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Heyman’s Latest: Baez, Soler, Lackey, Tigers, D’Backs, Bruce, Yankees

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Here’s a postseason-flavored set of notes from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports…

  • The Cubs’ decision to keep Javier Baez has proven to be a wise one, and Heyman writes that the team kept Baez over Starlin Castro last offseason because the front office simply had more belief in Baez’s potential.  Not only did Castro carry a much higher price tag than the pre-arb Baez, but the Cubs infielder is already looking like the more productive player — Baez posted 2.7 fWAR over 450 plate appearances, while Castro managed just 1.1 fWAR over 610 PA for the Yankees.  Baez has shown great power and is cutting back on his strikeouts, though while he is still something of a work in progress at the plate, his defense has already drawn raves.  One NL scout tells Heyman that he thinks Baez could win Gold Gloves at multiple positions in the future.
  • Jorge Soler could again be trade bait as the Cubs will be juggling a crowded outfield situation.  Kyle Schwarber will return to play left field, plus Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist would seem to be penciled in for center and right, respectively.  That mix also doesn’t include highly-touted rookie Albert Almora, or if the Cubs were to re-sign Dexter Fowler for center field.  Soler drew a lot of trade attention last winter and is signed through 2020, so though he hasn’t truly broken out as a big leaguer yet, he would surely be a big trade chip if the Cubs indeed explored moving him.
  • The Tigers and Diamondbacks both “tried hard” to sign John Lackey last winter before the right-hander inked his two-year, $32MM deal with the Cubs.  Lackey reportedly chose Chicago over two larger offers, though Heyman doesn’t know if the Tigers and D’Backs were the clubs behind those bigger deals.  Arizona was known to have “at least checked in” on Lackey last winter, and while Detroit’s involvement in the Lackey market is new information, it isn’t a surprise given how the Tigers targeted starting pitching last offseason.  Either team landing Lackey sets up several fascinating what-if scenarios, given that the D’Backs and Tigers made alternate pitching acquisitions that didn’t pan out in 2016.  If the Diamondbacks signed Lackey, perhaps they then wouldn’t have made the franchise-altering decisions to sign Zack Greinke or trade for Shelby Miller.  If the Tigers had gotten Lackey, perhaps they wouldn’t have spent $110MM on Jordan Zimmermann, or $16MM on Mike Pelfrey.
  • There have already been reports that the Mets intend to exercise their $13MM club option on Jay Bruce for 2017, and a rival executive tells Heyman that retaining Bruce is a move New York has to make.  Keeping Bruce would create some defensive issues within the Mets outfield, though the exec noted that “if they don’t want him, they could always trade him.”  Bruce slumped badly after joining the Mets but he posted strong numbers in the season’s first four months, so he’d certainly draw interest on the trade market.
  • Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield were the two headline prospects sent from Cleveland to New York in the Andrew Miller trade, and Heyman reports that some Indians staff believe Sheffield could be the bigger loss: “Sheffield is a lefty starter, which you can’t find, Frazier is a corner power bat, which you can.”  It’ll be several years before we can access how that trade worked out for either the Yankees or the Tribe, though needless to say, nobody in Cleveland has any regrets right now, given Miller’s dominance.

Starlin Castro Strains Hamstring, Could Miss Rest Of Season

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Yankees infielder Starlin Castro suffered a Grade 1 hamstring strain while running the bases Saturday and could miss the rest of the season, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch notes. Grade 1 strains are the least severe type of strain, but could require a two-week recovery time. The Yankees are likely to use Ronald Torreyes and Donovan Solano at second base in Castro’s absence. The Yankees promoted Solano today after a .319/.349/.436 season for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

The loss of Castro is a tough one for the Yankees, who are currently 3 1/2 games back in the AL Wild Card race. Castro has batted .273/.304/.439 in 593 plate appearances in his first season in pinstripes, but he’s been hot down the stretch, hitting .313/.333/.571 in August and .310/.328/.483 in September.

The 26-year-old Castro will, of course, remain under team control for the foreseeable future, with the Yanks paying him a total of $30MM over the next three years, plus either a $16MM 2020 option or a $1MM buyout, as per the terms of the pre-arbitration extension he signed with the Cubs in 2012.

AL Notes: Astros, Alburquerque, ERod, Tazawa, Castro

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Astros GM Jeff Luhnow addressed a variety of issues today with Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. He suggested that the club’s first base mix may not be fully resolved this spring, with the organization remaining open to making changes over the course of the season. He made clear that Houston won’t just be relying on metrics in reaching its decisions, but is paying close attention to how the various contenders look against advanced competition this spring.

  • Meanwhile, Luhnow said, the Astros’ back-of-the-rotation competition may result in some bullpen time for one of Doug Fister, Scott Feldman, or Mike Fiers. But he emphasized that he expects “all three guys are going to end up making a lot of starts for us this year.”
  • The Angels are hoping that reliever Al Alburquerque will be able to bounce back after a tough 2015, and improved health is one reason for optimism, as MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports. Albuquerque says that he was hobbled for all of the spring and much of the regular season last year after contracting the Chikungunya virus over the winter. His fastball velocity steadily increased over the course of the year, and Albuquerque says he feels “much better” in camp.
  • The Red Sox now seem all but certain to go without young lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to open the year, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports. Though the swelling is down in his right knee, Rodriguez still hasn’t returned to the bump and manager John Farrell says there’s “still no time frame or date to get him on the mound yet.” With the club obviously exercising caution, and a full ramp-up still needed, it would appear to be surprising if he’s able to join the 25-man roster on Opening Day.
  • In other Red Sox pitching news, Boston is hoping that the decision to shut down reliever Junichi Tazawa late last year will help him regain his form in 2015, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. Generally a highly reliable pen arm, Tazawa seemingly hit a wall late last year. Now, pitching coach Carl Willis says he sees improved “late action to his pitches,” cleaner mechanics, and better location. The 29-year-old’s ability to bounce back will not only be important to the club, but will also determine his market standing when he qualifies for free agency after the season.
  • Reversing its prior stance, the Yankees don’t intend to prepare Starlin Castro to spend any further time at third base this spring, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. He’ll instead focus on settling in at second base and preparing to serve as the reserve shortstop, says manager Joe Girardi. As King notes, that could open up some additional opportunity for Rob Refsnyder to make the team as a utility piece.

AL East Notes: Yankees, Dickerson, Loney, Orioles

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The Yankees have done all of their offseason shopping on the trade market, and John Harper of the New York Daily News spoke to GM Brian Cashman, getting insight into each deal. Cashman said Aaron Hicks was identified early as a target due to age, athleticism and abilities versus left-handed pitching. The trade would’ve been difficult were it not for a “monster” year from Gary Sanchez. “We valued [John Ryan] Murphy highly but we knew it would take a lot to get Hicks,” said Cashman. “If Sanchez hadn’t had the year he had, we might not have been as willing to make that trade.” Cashman said that the Cubs initially asked about Brett Gardner when discussing Starlin Castro, but those overtures were rebuffed. He was also reluctant to give up right-hander Adam Warren, and the Cubs requested him for a month before Cashman caved. On the Aroldis Chapman front, Cashman said the Yankees never got close to acquiring him in July but circled back later this winter. The situation was difficult, considering Chapman’s domestic violence allegations, which Cashman said he discussed multiple times with ownership. He refutes the belief that he didn’t part with much to get Chapman, offering praise for Rookie Davis and stating that knee surgery is the only reason Eric Jagielo isn’t ranked among their top 10 prospects. Cashman also discussed the team’s stance on Andrew Miller earlier in the offseason and offered more quotes than we’ll get to in this brief recap. The entire piece is well worth a full read.

Here’s more from the AL East…

  • Dave Cameron of Fangraphs believes that the Yankees are perhaps the most underrated team in Major League Baseball right now due to the extensive focus on their lack of free-agent expenditures. While New York isn’t likely to repeat its offensive success, Cameron notes that the strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates from the team’s pitching staff yielded an xFIP mark that dramatically outperformed the club’s ERA, and historically speaking, there’s reason to believe that the ERA will catch up with the peripherals next season, to some extent. Starlin Castro represents an upgrade at second base, and the Yankees have the game’s best bullpen, Cameron adds, so even with some offensive regression and questions in the rotation, there’s reason to believe they can match or exceed last season’s 87 wins.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times spoke to Rays manager Kevin Cash as well as third baseman Evan Longoria about the addition of Corey Dickerson to the club’s lineup, and both had positive things to say. Cash spoke about how Dickerson will help to lengthen their lineup, and as Topkin notes, Dickerson is one of several offseason additions that will give Cash a better slate from which to choose when playing matchups. (The Rays have also added Brad Miller, Steve Pearce and Logan Morrison.) Notably, Topkin points out that the addition of Dickerson only further underscores the need to move James Loney and his $8MM salary, which would free first base for Pearce and Morrison and create more DH at-bats for Dickerson.
  • The much-expected addition of Yovani Gallardo to the Orioles’ rotation, if completed, would cause a crunch in the bullpen, observes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The Orioles have Zach Britton, Darren O’Day, Brian Matusz, Brad Brach, Mychal Givens and Dylan Bundy as “locks” to break camp in the ’pen, he writes, but adding Gallardo to the starting five would mean that both Vance Worley and T.J. McFarland would be competing for a spot in the bullpen. Without one spot remaining, one of the two would indeed seem to be left on the outside looking in, barring an injury of course.
  • Regarding Gallardo, MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli tweets that the ball is in the Orioles’ court at this point, adding that both parties seem to be optimistic about a deal being completed. Gallardo is reportedly said to be discussing a three-year deal, possibly one that includes an opt-out clause, with the Orioles.

Sherman’s Latest: Cespedes, Ramirez, Castro, Sano

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Several teams are gambling on successful position changes for core players, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. While it’s not uncommon for a team to sign a player like Jason Heyward and shift him to a new position for a couple seasons, these transitions don’t always go swimmingly. Sherman examines some of the biggest names to watch this season, and we’ll touch upon a few of them here.

  • The Mets were wary about committing to Yoenis Cespedes in part because of his shaky history in center field. As Sherman writes, Cespedes’ top defensive attribute is his arm. However, in center, range tends to be more valuable than arm strength.
  • Last season, the Padres attempted to shift Wil Myers from an outfield corner to center. His experience could serve as a chilling example for Mets fans. When he wasn’t battling injury, Myers graded out as an atrocious center fielder. This season, San Diego plans to shift Myers to first base. It’s yet another position at which he has limited experience. Interestingly, Myers has moved all over the field in his professional career – he started out as a catching prospect, and he also has experience at third base.
  • Another failed outfielder moving to first base, Hanley Ramirez, will be critical to the Red Sox success this season. Ramirez was a disaster in left field, but there is hope he can be more focused and healthier in an infield role. David Ortiz occupies the designated hitter role. He’s expected to retire after the season, meaning Ramirez could be shifted to a bat-only role after 2016.
  • The Yankees are taking a gamble of their own on Starlin Castro. The former Cubs shortstop hit much better after a shift to second base, but his defense still graded out as below average. Unlike Cespedes, Myers, or Ramirez, Castro looked merely below average rather than nightmarish. The Yankees hope that more experience at the position and smoother actions can lead to defensive improvement in 2016.
  • In an attempt to manage their corner infield and designated hitter surplus, the Twins are going to try prospect slugger Miguel Sano in the outfield. Sano, a third baseman by trade, doesn’t have professional experience in the outfield. However, his shift will allow the club to start Sano, Joe Mauer, Byung-ho Park, and Trevor Plouffe. In my opinion, the Twins might have been smarter to move Plouffe into the outfield. He has experience as a utility man and an established bat. Sano will now need to learn a new position while adjusting to major league pitching.

East Notes: Ozuna, Gordon, Francoeur, Mets, O’s, Castro

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Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna has enormous upside, assistant hitting coach Frank Menechino said in an interview today on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio link). Menechino noted that Ozuna’s early success came despite the fact that he was quite raw, explaining that he’s had to learn on the fly — even as expectations, contract considerations, and other pressures were converging. Ozuna, of course, has long been seen as a trade chip, although momentum seems to be shifting away from that scenario.

More from Miami and some other news from the eastern divisions:

  • The Marlins ought to make a long-term deal with Dee Gordon a priority, argues Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. After all, he suggests, his agents at Beverly Hills Sports Council might well try to argue that Gordon’s marquee accomplishments — leading the league in batting average, hits, and stolen bases while picking up a Gold Glove — support an outside-the-box arbitration payday. While MLBTR projects a $5.9MM salary in his second of four turns through arbitration, Gordon and his reps could always file for more and take their chances. Of course, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz explained in a recent podcast appearance (at about the 20-minute mark), Gordon’s meager home run and RBI tallies limit his arb-earning upside despite his other big numbers.
  • While the Marlins have been fairly quiet this winter, they are still looking to add some players. Jon Heyman tweets that the club has its eye on some right-handed bats, with Jeff Francoeur among them.
  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson and the rest of the organization’s leadership have managed to upset a segment of the team’s fans despite last year’s World Series run, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Of course, as Davidoff explains, appeasing a “populist” sentiment in the fanbase (as Alderson put it) with a big signing would hardly guarantee on-field success.
  • Young Orioles righties Hunter Harvey and Dylan Bundy are participating in minicamp and appear to be in good health, Roch Kubtako of MASNsports.com reports. Both have had very tough runs of bad luck, and certainly the organization will be holding its collective breath to see how they feel as they ramp up this spring.
  • Orioles skipper Buck Showalter said today that he could imagine slugger Chris Davis waiting to sign until late in camp, Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun reports. “That’s not surprising at all the way that camp does business,” Showalter said. “It wouldn’t surprise me if it went to February. It wouldn’t surprise me if it goes to March.” It’s probably not worth reading too much into those comments, since Showalter is obviously not privy to the specific strategy of Davis and his agent, Scott Boras. But his words do seem to hint at some frustration in the organization at the inability to achieve resolution one way or the other.
  • If the Yankees need someone to step in at third base for Chase Headley, the club could well turn to Starlin Castro, GM Brian Cashman suggested today. As Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees Blog writes, the newly-acquired infielder is still likely to spend most of his time at second, but his experience on the left side of the infield (almost entirely at short) could increase the team’s roster flexibility. Meanwhile, Cashman emphasized that Alex Rodriguez will not see time in the field.

Central Notes: Cubs, Perez, Nolasco, Reds

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Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein says his team’s deal with Ben Zobrist and its trade of Starlin Castro to the Yankees were a matched pair, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago writes. “This was a multiple-bank shot,” says Epstein. “We needed all the components of both deals to line up. That included the medicals and timing to sync up. We were not counting any chickens before they had hatched.” The pair of moves, in which the Cubs essentially used the money they would have had to pay Castro to fund most of Zobrist’s contract, will not limit the team’s options as its offseason continues to unfold, Epstein says. “Really, all the moves we were pursuing previously are still potentially alive for us,” Epstein said. “We don’t have to act out of need or desperation now. We now can be pretty selective.” Here’s more from the Central divisions.

  • The Rangers have had recent trade talks with the Indians, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan tweets. The Rangers are looking for a catcher, Sullivan notes, and the Indians’ Roberto Perez would make sense for them — he’s a good defender with a bit of hitting ability.
  • Ricky Nolasco’s contract with the Twins allows him to block trades to three teams each year, and Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN tweets that those three teams are the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays. As Wolfson suggests, that might not matter much right now — Nolasco has two years and $25MM remaining on his contract, and it doesn’t appear likely the Twins could trade him after two ineffective seasons, except perhaps in a swap of bad contracts.
  • The Reds have promoted Nick Krall and Sam Grossman to assistant GM, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. Krall had been the Reds’ senior director of baseball operations, and Grossman their senior director of baseball analytics. The team recently promoted assistant GM Dick Williams to GM.

Reactions To The Zobrist Deal & Castro Trade

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Here’s a roundup of reactions to Ben Zobrist’s reported four-year, $56MM pact with the Cubs and their trade of infielder Starlin Castro to the Yankees for Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan.

  • The Cubs are hoping Zobrist’s decreased production last year was due primarily to his knee injury and that he can approach the levels of performance he had previously established, ESPN’s Jonah Keri writes. WAR rated Zobrist as one of baseball’s best players from 2009 through 2014 and, as Keri notes, Zobrist’s versatility added value that WAR doesn’t reflect.
  • Zobrist’s deal should help move the markets for hitters like Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon, August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs writes. Fagerstrom also notes that the structure of Zobrist’s contract (which only pays him $10MM next season) and the salary-shedding trade of Castro to the Yankees strongly suggest that the Cubs can continue to make moves, particularly given that they were willing to bid heavily on David Price.
  • The Zobrist contract and the Castro deal improve the Cubs, but perhaps not enough to justify the expense, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Exchanging Castro for Zobrist and Adam Warren should improve the Cubs by “a couple wins” next season, but the end of Zobrist’s contract could be ugly, given that advanced fielding numbers suggest his defense has already declined.
  • Zobrist is a great match for the Cubs, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi writes. Since Zobrist rarely strikes out, he fits well with the strikeout-heavy Cubs offense, and since he can play multiple positions, he’ll help the Cubs find the best spots to use young players like Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez. Meanwhile, they can effectively pay three quarters of Zobrist’s contract with money they previously owed Castro.

Yankees To Acquire Starlin Castro For Adam Warren, Brendan Ryan

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The Yankees and Cubs have agreed to a trade that will send Starlin Castro to New York, pending medical reviews.  The deal will also see right-hander Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan (listed as a player to be named later) heading to the Cubs.

Castro, 26 in March, is a three-time All-Star that struggled mightily for much of the 2015 campaign but had a strong finish to the season and an even better showing in the playoffs. Overall, Castro batted .265/.296/.375 last season, marking the second time in the past three seasons in which he’s delivered a well-below average output on offense. However, the 2014 campaign was excellent, as Castro batted .292/.339/.438 with 14 home runs. The Yankees will be counting on Castro to look more like his 2014 and the late-2015 versions of himself over the course of the next four seasons that remain on his contract.

A total of $38MM remains on the seven-year, $60MM contract extension Castro signed three years ago. With the Yankees, he will, presumably, step in as the everyday second baseman for the foreseeable future. His addition calls into question what the Yanks will do with incumbent second basemen Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder, who had previously been slated to platoon in 2016. While one could remain on the roster as a utility option, it’s tough to envision the club keeping both players and Castro on the active roster next year.

Warren, 28, will give the Cubs a right-hander that was one of the more valuable swingmen in the game last season. The former fourth-round pick appeared in 43 games for the Yankees, making 17 starts and 26 relief appearances en route to a career-high 131 1/3 innings. In that time, Warren posted a 3.29 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 45.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are more or less commensurate with the production he delivered from 2013-14 while working almost exclusively out of the bullpen (101 relief appearances, two starts) and can be a reasonable expectation for him going forward. (If anything, one could perhaps forecast slightly better results due to the move to the National League.) He can be controlled for another three years in arbitration.

Ryan, 34 in March, exercised his $1MM player option this offseason. Ryan has not been terribly productive since coming to New York, taking just 289 plate appearances and compiling a poor .201/.244/.271 batting line over his three years with the team. Still, he is valued most for his glove and he can contribute at second base and in other infield roles.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter) and ESPN’s Buster Olney (on Twitter) first reported that Castro was New York-bound.  YES Network’s Jack Curry (Twitter link) reported that Adam Warren and a PTBNL were going to the Cubs.   Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted that the PTBNL was Brendan Ryan.  Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs, Yankees Discussing Castro Trade; Gardner Not Involved

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5:08pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that Gardner is not part of the current talks between the Yankees and Cubs. Sherman adds that the two teams are working on multiple scenarios in trade talks. Sherman also tweets that Jacoby Ellsbury isn’t involved in talks. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports characterizes the trade talks as “in early stages” (Twitter link).

4:53pm: The Cubs and Yankees are discussing a trade that would send infielder Starlin Castro to New York, report Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link). Rosenthal recently reported that the Cubs were in on Ben Zobrist but needed other moves to come together before they could bring him on board. Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reported last month that the Yankees and Cubs had discussed a trade involving Castro and Brett Gardner, though it’s not clear if Gardner is involved in this iteration of talks.

Moving Castro would open up second base to either give Javier Baez a full-time look or to clear a spot for a Zobrist signing. On paper, a swap of Castro and Gardner would make sense. The remaining $38MM on Castro’s contract is an exact match with the remaining $38MM on Gardner’s deal, though Castro is guaranteed that sum over the life of four full seasons, whereas Gardner is promised $38MM over the next three years. Both players have a club option on their deal — a $16MM club option for the 2020 season ($1MM buyout) in Castro’s case and a $12.5MM club option for the 2019 season ($2MM buyout) in Gardner’s case.

Castro signed a seven-year, $60MM extension with Chicago back in August of 2012 at the tail end of what was a second consecutive All-Star season for the then-22-year-old. Since that time, he’s sandwiched an excellent 2014 campaign in between a pair of awful seasons at the plate, leading to a cumulative .265/.303/.383 batting line from 2013-15.

Gardner, meanwhile, had a typically strong first half but wilted in the second half of 2015 as he battled a wrist injury. Yankees hitting coach Alan Cockrell told the Journal News’ Chad Jennings last month that a seemingly innocuous hit-by-pitch early in the season actually submarined Gardner’s production in the second half. Gardner’s bat began to fade once he had received the maximum-allotted three cortisone shots a player can have in any one season.

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