This Date In Transactions History: The James Shields Signing
We’ve reached the five-year anniversary of a free-agent signing whose effects are still being felt today. It was on Feb. 11, 2015, that the Padres signed longtime workhorse James Shields to a four-year, $75MM guarantee. They beat out at least three other teams to sign Shields, a California native whose homecoming didn’t work out as planned for him or the Padres.
The right-handed Shields was one of several household names the Padres acquired that offseason in hopes of snapping what was then an eight-year playoff drought. Along with adding Shields, general manager A.J. Preller nabbed the Upton brothers (Justin and Melvin), two other high-profile hitters in Matt Kemp and Wil Myers and closer Craig Kimbrel. Despite all those moves, though, the Padres didn’t end their playoff skid that year, nor have they made the postseason since. What’s more, only Myers is still a member of the organization, and he’s now the owner of a contract the Padres would love to clear from their books.
Shields, then 33 years old, joined the Padres off stellar runs with the Rays and Royals. The man known as “Big Game James” and “Complete Game James” debuted in 2006 and threw at least 200 innings in each season from 2007-14. He was at his best in the four seasons preceding his deal with the Padres, as he fired a league-leading 932 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA/3.49 FIP ball with 7.95 K/9, 2.27 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent groundball rate.
While Shields remained a fairly effective innings-eater in his first season as a Padre, he didn’t offer the type of front-line production he had in prior years. Shields wound up tossing 202 1/3 frames of 3.91 ERA/4.45 FIP ball, posted 9.61 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9, and recorded a 44.9 percent grounder rate in 2015. That went down as his lone full season as a member of the Padres. After Shields got off to an underwhelming start the next year, the Padres traded him and $31MM of the $58MM left on his contract to the White Sox in June 2016. Like the Padres before them, the White Sox were mistakenly under the impression Shields would help them push for a playoff spot. And like the Padres now, they’re still in the midst of a long postseason drought. Meanwhile, Shields hasn’t pitched since 2018 – the last of three rough seasons in Chicago.
While the Shields-Padres union didn’t work out as planned, it’s one that could benefit them for many years. After all, had they not signed Shields, they may not have been able to pull off one of the biggest heists in recent history. The Padres acquired two players – righty Erik Johnson and then-infield prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. – in exchange for Shields. Johnson didn’t amount to anything in a Padres uniform, and he hasn’t pitched professionally since 2018. But the Padres struck gold on Tatis, who was just 17 when they got him and wasn’t regarded as a premium prospect. Tatis eventually soared up prospect rankings, though, and looked like a can’t-miss talent by the time he made his major league debut last season. He delivered in a big way as a 21-year-old, though injuries limited him to 84 games and 372 plate appearances, as he slashed a tremendous .317/.379/.590 with 22 home runs, 16 stolen bases and 3.6 fWAR.
It’s safe to say Tatis is now one of the foremost young building blocks in the sport. Had it not been for a free-agent signing that went awry, he might not even be a Padre right now.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Padres To Sign Juan Lagares
The Padres have agreed to a deal with outfielder Juan Lagares, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It’s a minor-league pact that’ll pay out at $1.4MM if Lagares can crack the big league roster. There are also $1.1MM in available incentives and a March 19th opt-out date, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
Lagares could step into the shoes of just-traded center fielder Manuel Margot. First, Lagares will have to show that he’s primed to bounce back from a rough 2019 season.
At his best, Lagares gave the Mets high-end defensive work and approximately league-average hitting — quite a nice combination for an up-the-middle performer. But that was way back in 2014, when Lagares logged a Gold Glove and set the table for a spring 2015 extension.
Things just haven’t gone as well since. Lagares has dealt with some health problems and back-slid at the plate. UZR and DRS both soured on his glovework in 2019, though Statcast provided plenty of evidence that Lagares still has plenty of skill with the glove on his hand.
It seems the Friars will have a rather wide-open camp battle. Lagares and Wil Myers are each right-handed-hitting candidates to see time in center. Word is that lefty swinging Franchy Cordero could shift to the prime defensive spot; the recently acquired Trent Grisham is also an option there. Tommy Pham is sure to see a lot of action in the corner, with all of the above-listed players and a few others (in particular, Josh Naylor and Abraham Almonte) also potentially competing.
Padres, Gordon Beckham Agree To Minor League Deal
The Padres and veteran infielder Gordon Beckham are in agreement on a minor league contract, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). He’ll be in big league camp with the Friars this spring. Beckham is represented by CAA.
The 33-year-old Beckham spent last season in the Tigers organization, appearing in 83 games and logging 240 trips to the plate — both his highest totals since the 2016 season. The former No. 8 overall pick (White Sox, 2008) managed just a .215/.271/.372 slash, though he chipped in six homers, 13 doubles and a pair of triples. Beckham appeared at all four infield spots with Detroit in 2019.
Although he’s never produced much in the Majors (career .237/.300/.367), Beckham does carry a lifetime .293/.364/.436 slash in Triple-A. He’s a reasonably versatile piece that the Padres can move all around the infield in Triple-A El Paso if he doesn’t make the big league roster out of camp.
AL East Notes: Morton, Betts, Margot, Blue Jays, Wood, Sanchez
Former Astros righty Charlie Morton became the latest player to address Houston’s electronic sign-stealing scandal, telling MLB.com’s Juan Toribio and other reporters that “personally, I regret not doing more to stop it” during his time with the club in 2017, while also admitting that he wasn’t certain what steps he could have taken to directly halt the sign-stealing system. Morton has already spoken to some Rays teammates about the situation, and added that he didn’t believe the Astros were still doing anything illicit last October, when Houston defeated Tampa Bay in the ALDS.
2017 was a particularly unique year for Morton, as he wasn’t just a big part of a World Series-winning team, but his entire career was revived while pitching for the Astros, turning him from a borderline journeyman to his current top-of-the-rotation status in Tampa. Despite his own fond memories, however, Morton knows and accepts that the Astros’ achievements have been overshadowed by the scandal. “Certainly the public perception of that win has changed, and my peers, too….There are moments during the World Series that will always be special to me, that won’t be ‘tainted.’ But certainly that’s justified, that’s a justified perception to have, and what people have expressed,” Morton said.
More from around the AL East…
- Between all of the uncertainty surrounding the Mookie Betts trade and yesterday’s Padres/Rays trade that sent Manuel Margot to Tampa Bay, there has been some speculation that the Padres could be clearing center field for a late strike at acquiring Betts. However, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) suggests the opposite, noting that since Margot was reportedly part of the Betts negotiations between the Red Sox and Padres, sending Margot to the Rays indicates that San Diego decided to go in another direction.
- The Blue Jays went into the offseason prepared to aggressively search for pitching, only to have to ramp up their approach when the free agent market moved much quicker than anticipated, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes in a wide-ranging overview of Toronto’s winter moves. Davidi’s piece provides a breakdown of how the Jays pursued their targets, ranging from big names (i.e. Gerrit Cole, Yasmani Grandal) on both the rotation and position player fronts, as well as looking for value by checking in with seemingly just about every pitcher available. The Winter Meetings seemed to be a key pivot point, as one player agent told Davidi that the Jays began to take a “totally different” approach in negotiations: “It’s like they realized what they’d been doing wasn’t working and decided to change things up.” In essence, the Toronto front office reversed its strategy, abandoning the plan of acquiring an ace-level arm first and then adding more pitchers to a new tactic of signing mid-rotation hurlers (i.e. Tanner Roark, Shun Yamaguchi) before finally landing a big fish in Hyun-Jin Ryu.
- Adding to the long list of pitchers known to have garnered interest from the Blue Jays, Davidi reports that Toronto was also “in the mix for” both Alex Wood and Angel Sanchez. Wood ended up signing with the Dodgers, one of his former teams, in mid-January on a one-year contract worth $4MM in guaranteed money (and another $6MM in incentives). Sanchez bounced around multiple farm systems from 2011-17 with a Major League resume that included only 12 1/3 innings for the 2017 Pirates before finding success pitching in Korea over the last two seasons. While Sanchez received some looks from the Jays and other MLB teams, he ended up heading from South Korea to Japan, signing a multi-year deal with the NPB’s Yomiuri Giants.
Padres Acquire Emilio Pagan From Rays For Manuel Margot And Prospect Logan Driscoll
The San Diego Padres have acquired reliever Emilio Pagan from the Tampa Bay Rays. In exchange, they’re sending centerfielder Manuel Margot and prospect Logan Driscoll to Tampa Bay, per The Athletic’s Josh Tolentino (via Twitter). The deal is official, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio.
Both teams add strength to strength here. The Rays get an elite defensive centerfielder to back up one one of the league’s best in that department, while the Padres give their already-strong bullpen another weapon to lock down the ends of ballgames. Both teams, interestingly, are addressing an area with this trade to which they’ve already devoted resources this winter.
Turning to the players, Pagan departs one strong bullpen to join another in San Diego, where he’ll team up with incumbent closer Kirby Yates and 21-year-old flamethrower Andres Munoz. The Padres will be his fourth team in as many seasons after year-long stints with the Mariners, A’s, and Rays. Last season was his most successful to date, however, as he notched a 12.3 K/9 versus 1.7 BB/9 in his 70 innings as a Ray. San Diego seems to value his ability to retire both right and left-handed hitters, citing Pagan’s matching .179 BAA in their press release.
The Friars have dedicated quite a bit of resources to a bullpen that now looks like a genuine asset. They earlier re-signed Craig Stammen to a two-year, $9MM deal and convinced Drew Pomeranz to give San Diego a second go-round with a surprising four-year, $34MM commitment. The Padres also brought in former San Francisco Giant Pierce Johnson after a successful stint overseas.
Pagan’s one season in Tampa Bay came after being acquired from Oakland in the three-way deal that landed Jurickson Profar in Oakland and sent Brock Burke, Yoel Espinal, Kyle Bird, Eli White, and international draft pool money to the Rangers. The Rays also received a draft pick in that deal. Pagan served as the Rays de facto closer last season, notching 20 saves in 66 games with a 2.31 ERA/3.30 FIP.
For their part, Tampa adds an elite defensive centerfielder in Margot who may yet have another offensive gear in him as he nears his age-25 season. Margot hit an underwhelming .234/.304/.387 last year, in line with his career mark of .248/.301/.394 – but by just about any measure, Margot ranks among the game’s very best at traversing the centerfield grass. Last season, he scored 6 DRS, 5.8 UZR, and 11 Outs Above Average. Margot provides the Rays with defensive certainty up the middle should Kevin Kiermaier again struggle to stay healthy.
The Rays have made of a winter of adding outfielders by way of relatively surprising multi-player deals. Margot joins Hunter Renfroe as San Diego expats now based in Tampa. The Rays also dealt top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis for Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena, who now figures to start the year in Triple-A. Austin Meadows, of course, remains on hand as an everyday player in the outfield.
For the Rays in particular, the move represents another somewhat disorienting instance of doubling down on a particular area. Their earlier trade for Martinez, who figures to spend much of his time at designated hitter, came shortly after the signing of Yoshi Tsutsugo, another prospective candidate to spend time at designated hitter.
Here again, the addition of Margot could be seen as an over-saturation of Tampa’s centerfield pool, where they’ve already added Arozarena. The Rays have reportedly been after Margot for some time, however, and though Kiermaier remains the unequivocal starter in center, they view Margot as an “impact defender,” per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
Driscoll was the 73rd overall pick of the Padres in the 2019 draft. His ability to play both catcher and outfield certainly marks him as a prospect of some intrigue. In 39 games at Low-A in 2019, Driscoll hit .268/.340/.458.
Details On Padres’ Pursuit Of Mookie Betts
The Padres missed out on their bid to acquire Mookie Betts, but that doesn’t make them the loser of the negotiations. It was always tough to imagine a deal for such a high-end rental player that would truly make sense for the San Diego organization. And the latest reporting seems to bear that out.
Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription link) each covered the aftermath of the Betts deal from the Friars’ perspective. Each noted the impact of the Padres’ limited budgetary flexibility and the organization’s realistic assessment of its 2020 outlook. The picture that emerges is one of an organization that was ready to make a deal on certain terms but not to extend any further.
One Padres source that spoke with Acee seems to have summed things up nicely — not only capturing the team’s approach but also the reason a Betts strike felt strained. “We were not going to trade on our future,” said the unnamed employee. “We’re in for the (long haul), not one year.”
Betts was not only a rental, but one that was exceedingly unlikely to remain in San Diego for the long haul. Not only has he made clear he wishes to test the open market, but the Friars are in no position to take on a mega-contract with Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer on the books. Per Lin, the San Diego organization launched its effort to structure a deal “more than a month ago,” so it was obviously a serious and long-running bid. At worst, the team’s pursuit forced the powerhouse Dodgers to pay a bit more. But it was always going to be tough to find a package that suited the Red Sox and made sense for the Pads.
So, will the Padres front office now pivot to alternatives? Perhaps, but not necessarily in the coming weeks. Lin writes that “the expectation is that the Padres will begin the season with what they have.” While he says the team has asked about Kris Bryant, in addition to Indians stars Francisco Lindor and Mike Clevinger, it doesn’t seem there’s any active blockbuster structuring in the works.
We can still probably expect plenty of eyebrow-raising trade rumors involving the Padres, the nature of which will surely depend upon how the coming season unfolds. Both Acee and Lin say that a wide variety of players were discussed in the trade talks surrounding Betts, indicating that the Pads remain willing to entertain a range of scenarios.
Red Sox, Dodgers In “Advanced” Talks On Mookie Betts
8:05pm: A third team could be involved in talks, tweets Rosenthal, though the basic framework of the deal being discussed still includes Price and Betts going to L.A. and Verdugo going to Boston.
8:03pm: The current proposal would send both Betts and Price to Los Angeles, tweets Speier. The two sides are reviewing medicals on all of the potentially involved players. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that young outfielder Alex Verdugo would be the centerpiece going to Boston, as has been previously rumored.
7:58pm: Trade talks centering around Red Sox star right fielder Mookie Betts have once again heated up, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network, who calls the Dodgers the favorite to land him. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier adds that Boston and Los Angeles are in “advanced” talks and that it’s possible a deal will come together tonight. The Padres aren’t completely out of the mix just yet, per Heyman.
The Betts trade saga has dominated headlines for the past week, with the Red Sox soliciting offers on the 2018 AL MVP from both the Dodgers and Padres. Both teams have obvious motivations to add Betts to the fold, but the Dodgers are already a clear postseason contender with deeper pockets and a generally strong mix of MLB-ready talent and high-end prospects. Previous reports have indicated that the Red Sox are hoping to attach part of David Price‘s contract in a deal with the Dodgers, though it’s not clear whether the current permutations of talks include the former Cy Young winner, who is owed $96MM over the next three years.
Betts, 27, agreed to a record-setting $27MM salary in his final trip through the arbitration process earlier this winter. He’s been outspoken and candid about his desire to test free agency rather than sign an extension, so he has to be viewed purely as a one-year rental for any club that acquires him. By trading him, the Red Sox would drop their projected luxury tax commitments to about $212MM — just $4MM over the $208MM threshold. If they’re successfully able to unload a portion of Price’s deal, new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will have successfully dipped below the luxury tax line. That’s been a clear goal for Boston ownership all winter, despite chairman John Henry’s dubious claims that the team is more focused on competitiveness than on resetting their luxury penalty level.
Red Sox Still Pondering Mookie Betts Trade Scenarios
The waiting game continues, despite expectations to the contrary. As of this morning, with just one week until pitchers and catchers report, Mookie Betts remains a member of the Red Sox.
All day yesterday it seemed a trade could drop at any moment. Reports the evening prior had indicated as much. Padres beat writer Kevin Acee tweeted midday that “multiple people close to situation believe resolution on Mookie Betts trade is imminent.”
It seems the Friars expected to find out whether they or the division-overlord Dodgers would land a new superstar. They’re still waiting right along with the rest of us.
The Red Sox are still engaged with both west coast organizations, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. And the Boston club is still not even settled on particular trade scenarios with each prospective trade partner. Speier says that concepts both including and excluding high-priced lefty David Price remain on the table.
So, is today the day? Perhaps. But new Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems determined to take his time making his first major call. While it has appeared that talks were building to a crescendo, Speier explains that the club still isn’t feeling timing or logistical pressure.
Presumably, there’s a point in the near future at which the constraints of the calendar will force a move (or lack thereof). The Padres and Dodgers need to make alternative plans if they can’t nab Betts. And the Boston club no doubt prefers not to open camp with such massive uncertainty hanging over the organization. Even if it can’t be said that a resolution is now truly imminent, it seems quite likely to come within the week.
Poll: Where Will Mookie Betts Play In 2020?
The trade rumblings surrounding Mookie Betts are presumably nearing their peak. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported last night that resolution on trade talks regarding him could come within the next few days. Ken Rosenthal offered a similar sentiment on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show this morning (Twitter link, with video), plainly stating that a Betts trade “is going to happen.”
At this point, the race to acquire Betts is widely reported to be between a pair of NL West rivals: the Dodgers and the Padres. The former, of course, is a perennial division champ hoping that Betts could be the piece to finally push them across the finish line in the World Series after two near-misses in three years. The latter would simply hope Betts could propel them into postseason play at all. San Diego has yet to experience a playoff game under general manager A.J. Preller, who was hired more than five years ago.
As with most high-profile trade scenarios, there are multiple layers to consider. Both the Padres and Dodgers have excellent farm systems and controllable, MLB-ready talent to pitch to new Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff. Betts would push the Padres into franchise-record payroll territory but wouldn’t bring them to the luxury tax threshold. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have spent far more than this before but would be in luxury territory with Betts on board.
The financial components don’t stop there. San Diego has reportedly sought to unload part of Wil Myers‘ contract (three years, $61MM remaining) on the Red Sox in their talks. Boston has been trying to push some of David Price‘s remaining deal (three years, $96MM) on both clubs; USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets this morning that the Dodgers are still trying to get the Sox to take on a larger portion of Price’s contract.
The emergence of an unexpected suitor — who doesn’t love a good mystery team?! — would make things more interesting and remains possible as long as Betts is still under Red Sox control.
It’s only been 10 days since MLBTR readers weighed in on whether a Betts trade would happen at all, with nearly 69 percent of participants voting that the 2018 AL MVP would open the 2020 season in Boston. Just over a week later, there’s a decidedly different feel around the Betts situation, so let’s open this up one final time (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…
Who will Mookie Betts be playing for on Opening Day 2020?
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He'll be a Dodger. 56% (17,854)
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The Red Sox won't trade him. 18% (5,749)
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He'll be a Padre. 15% (4,912)
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Never bet against the mystery team! 11% (3,627)
Total votes: 32,142
Mookie Betts Trade Talks Could Be Nearing Resolution
The Mookie Betts saga hasn’t yet reached a resolution. That could change shortly. The Red Sox may make a decision on Betts “within the next few days,” reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Boston has continued to discuss “multiple” trade scenarios with both the Dodgers and Padres. Those talks have now reached “a relatively advanced stage,” Speier reports. Earlier this week, Speier categorized the Betts sweepstakes as “a two-team race” between Los Angeles and San Diego. There’s no indication anyone beyond the two NL West rivals is still involved.
That’s not to say a Betts trade imminently coming to fruition is a guarantee. The Red Sox haven’t asked either L.A. or San Diego for “a last and best offer,” a source from one of the rival clubs told Speier. That suggests there remains some possibility of talks fizzling out or going in an unexpected direction; at the very least, it doesn’t seem Boston plans to set a firm deadline on a Betts trade, at least not immediately.
Reading between the lines, though, it feels like a Betts trade is now more likely than ever. Speier reported earlier in the week it was “likelier than not” the superstar would wind up on the move, and today’s news only strengthens that notion. If a deal does get across the finish line, what could the Red Sox expect in return for the former AL MVP?
Any deal with the Padres would need to include Wil Myers to help offset payroll, Speier reiterates. (Betts will make $27MM in 2020 in the final season before he reaches free agency). As Speier observes, San Diego’s package of young talent would therefore have to top that of the Dodgers to compensate for the inclusion of some of Myers’ contract. The 29-year-old is due $61MM over the next three seasons. Coming off a season in which he hit just .239/.321/.418, Myers certainly wouldn’t approach that figure if he were on the open market now. San Diego would pay down some of Myers’ deal in the event of a trade, Speier notes; even still, the Red Sox would surely demand more valuable young talent with Myers included than they otherwise would have.
Among that young talent would figure to be an MLB-ready outfielder and starting pitcher, as well as some prospect help. San Diego has shown a willingness to discuss outfielders Manuel Margot (a former Red Sox prospect) and Josh Naylor, Speier reports, although any outfielders except Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham could be on the table. Starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Joey Lucchesi continue to garner some consideration, while any prospect package would likely be led by catcher Luis Campusano (Baseball America’s #79 overall prospect), Speier adds. Not all five players would be involved in a Betts trade, of course, and there are no doubt others who have come up in talks. The names under discussion give some early indication of what to expect if a Betts deal involving San Diego is completed, though.
From the Dodgers’ perspective, meanwhile, Alex Verdugo could be on the table, Speier reports. The 23-year-old former top prospect hit .294/.342/.475 (114 wRC+) in 377 plate appearances last season and comes with five years of team control, making him an eminently valuable trade piece. Other scenarios with the Dodgers still seem to be up in the air; the parties continue to discuss a package deal involving David Price and his three-year, $96MM contract, Speier notes, as well as deals that would send Betts alone to L.A.
Notably, the Athletic’s Peter Gammons noted this afternoon (via Twitter) that the Dodgers appear to be the frontrunner, with three sources characterizing Betts to L.A. as “inevitable.” Verdugo could indeed be on the table in such a scenario, Gammons hears; he further adds middle infield prospect Jeter Downs and pitcher Caleb Ferguson as names to monitor.
With spring training approaching, one of this offseason’s greatest dramas appears to be nearing its conclusion. Wherever Betts plays next season, he figures to again offer outstanding production. The 27-year-old has a .299/.389/.535 slash (140 wRC+) since the start of 2017. With elite baserunning and defense factored in, only Mike Trout has bested Mookie’s 22.4 fWAR over that time.