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Three Needs: Toronto Blue Jays

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This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Click to read entries on the Braves,  Tigers, Reds, Pirates, Giants and Mets.

After reaching the ALCS in the previous two seasons, the 2017 Blue Jays stumbled out of the gate to a brutal 2-11 start and simply never got on track.  The team did have some good stretches and was still hanging around the wild card race in late August, so it could be tempting to write the season off as a by-product of some brutal injury luck, as several Jays regulars spent significant time on the disabled list.  It could also be argued, however, that the injuries simply exposed some underlying issues with the roster that would’ve prevented Toronto from contending even at full strength.

A rebuild isn’t in the cards given the talent (and big contracts) still on hand, so the Jays are planning for a big rebound in 2018.  Here are a few of the areas that need to be addressed in order for the Jays to return to contention…

[Related: Blue Jays depth chart and payroll information at Roster Resource]

1. Make the lineup less one-dimensional.  The Jays ranked at or near the bottom of the league in just about every major offensive category except for home runs and walks, and this lack of versatility led to the third-worst offensive fWAR (9.0) of any club in baseball.  Justin Smoak’s breakout year was countered by Jose Bautista and Kendrys Morales having sub-replacement level seasons, plus the light-hitting duo of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney getting the bulk of playing time at the middle infield spots thanks to Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis missing much of the year.  Lengthy DL stints for Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin and Steve Pearce also didn’t help matters.

A general lack of speed and positional versatility is baked into the Toronto roster given the presence of so many veteran players.  If the Jays are looking to add contact hitting, defense and perhaps more stolen bases into the mix, two positions that stand out are right field (which we’ll address in the next point) and second base.  The Jays simply don’t know what they have in Travis due to his already-extensive injury history, so getting a more reliable middle infield option is necessary.  Shortstop is another question mark thanks to Tulowitzki’s own continued injury problems, though he’s probably untradeable because of his big contract.  An everyday middle infielder that could play second base but handle short in a pinch would be ideal for the Jays, as it would give them flexibility in the increasingly-likely event that Tulowitzki or Travis will again hit the DL.

The Jays could also consider trading a veteran simply in order to create room for more versatile players, even if it wouldn’t free up any payroll space.  The Jays would have to eat money to move Tulowitzki, Morales or maybe even Pearce, but they could cut down on that financial outlay by taking on another “bad” contract in return.  Dealing one of those big contracts to add a somewhat pricey corner outfielder, starting pitcher or reliever in need of a change of scenery would allow Toronto to address a need while technically not really creating another roster hole, given how little the in-house veterans contributed in 2017.

A bigger-picture move would be to deal Donaldson or Smoak, though such a trade doesn’t seem likely since the Jays will be counting on those two as cornerstones of next year’s lineup.  The Jays will certainly talk to Donaldson this winter about an extension as he enters his last year under contract, and even if talks don’t go anywhere, it seems much more plausible that Toronto shops Donaldson at next July’s deadline (if at all) rather than move him this winter.

2. Add a new right fielder.  Bautista’s tenure with the club is all but certain to end, leaving a big hole in right field.  Teoscar Hernandez, acquired at the deadline for Francisco Liriano, is the most obvious in-house candidate, though he may also not be ready for an everyday role on a contending team.  Ezequiel Carrera, Anthony Alford, Dwight Smith and perhaps Dalton Pompey are other internal options if the Jays wanted to cobble together a platoon, but right field stands out as a clear opportunity to add a reliable everyday player to the lineup.

While the Jays will have some money to spend, signing the likes of a J.D. Martinez or another top-tier free agent bat doesn’t fit with the team’s usual M.O.  A trade could also be somewhat difficult; barring the type of bad-contract swap scenario I mentioned earlier, the Jays don’t have much in the way of MLB-ready prospects to offer in deals.  This could be a situation where Toronto uses the money freed up by Bautista’s departure to acquire an outfielder from a team primarily looking to move salary rather than add prospects.

3. Add at least one, preferably two starting pitchers.  The Jays head into 2018 with a rotation headlined by Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ and (theoretically) Aaron Sanchez, provided that Sanchez can solve the blister and finger issues that limited him to just 36 innings.  Sanchez’s injuries have already been enough of a lingering concern that he can’t be entirely counted on until the spring, making it all the more important that the club reinforces its pitching staff.

One spot could be filled by a familiar face, as there is mutual interest in a reunion with impending free agent Marco Estrada.  That will be a boon if Estrada returns to his 2015-16 form, though even the inconsistent 2017 version of Estrada has still delivered 176 2/3 IP and 2.7 fWAR.

It seems like any pitching additions will have to come via signings or trades, as Toronto is lacking in MLB-ready starters at the Triple-A level.  Joe Biagini could be a candidate for a fifth starter’s role after a full Spring Training of preparing to be a full-time starting pitcher, though his up-and-down performance as a starter this year hints that his ultimate future could be in the pen.  The Blue Jays won’t be shopping at the high end of the free agent pitching market, but a mid-range signing akin to their deal with Happ two winters ago could fit.  The Jays have already been mentioned as one of the teams potentially targeting Alex Cobb this offseason.

Three Needs: Atlanta Braves

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This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Click to read versions on the Tigers, Reds, Pirates, Giants and Mets.

The Braves were among baseball’s absolute worst teams in each of the previous two seasons, finishing near the bottom of the majors in both wins and run differential. While they’re still below average in those categories (22nd in winning percentage, 19th in run differential), there has been progress this season. At 67-80, the Braves should surpass the 70-victory mark for the first time since 2014. That would obviously be a baby step, but moving forward with a healthy Freddie Freeman and the game’s No. 1-ranked farm system give the Braves legitimate reasons for hope heading into 2018. A productive offseason from general manager John Coppolella probably wouldn’t transform Atlanta into a playoff contender overnight, though pushing toward the .500 mark next year wouldn’t be an unreasonable goal. Here’s how Coppolella could make that happen…

1.) Acquire a front-line starter:

This is certainly a lot easier said than done, but the Braves’ actions indicate that they’re motivated to add a top-caliber starter. They’ve attempted to trade for Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana and Michael Fulmer, to name some high-profile hurlers, dating back to last season. Sale, Gray and Quintana have since switched teams, taking them off the table for Atlanta, but Coppolella could still try for Archer and Fulmer, among others.

Fulmer, the Braves’ primary target at this year’s non-waiver trade deadline, seems more likely than Archer to end up on the move in the offseason. The Tigers are at the very beginning of what should be a long rebuild, after all, so it would behoove them to listen to offers Fulmer. Considering how strong their pipeline is, the Braves may be in better position than anyone else to land Fulmer, who will enter his age-25 season and final pre-arbitration campaign in 2018.

There are a couple potential free agents to keep an eye on, too, with two-way superstar Shohei Otani reportedly set to emigrate from Japan and fellow countryman Masahiro Tanaka a possibility to opt out of his contract with the Yankees. As a 23-year-old ace who won’t significantly cash in because of the new collective bargaining agreement, most teams will kick the tires on the flamethrowing Otani during the offseason. The Braves could be among those clubs, though they’re in an especially disadvantageous position from an international spending standpoint. Where Otani will sign is extremely difficult to forecast, especially when factoring in his offensive prowess. For instance, will he strongly consider heading to the National League, where his only at-bats are likely to come on days he pitches and in pinch-hitting situations? That’s not a concern with Tanaka – who, unlike ace-caliber free agents-to-be in Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, is on the right side of 30. Set to turn 29 in November, Tanaka won’t come cheap, as vacating his pact with the Yankees would mean leaving $67MM on the table.

Whether it’s one of the above starters or another high-end type, the front of the rotation is certainly an area worth addressing for the Braves. The club’s starters rank 22nd in the majors in fWAR (6.7) – a good portion of that (1.5) came from now-Yankee Jaime Garcia, whose final Braves start was back on July 21 – and 23rd in ERA (4.89).

2.) Upgrade at third base:

The performance of Johan Camargo has prevented third base from being a complete disaster this year for Atlanta, but continuing to count on him would be a gamble. While the 23-year-old rookie has given the Braves respectable production (.303/.336/.474 in 225 plate appearances), it’s smoke and mirrors to a large degree. Camargo’s .373 batting average on balls in play isn’t going to last, and his success has come in spite of a K/BB ratio (.23) that’s well below the league average (.40). Further, as Statcast shows (via Baseball Savant), Camargo’s expected weighted on-base average (.299) pales in comparison to his actual wOBA (.347).

Fortunately for the Braves, there will be more proven options available in free agency. The length of a potential commitment they make at the hot corner could depend in part on how far away the Braves think prospects Kevin Maitan and Austin Riley are. For example, if they’re counting on either to come up in the next couple years, that could rule out Royals slugger Mike Moustakas, who will easily score the largest contract among impending free agent third basemen. Less expensive choices will include Todd Frazier, Eduardo Nunez and, if he’s willing to move from shortstop to third, Zack Cozart. Frazier or Cozart would provide some punch to a Braves lineup that ranks 27th in ISO (.152), while Nunez would give a team in need of a baserunning boost a notable jolt in that area. Nunez also happens to be an above-average hitter, and the Braves don’t have enough of those.

The trade route could also be a viable avenue, with Chase Headley (Yankees), Jed Lowrie (Athletics) and Asdrubal Cabrera (Mets) standing out as Band-Aid types who might end up on the block in the offseason.

3.) Improve the corner outfield:

Center fielder Ender Inciarte has been terrific during his two years as a Brave, but they haven’t given him adept complements in either season. That’s going to change sometime soon when all-world prospect Ronald Acuna comes to the majors, but the Braves could still use at least one better corner outfielder in the meantime.

While Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis would’ve made for an appealing duo several years ago, their days as decent starters appear long gone. Those two have combined for just 0.4 fWAR this year, making them the main culprits behind the Atlanta outfield’s 29th-place ranking in that category (2.1). The Braves’ nine non-Inciarte outfielders have combined for minus-0.6 fWAR. Even including Inciarte’s production, 26 individual major league outfielders have matched or bettered the output of the Braves’ group of 10.

All of the above is to say that the Braves need to stop living in the past with at least one of the Kemp-Markakis tandem. The problem is that they may be stuck with the pair. Kemp, who will turn 33 next Saturday, is owed $21.5MM per year through 2019. The Braves would likely have to swallow nearly that entire sum to have any hope of moving him. It would be easier (but still difficult) to deal the soon-to-be 34-year-old Markakis, who’s the better and cheaper of the two (he’s due $10.5MM in 2018, the final season of his contract). Continuing with Markakis as a regular until Acuna debuts at some point in 2018 wouldn’t be catastrophic – at least he still gets on base – but adding another corner man should still be a priority.

Among impending free agents, Jarrod Dyson stands out as a clear upgrade who wouldn’t require the Braves to break the bank. Dyson will turn 34 next summer and doesn’t offer much as a hitter, which are concerns, but the current Mariners center fielder is outstanding on the bases and with the glove. It just so happens that the Braves need help in those areas.

Alternatively, Andrew McCutchen (Pirates), Avisail Garcia (White Sox), Brett Gardner (Yankees) and Stephen Piscotty (Cardinals), to name a few, may be worth looking into as possible trade candidates.

[RELATED: Braves News & Rumors On Facebook]

Three Needs: New York Mets

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This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Read versions on the Tigers, Reds, Pirates and Giants.

Fresh off back-to-back playoff seasons, the Mets entered 2017 with championship aspirations but have instead endured a Murphy’s Law campaign. Injuries and subpar performances have been the norm this year for the Mets, who have limped to a 63-84 record and have allowed 84 more runs than they’ve scored (783 to 679). With the exception of right-hander Jacob deGrom, all of New York’s stars have missed significant time with injuries. Even the Mets’ brightest spot of 2017, breakout outfielder Michael Conforto, couldn’t get through the year unscathed. Conforto suffered a torn left shoulder capsule in August, though the Mets don’t expect it to negatively affect him next season. As the Mets hope Conforto fully recovers from surgery over the next several months, their general manager (be it Sandy Alderson or someone else) will use the offseason to upgrade their roster in the hopes of returning to contention in 2018. Here’s a look at a few things New York could do during the winter…

1.) Add reliable starting pitching:

Ace Noah Syndergaard hasn’t pitched since suffering a torn lat muscle in his right arm on April 30, thus depriving the Mets of one of the game’s elite starters for nearly the entire season. He and deGrom will front the Mets’ rotation next year, though, giving the team an enviable one-two punch and taking pressure off the remainder of the rotation. New York is in dire need of help behind that duo, however, as counting on any other in-house options entering 2018 would be a substantial risk.

Former ace and 2016 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery recipient Matt Harvey’s career has gone off the rails since last season, meaning the Mets will have to decide whether to bring the 28-year-old back in 2018 for his final arbitration-eligible campaign. Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz each endured rough seasons that ended early on account of injuries, which is all the more trouble considering they came into the year with durability questions. And both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo have taken sizable steps backward since serving as key starters for the Mets in 2016. Rafael Montero, the only other Met to log double-digit starts this season, has been passable (4.83 ERA, 4.09 FIP in 85 2/3 innings), but it’s unclear whether he has done enough to warrant a spot for next year. The soon-to-be 27-year-old won’t have any minor league options remaining when 2018 rolls around.

From 2014-16, the Mets had Bartolo Colon in the fold as someone to provide 30-plus starts of roughly 4.00 ERA ball to complement their top-of-the-rotation arms. They’ve clearly missed that type of starter this season, though the year Colon has had with the Braves and Twins suggests he wouldn’t have been part of the solution anymore for New York. Any of Jhoulys Chacin, Marco Estrada, Doug Fister (whom the Mets courted as a free agent earlier this year) or John Lackey could make sense if the Mets aren’t in big-spending mode on the open market. But if New York is willing to splurge on an expensive starter, Lance Lynn would be a strong fit. Lynn missed 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he has otherwise delivered nothing but quality seasons of 175 or more innings since 2012.

2.) Sort out the infield:

It’s safe to say Amed Rosario, one of the game’s premier prospects, will continue to man shortstop in 2018. Uncertainty abounds everywhere else in the Mets’ infield, including at third base, where injuries have ruined team captain and seven-time All-Star David Wright’s career. Neck, back and shoulder problems have limited the longtime superstar to 75 games since the start of the 2015 season, and he hasn’t played in a major league contest since May 1, 2016. The Mets can’t expect anything out of the 34-year-old going forward, then, especially considering he underwent right rotator cuff surgery earlier this month. Wright is due an astronomical $20MM salary in 2018, but the Mets will save 75 percent of that figure via insurance for as long as he’s on the disabled list.

Wright replacements Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera have been reasonably effective in his stead this year, but it’s no sure thing any will be the answer at third next season. Reyes and Cabrera aren’t even locks to be on the team in 2018, in fact, as the former is a free agent-to-be and the latter has a team option. Barring trades, Flores and Rivera will be back (notably, the latter is recovering from Tommy John surgery), but they’ve never been single-position players. Those two could continue to rotate among third, second and first next year, which, combined with a Cabrera return, would mitigate the need for a major infield acquisition in the offseason. Otherwise, the Mets could conceivably add an established player at any of those spots, depending in part on whether they think rookie first baseman Dominic Smith is already a capable starter. In the aggregate, the 22-year-old hasn’t been all that productive since the Mets promoted him in the first half of August, and he wasn’t a world-class minor league producer. While Smith’s September numbers are gaudy (.300/.375/.620 in 56 plate appearances), an unsustainable batting average on balls in play (.379) and below-average strikeout and walk numbers paint a less rosy picture.

If they’re not content with Smith and/or their other infield options, there should be some reasonably priced potential targets available for the Mets in the offseason. First base types in Yonder Alonso, old friends Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce, and Logan Morrison will be on the market as cheaper alternatives to Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana. Eduardo Nunez and Todd Frazier lead the way at third behind Mike Moustakas, who may prove to be too expensive for the Mets’ taste. Reds shortstop Zack Cozart could also entice third base-needy teams in free agency, though his lack of durability may scare away a Mets team that has dealt with a deluge of injuries lately. Considering his baserunning prowess, Nunez would be a good fit for New York, which ranks 25th in the majors in FanGraphs’ BsR metric and 29th in steals. Nunez can also play second, where the upcoming free agent class lacks players who are obvious upgrades over what the Mets already have. The same is likely true of the trade market, as the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Dodgers’ Logan Forsythe have underwhelmed this year. The Athletics’ Jed Lowrie has fared well, on the other hand, but injuries have been problematic for him during his career.

3.) Get relief help:

Mets relievers finished 2016 second in the majors in fWAR and sixth in ERA. One year later, they’re 19th and 29th in those categories. There’s currently little in the way of confidence-inspiring in-house options beyond AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins and Jeurys Familia, the latter of whom has been one of many high-profile Mets to suffer through an unexpectedly terrible season, perhaps leaving room for multiple additions. Indeed, the Mets are zeroing in on the bullpen as an area they’ll need to address in the offseason. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Wednesday, former Met Addison Reed, Brandon Kintzler, Juan Nicasio, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek could land on the Mets’ radar over the winter. Those are just a handful of many soon-to-be available veteran relievers who would figure to better the team’s late-game situation.

Three Needs: Detroit Tigers

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Next up in our Three Needs series: the Detroit Tigers.

1. Trade Ian Kinsler. 

This is about as obvious as these sorts of decisions get. Kinsler is already 35. He’s going to cost either $11MM or $12MM, depending upon whether he wins the A.L. Gold Glove for second base. (More on that here.) And it’s perfectly plausible that he could, since he continues to draw top-notch reviews for his glovework. Though Kinsler has dipped at the plate this year — he’s at career lows in batting average (.234) and slugging (.397) and is fighting to stay ahead of his prior low in OBP (currently .309) — he has a lengthy record of above-average hitting. And he also carries only a .243 batting average on balls in play this year despite making more hard contact (37.2%) than he ever has before, indicating some positive regression could be on the way. Even in a down year, Kinsler will put up at around 2 WAR; last year, he topped five (and, by measure of the DRS-based rWAR measure, did the same for the three prior seasons as well).

Bottom line: teams are going to see appeal in adding such a high-quality veteran at a palatable price on a one-year deal. Detroit has no real business employing Kinsler at this point. While his partial no-trade clause could factor in, Kinsler will surely see the merit in finding a new home with a contender. Demand at second base may not be immense, but there should be enough to support a decent return. The Tigers should be, and likely are, laying groundwork now to begin an auction process for the veteran.

2. Listen on Michael Fulmer, but hold out for a huge return.

You’ve heard the phrase “controllable, top-of-the-rotation starter” — or some variation of it — discussed quite a bit in recent months and years. Everybody wants ’em, but there aren’t enough to go around. And as that class of pitcher goes, Fulmer is near the top.

Fulmer is still just 24 and won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2016. He won’t reach arbitration until 2019 (as a Super Two) and won’t hit free agency until 2023. His overall ERA has sagged this year on the whole, but he carried an exact match to last year’s effort (3.06) following his start on July 15th. Fulmer faded as a nerve issue became problematic. While that did ultimately require surgery, it’s not expected to limit him next year — and, as an added bonus, his elbow ligaments just received a visual inspection and clean bill of health from the world’s most famous baseball surgeon (Dr. James Andrews). Though he doesn’t rack up all that many strikeouts, most agree it’s not a concern, as Fulmer dominates with a four-pitch power arsenal that may allow him to continue to suppress batting averages on balls in play.

We’ve already heard of some teams approaching the Tigers with interest, and that’ll surely continue. The market has produced huge returns for pitchers such as Chris Sale and Jose Quintana; while Fulmer doesn’t have the former’s excellence or the latter’s track record, he’s much younger and cheaper. Clearly, even with the surgery, he’s one of the game’s best trade chips.

Under the circumstances, the Tigers ought to listen in earnest to offers on Fulmer. But the club would be foolish to pre-commit to dealing him for less than a true haul of young talent. There’s always risk in hanging onto a pitcher that has immediate and long-term value. But that’s just what the team should be willing to do if suitors don’t come calling with packages featuring multiple players that project to be quality big leaguers.

3. Don’t be afraid to lose.

Of course, Detroit shouldn’t hold onto Fulmer or others out of any inclination to keep winning games. The pain will come, and already has; the danger now is in not embracing it fully. Nabbing a few more W’s in 2018 is likely only to cost draft position and extend the timeline of a successful rebuild. There’s nothing the Tigers can do but play Miguel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmermann, and Victor Martinez (if he’s able to return). Other than those high-priced veterans, who’ll need to reestablish some value to be traded, the efforts should be directed toward developing players, finding hidden gems, and generating trade chips.

That’s not to say that the Tigers can’t give some money to veterans. But they ought to be the sort whose control rights come with some real upside — younger free agents who haven’t yet harnessed their talents or still-useful veterans that slipped through the cracks. While the team had its reasons this year for giving significant time this year to over-30 role players such as Andrew Romine (114 games) and Alex Presley (207 plate appearances despite lengthy DL stints), doing so next year may not be wise.

Instead, the Tigers ought to be willing to part with useful relievers such as Shane Greene and Alex Wilson if there’s something worthwhile to be brought back. They should keep running out Mikie Mahtook unless and until he proves he can’t sustain solid production. And they ought to find out what they have not only in Dixon Machado, but also in reserve catcher John Hicks (who has hit quite well) and newly acquired prospect Jeimer Candelario.

If some buy-low opportunities arise in free agency, that’s always worth considering, but the Tigers already maintain a hefty payroll. And the bet here is that a wide variety of other teams will provide competition (and thus raise salaries) for the sort of short-term assets that might be of interest. Instead, perhaps, working the waiver wire and minor-league free agency will be more fruitful avenues for Detroit. The club should be open to taking chances there and perhaps also pursuing a few Rule 5 players.

It seems likely there will be fewer teams than usual in 2018 that truly don’t care about winning. The Tigers may join the White Sox as the only teams that are really just focused on aggregating young talent (though that could change in the coming weeks and there are a few other organizations that won’t be looking to spend much to improve in the near-term). That’s actually a good thing for Detroit, because the club has a clean path to a top draft pick and can operate without worry of results while other, slightly more advanced rebuilders begin to feel demand for results. The front office already made the hardest call in trading Justin Verlander. There’s no reason to look back now.

Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds

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Next up in our Three Needs series: the Cincinnati Reds.

[Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart]

1. Don’t (completely) abandon the pitching strategy. 

Wait, what?! The Reds’ pitching staff has been the worst in all of baseball since the start of 2016, handily pacing the league in the volume of walks, long balls, and earned runs allowed. Actually, that doesn’t quite capture it: the Reds’ pitching staff has essentially defined replacement level since the start of 2016, making it a true outlier. By measure of fWAR, at least, the 2016-17 Reds hurlers have turned in a two-year stretch of futility that is orders of magnitude worse than any other organization of the past two decades, falling well shy of the dreadful 2004-05 Royals and 2002-03 Devil Rays units.

It goes without saying that there’s work to be done if the Reds hope to win at any point in the near future. But Cinci was largely justified in its recent approaching, having accumulated a significant number of interesting-enough pitching prospects at the upper levels of the farm. While few were seen as sure things, the club correctly assessed its chances of contention (not good) and declined to dole out significant contracts to back-of-the-rotation veterans. (Compare to the Braves and Phillies, who spent quite a lot of money on veteran pitching and ended no closer to contention than did the Reds.)

Clearly, the pitching hasn’t developed as hoped; there’s quite a lot of room for self-assessment and improvement. But injuries to Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, Homer Bailey, and even Scott Feldman — the rare player the Reds did sign into the rotation — played a major role in the dreadful performance, too. The first three of those hurlers will have an offseason to rest up. Luis Castillo — acquired for Dan Straily, who was found last year as part of the budget-friendly strategy — looks like an arm to build around. And the Reds have seen enough moments of intrigue from a few younger arms to hope that one or more can round out the starting unit. Others will become affordable relievers, perhaps with some capacity to make longer relief appearances (an approach the organization has stressed, with some success thus far).

At this point, there’s little reason for the Reds to suddenly begin investing in expensive, aging starters. It would be nice to see some stability added into the mix over the winter — the Feldman signing could provide a guide, or the team could perhaps spend a bit more and take a shot on a higher-upside arm — and the Reds have enough talent on the position-player side to be a plausible contender as soon as next year. But continued restraint would be preferable to a move that ties the organization’s hands in future campaigns.

2. Shop Raisel Iglesias.

What do you do with the best pitcher on a historically awful staff? Trade him, of course! Sounds odd at first glance, I’ll admit, but the Reds could be in a position to cash in on the talented right-hander.

Iglesias could be the centerpiece of a big trade after turning in 71 1/3 innings of 1.89 ERA pitching (so far) with 11.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. The 27-year-old is guaranteed just $14.5MM over the next three seasons, though he can choose instead to opt into arbitration and would qualify next year as a Super Two. Iglesias can also be tendered arbitration in 2021, meaning the Reds control him for four more campaigns at what ought to be quite an appealing rate (though his outstanding pitching and saves tallies will boost his earning power in arbitration).

For organizations that will be looking into veteran free-agent closers, or that otherwise have interest in a multi-inning relief ace (and who doesn’t?), there ought to be a real willingness to part with significant young talent. Teams will no doubt notice that Iglesias has thrown harder and generated more whiffs than ever this year, elevating his trade stock to what may well be an all-time high. Given the risks inherent to any pitcher, let alone a flame-throwing reliever, it’s quite possibly an opportune time for the Reds to cash him in.

To be sure, it would be foolish to give up such a talented, controllable asset for less than a compelling return. But the guess here is that the club should have a good chance of prying loose some quality, near-MLB assets — all the better if that includes a young starter — that could be of greater long-term impact and help set the stage for a sustainable run of contention. Earnestly shopping Iglesias will at least give the organization a strong sense of his market value, and might just drum up a great trade opportunity.

3. Bid a fond farewell to Zack Cozart.

It’s unfortunate that the Reds were never able to cash in on the strong play of their veteran shortstop, who has turned from a light-hitting defensive whiz to an all-around star in 2017. Injuries and thin market demand make the failure to strike a match largely understandable from the front office’s perspective.

Now, though, the club is left with a decision to make — one that’ll be due just five days after the end of the World Series. Should the club choose, it can dangle a qualifying offer to the free-agent-to-be. If he declines, and signs for more than $50MM elsewhere, the Reds could score an extra draft pick just after the end of the first round. Of course, if Cozart falls shy of that amount in free agency, the team would receive only a choice after the second round.

When polled recently, MLBTR readers were split as to how the team should proceed, but most felt a QO was in order. Count me among the minority on that decision. Cozart is already 32 and has battled quite a few injuries in recent years. We have already seen the dearth of shortstop demand leaguewide; while he’ll no doubt land a solid, multi-year deal, Cozart likely won’t earn enough (with draft pick compensation required of a signing team) to earn the Reds the highest-possible pick. And he will need to strongly consider taking the ~$18.1MM payday for one year of work.

As good as Cozart has been, and as hard as it may be to see him walk away with nothing coming in return, the Reds simply can’t afford to take the chance that he takes the offer. The team already has over $60MM on the books and will owe some reasonably significant arbitration salaries. Rather than potentially adding an expensive veteran to the left side of the infield, Cincinnati should be anticipating how to clear the way for top prospect Nick Senzel, who destroyed Double-A pitching this year but is blocked at third by Eugenio Suarez — who has spent plenty of time as a professional at short.

Three Needs: Pittsburgh Pirates

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With less than a month remaining in the regular season, many teams still have plenty of fall drama ahead. Many clubs, though, are already looking to 2018. With that in mind, here’s the latest entry in our Three Needs series. You can track other entries in the series here.

For a team currently in the midst of a 67-76 season in which nearly everything went wrong, the Pirates have surprisingly few pronounced holes. That isn’t to say that it will be impossible for them to find ways to improve, only that they have reasonable possibilities in place for 2018 at most key roster spots. A player like Jordy Mercer is representative of the Pirates’ situation right now — he’s in the midst of a decent .254/.328/.404 season and is clearly a capable starting shortstop, but he’s also only notched two wins above replacement once in his career. A team with the resources and/or inclination to aggressively pursue upgrades over the reasonable, established assets they already have might look to add a starting shortstop, but it doesn’t seem especially likely the Pirates will. The Bucs also already did address what might otherwise have been a key offseason priority with their in-season trade to reacquire Sean Rodriguez, which bolstered the infield depth they lost due to Jung Ho Kang’s visa issues.

With that in mind, here are some areas the Bucs might address over the winter. A variety of somewhat dramatic approaches would seem defensible for the Pirates over the next few months, and with a number of key veterans potentially nearing the ends of their careers in Pittsburgh, the Bucs will have to at least consider some of them. If they do take dramatic action, though, they appear likely to do so by trading high-value veterans rather than adding them, although they could also pursue somewhat of a mixed strategy, dealing away some veteran salaries in order to bolster a decent base of young talent with veteran free agents.

[Related: Pittsburgh Pirates Depth Chart and Payroll Outlook]

1. Figure out what to do with Andrew McCutchen. In what’s become a semiannual tradition for the Pirates, they’ll attempt this offseason to chart a course for Andrew McCutchen, on whom they have a $14.5MM option or a $1M buyout in his last winter before free agency. McCutchen has posted a .583 OPS in August and .536 in September, but two very hot months this June and July should ease fears of a steep decline following a poor 2016 season. This time, of course, the Pirates can only offer suitors one season of McCutchen, but from the Bucs’ perspective, at least they can offer a McCutchen whose .273/.363/.467 line and improved defensive work look like significant upgrades on the McCutchen they had on offer last winter. The Pirates nearly traded Cutch to the Nationals then, and it seems very likely they’ll strongly consider trading McCutchen for young talent this winter, too.

2. If McCutchen goes, figure out what happens next. The Pirates are already pretty far removed from the Bucs teams that made three straight playoff appearances from 2013 through 2015, but dealing a franchise player like McCutchen would sever ties with the past even more decisively. Actually, whether the Bucs deal McCutchen or not, they need to develop a plan (or, more likely, continue implementing a plan that understandably hasn’t completely been publicly articulated) that’s designed to get them back to the playoffs at some point in the future. Neither of their last two teams have been good enough, and it’s not yet clear that the next wave of young assets (including Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Austin Meadows, Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, Tyler Glasnow and Felipe Rivero) form a good enough core by themselves to return the team to glory, even though all of them are clearly useful or at least have the potential to be. With all that in mind, the possibility of a McCutchen trade raises obvious questions about other veterans the Pirates might trade, including Gerrit Cole and Josh Harrison. Other names, like those of David Freese and Francisco Cervelli, could be bandied about as well.

The Pirates can control Cole for two more years, and with his pedigree, stuff, and performance, he’d undoubtedly yield plenty of talent coming back. The Bucs might not be able to top the fine returns the Athletics and White Sox received in dealing controllable veteran starters Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana, respectively, but they’d be able to point to those trades as potential starting points.

Harrison’s season is now over due to a broken finger, but he could be on the market this winter as well. After a solid .272/.339/.432 2017 campaign, he’s pretty clearly an asset, particularly given the structure of what remains on his contract — he’ll make a modest $10MM in 2018, and the team that controls him will also have relatively cheap options for both 2019 and 2020. That makes Harrison a very low risk for any team that might acquire him. The fact that he’s capable at both second and third could also create a variety of potential fits.

Any big trades the Pirates do make will create other potential decisions that could shape their winter. After Meadows’ injury-plagued season, the Bucs probably won’t be comfortable with having him replace McCutchen right away, which might mean they’ll look for outfield depth if they trade McCutchen. The same could be true of the infield should Harrison be traded. The Pirates would also have to determine how much space, if any, they want to carve out for interesting but lesser-known young players like outfielder Jordan Luplow and infielder Max Moroff. (From there, the Pirates can sort out the composition of their bench, perhaps adding a left-handed bat to replace free agent John Jaso.) If the Bucs were to trade Cole, they’d have a variety of young options to take his place, but it also wouldn’t be a shock if they looked for a veteran starter to provide stability.

3. Look for bullpen help. The Bucs’ recent trade of Tony Watson and their bizarre loss of Juan Nicasio on waivers have left their relief corps a bit thin. (Of course, both players would have been eligible for free agency after the season anyway.) The team recently made one significant move to improve the 2018 bullpen by claiming George Kontos from the Giants, but they’ll likely make one or two more this winter to add to a group currently headed by Rivero and Daniel Hudson. Like many teams, the Bucs have young or young-ish arms that could play bigger roles in next season’s ’pen, like Edgar Santana and Dovydas Neverauskas. The Bucs’ bullpen does, however, currently appear short on both veteran stability and overall talent. A buy-low move or two like the one that landed Hudson last winter wouldn’t be a surprise.

Three Needs: San Francisco Giants

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With just over three weeks remaining in the season, much of the focus in baseball is on the American League Wild Card race, historic winning streaks from the D-backs and Indians, and Giancarlo Stanton’s pursuit of 60 home runs. Fans and executives for a number of teams, though, are already beginning to look toward the future as they seek ways to remedy disappointing 2017 seasons that won’t result in a playoff berth.

With that in mind, MLBTR is re-launching its yearly Three Needs series, in which we’ll take a high-level look at a trio of pressing areas that need to be addressed on non-contenders with the offseason looming. We’ll take considerably deeper dives into each team’s flaws and possible avenues to improvement in our annual Offseason Outlook series, beginning next month, but this series will get the ball rolling for offseason content here at MLBTR.

In arbitrary fashion, the Giants are first up in 2017. With a 55-87 record, they need to go 8-12 down the stretch to avoid their first 100-loss season since 1985 and just the second season of triple-digit losses in the storied history of their franchise.

[Related: San Francisco Giants Depth Chart and Payroll Outlook]

1. Outfield improvements, both on defense and offense. Much has been made of the Giants’ lack of power, particularly in the outfield. They’ve already been linked to Giancarlo Stanton on multiple occasions, but the Giants need more than a power upgrade in the outfield. (Moreover, gutting an already thin farm and taking on a significant portion of Stanton’s contract doesn’t seem especially prudent anyhow.)

San Francisco ranks dead last in the Majors in outfield Defensive Runs Saved, and they’re a bottom-three team in Ultimate Zone Rating as well. Denard Span shouldn’t be playing center field anymore, but he’s been at least a league-average hitter. If the Giants can find a way to trade him and/or Hunter Pence, it could go a long ways toward improving the 2018 roster by creating space for younger options and freeing up resources for free agency and trades.

That’s a tall order, though, and the Giants could be better off simply sliding Span into left field and pursuing a center fielder that can excel defensively while providing some offense. Lorenzo Cain will be a free agent that, at 32 years of age, won’t break the bank in terms of contract length. Adding another aging outfielder to the mix might not pay off in the long run, but the Giants are aiming to compete next season. One alternative would be paying down some of Span’s contract to flip him to a team with a left field need, then giving Austin Slater an earnest look in left field and perhaps adding a more cost-effective center field option. Jarrod Dyson would bring elite glovework into the fold, though he’d only exacerbate the team’s lack of power and would need to be paired with a right-handed-hitting platoon partner.

2. A dependable mid-rotation starter. Giants fans may perceive the bullpen to the bigger need — and it’s a need, to be sure — but the rotation as currently constituted has far too many question marks and not much in terms of readily apparent reinforcement options. Assuming Matt Moore’s improvements in the second half are enough for his option to be exercised, the Giants will deploy a rotation consisting of Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto (whose injury all but rules out an opt-out), Jeff Samardzija and Moore. Candidates for the remaining slot include Ty Blach, who has the worst strikeout and swinging-strike rates in MLB, and 27-year-old Chris Stratton, who struggled in Triple-A this year and has walked 23 batters in 45 1/3 MLB frames. Prospect Tyler Beede could eventually surface as an option, but he didn’t perform especially well in Triple-A and missed the final chunk of the season with a back injury. More time in Triple-A could benefit him while buying the Giants some extra club control.

The free-agent market will be fronted by Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta and possibly Masahiro Tanaka. The Giants may not be keen on spending at those levels with a number of other notable players on the wrong side of 30 still under contract, but the middle tier of arms has some solid names as well. Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Marco Estrada and Tyler Chatwood (who has been successful outside of Coors Field in his career) will all be on the open market, among others. As always, the trade market will feature myriad names that could step into the middle of the mix in San Francisco.

3. Infield depth, with a focus on third base. The Giants entered the year with Eduardo Nunez at third base, while Conor Gillaspie and Aaron Hill served as utility options. Korean star Jae-gyun Hwang headed to Triple-A with the hope that he could emerge as an option down the line. None of those players are with the organization anymore, leaving the re-signed Pablo Sandoval (who is in an 0-for-38 slump) and prospects Ryder Jones and Christian Arroyo as options at the hot corner. Neither Arroyo nor Jones has hit in the Majors yet. While both could emerge as long-term pieces eventually — Arroyo, in particular, has long been regarded as a quality prospect — neither has yet shown himself ready to handle regular duties for a (would-be) contender.

The Giants’ bench, too, is lacking in the way of infield depth. Kelby Tomlinson’s strikeout rate is a career-high 21.4 percent, and he hasn’t homered since 2015. Adding a player in the Jed Lowrie mold makes a good bit of sense for San Francisco. If Arroyo steps up and claims the third base role, a player of Lowrie’s skill set could easily slide into a utility role, potentially allowing him to spell Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford on occasion. (Panik has missed significant time with injuries in recent years, it’s also worth noting.) One option could be to re-sign Nunez, who enjoyed his time with the Giants and has said he’d be open to a return in free agency.

Three Needs: Oakland Athletics

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We’ll continue here with our “Three Needs” series, in which we break down a few high-level needs of teams that fell out of contention early. (Soon, we’ll take full looks at every team’s offseason outlook.)

For the Athletics, a last-place finish in the AL West for the second straight year probably won’t spur a full-blown rebuild — it’s just not how the team has operated — but will likely lead to a fair bit of roster turnover this winter.

1. Improve the speed and defense.

If Oakland’s combined position-player fWAR from 2016 was doubled, it would still be nearly a win shy of the next-to-worst team in baseball. Though the team’s hitting was below-average (91 wRC+), it was the bottom-of-the-barrel baserunning and defense that did most of the damage.

The A’s had company in their troubles on the bases, with the Cardinals, Angels, and Tigers also in the conversation for worst in the game. But on defense, the A’s were far and away the least gloveable team in the league, by measure of both UZR and DRS. And that’s before accounting fully for the work behind the dish, where primary catcher Steven Vogt is one of the lowest-rated receivers in baseball (see here and here).

There may not be a lot of opportunity to change things in the infield beyond hoping for internal improvement. Moving Danny Valencia off of third base helps, but Ryon Healy isn’t an inspiring defensive choice either. Marcus Semien had a whole lot less errors, at least, so perhaps he can drive some further improvement next year at short. If he can return to health, Jed Lowrie will be looking to improve on his metrics in limited action this season at second, but age and injury pose questions. At first, Yonder Alonso has typically graded well, but had his worst season by the metrics in 2016. (Of course, his bat was a bigger problem.)

While consideration should be given to tweaking that alignment, the outfield is the key area that Oakland can target to add some speed and glovework. Read on for more on that area of need:

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Three Needs: Colorado Rockies

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Before breaking down every team’s assets and needs in full detail, we’re looking at big-picture areas of concern for those clubs that weren’t really in contention down the stretch.

Up now is a Rockies team that dabbled with a .500 record but ended up 11 games under (entering today) and buried in the NL West. The best way to describe the 2016 results, in most regards, is “middling.” Colorado rated as below-average, but not terrible, in basically every facet of the game. (And yes, that includes hitting.)

Here are three significant areas of focus for the Rox this winter:

1. Trade Carlos Gonzalez.

Well, now my feelings are known on that subject. While he wasn’t as good as he has been in the past, Gonzalez certainly wasn’t a problem for the team. He was healthy, hitting .298/.351/.511 (good for a 109 wRC+ and 112 OPS+) with 25 home runs over 618 plate appearances and accumulating 2.1 fWAR and 2.5 rWAR on the year.

Accordingly, he has some trade value — albeit nothing close to what some seem to think, in my estimation. Gonzalez, who’ll soon turn 31, is owed $20MM next year — a fair rate, particularly given that it involves a limited commitment in length. That reduces concern over his checkered injury history, with the hefty single-year salary still leaving some room for upside given Gonzalez’s demonstrated ceiling.

The thing is, the Rockies can’t afford to keep that much cash tied up in a left-handed hitting outfielder — not with Charlie Blackmon, Gerardo Parra, and the promising David Dahl on hand, at least. Colorado ran up a franchise-high $112MM Opening Day payroll this year, but it wasn’t enough to stem the tide of losing seasons. The club already has $66MM committed for 2017, with arb raises coming for Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Tyler Chatwood, and — if they are tendered — Jake McGee and Jordan Lyles.

Certainly, you could argue for trading another of the southpaw-swinging outfielders instead. But none make as much sense: Blackmon is needed in center, Parra would be a salary dump after a rough year, and Dahl is the kind of cheap, controllable asset the Rockies need given where they set their payroll.

The better use of the team’s resources — assuming further spending increases won’t be approved — would be to take the best offer they can get in a prospect return for Gonzalez while freeing themselves of his salary. That’s because, in part, of the next need on this list …

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Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds

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After the season concludes, we’ll be looking at every team in the league in depth with MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series.  For the time being, though, we’re taking preliminary big-picture looks at what some of the non-contending clubs will need to focus on as part of our Three Needs series.

Let’s jump to the National League Central to look at what the rebuilding Reds will be looking to accomplish this winter, though the usual “three needs” designation may not quite fit in this case.  While the Reds have quite a few needs, they theoretically already have the young talent on hand to address at least some of these problems — now it’s just a matter of which youngsters emerge, fall back or are still a year or two away.

[View Reds Depth Chart]

1. Find regular roles for Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera.  These two are slated to be Cincinnati’s shortstop and second baseman of the future, and the future could begin now if incumbents Zack Cozart or Brandon Phillips are dealt.  Peraza has also seen time in left and center, so there’s some value in using him around the diamond as a Ben Zobrist-esque super-utility player in order to get him in the lineup virtually every day, if a singular position can’t be opened up.

Cozart received a lot of interest at the trade deadline in the wake of his above-average hitting numbers in the first half (.267/.316/.482 in 335 PA), though the Reds couldn’t find a trade partner.  He then went ice-cold in August and September, so while Cozart may not quite have turned a corner at the plate, he still provides outstanding glovework at a key defensive position.  Cozart will get a pretty modest bump from his $2.925MM salary in 2016 via his third and final year of arbitration eligibility, so he’ll surely get some renewed trade interest this winter from teams looking to upgrade themselves at least defensively at shortstop.  Cozart certainly looks like the Reds’ likeliest veteran trade chip, given that their other high-priced vets have major injury issues (Homer Bailey, Devin Mesoraco) or full no-trade clauses (Phillips, Joey Votto).

Phillips already rejected one proposed trade to the Nationals last offseason since the Nats didn’t agree to a contract extension.  It’s now even more unlikely that a trade suitor will talk extension, in the wake of Phillips’ below-average year both offensively and defensively.  In a recent interview, Phillips didn’t sound much more open to waiving his trade protection, so unless (or until) he consents to a deal, the Reds could make the big move of having both Phillips and Herrera compete for the second base job in Spring Training.  This could leave Phillips as a very expensive bench piece, or the Reds could explore moving him to third if Herrera indeed takes over at second.

Of course, Eugenio Suarez has established himself at the hot corner, and it would seem a curious move to displace a 25-year-old for a 35-year-old nearing the end of his tenure with the club.  Keep in mind, however, that the Reds have Nick Senzel (the second overall pick of the 2016 draft) earmarked as their third baseman of the future.  With injuries and NTCs preventing the Reds from shopping most of their veterans, Suarez would be an interesting alternative trade candidate.  He’s coming off a 20-homer season and is still a pre-arbitration player, though with only 2.2 fWAR combined in 2015-16, Cincy probably isn’t looking at Suarez as a member of its next contending team.  Speaking of which, the Reds also need to…

2. Figure out which position players are keepers.  Don’t count on the Reds acquiring anything more than veteran position player depth, as the bulk of their offseason and Spring Training time should be spent deciding on who amongst their interesting crop of young players projects as a long-term piece.

Billy Hamilton took some small but credible steps forward as an offensive player this season.  Hamilton’s speed and outstanding center field glove are worthy of everyday duties anyway, though becoming even an average hitter would make Hamilton into a major threat.  Tucker Barnhart’s pitch-framing and defense is a work in progress, though he can hit well enough to handle the position until the Reds know if Mesoraco is healthy enough to continue on behind the plate.

All-Star Adam Duvall emerged as a big power threat and a surprisingly strong left field defender, though he’ll need to cut down on his strikeouts and improve his on-base percentage.  Scott Schebler posted some solid numbers and looks like he can, at least, serve as the left-handed hitting side of a platoon in right field.  Big-hitting prospect Jesse Winker is knocking on the door for a callup and has been seen time at both corner outfield spots.  Winker is also a left-handed hitter so he’s not ideal as a platoon partner with Schebler, though one would suspect Cincinnati would give Winker the first crack at everyday duties once he gets the call to the bigs.

3. Continue sorting out the pitching, with a focus on the bullpen.  The Reds went into 2016 with about as unsettled a pitching situation as possible, and it resulted in a new Major League record for most homers allowed in a season.  While Anthony DeSclafani, Dan Straily and Brandon Finnegan need to drastically cut down on the long balls, all three have claimed rotation jobs for next season.  Bailey will join them if healthy, though that’s a big “if” given how he’s faced somewhat of a bumpy recovery from Tommy John surgery.  There are plenty of candidates in the mix for the fifth starter’s job, with former top prospect Robert Stephenson tentatively in the lead, though he didn’t impress in his first taste of big league action.  Cody Reed, Keyvius Sampson, John Lamb, Tim Adleman and highly-touted prospect Amir Garrett will also be competing.  A minor trade wouldn’t be out of the question given the number of arms on hand, though given that the rotation is hardly set in stone, the Reds might want to keep as much depth as possible.

Losers of the rotation battle could help out the league-worst bullpen.  There is some hope at the back of the pen, with the combination of Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen standing out as an intriguing closer/setup man pairing.  Beyond those two, there’s really nowhere to go but up given how poorly the Cincy relief corps performed in 2016.  If the Reds target anything in free agency, it could be a veteran reliever or two (on a short-term or minor league contract) just to add some stability.  If these relievers pitch well, the Reds could potentially flip them at the deadline.

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