Latest On Brewers’ Corner Infield Plans
The Brewers had the worst offense of any playoff contender last year, with a 92 wRC+ that ranked seventh-worst among all major league clubs. Much of those offensive woes can be attributed to the club’s struggles to find quality offense at the infield corners. Milwaukee’s first basemen slashed a collective .237/.301/.381 in 2023, posting an 83 wRC+ that placed them in the bottom three among all clubs. They didn’t fare much better at the hot corner, where Brewers third basemen slashed .231/.315/.365 with a wRC+ of 87.
It’s worth noting that the majority of the players responsible for that production are no longer on the roster. Of the ten players to appear at first base for the Brewers in 2023, only Owen Miller remains with the organization. It’s a similar story at third base, where only Miller and Andruw Monasterio are still with Milwaukee among the seven players the club relied on at the hot corner in 2023. Both Miller and Monasterio have the look of solid, versatile bench pieces but appear miscast as regulars in the lineup with wRC+ marks of 81 and 88 respectively.
Given the club’s extreme lack of viable options at the infield corners, it’s hardly a surprise that Brewers GM Matt Arnold told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that the club views both first and third base as areas of the roster in need of an upgrade, even after acquiring Jake Bauers from the Yankees ahead of last month’s tender deadline. Arnold indicated that the club would have interest in a potential reunion with veteran first baseman Carlos Santana, who slashed a solid .249/.314/.459 in 226 plate appearances after being acquired by the club in a midseason trade with the Pirates over the summer.
The veteran switch-hitter will celebrate his 38th birthday shortly after Opening Day in 2024, but has been among the most consistent and disciplined hitters in the league throughout his tenure as a big leaguer. Throughout his 14 seasons in the majors, Santana has never posted a walk rate below 10.5% or a strikeout rate above 20.2% with near-equal career marks of 14.5% and 16.8%, respectively. That excellent discipline has come at the expense of power in recent years, as Santana posted a meager .148 ISO from 2020-22. 2023 represented something of a rebound on that front, however, as Santana slugged .429 while crushing 23 home runs, the fifth-highest total of his career.
Looking at options beyond Santana, Arnold suggesting that one solution for the infield corners could come internally in the form of Tyler Black. Milwaukee’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and #4 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Black impressed at the plate in 2023 with a .287/.413/.513 slash line in 558 trips to the plate split between the Double- and Triple-A levels. Arnold heaped praise on the lefty slugger, telling reporters (as relayed by Rosiak) that Black is “just so talented and has a lot of upside,” while confirming that Black will have the chance to earn a spot on the big league roster this spring.
One candidate for time at first base the Brewers won’t be entertaining, according to Arnold, is Christian Yelich. The club’s $215MM man has scuffled a bit in recent years following his back-to-back MVP-caliber campaigns in 2018 and 2019 but bounced back somewhat this season, slashing a solid .278/.370/.447 with a wRC+ of 122 while swiping 28 bags in 31 attempts. Despite that solid offensive production, defensive metrics were mixed on Yelich’s performance with the glove in left field. While he accumulated a solid +4 OAA in 2023, DRS wasn’t so kind as only Bryan De La Cruz posted a lower figure than Yelich’s -3 while recording as many innings in the field.
Moving Yelich to first could improve the club’s defense while thinning a logjam in the outfield that includes Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins, and Tyrone Taylor in addition to Yelich. Such a shift is evidently not in the cards for Milwaukee, however, as Arnold suggested he “wouldn’t expect” to see Yelich at first base next year, leaving him to continue patrolling left field or spending time at DH. With the Brewers listening to offers on their glut of young outfielders, it’s possible the aforementioned group of seven outfielders could be winnowed down by a trade before Spring Training rolls around in February.
Brewers GM Matt Arnold On Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Counsell, Prospects
Brewers general manager Matt Arnold met with reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Curt Hogg) for the season wrap-up press conference today, and addressing several major topics facing his team as the offseason begins. One question left open was the status of Brandon Woodruff‘s right shoulder, as Arnold said more will be known once Woodruff has another visit with doctors.
“He’s going to be looked at this week. We’re optimistic,” Arnold said. “We won’t know until the reports come out, but we’re going to wait until he gets another opinion on his shoulder at this point.”
Woodruff suffered a capsular injury to his throwing shoulder just prior to the start of the Brewers’ Wild Card Series with the Diamondbacks, and it was unclear if Woodruff would’ve been able to pitch during any part of a postseason run even if the Brew Crew had made it as far as the World Series. Losing one of their top pitchers to injury proved to be a harbinger of bad news for Milwaukee, as the D’Backs swept the NL Central champions in two games.
Between this latest injury and the shoulder problems that caused Woodruff to miss four months of regular season action, it seems possible that surgery might be on the table as an option, which could threaten Woodruff’s availability for 2024. It also adds another layer of intrigue to the longstanding expectation that at least one of Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, or Willy Adames could be traded.
The three players are entering their final year of arbitration eligibility and will be free agents next winter. Given Milwaukee’s modest payroll, extending even one of the players might not be feasible, and keeping all three beyond 2024 seems out of the question barring a major change in the Brewers’ spending approach.
Arnold acknowledged this financial situation Tuesday, noting “We can never close the door on any [trade] conversations, as you guys know. That’s just the reality of where we are.” However, the GM unsurprisingly also didn’t tip his hand in forecasting any moves, saying “the short answer is that we’re extremely comfortable having” Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames on the roster.
“The foundation is that they’re here and they’re really good players,” Arnold said. “Obviously, anything can happen over the course of an offseason. We’ll certainly have to entertain a lot of different discussions but we recognize the value of these players and how much they mean to our franchise.”
Burnes in particular has seemed like the top trade candidate of the group ever since his disappointed reaction to his arbitration hearing back in February, though Arnold stressed that Burnes “means a ton to what we’ve done here. He’s been a warrior on the mound….We’ll see how it plays out over the course of the offseason, but I would expect him to be here next year.”
In terms of other winter priorities, the Brewers are hoping to boost offense, particularly at first and third base. Acquiring Carlos Santana and Mark Canha at the trade deadline helped solidify the first base spot down the stretch, though Santana is a free agent and Canha will hit the market as well if the Crew don’t exercise their $11.5MM club option on his services. Arnold’s comments might imply that Canha and Santana could be let go if the Brewers want more pop out of the first base position, though Canha isn’t only a first baseman, as he can also play in either corner outfield spot.
Andruw Monasterio seems like a candidate to be a third-base regular since Arnold said the team “liked” his work at the hot corner, though the GM also cited top prospect Tyler Black as a candidate at either infield position, “potentially early on” in the season. If Milwaukee is prepared to give Black a look out of Spring Training, that could mean the team might not pursue an everyday type of veteran corner infielder, in order to not block Black or Monasterio.
There weren’t any new updates on Craig Counsell‘s status, as Arnold said management had yet to sit down with the skipper to discuss a new contract. Counsell’s deal is officially up at the end of October, and he previously told owner Mark Attanasio that he wanted to wait until the season was over to explore an extension. Given the October 31st expiry date on his current contract, the Brewers will have a few weeks of exclusive negotiating time to explore possibilities with Counsell, before becomes a free agent and open to pursuits from other teams — such as the Mets, who now have David Stearns as president of baseball operations and a managerial vacancy after firing Buck Showalter.
Brewers Sign Top Two Draft Picks
The Brewers announced agreements with their top two picks from this year’s draft: Sal Frelick and Tyler Black. Frelick’s bonus landed at an even $4MM, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com, while Black’s deal came in at $2.2022MM (Twitter links).
The fifteenth overall pick, with which Frelick was selected, came with a $3.8858MM slot value. The former Boston College outfielder lands a bit overslot. Frelick was seen as one of the top college position players in the class. He draws praise for his hit tool from the left-handed batter’s box and athleticism. A high-end runner, Frelick moved to center field from the corner outfield for the Eagles this season and flashed potential plus defensive ability at the position.
Listed at 5’9″, Frelick isn’t expected to hit for a ton of power. But his combination of bat-to-ball skills, baserunning and defensive ability placed him among the top ten talents in the class, in the estimation of each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, and Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs. Over three seasons in one of college baseball’s best conferences (the ACC), Frelick hit .345/.435/.521.
While Frelick’s bonus came in a bit above slot, Black’s deal lands right at the value associated with the #33 overall pick. A second baseman from Wright State University, the lefty-hitting Black posted an absurd .353/.468/.612 line over three seasons with the Raiders. That production is no doubt inflated by the subpar pitching he often faced in the Horizon League, but most evaluators remain convicted in his hitting ability. He landed among the top 35 prospects in the pre-draft rankings at the Athletic and FanGraphs based on his advanced hit tool and exceptional feel for the strike zone.
2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results
The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced. The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.
Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon. This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.
For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.
The selections…
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
- Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
- Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
- Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
- Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
- Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
- Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
- Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
- New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
- Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
- Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
- Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
- San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
- Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
- Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
- Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
- St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
- Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
- New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
- Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
- Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
- Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
- Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
- Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
- Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
- San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
- Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
- Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
- Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
- Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
- Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
- Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
- Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
- Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)
