MLBTR Poll: The Case Of Kevin Pillar
In MLBTR’s recent projection of arbitration salaries for the 2020 season, Giants outfielder Kevin Pillar was penciled in to receive a $9.7MM salary award in his third and final trip through arbitration this offseason.
A cursory glance at Pillar’s stats would render this to be a reasonable projection–and an eminently manageable sum for Farhan Zaidi’s front office in San Francisco. After all, Pillar hit 21 home runs in 2019, after an early April trade from Toronto deposited the veteran Pillar into the Giants’ everyday lineup. Over 161 games, the outfielder would come to lead the team not just in homers, but also in RBIs, stolen bases, and runs scored, all while playing respectable defense in center and right field.
Then again, the operative word there was “cursory”–a deeper look at Pillar’s numbers indicate his effective value may not match his arbitrational value.
While Pillar did accrue some nice counting stats in 2019, his 2.8% walk rate in 2019 resulted in a ghastly .287 OBP. Weighted metrics suggest he was a squarely sub-average offensive performer overall (85 wRC+ in 645 plate appearances); then again, Pillar’s never been known as a plus performer at the plate, as his 86 career wRC+ would suggest. Though the California product does still offer excess value on the bases (6.0 Fangraphs BSR recording in 2019), it’s not as if the club can place a premium on his defense: his 0.3 UZR and -3 DRS marks last year were all-too-typical for an outfielder on the wrong side of the 30-year age marker.
Giving due credit to intangible considerations like veteran leadership and Pillar’s general reputation as a good teammate, Zaidi’s FO is ultimately looking at a slightly sub-par-hitting outfielder who, given a well-rounded game, slates as a roughly average regular. Just how much such a player is worth is, as always, a question of what the club’s recourse would be if they ultimately decided to go in another direction.
Looking to the free agent market, the Giants are unlikely to find an appealing host of options. Starling Marte figures to have his $11.5MM club option exercised, Brett Gardner doesn’t project as much of an upgrade from a performance or value standpoint, and, after that, the club will likely find a charming menagerie of former full-time players like Jon Jay, Billy Hamilton, and Juan Lagares. Not exactly a group to build a season-ticket sales pitch around.
On the trade front, Zaidi could enter the Mookie Betts sweepstakes–except for the fact that such a one-year move would hinge on the belief that the Giants are ready to contend in 2020, which would be hard to support after a 77-85 season. If the World Series-bound Nationals are intent on making marginal moves, it’s conceivable that a player like Michael A. Taylor could be pried away, but Taylor might be best suited for his current part-time, defense-and-speed role until he’s proven otherwise. Aside from that, “average” center fielders are not as plentiful as one might assume.
Then again, there is a third option, courtesy of Kerry Crowley of The Mercury News–San Francisco could try to hammer out an extension with a slightly lower AAV (link). Crowley suggests offering a one-year deal with a club option for 2021 totaling a potential $13MM-$15MM in value. This option, admittedly, does make some sense as a half-measure approach. The Giants, arguably the prestige org of the new millennium, could continue to run out a serviceable center fielder while it continues to try to identify the building blocks for its next championship team. No faded former starters, no overmatched prospects forced into full-time duty, no crippling long-term commitment.
So, on the balance, which route should Zaidi take this offseason in regard to the veteran Pillar? (Poll link for app users.)
What should the Giants do with Kevin Pillar this offseason?
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Bring Pillar back for one more season. 40% (3,056)
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Arrange a reasonable extension. 32% (2,464)
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Non-tender, fill position via free agency or trade. 28% (2,114)
Total votes: 7,634
AL Central Notes: Matheny, Twins, Indians
October 16 is an important date in the histories of the Royals and White Sox, as the two teams each clinched the American League pennant on this day back in 1985 and 2005, respectively. Kansas City recorded a 6-2 win over the Blue Jays in Game Seven of the 1985 ALCS, completing the comeback after being down 3-1 in the series and winning the second AL pennant in club history. The Royals went on to take the further step of capturing the franchise’s first World Series that came October, topping the Cardinals in another seven-game set. The 2005 ALCS was also Chicago’s first step en route to a World Series title, as the White Sox beat the Angels in five games before sweeping the Astros in the Fall Classic. 2005 ended a pair of long droughts for the White Sox, as it marked the club’s first pennant since 1959 and its first World Series title since 1917.
News from around the AL Central…
- The Giants, Padres, and Mets have all shown some interest in Royals special advisor Mike Matheny as a possible candidate to fill their managerial vacancies, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. Matheny hasn’t been linked to any of those clubs for an interview, however, and “word has it that the Padres are going another direction,” Flanagan writes. [UPDATE: Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Giants hadn’t spoken to Matheny as of three days ago.] All three of those teams have already amassed a long list of candidates for interviews, as you can follow via MLB Trade Rumors’ central post for the many rumors and reports floating around concerning the offseason managerial carousel. Matheny has also been widely tabbed as the leading contender to be the Royals’ next manager, and while Flanagan notes that Matheny’s hiring is “not as certain as it once was,” the former Cardinals skipper still appears to be “the odds-on favorite” for the job.
- Byron Buxton stands out as a prime extension candidate this offseason, MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park opines, looking at the Twins‘ model in extending Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco last spring. Both of those players were coming off solid but not surefire breakout seasons (Polanco’s year was also marred by an 80-game PED suspension) in 2018, while Buxton is similarly coming off something of a mixed 2019 campaign. He hit .262/.314/.513 with 10 homers in 295 PA while contributing excellent baserunning and center field defense, though Buxton’s year was marred by injuries, including season-ending shoulder surgery that could cause him to miss the start of Spring Training. With this health uncertainty in mind, Buxton could have interest in locking in a long-term payday, though he would be foregoing potentially big arbitration raises in both 2021 and 2022 (Buxton has three arb years left as a Super Two player). Buxton has also achieved some financial security already, with close to $9.5MM in career earnings that includes his $6MM signing bonus as the second overall pick of the 2021 draft. Beyond Buxton, Park figures Jose Berrios and Miguel Sano are also extension candidates.
- Assuming the Indians are no longer cutting costs, the Athletic’s Zack Meisel (subscription required) estimates that the Tribe could have roughly $17MM to spend this winter. The current payroll sits at $102MM, as Meisel calculates based on current salaries, some minimum contracts, and MLBTR’s projected salaries for Cleveland’s arbitration-eligible players (with a few non-tender candidates not counted). That leaves the Tribe short of their $119.5MM Opening Day payroll from 2019, giving the club some extra cash to pursue needed help in the infield and outfield. Meisel also guesses the Indians could look into some future payroll certainty by discussing extensions with Mike Clevinger and/or Shane Bieber.
Managerial/Coaching Notes: Mets, Giants, Bucs, Brewers
Let’s round up the latest managerial and coaching news from around the majors…
- The Mets’ previously reported managerial interview with their quality control coach, Luis Rojas, has taken place, Tim Healey of Newsday tweets. They’ve now discussed (or will discuss) the position with at least six candidates, with Rojas, Mike Bell, Carlos Beltran, Joe Girardi, Eduardo Perez and Derek Shelton comprising the group of known possibilities. Meanwhile, although longtime manager Buck Showalter has expressed interest in the role, his chances have “stalled,” Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. The Mets have some concerns about the way Showalter interacted with front offices during his previous runs as a manager, according to Puma.
- Add Cubs first base coach Will Venable to the list of managerial possibilities for the Giants, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. The Giants are interested in Venable, though it’s not clear whether they’ll interview him. A former major league outfielder, the 36-year-old Venable finished his career in 2016 as a member of the Dodgers, whose general manager was Farhan Zaidi. He’s now the president of baseball operations for the Giants.
- The Pirates have reached out to Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay to gauge his interest in managing the Bucs, Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette relays. The 43-year-old Kotsay was a major league outfielder/first baseman from 1997-2013 who has since worked in coaching and front office roles between San Diego and Oakland. He interviewed for San Francisco’s managerial opening last week.
- The Brewers are parting with first base coach/infield coach Carlos Subero, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Subero, the lone member of manager Craig Counsell’s staff who won’t return in 2020, spent four seasons as a major league coach with the Brewers. He previously managed in the minors with the organization.
Phillies To Interview Buck Showalter, Joe Girardi, Dusty Baker
Oct. 14: Showalter and Girardi are set to interview with the Phillies today, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. Baker’s interview will take place later this week.
Oct. 13: With the Phillies beginning the interview process for their next manager, the team is set to interview Dusty Baker for the vacant position later this week, per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Baker is currently serving as a special adviser to the Giants, who have granted Philadelphia permission to meet with Baker.
If the Phillies are seeking a manager with big-league experience, Baker surely fits the bill. At age 70, he comes with plenty of history to his name, having managed for 22 years and compiling a 1863-1636 overall record. If the Phillies were frustrated with Kapler’s approach to the game, Baker essentially represents his exact opposite.
He fits the trend of the names that have surfaced in the Phillies’ search for Kapler’s replacement. Between Buck Showalter, Joe Girardi, and now Baker, there’s a distinct pattern of traits that the organization seems to prioritize; namely, someone who can bridge the gap between “analytics and tradition.” That’s a reversal of the prevailing trend in Major League Baseball towards young, cheap, and inexperienced managers. And for a Phillies team that finds itself firmly in win-now mode, the list of candidates sends a clear message that owner John Middleton believes a seasoned managerial veteran can help his club secure a World Series win in the very near future.
For Baker, his Phillies interview will mark his first connection to an MLB managing job since the Nationals fired him after the 2017 season.
He’s previously managed the Giants, Cubs, Reds, and Nationals, winning an NL pennant in San Francisco, where he was thrice named Manager of the Year. He’s guided his teams to the postseason nine times throughout his career. The one thing missing from his timeless managerial career: a World Series title. With that in mind, there’s no doubt that Baker and the Phillies will be united in that goal.
Even so, it’s fair to question just how much interest Baker himself has in returning to an MLB dugout. He’s spent the last two seasons working as a special adviser in the Giants front office, and doesn’t seem to particularly miss the stress of handling a club’s day-to-day operations. And after more than 40 years spent as a player and manager, it would certainly be understandable if Baker was content to stay out of the business for good.
Giants To Interview Gabe Kapler
The Giants are set to interview ex-Phillies manager Gabe Kapler for their vacant managerial position, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Add Kapler’s name to a growing list of known candidates for the San Francisco job, which includes internal options Ron Wotus and Hensley Meulens, as well as Royals quality control/catching coach Pedro Grifol and Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay.
Among that group, it’s notable that Kapler is the only candidate with big-league managerial experience. Even so, Kapler has managed just two years at the MLB level and just got out of his first managing gig. That’s not to say that he’s unfit to return to an MLB dugout; it’s not uncommon for first-time managers to experience growing pains before finding success in their second crack at the job.
Of course, Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi is familiar with Kapler from their time together in the Dodgers organization, where Kapler served as the director of player development, with Heyman going as far as to say that Zaidi “loves” Kapler.
The 44-year-old Kapler has certainly come under his fair share of scrutiny after two disappointing seasons in Philadelphia. A pair of September collapses have seen his teams come up short of the postseason, which, coupled with rising expectations for the team, ultimately spelled his demise. However, Kapler’s intent on managing again, and there’s reason to believe that he could draw significant interest. He reportedly received a glowing recommendation from Zaidi himself while interviewing for the Phillies job, while Phillies GM Matt Klentak expressed confidence in Kapler before ownership overruled him.
While Kapler could be viewed as a favorite for the position, there’s still plenty of ground to cover before a match is made. Reports indicate that Zaidi intends to interview more than a half-dozen candidates before arriving at a decision. Still, Kapler is certainly a name to watch in the Giants’ developing search for Bruce Bochy’s successor.
Giants Interview Pedro Grifol
The Giants have a fourth known candidate in their search for a replacement for iconic manager Bruce Bochy. The club interviewed Royals quality control and catching coach Pedro Grifol for the position on Thursday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The Giants have also shown interest in two of their own assistants – bench coach Hensley Meulens and third base coach Ron Wotus – as well as Athletics quality control Mark Kotsay.
Of the eight teams looking for managers, the Giants are the second who are known to be considering Grifol, a former minor league catcher. The soon-to-be 50-year-old is also on a list of possibilities for the Royals, with whom he has worked in a few roles since 2013. He previously garnered professional managerial experience with the Seattle organization from 2003-05 and in ’12.
If there’s an obvious common theme among the Giants’ group of candidates, it’s that not a single one of them has managed at the big league level. But plenty of teams have turned to novices in recent years, including three of the remaining four clubs in the playoffs (the Nationals, Cardinals and Yankees), and the Giants may be the next to do so. Of course, with president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi having said he’ll interview six to eight individuals for the role, there could still be an experienced option(s) on San Francisco’s radar.
Coaching Notes: Giants, A’s, Bucs, Rangers, Mets
The Giants interviewed Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay for their vacant managerial position Monday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle relays (Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the Giants’ interest in Kotsay last week). Although Kotsay’s the only known outside candidate the Giants have interviewed thus far — it appears bench coach Hensley Meulens has already had a sit-down — president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has indicated they’ll likely speak with to six eight individuals in their search to replace Bruce Bochy. Kotsay and Zaidi entered the process with at least some familiarity, as the latter was a member of the A’s front office when the former was an outfielder with the club from 2004-07.
- Little is known about where the Pirates stand in their hunt for a manager, but they are at least “wide open” in their approach, according to Heyman. Pirates special assistant of baseball operations Jeff Banister and Twins bench coach Derek Shelton have been connected to the job more than any other potential candidates, Heyman notes. However, it’s unclear whether the Bucs have interviewed either of them or anyone else since they fired Clint Hurdle on Sept. 29.
- The Rangers are set to hire Cody Atkinson as their new minor league hitting coordinator, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. He’ll take over for Josue Perez, who filled the role for five years and will likely move to a different position with the Rangers, per Grant. Atkinson is just 30 years old, though he does bring an impressive resume to the table. He operates a Seattle-based hitting academy, worked as the Reds’ run production and hitting assessment coach for the past year, and comes with a background in kinesiology. His hiring is an example of the Rangers putting “more emphasis on retooling hitters’ swings using technology and biomechanics as aides,” Grant writes.
- The Mets and minor league field coordinator Kevin Morgan are parting ways, Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports tweets. New York offered to reassign Morgan, but he made the decision to exit, according to Ehalt. It was a long run with the Mets for Morgan, a minor league infielder with the organization from 1994-97 who began working in front office and coaching roles for the club in ’98.
MLBTR Poll: Most Desirable Managerial Opening?
The Phillies fired Gabe Kapler on Thursday, leaving them as one of eight major league teams searching for a manager at the moment. Fellow National League clubs in the Padres, Mets, Pirates, Giants and Cubs are in the same position, while the Royals and Angels are seeking new skippers in the AL. The question is: Which team has the most desirable job?
For starters, we can probably rule out the Pirates and Royals. Both teams have been hamstrung by low payrolls, with notoriously penny-pinching ownership holding back Pittsburgh and Kansas City (a team whose ownership is in transition) coming off its second 100-loss season in a row. Neither team looks as if it’ll contend in the immediate future, and the same may apply to the Giants, though they are a club with big-spending capabilities and promising president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi at the helm. On the other hand, the rest of the league’s manager-needy organizations look to have decent odds of pushing for relevance sooner than later.
The Phillies just wrapped up their eighth consecutive non-playoff season, but with 81 wins, they weren’t exactly a basement dweller. Kapler’s successor will be taking over a team with big-time talent on hand (Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola, to name a few) and the spending power to amply address its most obvious weaknesses this offseason.
Like the Phillies, the Padres have been suffering for too long. They’re fresh off their 13th straight year without a playoff berth, but they’re another team with front-line talent (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Chris Paddack). Moreover, the Padres remain loaded on the farm, and owner Ron Fowler has made it clear it’s time to start winning in 2020.
The Mets also have no shortage of top-line players, including ace Jacob deGrom and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso. However, their managerial position is probably the most pressure-packed of all the openings. Previous skipper Mickey Callaway oversaw an 86-win team in 2019, but he dealt with scrutiny from the media, fans and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen from start to finish.
There’s also high expectations in Chicago, where even an exemplary record over five years wasn’t enough to keep Joe Maddon employed. The Cubs and president of baseball ops Theo Epstein gave Maddon the boot even though he helped them break a 108-year World Series drought in 2016 and led them to an overall 471-339 regular-season record with four playoff berths during his reign. But the Cubs, another financially well-off club with enviable high-end talent (Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Hendricks, for example), saw enough of Maddon after a late-season collapse and a non-playoff showing in 2019. Maddon’s replacement will be inheriting an 84-win team that will have playoff expectations for next year.
The Angels, who seem like the favorites to land Maddon next, are another franchise with a sense of urgency to win in 2020. Despite the presence of the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, they haven’t gone to the playoffs since 2014. The Halos haven’t even won a playoff game since October 2009, just a few months after drafting Trout. With fourth-year general manager Billy Eppler set to enter the last season of his contract in 2020, it’s imperative for him to get this hire right (his previous selection of Brad Ausmus didn’t work out). Otherwise, he and the Angels’ next manager could be out a year from now.
That’s a basic overview of where the sport’s manager-less teams stand heading into the offseason. There are more factors you could consider, of course. Which job looks the most appealing to you?
(Poll link for app users)
Most desirable managerial opening?
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Cubs 26% (4,655)
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Padres 19% (3,458)
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Phillies 17% (3,034)
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Angels 13% (2,391)
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Mets 11% (1,967)
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Giants 9% (1,680)
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Royals 3% (561)
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Pirates 3% (505)
Total votes: 18,251
Giants Sign Drew Robinson To Minors Contract
The Giants have signed utilityman Drew Robinson to a minor league deal, as per Baseball America’s Kegan Lowe. Robinson became a free agent after being released by the Cardinals in August.
Robinson appeared in only five MLB games for the Cards in 2019, a sharp dropoff after playing in 95 games (246 PA) as a bench player for the Rangers in 2017-18. Originally a fourth-round pick for the Rangers in the 2010 draft, Robinson has a .202/.296/.369 slash line over his 253 career Major League plate appearances, but has hit a much more respectable .252/.362/.438 over 3686 PA at the minor league level.
Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi made a habit of picking up depth pieces in his first full year running San Francisco’s front office, and Robinson becomes the latest to get a look from the team. The 27-year-old brings a lot of defensive versatility, as he started multiple games at six different positions (second base, third base, left field, right field, shortstop, and primarily center field) in 2019, and also has experience as a first baseman.
Giants’ Joey Bart Suffers Fractured Thumb In Arizona Fall League
8:40pm: The Giants further announced that Bart has been diagnosed with a non-displaced fracture that will not require surgery. He’s expected to be recovered within four to six weeks. That’ll put an end to his AFL run but should allow him a mostly normal offseason.
5:40pm: Top Giants catching prospect Joey Bart suffered a fractured right thumb during last night’s Arizona Fall League game, the Giants announced Wednesday. The injury came during Bart’s eighth game in the AFL, where he’d batted .400/.559/.920 with four homers and a double in 34 trips to the plate.
There’s no indication that the injury will impact Bart’s readiness for the 2020 season. He’s meeting with a specialist today, per the team’s announcement. But the broken thumb certainly figures to put an end to bring an early end to Bart’s 2019 Fall League stint and comes on the heels of a season that was shortened by a fracture in his other hand. Bart sustained a broken left hand back in April and missed nearly two months as a result of the injury. Both fractures were sustained when he was hit by a pitch.
The two hand fractures notwithstanding, the 2019 campaign has to be considered a success for Bart, whom the Giants selected with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft. The former Georgia Tech star reached Double-A as a 22-year-old, closing out the season with 22 games at that level and hitting .316/.368/.544. In a combined 338 plate appearances between Class-A Advanced and Double-A — both pitcher-friendly settings — Bart slashed .278/.328/.495 with 16 homers, 14 doubles and three triples.
Bart ranks prominently on most top prospect lists at this point, sitting 19th on MLB.com’s midseason update, 15th on Baseball America’s Oct. 1 update and 17th on Fangraphs’ latest rankings. A promotion late in the 2020 season doesn’t seem out of the question, though this season’s injuries have perhaps slowed his trajectory a bit. A 2021 arrival at the MLB level might be a safer bet. That would mark the final season of franchise icon Buster Posey‘s nine-year, $167MM contract and present Bart with ample opportunity to learn from one of the best backstops in recent memory.