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Shohei Ohtani

Crasnick’s Latest: Stanton, Ohtani, JDM, Darvish, Royals, McCutchen

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In this year’s edition of his annual Hot Stove survey (an always-excellent read), ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed 40 front office execs and scouts from around the league on nine offseason issues as this week’s GM Meetings kick off. Among the topics discussed, at length, are the possibility of a Giancarlo Stanton trade (and his likeliest destination), where Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will land, how much J.D. Martinez can command in free agency, and whether Yu Darvish’s poor World Series showing hampered his free-agent stock. Crasnick also polled the 40 baseball ops/scouting minds on multiple groups of free agents and trade candidates, asking which will provide the most value and which are likeliest to be dealt.

If you follow the offseason even loosely, you’ll want to be sure to read through the entire column, which is packed with quotes and insight from general managers, scouts and other front-office executives on the players in question and their potential landing spots. Some abbreviated highlights…

  • Three quarters of the respondents indicated that they expect Stanton to be traded this offseason, with nearly a third listing the Cardinals as the likeliest landing spot. The Giants were the second-most popular spot, though one scout tells Crasnick he has a difficult time envisioning that match, calling the Giants a “bottom-five farm system.” One respondent who felt Stanton would stay in Miami suggests to Crasnick that the Marlins may be underestimating just how much of the contract they’ll need to pay down.
  • The Yankees and Dodgers split the vote on the surveyed group’s likeliest destinations for Ohtani, with the Rangers not far behind. Several other clubs received a few votes, and four of the 40 respondents suggested that they believed Ohtani would remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2018. There’s still some work to be done with the league, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball before the posting process can begin in earnest. The agreement between MLB and NPB on the current iteration of the posting system expired this offseason.
  • The Red Sox were the overwhelming favorite when it came to the question of Martinez’s next team, though expectations for his contract varied in size. One GM pegged Martinez at around six years and $140MM, Crasnick notes. Some execs felt he’d fall closer to Justin Upton’s $106MM guarantee.
  • Only three of the 40 respondents thought that Darvish’s pair of World Series meltdowns would have a substantial impact on his offseason earning capacity. Crasnick’s piece has plenty of insightful quotes on Darvish — more than any other player — from the scouts that were polled. An AL scout tells Crasnick that 15 years ago, the World Series might’ve hurt Darvish, but in a largely sabermetric environment, his late struggles are a “void blip in the radar.”
  • Crasnick also asked respondents which of the Royals’ big three free agents (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) would provide the best value on his next deal, which of Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez had a better chance of reestablishing himself as a star, and which major 2018-19 free agent among Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado is likeliest to be traded this winter. I found it somewhat of a surprise to see Hosmer as the decisive favorite in that Royals question, though many scouts praised his glovework despite poor reviews from defensive metrics. McCutchen, less surprisingly, was deemed likeliest of his trio to go, while Gonzalez topped Gomez handily in their own respective face-off.

Quick Hits: Ohtani, McCann, Braves, Phillies

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A few notes from around the game:

  • Soon-to-be free agent ace/outfielder Shohei Ohtani spoke with the Associated Press and other media on Saturday about his desire to leave Japan for the major leagues this winter. “The other day I met with team officials and stated my intentions,” Ohtani said, referring to the Nippon Ham Fighters. “My request was met with warm words of support, so I hope to do my best in America from next year on.” The 23-year-old is renowned for both his pitching and hitting skills, but he noted that he’s “not a complete player yet,” which is his “strongest reason for wanting to go now.” While Ohtani does have “a strong desire” to continue as a two-way player in the majors, he admitted that he’s unsure if it’ll be possible.
  • Astros catcher Brian McCann told Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Friday that he’d like to end his career as a member of the Braves, with whom he thrived from 2005-13. “One hundred percent,” said the 33-year-old McCann. “One hundred percent. This is my home. I played close to 10 years here. This organization is really, really, really close to my heart. I love this organization.” McCann, a Georgia native who still lives there, will be a free agent next offseason if the Astros decline his $15MM option. Braves backstops Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki are also slated to hit the open market, which could pave the way for a McCann-Atlanta reunion in 2019 if the club’s interested in making it happen.
  • The team that makes a surprise splash in free agency is most likely to be the Phillies, according to a group of executives and agents who spoke with Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. “They say they aren’t doing anything, but I have a feeling they will go after someone big,” an exec told Feinsand, who points to right-handers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb as potential targets for the team. On paper, either would improve a Phillies rotation that ranked 19th in fWAR and 21st in ERA in 2017, when Aaron Nola was their only starter who turned in a particularly strong performance.

Nippon Ham Fighters Announce They Will Allow Shohei Ohtani To Move To Majors

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2:53pm: FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that, unsurprisingly, the Fighters will set the posting fee for Ohtani at the $20MM maximum. However, while MLB will sign off on the deal, Heyman notes that the Players Association still has some issues to work through before it will also sign off. Among their concerns, per Heyman, is the fact that the Fighters will recoup $20MM for Ohtani while the player himself stands to be paid only a mere fraction of that amount.

Heyman doesn’t suggest that the Union’s concerns will necessarily jeopardize Ohtani’s ability to make the jump to the Majors or that they could lead to a significant alteration in the current structure of the posting system. It’s unclear when the MLBPA will ultimately sign off, but it seems that their trepidation could delay the process to some extent.

7:13am: The Nippon Ham Fighters announced that they will allow star pitcher/slugger Shohei Ohtani* to come to the majors via the posting system, as the Japan Times was among the outlets to report.

That does not quite make things official, as Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball continue to try to sort out the rules that will govern the move. The effort had come into some notable difficulties, though Ohtani’s decision to hire a MLB Player’s Association-certified agent was expected to . And it seems the two leagues, at least, have reached agreement on a framework that could help facilitate Ohtani’s move — so long as his representatives, the MLBPA, and the Fighters are all on board.

At a minimum, today’s news seemingly formalizes the Fighters’ commitment to allowing Ohtani to depart. “Everyone in our ballclub accepts his thoughts,” said Fighters skipper Hideki Kuriyama. That also figures to ratchet up the expectations and the pressures on all other interested parties, helping to maintain momentum toward a finalization of talks — which will only represent the beginning of what could be a fascinating process.

[Related: Scouting Shohei Ohtani]

None of the talks will address Ohtani’s own earning capacity, which will be quite slight — at least on his way into the league. That’s the major reason that he promises to be the most widely pursued player ever to hit the open market. With only a few clubs even able to offer him more than $1MM in a bonus, the decision will surely come down to other factors, the precise nature of which — hitting opportunities? geography? comfort? promotional opportunities? promises of a future extension? — remain to be learned.

*Astute readers will note that MLBTR has now adopted a new spelling. Previously, for a variety of reasons, we utilized the anglicization “Otani.” We have now confirmed, however, that the spelling “Ohtani” is the formal spelling likely to be utilized in his potential transition to the majors.

Latest On Shohei Otani

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2:23pm: There’s a “tentative understanding” in place simply to extend the prior posting regime for another year, Sherman reports. The MLBPA has yet to weigh in on the subject, though, and there’s still not a final deal in place.

1:31pm: In the wake of Shohei Otani’s decision to hire a MLBPA-certified player representative, it seems that there’ll be a renewed push to figure out a way to resolve the impasse that has threatened to derail his planned move to the majors. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s a sense that the move will help facilitate an agreement that all involved will approve.

Indeed, Otani’s reps at CAA are scheduled to “meet soon” with the player’s association to attempt to get on the same page in an effort to sort things out, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. That’s just the first step here, of course, as Otani and the MLBPA will still need to engage with Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball — the two entities that are primarily negotiating a new system governing inter-league player transfers.

The difficulties here are tied to two factors: first, MLB’s rules capping international bonuses on certain younger international free agents; and second, the expiration of the prior posting system. There was a time when Otani’s current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, might have auctioned Otani’s negotiating rights for something approaching or even exceeding nine figures while Otani might have commanded a guarantee of as much or more. Under the just-expired transfer system, the Fighters would at least have stood to receive the maximum allowable $20MM fee. But that’s no longer how things work.

The transfer rules currently under contemplation would do away with the (up-to) $20MM flat-fee approach in favor of one that would allow the NPB team to earn a percentage of the bonus the posted player negotiates. If Otani was free to seek his market value, that wouldn’t likely pose a problem. But his earnings are now severely limited; while he is evidently at peace with that, his would-be former team is obviously not enamored of the possibility of losing its best player for what would be relative peanuts.

Under MLB’s current international rules, MLB clubs can’t go past their international spending pools (as supplemented via trade) to sign Otani. Those are even more limited than might be realized, though, due to teams’ preexisting commitments with young international players. (This was already known, of course, though the details remained fuzzy.)

According to a report from the Associated Press, only six teams even have enough uncommitted pool space to offer Otani seven figures. The Rangers ($3.535MM), Yankees ($3.25MM), and Twins ($3.245MM) easily lead the way, with the Pirates ($2.2MM+), Marlins ($1.74MM), and Mariners ($1.57MM+) also have some money to spend — or, perhaps, to trade to a would-be Otani suitor. For someone who is expected to be an immediate and significant contributor at the major-league level, that’s a pittance no matter the precise amount. Of course, he’ll also have a chance to make significant income off the field and through a future extension or trip through arbitration.

Shohei Otani Hires CAA

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Young Japanese star Shohei Otani has hired Creative Artists Agency (CAA) to represent him in his planned move to the majors, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Nez Balelo will be the lead agent, per the report, who’ll help steward Otani through what promises to be a fascinating process.

While news of an agency choice is rarely outwardly exciting, it’s particularly notable in this case. Otani is severely limited in what he can earn, but will be looking for a team that suits his other preferences — the precise nature of which remain unknown, but which reportedly include a preference to see time as a hitter as well as a pitcher. His representation will also be advising him about marketing and other earning opportunities as well as the possibility of ultimately securing a long-term contract of the type he cannot now obtain due to the international signing restrictions.

CAA, one of the larger agencies in the sport, evidently beat out several other major competitors to land Otani as a client. Some of the outfit’s notable clients include Japanese players Nori Aoki and Junichi Tazawa. CAA has negotiated quite a few significant extensions, including big contracts for Ryan Braun, Matt Cain, Adam Jones, Buster Posey, and Ryan Zimmerman along with more recent deals for Stephen Piscotty and Jean Segura. The agency also worked on contracts for Robinson Cano, Yoenis Cespedes, and Rusney Castillo in the course of its former partnership with Roc Nation Sports.

The most recent reports on Otani’s potential posting suggest all the more reason to take note of this decision. A negotiation impasse threatens to scuttle his move altogether, with the reporting indicating that Otani (through his agent) will likely need to play a role in resolving things. (You’ll want to read the full report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post to understand the situation in full, but in essence, the problem is tied to the confluence of international bonus limitations and the proposed modification to the posting system whereby Japanese clubs would receive a percentage of any bonus.)

While Otani’s reps work to sort out the transfer situation, teams will no doubt be interested in beginning to learn just what Otani will base his decision on if and when he’s formally made available by his current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters. Many have speculated on the points of a decision — the availability of a DH slot, geography, a history of successful Japanese players, willingness to do a significant early extension, etc. — but as of yet nobody really knows how the two-way talent will make up his mind.

As always, you can find the most up-to-date MLB agency information in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Negotiation Impasse Could Jeopardize Shohei Otani Posting

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Despite a variety of roadblocks, it has become widely assumed that Japanese star Shohei Otani would transition to the majors over the coming offseason. That possibility could now be in jeopardy, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports, owing to a dispute regarding the nature of the transfer rules that would govern the transaction.

Under the preexisting rules regime, Otani would have been made available to any Major League Baseball team willing to pay the maximum $20MM transfer fee. While MLB’s restrictive new international spending rules severely limited his potential earning capacity, he appears to be at peace with taking less now rather than waiting until he is old enough not to have his bonus capped.

Trouble is, the posting deal between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball just expired, leading to negotiations on a new agreement. Per Sherman, the approach contemplated was to allow the NPB team to receive a payout tied to the value of the contract(something in the realm of 15 to 20 percent of the total guarantee).

In the case of Otani, of course, that would have meant a drastic reduction of the money flowing to his current club, the Nippon Ham Fighters. While MLB would be willing to allow Otani to sign under the preexisting rules, per Sherman, that attempt at a compromise has run afoul of the MLB player’s union.

While the MLBPA does not count Otani as a member, and wouldn’t even do so upon his signing (since it’ll be a minor-league deal), it does have a stake here since the issue is subject to collective bargaining. According to Sherman, the union is concerned with the possibility that Otani will end up taking home a bonus significantly less than the value paid to the Fighters.

Ultimately, it seems that there’s still room for talks to sort things out. Sherman does not suggest that the union is interested in spoiling the transfer, for example; to the contrary, he says it is attempting to work with Otani. (That effort, he notes, has been complicated by the fact that Otani is still utilizing a Japanese lawyer and has yet to choose a MLBPA-certified agent.)

Even if things eventually get sorted, the news is quite notable. With the World Series wrapping up tonight, the open market will be fired up tomorrow. Teams shopping for starting pitching will begin negotiating in earnest, unsure of whether Otani will actually come — and, if so, exactly what he’s looking for in choosing a team. All things considered, the Otani situation is about as big a wild card on the market as could be imagined.

Quick Hits: Marlins, Chief Wahoo, Cubs, Otani

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The new Marlins ownership group apparently asked Hall of Famers Tony Perez and Andre Dawson to remain with the organization, but at a 75% pay cut amounting to a $25k annual salary. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports has the full scoop here. In a phone interview with FanRag, Perez said, “They say they wanted us in the organization. But we didn’t like the way they wanted us in the organization.” The debacle actually began with Marlins president David Samson calling Perez to tell him that the two were being let go. After a few subsequent events, Perez and Dawson were given the $25K offer and asked to spend their time with minor leaguers rather than the major leaguers they had developed a rapport with. Conflicting information came to the two Hall of Famers from Samson and Jeter over the course of a few days, leading Perez to describe the whole fiasco as “ridiculous”, adding that “it wasn’t right”.  They’ve rejected their respective low-ball offers and will no longer be a part of the Marlins organization.

Some other items across major league baseball as the Astros and Dodgers prepare to face each other in Game 4…

  • Yuli Gurriel’s use of a racial slur aimed at Yu Darvish has once again brought up the subject of the Indians’ Chief Wahoo logo. When asked about Chief Wahoo, Manfred said that he sees a difference between the logo and Gurriel’s slur, but that “both are problematic” (via Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times). Scott Miller of Bleacher Report adds in his own tweet that Manfred plans to deal with Chief Wahoo in the offseason.
  • The Cubs might be willing to listen on big-name players in order to acquire young pitchers, Phil Rogers of MLB.com reports. He lists Chris Archer, Marcus Stroman, Sean Manaea, Aaron Nola and Michael Fulmer as potential targets, noting that only Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras are likely to be considered untouchable. The Cubs’ starting staff finished with a 4.05 combined ERA last season, but could see former Cy Young-winner Jake Arrieta leave in free agency (Rogers cites the Rangers as a team that could potentially sign him).
  • Coveted Nippon-Ham Fighters ace Shohei Otani has been released from the hospital following successful ankle surgery, according to a report from the Japan Times. Otani’s recovery process will be one to watch, as he’s likely to be courted by all 30 MLB teams during the offseason as he attempts a move to the majors. Otani’s ankle injury can actually be traced all the way back to last October and has bothered him ever since, so fans in Japan and the US alike will hope that this surgery puts a firm end to any issues.

Shohei Otani Undergoes Ankle Surgery

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OCT. 12: The Kyodo News reports that Otani underwent surgery without complication and is expected to require a rehabilitation period of about three months. He’ll spend the next two to three weeks rehabbing in a medical facility before moving his rehab to the Fighters’ minor league facilities. Per the report, Otani is still expected to move from NPB to MLB via the posting system this offseason.

OCT. 11: Japanese star Shohei Otani is slated to undergo ankle surgery later this week, as the Japan Times was among those to report. It will address an injury that occurred this time last year, but has evidently lingered to some extent.

Otani’s outlook does not figure to be impacted too much by the procedure, though it’ll add another layer of potential complexity as he ponders a move to the majors. Per the report, and via the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, he’ll undergo “keyhole surgery to treat a posterior impingement.”

With around three weeks until the start of the offseason, teams are preparing for a fascinating pursuit of Otani. The two-way star, who evidently hopes not only to pitch but also to spend some time hitting at the game’s highest level, is widely regarded as the best talent in the world not currently with an affiliated organization. He’s also still subject to MLB’s international bonus rules, drastically limiting his earning power and potentially opening the door to a variety of suitors that might not otherwise be able to afford him.

[Related: Scouting Shohei Otani]

The biggest mystery remains just what Otani himself will prioritize if he does indeed follow through with the strong suggestion that he’ll ask to be posted. But he’ll also now have to show some heath information to teams, especially after a thigh injury significantly limited him this season. The plot will thicken considerably if Otani’s reps attempt to discuss a potential future extension scenario with organizations, both due to the possible health considerations and the grey area in the rules governing this sort of transaction.

Rangers Notes: Offseason, Otani, Bush

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Rangers general manager Jon Daniels didn’t mince words in telling reporters that he has no plans to embark on a rebuild, as T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com and Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram write. “This is not a rebuild,” Daniels told reporters. “We expect to win. We are always going to have that mindset.” Texas will face an uphill challenge in filling out a rotation that, at present, has only Cole Hamels and Martin Perez locked into spots. Daniels acknowledged that the Rangers “are going to have to remake half the staff,” and as Sullivan notes, that applies to the bullpen as well, where Keone Kela, Matt Bush, Alex Claudio and Jake Diekman look like the only set-in-stone options. Per Wilson, Daniels suggested that team payroll will be more in the $155MM range at which it sat in 2016 than this past season’s $165MM territory. While the Rangers may not pursue a closer, they’ll look to bring in at least one veteran bullpen arm.

A bit more on the Rangers…

  • Daniels was also candid about the fact that his team will be firmly in the mix for Japanese star Shohei Otani if he is posted for MLB clubs to bid on this winter. “We are not hiding anything,” the GM said. “If the Fighters ultimately post Ohtani, you are going to have 30 interested clubs, of which we’ll be right there with them.” Of course, as Daniels points out, competition for Otani would be immense. International spending restrictions would largely level the playing field to acquire his services, making it difficult to predict any type of favorite for the young ace/slugger.
  • Sullivan also writes that the Rangers are once again internally mulling the possibility of moving right-hander Matt Bush into the rotation. Texas discussed the move last offseason as well but ultimately elected to leave Bush in a role with which he was familiar. Daniels tells reporters that Bush has expressed interest to the team in working out of the rotation, which bodes well for the potential transition. “If it’s the player who initiated and wants to put the work in, I think you’ve seen success,” Daniels explains (possibly in a nod to C.J. Wilson). “When it’s players who are in between, probably best to leave him in the role he is in.” Sullivan runs down six prior cases of the Rangers moving a reliever to the rotation, including Wilson, and examines their success rates.

Jerry Dipoto Discusses Mariners’ Offseason Plans

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Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto discussed the next steps for his organization with reporters, including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Seattle trailed off late in the year and missed the postseason for the 16th-straight season, but it doesn’t sound as if a major roster shakeup is in order.

To the contrary, Dipoto stressed that he’s not anticipating anything approaching the kind of player turnover he oversaw during his first two years in charge of Seattle’s baseball operations. While he acknowledged there are “holes to fill,” he also said that he doesn’t expect “frantic movement” in the offseason to come.

Most broadly, the club’s top baseball ops official noted that his front office’s prior efforts have resulted in a more youthful slate of MLB talent that should provide a solid base moving forward. “I feel like we’ve made a significant move forward,” said Dipoto. “You just don’t really see it in the standings quite as much as we might see it in future planning.” 

He also acknowledged that it remains a tall order to put together a team that’s truly competitive with the division-leading Astros. “That’s going to take some time and frankly a little bit of luck,” he said.

It’s unclear what kind of payroll space will be available for what moves the team does make. Seattle finished 2016 with over $170MM on the books and opened the 2017 campaign at over $150MM. Even if the team spends at that level again, there likely wouldn’t be much room to work with, since the Mariners already have $110MM on the books for 2018 before accounting for some significant arbitration salaries.

Looking more particularly at the roster, Dipoto suggested that he doesn’t see the M’s as being particularly in need of adding starting pitching. While he acknowledged that adding a quality starter would be nice, he indicated that the team is no more needy in that area than are most others around the league.

Dipoto sees both “depth” and “quality” in the existing staff. Notably, he also suggested that Seattle is prepared to utilize its staff in a more flexible manner going forward. “We’re going to see a different style of pitching staff and how it’s set up,” said Dipoto. “… We are adjusting toward what the world looks like now for starting pitchers, which is a 15-to-18-out starter (rather) than the complete-game starter.”

Of course, like most teams, the Mariners have interest in young Japanese star Shohei Otani, who is poised to represent a unique bargain given his unique circumstances. He’d represent a potentially game-changing addition to the pitching staff and Dutton says the club is going to do everything it can to land him, perhaps hoping its history with Japanese players will provide an edge. Dipoto did not comment on the two-way performer, but did note that he thinks it’s possible a player could see significant action as both a pitcher and hitter — though he added it’s unlikely that both could be done on a full-time basis.

Elsewhere, the club needs to add an outfielder and consider its options at first base. Dipoto said that the Mariners won’t necessarily need to add a center-field-capable player to cover for the loss of Jarrod Dyson to free agency, citing the potential to utilize Mitch Haniger and Guillermo Heredia up the middle. (Notably, though, manager Scott Servais did mention the need to improve on the bases, as Dutton reports. Dyson was easily the team’s best performer in that department.) That stance ought to help with flexibility as the Mariners sort through the options on the open market (and, perhaps, the trade market).

At first base, the GM suggested there’s a real possibility of bringing back Yonder Alonso, though he also emphasized that there will likely be “a lot of different options” to be considered. Certainly, the free-agent market has a variety of possibilities, perhaps representing opportunity to target a given player or to achieve some value through patience. Though he indicated that the team still believes in Dan Vogelbach and Evan White, Dipoto noted that it “remains to be seen” whether either will be a major part of the solution for the season to come.

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