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Knocking Down The Door: Hedges, Jimenez, Thompson, Vogelbach, Wilkerson

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This week’s installment of “Knocking Down The Door” includes the first player to repeat on the list, a slugging first baseman who is unlikely to break into the Majors with his current organization and a pitcher who could find himself in the starting rotation of a playoff contender two years after being purchased from an Independent League team.

Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres (Triple-A El Paso)

How do you make the “Knocking Down The Door” list after going 11-for-20 with five homers to earn last week’s honors? You go 14-for-29 with five more homers. Yes, Austin Hedges really did this. He ended up with 12 homers over a 14-start period.

Keep in mind that this is a guy known for his defense. Phrases like “he’d be valuable if he hit .220 with 10 homers because his defense is that good” are common when referring to the 23-year-old Hedges.

Still, this latest barrage of homers probably doesn’t affect his ETA much, if at all. As soon as general manager A.J. Preller gets a trade offer to his liking for Derek Norris, who has an OPS right around .800 over the past two months with nine doubles and ten home runs over, the “Austin Hedges” era will commence. Norris had a minor injury scare behind the plate last night when his elbow was hit by Brandon Drury’s swing, but Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweeted that x-rays were negative and Norris is day-to-day.

Padres Depth Chart

Joe Jimenez, RP, Detroit Tigers (Double-A Erie)

The Tigers finally have a reliable closer to shut down opponents in the 9th inning. Francisco Rodriguez is still getting the job done at 34 years of age with 23 saves in 25 chances. Finding a strong group of setup men to bridge the gap to him is a work in progress, however.

So can a 21-year-old who has pitched a total of 13 innings above A-ball be the solution?

Joe Jimenez is the rare prospect to be recognized as a “Future Closer” early in his career while still in the low minors. The Tigers have been patient with him, but as he gets closer to the majors, he’s becoming difficult to ignore.

The hard-throwing right-hander has completely dominated in 31 innings between Double-A and High-A, allowing just one earned run, 12 hits and nine walks while striking out 54 batters.

Jimenez might have the perfect mentor in Rodriguez, who debuted as a 20-year-old with the Angels late in the 2002 season and was an integral part of their World Series run as the setup man to Troy Percival. If the Tigers are to make a run at a playoff spot, they’ll likely need their own version of young “K-Rod”. Jimenez will need a cool nickname, though.

Tigers Depth Chart

Jake Thompson, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (Triple-A Lehigh Valley)

Shortly after Zach Eflin got the call to the Majors last month, I named his former Triple-A rotation-mate Ben Lively as a pitcher who was “Knocking Down The Door” and also mentioned Jake Thompson as a deserving candidate. Since, Lively has not been as effective. The 22-year-old Thompson, however, continues to roll.

In his last six starts, Thompson has averaged over seven innings per start while posting an 0.85 ERA with 10 walks and 24 strikeouts. He should get a chance at some point in 2016 as the Phillies try to limit innings for their young starters. A big league promotion could also happen as soon as general manager Matt Klentak finds a taker for Jeremy Hellickson, who has boosted his trade value with what has probably been his best season since he was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2011.

Phillies Depth Chart

Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Chicago Cubs (Triple-A Iowa)

We’ve known for years that the Cubs were flush with position player prospects. Many of them have reached the Majors, even if not as regulars at one position due to their defensive versatility. Javier Baez has played all over the infield. Willson Contreras is seeing time in left field in addition to his work behind the plate. Addison Russell had to play second base when he first arrived. Kris Bryant’s versatility has also allowed manager Joe Maddon to find at-bats for his young hitters.

This won’t be the case with Dan Vogelbach, though. He is limited to first base and blocked by Anthony Rizzo, who is also limited to first base.

When the 23-year-old Vogelbach, who has a .303/.416/.542 slash line in 80 games, finally beats down the door to the big leagues, he’ll likely be wearing a different uniform. With his stock on the rise, there should be plenty of teams asking about the left-handed hitting slugger in July.

Cubs Depth Chart

Aaron Wilkerson, SP, Boston Red Sox (Triple-A Pawtucket)

Coming into the 2016 season, I wouldn’t have placed Aaron Wilkerson any higher than 11th or 12th on the team’s starting pitching depth chart. And yet, we’re not even to the All-Star break and Sean O’Sullivan is part of their current four-man rotation and Wilkerson is probably next in line for a call-up.

It’s not uncommon for a team to be dipping so deep into its pitching depth given the rash of pitcher injuries throughout the league, but that’s not the case with the Red Sox. Aside from Brian Johnson, who had been sidelined until recently while undergoing treatment for anxiety, the Sox just have a lot of guys who have pitched themselves out of an opportunity. Clay Buchholz has been moved to the bullpen twice. Joe Kelly, who is on the Triple-A disabled list, is expected to return as a reliever in the second half. Eduardo Rodriguez was ineffective in the Majors. Henry Owens has been inconsistent in Triple-A. And so on.

This Wilkerson guy, though, has been a rock. In 92.1 innings between Triple-A and Double-A, the 27-year-old has allowed just 69 hits with 25 walks and 102 strikeouts. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in 12 of his 16 starts. In 10 of those 12, he’s allowed one run or less.

There is a possibility that the Red Sox could start the secondnd half with O’Sullivan, knuckleballer Steven Wright and Wilkerson, who went undrafted out of college in 2011 and was purchased from an Independent League in 2014, in their starting rotation behind David Price and Rick Porcello. Baseball is so predictable.

Red Sox Depth Chart

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

Padres Outright Hector Sanchez

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  • The Padres released righty Johnny Hellweg, Eddy adds. The towering righty had an unsuccessful trial run in the majors back in 2013. He had struggled with his command and been hit quite hard this year in the minors for the Padres.
  • After being designated recently, catcher Hector Sanchez has been outrighted by the Padres. The 26-year-old will head back to Triple-A, which is where he has spent most of his time in recent years. Sanchez does have 663 major league plate appearances over the last six seasons, with a .240/.276/.348 lifetime batting line.

Padres Discussed Fernando Rodney With Rangers

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  • The Rangers had discussions with the Padres about right-handed reliever Fernando Rodney before San Diego traded him to Miami, but Rosenthal opines that Texas needs a left-handed bullpen option more. In addition to their interest in relievers, the Rangers are also in the market for a young, high-end starter and would be willing to part with just about anyone on their roster if the right deal came along.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Padres To Sign 10 Top International Prospects

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The Padres have agreed to terms with ten top international prospects, many of them reported by MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter links: 1 2 3 4 5 6). The new Padres receiving at least $1M bonuses include Dominican shortstop Luis Almanzar ($4MM), Venezuelan shortstop Gabriel Arias ($1.9MM), Dominican outfielder Jeisson Rosario ($1.85MM), Mexican outfielder Tirso Ornelas ($1.5MM), Venezuelan shortstop Justin Lopez ($1.2MM) and Dominican shortstop Jordy Barley ($1M).

The Padres also made a number signings that appear to be smaller but still significant, nabbing Venezuelan catcher Alison Quintero ($830K, according to Sanchez), Dominican righty Jose Manuel Guzman ($400K, via Baseball America’s signing tracker), Dominican righty Michell Miliano and Venezuelan shortstop Tucupipa Marcano. All told, it looks like San Diego landed a huge haul.

All six players were ranked in MLB.com’s list of the top 30 international amateurs available. Here are a few notes from MLB’s scouting reports. Almanzar ranks No. 3 and has a good bat and the potential to have a well-rounded game, with solid defensive tools and a good arm. Baseball America’s subscriber-only scouting report praises his “calm, balanced” approach at the plate, noting that scouts are divided about whether he can stick at shortstop or will have to move to second or third. Via MLB.com, Arias (No. 5) could eventually hit for average and power and has good hands on defense, though he might eventually wind up at either third base or outfield. Baseball America describes Arias as a potential 15- to 20-homer hitter.

Rosario (No. 9) projects to be an everyday outfielder in the big leagues, perhaps with a good bat. Ornelas (No. 28) makes solid contact offensively; he could eventually play first base, although MLB.com also notes he could be a utility player, the kind of open-ended evaluation perhaps typical of a 16-year-old with an unknown future ahead. Lopez (No. 27) wins praise for his defense, although he also has an improving bat. Barley (No. 15) is very fast, with good defensive actions and a strong arm.

With these signings, the Padres obviously will blow well past their international bonus pool, which is $3,347,600. They figure to pay a 100 percent tax on their pool overage, and will not be able to sign any player for more than $300K in either of the next two signing seasons.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/1/2016

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Here are the day’s notable draft signings, with pre-draft scouting reports coming courtesy of Baseball America, ESPN.com, and MLB.com:

  • Infielder Nolan Jones has signed a $2.25MM deal with the Indians, Matt Mullin of the Philly Voice reports. He was taken with the 55th overall selection, which comes with a $1,159,200 bonus allocation; clearly, it took something extra to draw the high-schooler from his commitment to the University of Virginia. Jones rated as a top-twenty prospect on all of the draft boards linked to above, with the ESPN.com team placing him highest at No. 11. The consensus is that he’ll move to the third or second as a pro, with a good enough glove to be a useful fielder. The real draw, though, is a well-rounded offensive arsenal that includes projectable power.
  • The Nationals have agreed with compensation first-rounder Dane Dunning on a just-under-slot $2MM bonus, MLB.com’s Jim Callis tweets. That’s just $34,600 shy of the allocation for the 29th selection. Dunning landed outside of the top fifty on both the BA and MLB.com boards, but checked in at No. 25 on ESPN.com’s version. They credit the University of Florida righty with the potential to start despite spending his time in the pen on a crowded staff. He’ll need to polish his change to accompany a strong fastball-slider combination to reach his upside, though.
  • Fellow Gator Buddy Reed is heading to the Padres for an as-yet-unreported bonus, Callis tweets. Taken with the 48th pick, which came with a $1,317,800 allocation, Reed was further down the ESPN.com list but landed in the low-thirties for both MLB.com and Baseball America. Reed is said to be an excellent athlete, with questions remaining about his hitting ability at the next level.

Marlins Acquire Fernando Rodney

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Declaring their intentions to push for the postseason in 2016, the Marlins have struck a deal to acquire veteran right-hander Fernando Rodney from the Padres. Miami parted with interesting young righty Chris Paddack in the swap, which ESPN’s Keith Law first reported (Twitter links).

Jun 19, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher Fernando Rodney (56) pitches during the ninth inning against the Washington Nationals at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Rodney, 39, is in the midst of his latest rebound campaign, having posted a sparkling 0.31 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a career-best 59 percent ground-ball rate in 28 2/3 innings as San Diego’s closer. He’s saved 17 games for the Friars, but he may be ticketed for setup duties with the Fish, as Miami’s A.J. Ramos has had a strong season of his own. The 29-year-old Ramos has posted a 1.74 ERA and averaged 11 strikeouts per nine innings, although he’s also seen his control abandon him somewhat in 2016, as he’s averaging a somewhat troublesome 5.2 walks per nine innings.

Miami started from behind in the bullpen this year when Carter Capps went down to Tommy John surgery and Kyle Barraclough failed to win a job out of camp. Things have ticked up, with David Phelps emerging as a quality option and Barraclough returning with his two-true-outcomes approach (over half of the batters he faces strike out or walk). But the Fish also saw Bryan Morris go down mid-season, taking another set-up man out of the picture, and the overall unit has suffered from a lack of depth.

Adding Rodney will not only infuse another high-octane arm at the back of the pen, but will increase the quality of the pitching appearing in other situations. That’s not to say that things are perfect now; in particular, adding a quality lefty would appear to make sense. And while the team is largely set on the offensive side of the fence, but has long been said to have interest in a starter or two.

[Related: Updated Marlins Depth Chart]

The Marlins typically operate with a notoriously slim payroll, but Rodney’s contract is affordable enough that virtually any club could’ve fit him onto its ledger. He’s earning a $1.6MM base salary this season, and his contract includes a club option for the 2017 campaign that comes with a $2MM buyout. The pact does contain incentives that could bring the value of both his 2016 salary and his 2017 option to $7MM, though a large portion of those incentives are tied to games finished.

Thus far, Rodney has locked in an additional $250K for completing 20 games, and he’d earn that same amount again upon reaching 30 games finished. Rodney would earn $500K for reaching 40 games finished and an additional $500K for every five games finished beyond that point through 65 games, but if he’s working in a setup capacity, his chances to close out games will naturally be limited. Rodney also earns $500K for appearing in his 40th, 50th and 60th games of the season.

All told, it seems likely to expect that Rodney will earn at least $2.85MM this season (20 games finished, plus appearing in at least 50 games), and the value of his conditional club option will increase to match that sum. Even if Rodney clears $3MM in 2016 earnings, that’d still be a more than reasonable price based on his 2016 output to date.

In order to gain the low cost and relatively high-upside reliever, Miami had to part with a fairly intriguing prospect. Paddack was just an eighth-round pick in the 2015 draft, but he has been nothing short of remarkable at the Class A level in 2016. Over 28 1/3 innings, he has allowed a ridiculous nine hits and carries a brilliant 0.95 ERA with a 48-to-2 K/BB ratio. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis rate him the 17th-best prospect on an poorly-regarded Marlins farm — the same offseason ranking he received from Baseball America — but it seems fair to say that his star is on the rise.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Considered Jose Reyes

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  • The Padres “at least took a look” at Jose Reyes before he signed with the Mets, per Heyman. It isn’t clear what sort of opportunity San Diego was interested in offering, but it’s not surprising to hear that the organization is looking for low-cost ways to seek value.

NL West Notes: Schumaker, Urias, Dodgers, Arroyo

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The Padres have brought back Skip Schumaker … but he won’t be wearing a uniform. As MLB.com’s Carlos Collazo writes, the recently-retired utilityman will join the organization as an assistant to baseball operations and player development. Schumaker was in Spring Training with San Diego this season before he decided to call it a career midway through camp. Clearly, though, the longtime big leaguer made a positive impression on his final organization, leading to his new role with the team. Skipper Andy Green says that Schumaker will be “making his rounds in the organization, offering insight at different levels.”

A few more notes from the NL West…

  • Julio Urias will likely stick in the Dodgers rotation through the All-Star break, manager Dave Roberts told reporters including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (links to Twitter). With the club struggling to bridge the gap to its injured starters — particularly with Clayton Kershaw now questionable for his next outing — Roberts acknowledged that a near-term deal for a starter is a “possibility.” That seems to match with the earlier report suggesting a possible match with the Rays on Erasmo Ramirez.
  • The Dodgers have placed infielder Enrique Hernandez on the DL with inflammation in his rib cage, as Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times writes. That opens a roster spot for the promotion of righty Brock Stewart — who Jason Martinez of MLBTR/Roster Resource recently profiled. Stewart battled through some early struggles but logged five innings in his debut outing. (You can check out the new-look depth chart for Los Angeles right here.) More troublesome for the Dodgers, however, is the fact that Joc Pederson may need to join Hernandez on the disabled list, per McCullough. Pederson injured his right shoulder when he crashed into the wall making a spectacular grab the other night, and while initial x-rays revealed no broken bones, the outfielder told the media that he could scarcely lift his arm yesterday, noting that he had difficulty even getting dressed or putting on deodorant due to the lack of mobility.
  • Speaking of Stewart, Fangraphs’ David Laurila writes that he spoke to the infielder-turned-pitcher last summer about how pitching was never the avenue via which he expected to enter professional baseball. However, struggles at the plate during his junior season at Illinois State led a coach to suggest to him that his future may be on the mound, and his father (a pro scout for the Rays), agreed. Last summer, Stewart explained to Laurila that his velocity sat 90-92 and touched 94 mph, and described his slider rather timidly. Now, Laurila notes, Stewart tops out at 96 mph and has a much-improved slider, which have helped him reach the Majors with the Dodgers despite the fact that he opened the season at Class-A Advanced and had never pitched at a higher level.
  • Those clamoring for the Giants to promote top prospect Christian Arroyo will have to wait, as Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. “You won’t see Arroyo,” GM Bobby Evans said earlier when asked about the possibility of Arroyo replacing the injured Joe Panik, and indeed the club proceeded to add Ruben Tejada instead of the youngster. It certainly seems as if San Francisco doesn’t feel that the 21-year-old is fully prepared for the majors, as Super Two considerations aren’t an issue at his stage of the year. Arroyo is only now in his first stint at Double-A, and isn’t exactly dominating the level with a .279/.321/.390 slash. Arroyo entered the year rated as Baseball America’s No. 62 overall prospect and the No. 82 prospect over at MLB.com.

International Notes: July 2 Preview, Maitan, Braves, Padres

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Baseball America’s Ben Badler has compiled scouting reports on the Top 50 prospects on the upcoming July 2 international market, in addition to providing projected landing spots for each player on the list. The exhaustive report on the international scene requires a BA subscription, but it’s highly recommended for those who wish to dive headfirst into learning about the upcoming glut of talent that will be injected into most clubs’ minor league pipelines. Those looking to learn more about the process can also check out this primer from Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, who also provides a ranking of the class (with further explanation here).

Here are just a few highlights from Badler’s excellent work on the topic, which deserves a full read:

  • Badler takes a particularly close look at top prospect Kevin Maitan, who he says may be a better prospect than Miguel Sano was as a teenager. The link comes with a lengthy and detailed scouting report, including discussion of the question whether Maitain will be able to stay at shortstop for the long run. Scouts are divided on the likelihood, but all seem to agree it’s at least a plausible outcome.
  • Maitan has long been said to be heading for the Braves, and we’ve yet to hear anything to change that expectation. Atlanta has lined up a big batch of spending, but Badler provides a bit of context for just how large: he says it “should look comparable to what the Yankees did in 2014-15.” (You can refresh yourself on New York’s shock and awe campaign here.)
  • The Padres appear headed in that direction, too, as Badler says that a $30MM to $35MM spend might be their floor. In addition to big activity on the Cuban market, San Diego is in line to add eight of the top fifty available players. As for the Nationals, who are also believed to be pacing the market in spending, it might not be quite that dramatic. But Washington could still come away with three of the fifteen best prospecs on the market.
  •  The Astros, too, seem ready to drop some big cash — including a $3.5MM bonus for Cuban shortstop Anibal Sierra. Houston is eyeing five of the top fifty names on Badler’s list, he notes. One player that could be ticketed for the ’Stros is fifth overall prospect Freudis Nova.
  • Nova had been connected to the Marlins before failing a PED test. Now, Badler explains, Miami has a big chunk of pool availability and little in the way of commitments. The club could deal that away or see if it can find a nice price on the Cuban market.
  • It also remains to be seen what the Reds will do, but Badler explains that things could go in either of two directions. Cinci could trade for some added bonus pool space to add Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez and a few smaller signings without hitting the penalty. Or, the team could enter the broader Cuban market and blow past its limits.
  • The White Sox are expected to land slugging prospect Josue Guerrero — who, yes, is a part of the famous family. Despite being quiet in recent years, the Athletics are in position to add some talent, including George Bell, whose father (same name) was a quality big leaguer.
  • The Brewers aren’t believed to have any seven-figure bonuses lined up, but could still add a high number of interesting players with the fifth-highest spending availability in the game. Likewise, the Phillies are expected to spread their cash.
  • Of course, not every team will have the opportunity to spend lavishly this period; the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Royals and Blue Jays are each prohibited from spending more than $300K on international amateurs after incurring maximum penalties, though that doesn’t mean those organizations don’t have a chance to find some talent.

Jon Jay Suffers Broken Forearm

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11:09pm: Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune writes that Jay will be re-evaluated three weeks from now and will be on the shelf for between four and six weeks total. A four- or even nearly a five-week absence could have Jay back just prior to this season’s Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, but there’s also a very real possibility that he’ll be out beyond the deadline. Jay won’t require surgery, and the injury is described by manager Andy Green as a “slight” fracture of the radius in Jay’s forearm. Addressing the length of time between Jay being struck by the pitch and today’s diagnosis, Green offered the following explanation:

“He got hit on the ulna (bone), and it banged into the radius and actually got the radius. So it’s not the bone that actually got hit. The swelling was between those two bones, so you couldn’t get a clear picture of it. That’s what the X-ray wasn’t able to reveal.”

12:45pm: Padres outfielder Jon Jay has suffered a broken forearm, Darren Smith of Mighty1090.com reports on Twitter. He’ll be placed on the 15-day DL, with Alex Dickerson brought up to take his place on the active roster.

[Related: Updated Padres Depth Chart]

Jay was injured when he was struck by a fastball from Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez a week back. He has not played since, but initial x-rays were negative, leading to hopes that Jay would not even require a DL stint. The prognosis remains unknown at present, but it certainly seems the injury is much more serious than had been anticipated.

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While it’s wise not to jump to conclusions, this injury seems as if it could well take Jay out of the running as a trade piece this summer. With a reasonable $6.225MM salary, and no obligations after the year, he had seemed like a rather likely player to be dealt; indeed, he ranked 7th on MLBTR’s most recent list of the top trade candidates around the game.

Since coming over in exchange for infielder Jedd Gyorko over the winter, Jay had been a bright spot for a struggling Padres ballclub. Over 291 plate appearances, the 31-year-old was carrying a .296/.345/.407 batting line with two home runs and a league-leading 24 doubles. Defensive metrics were a bit down on his work in center in a short sample, but Jay has consistently rated as a quality up-the-middle defender over his career.

That strong start not only made Jay an interesting target for teams needing another solid outfielder, but seemed likely to set him up for a solid free agent payday after the season. He was coming off of a subpar, injury-marred 2015 season, but had returned to the solidly above-average offensive production that he has carried for most all of his time in the majors.

From the team’s perspective, losing Jay is the latest blow to its stock of trade assets. Two other prime candidates — righties Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner — both remain on the DL as the August 1st deadline draws near.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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