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Quick Hits: Padres, Red Sox, Cubs

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The Padres have done a tremendous job in recent years growing the top farm system in the game, but the organization underwent a financial reshaping that was just as important to long-term stability, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Mired in the debt inherited from previous owner John Moores, Executive Chairman Ron Fowler led the charge in two important ways: refinancing the debt (thereby lowering interest rates and freeing up money to funnel into baseball ops), and opening the organization’s spending ledger to the public – an uncommon degree of transparency for an MLB club. Acee’s entire article is well worth a read as it paints a fairly complete picture of San Diego’s battle to build a winning franchise that is also fiscally sustainable. Essentially, the Padres followed the structural rebuilding approach popularized by Theo Epstein in Chicago: improve fan experience with additions/renovations to the ballpark while pouring roster resources into the acquisition and development of amateur and international talent. Epstein’s focus on improving the ballpark itself was a strategy he employed in Boston with Fenway Park, and again with Wrigley Field in Chicago. Speaking of…

  • The Red Sox are treading awfully close to the penalty-inducing $246MM tax threshold, and Masslive.com’s Christopher Smith wonders if that might be why they didn’t make a push to sign reliever Adam Ottavino. Dave Dombrowski has said there’s no mandate from ownership to avoid the highest tax bracket – but that’s still the goal. It’s easy to wonder why the Red Sox haven’t made more of a push to reinforce the back end of their bullpen, but it’s not totally fair to assume Ottavino was available to them for $9MM a year, as merely matching the Yankees offer doesn’t steal the contract like a white elephant gift. Still, with Joe Kelly in LA and Craig Kimbrel twisting in the wind, there is a surprising lack of urgency to add to the current stable of arms in the bullpen, especially considering the narrow margin for error in the AL East.
  • Much has been made of the Cubs lack of activity this winter as well, burnished by Theo Epstein’s early-offseason assertion that the offense was broken. Owner Tom Ricketts, however, doesn’t see any room for an addition in the lineup, writes the Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Considering the overall youth of their core and the injuries that limited star Kris Bryant to 102 games last season, Epstein and Ricketts might both be right. The team clearly isn’t willing to give up on Jason Heyward yet, so you can pencil him into the starting spot in right, with Ian Happ in center and Ben Zobrist at second, Albert Almora Jr., Addison Russell, David Bote and Daniel Descalso make up the remaining bench unit, ostensibly filling the roster. Outside of fringe roster types, the Cubs offense might be a one-man-in, one-man-out situation for the rest of the winter.
  • There’s cause enough to be concerned about the Cubs offense in 2019, certainly, between Russell’s suspension, Zobrist’s age, and Willson Contreras’ obvious exhaustion near the end of last season, but internally, there’s much to be excited about. At the Cubs Convention this week, Bryant and Epstein both talked up new hitting coach Anthony Iopace, whom Epstein calls “the ultimate fox-hole guy,” per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). As the Cubs former minor league hitting coordinator, he has a rapport with many Cubs hitters already and should be able to hit the ground running. Bryant, for one, is excited about a new season under the infectious energy of “’Poce,” per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. The Cubs brain trust appear firm in their belief that tinkering of internal processes is all the team needs to bounce back from a “disappointing” 95-win season and challenge for the top spot in the NL Central once again.

Padres, Reds, Indians Have Discussed 3-Team Scenario Involving Corey Kluber

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The Padres, Reds, and Indians have engaged in discussions regarding a possible three-team trade scenario, according to Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links).

Precise permutations aren’t known, but the concept at play appears to be one that would send Cleveland ace Corey Kluber to Cincinnati via San Diego. Neither is it clear how serious talks are; Lin does emphasize, though, that no deal is close at present.

It seems the driving force here is the Friars’ search for a third baseman — and their ongoing attempt to structure a significant deal that improves the MLB roster now without denting the future outlook. Having failed to line up in direct talks to this point, Lin suggests, GM A.J. Preller is attempting to piece together more complicated, three-team arrangements.

While the Padres have long been said to be seeking quality MLB starting pitching, in addition to a hot corner upgrade, the report makes clear that they aren’t interested in acquiring Kluber for their own purposes. Though the outstanding righty certainly would be the ace the club would like to pick up, his relatively advanced age (33 in April) is a turnoff. And though his contract rights — $52.5MM over the next three years, the latter two via club option — remain quite appealing, it’s still a hefty payroll commitment for a traditionally low-budget org.

Of course, that same essential description holds also for the Reds, another team that’s hoping to boost its immediate performance while maintaining its long-term vision for a young, sustainable core. The Cincy ballclub has long been said to have interest in Kluber, and may have a slightly different tolerance for the age risk that comes with him.

Still, it’s no surprise to hear Lin reiterate that the club still isn’t terribly inclined to deal top prospect Nick Senzel to facilitate a deal. Senzel will not be parted with lightly, but indications are that he may ultimately be the object of the Padres’ fascination here. He’d more or less step right in at third base in San Diego and deliver a prized combination of youthful upside and affordable team control.

That leads to the element of this concept that’s most curious of all. The budget-conscious Indians only embarked upon talks involving Kluber as part of an effort to trim some payroll and better situate their roster for the future — all without sacrificing a still-clear path to another AL Central crown. That entire undertaking makes the most sense if the club adds a player of Senzel’s ilk.

Senzel would fit perfectly in Cleveland, where he could line up in the infield or outfield. (The Reds, of course, have considered utilizing him on the grass due to their own bumper crop of quality infielders.) Presumably, the Reds and Indians have already explored a Senzel-for-Kluber deal directly and failed to find common ground. Otherwise, it’s hard to see why the intermediary would be needed at all.

If not Senzel, then what would the Indians want out of all this? There’d surely be some level of interest in some of the Padres’ young MLB assets, with outfielder Manuel Margot and catcher Austin Hedges looking to be hypothetical fits from an outside perspective. (Interestingly, those teams lined up last summer on a deal that sent Francisco Mejia — another theoretical match — to San Diego.) But it stands to reason that the Indians would no doubt also demand some top-end young talent to drive the deal. The San Diego farm is loaded, but its very best pieces (Fernando Tatis Jr., especially) may not be on offer.

All said, it’s possible to imagine some permutations that might make sense for all involved, depending upon how the teams value the various potential pieces. But it’s an awfully tricky match. All three clubs are quite payroll sensitive. Of them, the Indians are clearly in the best position to win now, yet they’d be giving up the win-now piece. If there’s real substance to these discussions, or better still an eventual transaction, it’ll certainly represent a fascinating potential case study for understanding contemporary baseball decisionmaking.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/13/19

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Catching up on some recent minor league moves from around the baseball world….

  • The Cubs signed catcher Francisco Arcia to a minor league deal, as originally reported by the Cubs Prospects Twitter feed.  Originally signed as a teenager by the Yankees in 2006, the 29-year-old Arcia finally cracked the big leagues last season, appearing 40 games for the Angels and hitting .204/.226/.427 with six homers over 106 plate appearances.  Arcia will provide the Cubs with some depth behind backup Victor Caratini, and Arcia could also battle for the backup role himself in Spring Training.
  • The Rays signed right-hander Luis Santos to a minors contract, Baseball America’s Matthew Eddy reports.  Santos posted a 5.15 ERA over 36 2/3 innings out of the Blue Jays’ bullpen over the last two seasons, though a big problem with the long ball (2.0 HR/9) belied some better peripherals, such as a 9.8 K/9 and a 2.86 K/BB rate.
  • Also from Eddy, the Rockies re-signed left-hander Sam Howard to a minors deal, after originally non-tendering Howard at the start of December.  Howard was a third-round pick for the Rockies in 2014, and he made his Major League debut last season, tossing four innings over four games with Colorado.  MLB.com ranks Howard as the 24th-best prospect in the Rockies’ farm system, describing him as a potential fourth starter in the big leagues “if he can improve his slider and command.”
  • The Padres signed left-hander Eric Stout to a minor league contract, according to Zone Coverage’s Brandon Warne (Twitter link).  Stout posted a 3.68 ERA, 2.63 K/BB rate, and 7.4 K/9 over 269 1/3 career innings in the Royals’ farm system, appearing as a reliever in all but five of his 153 career games.    Stout also made his MLB debut in 2018, appearing in three games for Kansas City.
  • Also from Warne, the Royals inked infielder Taylor Featherston to a minors contract.  After playing in 137 games with the Angels, Phillies, and Rays from 2015-17, Featherston didn’t see any Major League action last season, spending time in the farm systems of the Twins and Reds, plus a short stint in independent ball.  Featherston has offered more with the glove than his bat over his career, with a lot of experience at second base, third base, and shortstop, plus some time as a left field and first baseman.
  • The Giants have signed righty Keyvius Sampson to a minors deal.  Sampson makes his return to North American baseball after spending 2018 with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization, posting a 4.68 ERA over 161 2/3 IP for the Eagles and posting a league-best 195 strikeouts.  Sampson has pitched for five different MLB organizations during his 10-year pro career, though he only reached the majors for 91 2/3 innings with the Reds in 2015-16.
  • The Giants also signed second baseman Donovan Solano to a minors deal, as per the Giants Prospects Twitter feed.  Solano was a regular for the Marlins in his first three MLB seasons, though he appeared more sporadically for the Marlins and Yankees in 2015-16 and hasn’t since returned to the Show, playing for the Yankees’ and Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliates over the last two seasons.  Playing mostly as a second baseman but with some experience around the infield, Solano has a .257/.306/.331 slash line over 1168 MLB plate appearances.

Latest On Padres’ Third Base, Outfield Situations

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Wil Myers was one of the Padres’ most popular options at third base last year, but it doesn’t appear he’ll factor in at the hot corner in 2019. On Saturday, Myers told reporters – including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com –  that he’ll be a full-time outfielder next season.

Of course, Myers’ shift back to the outfield will have ripple effects on the rest of the Padres’ position player group. Not only will it add to an outfield logjam – one that also includes Franchy Cordero, Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Manuel Margot and Travis Jankowski – but it’ll make it all the more important for San Diego to find a starting third baseman. The Padres have been prioritizing third this offseason, as Cassavell reported last month and as Acee further emphasizes.

One potential third base target could be free agent Mike Moustakas, first baseman Eric Hosmer’s longtime Royals teammate, though Acee casts doubt on the Padres signing him. Meanwhile, they have “explored” trades for the Yankees’ Miguel Andujar (previously reported), the Reds’ Nick Senzel and the Cubs’ David Bote, according to Acee. Speculatively, both Andujar and Senzel may be unrealistic targets for the Padres (or just about anyone else), given their importance to their current teams. The 25-year-old Bote could be easier to land, on the other hand, as he’s stuck behind Kris Bryant in the Cubs’ pecking order at third base. An 18th-round pick of the Cubs in 2012, Bote debuted in the majors last season with a .239/.319/.408 line and six home runs over 210 plate appearances. He carries a much more imposing .281/.355/.502 slash and 15 HRs in 299 Triple-A PAs.

Regardless of whom the Padres pick up to handle third in 2019, it doesn’t seem as if their entire contingent of outfielders will stick around for the foreseeable future. Except for Myers, the Padres could option anyone from the group to the minors. Nevertheless, the team’s “motivated” to part with at least one of its outfielders either prior to the season or before July’s trade deadline, Acee suggests. Should a trade happen, Cassavell contends one of Myers, Renfroe or Reyes would go, as they’re all relatively similar players. With a guaranteed $64MM coming his way over the next four seasons (including a $1MM buyout in lieu of a $20MM club option in 2023), Myers may be the most difficult of three to move. Indeed, as of last season and earlier this winter, trading Myers likely would have required San Diego to take on another team’s undesirable contract, Acee relays. So far, though, the Padres haven’t found a deal to their liking for the 28-year-old.

NL Notes: Kluber, Padres, Dodgers, Harper, Nats, Cubs, Boras/Phils

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The Padres persist in their dogged pursuit of Indians ace Corey Kluber, per MLB.com’s JP Morosi, who notes that the club would prefer to hold on to each of its top five prospects. The Tribe reportedly “have interest” in lefty Adrian Morejon, who, despite his status as a consensus top 50-75 prospect, wouldn’t fall into the aforementioned category in a loaded Padre farm. Still, it’s tough to see a deal consummated without one of those players; Cleveland, after all, has been widely reported to be seeking a Chris Sale-esque return for Kluber, and wouldn’t likely settle for even high-grade chaff. If the club is still interested in dealing the 32-year-old ace, the Padres would be seem a perfect fit: the club is loaded not only with blue-chip prospects, but also sport a glut of young, if underperforming, outfielders at every position. Morosi lists Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe as options, though the Tribe may also have its eyes on Franmil Reyes and Franchy Cordero, in addition to the richly-paid Wil Myers.

More from the Senior Circuit …

  • In the same article, Morosi reports that the Dodgers still “remain involved” in discussions for Kluber. The club certainly boasts its share of high-level farm talent – though it can’t match the San Diego riches – but thus far, under the tenure of Baseball Ops President Andrew Friedman, has been altogether opposed to dealing from the top of its farm. Multiple high-level departures would be an unequivocal sea change for the boys in blue, who may be feeling the pressure from a desperate fanbase after so many near-misses in the recent past. Adding Kluber to the top of the team’s rotation without a 25-man prune has to be tempting for even the most measured of front offices, but the slotted five (Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, and Rich Hill) already rival any in the game.
  • Though many executives questioned the veracity of the Nationals’ reported 10-year, $300MM offer to Bryce Harper on the last day of the season, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the offer was “indeed real,” and that the two sides continue to negotiate. Harper, it seems, would very much like to surpass the $325MM guaranteed to Giancarlo Stanton, though doesn’t appear to have the wind-ranging market he once envisioned. Some interested teams continue to disguise their intentions, but not the Cubs, who Rosenthal notes “would love” a shot at Harper, if only the front office could get the “unlikely” go-ahead from ownership.
  • Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia details the Fightins’ unique relationship with agent Scott Boras over the years, which reached a tipping point over 1997’s bitter dispute with number two overall pick J.D. Drew. The Phillies, of course, are set to meet with Harper today in Las Vegas, and have long been considered the near-favorite for his services. Per Salisbury, the club plans to address recent reports that the 26-year-old star is not fond of Philadelphia, which would seem to strike a death knell to the team’s chances. Among all potential suitors with near-term competitive ambitions, the Phils have the greatest need – and, perhaps, the most available cash – for Harper, and perhaps the team’s recent amenability with Boras could tip the scales in its direction.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
  • The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
  • The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
  • The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
  • The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.

Earlier Updates

Read more

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday

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The deadline for teams and players to exchange arbitration figures is tomorrow afternoon at 1pm ET. With the vast majority of teams now adopting a “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration — that is, halting negotiations on one-year contracts once figures have been exchanged and simply going to a hearing at that point — there will be a deluge of arbitration agreements in the next 24 hours. It’s a minor deadline day in terms of newsworthiness — outside of the largest cases, at least — as few arbitration cases will have a significant impact on their team’s overall payroll picture. From a broader perspective, though, the exchange of arb figures is perhaps more notable. With most or all of their arbitration cases out of the way, teams can focus more heavily on the trade and free-agent markets.

As always, it’s interesting to refer back to MLBTR’s annual arbitration projections. Here are the day’s deals:

  • The Tigers will pay Shane Greene $4MM for the coming campaign, Murray tweets. Entering his second year of eligibility, the 30-year-old had projected at $4.8MM, owing largely to his strong tally of 32 saves. Despite appealing K/BB numbers, though, Greene finished the season with an unsightly 5.12 ERA.
  • Righty Nick Tropeano settled with the Angels at $1.075MM. (That’s also via Murray, on Twitter.) That falls well shy of his $1.6MM projection. The first-year arb-eligible hurler was not terribly effective in his 14 starts last year and has just over two hundred career frames in the big leagues, due in no small part to a long rehab owing to Tommy John surgery.

Earlier Updates

  • Newly acquired outfielder Domingo Santana will earn $1.95MM in his first season with the Mariners, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. That’s just a touch below the $2.0MM that MLBTR & Matt Swartz had projected. The 26-year-old Santana swatted thirty long balls and had a productive overall 2017 season, but only received 235 plate appearances in the ensuing campaign — over which he hit five home runs and carried a .265/.328/.412 slash — before being dealt to Seattle.
  • The Angels are on the hook for $1,901,000 to rehabbing righty J.C. Ramirez, Robert Murray of The Athletic tweets. Ramirez will receive a nominal raise on his 2018 salary after requiring Tommy John surgery after just two starts.
  • Phillies righty Hector Neris has settled at $1.8MM, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (Twitter links). He had projected at $2.0MM but will settle for a bit less in his first season of arb eligibility. Right-handed starter Jerad Eickhoff, meanwhile, is slated to receive $975K. His projected first-year salary was much higher, at $1.7MM, but Eickhoff presented a tough case since he missed virtually all of his platform season with arm troubles.
  • Southpaw Ryan Buchter has agreed with the Athletics on a $1.4MM deal, Nightengale of reports on Twitter. That lands just a smidge over his $1.3MM projection. Soon to turn 32, Buchter worked to a sub-3.00 for the third-straight season in 2018, but only threw 39 1/3 innings while working as a lefty specialist.
  • Red Sox reliever Heath Hembree will receive a $1,312,500 salary next year, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports (Twitter link). Starter Steven Wright checks in just a shade higher, at $1.375MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Both players had projected in this range, with Swartz pegging $1.2MM for the former and $1.4MM for the latter. It’s Hembree’s first time through the process and Wright’s second.
  • First-time arb-eligible righty Scott Oberg settled with the Rockies for $1.3MM, according to Nightengale (via Twitter). It’s $100K over the projected rate for the 28-year-old hurler, who turned in far and away his most productive MLB season in 2018.
  • The Yankees have a $1.2MM deal in place with first baseman Greg Bird, Nightengale was first to tweet. Though he had projected a bit higher, at $1.5MM, Bird’s relatively robust number of home runs (31 total in 659 career plate appearances) were threatened to be overshadowed in a hypothetical hearing by his rough overall stats over the past two seasons. He’ll need to earn his way back into a larger share of playing time in 2019.
  • Infielder Travis Jankowski will earn $1.165MM with the Padres, per Murray (via Twitter). He projected at a heftier $1.4MM, but the Super Two qualifier will still earn a nice raise after his best season in the big leagues. Jankowski will be looking to crack 400 plate appearances for the first time in the season to come.
  • The Nationals have agreed to a $1MM contract with righty Joe Ross, Murray also tweets. Though Ross projected at $1.5MM for his first season of eligibility, that was based largely upon the innings he accumulated over the prior three seasons. Ross made it back from Tommy John surgery in time for only three outings in 2018.
  • A pair of backstops have also put pen to paper on new salaries. Curt Casali will earn $950K with the Reds, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). John Ryan Murphy has a $900K agreement with the Diamondbacks, the elder Nightengale tweets. Casali, a Super Two, had projected for a $1.3MM salary, while Murphy projected at $1.1MM in his first arb year.

Marlins Reportedly Engaged In “Substantive” Realmuto Trade Talks

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Now that Yasmani Grandal has agreed to terms with the Brewers, the Marlins are ramping up trade talks surrounding J.T. Realmuto and are in “substantive discussions” with six teams, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Frisaro pegs the Dodgers, Braves, Astros, Rays, Padres and Reds as the six teams still in the mix for Realmuto. Frisaro further tweets that the Dodgers “may be [the] most motivated” to land Realmuto of the six current suitors.

As one would expect, the report indicates that Miami’s asking price remains extremely high — at least one elite prospect and, in some cases, a big league catcher with some MLB experience already under his belt. For the six clubs in question, the Dodgers (Austin Barnes), Astros (Max Stassi), Padres (Austin Hedges) and Rays (Michael Perez) would best fit that billing. The Reds, too, have Tucker Barnhart as a catcher with MLB experience, though he’s signed through 2021 (plus a 2022 option) as part of a $16MM extension. He’s previously been rumored as a potential piece in talks with the Marlins, but while his salary isn’t exactly prohibitive, it’d be more logical to see Miami pursue younger, pre-arbitration options who are not yet eligible for arbitration. None of the aforementioned catchers, of course, would be a centerpiece to the deal but could give the Marlins a near-term replacement while they hope for higher-end talent to emerge from their system.

When and whether anything more significant comes to fruition remains to be seen, but the timing of the report certainly makes sense. Now that Grandal is no longer an option for teams around the league who are in the market for a catcher, the Marlins can legitimately pitch Realmuto as the primary difference-maker available. As shown in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker, light-hitting defensive specialist Martin Maldonado is the top remaining free agent. Pirates backstop Francisco Cervelli is an option on the trade market, but he’s earning north of $11MM next season, would be a one-year rental and has some concerning recent issues with concussions.

All six of the rumored suitors have deep farm systems that also feature high-end talent, with each of the bunch possessing multiple prospects currently ranked among the game’s 50 best minor leaguers (per both MLB.com and Fangraphs). However, teams throughout the league are increasingly reluctant to part with top-tier minor league talent — particularly when the prospective trade partner is also seeking a controllable MLB-level asset in return, as the Marlins appear to be doing in Realmuto discussions.

Padres, Robbie Erlin Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres have avoided arbitration with southpaw Robbie Erlin by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $1.45MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. That marks an $800K raise from last season’s $650K salary and checks in a fair bit north of Erlin’s projected $1.1MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). Erlin is repped by Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.

The 28-year-old Erlin was arbitration-eligible for a second time this winter and will go through the process once more next winter before becoming a free agent upon completion of the 2020 season. Erlin missed most of the 2016 season and the entire 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery (hence the modest $650K salary in his first trip through the arb process), but he rebounded with a solid effort on the mound in 2018. The left-hander tossed 109 innings for the Friars and logged a 4.21 ERA, though his sterling 88-to-12 K/BB ratio and solid 46.7 percent ground-ball rate led fielding-independent metrics to view his work much more favorably (3.31 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, 3.52 SIERA).

Erlin made 27 relief appearances and a dozen starts for the Padres last season, including a run of 10 starts to finish out his season. The Padres were cautious with those starts, never allowing him to reach 100 pitches and only allowing him to top five innings on one occasion, but he’ll likely open the season in the San Diego rotation with fewer restrictions now that he’s further removed from surgery.

The Padres have now avoided arbitration with Erlin, righty Bryan Mitchell and infielder Greg Garcia, leaving right-hander Kirby Yates, outfielder Travis Jankowski and catcher Austin Hedges as their three remaining cases to be resolved. With the deadline to exchange arbitration figures looming on Friday, there figures to be a veritable avalanche of settlements on Friday (in addition to a few early deals today and tomorrow). Readers can keep up with all of the filings and settlements using MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Free Agent Rumors: Moustakas, Phillies, ChiSox, Dozier, Mariners

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A few notes on the free-agent market as a quiet night in baseball draws to a close…

  • Both the Phillies and White Sox are looking at Mike Moustakas as a fallback option in the event that Manny Machado signs elsewhere, writes Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The 30-year-old Moustakas is a fairly logical fallback option for either club should it miss out on Machado, though Moustakas is a less concrete upgrade over either club’s top incumbent options. Morosi notes that the Phils will likely try to trade Maikel Franco in the event that either Machado or Moustakas signs in Philadelphia, and presumably the ChiSox would shift Yolmer Sanchez into a utility role should it land either free-agent target. Morosi lists the Padres as a potential landing spot for Moustakas as well, though with a preexisting logjam of corner options in San Diego, that fit seems more difficult to envision without some additional roster shuffling by general manager A.J. Preller.
  • The Mets are among the teams to “have talks regarding Brian Dozier lately,” tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred, though there’s no indication that the Mets plan to make a serious pursuit of Dozier. Both the Nationals and Rockies have been linked to Dozier over the past couple of weeks, and Heyman notes that the market for the longtime Twins slugger is beginning to pick up a bit of steam. Regarding the link between the Mets and Dozier, it’s worth pointing out that Mike Puma of the New York Post reported just yesterday that the Mets don’t have much more money to spend this offseason, although they’ve spent very little since GM Brodie Van Wagenen publicly stated that they “still have some real money to spend.”
  • Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto was clear about his plan to make some further additions on the free agent market following the signing of Yusei Kikuchi, writes Greg Johns of MLB.com. “We’re likely to sign both Major and Minor League contracts,” said Dipoto. “I’d be shocked if we don’t sign at least one Major League reliever. And I’d be surprised — heavily surprised — if we didn’t sign one middle-of-the-field type stabilizer in the infield to provide protection and allow J.P. Crawford to transition at the appropriate pace.” There’s still a slew of free-agent relievers remaining on the open market (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link), and free agent shortstops are also in fairly abundant supply. Freddy Galvis, Jose Iglesias, Adeiny Hechavarria and Alcides Escobar are among the available infielders with strong defensive reputations.
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