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Giants Sign Jordan Hicks

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The Giants announced that they have signed a four-year, $44MM contract with free agent right-hander Jordan Hicks. The righty will get a one-time signing bonus of $2MM, a $6MM salary in 2024, followed by a $12MM salary in the three subsequent years. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the deal and added that the Giants plan to utilize Hicks as a starter rather than a reliever. Hicks, who is represented by the Ballengee Group, can also earn an additional $2MM of annual incentives based on innings pitched, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Those incentives begin kicking in at the 100-inning mark, she adds.

A move back to the rotation is surprising, but it won’t be an entirely unfamiliar role for the flamethrowing 27-year-old. Hicks worked as a starter in the minors before debuting in the Cardinals’ bullpen during the 2018 season, and St. Louis briefly experimented with a move back to the rotation early in the 2022 campaign. That didn’t pan out — he yielded 16 runs in 24 2/3 innings before moving back to a relief role — but the Giants will try their hand at maximizing Hicks’ explosive arsenal out of their own rotation. The Giants have indeed shown a knack for helping pitchers break out — Kevin Gausman chief among them — and Hicks clearly has the type of raw stuff to intrigue clubs in a larger role.

Few pitchers can rival Hicks in terms of sheer velocity. He’s averaged 100.8 mph on his four-seamer and 100.2 mph on his two-seamer to this point in his career and has topped out at borderline comical 105 mph. The former third-round pick couples that blistering velocity with a slider that sits at 86.5 mph, and he’s thrown very occasional “changeups” in the past (never higher than at a 4%  clip) — sitting 91.8 mph on that pitch overall.

Given the uncommonly young age at which he reached the open market and the overpowering nature of his raw arsenal, Hicks has long felt like a pitcher who’d command substantial interest despite a more modest track record. MLBTR ranked him 21st on our Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a four-year, $40MM contract from a club believing it could unlock another gear in the righty.

As one might expect for a pitcher with this type of superhuman velocity, durability has been an issue. Hicks has never pitched more than 105 innings between the big leagues and minors combined in any season of his career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019, had a 60-day IL stint due to inflammation in that same elbow in 2021, and missed more than a month of the 2022 season due to a flexor strain. Hicks returned from that injury in early July and was placed back on the injured list in mid-September due to arm fatigue.

Of course, when he’s healthy and at his best, Hicks can be flat-out overpowering. He sports a career 3.85 ERA, but that’s skewed by 10 ugly innings prior to his UCL tear in 2019 and by his rough work as a starter in 2022. In 2023, Hicks turned in a 3.29 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate and a 58.3% ground-ball rate in 65 1/3 innings between the Cardinals and the Blue Jays, who acquired him from St. Louis at the trade deadline in exchange for minor league pitchers Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse. That ground-ball rate is nothing new; Hicks boasts a sensational 60.4% grounder rate in his career. Unfortunately, last year’s command troubles aren’t new either. He’s issued a free pass to an unsightly 12.8% of his opponents in the Majors.

Given last year’s innings count — and totals of 66 1/3 and 13 frames in the two preceding seasons — it’s difficult to imagine Hicks simply stepping into a rotation and firing off 30-plus starts, even if he’s able to remain healthy. The Giants figure to place him on some kind of innings limit in 2024, whether that means capping him at five innings per start, using him to piggyback with another starter, or simply giving him some occasional spells in the bullpen to keep his arm fresh.

An ideal setting might see Hicks move to the bullpen late in the season right as recent trade acquisition Robbie Ray returns from Tommy John surgery, though a lot needs to go right before that’s a legitimate consideration. If Hicks is able to both remain healthy and pitch effectively as a starter this coming season, the team could give him a larger workload come 2025. At that point, plugging Hicks and Ray into the rotation behind ace Logan Webb could give San Francisco a formidable trio. That’s a major “if,” but the upside is intriguing.

For the time being, Hicks will add another question mark to a rotation that’s teeming with uncertainty behind Webb, a 2023 Cy Young Award finalist. Webb led the Majors with 216 innings pitched last year, but Alex Cobb and Sean Manaea were the only other Giants pitchers to reach even 100 innings. Manaea has since signed with the Mets in free agency, and Cobb will open the 2024 season on the injured list while he recovers from hip surgery.

Hicks joins veteran swingman Ross Stripling, top prospect Kyle Harrison and young righties Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck as candidates to fill out the rotation behind Webb. Twenty-five-year-old righty Kai-Wei Teng, who walked nearly 14% of his opponents in Triple-A last year, is the only other starting pitcher on the 40-man roster. Top prospect Carson Whisenhunt is surely viewed as a potential rotation mainstay by Giants brass, but he’s pitched just 19 2/3 innings above A-ball and in all likelihood won’t be an option until the 2025 campaign.

It seems fair to envision the Giants making further additions to their rotation, given all that instability, although with both Cobb and Ray on the mend, there will be veteran reinforcements filtering in as the season wears on. Still, the Giants entered the offseason with question marks on the pitching staff and throughout the lineup, and many of those needs remain unaddressed. Adding a more established arm — be it a mid-tier arm in the Mike Clevinger/Michael Lorenzen/Hyun Jin Ryu vein or a top-tier starter like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery — still seems both prudent and well within the Giants’ budgetary capacity.

As it stands, the Giants’ payroll currently projects to about $167MM, per Roster Resource, while their luxury-tax ledger sits nearly $30MM shy of the $237MM first-tier threshold. San Francisco opened the 2023 season with a $188MM payroll and has previously put forth a $200MM roster in the past, so there ought to be considerable room for further augmentation on the free agent and/or trade markets.

MLBTR Podcast: Teoscar Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will anything stop this trend of deferred money in contracts? (23:40)
  • Will there ever be a salary floor and would that help baseball in any way? (32:20)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Latest On Shota Imanaga

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Jan. 9: Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports this morning that both the Giants and Angels now “appear to be looking elsewhere” (Twitter links). Heyman suggests that both the Red Sox and Cubs are “very much” still alive in the Imanaga bidding. That runs counter to reports from the weekend and from yesterday, though bidding on any free agent is, of course, quite fluid. Imanaga has a bit more than 48 hours remaining to come to terms with a team.

Jan. 8, 3:55pm: Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Sox are considered a “long shot” to get Imanaga as things currently stand.

3:45pm: Star NPB left-hander Shota Imanaga will see his 45-day posting window come to a close on Thursday, meaning it’s only a matter of days before the 30-year-old will decide on his first big league team. Bidding for Imanaga has reportedly been strong, as he’s drawn interest from a wide range of teams thus far in his first foray into MLB’s open market. As the bidding period winds down, Imanaga’s market has unsurprisingly begun to take firmer shape.

Sankei Sports in Japan reports that the Angels and Giants are currently the leading candidates to sign Imanaga, although no decision has been made just yet. Similarly, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggests that the Giants are emerging as the favorites to sign the southpaw, though Feinsand adds that each of the Angels, Cubs and Red Sox remain in the fold to some extent. While there’s still a number of ways which the left-hander’s final decision could go, it’s at least notable that Feinsand characterizes a final four of sorts, while the reports out of Japan have the field narrowed further yet.

The Giants and Angels are both strong fits for Imanaga, who’s expected to top countryman Kodai Senga’s five-year, $75MM contract with the Mets. San Francisco acquired former AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray on Friday in a surprising trade with the Mariners, but Ray isn’t expected to pitch until midseason as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Similarly, right-hander Alex Cobb will open the year on the injured list while recovering from October hip surgery.

That leaves the Giants with ace Logan Webb as the most (arguably only) solidified member of the rotation. Veteran Ross Stripling, top prospect Kyle Harrison and 2023 rookies Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck are among the candidates to round out the staff, but there’s a good deal of uncertainty beyond that group. It’s true that Imanaga himself comes with his own uncertainty — he’s untested against big league hitters — but MLB scouts are intrigued enough by him that some believe his contract could approach nine figures. Clearly, there’s a prevailing belief throughout MLB that Imanaga is a legitimate mid-rotation arm, at the least.

A few hundred miles to the south, the Angels are facing some rotation questions of their own. Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning and Patrick Sandoval are all locked into spots, although Detmers and Sandoval both had down 2023 showings relative to their 2022 performance. That’s even more true of veteran Tyler Anderson, who had an All-Star ’22 showing with the Dodgers before posting a 5.43 ERA in year one of a three-year, $39MM free agent deal with the Halos. The Angels recently took a low-cost flier on Zach Plesac and have reportedly been prioritizing Blake Snell in the wake of Shohei Ohtani’s departure, but Imanaga presents a mid-rotation option for them as well.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, will roll out a new-look rotation with or without Imanaga. Gone is oft-injured ace Chris Sale, who was shipped to the Braves (with cash) in exchange for second baseman Vaughn Grissom. He was quickly replaced by newly signed Lucas Giolito, who’s currently in line to be joined by some combination of Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford.

As for the Cubs, they’ve been MLB’s least-active team this winter — at least when it comes to actually pushing deals across the finish line. Chicago has been connected to a litany of free agents and a handful of trade targets, but thus far the Cubs haven’t added a single player to their roster aside from catcher Brian Serven, whom they claimed off waivers from the Rockies last week. Chicago’s rotation currently includes Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon, with veteran Drew Smyly and young arms like Hayden Wesneski, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Javier Assad all in the mix for starts as well. It’s a relatively solid group, but the Cubs figure to make some kind of move to replace the outgoing Marcus Stroman.

Dating back to 2019, Imanaga boasts a 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate in addition to a cumulative 2.79 earned run average — including a no-hitter in the 2022 season. He’s not overpowering in terms of velocity, though MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted back in September that he’d added some life to his heater and was averaging between 92-93 mph during the 2023 campaign. In addition to the guaranteed money owed to the pitcher himself, Imanaga’s new team will need to pay a release fee to his former team, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars, which would be equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.

Zaidi: "I Can't Imagine Any Plausible Scenario" For Kyle Harrison Trade

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  • Top Giants prospect Kyle Harrison has been speculatively floated as a trade candidate, especially after reports surfaced last month that the club was considering dealing from its stock of young pitching.  However, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi all but officially closed the door on a Harrison swap, telling The Athletic’s Tim Kawakami in a podcast interview that “I can’t imagine any plausible scenario where we would move Kyle.  He kind of embodies everything we’re hoping to be the next few years.  He’s a local guy, he’s a homegrown talent, drafted and developed in our organization….Is a great kid, great competitor, has All-Star, Cy Young potential in our mind.  Works really hard.  Those are the kinds of guys you want to build around.”

Giants Re-Sign Donovan Walton

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The Giants signed infielder Donovan Walton to a minor league contract two weeks ago, as per Walton’s MLB.com profile page.  Walton became a minor league free agent at the conclusion of the 2023 season, but he’ll now return for what will be a third season in San Francisco’s organization.

Acquired in a trade with the Mariners in May 2022, Walton hit .158/.179/.303 over 78 plate appearance and 24 games with the Giants over the remainder of the 2022 campaign.  Walton was frequently shuttled back and forth between Triple-A and the big league roster, yet his season was cut short entirely by a shoulder injury that eventually required surgery that September.  San Francisco non-tendered Walton that winter but quickly re-signed him to a minors deal, and he ended up playing 71 games across four different levels of the Giants’ minor league ladder as he rehabbed his shoulder.

2023 therefore marked the first big league season since Walton’s 2019 MLB debut that he didn’t receive at least some action in the Show.  Walton played in 37 games with the Mariners across parts of the 2019-22 seasons, with only a .179/.225/.310 slash line over 180 career PA.  While he hasn’t hit much with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate, his overall career numbers (.274/.364/.463 in 588 PA) are still strong overall.

Walton has spent most of his time as a second baseman and shortstop, with a handful of other appearances as a left fielder and corner infielder.  This defensive utility will add to his usage as a depth option at Spring Training or in the minor leagues, since while the Giants are known to be looking for some veteran shortstop help, Walton’s lack of a track record doesn’t make him an ideal complement to top prospect Marco Luciano.

Mariners Trade Robbie Ray To Giants For Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani

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The Giants and Mariners have completed a trade, per announcements from both clubs, that will send left-hander Robbie Ray to the Giants, with outfielder Mitch Haniger, right-hander Anthony DeSclafani and cash considerations going to the Mariners. It’s an out-of-nowhere trade involving significant pieces going in both directions. Per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, it’s approximately $6MM going to Seattle.

“As we continue to build out our team for 2024 and beyond, we feel this trade accomplishes a couple of our objectives,” said president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto in the official announcement. “In Mitch, we get a player we know well, and hold in very high regard, as another piece for our outfield, while Anthony – who can start or pitch out of the ‘pen – gives us depth in our pitching staff. And the deal allows us to put the best team possible on the field from Opening Day on.

“I do want to thank Robbie for his time in Seattle. On the field and in the clubhouse, he was a key part of taking us to the postseason in 2022 and in allowing us to remain in the race down to the final days in 2023. He provided leadership to our young pitchers that will be felt here for years to come. We wish he and his family nothing but the best in San Francisco.”

Ray, now 32, won the American League Cy Young with the Blue Jays in 2021 and parlayed that into a five-year, $115MM deal with the Mariners, with the ability to opt out after three seasons. His first year with Seattle was strong, as he made 32 starts with a 3.71 earned run average. He struck out 27.4% of batters faced while issuing walks at just an 8% clip. But in 2023, he made just one appearance before being shut down and eventually requiring elbow surgery to both repair his flexor tendon and reconstruct his ulnar collateral ligament.

As Ray sat out the rest of the 2023 season, the Seattle rotation actually managed to fare well in his absence. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby were in the front, with prospects Bryce Miller Emerson Hancock and Bryan Woo stepping up to help out. All six of those players were still under club control going into 2024, giving the Mariners something of a rotation surplus that led to some trade speculation.

They have held tight to that group so far and could have had Ray rejoin the rotation later in the year, perhaps as soon as midseason. But instead, it seems they have decided to exchange him for players that can help them throughout the entire year. Ray had a full no-trade clause for 2022 and 2023 but could be moved without his input now that the calendar has flipped to 2024.

For the Giants, their rotation was inconsistent in 2023 as they were arguably the club that was the least committed to traditional starter usage. Logan Webb and Alex Cobb were mainstays but pitchers like Ross Stripling, Alex Wood, Sean Manaea and DeSclafani were often moved to the bullpen or the injured list or both.

Looking ahead to 2024, it’s possible that the rotation will again evolve over the course of the season. Cobb underwent hip surgery and may not be ready for the beginning of the campaign, meaning he and Ray will be jumping into the mix once they are healthy. But at the start of the season, Webb currently figures to be joined by Stripling, but with plenty of uncertainty beyond that. Younger pitchers such as Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck could be in the mix but none of that group even has a full year in the big leagues to this point. But with Cobb and Ray hopping on board along the way, the rotation could be in a much different place at the end of the season.

Of course, there’s nothing to suggest that the club is done with their offseason moves. There’s still over a month until Spring Training and the Giants have been connected to big name free agents like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga. Bob Nightengale of USA Today says the Giants are still in on Snell even after this trade. There are also plenty of other free agents still available if the Giants don’t nab any of those three.

In exchange for Ray, the Mariners will bolster their lineup with a familiar face, as Haniger was with the club from 2017 to 2022. Health was an ongoing issue, including missing the entire 2020 season, but he was a tremendous offensive asset when on the field. He hit 107 home runs in his 530 games during those seasons, slashing .263/.337/.480 for a wRC+ of 124.

After reaching free agency, he signed with the Giants on a three-year, $43.5MM deal going into 2023, with an opt-out opportunity after the second season. His first year in San Francisco didn’t go well, as he made trips to the injured list for a left oblique strain, fractured right forearm and low back strain. He only played 61 games and hit a tepid .209/.266/.365 when he was in the lineup.

The Giants recently signed Jung Hoo Lee to be their center fielder, which will nudge Mike Yastrzemski over into the corner outfield mix alongside Michael Conforto. There could have been room for Haniger in there still with the designated hitter slot, but the Giants also have Wilmer Flores as a good candidate for that spot, perhaps making Haniger more useful in Seattle than in San Francisco.

The Mariners did a lot of subtracting from their lineup in the early parts of the offseason. They didn’t make a qualifying offer to Teoscar Hernández, then traded away Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic in separate deals. That removed three potent but strikeout-prone bats from the lineup as the Mariners looked to find more contact and juggle their finances amid uncertainty around their broadcast revenue.

They have subsequently switched their focus to additions, signing Mitch Garver to serve as a backup catcher/designated hitter and now Haniger will join the corner outfield mix. Haniger won’t help too much with the strikeout issues, as he’s been punched out at a rate of 24.5% or higher in each of the past four full seasons. But his right-handed bat should pair well with lefties likes Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Cade Marlowe. Another left-handed outfielder, Luke Raley, was also acquired from the Rays today in a separate trade. Haniger doesn’t have huge platoon splits but his 129 wRC+ against lefties in his career is a few points better than his 114 versus righties.

There’s also DeSclafani heading to Seattle, adding to their pitching staff. He had some solid seasons as a mid-rotation guy with the Reds but struggled badly in the shortened 2020 season, an all-timed down year as he was heading into free agency. He then settled for a one-year pillow deal with the Giants, earning $6MM in 2021. He posted a 3.17 ERA that year over 167 2/3 innings and parlayed that into a three-year, $36MM deal to return to San Francisco.

That second deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well for the Giants, however. DeSclafani only made five starts in 2022 as he dealt with ankle issues that eventually required surgery. In 2023, he threw just under 100 innings, missing time due to right shoulder fatigue and a right elbow flexor strain, posting a 4.88 ERA in the process.

In Dipoto’s statement quoted above, he explicitly mentioned that DeSclafani can pitch out of the rotation or the bullpen. 169 out of his 180 major league games have been starts but it seems as though the Mariners won’t be guaranteeing him a rotation spot. As mentioned, they have Castillo, Kirby and Gilbert in the front three spots. Miller, Woo and Hancock all had encouraging results in 2023 but they’ve yet to pitch a full season in the big leagues. Perhaps DeSclafani’s role will be determined by his health and performance, as well as how those youngsters look. If they surpass him on the depth chart, he could be moved to the bullpen, and injuries could always open up opportunities as the season goes along. It also can’t be ruled out that the Mariners have yet another trade in the works between now and the start of the season, giving the way they typically operate.

Turning to the financials, it will be close to cash neutral in 2024 but there are many ways that it could play out down the road. Ray and Haniger each have $1MM assignment bonuses for being traded, so that’s a wash. Ray is going to make $23MM this year and is set to make $25MM in the next two campaigns, but he can opt out after the 2024 season, meaning he’ll have to decide whether or not to leave two years and $50MM on the table. If he’s healthy and effective this year, it’s easy to see him opting out and beating that on the open market, at least in terms of total guarantee. But if things don’t go smoothly in the months to come, perhaps he would take the security of the proverbial bird in the hand.

Haniger will have a $17MM salary this year and $15.5MM next year, though he can also opt out after the 2024 campaign. Another injury-marred season like he had in 2023 would likely lead to him staying put, but another bounceback from him would obviously change the calculus. DeSclafani is set to make $12MM this year, the final season of his deal. With $29MM owed to Haniger/DeSclafani this year and $23MM owed to Ray, the approximately $6MM coming from the Giants will cover the difference. But into the future, it will depend on the opt-out decisions.

The Mariners have had some payroll concerns due to their uncertain broadcast situation and had a decent chunk of their budget tied up in Ray, who wasn’t going to be able to help at all in the first half of the season. They are giving away the upside of his late-season return for a lineup upgrade and a pitcher who can hopefully be a more immediate factor for them. For the Giants, they took two players who were getting squeezed for playing time and turned them into an upside play on a potentially-elite lefty who could be a significant wild card down the stretch.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the three players involved in the swap. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that cash would be involved.

Dusty Baker Discussing Potential Role With Giants

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Dusty Baker has had “preliminary talks” with Giants president Larry Baer about a position with the organization, the longtime manager told Jason Dumas and F.P. Santangelo of 95.7 The Game (X link). Baker indicated he’s likely to speak with president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi at some point.

The 74-year-old stepped down from managing the Astros after the season, concluding what’ll very likely be a Hall of Fame career in the dugout. Even as he moved on from the daily responsibility of managing, Baker indicated he hoped to remain within the sport in some capacity. Houston owner Jim Crane said in October they were willing to keep Baker with the Astros, although a position with the Giants may be a better fit.

Baker lives in Sacramento. Not only is that much closer to San Francisco than to Houston, it’s also the site of the Giants’ Triple-A team, the River Cats. Some kind of special assistant job could allow him to stay involved with the MLB and Triple-A clubs while leaving the kind of personal flexibility that he couldn’t have had as a manager.

He’s also no stranger to the organization. The first 10 of Baker’s 26 seasons as a big league skipper came with the Giants. He led San Francisco to an 840-715 record between 1993-2002, overseeing five 90-win teams and the ’02 National League pennant. All three of Baker’s Manager of the Year selections (in 1993, ’97 and 2000) came during his tenure in the Bay Area.

Latest On Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery

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While many around the game have long assumed that the free agent market, particularly that for pitching, would pick up following right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last week, that seemingly has not come to fruition to this point. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com suggests that may be due to the fact that agent Scott Boras, who represents top remaining free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, “may be keen” on taking his time in finding new homes for the two southpaws. That’s hardly out of character for Boras, who has in previous seasons allowed star clients to linger on the free agent market well into Spring Training, as he did with Bryce Harper during the 2018-19 offseason.

That willingness to wait out the market could be, at least in part, due to the number of potential suitors still available for the pair to choose from. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, and Angels are all interested in both lefties. The Angels and Giants were linked to Snell last week, though their apparent interest in Montgomery was not mentioned in that reporting. Heyman also adds that the Yankees have interest in Montgomery, who had previously been floated as a back-up plan for them if they failed to lure Yamamoto to the Bronx, though he notes that it’s unclear if the club is interested in Snell as well.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Angels and Giants would expand their purview beyond Snell to include Montgomery, given the duo’s status as the clear top starters on the free agent market and each team’s obvious needs in the rotation. Likewise, the Yankees are known to be in the market for a top-of-the-rotation starter and clearly aren’t afraid to spend big after reportedly making Yamamoto a $300MM offer. Similarly, the Red Sox have been connected to top-of-the-rotation arms all throughout the offseason, though Cotillo cautions that the club is currently more focused on free agent arms a tier below Snell and Montgomery like Lucas Giolito and Shota Imanaga.

The Phillies are perhaps the most surprising inclusion on this list. While the club was among the finalists for Yamamoto’s services, the club has reportedly since pivoted to prioritizing a contract extension with Zack Wheeler rather than adding additional impact talent to the 2024 club. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed as much when discussing the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto with reporters recently, noting that future additions to the club figure to come “more around the edges” of the roster than anywhere else. That being said, the club evidently had the payroll space available to be a significantly player in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, making it at least feasible that the Phillies could make the top offer to either Montgomery or Snell if they so chose. Reporting early in the offseason described the club as “lukewarm” on Snell, though it’s possible the club’s tune regarding Snell has changed now that he would be pitching alongside Nola in the rotation rather than replacing the club’s homegrown ace.

The two southpaws’ markets being somewhat intertwined is not necessarily a surprise given their stature as the clear best free agent starters remaining on the market. That being said, the pair bring noticeably different skillsets to the table. Montgomery, who celebrated his 31st birthday yesterday, has been a model of consistency in recent years, with his year-to-year stats never drifting too far from his career norms: a solid 22.5% strikeout rate, a low 6.6% walk rate, and a 3.68 ERA (116 ERA+). With that being said, Montgomery’s 2023 season saw him take a step forward in terms of his run-prevention numbers as the lefty posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.56 FIP across a career-high 188 2/3 innings of work, giving him the look of a potential front-of-the-rotation workhorse with a stable, middle-of-the-rotation floor.

Snell, by contrast, has seen significantly higher highs and lower lows throughout his career in the big leagues. Having won the AL Cy Young award in 2018 and the NL Cy Young award this past season, Snell is among the most electric pitchers in baseball when he’s on as demonstrated by his sterling 1.23 ERA and sensational 35% strikeout rate over the final 23 starts of his 2023 campaign. On the other hand, however, Snell is also prone to stretches of significant struggles. From 2019-21, Snell posted just a 4.06 ERA and 3.73 FIP across 61 starts thanks to a severe problem with home runs (16.9% of his fly balls left the yard during that time) and a concerning 10.6% walk rate. During that three-year stretch, Snell had the look of a #4 starter despite never posting a strikeout rate below 30%. Even in his best years, he struggles to maintain his command as demonstrated by him allowing free passes at a league-leading 13.3% clip even en route to the second Cy Young award of his career this season.

Even as the suitors for both players are mostly similar, the differences in how each lefty gets to his results may be creating disparity in their price tags on the open market. Cotillo suggests that while Montgomery is expected to command a “massive” deal this offseason, some in the industry reportedly believe Snell’s market is less robust with Cotillo noting that a “person with knowledge of the pitching market” suggested that teams could end up offering Snell a three-year deal with a high average annual value and multiple opt-outs, similar to the deal shortstop (and fellow Boras client) Carlos Correa signed with the Twins during the 2021-22 offseason.

Of course, that report is just one source’s view of Snell’s market. It’s worth noting that MLBTR projected Snell for a far more significant seven-year, $200MM contract in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed fourth behind only Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, and Yamamoto. While a deal similar to Correa’s first pact in Minnesota could certainly make sense for Snell if his market fails to materialize, the number of clubs reportedly in search of front-of-the-rotation talent and Boras’s previous willingness to wait out the market in search of the best deal make it unlikely a more creative, shorter-term arrangement would come together anytime soon.

Latest On Giants' Failed Pursuit Of Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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  • While the Giants ultimately fell short in their pursuit of Yamamoto, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the club was “in the mix right until the very end” and that Yamamoto was impressed enough with San Francisco’s pitch that the club would have been the “West Coast finalist” for his services had the Dodgers not entered the fray after signing Shohei Ohtani. A source indicated to Slusser that Ohtani’s presence on the Dodgers played a role in Yamamoto’s decision to ultimately sign with the club for a record-breaking $325MM guaranteed over twelve years.

Giants Sign Tom Murphy

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TODAY: The Giants officially announced the signing.

DECEMBER 18: The Giants are in agreement with free agent catcher Tom Murphy on a two-year deal with a 2026 club option, according to multiple reports. The Ballengee Group client is reportedly guaranteed $8.25MM, including a $250K buyout on the option. The deal can max out at $12MM.

Murphy heads to the Bay Area after five seasons in the Pacific Northwest. The right-handed hitter played a semi-regular role during his time with the Mariners. On a rate basis, Murphy has been one of the most productive power bats at the catcher position.

In 807 plate appearances with Seattle, Murphy blasted 38 home runs. He hit .250/.324/.460 overall, well above-average offense in one of the sport’s more pitcher-friendly home parks. That’s excellent production for a #2 catcher. However, that Murphy has only stepped to the plate 807 times over the last five years also points to a concerning injury history.

Going back to the start of 2020, the Buffalo product has missed time with a fractured left foot, a left shoulder dislocation and a sprained left thumb. The foot injury cost him the entire shortened season, while the shoulder limited him to 14 games in 2022. Last season’s thumb issue, suffered in mid-August, ended his year.

Despite the injury history, it’s easy to see the appeal of bringing Murphy aboard on a fairly low-cost contract. He’ll add a legitimate power presence as the backup behind 24-year-old Patrick Bailey. He’ll strike out a fair amount as well, but there aren’t many depth catchers who have the same kind of slugging upside that Murphy possesses.

The 32-year-old (33 in April) isn’t as highly-regarded on the other side of the ball. Statcast graded him below average from both framing and blocking perspectives. He only threw out one of 28 attempted basestealers in 2023. While that’s not entirely on the catcher — a pitcher’s ability to hold runners is also a factor — Statcast ranked Murphy 69th out of 74 catchers (minimum 10 throws) in average pop time to second base.

Signing Murphy could signal the forthcoming end of Joey Bart’s time in San Francisco. The second overall pick in 2018, Bart has hit only .219/.288/.335 in 162 big league contests. This year marked his final minor league option season, meaning San Francisco will have to carry him on the MLB roster or make him available to other clubs via trade or waivers.

Bailey and Murphy are the top two on the depth chart. Blake Sabol also seems ahead of Bart on the organizational hierarchy, although he has a trio of options and could play the corner outfield. Even if the Giants were to send Sabol to Triple-A, there’s not much value in keeping Bart as a sparsely-used third catcher. A sell-low trade of the former top prospect this offseason seems likely.

The Giants had a payroll in the $155MM range before the Murphy signing, according to Roster Resource. A $4MM salary would push that north of $158MM. The contract’s $4.125MM average annual value puts their luxury tax number around $192MM, about $45MM below next year’s lowest threshold.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the sides were nearing a multi-year deal, as well as the $8MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first with an agreement. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported it was a two-year guarantee with a third-year option. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with the $250K option buyout, which Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 specified was not in the originally reported $8MM total. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported the $12MM maximum value.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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