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Padres Acquire Daniel Hudson From Nationals

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The Padres have acquired one of the top relievers on the trade market. San Diego announced a deal with the Nationals to add Daniel Hudson to the late-inning mix. Two prospects — pitcher Mason Thompson and infielder Jordy Barley — are expected to head to Washington in return.

Hudson becomes the latest player out the door as part of the Nationals broader sell-off. Washington is finalizing a deal to send Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to the Dodgers and has already announced agreements to move Brad Hand and Kyle Schwarber. Once GM Mike Rizzo and his staff embarked on the teardown, a Hudson deal became increasingly likely given his impending free agency.

The right-hander has long been a productive reliever, but he’s taken his game to a new level this year. The 34-year-old has a career-low 2.20 ERA across 32 2/3 innings, striking out an elite 37.8% of opposing hitters against a tidy 5.5% walk rate. There’s little question he’s capable of stepping into high-leverage innings for the Padres, who are amidst a three-way battle in the NL West. That won’t be the case immediately, though, as Hudson landed on the COVID-19 injured list this morning as the virus spread throughout Washington’s clubhouse.

Hudson is playing out the season on a $6MM contract, a bit more than $2MM of which is still owed. His two-year, $11MM deal comes with a $5.5MM luxury tax hit, which prorates to about $1.9MM. The Padres are reportedly a bit over the $210MM threshold, but indications are that ownership is willing to pay some extra expenditures. The Friars’ reported talks with the Nationals about Scherzer this afternoon would’ve likely pushed San Diego well above that line had they resulted in a deal, for instance. Of course, there’s also the possibility that Washington retains some salary.

In order to add Hudson for the stretch run, San Diego parts with Thompson, a 2016 third-round draftee. The righty has made his first four big league appearances this season but spent the bulk of the year with Triple-A El Paso. A pure reliever, Thompson has tossed 26 2/3 innings over 23 appearances, working to a 5.74 ERA with slightly lower than average strikeout and walk rates (21.8% and 7.3%, respectively) in that hitter-friendly environment. He’s already on the 40-man roster and has a pair of minor league option years remaining beyond the current season.

Barley has been in the Padres organization since signing as a member of San Diego’s massive 2016-17 international class. At one point, the speedster was a fairly well-regarded prospect, but he’s struggled to hit in the low minors. Barley has posted higher than average strikeout rates throughout his professional career, and that’s continued this season. The 21-year-old is hitting .240/.333/.388 with a 29.4% strikeout percentage in Low-A. Entering the season, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Barley as the #28 talent in the Padres system.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Padres and Nationals were in discussions on a Hudson deal. Jim Bowden of the Athletic confirmed the trade had been agreed upon. Dennis Lin of the Athletic was first to report Thompson’s inclusion. Jon Heyman of MLB Network was first to report a second prospect was involved, with Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post specifying Barley’s inclusion.

Padres Close To Acquiring Max Scherzer, But Other Teams Still In The Mix

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6:19 pm: The Angels are also still in the mix for Scherzer, according to Heyman.

4:40 pm: Other teams are indeed still trying to top the Padres’ offer for Scherzer, says Rosenthal. While Washington and San Diego have “essentially” agreed on the framework of a trade, the various obstacles involved with Scherzer’s situation (particularly his no-trade rights) continue to loom over the discussions.

3:58 pm: While the Padres are heavily involved in the market for Scherzer, Heyman reiterates that other clubs (perhaps including the Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox) still believe they have a chance to land the ace.

3:24 pm: The teams have agreed on the players involved, pending medical reviews, according to Jim Bowden of the Athletic. Scherzer still needs to waive his no-trade rights, although recent reports suggested he’d be willing to do so to move to one of the NL West contenders.

3:12 pm: The Padres are nearing a deal to acquire Max Scherzer, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). Jon Morosi of MLB.com had reported the Friars’ efforts to land Scherzer were “intensifying” moments before Rosenthal. The deal is not yet complete, cautions Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

Assuming the deal eventually crosses the finish line, it’ll be the latest in a line of impact starting pitching acquisitions for San Diego that dates back to last summer. Within the past twelve months, the Padres have acquired Mike Clevinger, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. They’re now on the verge of landing perhaps their most notable pitcher of all, a three-time Cy Young award winner who started for the National League in this year’s All-Star game.

Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.

It’s the continuation of what has been a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. It proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17. He was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. And Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.

With Scherzer scheduled to reach free agency again this offseason, the Washington front office was faced with a decision — hold onto Scherzer in hopes of making a playoff push, or move him to a contender for an influx of young talent? For a while, it seemed as though the Nats would play well enough that keeping Scherzer was the obvious choice. They’ve struggled coming out of the All-Star Break, though, with a sweep at the hands of the Orioles last weekend seemingly sealing the team’s fate as sellers.

Washington sits at 47-54, fourth place in the National League East and seven games back of the division-leading Mets. They entered play today with just a 1.1% chance of reaching the postseason, in the estimation of FanGraphs. Nationals brass hasn’t traditionally been keen on trading away star players. Still, the deficit became too much to reasonably expect to overcome, particularly with Stephen Strasburg officially done for the season and star shortstop Trea Turner now out for the next-week plus after testing positive for COVID-19.

Successful and beloved as Scherzer has been in Washington, it became apparent in recent days that a trade would be in the cards. Such a move isn’t without complications though, most notably Scherzer’s full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player (one with ten years of major league service, the past five of which have come with the same team).

Scott Boras, Scherzer’s agent, suggested earlier in the summer that the pitcher could require some form of contractual inducement (perhaps even an extension) to approve any deal. He later walked back those comments, though, and recent reports suggested Scherzer was willing to approve a move to certain destinations — particularly those on the West Coast. Obviously, the Padres would fit that bill, but the Nationals were still motivated to work out a deal well in advance of tomorrow’s 4:00 pm EST deadline in order to sort that situation out.

There’s also the matter of finances to consider. Scherzer’s playing out the year on a significant $35MM salary, a little less than $12MM of which remains to be paid. That money is entirely deferred until 2028, part of a broader trend throughout the term of his deal. While Scherzer is an impending free agent, he’ll still be owed $15MM every year from 2022-28 in deferrals. It’s not precisely clear how the Nationals and Padres will divide those payments (assuming the trade is completed), although the majority of those obligations will certainly be paid by the Nationals.

The Padres’ series of big-ticket trade and free agent acquisitions in recent years has pushed their payroll to unprecedented heights for the organization. The Friars are reportedly a little above the $210MM luxury tax threshold. Scherzer’s prorated luxury tax hit for the remainder of the season is right around $10MM. If the Friars pick up the remainder of his contractual obligations, they’ll certainly wind up above the luxury threshold, although previous reports suggested ownership was willing to greenlight such a move to accommodate an impactful summer acquisition.

San Diego would be a first-time payor of the competitive balance tax. That’d subject the franchise to a 20% tax on any overage between $210MM and $230MM (an approximate $2MM penalty if they assume Scherzer’s remaining deal). Should the Friars push their luxury number above $230MM, they’d pay a 32% tax on expenditures between that number and $250MM.

Either way, the overage penalties are an exceedingly small price to pay for a pitcher of Scherzer’s caliber. The Padres entered play today in third place in the NL West, 5.5 games back of the Giants. They’re 3.5 behind the Dodgers for the top Wild Card spot but five games clear of the Reds for the NL’s final postseason spot. The Friars seem likely to make the playoffs in some capacity. If acquired, Scherzer would be an option to start a potential Wild Card game.

If San Diego gets into an NLDS, a playoff rotation involving Scherzer, Darvish, and Musgrove would be capable of shutting down the best opposing lineups. That’s without even accounting for Snell, Dinelson Lamet, Ryan Weathers or Chris Paddack, who could be options to start a fourth game and/or work multiple innings of relief.

The Padres’ acquisition of Scherzer (if completed) would also have huge implications on the trade market for other top starting pitchers — most notably Minnesota’s José Berríos. San Diego was reportedly heavily involved in the Berríos market in recent days. A Scherzer pickup would seemingly take them out of that mix, but the other two NL West contenders are among the teams known to be interested in the Twins’ righty.

The Dodgers and Giants probably won’t feel obligated to up their offers on Berríos specifically because the Padres are on the verge of a Scherzer deal. Front offices don’t tend to be that reactionary to division rivals’ moves in this day and age. But both those teams were also speculated as potential fits for Scherzer, and his landing elsewhere could leave Berríos as the only true top-of-the-rotation arm still available in the next 24 hours.

Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox Reportedly Most Active Teams In Jose Berrios Market

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5:44 pm: The Rays, Blue Jays and Red Sox are the most active teams in the Berrios market, reports Heyman, who adds that the division’s other contender, the Yankees, have also checked in. It doesn’t seem likely that the Mets — who have long been interested in Berrios but deterred by the Twins’ asking price — will wind up landing him. The Mets continue to be put off by Minnesota’s demand, hears Andy Martino of SNY, and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com suggests that’s also the case in discussions between the two clubs regarding Pineda.

2:39pm: The Twins have numerous offers in hand for Berrios, per Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic, who add that the market has exceeded the Twins’ initial expectations (Twitter link). A trade is seen as increasingly likely. TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that the Blue Jays are “definitely” in the mix for Berrios.

2:34pm: The Twins are getting “bombarded” with offers for Berrios, Nightengale tweets, adding that the Padres in particular are being aggressive in their efforts.

1:58pm: Some teams who’ve spoken to the Twins about Berrios get the sense that they’re more willing to move him now than they were earlier in the summer, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman lists the Dodgers as a team with interest, and, like myriad other recent reports, also indicates the Padres have interest. Dan Hayes of The Athletic recently wrote that the Padres had interest in Berrios, Michael Pineda and Kenta Maeda. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that San Diego is more focused on Berrios than on Max Scherzer.

8:11am: The Twins have already traded away Nelson Cruz, and with an off-day Thursday, today’s focus figures to be entirely on their deadline efforts to reload the club for 2022 and beyond. Jose Berrios is Minnesota’s most coveted trade candidate, and Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that offers for Berrios “have spiked” with the trade deadline now less than 48 hours away.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Mariners have been pursuing a Berrios acquisition this week, with the Twins focusing on one of Seattle’s top pitching prospects (Emerson Hancock or George Kirby) as part of a multi-player return. The two sides aren’t close to a deal, Morosi adds. Both Hancock (2020) and Kirby (2019) were first-round picks in recent Mariners drafts and have pitched at Class-A Advanced this year. Both players have missed time with shoulder fatigue this year, but Hancock returned this week and Kirby is expected back within the next couple of weeks, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweeted a couple days ago.

The Mets, too, have been linked to Berrios throughout the month of July, but all indications to this point have been that they consider the asking price too steep. Indeed, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Mets are “very” interested but also had “sticker shock” when the Twins initially asked for a combination of two top-100 prospects and a young big leaguer. Beyond that, the Mets’ lack of premium pitching prospects may be a problem. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets would perhaps need to involve a third team if they hoped to actually land Berrios. They’ve recently been more connected to rental pitchers.

Of course, virtually every contender or pseudo-contender has checked in with the Twins on Berrios’ asking price, given his affordable $6.1MM salary for the 2021 season as well as his remaining year of arbitration eligibility before free agency. The 27-year-old Berrios is enjoying the best season of an already impressive career, having pitched to a 3.48 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (25.7) and ground-ball percentage (43.6). His 6.5 percent walk rate is the second-lowest of his career, and the durable right-hander’s current pace would put him in line to land somewhere in the 195 to 200 range in terms of total innings pitched.

Red Sox Among Teams In Mix For Max Scherzer

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3:10 pm: While reports this morning suggested the Padres were more focused on Berrios, the Friars have “intensified” their efforts to land the Nationals ace this afternoon, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).

11:44am: The Red Sox are indeed in the mix for Scherzer, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that Scherzer is open to a trade to Boston. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, meanwhile, hears that Scherzer would not approve a trade to the Astros or Phillies.

9:54am: Max Scherzer remains the most intriguing trade candidate on the market, and interested parties will get one more look at him before deciding on an asking price. Nats skipper Dave Martinez announced to reporters Thursday morning that Scherzer will start Game 1 of today’s doubleheader against the Phillies (Twitter link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). It seems likely this will be Scherzer’s final start with the Nationals, and it’ll serve as an audition of sorts to prove that his triceps is at full strength; Scherzer was scratched from his Saturday start due to minor triceps discomfort, but an MRI has since come back clean.

With a reported preference to land with one of the three NL West contenders and full no-trade rights to help guide him to a destination he likes, it feels like a matter of when he’s traded rather than one of if. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets that there’s a feeling throughout the organization that a trade will come together today.

That’s sensible, as the Nats want to leave as much time as possible post-agreement to sort out the finer details of Scherzer waiving his no-trade rights. Adjustments to his contract’s salary deferrals or smaller details along those lines could be arranged as compensation for Scherzer waiving his 10-and-5 no-trade protection. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Covid outbreak with which the Nationals are currently dealing may have preoccupied some key Nats personnel and slowed the pace of talks, as some expected them to have a deal in place by last night.

The acquisition price for premium rentals (e.g. Nelson Cruz, Starling Marte) has been viewed as steep thus far, and Rosenthal unsurprisingly suggests that Washington has a high price on Scherzer. We’ve yet to see one of the premium rental pitchers change hands, however — perhaps because other clubs want to wait until Scherzer is off the board before pushing their own rental starters.

While the prevailing wisdom at the moment is that one of the Giants, Padres or Dodgers are the favorites to land Scherzer, there are at least a couple other possibilities of note. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden writes that Red Sox ownership has pushed the front office to pursue a deal, for instance. The Sox have already been linked to Scherzer, but they’d be something of a surprise fit, given ownership’s longstanding reluctance to cross the luxury tax threshold. Scherzer would have to be viewed as a player worth making that exception, or the Red Sox would likely have to bolster their prospect package in order to convince the Nationals to pay down the remaining salary on Scherzer’s contract. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, meanwhile, suggests that the Padres are more focused on Minnesota’s Jose Berrios than they are on Scherzer at the moment.

Padres Reportedly Hoping To Include Eric Hosmer In Potential Joey Gallo Trade

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It’s no secret the Padres have been interested in Rangers star Joey Gallo for at least the past few weeks. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News sheds some light on the teams’ conversations, reporting that San Diego has inquired about Texas’ willingness to acquire Eric Hosmer as part of the deal. If Texas were willing to take on some of Hosmer’s contract, the Friars could potentially make top outfield prospect Robert Hassell III available, according to Grant.

Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic reported earlier this week that the Padres were discussing potential Hosmer trades. The goal, of course, would be to clear some of the first baseman’s remaining contract from the books. Hosmer signed an eight-year, $144MM deal during the 2017-18 offseason. He’s playing this season on a $20MM salary (of which around $7.2MM remains through the end of the year), and he’ll make the same amount next season. He’ll make $13MM each season from 2023-25, unless he triggers an opt-out clause after the 2022 campaign.

Rosenthal and Lin reported that San Diego currently sits a couple million dollars north of the $210MM luxury tax threshold. While ownership is reportedly willing to exceed that mark, the Padres have also explored ways to duck back underneath, with a potential Hosmer deal part of that equation.

Unsurprisingly, Grant writes that the Friars would have to include some amount of cash to facilitate a swap involving Hosmer and Gallo. Hosmer’s hitting an average .265/.329/.378 through 363 plate appearances this season, hardly enough to hold much appeal to other teams given his significant price tag.

The Rangers’ long-term books are relatively open, which could make Texas more receptive to taking on some of Hosmer’s contract in order to add one of the game’s most dynamic prospects to the farm system. Hassell was the eighth overall pick in last year’s draft, and he’s hitting .307/.403/.455 across 325 plate appearances in Low-A this season. Baseball America ranked the 19-year-old the game’s #50 overall prospect in their midseason top 100 update.

Of course, doing so would require parting with Gallo, who is hitting a fantastic .223/.379/.490 with 25 home runs through 388 trips to the plate this year. With Gallo only controllable through 2022 and Texas looking unlikely to contend as soon as next season, he’s a sensible trade candidate. It doesn’t seem a lock he’ll be moved, as Texas has attempted to broker an extension with the slugger. However, Grant writes the sides have apparently “made little in the way of progress” on a long-term deal in recent days.

Failure to work out an extension wouldn’t make a Gallo trade a foregone conclusion, but it would make a deal seem likely. In addition to the Padres, the Yankees and Blue Jays have previously been tied to Gallo, and Grant adds that the Braves have “inquired” about his availability as well.

Gallo’s athletic enough to handle the outfield or first base, broadening his appeal to potential suitors. If a deal involving Hosmer, cash and prospects sent Gallo to San Diego, the two-time All-Star would likely step in as the Friars regular first baseman. Atlanta already has franchise icon Freddie Freeman entrenched at first and is surely looking at Gallo as a potential outfield option.

Latest On Max Scherzer

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As of last night, there were at least eight clubs interested in Nationals ace Max Scherzer, who is open to waiving his no-trade rights but said to have a preference for a West Coast club that has the ability to keep him longer-term.

Scherzer figures to be one of the most talked-about trade candidates in recent memory, but his stay on the market may not go down to the wire like some other stars. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Nationals want to get a framework for a trade in place as quickly as possible, in order to leave enough time to work out the details surrounding Scherzer’s no-trade rights and any compensation he’d require to waive them. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that some involved in negotiations believe an agreement could come together by tonight.

While Scherzer has been connected to more than a quarter of the league, Rosenthal and Morosi both suggest that the three NL West contenders — the Padres, Dodgers and Giants — are the likeliest destinations at this time. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggested something similar yesterday. Both SNY’s Andy Martino and The Athletic’s Jayson Stark, meanwhile, have indicated that Scherzer would not approve a trade to either New York club.

Any of the three NL West contenders make for a sensible landing spot. The Giants hold the best record in Major League Baseball and ought to be motivated to aggressively strengthen their club down the stretch. The Dodgers’ rotation strength has dwindled since the season began, and the Padres are without several key rotation options themselves at the moment.

Of the bunch, only the Giants could acquire Scherzer without incurring any luxury-tax penalization. Scherzer’s deferral-heavy contract comes with an annual luxury hit of just under $30MM, and the prorated remainder of that hit as of this writing would be $10.49MM. (It’d drop to $10.03MM after the deadline.) The Dodgers, already in the top tax bracket for year-one offenders, would pay a 62.5 percent tax on that $10.03MM overage. The Padres are barely over the threshold at the moment and exploring some ambitious ways to drop back below the barrier; at the moment, they’d pay a 20 percent overage penalty.

Scherzer, who turned 37 yesterday, has pitched to a 2.83 ERA with a 35.1 percent strikeout rate (tying a career-high) and a 4.2 percent walk rate in 105 innings this year. He’s playing on a $35MM salary this year in the final season of a seven-year, $210MM contract, though the bulk of that 2021 salary is deferred to 2028. Schezer was scratched from his Saturday start against the Orioles due to a triceps issue, though the Nationals have indicated that an MRI came back clean. He’s listed as the probable starter for Thursday’s game against the Phillies. Of course, that recent health scare only muddies the water as teams try to put together a framework with the Nats.

At Least Eight Teams In The Mix For Max Scherzer

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As many as eight clubs are in the mix for Nationals ace and three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (Twitter link). The Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Astros and Mets are all interested, according to Stark, who adds that the Yankees also inquired but were told Scherzer isn’t likely to waive his no-trade rights for a move to New York. That meshes with recent reporting from SNY’s Andy Martino, who wrote earlier this afternoon that Scherzer wouldn’t approve a trade to the Mets (nor would the Nationals be keen on dealing their ace to the current division leaders).

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier in the day that Scherzer preferred a West Coast club, though MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that the ostensible West Coast preference is more about Scherzer wanting to go to a team with a chance to win in 2021 and beyond. Scherzer prefers to go to “a team he could stay with” on a possible extension, per Heyman. Agent Scott Boras indicated as much earlier in the summer, although at the time Boras suggested an extension might be necessary in order for Scherzer to waive his no-trade protection at all. That no longer seems to be the case, but as evidenced by Scherzer’s unwillingness to go to a New York club, the no-trade rights can help him choose his eventual landing spot.

If the Nats are to ultimately trade Scherzer, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the team’s preference is to do so within the next 48 hours. Doing so would leave ample time to sort through the no-trade obstacles and any potential compensation for waiving those rights (e.g. alterations to deferrals, taxes, etc.).

That said, a trade taking place prior to Thursday’s game would put an acquiring team in a tough spot. Scherzer was scratched from his weekend start due to a triceps issue and is set to return to the mound Thursday. A recent MRI came back clean, and any team acquiring Scherzer would obviously have access to the results from that imaging and other testing. Still, a clean MRI may not inspire as much confidence as seeing Scherzer go out and actually perform. If interested clubs prefer to wait until Scherzer has taken the mound, there’d be fewer than 24 hours between the conclusion of Thursday’s start and Friday afternoon’s deadline.

Any trade involving Scherzer is going to be financially complicated, but looking at Stark’s list of interested parties, there are a few particularly complex scenarios. The Dodgers are already into the final luxury-tax bracket, meaning they’d pay a 62.5 percent overage penalty on any additional money added to the books. For Scherzer, whose remaining luxury hit clocks in at roughly $10.03MM post-deadline and $10.49MM as of this writing, that’d mean paying between $6.27MM and $6.56MM on top of the approximately $12.2MM he’s still owed in actual 2021 salary. (Luxury tax is calculated based on a contract’s average annual value, but Scherzer’s backloaded contract comes with a $35MM salary in 2021 — albeit with much of that sum deferred.)

The Padres are reportedly just above the luxury tax threshold, but are still considering moves that could take them back under that line. A Scherzer acquisition, however, would push them well above the mark. That’s also true of the Astros and the Red Sox, who are both within just a few million of the $210MM threshold. The Rays, of course, have an entirely different sort of financial obstacles to consider (namely, their perennially cellar-level payroll). The Jays and Giants, as teams with deep pockets and no real luxury concerns of which to speak, ostensibly represent the “cleanest” fits of the bunch.

That’s not to say that the Dodgers, Padres, Astros, Rays or Red Sox shouldn’t be considered legitimate contenders for Scherzer. (Although if Scherzer is hoping to stay with the club that acquires him, the low-payroll Rays are an admittedly tough fit.) Most clubs this summer have voiced some iteration of a “we’d exceed the threshold for the ’right’ player” stance. It’s hard to imagine a player who fits that billing more than a bona fide ace and three-time Cy Young winner who has a 2.92 ERA in 49 1/3 postseason innings with the Nats since 2016. But with the Nats theoretically negotiating with a rapidly ticking clock, any complicated financial elements of a deal are magnified.

Latest On Interest In Cubs’ Trade Chips

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12:41PM: The White Sox and Red Sox are two of at least seven teams interested in Kimbrel, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine writes, while the White Sox have also scouted another Cubs reliever in Ryan Tepera.

10:49AM: The Cubs completed another trade last night in sending Andrew Chafin to the Athletics, setting the stage for what should be a very busy week of transactions for Chicago in advance of Friday’s 3pm CT trade deadline.  Many of the biggest names remain, and rumors continue to circulate about where these top names could land.

Closer Craig Kimbrel is drawing much of the buzz, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Padres are among the teams interested in the veteran reliever.  While many of the Cubs’ most notable trade chips are rental players, Kimbrel is controlled through the 2022 season due to a $16MM club option.  He also has around $5.5MM remaining in salary for this season, so he isn’t an entirely inexpensive proposition for a team looking at the right-hander as just a rental.

This is a particular factor for a team like the Padres, who are facing a luxury tax overage for the first time in franchise history.  Team ownership is willing to make that leap beyond the $210MM payroll threshold, though the Padres are naturally exploring ways (such as unloading Eric Hosmer’s contract) to avoid the tax if at all possible.

The Red Sox “have at least had preliminary conversations ” with the Cubs about first baseman Anthony Rizzo, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports, which seems like a natural fit considering how little production the Sox have received from the first base position this season.  Boston is the first team officially linked to Rizzo on the rumor mill, as Passan writes that Rizzo’s market “is not so robust” since he is a veteran position player who is a free agent after the year.

In fact, there has been more speculation about Rizzo possibly staying with the Cubs rather than leaving, even though extension talks in Spring Training failed to produce a new contract.  Recent reports suggested that the Cubs would look to again discuss extensions with both Rizzo and Javier Baez prior to the deadline, but NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer reports that “no extension talks are happening with” either player.

This doesn’t mean that either will be traded, however.  In fact, Wittenmyer hears from sources around baseball that the Cubs will be keeping both Baez and Kyle Hendricks beyond Friday’s deadline.  (MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported last night that the Cubs weren’t looking to move Hendricks and that a trade was unlikely.)  It isn’t quite as firm about whether or not Rizzo could remain or be dealt to Boston or another team, but if the first baseman is kept, Wittenmyer writes that the Cubs will again look into extending both Rizzo and Baez before they reach free agency this winter.

Padres Discussing Eric Hosmer Trades

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TODAY: Hosmer’s contract had a full no-trade clause for the 2018-20 seasons, but he now has only partial protection.  Hosmer has a 10-team no-trade clause, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports, adding another difficulty to the Padres’ attempt to deal him.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the 10 teams on Hosmer’s list are the Athletics, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Giants, Indians, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, and Tigers.  Hosmer also automatically gains full no-trade protection following the 2022 season due to 10-and-5 rights.

JULY 26: Eric Hosmer “has surfaced in recent trade discussions,” according to Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic. The motivation for such discussions seems to be at least partly connected to the Padres’ luxury tax situation, as Rosenthal notes,”The most recent calculation, provided by MLB around the All-Star break, has the Padres over the CBT threshold by roughly $2 million.”  On a related note, the Padres had the Pirates pick up much of the tab for recent acquisition Adam Frazier.

After going 71-91 in the 2017 season, the Padres signed Hosmer to a huge eight-year, $144MM deal, sending a signal they were ready to compete. Since that time, the Padres have only gotten more aggressive, handing out even bigger contracts to Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., along with a number of high profile trades for marquee names such as Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. This has succeeded at pushing the Friars into contention. They got as far as the NLCS in 2020 and currently hold down a wild card spot in 2021. Hosmer’s contribution to the club, however, has been mercurial. In 2018 and 2019, his wRC+ tallies were 95 and 91, producing negative fWAR numbers in the process. The shortened 2020 season seemed to be a bounceback, with a wRC+ of 127 and an fWAR of 0.9. But 2021 has seen him trail off again, with his wRC+ down to 96 and his fWAR in negative territory again.  Hosmer’s contract still has four years remaining on it after 2021.

It’s unclear what the next collective bargaining agreement will look like, but the current one has a base tax threshold of $210MM for 2021.  As a potential first-time payor, the 20% tax on the overage seems like it should be a very mild deterrent.  For example, a team spending $225MM would incur a $3MM penalty.  So going over the base tax threshold in 2021 shouldn’t necessarily be a big concern, especially if the thresholds go up significantly in the next CBA.  One reason to attempt to avoid becoming a tax payor, at least in the current CBA: a CBT payor signing a free agent who turned down a qualifying offer forfeits its second and fifth-highest available draft picks and has its international bonus pool reduced by $1MM – as opposed to losing their second-highest pick and $500K of the international pool if they’re not a payor.  In other words, if the Padres exceed $210MM this year and the current draft pick compensation rules remain in place, then the club will face a slightly worse penalty if they sign a major free agent who turned down a qualifying offer.

Although Rosenthal adds that the team could conceivably increase their CBT figure “for the right acquisition,” they seem to also be considering the alternate route of ducking back beneath the line by season’s end. Moving Hosmer’s deal, with its $18MM AAV, would get the team below the line and potentially leave room for further additions. Since the team seemingly needs to pick a side and commit to it, “it could help explain why Preller continues to discuss a seemingly endless array of scenarios — including potential trades involving Hosmer,” according to Rosenthal.

There’s no indication that any deal is imminent, nor are any trading partners mentioned. But the appeal of acquiring Hosmer wouldn’t be so much about Hosmer himself. “The Padres likely would have to attach significant prospect value” to trade Hosmer, says Rosenthal. So, any team acquiring Hosmer would need to have enough payroll space to pay him, but with an eye towards the future production the prospects would provide. Speculatively speaking, the Cubs could be a fit. They’ve seemingly already started a sell-off, trading Joc Pederson to Atlanta earlier this month. First baseman and impending free agent Anthony Rizzo seems destined to be traded, unless the team can work out an extension. Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are also coming off the books at year’s end, or even sooner, creating more payroll space.

A return to the Royals is another intriguing possibility. They’ve been in rebuild mode since Hosmer left but tried to re-emerge as contenders with some aggressive moves in the most recent offseason. But that hasn’t gone as planned, as they are currently 42-55 and definite sellers as Friday’s 4pm trade deadline approaches. Acquiring Hosmer and some prospects could be a way to improve for future seasons while re-acquiring a fan favorite who was part of a World Series winner to help open the next competitive window.  The Orioles and Tigers could also consider taking on Hosmer’s contract as a way of bolstering their prospect inventory.

Latest On Jose Berrios

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The Twins are discussing Jose Berrios with multiple teams including the Padres and Dodgers, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Mets are not one of those other clubs at this time.

Berrios, 27, figures to be wildly popular on the trade market since he’s under team control for 2022 as an arbitration eligible player.  He ranks ninth in MLB with 121 2/3 innings, sporting a 3.48 ERA, 25.7 K%, and 6.5 BB%.  Berrios appears to have little interest in giving the Twins a discount on an extension, so naturally the team is listening to potential trade offers.  Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote this month, “Early indications are the Twins asked another team that inquired about Berríos for a pre-arb player and two top-100 prospects.”  Speaking of top 100 prospects, Baseball America just updated their list.

In an earlier tweet, Morosi suggested the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Phillies “are active in the starting pitching market now.”  But it’s difficult to name any contender that couldn’t push aside their worst starting pitcher for Berrios.

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