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Padres Rumors

Padres, Mariners In Talks On Significant Potential Trade

By Jeff Todd | November 20, 2018 at 4:46pm CDT

4:57pm: A deal is “not thought to be close” right now, Rosenthal adds on Twitter, though the fact that players have been asked about their no-trade clauses still seems to indicate it’s a serious possibility.

Interestingly, the Mariners have also approached Leake with other possible destinations, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. Whether alternative deals are lined up with other organizations is not known.

4:46pm: The Padres and Mariners have been talking about a fascinating potential trade scenario involving some large contracts, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). There’s no indication at this point of the likelihood of a deal being consummated, but it seems the sides may at least in part be waiting on word of whether a player involved would waive his no-trade rights.

Per Rosenthal, the possible deal is built around three major league players. Whether there’s more involved isn’t apparent, but at base, the M’s would receive slugger Wil Myers while sending shortstop Jean Segura and righty Mike Leake to San Diego. Notably, though, Leake has a no-trade clause and is said to be considering his options. Segura does as well, though there’s no indication about his status.

It’s never easy to tell whether a potential deal might move across the line. In this case, though, it’s quite notable that the players have evidently been contacted. That surely would not happen if the teams were not serious.

Needless to say, the money is a notable factor in this scenario. Myers is owed a total of $64MM over the next four seasons, which includes a buyout on a 2023 option. Segura is set to earn $57MM on a contract built on the same timeline (four remaining years plus an option). Leake, meanwhile, is still due another $36MM for the next two seasons, including a buyout on a mutual option, though the Cardinals are paying $9MM of that amount.

Without any further tweaking, then, a straight swap would see the Padres take on approximately $20MM. They’d also be moving on from a player who really does not seem to fit the roster while adding a quality shortstop — a position of need — and an innings-eating starter. It seems like a nice opportunity for the Friars, though of course it’s still also possible that they’d be chipping in some other assets.

For the Seattle club, this would be yet another move designed to reposition the roster. Shedding some salary obligations would certainly be welcome, and it’s possible the M’s are believers in Myers as a hitter. He’d make good sense in the first base/corner outfield/DH mix. There have also been some questions about Segura’s fit in Seattle after clubhouse dust-up last season.

One broad takeaway here, from the Padres’ vantage point, is that the team is very clearly taking an aggressive approach at trying to retool its 40-man roster. Beyond large-scale moves like the one being discussed with the Mariners, San Diego has also been shopping right-hander Rowan Wick in advance of tonight’s Rule 5 protection deadline, per Rosenthal (Twitter link).

Meanwhile, Rosenthal and colleague Dennis Lin suggest that the Friars could sell the rights to third baseman Christian Villanueva to an interested, but unspecified team in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (Twitter link). That’d only further the team’s need for a third baseman, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that that’s an area of acute importance to the San Diego front office. As for Villanueva, he’d surely stand to earn more in Japan than he’d make as a pre-arbitration player in 2019.

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San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners Christian Villanueva Jean Segura Mike Leake Rowan Wick Wil Myers

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Red Sox Acquire Colten Brewer

By Steve Adams | November 20, 2018 at 3:28pm CDT

3:46pm: Boston has announced the deal.

3:27pm: The agreement is now in place, Rosenthal adds on Twitter.

12:55pm: Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports (via Twitter) that the Red Sox will send minor league infielder Esteban Quiroz to San Diego in exchange for Brewer.

Quiroz, 27 in February, has spent the bulk of his career playing for los Tigres de Quintana Roo in the Mexican League but signed with the Red Sox in 2017 for his first season of affiliated ball. He hit .299/.413/.598 with seven homers in 104 plate appearances against younger competition in Double-A last year. He also made a strong impression in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .267/.452/.511 with a pair of homers, three doubles and a triple in 62 PAs. He’s played second base, shortstop and third base extensively in his career in Mexico, but the Red Sox deployed him solely as a second baseman.

12:29pm: The Red Sox are nearing an agreement to acquire right-hander Colten Brewer from the Padres, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. A minor leaguer who doesn’t need to be added to the Padres’ 40-man roster to be protected before today’s Rule 5 deadline will go back in return.

It’s a minor swap designed to give the Padres some roster flexibility before 8pm ET tonight — the deadline for teams to protect players from selection in next month’s Rule 5 Draft. Brewer, a fourth-round pick of the Pirates in 2011, has just 9 2/3 innings of big league experience, all of which came with the Padres in 2018. He was tagged for six earned runs on 15 hits and seven walks with 10 strikeouts in that time, but he was much better in Triple-A El Paso. Despite the hitter-friendly nature of his home environment in Triple-A, Brewer posted a 3.75 ERA with more impressive marks of 11.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 with a 55.8 percent grounder rate in 48 innings of relief.

Brewer only recently turned 26 and has two minor league option years remaining, so he’ll give the Red Sox some bullpen depth that can be shuttled back and forth between Boston and Pawtucket next season. For the Padres, the swap will open a spot on what’s currently a full 40-man roster. It’s one of multiple trades they could make today, as Rosenthal also noted that right-hander Rowan Wick could be on the move soon (in a separate deal).

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Boston Red Sox San Diego Padres Transactions Colten Brewer Rowan Wick

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Nathan Eovaldi Drawing Widespread Interest

By Connor Byrne | November 18, 2018 at 4:38pm CDT

4:36pm: Eovaldi has received interest from “everybody and their mother,” a source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. However, “truly serious suitors” won’t begin to stand out until after Thanksgiving, Bradford hears. The Yankees are among those who will at least consider Eovaldi, per Bradford.

8:59am: Free-agent starter Nathan Eovaldi has drawn considerable interest on the open market, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who writes that the Brewers, Phillies, Braves, Angels, White Sox, Blue Jays and Giants join the previously reported Red Sox and Padres as early suitors for the right-hander. More teams may join the fray, Cafardo adds.

Although Eovaldi is a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who only threw 111 regular-season innings in 2018, the soon-to-be 29-year-old still managed to significantly boost his stock. Across 22 appearances (21 starts) divided between Tampa Bay and Boston, Eovaldi pitched to a solid 3.81 ERA/3.60 FIP with 8.19 K/9, 1.62 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent groundball rate. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Eovaldi finished third in both average fastball velocity (97.4 mph) and infield fly percentage (15.7), tied for sixth in BB/9, and 12th in K/BB ratio (5.05). He also yielded a paltry .284 expected weighted on-base average, an even more impressive figure than the .293 real wOBA hitters registered against him.

After posting those strong numbers during the regular season, Eovaldi proved capable of shining on the game’s biggest stage for the Red Sox, who couldn’t have asked for more when they acquired him in July. Eovaldi surrendered just four earned runs in 22 1/3 postseason innings, helping the Red Sox vanquish the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers en route to a World Series title. The success Eovaldi enjoyed in October surely helped his stock heading toward the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll land a four-year, $60MM guarantee.

A lucrative payday for Eovaldi this offseason may have been unthinkable at this time last year, when he was still recovering from the 2016 Tommy John surgery he underwent as a Yankee. However, Eovaldi now has a clean bill of health. Dr. Christopher Ahmad, who performed Eovaldi’s most recent surgery, gave his right arm a ringing endorsement Friday, telling Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston: “To me, he’s over Tommy John surgery and he’s over revision Tommy John surgery. And I would consider him in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm, and whatever worry I have about that player, I have the same or less for Nate.”

Adding to Eovaldi’s appeal, he doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached, which isn’t the case with either Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel – the only starters MLBTR projects to sign bigger contracts. Of course, Eovaldi’s resume isn’t on the level of theirs. While Corbin and Keuchel have offered superstar-caliber production at times, Eovaldi has generally performed like a mid- to back-end starter. Also a former Dodger and Marlin, Eovaldi owns a 4.16 ERA/3.82 FIP with 6.78 K/9, 2.74 BB/9 and a 46.8 percent grounder rate over 850 innings, and he hasn’t exceeded 125 frames in a season since 2015. There are certainly some red flags with Eovaldi, then, yet it’s still unsurprising that teams are lining up for his services.

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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Angels Milwaukee Brewers New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays Nathan Eovaldi

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Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

By Jason Martinez | November 16, 2018 at 8:48pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Padres’ were in full rebuild mode by mid-2016, having dealt away any veteran players with value by that year’s trade deadline. Immediate help was not on the way. In fact, it was nowhere close if it even existed. General manager A.J. Preller was going to have his opportunity to build his team from the ground up. Two-and-a-half years later, the Padres have, arguably, the best farm system in baseball and are looking to become legitimate playoff contenders in the next year or two.

Preller is now tasked with putting together a Major League roster that can at least break .500 in 2019 while staying in contention past July 31st. That would be a major step forward for a franchise that has not had a winning season since 2010. The 2018 Philadelphia Phillies, who improved by 14 games from the previous season and didn’t fall out of the pennant race until mid-September, would be a good comparison for what success would look like at the minimum. Matching what the Atlanta Braves did—an 18-game improvement and division championship—would be quite a bit more challenging and represents something like the best-case scenario. Preller’s offseason, which should be very eventful, will have a major effect on whether the team can become a perennial playoff contender and how quickly they can get there.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Eric Hosmer, 1B: $119MM through 2025 (can opt out after 2022)
  • Wil Myers, INF/OF: $64MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $20MM club option for 2023)
  • Clayton Richard, LHP: $3MM through 2019
  • Craig Stammen, RHP: $2.25MM through 2019
  • Kazuhisa Makita, RHP: $1.9MM through 2019

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salary via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Kirby Yates (4.021) – $3.0MM
  • Cory Spangenberg (4.004) – $2.3MM
  • Austin Hedges (2.166) – $1.8MM
  • Travis Jankowski (2.169) – $1.4MM
  • Bryan Mitchell (3.049) – $1.2MM
  • Robbie Erlin (4.078) – $1.1MM
  • Greg Garcia (3.083) – $900K
  • Non-tender candidates: Spangenberg, Mitchell, Garcia

Free Agents

  • A.J. Ellis, Freddy Galvis

[San Diego Padres depth chart | San Diego Padres payroll outlook]

With the waves of young and inexpensive talent expected to arrive in San Diego over the next few seasons, the Padres should have the ability to add multiple impact players with high price tags in preparation for their next playoff run. Eric Hosmer, signed last offseason, was the first significant piece. Adding a frontline starting pitcher and either a third baseman or shortstop prior to the 2020 season would appear to be the next big priorities. It’s possible that they will check one or both off of the list as early as the current offseason.

Preller’s first line of business, however, could be to determine how to best sort out the crowded outfield situation. With only Wil Myers guaranteed a spot on the 25-man roster — barring a trade, at least — and everyone else having Minor League options, it doesn’t have to be that complicated. But, assuming that Myers’ third base experiment is over, the Padres have six outfielders and not one of them belongs in Triple-A.

It could take some creativity on Preller’s part, but Myers is certainly a trade candidate. Although he’s due to make just $3MM in 2019, he’ll make $20MM annually over the next three seasons. That normally wouldn’t be a lot for a former Rookie of the Year who averaged 29 homers and 24 stolen bases in his ages 25-26 seasons, can play multiple positions and is still only 27 years old. But he’s been injury-plagued throughout his career and his overall numbers have been underwhelming for a player who fits best at a corner outfield spot.

Hunter Renfroe (.805 OPS, 15.5 AB/HR) and Franmil Reyes (.838 OPS, 16.3 AB/HR) were each particularly impressive in 2018, making them attractive trade targets for a team hoping to add some legitimate right-handed power to their lineup. Travis Jankowski could be a useful reserve and should draw some interest. Manuel Margot and Franchy Cordero, on the other hand, are much less likely to be traded. Margot’s value is down after he struggled in 2018 and he’s too talented for the Padres to sell low on him. The left-handed hitting Cordero missed most of last season due to an elbow injury, keeping him somewhat of an unknown commodity. But, in any case, the Padres will want to hold on to a 24-year-old with 30 home run and 30 stolen base potential.

Hosmer was a disappointment in his first season with the club, but maybe it shouldn’t have been all that unexpected. After a solid rookie season in 2011, he had his worst season as a pro in 2012. He bounced back in 2013 before struggling again in 2014. He had a very good 2015 season, which ended with a World Series championship. His numbers dipped slightly in 2016 and then he was at his best in 2017 (.882 OPS, 25 HR). Not that the Padres were expecting eight years of the 2017 version, but it’s safe to say that he wasn’t nearly as productive as they had hoped in his debut. It’s probable that he’ll continue to be up and down as he was with the Royals while delivering a couple of higher-output seasons somewhere in between.

Other than Hosmer at first base, catcher Austin Hedges is the only other position player who is all but assured to be in the Padres’ Opening Day starting lineup. Acquiring the best catching prospect in baseball, Francisco Mejia, last July has done nothing to change that. Hedges’ defense and leadership ability are much too valuable for a team that will continue to rely so much on young pitching. If the Padres believe that the 23-year-old Mejia is ready for the Majors in 2019, it could make sense to pair him with Hedges, who could be a strong mentor despite his age (26) and lack of MLB experience (2.166 days). Both players have a long ways to go to prove themselves offensively at the MLB level, but it wouldn’t be a stretch to think that the duo could combine for over 25 homers per season. Of course, Mejia could also be a valuable trade chip and could headline a major deal this offseason. He could also spend some more time in Triple-A. In either of those cases, the Padres would have to bring in a veteran backup to give Hedges an occasional day off. Free agent A.J. Ellis was terrific in that role last season.

While Reyes made plenty of noise during his rookie season, his contributions were somewhat of a surprise. Luis Urias’ debut in late August, however, marked the arrival of one of the organization’s highest-profile prospects. The 21-year-old had a handful of big games, but didn’t have much time to establish himself before a season-ending hamstring injury. Expected to be the team’s second baseman for years to come once he arrived in the Majors, Urias could temporarily slide over to shortstop depending on how things go this offseason.

With top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. closing in on the Majors, the expectation is that the Padres will either add a stop-gap or long-term solution at shortstop or third base. If shortstop is not addressed, Urias could play there until Tatis is ready to step in. If the Padres add a long-term solution at the position, Urias would stay at second base and Tatis would prepare to be the team’s third baseman of the near future. Other players who could figure into the mix in some way or another are Christian Villanueva, who crushed left-handed pitching in 2018 (1.118 OPS, 14 HR) but was awful versus right-handers, Carlos Asuaje, Jose Pirela and Cory Spangenberg. The latter trio is on the bubble to remain on the 40-man roster.

Free agent targets at third base could include another former Royals star, Mike Moustakas, or veterans Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Josh Harrison and Jed Lowrie. Only the 30-year-old Moustakas would appear to fit the team as a potential long-term solution if the Padres were willing to offer him a contract for at least three or four years. A run at Donaldson, whether on a pillow contract or multi-year deal, could be an interesting high-upside possibility if the Padres decide to make a push.

With multiple big-market teams expected to be involved in the bidding, Manny Machado is probably a long shot. But if last offseason was any indication, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Padres got involved on some level. As was the case with Hosmer, they could make a competitive offer early on and then wait for him to circle back if he doesn’t receive a better one. Unless Machado’s stock has dropped dramatically, though, that is not likely to happen.

Of the free agent shortstops, none other than Machado would be expected to sign for more than one or two seasons. Freddy Galvis, who the team raved about during his lone season in San Diego, could return on an affordable multi-year deal with the expectation that he’d move into a utility role once Tatis reached the Majors. Alcides Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jose Iglesias and Jordy Mercer are stop-gap options who would likely cost much less than the $6.8MM that Galvis earned in 2018.

If the Padres are to make a splash this offseason, it would most likely come via trade. Their farm system is good enough to get most any player that is available. Would Cleveland trade Jose Ramirez? Probably not this offseason. Even if they end up trading one of their best pitchers, the Indians are still the class of the AL Central. Eugenio Suarez would be a great fit at the hot corner, but the Reds are also looking to take the next step forward in their rebuild and wouldn’t want to trade one of their best hitters unless the return was not only compelling, but including some quality MLB assets. A three-team scenario involving Miguel Andujar of the Yankees is perhaps not unimaginable. (It’d be complicated, but so was the swap that brought Myers to San Diego.)

One very controversial option would be a buy-low acquisition of Cubs shortstop Addison Russell, who will miss the first month of the season while serving out a 40-game suspension under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy. Last month’s release of lefty reliever Jose Torres, however, could be an indication that the Padres aren’t interested in a player with that kind of baggage. After a strong rookie season in 2017 (4.21 ERA, 8.3 K/9 in 62 appearances), Torres spent 2018 on the Restricted list while serving a 100-game suspension under the MLB/MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy. Instead of reinstating him after the season, he was designated for assignment and subsequently released.

Mariners shortstop Jean Segura and third baseman Kyle Seager could be available and either would seem to fit the Padres’ need on the left side of the diamond. Segura’s price tag would be high—not a problem if the Padres like him enough to take on his almost $15MM per year salary for his ages 29-32 seasons—and Seager is still owed around $60MM through 2021 and coming off of a bad season. Using the Myers contract to facilitate a deal is at least an interesting possibility to contemplate. J.P. Crawford, Maikel Franco, and Jurickson Profar probably aren’t the huge difference-makers that the Padres are looking for, but they might be likelier to be available in a trade.

Stay tuned. Things could get very interesting if Preller is focused on the trade market to upgrade his lineup.

Despite having a wealth of pitching prospects who are set to reach the Majors sometime in the next year or two, the starting rotation is clearly the weakest link on this roster. Adding a frontline starter to pair with veteran workhorse Clayton Richard would take a great deal of weight off of the young pitchers who are still getting their feet wet or who will be debuting in 2019. Joey Lucchesi was impressive as a rookie, posting a 4.08 ERA, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 26 starts. After a rough stretch to begin his MLB career, Eric Lauer had a 3.16 ERA over his last 16 starts. That lefty duo should have a leg up on the competition, while Robbie Erlin, Bryan Mitchell, Jacob Nix and Luis Perdomo are among the arms who could compete for one of the last rotation spots. Brett Kennedy, Walker Lockett and Colin Rea will also be in the mix if they’re still on the 40-man roster when Spring Training begins.

Mitchell pitched so poorly in 2018 that he was demoted to the bullpen after seven starts before spending three months on the disabled list. He probably saved his roster spot in September with a 2.19 ERA in four starts, including 8.2 shutout innings in his final appearance. That type of performance was likely closer to what Preller had in mind when he took on Chase Headley’s $13MM salary in order to acquire Mitchell from the Yankees last offseason. It’s unlikely that Preller would want to give up on him so soon after making such a big investment.

A wildcard for the rotation will be Matt Strahm, who now has two very good seasons under his belt as a relief pitcher. With the growing importance of the multi-inning setup man role, the 27-year-old might have already found his niche. But it would be worth stretching him out this spring and giving him a decent chance to prove that he can be an effective starting pitcher.

The next wave of prospects, while unlikely to make an impact in April or May, could make things interesting at some point during the season. After sitting out the 2017 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Chris Paddack returned to health and quickly proved to be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He only has seven Double-A starts under his belt, but he’s not that far away. In 177.2 career innings in the Minors, the 22-year-old has a 1.82 ERA with an unfathomable 20 walks and 230 strikeouts. Logan Allen, the Texas League Pitcher of the Year, and former 1st Round pick Cal Quantrill should also reach San Diego in 2019. They won’t be the only potential reinforcements during the season. Dinelson Lamet, one of the few bright spots from the 2017 season, is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery and could be back in the second half.

While there are several free agent starting pitchers who could help in the short-term, including former Padres Trevor Cahill and Tyson Ross, and a few others who could make sense on a multi-year deal — Gio Gonzalez, for instance — the expectation is that the Padres will set their sights very high in their pursuit of a frontline starter who can anchor their rotation for several years. Noah Syndergaard would be quite a catch, but he’s also the kind of superstar acquisition that would take multiple elite prospects to get (if the Mets are even interested in that kind of package). Would giving up Paddack, Tatis and more in a deal for three years of Syndergaard be worth it? With how often pitchers get hurt, that could turn out to be a disaster. Corey Kluber, a 4th Round pick of the Padres back in 2007, and Danny Duffy could also be on their wish list. A Zack Greinke acquisition wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospect talent if there were willing to take on a big chunk of the $95.5MM that he’s still owed through 2021.

There are also quite a few pitchers with two years of control who might be had via trade, including Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, James Paxton and a rebound candidate in Julio Teheran. Preller would surely be somewhat more hesitant to give big pieces for that length of control, though of course less years also means a lower price tag (though each of these hurlers also earns at a manageable rate of pay). A pitcher of that ilk could help carry the team until another crop of pitching prospects — Michel Baez, Anderson Espinoza, MacKenzie Gore and Adrian Morejon are a big reason why their farm system is so widely-respected — is ready to step in.

Regardless of how much they can upgrade their rotation, they can always opt to lean a bit more on their bullpen if necessary. Teams like the A’s and Brewers proved in 2018 that you don’t need starting pitchers who can consistently work deep into games if the bullpen can consistently pick up the slack. It’s no surprise that the Padres’ bullpen was very good in 2018. Despite having ten sub-.500 seasons since the move to Petco Park in 2004, they’ve never cracked the 100-loss barrier. And that’s mostly due to a solid bullpen that keeps things from going completely off of the rails. Even without Brad Hand, who was traded to Cleveland in July, they are still in decent shape with closer Kirby Yates, Craig Stammen, Strahm (if he isn’t in the rotation), and a long list of hard-throwing pitchers with late-inning potential.

Strahm isn’t as dominant as Brewers’ bullpen star Josh Hader, but the left-hander proved that he can be very good in a similar high-leverage, multi-inning role. Jose Castillo and Robert Stock both passed their rookie auditions with flying colors, as did Trey Wingenter, though in a much smaller sample size. Stock and Wingenter each hit 100 MPH on multiple occasions and they aren’t the the only Padres’ pitchers who can bring that kind of heat. Former Rule 5 pick Miguel Diaz, 19-year-old Andres Munoz and Gerardo Reyes, all capable of hitting triple digits, could spend time in the Majors during the upcoming season.

There appears to be plenty of good relief options, but they’ve had so much success resurrecting careers that it would be a surprise if they didn’t add at least one veteran bounce-back candidate with late-inning experience. Former Nationals closer Drew Storen, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, is one of several relievers who will be looking for a chance to rebuild value in a pitcher-friendly atmosphere.

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2018-19 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals San Diego Padres

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Padres Showing Interest In Noah Syndergaard

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2018 at 11:31am CDT

After a failed pursuit of Noah Syndergaard this past July, the Padres remain interested in acquiring the right-hander from the Mets, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). SNY’s Andy Martino writes that Friars “are expected” to be more aggressive in their pursuit this time around.

To be clear, there’s not yet any indication that the Mets have any intention of trading Syndergaard. New general manager Brodie Van Wagenen spoke of a desire to return to contention when he was introduced earlier this month. Van Wagenen vowed to be active in the free agent market. Reports have suggested that the Mets will pursue an extension with Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. All of that points to a win-now mentality, and trading Syndergaard, at first glance, would seemingly fly in the face of that line of thinking.

It’s at least possible, though, to utilize Syndergaard as a means of acquiring controllable, MLB-ready pieces to plug into other areas of need on the roster. A healthy version of Syndergaard is among the game’s best pitchers and is an incredibly valuable asset to any club aiming to contend. But the Mets have numerous holes throughout the roster and a relatively thin farm system. The notion that teams operate as strict “buyers” or “sellers” has long been flawed, and it’s at least conceivable that the Mets could pursue free-agent upgrades while simultaneously dealing away a valuable MLB piece for multiple big league assets with greater club control.

The interest is notable, too, from the Padres’ vantage point. San Diego may not yet be ready to contend in 2019, but the very fact that general manager A.J. Preller is exploring the idea of cashing in some of his vaunted minor league depth to acquire rotation help seems to be a continuation of the thinking that led to last winter’s signing of Eric Hosmer. The Padres’ lengthy rebuild is at least nearing its terminus, and plugging in some pieces who can help both in 2019 and in 2020-21 — the likely target for a return to contention — may well be the next step in the process. The San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee recently reported that the Padres are eyeing starters young enough to be in their prime in that 2020-21 window, and Syndergaard assuredly fits the bill.

Syndergaard, 26, is under team control for another three seasons and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.9MM next season. He’s spent substantial time on the disabled list across the past two seasons but been legitimately excellent in 184 2/3 innings when healthy: 3.02 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9, 50.4 percent ground-ball rate, 2.56 FIP.

Those three remaining seasons of control, however, mean there’s no reason for Van Wagenen and the front office to feel compelled to move Syndergaard. Even if there’s no immediate desire or optimism regarding a Syndergaard extension, keeping him and deGrom together for at least the next two seasons gives the Mets a formidable rotation nucleus around which to build. And with Zack Wheeler set to hit the open market next winter while Steven Matz also deals with perennial injury issues, there’s an argument that keeping Syndergaard is crucial to the Mets’ plans beyond the ’19 season.

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New York Mets San Diego Padres Noah Syndergaard

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Market Chatter: Greinke, Suzuki, Eovaldi, Reds, Nats, Phils

By Jeff Todd | November 16, 2018 at 1:00am CDT

The Diamondbacks are “aggressively shopping” righty Zack Greinke, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). With $95.5MM of salary still due over the next three years, he’s an expensive option. But the deal is at least cabined in length, and the Snakes have a good shot at getting out from under most of it. (Alternatively, the club might be able to pay down a larger portion and recoup some talent in a swap — or go in the other direction and include additional talent to make the whole contract go away.) It’s still largely unclear how things will shake out, but the fact that the Arizona organization is looking for a taker certainly makes a trade seem quite plausible.

Here’s the latest chatter on the rest of the market:

  • It is a testament to veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki that he has been re-signed, re-acquired, or extended by three of the four organizations he has played for. One of those, the Athletics, could have designs on a third stint. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, there has already been some discussion between the Oakland club and the 35-year-old free agent. Suzuki has never been more productive at the plate than he was over the past two years with the Braves, when he turned in a cumulative .276/.341/.485 slash with 31 home runs in 697 plate appearances. Slusser also notes that reliever Shawn Kelley remains a possibility to return, with four other teams also inquiring about securing his services.
  • Nathan Eovaldi’s health is a major factor in his free agency. Though he’s only 28 years of age, the righty has undergone a pair of Tommy John surgeries and required another elbow procedure before making it back to the mound in 2018. Of course, the results were quite promising, and he has now also received a strong endorsement from his surgeon today, as Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports. Dr. Christopher Ahmad says that, after conducting an extensive examination, he “would consider [Eovaldi] in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm.” While any signing team will want to take a look for itself, it’s obviously quite a notable opinion to receive at the outset of free agency.
  • The Reds would surely love to land Eovaldi or another higher-end arm, though it’s still questionable whether they’ll dabble in that end of the market. What is clear, president of baseball operations Dick Williams said in a radio interview, is that the club hopes to find a pair of new pitchers — likely starters (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Getting the right arms won’t just mean waiting to see what shakes loose at a cheap price, says Williams. Rather, the club intends “to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.” Sure enough, Jon Heyman of Fancred says the Reds have engaged with the Mariners (James Paxton), Indians (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco), and Yankees (Sonny Gray). With the Cinci org said to be hesitant to move its best assets, getting the desired arms could mean exploring some creative trades. That said, Williams shot down recent chatter surrounding purported Padres interest in star Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez. “Just to sort of nip that in the bud, I’ll tell you that rumor is unfounded,” said Williams.
  • It’s also clear that the Nationals are on the lookout for starters, though here also it’s hard to know just where the team may focus. As I discussed recently in setting forth the team’s outlook for the 2018-19 offseason, there are an abundance of possibilities at this point. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post provides some insight into the club’s thinking while ticking through the options. She notes that the Nats “think highly” of free agent Dallas Keuchel — the match we predicted when we broke down our Top 50 Free Agents. That’s not to say, of course, that he’s a uniquely clear fit in D.C. As Janes explains, the organization still seems likely to canvass the market, though it seems reasonable to anticipate that it’ll come away with at least one significant new hurler.
  • Staying in the division, it’s worth looking back at a post we missed at the time. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported recently that the Phillies are quite likely to deal away third baseman Maikel Franco. Indeed, it seems there’s a reasonable match already under contemplation with the Padres. Of course as noted above, the Friars clearly are interested in looking around the rest of the market before pulling the trigger on a deal for Franco. The Phils are also said to be willing to discuss Cesar Hernandez, though he seems much less likely to be shipped out. It’ll be interesting to see how everything will unfold in Philadelphia, as the team is known to be chasing some of the biggest names on the market but also has some less consequential moves that it could contemplate pulling off first.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners Washington Nationals Carlos Carrasco Cesar Hernandez Corey Kluber Dallas Keuchel Eugenio Suarez James Paxton Kurt Suzuki Maikel Franco Nathan Eovaldi Shawn Kelley Sonny Gray Zack Greinke

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Quick Hits: Montoyo, Farm System Values, Mets

By TC Zencka | November 12, 2018 at 11:03am CDT

While awaiting movement on the free agent front, enjoy some lighter fare from around the league…

  • New Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo followed a relatively straight path to his first managerial gig, but that doesn’t mean it was easy – or quick. The straight-shootin’, bongo-playin’ skipper was a career minor-leaguer as a player, a Triple-A Hall-of-Famer as a manager, and yet, when he finally got his opportunity as a third-base coach for Kevin Cash’s Rays, the promotions came quickly. Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling charts Montoyo’s career path from the first scholarship he earned as a ballplayer from Puerto Rico through his 18 seasons managing in the Rays minor-league system. It’s a longer profile, but well worth a read for Blue Jays fans who want to get excited about what Charlie Montoyo brings to Toronto: he’s a stern developer of young talent, a keen innovator of fielding shifts and an earnest baseball lifer.
  • Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards attempts to estimate the value of entire farm systems in terms of WAR and free-agent dollars. By organizing the top 800 players in the minor leagues into tiers and making one WAR equal to $9MM based on their calculations of free agent values under the current CBA, Edwards has put together a table to show the rough free agent dollar value of each farm system. The Padres’ system, unsurprisingly, tops the charts at 50.9 Present-Day WAR worth $458MM, while the Mariners pull up the rear at 4.8 Present-Day WAR worth $43MM. Their tiering methodology and the prospect grading process is laid out in further detail here.
  • The Athletic’s Tim Britton proposes in a four-part hypothetical how the Mets could turn themselves into a contender this winter. Britton’s Plan A includes signing Manny Machado, Yasmani Grandal, a couple of elite relievers and investing in depth. In a purely theoretical context, there’s not much to argue with there. Practically speaking, the subtext suggests that the Mets have holes at both the top and bottom of their roster, with the left side of the infield and bullpen being particular areas of concern that could use an upgrade.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post also advocates for a winter spending spree, though he focuses more on the why than Britton, whose focus is the how. The Mets don’t have any payroll commitments beyond 2020, so taking a chance with a megacontract player like Machado isn’t inconceivable, but one player doesn’t usually swing the pendulum. To Britton’s point, there are 520 minor-league free agents available, and the Mets, as well as other teams, should take the opportunity to try and find the next Max Muncy. Other names listed as potential depth targets include Jordy Mercer, Neil Walker, Logan Forsythe, Drew Pomeranz or even a trade target like the Brewers’ Keon Broxton. 
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New York Mets San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners Toronto Blue Jays

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West Notes: Rox, Realmuto, Padres, Rangers, Mariners

By Connor Byrne | November 10, 2018 at 6:40pm CDT

Despite the struggles of the Rockies’ catchers in 2018, it doesn’t appear they’ll be among the most ardent suitors for Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, Thomas Harding of MLB.com hears. It’s unclear, though, whether Colorado will make a less splashy attempt to upgrade over its current trio of Chris Iannetta, Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy, a woeful offensive group in 2018. Realmuto was the game’s premier catcher last season, on the other hand, but his refusal to sign an extension with the Marlins makes him a prime trade candidate. With two years of arbitration control remaining, Realmuto would bring back an impressive haul, but it doesn’t look as if it’ll come from Colorado.

  • The Padres are rife with major league-caliber outfielders, meaning they’re going to “have to make some decisions and calls on” that area of their roster this offseason, general manager A.J. Preller said this week (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Out of the Padres’ current group of outfielders, Cassavell classifies Wil Myers, Travis Jankowski, Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes as trade candidates, adding that one of the latter two is likeliest to end up on the move. As right-handed sluggers with defensive limitations, Renfroe and Reyes offer similar skill sets, observes Cassavell, who notes that dealing one of the two would enable San Diego to move Myers from third base back to the outfield. The 27-year-old Myers, who owns the Padres’ second-richest contract (he’s guaranteed $64MM through 2023), saw his first real action at third base in 2018. Advanced metrics assigned Myers mixed reviews over a fairly small sample of appearances (36), as he accounted for one DRS and minus-5.4 UZR.
  • The Rangers elected to decline catcher Robinson Chirinos’ option for 2019 because of both the salary they’d have owed him ($4.5MM) and his defensive woes, according to Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram. Chirinos was one of the majors’ worst defensive catchers in 2018, but it was still a surprise that Texas let him become a free agent. After all, the 34-year-old did offer solid offensive production for the fifth straight season, hitting .222/.338/.419 (103 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 426 plate appearances, and exercising his option hardly would’ve broken the bank. Further, the Rangers don’t seem to have a full-time replacement on hand, as they’re not of the belief either Jose Trevino or Isiah Kiner-Falefa is ready for No. 1 duties, per Wilson. Texas is in the market for a primary backstop as a result, and though there are several established veterans on the open market, Wilson suggests Chirinos’ successor could arrive via trade.
  • Like their AL West rival in Arlington, the Mariners are seeking a starting catcher, having traded Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay on Thursday. With Zunino gone and the Mariners down to unproven 29-year-old David Freitas as their top option, Greg Johns of MLB.com runs down potential catcher acquisitions for the club. Considering the state of Seattle’s roster, GM Jerry Dipoto may attempt to trade for an experienced backstop who’s controllable for the next three to five years, writes Johns, who lists some potential targets in his piece.
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Colorado Rockies San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Franmil Reyes Hunter Renfroe J.T. Realmuto Travis Jankowski Wil Myers

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Market Notes: Yankees, Padres, Gray, Athletics, Cards

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2018 at 10:14pm CDT

With the GM Meetings now wrapped up, the stage is set for the offseason action to get underway. Of course, we’re still waiting for some significant dominoes to fall … and everyone involved is no doubt curious to see how this year’s market will develop after the 2017-18 dud. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports cites some warning signs on spending levels; readers interested in the higher-level picture will want to give his reasoning a look.

While we wait for some hard data points to be set down, the just-completed meetings left quite a few rumors. We’ve covered many over the past several days; here are a few more worthy of note:

  • Though the Yankees seem unsettled at first base, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that they haven’t reached out to the Diamondbacks on slugger Paul Goldschmidt. The potential rental slugger, one of the game’s steadiest offensive producers, is reportedly on the trading block. While the Yankees got stunning production from Luke Voit over a brief stretch late last year, and still have Greg Bird on hand, it wouldn’t be surprising if they sought to add a bigger piece.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Bronx organization seems fixated first on pitching. Beyond its free agent targets, the club is looking into the biggest possible names on the trade market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Yanks have opened a line of communication with the Mariners on James Paxton. And the New York delegation to the GM Meetings met with their peers from the Indians, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), with Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco both covered in conversation. It obviously isn’t at all surprising to hear that the Yankees have checked in on these distinguished hurlers, but it’s nevertheless a notable bit of information as the market continues to develop.
  • There are quite a few possibilities for the Padres, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription link), as the organization is feeling a need to show some real strides in the win-loss department. We’ve heard chatter recently about the desire for a young starter and the series of potential trade pieces, but Lin’s most interesting notes seem to focus on the left side of the infield. Manny Machado is not seen internally as a realistic target, with Freddy Galvis still under consideration at short. If the team really wants to push things forward, though, Galvis or another veteran may only warm the seat up for top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. At third, Josh Donaldson does not appear to be the first name on the club’s list of targets. Rather, says Lin, the current plan is to seek a new third baseman via trade.
  • So, where have the Padres set their sights for a third baseman? There aren’t many obviously available options that would figure to represent everyday pieces. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported recently, though, that the Pads are interested in pursuing Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who recently posted a big campaign on the heels of what now looks to be quite a team-friendly extension. Given the Cincinnati organization’s inclination to begin pushing toward contention, that seems like a tough deal to swing for Padres GM A.J. Preller.
  • Acee also tabs the Padres as a suitor for Yankees righty Sonny Gray, who’s being openly marketed. Whether Gray would be seen as fulfilling the club’s rotation needs, or rather serving as a potential complement to a more significant addition, isn’t clear. There are other teams with interest in Gray, of course. Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, at least five organizations have inquired, and it wouldn’t be surprising to hear of more. Among those contemplating a move is Gray’s former employer. The Athletics evidently think their former staff ace could bounce back in Oakland, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. Of course, it remains to be seen how much the A’s will be willing to stake on a turnaround. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that at least five teams have inquired with the Yankees on Gray’s availability — the A’s presumably among them. Gray is projected to top $9MM in arbitration earnings this winter, but he thrived away from Yankee Stadium last season and had plenty of encouraging secondary metrics beyond his rudimentary ERA.
  • We’ve heard recently that the Cardinals intend to explore the relief market, with one southpaw on the team’s priority list. Accordingly, it’s no surprise to hear that the club is among the many teams to show early interest in veteran lefty Andrew Miller, as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. Miller is drawing interest after getting some good news on his knee, so there’ll be no shortage of competition. At this point, it’s entirely unclear where he’ll end up.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians New York Yankees Oakland Athletics San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Andrew Miller Carlos Carrasco Corey Kluber Eugenio Suarez Freddy Galvis James Paxton Josh Donaldson Manny Machado Paul Goldschmidt Sonny Gray

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Minor MLB Transactions: 11/7/18

By Jeff Todd | November 7, 2018 at 2:51pm CDT

Interested in learning about the players that have just reached the open market as minor-league free agents? There are quite a few, and Matt Eddy of Baseball America lists them all.

Here are some notable recent minor transactions from around the game:

  • First baseman Ike Davis has decided to wrap up his playing career, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post (Twitter link). The 31-year-old had most recently attempted to revitalize his career by moving to the mound, drawing some positive initial reviews from the Dodgers. He ended up only making a few rookie ball appearances, though, so obviously the transition did not work out. Ultimately, Davis will be remembered for his time in a Mets uniform. The former first round pick showed plenty of promise early in his career, but a lower leg injury and bout with valley fever in 2011 seemingly sidetracked him. Davis ultimately compiled a .239/.332/.414 slash line with 81 home runs in 2,392 trips to the plate at the game’s highest level.
  • Padres righty Kazuhisa Makita was outrighted after clearing waivers, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (via Twitter). That’s no surprise, in light of his $1.9MM salary for the coming season. Makita could yet emerge as a useful asset for the Pads, as he showed an ability to generate both swings and misses and quite a few infield flies at the MLB level. Unfortunately, the Japanese hurler was also tagged for seven home runs and a 5.40 ERA in 35 innings in his debut big league campaign.
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San Diego Padres Transactions Ike Davis Kazuhisa Makita

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