to be ready for Spring Training, the team announced (MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart has the details). Paulino was placed on the 60-day DL just as he was eligible to be activated following an 80-game PED suspension. The 23-year-old was cited on top-100 prospect lists from Baseball America (51st), MLB.com (54th) and Baseball Prospectus (83rd) prior to the season and he has gotten cups of coffee in each of Houston’s last two seasons, with a 6.25 ERA over 36 big-league innings.
Shohei Otani Interviewing MLB Agents
Japanese superstar Shohei Otani has not made anything official, but indications continue to gather that he will indeed seek a move to the majors over the offseason to come. After reports emerged recently that Otani was lining up to request that he be made available by his current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, the 23-year-old pitcher/outfielder has now begun to interview MLB player agents, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag.
It seems that Otani and those close to him have already begun the process in earnest, with a variety of well-known agents making the trek to Japan (even as MLB executives do the same). Heyman’s report suggests that the search for a rep is moving at a healthy clip, with Otani said to be possibly preparing to “begin a second round of interviews within the next week or so” after narrowing the field of possibilities.
Otani is widely regarded as the best baseball player in the world that isn’t currently wearing a MLB uniform. Given his age and immense talent (as both a pitcher and a hitter), there’s little question that Otani would command a nine-figure commitment were he free of the international bonus pool caps.
Because he is less than 25 years of age, and evidently does not wish to wait to make the move, Otani can receive only a minor-league deal that almost certainly won’t top seven figures. The precise bonus that each team can offer varies widely, but in no event can a team accumulate and dispense more than $10.1MM under the current system. And even those teams that could reach that figure will have committed some funds to other players. Quite a few organizations — including some that seem to be looking into Otani — cannot even give more than $300K to a single player, owing to penalties imposed under the prior bonus system. (Whatever team signs Otani would also need to send $20MM to the Fighters, though that element of the player exchange rules is said to be up for potential discussion before the offseason transactions get underway in earnest.)
With that backdrop, Otani’s meetings with prospective agents are all the more interesting to ponder. Just what he’ll prioritize in deciding upon a MLB team — geography, the ability to play both ways, likelihood of contention, marketing opportunities, long-term extension possibilities — isn’t clear. And his precise approach will surely be influenced by what he believes to be possible after this series of sit-downs.
Many have speculated that Otani could seek — and teams could offer — a handshake agreement of some kind to enter into an early-career extension. While the league has indicated it will police any attempts to evade the bonus pool rules, there seems to be a broad gray area that could theoretically be encountered. Just how far will Otani’s agents and organizational suitors go in weighing a future contract during initial talks? How long might they wait to formalize any such agreement? What would happen if injury or performance issues intervene to change the future expectations? These are fascinating questions that we won’t know the answers to for some time — if the issues even fully form — but the groundwork for how things may play out is being laid right now.
Giants Notes: Otani, Sabean, Belt
The Giants have seemingly signaled their intentions to partake in the Shohei Otani sweepstakes. As Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, GM Bobby Evans and AGM Jeremy Shelley each went to watch the 23-year-old Japanese star. While the Giants, like several other teams, would be limited to offering only a miserly $300K bonus to Otani, the organization does have a winning history and the city of San Francisco on offer. In any event, to the extent Otani does consider earnings, he’ll likely be more motivated by his second contract than his first — with increasing speculation focusing on the possibility that teams will discuss early-career extension scenarios in wooing the two-way player.
More from San Francisco:
- President of baseball operations Brian Sabean tells the Chronicle’s Bruce Jenkins that he began having some concerns with the team’s 2017 outlook in Spring Training. Needless to say, it became apparent rather early on in the season that things weren’t headed in a positive direction. Now, says the veteran executive, the club needs to “put a fresh look on things.” Among the needs: “to get younger, more athletic, and improve our defense.” That will be easier said than done, but Sabean says the organization will “have to be very open-minded and aggressive on the trade front” and will “have to be creative, and in some cases, bold.”
- Turning this general approach into specific moves figures to be the real challenge, of course. As Jenkins explains, the club has a variety of difficult player/contract situations on the roster. Interestingly, he reports that skipper Bruce Bochy “would welcome a new look” at first base. While Brandon Belt has never been a major source of home runs and has been limited by unfortunate concussion problems, he has also been a steadily productive batter — posting a 128 wRC+ in over three thousand career plate appearances. Indeed, just last winter the club awarded him with an extension that Jenkins now labels as “burdensome.” Attempting to upgrade, though, may well cost yet more and the likelihood of even achieving improved production seems rather dubious.
- If the Giants really decided they needed to move Belt, he’d draw plenty of interest due to his well-rounded offensive profile, though surely other organizations would be wary of the health concerns. Though he did just go on the 60-day DL — effectively ending his season — Belt was able to do some running on the field yesterday. He tells Janie McCauley of the Associated Press (Twitter link) that he has finally “turned a corner” and “just started feeling good,” which is certainly good to hear given the nature of his injury. Hopefully, Belt will be able to recover fully over the offseason.
- Sabean also chatted about some other topics of interest with Jenkins. He had kind words for Evans, calling him “driven and patient” while also acknowledging that his successor has overseen a difficult turn in the team’s competitiveness. And the veteran exec also touched upon the always interesting matter of weighing statistical analysis and scouting, crediting the importance of numbers while also offering a colorful explication of his belief in the importance of performing in key situations.
AL East Notes: Betts, Otani, Yankees, Mets, Pomeranz
Mookie Betts left today’s game in the fifth inning due to a bruised right thumb, suffered when his own helmet was knocked off by a Lucas Duda tag attempt and landed on the thumb. X-rays were negative and Betts told reporters (including MLB.com’s Connor Mount) that he hopes to play as soon as tomorrow. Betts also added that he has been dealing with nagging thumb problems “for a couple months” but it hasn’t been serious enough to keep him off the field. While this doesn’t look like a major injury, Betts is such a major part of the Red Sox lineup that his condition bears mention as the team heads towards a likely postseason appearance. Here’s some more from around the AL East…
- The Blue Jays have put particular effort into scouting Shohei Otani but realistically, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes that Toronto looks unlikely to sign the two-way star. On the plus side for the Jays, Otani has worked out with former Blue Jay fan favorite Munenori Kawasaki and the team seems willing to let Otani both pitch and hit. Beyond those positives, however, the Jays’ relative lack of history in the Japanese player market would seem to put them behind others in the running for Otani’s services.
- Less than a year after the Yankees and Mets signed Aroldis Chapman and Yoenis Cespedes to multi-year free agent deals, Joel Sherman of the New York Post doubts either team would make those signings again given how both stars underachieved in 2017. Injuries played a part in both players’ performance, of course, and there is still lots of time for Chapman and Cespedes to deliver on their contracts. In Chapman’s case, his relative struggles also haven’t kept the Yankees from leading the AL wild card race. With Chapman owed $60MM through the 2021 season, however, it’s still an ominous sign for the Yankees that this down year came in the first season of that deal.
- The Drew Pomeranz trade is looking like a win for Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox, WEEI.com’s John Tomase writes. After the controversial deal with the Padres last year that saw top prospect Anderson Espinosa go to San Diego, Pomeranz was plagued by injury problems that continued into the offseason. This year, however, Pomeranz has delivered a 3.28 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 2.59 K/BB rate over 159 1/3 innings, emerging as a much-needed stabilizer to a rotation that has been without David Price for much of the season.
Quick Hits: Otani, Syndergaard, Mets, Prospects
Japanese sensation Shohei Otani is reportedly primed to head to the majors in the offseason, but don’t be surprised if he changes his mind, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times writes. The right-handed ace/left-handed slugger did just that in the past when it looked as if he’d come to North America out of high school, but he instead decided to play professionally in his homeland. Some major league executives wonder whether an agent will talk Otani out of leaving Japan in the offseason, given that the 23-year-old would stand to benefit financially (to an enormous degree) by waiting until he’s 25. At that point, he’d be able to sign a mega-deal that would crush the relatively small contract he’ll land if he makes his way to the big leagues during the upcoming winter.
- Thanks in part to the international spending limits in the new collective bargaining agreement, where Otani will sign in the offseason if he does emigrate from Japan in the offseason is “shrouded in mystery,” according to Buster Olney of ESPN. “It’s incredible how many unknowns there are,” one evaluator said of Otani, who could consider factors such as geography, market size, friendships, endorsement opportunities and the designated hitter rule when choosing a team, Olney suggests.
- The Mets have some reservations about using ace Noah Syndergaard again this year, Matt Ehalt of The Record reports (on Twitter). Unsurprisingly, if Syndergaard does return in 2017, the Mets will need to be convinced he’s at full strength. The flamethrowing superstar hasn’t pitched in the majors since April 30 because of a torn right lat, and while he has been working his way back recently, there’s not exactly a need for the out-of-contention Mets to deploy him again this season.
- Newly retired right-hander Ryan Vogelsong could have continued his career after Minnesota released him in March, but he told Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters that he “checked out mentally” after the Twins cut him (Twitter links here). Vogelsong received minor league offers earlier this season, including from the Mets, but he didn’t want to move his family to Las Vegas – the home of their Triple-A affiliate.
- J.J. Cooper of Baseball America (subscription required and recommended) highlights 10 prospects who have taken major steps forward this year. The biggest name on the list is Phillies first baseman/outfielder Rhys Hoskins, who has mashed a record 18 home runs in his first 36 big league games since debuting Aug. 10. Hoskins gained more believers among scouts as he climbed closer to the majors, notes Cooper, who expects the 24-year-old to be a long-term impact player in Philadelphia.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Royals, Otani, Nationals, Dodgers
Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video from FOX Sports.
- The Royals‘ best course with potential free agents Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer might be to extend qualifying offers to all of them, Rosenthal opines. That would at least give them a windfall of draft picks if all three players were to sign big contracts elsewhere. The Royals seem to be running out of time to contend, and the extra draft picks would give them a head start on reloading.
- There has been some chatter about the possibility that teams could circumvent posting rules to lure Shohei Otani by promising to sign him to a small deal now and a big extension in the future. Rosenthal, though, notes that the league would not allow such an arrangement. Of course, as FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron pointed out, the signing team would have plausible deniability if it waited to officially strike the second deal until after Otani had played in the Majors for a year, since teams frequently try to sign top young talents to extensions. Such a deal would have to fit in with established precedents, however.
- The Nationals‘ recent promotion of top prospect Victor Robles underscores just how many outfield options the team will have even if Bryce Harper departs via free agency following the 2018 season, Rosenthal says. In addition to Robles, they have Michael Taylor, Adam Eaton and Brian Goodwin, all of whom are under team control for the next several seasons, plus another top young prospect in Juan Soto.
- The Dodgers‘ outstanding depth could allow them to use lefty starter Alex Wood and righty Kenta Maeda as multi-inning relievers in the playoffs, Rosenthal notes. That means the Dodgers would be able to use quick hooks on any starter having a bad outing.
Quick Hits: Pitch Clock, Otani, New Defensive Metric, Velocity
The age of the MLB pitch clock may be upon us soon. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported on Tuesday (subscription required and recommended) that MLB and the players’ union are working towards an agreement that could bring such a rule change to the major-league level as soon as next season. However, it’s also possible that the pitch clock could be introduced gradually over several years; the conversation is still in its early stages.
The potential for pitch clocks has been the subject of much controversy over the past couple of season, and began receiving test runs in Double-A as early as the 2015 season. The main reason is simple: the pace of play in baseball feels slow to younger generations, and Rob Manfred and his office are making wide-ranging attempts to take minutes off the game. We’ve seen small attempts towards this goal already, such as pitchers no longer needing to throw a baseball in order to intentionally walk a batter.
There are mixed feelings among players about the idea of a pitch clock. Jon Lester, for instance, has vocalized his distaste for years, complaining that it would take the “beauty” and “cat and mouse game” away from the pitcher-hitter battle (as ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers wrote a couple of years back). However, many pitchers at the minor-league levels said they found the pitch clocks did not impact them negatively. Regardless, Rosenthal writes that Manfred seems “convinced” that such changes are necessary, which makes it seem as though the introduction of pitch clocks is not a matter of “if”, but “when”. The piece is a great read, providing insight into the nuances and challenges of the discussion at hand.
More from around the majors…
- Two-way Japanese phenom Shohei Otani‘s potential earnings are severely by MLB’s international signing restrictions. But could teams circumvent those regulations by promising an early-career extension as part of their original signing agreement? Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron explores the hypothetical scenarios, suggesting that after one full year of service time — assuming Otani lives up to the hype — it’d be tough for the league to intervene with a contract extension so long as it carried some historical precedent. (Clubs do, after all, almost always attempt to secure young players on long-term deals.) A team would need to maintain plausible deniability, but the promise of an early-career extension could be a powerful incentive for Otani to join their club. With the ability to throw 100 mph and smack 400-foot homers, Ohtani could easily be a franchise icon, so it’s possible that some teams are already working on their “second offers” to him.
- While finding exact ways to quantify defensive value remains a difficult task, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello introduces a new metric intended to do just that by leveraging Statcast’s catch probability data: Outs Above Average (OAA). Twins center fielder Byron Buxton leads Major League outfielders in OAA, which is a counting metric that assigns value based on every catch made or not made over the course of a season. Petriello explains the metric in detail, but in essence, OAA gives credit for every catch made (+0.01 for making a catch to which Statcast assigns a 99% catch probability, +0.75 for making a catch with a 25% catch probability, and so forth) while also subtracting credit for catches not made (-0.01 for not making the 99% catch, -0.25 for not making the 25% catch, -0.75 for not making a 75% catch, etc.). Buxton has been 23 “outs above average” this season, while Atlanta’s Ender Inciarte checks in second (+17) and Tampa Bay’s Kevin Kiermaier is tied for fifth (+11) despite missing two months.
- Tyler Kepner of the New York Times wrote an interesting piece about how Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball has helped aspiring and current big league pitchers increase their velocity, including Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer and Marlins righty Dan Straily. Driveline’s training center reportedly has young pitchers throwing with weighted balls, and captures their biomechanics with high-speed cameras. The article is a long read but well worth the time.