AL East Notes: Yankees, Dickerson, Loney, Orioles
The Yankees have done all of their offseason shopping on the trade market, and John Harper of the New York Daily News spoke to GM Brian Cashman, getting insight into each deal. Cashman said Aaron Hicks was identified early as a target due to age, athleticism and abilities versus left-handed pitching. The trade would’ve been difficult were it not for a “monster” year from Gary Sanchez. “We valued [John Ryan] Murphy highly but we knew it would take a lot to get Hicks,” said Cashman. “If Sanchez hadn’t had the year he had, we might not have been as willing to make that trade.” Cashman said that the Cubs initially asked about Brett Gardner when discussing Starlin Castro, but those overtures were rebuffed. He was also reluctant to give up right-hander Adam Warren, and the Cubs requested him for a month before Cashman caved. On the Aroldis Chapman front, Cashman said the Yankees never got close to acquiring him in July but circled back later this winter. The situation was difficult, considering Chapman’s domestic violence allegations, which Cashman said he discussed multiple times with ownership. He refutes the belief that he didn’t part with much to get Chapman, offering praise for Rookie Davis and stating that knee surgery is the only reason Eric Jagielo isn’t ranked among their top 10 prospects. Cashman also discussed the team’s stance on Andrew Miller earlier in the offseason and offered more quotes than we’ll get to in this brief recap. The entire piece is well worth a full read.
Here’s more from the AL East…
- Dave Cameron of Fangraphs believes that the Yankees are perhaps the most underrated team in Major League Baseball right now due to the extensive focus on their lack of free-agent expenditures. While New York isn’t likely to repeat its offensive success, Cameron notes that the strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates from the team’s pitching staff yielded an xFIP mark that dramatically outperformed the club’s ERA, and historically speaking, there’s reason to believe that the ERA will catch up with the peripherals next season, to some extent. Starlin Castro represents an upgrade at second base, and the Yankees have the game’s best bullpen, Cameron adds, so even with some offensive regression and questions in the rotation, there’s reason to believe they can match or exceed last season’s 87 wins.
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times spoke to Rays manager Kevin Cash as well as third baseman Evan Longoria about the addition of Corey Dickerson to the club’s lineup, and both had positive things to say. Cash spoke about how Dickerson will help to lengthen their lineup, and as Topkin notes, Dickerson is one of several offseason additions that will give Cash a better slate from which to choose when playing matchups. (The Rays have also added Brad Miller, Steve Pearce and Logan Morrison.) Notably, Topkin points out that the addition of Dickerson only further underscores the need to move James Loney and his $8MM salary, which would free first base for Pearce and Morrison and create more DH at-bats for Dickerson.
- The much-expected addition of Yovani Gallardo to the Orioles‘ rotation, if completed, would cause a crunch in the bullpen, observes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The Orioles have Zach Britton, Darren O’Day, Brian Matusz, Brad Brach, Mychal Givens and Dylan Bundy as “locks” to break camp in the ‘pen, he writes, but adding Gallardo to the starting five would mean that both Vance Worley and T.J. McFarland would be competing for a spot in the bullpen. Without one spot remaining, one of the two would indeed seem to be left on the outside looking in, barring an injury of course.
- Regarding Gallardo, MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli tweets that the ball is in the Orioles‘ court at this point, adding that both parties seem to be optimistic about a deal being completed. Gallardo is reportedly said to be discussing a three-year deal, possibly one that includes an opt-out clause, with the Orioles.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12-2-2015
We’ll use this post to keep tabs on arbitration deals struck today in advance of the non-tender deadline. Here’s the latest, with all projections via MLB Trade Rumors:
- The Padres and Brett Wallace have agreed to a one-year contract for the 2016 season, according to a team announcement. Wallace will earn $1MM next season, tweets MLB.com’s Corey Brock, placing him just shy of his $1.1MM projection.
- Backstop Chris Gimenez has agreed to a deal to avoid arbitration with the Rangers, per a team announcement. Gimenez will earn $975K while in the majors, but the deal is a split contract, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets.
- The Orioles announced that they’ve agreed to terms with outfielder Nolan Reimold on a one-year deal, thus avoiding arbitration. Rich Dubroff of CSNMidAtlantic.com reports that Reimold will land a $1.3MM salary (Twitter link). He cleared MLBTR’s projection by $400K.
- The Indians have avoided arbitration with newly acquired outfielder Collin Cowgill by agreeing to a $1MM salary for the upcoming 2016 season, tweets MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. That’s an exact match with his projected salary.
- The Athletics announced that they’ve avoided arb with second baseman Eric Sogard, outfielder Sam Fuld, and newly acquired southpaw Marc Rzepczynski (Twitter link). Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports first reported Sogard’s contract (via Twitter), adding that he receives a $1.5MM salary, which is a bit shy of his $1.7MM projection.
- The Cubs announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with lefty Clayton Richard, who, as MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat reports (on Twitter), will take home a $2MM salary next season. That’s a sizable increase over the $1.1MM at which he was projected.
Earlier Updates
- The Blue Jays have avoided arbitration with first baseman Justin Smoak, per Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). He’ll earn $3.9MM next season with the Jays. That number drastically outpaces the $2MM projected by MLBTR.
- Jose Lobaton and the Nationals have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $1.3875MM, reports James Wagner of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Lobaton’s deal comes in just shy of the $1.5MM he was projected to earn.
- The Phillies announced deals with infielder Andres Blanco and just-claimed outfielder Peter Bourjos. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that Bourjos will receive a $2MM salary and Blanco will be paid $1.45MM in 2016. MLBTR had projected Blanco at $1MM while Bourjos came with a projected tag of $1.8MM.
- Jordan Lyles has a $2.975MM deal with the Rockies, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. The righty will earn a minor bump over his $2.8MM projection.
- The Athletics announced that the team has agreed to a deal with lefty Felix Doubront on a contract for 2016. The value is not known at this time, but he was projected at $2.5MM.
- Backstop A.J. Ellis will receive $4.5MM next year with the Dodgers after striking a deal, Heyman tweets. That’s an exact match for the rate projected by MLBTR and Matt Swartz. The 34-year-old, who had a nice bounce-back campaign in 2015, will hit the open market after the coming season.
- Righty Vance Worley has signed on with the Orioles for $2.6MM, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. That falls just $100K shy of his projected value as a first-year-eligible player. Baltimore added Worley earlier in the winter from the Pirates and figures to utilize him in a swingman capacity.
- The Cubs have agreed to a $1.42MM deal with just-added lefty Rex Brothers, Heyman tweets. Brothers was projected at $1.5MM and will land just south of that figure. Brothers was recently designated by the Rockies and then shipped to Chicago in a minor trade.
- And the Nationals will pay $900K to outfielder/first baseman Tyler Moore for the 2016 season, also per Heyman (via Twitter). He’ll land a bit shy of his $1MM projection, but the more relevant matter here is the fact that Moore will keep his roster spot. That has at times seemed at doubt, particularly with Ryan Zimmerman now entrenched at first base.
Orioles Claim Vance Worley, Designate Jorge Rondon
The Orioles have claimed righty Vance Worley off waivers from the Pirates, according to a team announcement. Baltimore designated fellow right-hander Jorge Rondon to create roster space.
Worley, 28, is set to be eligible for arbitration for the second time. He earned $2.45MM last year as a Super Two player. Pittsburgh enjoyed a stunning turnaround season from Worley in 2014, as he contributed 110 2/3 innings of 2.85 ERA ball and set himself up for the aforementioned arb payday.
But Worley didn’t quite follow through last year, as he worked to a 4.02 ERA in 71 2/3 frames. Rises in his walk rate (2.6 BB/9, up from 1.8) and BABIP (.024 points higher) were contributors to that change. Worley ultimately made just eight starts for Pittsburgh.
Baltimore executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette explained that the club will wait to decide how best to utilize Worley, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (Twitter links). “He’s had a couple good years,” said Duquette. “He’s durable, a good competitor, has good control. He’s just a dependable major league pitcher.”
In Rondon, the Orioles are giving up on a reliever who had not done much in limited chances at the MLB level, but who put up a promising 2.23 ERA over 60 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year (with 7.4 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9). Baltimore had claimed him early last year off waivers from the Rockies.
Pirates Designate Radhames Liz, Recall Vance Worley
The Pirates have designated right-hander Radhames Liz for assignment, as Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review first reported on Twitter. He’ll lose his roster spot to clear 40-man space for the return of fellow righty Vance Worley.
Liz was a surprising big-league signee this offseason, given that he’d last appeared in the majors in 2009. The 31-year-old has shown the ability to miss bats, with 10.4 K/9 on the year. But he has also struggled to keep hitters from reaching base, surrendering four and a half walks and ten hits per nine.
All told, Liz owns a 4.24 ERA in 23 1/3 innings at the major league level on the year, though he put up good results during a mid-season stint at Triple-A (much of it as a starter). Regardless whether he makes it back to the bigs this year, Liz has certainly shown enough — including a nearly 95 mph average fastball — to draw interest again this coming winter.
Worley, 27, had a bounce-back season last year for the Bucs. While he hasn’t been quite as good in 2015, at least in terms of bottom-line results, he’s been effective enough at the big league level with a 3.78 ERA over 69 innings. And he has been been quite effective against Triple-A hitters since being outrighted this summer.
Minor MLB Transactions: 8/10/15
Baseball America’s Matt Eddy has rounded up all the most recent minor moves. Among the notable ones that have not yet appeared on MLBTR …
- Righty Chin-hui Tsao has been outrighted by the Dodgers, per Eddy. The 34-year-old pitched briefly for the Dodgers in 2015 in his first big-league action since 2007 and probably didn’t help his case by allowing three homers in seven innings. He did, however, get fairly good results in the upper levels of the Dodgers’ minor league system this season, posting a 3.93 ERA, 11.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 34 1/3 innings of relief.
- The Marlins signed right-hander Erik Cordier and released infielder Jordany Valdespin, per the report. The 29-year-old Cordier has only appeared in one big-league season (with the Giants, in 2014), but he’s frequently attracted interest from teams looking to fill out their Triple-A clubs, since he throws in the upper 90s and generates strikeouts. As one might expect from a Triple-A reliever with such a profile, though, he has control issues, walking 5.1 batters per nine innings in his minor league career. The Marlins outrighted Valdespin last month. He’s spent most of the season with Triple-A New Orleans, where he’s hit .293/.348/.387 while playing second base and all three outfield positions.
- The Brewers released several minor leaguers, including lefty Michael Kirkman and infielder Donnie Murphy, Eddy adds. The 28-year-old Kirkman pitched parts of five seasons with the Rangers from 2010 through 2014, but he has only appeared in the minors in 2015, pitching 32 innings with the Brewers’ Triple-A team in Colorado Springs. He’s posted a 2.81 ERA with 9.6 K/9 but with a very high 7.9 BB/9. Murphy has hit .257/.352/.371 in 162 plate appearances with Colorado Springs, playing all four infield positions. He has appeared in parts of nine big-league seasons with the Royals, Athletics, Marlins, Cubs and Rangers, although he hasn’t played in the big leagues this year.
- Also, the Red Sox have signed lefty Rich Hill out of the Atlantic League, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. Hill, 35, pitched at Triple-A for the Nationals earlier in the season and posted a 2.91 ERA and 32 strikeouts over 21 2/3 innings, although he also walked 21 batters. The Nationals released him in June, and he made one start for the Long Island Ducks. Hill appeared in 16 games with the Angels and Yankees in 2014.
- Pirates righty Vance Worley has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Indianapolis, Cotillo adds on Twitter. Worley recently lost his roster spot when Pittsburgh added Joe Blanton. He’d have foregone the remainder of his $2.45MM salary by electing free agency. Worley has been fairly effective this season while pitching mostly in a swingman role (3.78 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9), so he could return to the Pirates when rosters expand in September.
Pirates Outright Vance Worley
AUGUST 8: The Pirates have outrighted Worley to Triple-A Indianapolis, according to the MLB.com transactions page. The money remaining on Worley’s $2.45MM contract — modest, but still well above the league minimum — might have prevented other teams from making a claim. Either way, Worley has been relatively effective in his two years with the Pirates, and he’ll likely rejoin them in September, if not before.
JULY 30: The Pirates have designated righty Vance Worley for assignment, the club announced. His roster spot was needed after the club acquired Joe Blanton late yesterday.
Phillies teammates for three years, Worley and Blanton won’t have a chance to pitch together for a second Pennsylvania club. Both have experienced modest career resurgences, and now it’s Worley’s turn to see if he can find a new opportunity.
The 27-year-old Worley had a great year for Pittsburgh last year, with a 2.85 ERA over 110 2/3 innings earning him a $2.45MM arbitration payday. He’s been solid again in 2015 — he carries a 3.78 ERA over 69 innings, with 6.1 /9 against 2.5 BB/9 — but lost his rotation spot along the way. He could draw some interest from teams looking to add innings, though his salary may complicate things.
Trade Notes: Red Sox, Hamels, Gee, Mets, Pirates
Joel Sherman of the New York Post runs down a list of the teams with obvious trade candidates this spring and notes that executives to whom he spoke most often mentioned the Red Sox as a team to watch. Sherman examines speculative landing spots for Allen Craig, Shane Victorino and Jackie Bradley. He feels that a healthy Victorino would be an idea fit in Seattle in front of Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano (though I don’t imagine Seattle having interest given their platoon acquisition of Seth Smith and Justin Ruggiano). For Craig, he theorizes that the Angels make some sense, should Josh Hamilton face a lengthy suspension. And the Braves have long fancied Bradley, even before Melvin Upton went down with a foot injury, Sherman adds. Sherman also runs down situations in Los Angeles, San Diego, Toronto, Chicago and Philadelphia.
A bit more from his piece and a few other trade-related notes from around the league…
- As Sherman notes, many out-of-options players will become trade candidates at the end of Spring Training, and he feels that some such candidates could be outfielder David Lough, infielder Eduardo Nunez, lefties Felix Doubront and Brad Hand, and right-handers Jacob Turner, Randall Delgado, Stolmy Pimentel and Jesse Chavez. I’d be a bit surprised to see Chavez moved coming off such a strong season, though it’s certainly possible. Lough, in particular, strikes me as someone who could interest clubs, given his elite defense and his strong numbers against right-handed pitching.
- While each side will privately acknowledge that they’ve been in contact with the other, talks between the Red Sox and Phillies regarding Cole Hamels have been dormant for weeks, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nightengale spoke to Boston GM Ben Cherington and Red Sox pitchers Rick Porcello and Wade Miley about the confidence each has in their current staff.
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson tells MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo that it’s “fair to say” there’s been little to no recent trade talk regarding right-hander Dillon Gee and any of the Mets’ other starting pitching options (Twitter link). Gee seems destined to open the season in the bullpen, barring an injury or a spring injury to a rotation member.
- Travis Sawchick of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review takes a look at the spring battle between Vance Worley and Jeff Locke for the Pirates‘ fifth spot in the rotation, noting that neither is a candidate for a bullpen spot, so the loser of the battle could ultimately end up as a trade candidate. Sawchik notes that it’s possible that both could end up breaking camp with the team, should Charlie Morton open the season on the DL (or should the Bucs incur another spring injury), but he predicts that Worley will win the rotation spot if everyone else is healthy.
Players Win Six Of 14 Arbitration Hearings
The Mariners’ defeat of reliever Tom Wilhelmsen today ended this offseason’s arbitration season. This year, 14 players went to arbitration hearings, with the players winning six times and teams winning eight. Via MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, here are the results.
| Player | Team | Player Amt. | Team Amt. | Player won? |
| Pedro Alvarez | Pirates | $5.750MM | $5.250MM | Yes |
| Jerry Blevins | Nationals | $2.400MM | $2.200MM | Yes |
| Alejandro De Aza | Orioles | $5.650MM | $5.000MM | No |
| Josh Donaldson | Blue Jays | $5.750MM | $4.300MM | No |
| Mat Latos | Marlins | $10.400MM | $9.400MM | No |
| Mike Minor | Braves | $5.600MM | $5.100MM | Yes |
| Jarrod Parker | Athletics | $1.700MM | $0.850MM | No |
| David Phelps | Marlins | $1.875MM | $1.400MM | No |
| Wilin Rosario | Rockies | $3.300MM | $2.800MM | No |
| Mark Trumbo | Diamondbacks | $6.900MM | $5.300MM | Yes |
| Danny Valencia | Blue Jays | $1.675MM | $1.250MM | Yes |
| Neil Walker | Pirates | $9.000MM | $8.000MM | No |
| Tom Wilhelmsen | Mariners | $2.200MM | $1.400MM | No |
| Vance Worley | Pirates | $2.450MM | $2.000MM | Yes |
A few notes:
- Via MLBTR’s 2014 Arbitration Tracker, only three players (Andrew Cashner, Vinnie Pestano and Josh Tomlin) had hearings last year, so 14 hearings this year marks a dramatic spike. No players had hearings in the 2012-2013 offseason, and seven players did in 2011-2012. The number of hearings this offseason was the most since 2001, although not everyone is convinced this is the start of a trend, according to the Associated Press. ”Just as I didn’t think [2012-2013] was the start of a trend when we had no hearings, I do not think any conclusions can be drawn at this point from the increased number of hearings this year,” says MLB chief legal officer Don Halem.
- The Pirates alone took three players to arbitration, as many as all teams combined in the previous two offseasons.
- Teams will pay the 14 players who went to arbitration $57.925MM next season, saving a total of about $1.5MM versus the midpoints between those 14 players’ proposed figures and those of their teams.
- There appears to be no obvious pattern in which players won and which lost (which isn’t necessarily surprising, since the terms of each arbitration hearing are set ahead of time by the teams and agents who determine the figures, and not by the arbitrators). As CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman notes (via Twitter), better established players (like Josh Donaldson, Neil Walker and Mat Latos) mostly lost their hearings, while players coming off mediocre or poor seasons, like Pedro Alvarez, Mark Trumbo and Mike Minor, won theirs.
- In terms of overall dollar value, Donaldson might be the player most affected by the result of his hearing, which he lost. There was a fairly large gap (over $1.4MM) between his proposed figure and that of the Blue Jays. Donaldson is also a Super Two player in the midst of his first year of arbitration eligibility, and his salary for 2015 could impact his salary in the next three seasons after that.
Vance Worley Wins Arbitration Case Against Pirates
Right-hander Vance Worley has won his arbitration case against the Pirates, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. That means Worley will earn his filing amount of $2.45MM, rather than Pittsburgh’s submission of $2MM.
The 27-year-old was eligible for arbitration for the first time as a Super Two. That means that Pittsburgh can control him for three more seasons if it so chooses.
Worley represents the latest turnaround story out of Pittsburgh. He tossed 110 2/3 innings of 2.85 ERA ball in 2014 after joining the organization on a cash swap last spring. With 6.4 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 and a 49.4% groundball rate, Worley’s peripherals backed his success, though obviously not quite to the outstanding run prevention level he achieved.
Notwithstanding a rough 2013 season — both in terms of performance and results — Worley has consistently generated ERA estimations in the mid-3 to low-4 earned run per nine range. That makes for a useful asset, particularly given his youth and contract status.
With his victory, Worley pushed his earnings closer to, but still shy of, the $2.9MM that MLBTR/Matt Swartz had projected. As always, you can keep up to date on arbitration news by clicking on MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Arbitration Roundup: 54 Players Exchange Figures
With today’s flurry of activities in the books, 144 players have agreed to deals to avoid arbitration for a total spend of $433MM. But that leaves 54 players who have exchanged figures and have ground left to cover before their 2015 salaries are settled. That number is up from last year’s tally of 39, and may point to the possibility that we will see more hearings than the three in 2014 (which was itself up from zero the year before).
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is a great resource for seeing where things stand. It is fully sortable and even allows you to link to the results of a search. (The MLBTR/Matt Swartz arbitration projections are also quite handy, of course.) Using the tracker, I compiled some broad notes on where things stand in the arbitration process this year.
Remember, deals avoiding arbitration can still be reached even after the exchange of numbers. Hearings will be scheduled between February 1st and 21st, so there is plenty of time for the sides to come together before making their cases.
That being said, some teams are known for their “file and trial” approach to arb-eligible players, meaning that they refuse to negotiate after the exchange deadline and go to a hearing if agreement has not been reached. Among those clubs (the Brewers, Rays, Marlins, Blue Jays, Braves, Reds, and White Sox, per the most recent reporting), there are several open cases remaining: Mat Latos and Michael Dunn (Marlins), Josh Donaldson and Danny Valencia (Blue Jays), Mike Minor (Braves), and Aroldis Chapman, Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier (Reds).
Meanwhile, some other clubs have historically employed the “file and trial” approach on a modified or case-by-case basis: the Pirates, Nationals, and Indians. Among those clubs, the Pirates (Neil Walker, Vance Worley) and Nationals (Jerry Blevins) have open cases, though all of them feature relatively tight spreads.
And there are some other interesting cases to keep an eye on as well. Consider:
- The Orioles and Royals not only faced off in last year’s American League Championship Series, but find themselves staring at by far the most unresolved cases (six and eight, respectively). They are also the only teams with eight-figure gaps between their submissions and those of their players ($10.85MM and $10MM, respectively).
- Among the Orioles players, two stand out for the significant relative gulf separating team and player. Zach Britton, who excelled after taking over as the closer last year, filed at $4.2MM while the team countered at $2.2MM, leaving a $2MM gap that is worth nearly 91% of the club’s offer. Even more remarkably, the O’s will need to bridge a $3.4MM gap ($5.4MM versus $2MM) with surprise star Steve Pearce. That spread is 1.7 times the value of the team’s offer and easily beats the largest difference last year (Logan Morrison and the Mariners, 127.3%).
- Of course, it is worth remembering that first-year arb salaries have added impact because they set a baseline for future earnings. (Each successive year’s salary is essentially calculated as an earned raise from that starting point.) For the Reds, the outcome of their cases with Frazier ($5.7MM vs. $3.9MM) and Mesoraco ($3.6MM vs. $2.45MM) could have huge ramifications for whether the team will be able to afford to keep (and possibly extend) that pair of strong performers.
- Likewise, the Angels face an important showdown with Garrett Richards, a Super Two whose starting point will factor into three more seasons of payouts. As a high-upside starter, he has sky high earning potential, so any savings will be most welcome to the team. The current spread is $3.8MM versus $2.4MM, a $1.4MM difference that equates to 58.3% of the team’s filing price.
- Interestingly, the biggest gap in absolute terms belong to Pearce and the Orioles at $3.4MM. After that come Bud Norris and the Orioles ($2.75MM), David Freese and the Angels ($2.35MM), Greg Holland and the Royals ($2.35MM), Dexter Fowler and the Astros ($2.3MM), Eric Hosmer and the Royals ($2.1MM), and Aroldis Chapman and the Reds ($2.05MM).
Of course, plenty of deals already got done today. Here are some of the more notable among them:
- David Price agreed to a $19.75MM salary with the Tigers that stands as the single highest arbitration payday ever, by a fair margin.
- Interestingly, the Rays agreed to rather similar, sub-projection deals with all seven of their arb-eligible players. Discounts on Swartz’s expectations ranged from 3.23% to 13.21%. In total, the club shaved $1.525MM off of its tab.
- The opposite was true of the Tigers, who spent a total of $1.4MM over the projections on just three players. Of course, since one of those players was Price, the commitment landed just 5.2% over the projected total.
- Detroit’s overages pale in comparison to those of the Cubs, who handed out several of the deals that beat the projections by the widest relative margin and ended up over $2.5MM (14.5%) over their projected spend.
- The MLBTR/Swartz model badly whiffed (over 50% off) on just three players, all of whom earned well over the projections: Chris Coghlan of the Cubs (78.9%), Carlos Carrasco of the Indians (66.9%) Tony Sipp of the Astros (60%).
- On the low side, the worst miss (or the biggest discount, depending on one’s perspective) was Mark Melancon of the Pirates, who fell $2.2MM and 28.9% shy of his projected earnings. Danny Espinosa (Nationals) and Chris Tillman (Orioles) were the only two other players to fall 20% or more below their projections. Of course, in the cases of both Melancon and Tillman, Swartz accurately predicted that they would fall short of the model.