- Returning to the Soto trade talks, San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said the Soto field was comprised of 10 teams with three finalists. The San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea reports that the Giants were one of the initial 10, though they didn’t make the cut for two central reasons — the Padres preferred the Yankees’ pitching-heavy trade package, and the Padres weren’t keen on moving Soto to a division rival. San Francisco does have a solid batch of young pitching depth of its own, and those arms have naturally drawn interest from other teams given the league-wide demand for pitching. This would seemingly help the Giants’ chances of landing some high-end hitting talent, depending on how much of that depth San Francisco is willing to surrender.
Giants Rumors
Roki Sasaki Asks To Be Posted For MLB Teams, Chiba Lotte Marines Likely To Deny Request
Japanese pitching sensation Roki Sasaki has asked the Chiba Lotte Marines to make him available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter, according to Sponichi Annex (Japanese language link from Yahoo Japan). Nippon Professional Baseball teams have until December 15 to post players for possible moves to Major League Baseball in advance of the 2024 season, and this brief timeline alone makes it highly unlikely that the Marines will grant Sasaki’s request.
In the broader picture, it is quite rare for Japanese players to ask to be posted so early in their careers, as the 22-year-old Sasaki has only played three seasons in NPB. As per MLB’s posting rules, players must be at least 25 years and have at least six pro seasons under their belt in order to receive anything more than a minor league contract. Big league clubs could also only pay such players money from their international bonus pools, and with this year’s international signing window yet to open on January 15, teams have long since committed the bulk of their pool money to prospects. Shohei Ohtani faced these restrictions when he came to the majors at age 23, and thus received only a minors deal from the Angels and a $2.3MM signing bonus.
Jorge Castillo and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times profiled Sasaki last month, noting that Sasaki’s contract with the Marines “is thought to” have an escape clause that would allow the righty to leave for the majors at any time. Ohtani enacted such a clause in 2017, though Ohtani had played five seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.
The Sponichi article didn’t give any mention about such a contractual opt-out, though the unusual timing of Sasaki’s request perhaps does indicate that he has some leverage to take this rather immediate plunge into the posting system. Castillo/Harris wrote that the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants have all “intensely scouted” Sasaki in Japan, and at one point, the Dodgers thought that Sasaki would be available as early as this offseason.
Sasaki wouldn’t achieve full free agency until he has nine seasons of service time, and in general, NPB teams don’t post players early until they’re a year or two away from that nine-season threshold. For instance, Yoshinobu Yamamoto played seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes before the Buffaloes agreed to post the star righty this winter, and the 25-year-old Yamamoto now looks poised to command a contract well north of $200MM.
Yamamoto’s combination of youth and skill has all but guaranteed a huge contract, yet even his number could pale in comparison to what Sasaki might receive. Though he would seemingly be limited to a minor league deal at first and would have to wait at least a few seasons into an MLB career to sign an extension without drawing attention from the league office, that might be a risk Sasaki is willing to take given the potential huge payoff down the road. In the interim, he won’t be lacking in compensation, since a jump to the majors would surely boost his endorsement appeal.
Over 283 2/3 career innings with the Marines, Sasaki has a 2.00 ERA, 34.4% strikeout rate, and 5.12% walk rate, and these video-game numbers are only part of Sasaki’s burgeoning legend. His fastball routinely sits in the upper-90s and has topped out at 102.5mph, and his forkball is arguably an even deadlier pitch. Sasaki’s pitched well for Japan’s gold medal-winning team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and he has two NPB All-Star appearances on his resume. Most famously, Sasaki came within an inning of back-to-back perfect games — he tossed a perfecto against the Buffaloes in April 2022 that saw him record 13 straight strikeouts amidst an NPB-record 19 K’s in his masterpiece of a start. Incredibly, Sasaki followed that up with eight perfect innings in his next outing before being pulled before the start of the ninth due to pitch count reasons (102 pitches).
The Marines’ desire to preserve Sasaki’s arm and overall health has been a main storyline of his career. He was the first overall pick of the 2019 NPB draft, yet he didn’t make his debut with Chiba until May 2021, as the team wanted to ease his development into pro ball. Sasaki missed about six weeks this season due to an oblique strain, limiting him to 91 innings for the 2023 campaign. As MLB’s Dai Takegami Podziewski noted in his last installment of the NPB Players To Watch feature, durability is basically the last question Sasaki has to really answer about his long-term potential, and the righty’s 6’4″, 203-pound frame would suggest that he is perhaps built to hold up under the larger workloads faced by Major League pitchers.
While it remains to be seen if Sasaki will actually be able to enter the 2023-24 free agent market, it would obviously be a game changer in a winter that already has a lot of high-end starters still on the board. If nothing else, Sasaki’s request might well be setting a stage for a posting next winter, when he could join another loaded pitching class that might include Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and possibly even Gerrit Cole if the Yankees don’t enact a contract clause preventing Cole from opting out.
Giants Agree To Deals With Daulton Jefferies, Yoshi Tsutsugo
Daulton Jefferies is in agreement on a deal with the Giants, the right-hander announced this morning. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle confirms it’s a minor league pact with an invitation to Spring Training. Additionally, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that first baseman Yoshi Tsutsugo has agreed to terms with San Francisco (X link). It seems fair to presume that’s also a minor league deal with a non-roster invite.
Jefferies sticks in the Bay Area. A Berkeley product, he was selected by the A’s with the 37th pick of the 2016 draft. Jefferies made his big league debut with one appearance in 2020. He pitched five times the following season and on eight occasions in 2022. In 14 career outings (10 starts), he has worked to a 5.75 ERA through 56 1/3 frames. He has a middling 15.2% strikeout rate while walking fewer than 6% of opponents.
The 28-year-old has lost most of the last two seasons to injury. He underwent thoracic outlet surgery in June 2022 before requiring a Tommy John procedure that September. Oakland ran him through waivers and off the 40-man roster last offseason. Jefferies missed all of last season and elected minor league free agency at year’s end. He’ll get a look in camp with former Oakland skipper Bob Melvin. Jefferies still has an option remaining, so the Giants could freely send him to Triple-A even if he earns a 40-man roster spot.
Tsutsugo, who recently turned 32, spent time in the San Francisco system this year. He signed with the Giants out of independent ball in August, playing in 17 games between Double-A and Triple-A. Tsutsugo, who hit .197/.291/.339 over 640 big league plate appearances from 2020-22, had posted a .249/.380/.432 line with Texas’ top minor league affiliate in the first half of last season.
Shohei Ohtani Decision Reportedly “Imminent”
Shohei Ohtani’s cloak-and-dagger free agent saga has held up the top end of the free-agent and trade markets alike through the offseason’s first several weeks, but a decision from the two-time AL MVP is “imminent” and could be announced at some point today, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. In a segment on MLB Network (video link), Morosi adds that the Blue Jays have improved their standing in the Ohtani derby this week and are a finalist alongside the Dodgers, at the very least.
At last check, the Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Cubs were all involved in the bidding. The possibility of a dark-horse suitor that’s flown under the radar to this point can’t be ruled out, given the secretive nature of Ohtani’s free agency. Anecdotally, it’s of note that Friday marks six years, to the day, since Ohtani made his last free-agent decision, when he signed with the Angels.
Ohtani and the Blue Jays are believed to have met at the team’s spring training complex in Florida this week. Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts acknowledged during the Winter Meetings that his club had met with Ohtani and considered him their “top priority,” prompting some hand-wringing among Dodger fans that even such a basic acknowledgment of the obvious might work to their detriment. The Giants are reported to have met with Ohtani last weekend at Oracle Park. The incumbent Angels, of course, are already a known and familiar commodity for Ohtani. The Cubs’ status in the bidding remains least certain, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer publicly denied reports this week suggesting that his team’s optimism regarding Ohtani had waned.
Bidding on Ohtani was widely expected to eclipse $500MM, even after the slugger/ace underwent elbow surgery following the 2023 season. He’s not expected to pitch in 2024 but is on track to be ready to be in his next team’s Opening Day lineup as a designated hitter. There’s been some speculation this week that the bidding could push closer to a staggering $600MM. It’s heavily speculative at this juncture, given the by-design quiet nature of Ohtani’s foray into the open market.
Ohtani, 29, will be a transformative presence in any lineup he joins. A career .274/.366/.556 hitter, he’s stepped up his offensive game in recent seasons. He’s not quite on the same level as Aaron Judge or longtime teammate Mike Trout in terms of per-game production, but Ohtani has also been in the lineup more than both players over the past three seasons, even after missing the final several weeks of the ’23 campaign due to that elbow injury and an oblique strain. Since 2021, only Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Matt Olson have hit more than Ohtani’s 124 home runs. Only Judge, Trout and Yordan Alvarez have topped Ohtani’s massive 157 wRC+ (indicating that he’s been 57% better than a league average hitter after weighting for home park and league run-scoring environment). In that time, Ohtani carries a .277/.379/.585 batting line.
That’s only half the story with Ohtani, who finished fourth in 2022 American League Cy Young voting and has emerged as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter — when healthy. That’s a massive caveat in light of an earlier Tommy John surgery and now a second elbow procedure (details of which remain nebulous to public onlookers). But over the past three seasons, Ohtani has pitched 428 1/3 innings 2.84 ERA ball with an elite 31.4% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate.
If Ohtani is able to return to those heights following a second elbow surgery, there’s a very feasible path to him simultaneously winning a league MVP and Cy Young Award. His ability to regain that form, of course, is the single largest question mark surrounding him. There’s no doubt that Ohtani will pitch again in some capacity, but his expected level of success will remain a talking point until he actually takes the mound. At this point, he’s proven that it’s foolish to bet against him — but even if Ohtani can’t recapture that ace form, there’s plenty of value in him beyond that of a pure designated hitter. If he could pitch even as a capable mid-rotation starter or perhaps effective reliever, that’d be immensely valuable in and of itself.
And, even if Ohtani is simply never able to regain his form as a viable MLB pitcher, there’s no reason to think he’d “only” be a designated hitter. He’s played in the outfield both in Japan and (far more briefly) with the Angels. Ohtani still possesses above-average sprint speed, per Statcast, and there’s some reason to think he could improve upon last year’s 63rd-percentile ranking if he were focusing only on hitting and playing the outfield. He’s swiped 86 bases in his career, including a 20-for-26 showing this past season. The arm strength is clearly there, as is the raw athleticism needed to handle the position. At that point, Ohtani could be viewed in a somewhat comparable light to that of Judge, who signed a nine-year, $360MM contract when he was two years older than Ohtani is at present.
The off-field value associated with Ohtani can’t be discounted, either. Any team signing him will be tapping into a global fanbase that’ll boost merchandise sales, ticket sales, television ratings and more. Ohtani’s broad-reaching brand won’t pay for his salary on its own, but it’s a clear factor that any interested club will be weighing and attempting to contextualize/value when putting forth its best offer.
With a decision looming on Ohtani, let’s open it up for MLBTR readers with a poll:
Padres, Giants Showing Interest In Harrison Bader
The Giants and Padres are among the teams showing interest in free agent center fielder Harrison Bader, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Both teams also remain involved on KBO star Jung Hoo Lee.
San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi called center field a priority at the start of the offseason. The Padres created a pair of outfield vacancies with last night’s blockbuster that sent Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Bronx.
The Giants have a wider array of possibilities tied to their greater financial flexibility. San Francisco’s 2024 payroll projects around $40MM below this past season’s opening mark, as calculated by Roster Resource. That makes San Francisco a legitimate threat to land any player on the open market, including top center fielder Cody Bellinger.
A run at Bellinger isn’t likely for the Padres, but the Soto trade clears some room to attack the middle tiers of the market. Roster Resource pegs the Friars’ payroll around $156MM, while their luxury tax number (which uses contracts’ average salaries) sits in the $209MM range. Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote this morning the Friars prefer to keep their tax number below next year’s $237MM lowest threshold.
That’d be more than enough to accommodate Bader. He’s a rebound target after perhaps the worst season of his career. The 29-year-old hit .232/.274/.348 in 344 plate appearances with the Yankees and Reds. That marked his personal low on-base and slugging marks. Bader had a trio of stints on the injured list, missing time with oblique, hamstring and groin strains.
While that’s clearly not how he envisioned his platform year playing out, Bader had combined for a league average .259/.311/.414 slash between 2021-22. He’s an excellent defender in center field and went 20-23 on stolen base attempts in 98 contests this year. Bader is an asset against left-handed pitching, carrying a .262/.330/.494 slash in his career. His .236/.304/.364 mark versus righty arms is far less imposing, but Bader’s speed and glove can keep him in the lineup in unfavorable platoon situations.
Seven Teams Emerge As Top Suitors For Yamamoto
While the baseball world awaits movement on Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto has emerged as the #3 name on the offseason market. The right-hander is the most popular starting pitcher in free agency and has been tied to virtually every big spender (and a few less traditional suitors).
Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that seven teams have stepped forward as the key players in the Yamamoto bidding. That group includes (listed alphabetically) the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Mets and Yankees. Two other “mystery teams” are also involved.
None of those teams come as a surprise. They’ve all previously been linked to Yamamoto, while a few have openly discussed him as a target. Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns recently flew to Japan to sit down with the 25-year-old righty. Yamamoto will make his own trip this weekend, when he’s scheduled to come to the U.S. to chat with interested teams.
At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $225MM contract. It seems that could end up being light. In an appearance on Foul Territory yesterday, Ken Rosenthal noted there’s a general expectation that Yamamoto’s deal will land “considerably higher” than $200MM.
Yamamoto is coming off a third consecutive Sawamura award as Japan’s top pitcher. He turned in a 1.21 ERA over 164 innings while striking out 169 batters. Evaluators are nearly unanimous in projecting Yamamoto as at least a #2 caliber starter in the majors with a shot to be an ace. Between that dominance and nearly unprecedented youth for a free agent pitcher, he’s one of the most appealing in recent history.
That has made him a target for virtually all the big-market clubs. It stands to reason the Jays’ interest is contingent on Ohtani’s decision. (Toronto general manager Ross Atkins told reporters this week they didn’t plan to add two players from the top of the market.) The Giants and Dodgers are also believed to remain in the race for Ohtani, who could sign in the next few days. The Yankees are reportedly on the verge of acquiring Soto but still seem to be engaged on Yamamoto, while the Mets have made no secret of the fact that Yamamoto is their top offseason priority.
Report: Ohtani Decision “Expected” By Sunday
As the ongoing free agency of Shohei Ohtani continues to hold up the remainder of the free agent and trade markets, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the two-time American League MVP is expected to make a decision on his free-agent destination before the end of the weekend.
Ohtani’s free agency has, by design, been shrouded in secrecy. He and agent Nez Balelo of CAA Sports have worked to keep rumors of his potential destination under wraps, and many clubs have reportedly been wary of leaking information or commenting on Ohtani’s free agency in any capacity, for fear that it may hurt their chances of signing him.
Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts bucked that trend yesterday by announcing that his team recently hosted Ohtani for a meeting at Dodger Stadium and stating the obvious: that Ohtani is the Dodgers’ top priority. There’s been plenty of hand-wringing among Dodger faithful that Roberts’ comments harmed the team’s chances, though Morosi said in an appearance on MLB Network this morning that he does not see “in any way” that Roberts’ acknowledgment of what everyone already knew would serve as a deterrent to getting a deal done. It’d indeed be rather surprising if Ohtani’s decision on where he’ll play the next 10 to 13 seasons at a likely price tag north of $500MM were substantially impacted by a team’s manager simply acknowledging interest that has been anticipated for more than a year.
As it stands, the Dodgers are definitively known to have met with Ohtani. Reports this week indicated that the Blue Jays and Giants were also likely to have held sitdowns with the two-way star — the Jays at their spring complex in Dunedin, Fla. and the Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco. The incumbent Angels are also believed to be in the mix still. Last night, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer vehemently refuted reports that his own club’s optimism of landing Ohtani had “significantly waned.” It’s not known when or whether the Cubs hosted a meeting of their own with Ohtani, but Hoyer’s comments keep the door open for them as well.
Whether there are any darkhorse clubs who’ve managed to keep their involvement entirely off the radar is unclear, though that possibility can’t be discounted, given the nature of Ohtani’s free agency and the sheer demand an unprecedented talent like this has created. The Red Sox, Mets and Rangers were all involved early on in the process, but they’ve since appeared to shift their attention elsewhere after falling behind in the bidding.
If Ohtani indeed makes his decision in the next 96 hours or so (give or take), that would in all likelihood set the stage for the proverbial offseason floodgates to open. None of the reported finalists has been willing to make a significant move until learning whether they’ll be the team to ultimately reel in Ohtani. As such, that’s directly impacted the market for names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto (presumably a target of all finalists in the Ohtani bidding), top free agent bats like Cody Bellinger (a potential Giants, Jays or Angels target if Ohtani goes elsewhere) and even trade candidates like Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber, whose teams surely want to gauge interest from the runners-up in the Ohtani bidding.
Report: Cubs’ Optimism On Landing Ohtani “Has Waned”
Shohei Ohtani’s camp at CAA has done a good job keeping his free agency a relatively silent endeavor, but there have been occasional indicators that his market is beginning to narrow. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported last week that the Red Sox, Rangers and Mets had shifted their focus to players other than Ohtani, not believing themselves to be strong contenders to land him. Today, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Cubs are in a similar position. Chicago’s “optimism of landing Ohtani has now significantly waned,” per Nightengale, citing a high-ranking team executive.
Known suitors for Ohtani generally include the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Angels and Giants. (Others have surely expressed interest throughout the offseason.) If the Cubs are indeed pessimistic and/or turning their attention elsewhere, that makes four teams in the past four days that are now said to be increasingly doubtful about their chances of landing the two-time AL MVP. Given the secretive nature of Ohtani’s market, it’s always possible there are additional, surprise suitors lurking, but to this point there’s little to no indication of the ever-popular “mystery team” joining the fray.
As a major market club with long-term needs in the rotation and an immediate gap at designated hitter, the Cubs made plenty of sense as an Ohtani suitor. Chicago’s projected $178MM payroll is a ways of from the franchise-record $203MM Opening Day mark, and for a player like Ohtani it stands to reason that most clubs would be comfortable stretching beyond their previously established comfort levels. Ohtani could’ve slotted into the 2025 rotation alongside Justin Steele and would’ve added a thunderous left-handed bat to a lineup that could well lose resurgent Cody Bellinger, who is also a free agent.
Over the past few days, reports have emerged of in-person meetings between Ohtani’s camp and a few clubs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported yesterday that the Blue Jays are “believed” to have met with Ohtani at their spring complex on Monday, when GM Ross Atkins was noticeably absent from the site of the Winter Meetings in Nashville and conducted his media availability via Zoom. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle similarly reported that there were “indications” of a weekend meeting between the Giants and Ohtani at Oracle Park in San Francisco.
Suffice it to say, most teams have been quite wary of tipping their hand and perhaps harming their chances of hammering out a deal with Ohtani, who clearly wants a free-agent experience that does not play out in the public eye. While there was originally hope that Ohtani might make a decision at this week’s Winter Meetings, over the past 48 hours each of Nightengale, Jon Heyman of the New York Post and others have begun to suggest that Ohtani could continue conducting meetings with teams after this week’s event.
Blue Jays “Believed” To Have Met With Ohtani On Monday
Blue Jays officials are “believed” to have met with Shohei Ohtani at the team’s complex in Dunedin on Monday, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. It’s the latest development in a free agency process shrouded in secrecy, as Ohtani’s camp has reportedly made clear that the superstar would hold it against teams if they leak pertinent information.
Speculation about Ohtani and the Jays heightened this afternoon when Toronto general manager Ross Atkins switched his media availability to a Zoom conference. Atkins declined to specify his location, but his absence from Nashville’s Winter Meetings indicated he had other priorities. The Jays called the matter a “scheduling conflict.”
Ohtani meeting with Jays’ officials, assuming that was indeed the case, affirms that they’re in the running for the AL MVP. Yet it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re a clear favorite. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers and Cubs are involved, with other teams possibly still under consideration.
To that end, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote this evening that there are “indications” Ohtani had met with Giants’ brass on Saturday. Team officials were spotted at Oracle Park, while Slusser wrote on Saturday of “rumblings” that Ohtani was in San Francisco.
As a result of Ohtani’s evident desire to keep the process as mysterious as possible, executives and coaches with every team involved have steadfastly remained quiet. Angels manager Ron Washington joked at his media availability today that he “didn’t have anything to say about (Ohtani’s free agency) right now, because (he didn’t) want to let anything out of the bag” (video provided by Beyond the Halo).
With Ohtani’s free agency contributing to a slow pace early in the offseason, many fans have hoped for a resolution at the Winter Meetings. That may not be coming. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote on Monday afternoon that Ohtani could continue meeting with interested teams beyond the conclusion of the meetings on Wednesday.
Giants Could "Have An Edge" In Yoshinobu Yamamoto Sweepstakes
The Giants have long been expected to be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams after missing out on megadeals for stars Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason. While the club was still active on last year’s free agent market, deals for lower-profile players like Taylor Rogers, Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger didn’t save San Francisco from a 79-83 campaign that ended with a fourth place finish in the NL West this year. As president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his front office looks to turn things around ahead of the 2024 season, the club has been connected to plenty of top players this offseason, ranging from star outfielders Cody Bellinger and Juan Soto to reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell to even two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.
One such star the Giants are known to have interest in is NPB right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who Zaidi himself noted the club has scouted extensively in the run-up to his posting late last month. Today, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle provided an update on the club’s interest in Yamamoto, who ranked as the #3 free agent in this year’s edition of MLBTR’s annual top 50 free agents list. Per Slusser, other teams interested in Yamamoto believe that the Giants “have an edge” in the sweepstakes for his services. Yamamoto figures to be among the most sought-after free agents this winter, with reports indicating that nearly half the league has interest in the 25-year-old righty. The Mets and Yankees, in particular, have been connected to Yamamoto heavily to this point in the offseason.
