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Three Needs

Three Needs: Chicago White Sox

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With many needs to address, the White Sox added Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie, and others during the 2015-16 offseason.  However, the Sox again failed to reach a .500 record, which they last achieved in 2012.  They’re the next non-contending club up in MLBTR’s Three Needs series.

 1.  Put loyalty aside and install the best possible front office and manager.  Kenny Williams has been a part of Chicago’s front office since current shortstop Tim Anderson was a toddler, and Rick Hahn joined the organization more than 15 years ago.  The current arrangement, with Williams serving as Executive Vice President and Hahn as Senior Vice President/General Manager, has been in place for four years.  None of those four Sox teams won more games than they lost.  Even if we give the front office a pass for doing tempered rebuilds for a couple of years, they still had two failed winters of making win-now pushes.  The team’s short- and long-term prospects don’t seem much different than they were four years ago.  It’s time for White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf to put aside his loyalty to the Williams/Hahn tandem, and determine whether the White Sox would benefit from fresh voices in the front office.  If Reinsdorf does decide to dismiss or reassign one or both of Williams and Hahn, he’d do well to more clearly define the balance of power and autonomy of his executives.  In August, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported that Hahn was more in favor of a trade deadline sale than was Reinsdorf, with Hahn later denying any discord.

Manager Robin Ventura has held his position even longer than Hahn, with his fifth season as manager (and his contract) coming to an end.  Even if the front office remains unaltered, Ventura may be allowed to leave.  First baseman Jose Abreu recently suggested the White Sox lacked the same desire to win as the Royals, which could be the final nail in the coffin for Ventura.

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Three Needs: Arizona Diamondbacks

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MLBTR will provide a broader view of each club’s winter plans when our annual Offseason Outlook series kicks off at the end of the regular season.  Until then, the Diamondbacks are the latest team to be featured in our quick look at this season’€™s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Angels, Brewers, Twins, and Rays.

Arizona’s struggles this year are well documented, and need not be canvassed yet again here. Not much went right, leaving a host of areas to address, but these three are most pressing:

1. Sort out the front office.

Turnover in the baseball operations department is nothing new for the D-Backs, but this winter could again see change up top. Tony La Russa was brought in to provide overarching guidance in the sui generis position of chief baseball officer, and he oversaw the hiring of Dave Stewart as general manager and De Jon Watson as senior VP of baseball ops. With Watson already having been shown the door, the team is still holding out on deciding the fates of La Russa and Stewart, neither of whom is under contract past this season.

The longer Arizona waits, the less time a new hire will have to prepare for an important offseason to come. Club CEO Derrick Hall has suggested that a decision will come “relatively quickly,” and that certainly seems to be a wise approach — though an earlier call would arguably have been preferable. After all, roster decisions on current players and potential targets will begin in earnest about one month from now.

Whether the team should change horses right now is up for debate, though certainly there’s a growing body of evidence to suggest that’s in order. Regardless, two things seem clear: first, that some measure of certainty in personnel and approach is needed as soon as possible; and second, that some changes in the decisionmaking process ought to be made that allow the organization to better understand and navigate the ever-changing landscape of baseball transactions and player analysis. While the traditional approach has resulted in the identification of some nice assets — chiefly, Robbie Ray, Jean Segura & Welington Castillo — the D-Backs seem out of step in many instances in their market valuations.

2. Make the best out of the Zack Greinke contract.

That seeming market disconnect was as apparent in the handling of Zack Greinke as it was in the acquisition of Shelby Miller — and that’s before accounting for the struggles of both pitchers (particularly the latter) in 2016. Adding rotation talent and betting on a fairly talented core made plenty of sense, but the way that Arizona went about doing so was questionable at best.

The Greinke decision represented an unbelievable risk on a pitcher of his age for an organization that has carried about $100MM in overall payroll, about one third of which is gobbled up by Greinke’s annual obligation. His middling season wasn’t exactly the worst-case scenario — a debilitating injury — but in concert with the fall-off elsewhere, it changes the calculus for the organization moving forward.

It would be silly for the Snakes to dump Greinke for the highest offer while his value is down and he’s still on the relatively youthful side of his contract. Unlike Miller, the veteran hurler was mostly himself — with some expected regression, added home runs, and perhaps a bit of poor fortune and park effects combining for a dud of a season. It’s reasonable to think that he could still boost his value and hold significant appeal at the 2017 trade deadline, if not sooner.

Still, the organization’s apparent approach on Greinke — so far as has been reported — seems a bit concerning. A report in late July suggested that Arizona was not only demanding “a great return of players” in trade talks, but wouldn’t consider eating any of the salary. And the most recent word is that the La Russa/Stewart front office isn’t interested in listening on Greinke over the winter.

To reiterate, I’m not advocating here for any specific course of action. And there could certainly be some public posturing at play. But the fact is, Greinke the player isn’t worth the contract ($157.5MM, some of it deferred, through 2021) — which was arrived at in a highly competitive bidding situation after the righty had wrapped up a career-best season. Even accepting that he remains a top-quality starter, it’s not reasonable to value him as a player asset the way that the reports have suggested.

The bottom line: whether or not the team ends up trading Greinke, it needs to approach the matter with a realistic assessment in order to make appropriate decisions. After hopefully getting him righted, I’d argue, the team needs to begin thinking about how it can get out from under what could end up being a disastrous financial commitment.

3. Work around the edges.

There’s just under $60MM on the D-Backs’ books for 2017, but that will balloon with arbitration raises for players like Miller, Castillo, Segura, Patrick Corbin, Rubby De La Rosa, and Chris Owings. Assuming that ownership doesn’t authorize a big move up over the approximately $100MM current roster spend, there probably won’t be much room to add major pieces.

Really, though, the team isn’t desperately in need of one or two big pieces — as it thought it was last winter. Just finding solid players in a few areas would go quite a long way. Adding even 1.5 to 2 WAR types of assets is harder than it sounds, but those kinds of incremental gains ought to be the focus.

Thus far in 2016 for the Diamondbacks, only four positions — first base, second base, third base, and catcher — have featured average or better production. Just two members of the rotation cracked 1.5 fWAR, and the team already has or will soon part with a few of its better relievers. In many ways, it has turned out to be a top-heavy roster.

The good news is that the team can hope for healthier and/or more productive campaigns from players such as A.J. Pollock, David Peralta, Owings, De La Rosa, and Paul Goldschmidt — as well as Greinke and Miller — while banking on continued strides from a few young hurlers, including Archie Bradley, who actually turned in a reasonably promising campaign despite an unsightly 5.02 ERA. But injuries and performance variations are inevitable, and Arizona must do a better job of having options on hand both to share time when appropriate and to fill in when necessary.

Despite taking 200 or more plate appearances in 2016, Owings, Yasmany Tomas (who ought to be in the A.L.), Nick Ahmed, Michael Bourn, Rickie Weeks, and Phil Gosselin were all approximately replacement-level performers. In the rotation, hurlers such as Miller, Patrick Corban, Zack Godley, and Braden Shipley were marginal in nine or more starts. (I won’t endeavor to name all of the club’s middling relief performances.)

Again, Arizona will surely hope that some of those names will turn up on the stat sheet as positives in the season to come. But a few well-placed trades and signings, as well as well-conceived decisions on less-established players, could transform the supporting cast into one capable of supporting a winner (assuming, at least, that the core can restore its former luster).

While the Snakes may not have much money to brandish, they do have the ability to offer roster space and opportunities for playing time, which are important assets in their own right when properly deployed. That’s especially true in the outfield, which was easily the worst unit in the majors this year with Pollock gone, Peralta hurt, and Ender Inciarte playing in Atlanta. Such a piecemeal strategy may not be terribly likely to result in a full-blown turnaround, but that’s probably the only way that the organization can hope to squeeze through its self-appointed window of contention.

Three Needs: Tampa Bay Rays

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MLBTR will provide a broader view of each club’s winter plans when our annual Offseason Outlook series kicks off at the end of the regular season.  Until then, the Rays are the latest team to be featured in our quick look at this season’€™s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Angels, Brewers, and Twins.

Things fell apart this year for Tampa Bay, which entered with hopes that a deep rotation and bolstered offense would spur a return to the playoffs. Instead, the club vanished into the basement of the AL East — a place it hadn’t visited since 2007 — and ended up dealing away Matt Moore, Brandon Guyer, and Steve Pearce at the trade deadline.

Still, the most significant of those trades, the Moore swap, brought back a controllable major league asset in Matt Duffy — who, they hope, will fill a need at shortstop — and the organization continues to field a number of affordable players with reasonable promise. A full-blown rebuild seems unlikely for a team that has typically focused on remaining competitive even while hunting for value and exchanging increasingly expensive veterans for youthful talent.

Operating on the presumption that the Rays don’t intend to shop their best assets this winter, preferring instead to build around their core, here are three areas where the team has significant needs this winter:

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Three Needs: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins are up next in MLBTR’s Three Needs series, and while isolating three individual needs for a team with the worst record in Major League Baseball is a tall order, here are three aspects that the organization needs to shore up in order to facilitate a return to relevance in the AL Central…

1. Improve the player development process. There’s been plenty written about the Twins’ lack of embracing analytics, and while hiring a president of baseball operations that will embrace data and statistical analysis more than the preceding regime is indeed important, owner Jim Pohlad and president Dave St. Peter should also be looking to bring in an executive with a strong background in player development. The Twins have long had one of the game’s top-rated farm systems, yet time and time again the fruits of their vaunted minor league ranks struggle tremendously upon reaching the Major Leagues. Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton were rushed, thereby explaining some of their struggles. Buxton is finally showing some promise, but Hicks has already been traded and has yet to develop into a regular player.

No one would make the case that Jose Berrios was rushed, but has been shelled in virtually every start he has made in the Majors this season. The list of Twins prospects that ranked comfortably within the top 100 from outlets such as Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus but failed to deliver on that hype at the big league level is long. Kyle Gibson has shown little consistency in the Majors, Oswaldo Arcia has been designated for assignment by three organizations this year and Eddie Rosario hasn’t given any indication that his OBP is ever going to top .300. Alex Meyer has only made four big league starts — three of which have come with the Angels (though shoulder injuries have played a large role in his lack of contribution). Organizational top prospects like Danny Santana, Trevor May and Kennys Vargas have shown glimpses of usefulness but to this point have lacked consistency (Santana, in particular, seems to be at a crossroads).

The best pitcher the Twins have drafted in the past 15 years was Matt Garza, who was traded before ever pitching a full season in Minnesota. Following that, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Gibson are the only starters drafted and developed by the Twins in that stretch that have made any real degree of impact at the MLB level. The Twins took Kohl Stewart with the fourth overall pick in 2013, but his raw stuff has yet to generate strikeouts and his stock has already dipped to the point where he’s fallen off of most prospect lists. For an organization that can rarely spend at high levels on the open market, the complete dearth of homegrown pitching talent is glaring — and it’s probably the chief reason that the Twins have been in the division cellar in five of the past six seasons.

That ties in nicely with the next need on this list…

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Three Needs: Milwaukee Brewers

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MLBTR will provide a broader view of each club’s winter plans when our annual Offseason Outlook series kicks off at the end of the regular season.  Until then, the Brewers are the latest team to be featured in our quick look at this season’€™s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Angels.

Milwaukee GM David Stearns has continued to engineer a rebuild that was kicked off by his predecessor, Doug Melvin. The payroll is way down and the high-priced veterans have mostly been cleared out, but it has taken place in a fairly methodical manner thus far with largely positive results (despite the anticipated, subpar record). Here are three needs for the organization as the offseason approaches:

[Brewers Depth Chart]

1. Trade Ryan Braun.

I know, very edgy choice. Braun is the last remaining Brewers player who is promised money past the 2017 season, making him an obvious trade candidate. (Only one other — Matt Garza — has a guaranteed contract next year.) On the one hand, that means, that the club doesn’t need to move Braun just to pare down the costs; even with him this year, the payroll sat at just over $60MM on Opening Day and has receded since.

The key here, though, is timing. Milwaukee has prospered immensely from selling at the right moment on players such as Carlos Gomez (traded before a fall-off) and Jonathan Lucroy (traded after he rebuilt value). You could argue the same, in varying ways, of hurlers Mike Fiers, Jeremy Jeffress, and Will Smith.

With Braun, the question has never been talent or productivity. But he has a sketchy injury history, carries the stain of a PED melodrama, and turns 33 in two months. The $76MM left on his contract over four years remains a bit of a limiting factor, but is a pretty fair price for a player who owns a .306/.371/.537 slash with 27 home runs and 15 steals.

It’s unlikely at this point that Braun’s value will ever be higher, and there’s a chance it could tumble. Whether he goes to the Dodgers or elsewhere, the coming offseason is probably the time to finish clearing the books. (Moving Garza, too, could make sense — either in a winter bereft of open-market pitching talent or after giving him a chance to boost his value in the first half of 2017.)

2. Find the next Junior Guerra …

Or the next Jonathan Villar. Or, really, just the next Chris Carter or even Aaron Hill. Stearns’s first move as a GM — plucking Guerra off the waiver wire — remains his most impressive. But he has proven adept at finding hidden gems from free and cheap talent pools. All the guys he’s tried out haven’t worked, but plenty have. Better still, the most notable success stories thus far have not only been cheap, but have had service time remaining, greatly increasing the upside/expense ratio.

So, who’s the next candidate? If I knew that, I’d probably be peddling the information to a major league team. But while organizations desperate for near-term production will feel compelled to plunk down several million dollars for the best-bet bounceback veterans, odds are that Stearns will be mining the ranks of underappreciated journeymen who have shown a spark and intriguing young players who aren’t going to keep roster spots with their organizations.

These players have plenty of function just by showing up, because they help prop up the quality of the on-field production at virtually no cost. What will be most interesting to see, though, is whether Milwaukee can begin to parlay these bargain finds into real value — either by flipping some of the players in trades or deploying them during a winning season.

3. Chart out an ascension plan. 

Call me crazy, but I think things could move fairly quickly for the Brewers. Unlike other recent tear-down situations, Milwaukee has not really had to offload huge and burdensome contracts; the veterans they have dealt have been appealing players who brought good, high-level young talent.

To be sure, I’m not advocating for the club to ramp up spending in anticipation of contending in 2017. But there are some benefits to planning for an optimistic scenario, which might include something in the vicinity of a .500 record next year with some more upward mobility to follow. Doing so in a measured way would allow the club to build toward contention without weighing down the future balance sheet.

With that in mind, perhaps the Brewers don’t need to keep a perfectly pristine balance sheet for the entirety of the near-future. Adding some well-conceived, reasonably youthful talent through free agency or trade isn’t only a strategy for larger-budget rebuilders — at least when a team’s payroll is already low. In Milwaukee’s case, there are a few arb raises to account for in 2017, but none that figure to make much of a dent. Perhaps being willing to pay a bit for one or more mid-level, health-concern/bounceback free agents — Luis Valbuena, Neil Walker, Charlie Morton, Andrew Cashner, or (dare I say it) Carlos Gomez are a few who come to mind — could be a viable strategy.

Three Needs: Los Angeles Angels

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At this point of the season, the focus for many teams has largely shifted to the upcoming offseason. While ten American League clubs are still within shouting distance of postseason position, only six teams are clear contenders for the five N.L. berths (with the Marlins, Pirates, and Rockies all hanging on by a thread with losing records).

After the season concludes, we’ll be looking at every team in the league in depth with MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series. For the time being, though, we’re taking preliminary big-picture looks at what some of the non-contending clubs will need to focus on in order to reverse their current standing.

We’ll start with a disappointing Angels club:

[View Angels Depth Chart]

1. Increase the flow of the talent pipeline.

If you check in on the Angels’ top prospect list on MLB.com, you’ll find that the first four players listed were all taken in the first two rounds of the 2015 and 2016 drafts. That’s representative of the state of the Halos’ farm, which is in the beginning stages of a much-needed farm restocking. A top-ten pick in next year’s draft will help — plus, it’ll be protected if the club signs a qualifying offer-bound free agent — but GM Billy Eppler will need to find ways to ramp up the talent intake beyond waiting for the team’s turn to draft. Unfortunately, the Angels are still disqualified from handing out $300K+ bonuses in the current international signing period owing to the seemingly ill-fated signing of Roberto Baldoquin. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, the team has been trading its slots for speculative minor leaguers rather than spending all its available funds on even younger international talent. Whether that particular strategy will pay off remains to be seen, but it seems incumbent upon the Angels to turn over all the stones they can find to load up the pipeline with future big league assets — both to get cheap players onto the roster and to generate trade pieces. Taking on cash in trades to pick up prospects may be tough given that the organization already has $100MM on its books for 2017 and about $75MM for each of the three seasons that follow, but that’s something of the approach that they took in acquiring Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer from the Twins. If some kind of partial reboot can’t be pulled off while still trying to contend, the nuclear option — trading Mike Trout — will be increasingly plausible.

2. Build up rotation depth.

Matt Shoemaker was having a nice season before his unfortunate injury, but he is the sole member of the Angels’ rotation who has been worth even a single win above replacement in 2016. Health obviously played a major role, but that’s not exactly a surprise given the attrition rate of major league pitchers. The cross-town Dodgers also lost a host of starters, but managed to stay afloat; the A.L. entrant from Los Angeles simply wasn’t able to reach into the reserves that its neighboring N.L. competitors were. The Angels ended up making mid-season acquisitions (Tim Lincecum, Jhoulys Chacin) in a desperate bid to find useful innings, and it just didn’t work out. Whether Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs can turn in full seasons will obviously be critical to the 2017 campaign, but the organization needs to find a way not only to plug in quality rotation pieces, but also to fill in when the arm problems all-but-inevitably arise. There’s going to be plenty of competition for the few appealing free agent pitchers available, and the Angels already dealt away their two best pitching prospects last winter to get Andrelton Simmons. Eppler and co. will need to do a better job of identifying the right under-valued hurlers to cobble together a serviceable staff. Plus, the team will need to find a way to complete the development of upper-level pitching prospects such as Meyer, Nate Smith, and Victor Alcantara.

3. Improve on the bases.

The Angels’ position players have combined this year to produce the league’s ninth-best results at the plate (by measure of wRC+) and were collectively slightly above-average on defense, but the club as a whole ranks dead last in Fangraphs’ total baserunning metric (BsR). That hasn’t been the case in recent years, but many of the team’s roster changes have brought in poorly-rated baserunners (Yunel Escobar, especially). Clearly, the Halos need to consider much more than wheels in filling in their numerous areas of need, which (still) include second base, left field, and catcher as well as the bench. But perhaps infusing some speed — and contemplating ways that the organization can improve its general approach — would be a somewhat subtle way to find value with a limited supply of talent available on the upcoming free agent market.

Three Needs: Chicago White Sox

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MLBTR will provide a broader view of each club’s winter plans when our annual Offseason Outlook series kicks off at the end of the regular season.  Until then, the White Sox are the latest team to be featured in our quick look at this season’€™s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Marlins, Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Phillies, and now let’s jump to the American League to look at the White Sox.  A high-profile 2014-15 offseason had Chicago looking to vault back into contention, but instead they head into the final week battling to avoid the AL Central basement.  Here are a few areas that the Sox will surely address in the coming months…

1. Improve the defense.  Heading into today’s action, the White Sox ranked last among all teams in UZR/150 (-7.0) and third-last in Defensive Runs Saved (-40).  Among Chicago players who played at least 900 innings in the field, second baseman Carlos Sanchez was the only one to post a positive UZR/150 or DRS total.  Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton at least hit well enough to overshadow their poor glove work, while Alexei Ramirez, Melky Cabrera, Avisail Garcia and Adam LaRoche all posted below-average hitting totals along with shaky defense.  The Sox can upgrade the defense at shortstop by declining their $10MM club option on Ramirez for 2016 (possibly replacing him with Tyler Saladino as a bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson, as CSN Chicago’s Dan Hayes has suggested) and in right by moving Garcia to a part-time role.  Sanchez and Saladino haven’t shown much at the plate as big leaguers, though if they keep up their strong defense, the White Sox may be willing to live with a couple of weak lineup spots.  That said, if the team goes defense-first at a couple of positions, then they really need to focus on the other seven lineup spots in order to…

2. Improve the offense.  As noted, Chicago simply had too many players who weren’t contributing either offensively or defensively in 2015.  Aside from first base (Abreu) and center field (Eaton), you could argue that the White Sox could look for an upgrade at every other position on the field.  Chicago is still hopeful that prospect Micah Johnson can blossom at second base in the wake of a fairly lackluster rookie year, plus Saladino and Sanchez could yet perhaps form a defense-first platoon at short if Ramirez isn’t brought back.

Cabrera and LaRoche are owed a combined $25MM in 2016, making them virtually unmovable for trade purposes, so the Sox might consider some kind of timeshare between the two and Abreu, where Abreu plays every day at either first or DH and LaRoche/Cabrera is in the other spot.  Garcia probably won’t generate a big arbitration number in his first year of eligibility and he’s young enough to be kept, though an everyday spot has to be out of the question.  These moves would open up both corner outfield spots for either a new addition or rookie Trayce Thompson, who has been very impressive since debuting in August.

This leaves third base and catcher as possible areas that could be augmented by the addition of a proven regular.  The White Sox will likely try to bring back Geovany Soto to pair with Tyler Flowers, though Chicago could also decide to make a bigger splash with a larger-name backstop.

3. Decide on how much to spend this winter.  While not many of GM Rick Hahn’s offseason moves paid off, the White Sox aren’t in bad financial shape.  The club has roughly $88MM committed to nine players for 2016, and Flowers (who earned a modest $2.675MM in 2015) is probably the most notable of a handful of arb-eligible players.  Hahn could therefore have maybe $20-$25MM to work with if owner Jerry Reindorf is willing to match this year’s payroll figure.  This might not be a slam-dunk of an if, however — I could see Reinsdorf authorizing one major free agent signing but don’t expect a repeat of last winter’s acquisition spree given this season’s disappointing results.  Slowing down to a full rebuild isn’t likely given that the club doesn’t want to waste another season of Abreu or Chris Sale in their prime, though Hahn may have to get a bit creative in making additions or perhaps in swapping a bad contract or another.

Looking at the list of this winter’s free agents, there aren’t any third basemen on the open market who would merit a huge contract and no catchers either, save perhaps Matt Wieters (who is no sure thing given his injury history and underwhelming 2015 numbers).  This is just my speculation, but Ben Zobrist strikes me as a good free agent target for a White Sox team that is lacking at so many positions.  Zobrist’s versatility could allow the Sox to use him every day around the diamond, and give them some flexibility in addressing other spots.  If Chicago was to make just one “big signing,” a player like Zobrist would be a good fit.

Three Needs: Miami Marlins

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As the offseason approaches, we continue to outline the potential goals of this season’s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Brewers, Reds and Phillies, and the next team in line is the Miami Marlins.

Before the 2015 season, the Marlins had a splashy winter in which they extended Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich and acquired Mat Latos, Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, Martin Prado, Michael Morse and Ichiro Suzuki, among others. But they suffered through injuries and quickly fired manager Mike Redmond, and now they’re 20 games below .500, in third place only because they’re in a very weak NL East division. Here are a few areas the club could address this offseason.

1. Solidify leadership positions. After dismissing Redmond, the Marlins made the unusual decision of moving GM Dan Jennings to the manager position. The move wasn’t a disaster, but it wasn’t a rousing success either. This month, the team fired pro scout Mickey White and reassigned vice president of player personnel Craig Weissmann, both of whom were close with Jennings.

Now, the Marlins want to replace Jennings as manager, and although he reportedly has a standing offer to return as GM, it’s unclear whether he’ll want to return, potentially with less power than he once had. The Phillies also reportedly could consider hiring Jennings, and the Mariners might be another possibility. It might be, then, that the Marlins could replace both their manager and their GM this winter (although they could simply promote assistant GM Mike Berger to fill the latter role).

2. Improve the farm system. The Marlins did take a recent step to improve their minor league system by hiring former Pirates special assistant Marc DelPiano to oversee it. Otherwise, it will admittedly take longer than an offseason to address their prospect pipeline.

Still, any upgrades they can make this winter, either by acquiring minor leaguers or by improving their development processes, would help. As Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald noted last week, it’s been an awful year for the Marlins’ minor league system — several of their top affiliates finished in last place, and their system appears to be sorely lacking in impact talent beyond 2014 second overall pick Tyler Kolek (who himself didn’t have a very good season). “[Y]ou go beyond [Kolek], and you get to guys who are not top 200- or 300-type guys,” Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper told Spencer.

Contending in 2016 will probably be a longshot for the Marlins, so one potential option is to be proactive about upgrading their base of young talent this winter. Last offseason, for example, the Braves added Arodys Vizcaino, Tyrell Jenkins, Max Fried, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, Manny Banuelos, Rio Ruiz and others to their system. The Marlins don’t have the trade chips the Braves did … unless, of course, Miami’s front office is willing to get crazy and trade Stanton, Jose Fernandez or Gordon. (Stanton has a no-trade clause.) If not, they could make smaller trades (dealing someone like Prado and replacing him with Derek Dietrich might make sense) and attempt to add talent in the Rule 5 Draft. As a baseline, they probably shouldn’t trade from the shallow pool of minor league talent they currently have.

3. Develop a long-term plan. The Marlins’ most recent attempts to contend through the acquisitions of veterans have failed — last offseason didn’t work, and the 2011-12 offseason (when they brought in Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell and manager Ozzie Guillen to drum up interest in their new ballpark) didn’t either. Now, they’ll need to decide whether the third time will be the charm, and if not, what path to pursue.

While actually contending is a long shot, some acquisitions of veterans might actually make sense, even if they only might lead to a .500-type season. The Marlins have two franchise talents, Stanton and Fernandez, under control for the long term, and they can reasonably expect better health from both next season. They can also hope for more from talented young outfielders Yelich and Marcell Ozuna (assuming Ozuna returns). Barring a trade, Gordon will be back after a strong season, along with some capable role players, including Prado, shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, catcher J.T. Realmuto, and relievers A.J. Ramos and Carter Capps. In fact, there are hints of competence or upside at every position on the diamond (although a bit of additional bench depth would help them).

What the Marlins need most in the short term is starting pitching. Their young starters behind Fernandez didn’t take significant steps forward this season, and the Marlins’ collection of starting pitching now consists of a number of hurlers who look like placeholders (such as Tom Koehler, Brad Hand, Justin Nicolino and Adam Conley) alongside wild cards Jarred Cosart, Jose Urena and the injured Henderson Alvarez. This offseason’s free agent market is rich in pitching, and acquiring a couple starters to bolster the rotation might give the Marlins a chance to be competitive next season.

They probably ought to avoid trades of young players for veteran pitchers, however, unless they come very cheaply. Last offseason’s trades of Nathan Eovaldi to New York (in the Prado deal) and two young players to Cincinnati (in the Latos deal) were arguably small mistakes that the Marlins shouldn’t repeat. Regardless of their offseason moves, it would be very surprising if they won, say, 90 games in 2016. So the long term needs to be their top priority. Their most obvious route to long-term success is to build around Stanton and Fernandez, but they could also potentially consider the less obvious route of trading them. Either way, they appear to have a long swim ahead, one that might be tough to navigate for notoriously impatient owner Jeffrey Loria.

Three Needs: San Diego Padres

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As we continue working our way through the major needs of non-contenders with the offseason in sight, we’ll turn our attention to the Padres. San Diego entered the year with big expectations after a volatile winter under new GM A.J. Preller. Things haven’t worked out as planned, but the Friars nevertheless stood pat at the trade deadline. San Diego is as unpredictable as any organization in baseball right now, but here are a few areas the team might look to address:

1. Get the talent pipeline flowing. Preller came to San Diego with a reputation as a hard-working, discerning evaluator of talent who could dig up young players at good values. President/CEO Mike Dee explained the premise before the season: “But [Preller] said you don’t have to choose between one or the other. You can have both. You can have a strong pursuit of amateur and international talent and still add impact players. … I’m excited to see the second half of what he’s known for [in the international market].” 

One year into Preller’s tenure, the club’s farm is lagging — even as the team struggles at the major league level. As things stand, the organization has just one top-100 prospect (Hunter Renfroe, #76 per MLB.com). The Padres didn’t have a first-round draft pick last year after sacrificing their first two choices in the James Shields signing and the Craig Kimbrel trade. And while the organization says it’s happy with its haul of July 2 prospects, it didn’t land Yoan Moncada, Yadier Alvarez, or any of the other most-hyped Latin American players on this year’s international market.

We’ve already seen Preller trade away a good portion of the upper-level talent he inherited. Now, he’ll need to show that he can successfully re-fill the system. The team appears to be headed for a top-ten draft pick, and can use qualifying offers to Justin Upton and (potentially) Ian Kennedy to add more selections and spending capacity. That’s a nice start, but more creative measures — such as trading a player like Kimbrel, searching the trade market for competitive balance picks and international signing pools, and/or looking for the next Touki Toussaint deal — may be needed.

2. Sort out the middle infield. Dating from the start of the 2011 season, the Padres rank dead last in major league baseball in middle infielder fWAR. The bulk of the positive wins above replacement from that stretch date to 2013, when Jedd Gyorko and Everth Cabrera both had solid campaigns. Other than that, San Diego has received basically replacement-level production from both the second base and shortstop positions for the last five years.

The organization is currently batting around some less-than-optimal possibilities as the offseason looms. Gyorko has looked re-born at the plate in recent months, and the team seems pleased with the initial returns on an experimental move to shortstop. But it would be brave to go into a full season on the assumption he’ll hold down that position, especially given the failed effort to use Wil Myers in center field this year. San Diego currently has the league’s worst defense, by measure of UZR/150 innings, and asking Gyorko (never a highly-regarded defender elsewhere in the infield) to step in at short seems a tall order.

That’s all the more true given that the organization isn’t exactly overflowing with talent elsewhere in the infield. Other players in the mix at second and third are Cory Spangenberg, Yangervis Solarte, and Will Middlebrooks. While some combination of that group should passably hold down those positions, it looks like a stretch for it to cover the four-through-six slots in a contending infield.

With this year’s Clint Barmes–Alexi Amarista pairing having fallen flat, and Trea Turner dealt away, an outside shortstop addition may well be necessary if expectations are to contend. San Diego can look to a trade market with several promising possibilities or pursue a group of free agents that includes some interesting-but-aging veterans who could be had on short-term deals.

3. Balance the lineup. Improving on the defensive side is one way that San Diego can add balance and situational flexibility to its roster, but even more pressing may be the need for left-right balance in the lineup. Aside from the switch-hitting Solarte, who has fairly even platoon splits over his two big league seasons, the team has a dearth of left-handed bats amongst its regulars.

There are some lefties in the mix, of course, but all appear to be part-time options at this stage. Spangenberg hits from the left side, as do Amarista and rookie Travis Jankowski — who could conceivably split time with Melvin Upton in center next year. Outfielder Alex Dickerson may get a long look to make the team as a fourth outfielder this spring, and Brett Wallace could be brought back after a surprising run (with a sample-size warning in full effect). There’s Yonder Alonso, but he’s yet to impress consistently and is out again with another injury. He may be displaced at first by Myers. Top youngsters Renfroe and Austin Hedges are righties, so it isn’t as if there is a big, left-handed bat waiting in the wings.

What can be done? As things stand, there isn’t a lot of room to spend: San Diego already has $75MM on the books, and that’s before acting on a $8MM option over Joaquin Benoit and paying arb raises to Myers, Alonso, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, and Derek Norris. While some budget bench signings are possible, the trade route looks more promising if the Padres look to add an everyday left-handed hitter or two.

Three Needs: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers are the next team up in MLBTR’s series of high-level looks at the needs of non-contenders heading into the offseason. (We’ve already covered the Reds, Phillies, D-Backs and Rockies.) A quick reminder that we’ll be looking more in-depth at each club in our yearly Offseason Outlook series, but for now, let’s dive into some of Milwaukee’s needs as the winter approaches…

1. Find a GM committed to/capable of developing pitching. A quick (and admittedly rudimentary) look at the Brewers’ pitching over the past 15 seasons shows that they’ve received just 12 single season performances valued at three or more wins above replacement (per Fangraphs) from a starting pitcher. Of those 12 seasons, four came from Ben Sheets — far and away the best pitcher the team has drafted and developed in recent history — and one came from Yovani Gallardo. The others came from players who were signed as free agents or who were acquired via trade. For those who don’t like FIP-based WAR, even RA9-WAR shows only 11 such seasons with just four coming from Brewer-developed pitchers (two from Sheets, two from Gallardo).

In his time as GM, Doug Melvin acquired the bulk of his effective pitching from outside the organization. Recent seasons have seen Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson develop into serviceable options, and Taylor Jungmann has had a nice debut to this point, but the majority of pitchers to rank among the Brewers’ Top 5-10 prospects in the past decade have failed to pan out. That includes names like Mark Rogers, Tyler Thornburg and Jed Bradley. Others, such as Manny Parra and Jeremy Jeffress, have emerged as quality big league relievers at least, while others yet, namely Jake Odorizzi, have gone on to flourish with other organizations via trade.

Milwaukee has developed its share of offensive stars, with Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Jonathan Lucroy, Corey Hart (pre-knee troubles), Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy all standing out as recent examples of quality hitters the team has produced out of the draft. A list of pitchers that have solidified themselves as Major Leaguers with the Brewers would, clearly, be far less impressive.

2. Trade the remaining veterans with appealing contracts. Lucroy, Adam Lind and, to a lesser extent, Francisco Rodriguez all have appeal to other clubs. Lind has his flaws — questionable defense at first and an inability to hit lefties — but is affordable and has continued to crush right-handed pitching. He’ll earn a reasonable enough $8MM salary in 2016. K-Rod has had a very strong season, and while he’s guaranteed a considerable $9.5MM through the end of 2016, $2MM of that comes in the form of a buyout on an affordable $6MM option for 2017. Another $2MM of it is deferred, interest-free, to 2018. The Brewers can include some cash in the deal to sweeten the return as well.

Lucroy’s the big draw here — a strong defender who has a history of well-above-average offense from behind the plate and is owed just $9.5MM through 2017. His numbers are down in 2015, to be sure, but he’s had some injuries, namely a broken toe and now a possible concussion. The latter of the two is far scarier, particularly given the position he plays, but if Lucroy is cleared and can finish the season symptom-free, he’ll be one of the most desirable trade chips in all of baseball — the type of player for whom the Brewers can ask a substantial return. Top 100 prospects, Major League ready starting pitching, young infield help — any of that should be on the table for Lucroy. Second-half splits are admittedly somewhat arbitrary in nature, but the .280/.339/.464 triple-slash posted by Lucroy since the All-Star break certainly can’t hurt his trade value.

3. Identify permanent corner infield solutions. My initial thought was to highlight the need to sort out the outfield, but the notion of playing Domingo Santana out of position in center field for a year while seeing what they have with him and Khris Davis (and allowing top prospect/recent MLBTR Podcast guest Brett Phillips to further develop) isn’t as concerning as the complete dearth of infield talent on this roster.

Scooter Gennett handles right-handed pitching just fine, but he’s a .120/.144/.148 hitter in his career off fellow lefties. It’s only 114 plate appearances, but the fact that the Brewers have only seen fit to grant him that much time is telling. His double-play partner, Jean Segura, was made out to be a trade chip earlier this season, but it’s hard to believe he has much real trade value. Segura’s a spotty defender at shortstop that hasn’t hit since the first half of 2013. It wouldn’t be a great outcome for him, but the notion of a Segura/Gennett platoon at second base makes some sense. Segura, after all, is a placeholder for Orlando Arcia, whose elite glove at shortstop and promising bat have him ranked among the best minor leaguers in all of baseball.

That leaves the corners as areas of need (assuming a Lind trade). Hunter Morris never developed into the slugging first baseman they’d hoped for, and Matt Dominguez didn’t hit enough at Triple-A to be considered an option, as he’s been claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays.

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