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Trevor Bauer

Yankees Rumors: Bauer, Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Wheeler

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The Yankees and Twins, two American League powers, staged a memorable three-game battle in Minnesota this week. This round went to the Yankees, who took two of three in an offense-driven set that saw the Bombers live up to their name in outscoring the Twins 30-27.

While the Yankees are now a major league-best 66-35, they’re surely not thrilled with the way their somewhat maligned pitching staff performed against the high-powered Twins. Starters C.C. Sabathia, Domingo German and J.A. Happ were among Yankees hurlers who took beatings, which could intensify the club’s efforts to improve its rotation before the July 31 trade deadline. That remains general manager Brian Cashman’s primary focus, according to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

Over the past several weeks, the Yankees have been connected to just about every top starter potentially available – including the Indians’ Trevor Bauer, the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner, and the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler.

Bauer is near the top of the Yankees’ wish list, per Hoch, who reports they “would love” to see Cleveland make him available. Indians general manager Mike Chernoff seemingly hasn’t closed the door on a Bauer trade, but parting with him would be an unexpected move from a Tribe team that has overcome a difficult start to climb into playoff position. The Indians are 59-42, two games up on the AL’s No. 1 wild-card spot and just two back of the Twins, thanks in part to Bauer. The 28-year-old has racked up a major league-high 152 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA/4.19 FIP pitching with 10.58 K/9 against 3.49 BB/9.

Like Bauer, Bumgarner’s perhaps an indispensable piece to a team that has emerged as a playoff hopeful. Bumgarner looked like a surefire trade candidate all season until the red-hot Giants won 17 of 21 in recent weeks. They’re currently 52-51 and three back of a wild card. The future of Bumgarner, a Giants icon, looks much more up in the air as a result. Regardless, it doesn’t seem as if Bumgarner – who has the Yankees on his limited no-trade list – is New York’s preferred choice. “Yankees people are said to be less enthused with” Bumgarner than Bauer, Hoch writes.

Meanwhile, Hoch relays that the belief is the Mets are uninterested in dealing with the crosstown rival Yankees at all, no matter what they might offer for Syndergaard or Wheeler. That would be unfortunate for the Yankees, who may be the team with the most interest in Syndergaard and would reportedly be willing to trade their premier prospect, Deivi Garcia, for him. As a soon-to-be free agent who’s about to return from a multi-week absence stemming from a shoulder injury, Wheeler has far less trade value than Syndergaard. Andy Martino of SNY reported three weeks ago that the Mets were open to sending Wheeler – then healthy – to the Bronx, but that might not be the case after all.

Even if the Yankees don’t end up with Bauer, Bumgarner, Syndergaard or Wheeler, they do seem likely to strengthen their rotation this month. After Minnesota shredded its staff this week, New York’s starters rank a middling to worse 15th in ERA, 16th in fWAR and 21st in FIP. Nobody from the group has produced truly great numbers, either. Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and German have posted low-four ERAs with aligning peripherals, while Sabathia and Happ have performed like back-end options at best.

One would be remiss to ignore that the Yankees have gone without their ace – Luis Severino – all season because of shoulder and lat injuries. While the Yankees are hopeful the star righty will return in mid to late August, which could provide an enormous boost, it’s unknown whether Severino will be able to go full bore at any point this year. Cashman suggested two weeks ago that Severino could max out at 75 pitches or even work as a reliever. Severino’s ongoing absence has thrown a massive wrench in the Yankees’ plans this year, and it could have a big hand in the club landing an outside starter.

Trade Candidate Faceoff: Bauer Vs. Stroman Vs. Minor

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Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer, Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman and Rangers lefty Mike Minor have been among the most popular names in the rumor mill in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. All three are quality starters who are under control through 2020, so a slew of contenders have predictably shown serious interest in each of them. But who’s the most desirable of the trio?

Perhaps it’s the 28-year-old Bauer, who started his major league career in 2012 with the Diamondbacks. The third pick in the 2011 draft, Bauer was something of a can’t-miss prospect coming up. It took him longer than expected to find his footing in the majors, though, and it didn’t happen in Arizona. It occurred in Cleveland, which acquired Bauer in a three-team trade prior to the 2013 season. Bauer was a useful starter with the Indians from his first full season in 2014 through 2017, but he truly put it all together last year. Across 175 1/3 innings, Bauer notched a 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP with 11.34 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 en route to a sixth-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting.

Bauer probably won’t wind up in Cy Young contention this season, though he has turned in another above-average performance. No major league starter has amassed more innings than Bauer, who has delivered 144 2/3 frames of 3.67 ERA/4.29 FIP pitching with 10.58 K/9 against 3.48 BB/9. But home runs have been a major problem for Bauer compared to last year, when he yielded them on just 6.2 percent of fly balls. The rate has shot to 15.2 this season, while Bauer’s groundball percentage has shrunk from 44.5 to 38.5. He is, however, averaging a personal-best 94.8 mph on his four-seam fastball.

Stroman, also 28, has never encountered trouble racking up grounders in the majors. Since debuting in 2014, Stroman has posted a tremendous 59.7 percent grounder rate, including 57.9 this year. The ability to induce worm burners has long made Stroman effective at preventing runs, even though he’s hardly a strikeout-heavy pitcher. Stroman has fanned just over seven per nine in his career and this season, and has also logged a sub-3.00 BB/9 during those spans. The package of skills has helped Stroman to a praiseworthy 3.06 ERA/3.60 FIP in 117 2/3 innings this season.

Minor, 31, fared nicely as a Braves starter from 2010-14, but injuries knocked his career off course thereafter and kept him out of action from 2015-16. When he returned the next season with the Royals, Minor was a reliever – and an excellent one at that. But after signing a three-year, $28MM contract with the Rangers going into 2018, he returned to a starting role. The results were closer to average than exceptional then, though Minor has made notable strides since. His ERA’s an outstanding 2.86, albeit with a less inspiring 4.08 FIP, in 129 innings. Minor fanned 10 Astros and walked one in seven innings of a losing effort Friday, improving his K/9 to 9.14 and his BB/9 to 3.14. Although Minor hurt his cause by allowing four home runs, he has generally kept the long ball at bay this season.

It’s clear Bauer, Stroman and Minor are all appealing starters, but one can’t simply compare their performances when talking about them as trade candidates. Their salaries also play a key part in the discussion. Bauer’s easily the most expensive of the group this year ($13MM) and could end up in the $18MM to $20MM range during his final trip to arbitration over the winter. Minor comes in next at $9.5MM, but another $9.5MM salary is already etched in stone for 2020. Stroman’s making $7.4MM this season, though he’ll certainly join Bauer in getting a raise in his last year of arbitration.

Weighing all the factors – performance, age, price and what you think each would cost in a trade – which of these hurlers would you most want to acquire in the next week and a half?

(Poll link for app users)

Which starter would you most want to acquire?
Trevor Bauer 48.79% (6,172 votes)
Marcus Stroman 38.27% (4,841 votes)
Mike Minor 12.94% (1,637 votes)
Total Votes: 12,650

AL Notes: Bauer, Castellanos, Pujols, Orioles

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Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer turned in a terrific performance Thursday in a win over the Tigers, striking out 10 and yielding three earned runs on five hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings. Despite Bauer’s importance to the playoff-contending Indians, his name has been frequently bandied about in trade rumors this summer. As a result, Thursday could’ve been one of his last starts as a member of the Tribe. Asked after the game if the rumors have been on his mind, Bauer told Mandy Bell of MLB.com and other reporters: “Nope. Don’t think about it.” Notably, though, Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti did address the team regarding the deadline “to make sure no one was blindsided by any discussions, especially Bauer,” Bell writes.

  • The Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos is likely a more realistic trade candidate than Bauer, but the right fielder suggested Thursday he’s not fully convinced a deal will come together before the deadline. Castellanos said (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) that “I wouldn’t be shocked if I don’t get traded. Everybody thought I’d get traded last trade deadline. Everybody thought I’d get traded this offseason. There were people who thought I’d get traded in spring training.” With an extension between the non-contending Tigers and Castellanos appearing to be out of the question, it’s highly probable the team will part with him this month unless there’s no interest from elsewhere. Regardless, Castellanos indicated to McCosky that he has made peace with whatever happens and is more focused on what happens on the field, where he has been on an offensive tear of late.
  • Angels first baseman Albert Pujols exited the team’s game Thursday with left hamstring tightness, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register was among those to report (Twitter links). It doesn’t seem like an issue that’s going to lead to an IL stint, though, as manager Brad Ausmus said afterward Pujols will miss a small amount of time or none at all. The Hall of Fame-bound 39-year-old has appeared in 76 games this season and hit .243/.306/.439 (96 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 314 plate appearances.
  • Thursday was the one-year anniversary of the Orioles-Dodgers blockbuster that sent former O’s franchise player Manny Machado to Los Angeles. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun revisits the swap in a piece focusing on outfield prospect Yusniel Diaz, the headlining part of the Orioles’ five-player return. Diaz didn’t log great production with Baltimore’s Double-A affiliate after the trade last year, and he told Meoli via an interpreter he felt “a lot of pressure” trying to make good on the trade. That pressure has died down, though, and Diaz is now having a better season than last as a member of the Orioles’ Double-A affiliate. The 22-year-old has progressed with the help of Double-A hitting coach Keith Bodie, as Meoli details in his piece.

Latest On Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber

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Trevor Bauer’s name has continued to be kicked around the rumor mill even as the Indians have narrowed the gap with the division-leading Twins. Zack Meisel of The Athletic chatted with Cleveland GM Mike Chernoff this week (subscription required) about the possibility of a Bauer trade and the delicate balance of trying to win in 2019 while also maintaining a competitive long-term core.

Chernoff spoke frequently about the “future sustainability” of Cleveland’s competitiveness, and while he understandably didn’t make any direct mention of Bauer’s availability (or lack thereof), the GM implied that the club will have to make some tough decisions.

“I also think we’re at a different point organizationally, like we were in the offseason, where a lot more of our guys are maturing on their contracts and so, regardless of our competitive position, you explore different things than you otherwise would have,” said Chernoff. (Cleveland, of course, cut substantial payroll this past offseason and reportedly even discussed moving Bauer and Corey Kluber over the winter.) Chernoff went on to acknowledge the need for “creative” ways to help the organization and a possible “continuation of the offseason plan.”

None of that is a declaration that Bauer will be traded to the highest bidder, but it also doesn’t sound as if such a move is expressly being ruled out. The Indians recently welcomed Mike Clevinger back from the injured list, and they’ve received strong work from sophomore Shane Bieber as well. Rookie Zach Plesac has been a pleasant surprise, too, although fielding-independent metrics suggest that he’s unlikely to sustain his solid ERA.

Beyond Bauer and that trio, Cleveland’s options have been questionable. Adam Plutko and Jefry Rodriguez have pitched poorly. Carlos Carrasco was diagnosed with a treatable form of leukemia, and while his prognosis is thankfully positive, there’s no telling when or if he’ll return in 2019. As such, Bauer is functioning as a vital member of the Cleveland rotation at present, and dealing him away would thin out a rotation that is already shaky after its top few spots.

That said, the Indians could soon welcome a two-time Cy Young winner back into the fold. Manager Terry Francona told reporters today that Kluber will throw a 20-pitch bullpen session tomorrow — his first since sustaining a fractured right forearm upon being struck by a comebacker earlier this season (Twitter link via Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal). Kluber will be limited to all fastballs and will have some extra rest baked in between his first few ’pen sessions, but it’s a decidedly encouraging update for the Indians and their fans.

What isn’t clear and may not become clear until the final hours leading up to the deadline is whether the potential return of Kluber will make Cleveland more willing to part with Bauer or more aggressive in pursuing a division title. The Indians dropped two of three games to the Twins over the weekend, failing to further close the gap between the two teams. Chernoff, though, pointed out to Meisel that his club still has 10 more meetings with the Twins in 2019 — albeit none before July 31. The play of both AL Central clubs over the next two weeks could go a long way in determining Cleveland’s approach as well.

For those still befuddled at the notion of trading Bauer at all when Cleveland is viable postseason contender, the decision seems to boil down to a long-term dilemma. Bauer’s salary is already at $13MM in 2019 and will rise to $18-20MM via arbitration this offseason. He’ll be a free agent after the 2020 campaign and has been open about his plans to play out his career on a series of one-year deals. In other words: he’s expensive, and the Indians have no hope of extending him.

If Cleveland had a wide-open payroll outlook, that might not be a major issue. However, Cleveland ownership seemingly mandated some offseason payroll deductions last winter, prompting the front office to work to get the club’s financial obligations down to the current ~$125MM level. The Indians only have about $48.4MM in guaranteed salary on next year’s books, but that number will balloon quickly with the current roster construction. Kluber’s $17.5MM option figures to be exercised, and Francisco Lindor will see a massive raise to this year’s $10.55MM salary. Add in Bauer’s raise, Clevinger’s first-year arbitration salary and a swath of pre-arb deals, and Cleveland will already be approaching this year’s payroll numbers despite the fact that they’re on pace for an attendance drop.

Trading Bauer would be a painful move for Chernoff and president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti to make, but not one that would be tantamount to forfeiting the season. Cleveland could possibly add a young, MLB-ready piece in that deal and could also turn to the rental market to add a more affordable arm to help patch the hole left by Bauer. That’s just one very hypothetical scenario, of course, but that type of scenario is precisely the kind of “creative” roster juggling the Indians will have to consider in the coming weeks — regardless of eventual outcome.

Indians Notes: Bauer, Otero, Salazar

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Here’s the latest from Progressive Field…

  • While an extra year of control is generally considered as a boon to a player’s trade value, this may not necessarily be the case for Trevor Bauer, as Ken Rosenthal explains in his latest video report for FOX Sports.  Bauer has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining in 2020, though Rosenthal notes that some potential trade partners could be wary of acquiring Bauer due to the high price tag he’ll earn next season.  After defeating Cleveland in an arb hearing in February, Bauer collected a $13MM salary for 2019, and his aggressiveness in seeking out maximum value on an annual basis makes it likely he’ll go to yet another hearing for another big salary next winter.  This could push Bauer’s potential earnings into the $20MM range, which is too costly for some clubs.  There is some comparison between Bauer’s situation and David Price’s situation in 2014, Rosenthal notes, as the Rays’ ability to get a big trade haul for the ace lefty was somewhat limited by the big payday awaiting Price via arbitration in the 2014-15 offseason.  Of course, with the Indians in the playoff hunt, it remains to be seen if the Tribe will trade Bauer whatsoever, or potentially wait until the offseason to further trades (though there’s already a lot of speculation about Bauer being on the move this July).
  • Dan Otero will begin a minor league rehab assignment, manager Terry Francona told MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and other reporters.  The righty hasn’t pitched since May 30 due to right shoulder inflammation, and Otero’s time on the injured list was extended due to a setback in his recovery process.  The ground-ball specialist had a 54.9% grounder rate, 3.33 K/BB rate, 3.8 K/9, and 4.56 ERA over his first 23 2/3 innings for Cleveland this season, with that ERA largely inflated by five earned runs over his last 2 2/3 frames of work prior to his IL stint.
  • Francona also discussed Danny Salazar’s rehab, as the right-hander continues to make his way back to a big league mound for the first time since October 2017.  Salazar has been working as a starter during his rehab outings, though Francona said it’s too soon to say whether Salazar will continue in the rotation should he return to the Tribe’s MLB roster.  “I don’t know how you can forecast a month down the road,” Francona said.  “We might need three starters by then….There’s a lot of things we need to find out.  Information that we don’t have yet.”  Keeping Salazar on a regular five-day schedule as a starter could be beneficial to his bothersome shoulder, though a similar argument could be made that limited bullpen innings would be preferable to a starter’s workload.

Poll: Shopping Trevor Bauer

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MLBTR’s Jeff Todd asked an interesting question Tuesday morning: Should the Mets entertain trade offers for ace Jacob deGrom? To this point, the majority of voters believe they should at least listen to other teams’ proposals for the 31-year-old right-hander. As great as deGrom is, he’s probably not going to help pitch the woebegone Mets into the playoffs this season.

On the other hand, Indians righty Trevor Bauer may aid in a playoff berth for his team yet again in 2019. Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Monday that the Indians are “aggressive listeners” on Bauer as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. There’s wide-ranging interest in Bauer, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Cleveland, which happens to be hosting Tuesday’s All-Star Game, went on a tear to end the season’s first half. Winners of six straight, the Indians are 50-38 – good for the majors’ seventh-highest winning percentage (.568) – and have suddenly made the AL Central race intriguing. For a large portion of the first half, it looked as if the Twins would skate to a division title. Now, though, the Indians sit a manageable 5 1/2 games behind them. The Tribe’s also 1 1/2 games up on the AL’s second wild-card spot and a half-game behind the Rays for the league’s No. 5 seed.

An appreciable amount of the Indians’ success can be attributed to the 28-year-old Bauer, which would make trading him in the next three weeks all the more surprising. No, Bauer hasn’t been the ace-caliber performer he was a year ago. Still, though, Bauer has recorded a 3.61 ERA (granted, with a less inspiring 4.10 FIP) and 10.16 K/9 against 3.48 BB/9 over a major league-leading 132 innings.

It’s hard to believe the Indians would be able to trade Bauer and better themselves for this year, especially in light of the other concerns in their rotation. The Tribe’s starting staff looked like one of the league’s best entering the season. Since then, however, Corey Kluber has struggled and missed a vast amount of the campaign because of a fractured forearm. Mike Clevinger has made just five starts, over which he has been a mixed bag, because of a back injury. Worst of all, the team’s still reeling from the awful news that the excellent Carlos Carrasco, who hasn’t pitched since May 30, is battling leukemia.

The absences of Kluber and Carrasco have left Bauer, Clevinger and stellar young righty Shane Bieber as the lone truly dependable members of the Indians’ rotation. Fill-in Jefry Rodriguez has been on the injured list since June 1 with a strained shoulder, and rookie Zach Plesac has fallen off of late. Meantime, Adam Plutko has posted a below-average ERA (4.95) through 36 1/3 innings, and that outdoes even less shiny peripherals.

All of that said, Cleveland’s in an unenviable position with Bauer, whom it will probably lose soon even if it keeps him through the season. Bauer’s making a somewhat expensive $13MM and only controllable through 2020. If we’re to take his word for it, the offbeat Bauer will be trying to max out on one-year contracts every winter in free agency after that. Therefore, if the Indians weren’t in contention, now would clearly be the time for the Indians to flip Bauer. But the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions are very much in the hunt right now, which could set the stage for an agonizing Bauer decision this month. What do you think they should do?

(Poll link for app users)

What should the Indians do with Trevor Bauer this month?
Listen to offers, but only deal him for a huge return 49.66% (3,913 votes)
Trade him for the best offer 35.10% (2,766 votes)
Keep him and try to win it all 15.24% (1,201 votes)
Total Votes: 7,880

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Trevor Bauer

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10:38pm: There’s interest “around the block” in Bauer, one official told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Astros “are said to be among the most interested,” Sherman writes. Houston has questions in its rotation now beyond Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley, and Verlander is the lone member of the trio who’s under contract past this season. Bauer would somewhat help cover for the potential exits of Cole and Miley in 2020.

6:25pm: The Indians face an interesting potential dilemma — and opportunity — with regard to starter Trevor Bauer. Even as they continue to ramp up the pressure on the AL Central-leading Twins and remain in Wild Card position, the Cleveland organization may consider swapping out the excellent but costly right-hander.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterizes the Cleveland organization as “aggressive listeners” when it comes to Bauer (audio link via Twitter; further discussion via subscription link). That’s an understandable position for the organization to take. After all, any deal would have to both respect the team’s immediate prospects for contention and represent a significant boost to the future outlook.

There’s ample long-term uncertainty between the Indians and Bauer. He’s earning $13MM this year and promises to take down another significant raise on top of that (particularly after twice defeating the club in an arbitration hearing). It will likely be difficult for the team to afford him in 2020. Beyond that, Bauer has made clear for some time now that he intends to head onto the open market and sign a string of one-year contracts. Even if the Indians want to retain him, they’ll need to top quite a few other potential bidders.

That said, there isn’t exactly immediate pressure to do a deal. If the Indians are determined not to hang onto Bauer next season, they can still certainly move him over the offseason. Having already skimped on salary entering this season and run into a surprisingly stiff challenge from Minnesota, the Indians will surely hesitate to draw away too much present ability from the MLB roster. And the rotation is in greater need than might have been anticipated due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. While each is expected to return, it remains to be seen whether either can make it back to top form this season.

If there’s room for a deal, it surely involves a scenario in which the Indians are able to acquire high-quality, MLB-ready position-player talent. There are quite a few marginal offensive performers on the roster at present, leaving ample room to improve. It’s not altogether impossible to imagine a trade coming together, particularly if the Indians can find a partner with a bit of a surplus to work with in the right areas. But this was all largely true over the offseason, when the Cleveland front office explored but did not consummate deals involving its slate of starters.

The obvious connection to be made here is between the Indians and Yankees. The New York outfit needs starters and just so happens to possess an excess young slugger that was once a top performer on the Cleveland farm. But Rosenthal reiterates (as he has suggested previously) that the Yanks don’t want to move Clint Frazier for a quality starter who comes with another season of control. The staying power of that stance seems a bit dubious — if the New York organization was really so convinced of the 24-year-old’s abilities with the bat, it probably wouldn’t have been so eager to displace him from the 2019 roster — but it remains the prevailing characterization of the situation.

That’s not to say the Yankees aren’t interested in Bauer, a 28-year-old hurler who hasn’t been quite as excellent as he was last year but nevertheless paces the American League with 132 frames and carries a strong 3.61 ERA. To the contrary, Rosenthal says that NYY scouting guru Tim Naehring watched Bauer’s most recent outing. As Andy Martino of SNY.tv notes, that’s not necessarily an overly momentous occurrence, though there’s little doubt the Yankees were glad to have a close look at Bauer.

If the Indians do indeed crank up the volume on their headphones and bust out the air guitar for a truly aggressive listening session, they’ll no doubt want to check out some other artists beyond the Bronx Bombers. Quite a few other contenders would no doubt prefer to pay a bit more for Bauer than to give up a haul for a true rental pitcher. In addition to the extra season of control, which could fill a rotation need for next season or be cashed back in via trade, a new team might reasonably anticipate recouping draft compensation in the future by extending a qualifying offer.

AL Central Notes: Mize, Indians, Pineda

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Tigers fans are holding their collective breaths as top prospect Casey Mize, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft, exited last night’s Double-A start with an apparent injury (link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). After a third-inning pitch — a fastball that was clocked at 85-86 mph, per Tom Reisenweber of the Erie Times-News (Twitter link) — catcher Kade Scivicque went to the mound and called out the training staff and skipper Mike Rabelo. Mize departed the game at that point. There’s been no formal update on his condition, though Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle tweets that Mize didn’t have his elbow or shoulder wrapped upon leaving the clubhouse and lifted his own bags onto the team’s bus — none of which seem indicative of a major injury. Presumably, the Tigers will have further updates on Mize in the near future.

Here’s more from the division…

  • The Indians are facing an 11-game deficit in the AL Central, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests that the team won’t act as an aggressive buyer this summer unless it feels there’s a real chance at winning the division. That’s become increasingly clear in recent weeks. As the gap in the AL Central has grown, so too have rumors about the potential availability of coveted pitchers such as Trevor Bauer (controlled through 2020) and Brad Hand (signed through 2021). Morosi notes that Cleveland would be “poised” to listen to offers on that pair, as well as the resurgent Carlos Santana, barring a sudden climb back into the division race. Santana is hitting .286/.406/.530 with 14 homers and more walks (46) than strikeouts (45) through 281 plate appearances in his return to Cleveland. He’s earning $17MM in 2019 and$17.5MM in 2020, though the Mariners are on the hook for $5MM of the salary still owed to him. Santana’s contract also contains a $17.5MM club option, but that’ll be his age-35 campaign.
  • Twins righty Michael Pineda used his recent stint on the injured list to focus on the release point on his slider, he tells Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription required). “I’m focusing especially on my release point and finishing my pitches, especially my slider, because this is my pitch for swings and misses,” said Pineda. “I love my slider.” As Hayes observes, Pineda’s rediscovered confidence in the pitch was apparent. He threw just five sliders in his final start prior to landing on the injured list before uncorking 26 sliders in yesterday’s win over the Mariners. Manager Rocco Baldelli and pitching coach Wes Johnson both feel that Pineda looked more impressive yesterday, and Johnson spoke of his satisfaction with the incremental improvements in Pineda’s progression back from 2017 Tommy John surgery and 2018 knee surgery. Notably, the right-hander’s velocity was up a couple miles per hour yesterday as well. A revitalized Pineda would only add another weapon to an already strong Twins club. Pineda has a 5.04 ERA in 69 2/3 innings but yielded just one run in 5 2/3 frames on Thursday.

The Indians Have Some Difficult Decisions Looming

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The Indians didn’t leave themselves much margin for error heading into the 2019 campaign. Ownership mandated payroll cuts in the offseason while delivering a candid and ominous “enjoy him” message to fans in reference to franchise shortstop Francisco Lindor. Cleveland’s Opening Day lineup looked more like the type you’d expect to see in early Spring Training than that of a division favorite earnestly putting forth its best options. An injury to Lindor weakened the product, but the holes throughout an order that featured Tyler Naquin hitting third were glaring.

A questionable offense was a known trade-off, though, as the Indians were built on the foundation of perhaps the game’s best collection of starting pitchers. Two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber was again joined by co-aces Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, while younger righties Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber rounded out a rotation that would make nearly any team envious.

Fast forward a bit more than 10 weeks, and only Bauer and Bieber are healthy — neither with the results one might’ve expected of them. Clevinger made two starts before going down to a teres major strain that still has him on the injured list (though he’s nearing a return). Kluber suffered a fractured arm when he was struck by a comebacker. Most concerning of all, Carrasco is on the injured list due to a blood condition that has rendered him lethargic and likely contributed to some disappointing on-field results of his own. Even the Indians’ top depth option, Jefry Rodriguez, landed on the IL last week.

The result is an Indians club that trails the surprising Twins by 10.5 games in the AL Central. At 33-32, the Indians are still within 1.5 games of the second AL Wild Card spot, but it’s a tight race. Both the Yankees and the Rays are at 40-24, jostling for the AL East division lead. They’re six games up on another surprising club, the Rangers, and one of New York or Tampa Bay appears quite likely to claim that top Wild Card position. The Red Sox, Indians, Athletics, White Sox and Angels are all within four games of Texas for that second spot. Each of the Rangers, Red Sox and Athletics rather handily tops Cleveland’s -6 run differential.

The Indians are clear Wild Card contenders with a (much) longer shot to fight back into the division race, but for a club that entered the year as a strong favorite in the AL Central, their outlook is unexpectedly bleak. And given the obvious payroll constraints they faced in the offseason, it’s worth questioning whether ownership will dub the 2019 campaign somewhat of a transitional year and look to further cut some costs.

The Indians have just $48.4MM committed to next year’s payroll (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource). That seems plenty manageable, but the number won’t stay at that level. Kluber’s $17.5MM option seems likely to be exercised even with his injury and some unexpected struggles (5.80 ERA in 35 2/3 innings). Lindor and Bauer headline an expensive arbitration class. Lindor already received a $10.55MM salary in his first trip through the process, and while we can’t know precisely what he’ll earn, last year’s Kris Bryant and Mookie Betts cases provide somewhat of a range. Both players earned similar numbers to Lindor in their first arbitration campaigns; Bryant had an injury-hindered year in 2018 and was bumped up to $12.9MM while Betts won the AL MVP and vaulted to $20MM. Lindor will probably check in somewhere near the midpoint — perhaps closer to Betts given that he’s been quite productive since returning from the IL. Bauer, meanwhile, will get a raise on a $13MM salary and could approach the $20MM mark.

The aforementioned $48.4MM figure could balloon to the $100MM vicinity when accounting for the salaries of Lindor, Kluber and Bauer alone. Add Clevinger’s first arbitration salary, the need to supplement the roster in other areas (one of second/third base, the bullpen, the outfield) and several league-minimum players, and it’s easy to see the payroll approaching or even exceeding the current $124MM mark despite a drop in attendance from 2018. All of this is to say that the Indians enter the summer not as the clear-cut buyers that many anticipated but as a team that could plausibly walk the line between a sell-off and some measured upgrades to the roster.

Players like Bauer and Brad Hand will be highly attractive assets who could command sizable returns. Cleveland knows it won’t sign Bauer long-term. The right-hander has been open on multiple occasions about his plans to play out his career on a series of one-year contracts (thus maximizing his salary on a year-over-year basis while also incurring a good bit of risk).

Hand is controlled through 2021 ($7.6MM in 2020, $10MM club option in 2021), and every contender in the game would love the opportunity to add him to its bullpen. His value right now is arguably as high as it was when the Indians acquired him a year ago; Hand has career-bests in ERA (0.98), FIP (1.70), xFIP (2.82) and HR/9 (0.33) at the moment and is eminently affordable. ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote yesterday (subscription required) after chatting with executives around the league that other teams expect Cleveland to trade Hand with his value nearing its apex.

Moving Hand or Bauer wouldn’t do the Indians’ playoff chances any favors, but doing so could yield controllable, near-MLB-ready talent while simultaneously providing the front office with a substantial increase in payroll flexibility this winter — dollars that could be reallocated to putting forth a more complete roster. And selling either or both players wouldn’t totally eliminate the team from contention, given the rather mediocre nature of the AL Wild Card race at the moment and the rebuilding nature of the bottom of the AL Central. It’s even plausible that the Indians could trade one of those players and acquire a more affordable replacement.

For now, the focus will surely remain on narrowing the gap between them and the Twins, and it’s certainly worth highlighting that their upcoming schedule is weak. They’ll play a combined 12 games against the Royals, Tigers and Orioles between now and the All-Star break. That presents a nice opportunity to make up some ground, although the Twins also have seven games against the Royals, three against the Mariners and three against the White Sox in that same span. The Indians and Twins will meet for a three-game set in Cleveland to open the second half.

The Indians needn’t embark on a full-scale rebuild like the ones that are taking place in Kansas City and Detroit — though if they ever did go that route, the price on a player of Lindor’s caliber would be staggering — nor do they even need to throw in the towel for the 2019. But the way the season has played out thus far makes it increasingly plausible that they’ll listen to offers for Bauer or Hand — a scenario few expected back in March.

Padres Seeking Front-End Starter

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The Padres have gotten ace-caliber production from rookie Chris Paddack and quality numbers from fellow young starters Joey Lucchesi and Matt Strahm this year, but they’re still not satisfied with their rotation. The club attempted to acquire Indians co-ace Trevor Bauer toward the beginning of the season, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, who reports it’ll continue to seek a No. 1 starter in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. Additionally, San Diego may look for a left-handed hitter to help balance out a righty-heavy lineup, Rosenthal says (video link).

This isn’t the first time the Padres have been tied to the Indians, having reportedly gone after another of their aces, Corey Kluber, in the offseason. The Indians ended up retaining him and Bauer, though, in part because they were expected to contend this year. At 24-20, it appears they’ll do just that, though the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions are facing plenty of resistance from the first-place Twins. Still, barring a collapse over the next couple months, it may be unrealistic to expect the Tribe to wave the white flag and ship out any of their top pitchers during the season.

Along with Bauer and Kluber, the Padres have reportedly pursued deals for the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard and the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman dating back to the offseason. They also had winter interest in Dallas Keuchel, who remains a free agent almost seven months after hitting the market. Even though Syndergaard hasn’t been his usual dominant self this season, it’s far from a sure thing the Mets would move him and his two-plus years of team control. Stroman, who’s thriving in his penultimate season of control, looks more likely than Syndergaard to change teams during the summer. Rangers lefty Mike Minor is also among controllable starters who may hit the trade block, given that he’s only signed through next season. As for Keuchel, it’s anyone’s guess how much he’ll wind up raking in during his seemingly endless stay on the open market. Furthermore, it’s unknown whether the Padres are still interested in the 31-year-old former AL Cy Young winner.

One thing is clear: Few teams are in better position to make hay on the trade market than the Padres, who continue to boast an enviable farm system. They’re still a work in progress at the big league level, though, as their desire for more starting pitching and offense shows. For the most part, San Diego’s best hitters are right-handed, with first baseman Eric Hosmer the sole lefty-swinging regular on the roster. The lack of balance has been a problem for the Padres, who have only managed an 83 wRC+ with a .686 OPS against right-handed hurlers.

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