Starling Marte

The Marlins have presented a multi-year extension offer to star center fielder Starling Marte, report Jordan McPherson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Terms of the offer are unknown, although McPherson and Mish hear Marte and his representatives at Rep 1 Baseball are seeking a “three- or four-year deal in the $50 million range.”

Marte, who is playing out the season on a $12.5MM contract, is slated to hit free agency at the end of the year. Last month, he expressed a desire to work out a long-term deal to stay with Miami rather than test the market. Theoretically, the two sides have until the conclusion of the season to work out an extension, although McPherson and Mish suggest the July 30 trade deadline could function as a de facto extension deadline as well. If the Marlins and Marte don’t work out a long-term deal in the next few weeks, the 35-47 Marlins are expected to trade him, according to the Herald duo.

The Fish could also hold onto Marte through the end of the year and make him a qualifying offer going into the offseason. He’d almost certainly reject the QO, entitling Miami to 2022 draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere. However, Marte is playing well enough this season that a contender would likely offer the Marlins a prospect package more valuable than the compensatory pick they’d receive if he turned down a QO.

While a rib fracture cost Marte a month of action earlier in the year, he’s arguably playing at a career-best level when healthy. The right-handed hitter has slashed .294/.401/.453 across 202 plate appearances. His resulting 143 wRC+ (which suggests he’s been 43 percentage points better than the average hitter after park-adjustments) is the best mark of his ten-year career. That’s driven primarily by a demonstrably more patient approach, as Marte is walking at a 13.4% clip that’s nearly triple the 4.9% career walk percentage he carried into the season.

Considering Marte’s performance this year, his reported preference for a deal in the $50MM range seems more than reasonable. He’s set to turn 33 years old in October, which will cap the deal’s length. Still, he’s tracking as the unquestionable top center fielder on the market and has been among the top performers regardless of position.

Among position players scheduled to hit free agency, only Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien and Nick Castellanos (who’s almost certain to opt out of the final two years of his deal) have an fWAR greater than Marte’s 2.8. Castellanos, Correa, Nelson Cruz and J.D. Martinez (who has a player option) are the only members of that group (minimum 100 plate appearances) to have outhit Marte this season.

5:30pm: Although he’d be one of the best outfielders available on the open market this winter, Marte tells Mish that his preference would be to forgo free agency entirely and sign an extension with the Marlins (Twitter link). Marte says he’d prefer to spend the remainder of his career with Miami and hopes the team will approach him about a long-term deal.

8:31am: With the trade deadline less than two months away and free agency looming just beyond that, the Marlins haven’t discussed a potential extension with center fielder Starling Marte, general manager Kim Ng told reporters yesterday (Twitter link via Craig Mish of the Miami Herald).

Between the lack of extension talks and a recent swan dive in the standings for Miami, the 32-year-old Marte looks increasingly like one of the game’s likelier trade candidates as that July 30 deadline approaches. Marte missed about a month with a broken rib earlier this season, but he’s enjoyed one of the most productive runs of an already terrific career so far in 2021 when he’s been healthy enough to take the field.

In 110 plate appearances, Marte has raked at a .337/.436/.554 clip with four homers, six doubles, a triple and six stolen bases. He’s also walked at a 12.7 percent clip that is far and away a career-best mark. His chase rate on pitches off the plate (33 percent) is tied for a career-low, and his contact rate on balls off the plate when he does swing is a career-best (64 percent). From a defensive standpoint, Marte has ranked anywhere from average to slightly above, at least from a statistical standpoint (0 Defensive Runs Saved, 0.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, two Outs Above Average).

As of this writing, Marte is still owed about $7.9MM of this season’s $12.5MM salary between now and the end of the year. That $12.5MM salary was a sizable sum for the perennially low-payroll Marlins to absorb when they acquired him at last year’s trade deadline, but it’s an eminently reasonable (if not bargain) price for a player of Marte’s caliber and one that could be more easily stomached by a club with even a mid-range payroll.

The low-spending Marlins may not want to risk a qualifying offer for Marte at season’s end. Even though he’d very likely reject such an offer, assuming good health, that number figures to check in around the $19MM range this winter — a number that represents 30 percent of this year’s roughly $63MM Marlins payroll. If Marte did reject, Miami would then receive a compensatory pick after the first round if (or when) he signed elsewhere. In order to trade Marte, the Fish would need to feel they were receiving more (or at least comparable) value than they’d net with a comp pick in the 2022 draft.

There are very few center-field options on the market but multiple clubs in need of an upgrade in center, which should bode well for the Marlins if they do ultimately put Marte on the market. A pair of those clubs, the Phillies and Mets, are in the Marlins’ own division, which could complicate matters a bit. Others, including the Yankees and Astros, are on the precipice of the luxury-tax barrier and have been unwilling to cross that threshold in 2021. Miami could, of course, offer to pay down some or even all of Marte’s remaining salary in order to eliminate that risk for a trade partner; by doing so, the Marlins would be able to justify a higher asking price in return for a rental of Marte’s services before he hits the open market.

It’s been less than a year since the Marlins acquired Marte from the D-backs in a trade that sent lefty Caleb Smith and minor league right-hander Humberto Mejia to Arizona. The Marlins registered as somewhat of a surprise landing spot, given Arizona’s financial motivations for trading Marte away and Miami’s annual payroll constraints. He’s batted .289/.362/.482 overall with the Marlins and was part of the team’s surprising playoff push last year, and the Marlins will now likely recoup either a nice prospect return in a trade or a notable pick in the 2022 draft.