West Notes: Hamilton, Athletics, Giants, Rockies
The Athletics wrap up a four-game series with the Angels tonight and are looking to take a third straight game from the Halos. Here’s more on Oakland and other items out of the Western divisions..
- The Rangers are likely to insist on a clause in any contract with Josh Hamilton that would offer them at some protection against major injury, writes Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com.
- Commissioner Bud Selig wouldn’t set a timetable for settling the territorial dispute between the A’s and the Giants but insisted that the A’s will need a new ballpark to compete, according to the Associated Press. Selig added that the last time he attended a game in Oakland, the park reminded him of County Stadium and Shea Stadium, which is “not a compliment.”
- A’s owner Lew Wolff reiterated that San Jose remains the club’s sole focus for ballpark relocation, tweets Joe Stiglich of the Bay Area News Group.
- Though A’s skipper Bob Melvin hoped to hang on to Brandon Allen, he’s happy to see the the first baseman find another opportunity with the Rays, writes MLB.com’s Jane Lee. The 26-year-old has a .205/.291/.375 line in 274 career plate appearances with the Diamondbacks and Athletics.
- The Rockies’ release of Albert Campos this week surprised Ben Badler of Baseball America as the right-hander was ranked as the club’s No. 13 prospect entering the 2011 season before dropping out of the top 30 this year. Campos originally signed with the Rockies as a 16-year-old in July of 2007. According to a source familiar with the pitcher, he was involved in a physical incident off the field.
Top First-Time Arbitration Eligible Catchers For 2013
Carlos Santana and Jonathan Lucroy recently signed extensions, but some other catchers are on track for year to year raises through arbitration. Three of the game's top young backstops will be arbitration eligible for the first time following the 2012 season. Matt Wieters, Alex Avila, Buster Posey are well-positioned for 2013 salaries in excess of $2MM if they stay healthy this year.
Deals from long ago, players from different service classes and long-term extensions won't generally have sway in the arbitration cases for players such as Wieters, Avila and Posey who determine salaries year to year. Catchers are typically self-contained in arbitration, meaning players at other positions don't figure into the discussion most of the time. For comps to have pull with agents (and the MLBPA) and teams (and the Labor Relations Department), they have to be recent and relevant.
What's relevant? First-time eligible catchers who agreed to one-year deals via the arbitration system provide the framework within which the salaries for Wieters, Avila and Posey will be determined. Reaching back more than five years would be pushing it, which further limits the selection of comparables. Many top catchers (Brian McCann, Yadier Molina) signed long-term deals and other potentially comparable catchers like A.J. Pierzynski went to arbitration long ago (post-2003). These cases aren't centrally important to Wieters, Avila and Posey.
We're left with the Arb-1 salaries for Russell Martin ($3.9MM), Geovany Soto ($3MM), Nick Hundley ($2MM), Miguel Montero ($2MM) and Mike Napoli ($2MM). Each of those settlements came within the last five years and could help determine the earnings for this offseason's first-time eligible backstops. Before signing his first extension, Joe Mauer and the Twins exchanged arbitration submissions and arrived at a $3.9MM midpoint ($4.5MM vs. $3.3MM). Those six-year-old filing numbers could also figure in to next winter's cases.
Posey didn't play after a gruesome home-plate collision ended his season last May, so there's no way he'll measure up to players such as Avila, Wieters, Soto and Martin in terms of bulk stats like games, plate appearances and RBI. Posey resembles Soto, another NL Rookie of the Year winner, on a per-game basis, but he probably won't catch up to the Cubs backstop in terms of counting stats.
With a full season, Posey should have better bulk numbers than Hundley, Napoli and Montero did as first-time eligible catchers. Each member of that trio obtained $2MM their first time through the arbitration process, so a salary in the $2-3MM range is within reach for Posey.
If Avila plays in 104 games, makes 470 plate appearances, hits 23 homers and drives in 69 this season, he’ll have matched the career stats Soto had as a first-time eligible player. Avila could match Martin in homers, and a better platform year is within reach. But in terms of most significant counting stats, Avila won't measure up to Wieters and Martin, the record holder for first-time eligible catchers. Still, Avila's similarity to Soto should set him up for a comparable payday in the $3MM range.
Wieters will have distinguished himself from $2MM catchers such as Hundley, Montero, Napoli and John Buck by the time the season ends. In fact, it's not hard to argue that he has already done so. The switch hitter currently compares well with Soto's post-2010 career numbers despite his relative inexperience. He'll match Soto's career numbers with eight more homers and 21 RBI, but the Cubs backstop had a better career batting line. Even so, $3MM seems quite attainable for Wieters.
With a healthy season, Wieters would surpass some of the numbers Martin had as a first-time eligible player. The Orioles catcher is on track to have more games, plate appearances and RBI than Martin did when he set his record after the 2008 season. And Wieters' bulk numbers are already superior to those Mauer had as a first-time eligible player. However, Wieters doesn't offer Martin's speed or the batting average and on-base percentage that Martin and Mauer both had. Wieters' 2013 salary could be closer to $4MM than it is to $3MM, but it's unreasonable to expect him to break any records just yet.
These informal projections could change quickly. As Posey knows all too well, injuries can interrupt seasons and limit bargaining power. Playing time is one of the most important determinants of a hitter's salary, so these three catchers must stay healthy to remain on track. If all goes well, their salaries will climb above $2MM following the 2012 season.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
Quick Hits: Marlins, Jeter, Lincecum, Chisenhall
In a piece inspired by early-season injuries to key relievers Tom Verducci of SI.com points out that closers tend to be inefficient investments. "No one wants to admit it," he writes, "but the modern bullpen is a failure." Here are the rest of today's links…
- Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he likes what he has seen from manager Ozzie Guillen despite last week's controversial remarks. “He’s very good for here," Loria said. "Excellent. Not only for here, for any team."
- When the Yankees signed Derek Jeter to a three-year, $51MM contract two offseasons ago, they felt it was an overpay, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. But the shortstop played tremendously down the stretch in 2011 and has started the 2012 season well.
- ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests the Giants will likely want to see Tim Lincecum rebound from his early-season struggles before offering him an extension at market value.
- Indians manager Manny Acta told Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio that top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall remains Cleveland's future third baseman and won’t become trade bait this summer (Twitter link, audio here).
Examining The Madison Bumgarner Extension
It’s not surprising that Madison Bumgarner's part of the Giants’ long-term vision. The 22-year-old is establishing himself as one of the best left-handers in the National League as he begins his second full season. But the specifics of the five-year, $35MM extension he signed yesterday were somewhat surprising. Here’s a breakdown of the deal:
What Distinguishes Bumgarner From His Peers
Bumgarner signed a record deal for pitchers with one-plus years of MLB service time. Most pitchers in Bumgarner’s service class have signed four-year deals in the $10-12MM range, but Bumgarner’s deal corresponds to the five-year, $30MM template for starters with two-plus years of service.
How’d he pull that off? I am guessing his representatives at SFX argued that he has enough bulk and quality to separate himself from most of his own service class and place him alongside more experienced pitchers.
Many players in Bumgarner’s own service class don’t compare. He had 150-200 more innings than pitchers such as Cory Luebke, Wade Davis or Brett Anderson had when they signed as one-plus players (for an interesting counter-example, check out James Shields’ stats through 2007). SFX presumably said ‘Bumgarner needs to earn as much as the pitchers in the next service class because he is as accomplished as them.’
Why Bumgarner Could Ask For $30MM+
Pitchers such as Jon Niese, Derek Holland, Clay Buchholz and Trevor Cahill signed for $25-30.5MM as two-plus players. They have only a slight advantage over Bumgarner in career wins, starts and innings despite their one-year advantage in service time. Bumgarner has more innings than Ricky Romero or Yovani Gallardo did at the time of their deals, and at least as many starts. (Innings matter a whole lot when we’re discussing pitchers’ arbitration years.)
There's also quality. Bumgarner’s ERA is substantially below the marks of Niese and Holland and well below the marks of Romero, Gallardo, Cahill and Buchholz and Jon Lester. He also has a better career walk rate than anyone in this group and better career strikeout rate than anyone but Gallardo. Not only has he pitched his share of innings, they’ve been good ones. Cy Young votes and postseason experience help, too.
Still, I wouldn't have expected Bumgarner to sign for more than $30MM. He ultimately obtained more than most pitchers in the service class ahead of him.
Why The Deal Works For The Giants
The Giants likely looked ahead to Bumgarner's arb years and thought 'this guy's going to get expensive in a hurry.' They know better than any team that elite pitchers can earn lots by going year to year through the arbitration process.
Bumgarner had been on track for a first year arbitration salary of $4MM or more. It would only get more expensive from there, so the Giants obtained some potential for savings in arb here. The deal also insures against the possibility that Bumgarner breaks out into an ace.
Arbitration savings are nice, but they’re a risky way to try to save given the guaranteed commitment required. Most importantly, the Giants extended Bumgarner’s time in San Francisco by at least one year, and possibly three. The Giants now control more of his prime years.
Why The Deal Works For Bumgarner
Let’s start with the $35MM guarantee. Not only does Bumgarner obtain a ton of money, he establishes a new record for pitchers in his service class.
It’s also worth noting that this deal won't necessarily represent the only big payday of his career. At the latest, he'll hit free agency following his age-29 season. Left-handed starters C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee have shown teams are willing to pay for elite starters well after they turn 30.
Quick Hits: Hamels, Athletics, McCarthy, Rockies
Stephen Strasburg looked almost human tonight, allowing two runs in six innings against the Astros to raise his ERA all the way up to 0.95 for the season. Strasburg still picked up the win in a 6-3 Nationals victory and, as a bonus, got a hilarious new nickname for his curveball, courtesy of MLB Network's Jerry Manuel.
Here are a few odds and ends from around the Majors…
- Matt Cain figures Cole Hamels' next contract (whether with the Phillies or on the free agent market) will earn the southpaw more than Cain's recent extension with the Giants, reports MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. "History-wise, lefties have always brought more than a righty," Cain said. "It's just the nature of the game." Cain said he was happy to sign his extension and remain in San Francisco for the long-term as free agency is "not always a beautiful thing."
- The Athletics' stadium issue and possible move to San Jose will not be on the agenda at the next owners meetings, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Earlier today, Slusser reported that the A's were pushing to have the issue subjected to a vote of other owners so they could have the issue settled once and for all.
- ESPN's Buster Olney (via Twitter) thinks the A's could explore a multiyear contract with Brandon McCarthy. The right-hander has pitched very well in his time in Oakland, posting a 3.24 ERA and a 4.59 K/BB ratio in 28 starts. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes considered McCarthy as an extension candidate in February.
- The Rockies' starting pitching woes could be solved by three southpaw prospects — Drew Pomeranz, Christian Friedrich and Tyler Matzek, writes Troy Renck of the Denver Post.
- Also from Renck, he notes that Troy Tulowitzki's six-year extension from the Rockies in 2010 drew criticism at the time, but now could be seen as a bargain in the wake of the mega-deals given to Albert Pujols and Joey Votto.
- The Reds are one of several preseason contenders off to a slow start, but Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News says it's far too early for fans to panic.
AL East Notes: Jones, Cooper, Ellsbury
It was on this day in 1945 that Jackie Robinson (along with fellow Negro League players Marvin Williams and Sam Jethroe) participated in a tryout for the Red Sox at Fenway Park. None of the trio were signed and Robinson signed his ground-breaking contract with the Dodgers later in the year. The Red Sox ended up being the last team to integrate its roster — Pumpsie Green appeared in a game as a pinch-runner on July 21, 1959, over 12 years after Robinson's Major League debut.
Here's the latest from the AL East…
- If Adam Jones hasn't signed a contract extension with the Orioles by July, the team should consider a trade, opines Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. Jones and the O's discussed a multiyear deal over the winter but talks were tabled. The 26-year-old has only helped his case for a big contract with a hot start to the season (a 1.052 OPS though Sunday's action) and has one more year of arbitration eligibility before potentially hitting the free agent market after the 2013 season. A Jones trade would be an unpopular move in Baltimore but the Orioles would undoubtedly receive a good haul of prospects in return for the center fielder.
- With Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind filling the Blue Jays' DH and first base spots, minor league first baseman David Cooper could become trade bait later this year, writes MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm. Cooper posted a .974 OPS at Triple-A last season and led the Pacific Coast League with a .364 average but hit just nine homers, leading to doubts about whether he has the power to contribute at the Major League level.
- The Red Sox have enough hitting to weather the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, but the team's key problem is still its lack of rotation depth. In the same piece, Morosi notes that the Giants also have the bullpen arms to survive Brian Wilson's season-ending elbow injury but could have an unexpected starting pitching problem of their own if Tim Lincecum continues to struggle.
Giants Touch Base With Posey, Lincecum On Contracts
Giants VP of baseball operations Bobby Evans said he contacted Buster Posey's agent today in regards to a possible multiyear extension for the catcher, and also told Tim Lincecum's agent that the right-hander is also still in the team's plans. (Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area and Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweet the details from Evans' talk with media members.)
The Giants and Posey first talked a possible extension in the spring and now that Posey has shown himself to be apparently recovered from the broken leg that prematurely ended his 2011 season, it's no surprise that the club has revisited locking up its best young position player. Carlos Santana's recent five-year, $21MM extension with the Indians will probably serve as a reference point for what a Posey extension might look like.
As for Lincecum, it sounds as if Evans was simply making a courtesy call to indicate that nothing had changed in regards to the Giants' desire to sign Lincecum to a long-term contract. "Obviously we'll be looking toward that in the future," Evans said. Earlier today, Schulman wrote that the added cost certainty achieved by signing Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain to extensions increases the chances of the Giants also extending Lincecum.
Despite the Giants' recent spate of moves, it may yet be a while before we see Posey or Lincecum extended. Evans said he didn't expect any negotiations to take place during the season but "there will be a time we address that" (Twitter link).
Bay Area Notes: San Jose, Bumgarner, Lincecum
Long-time Athletics minor league roving instructor Ron Plaza passed away last night at age 77, according to a team media release. Plaza had been with the A's since 1983, and also worked for the Reds and Cardinals organizations during his 61-year career in baseball as a player, manager and coach. We at MLBTR send our condolences to Plaza's family, friends and colleagues.
Here's the latest from both the A's and the Giants…
- The Athletics aim to put their new stadium and proposed move to San Jose on the agenda for next month's owners meetings, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. By forcing the other owners to vote on the move, the A's would finally get some resolution on an issue that has dragged on for three years. Neither A's owner Lew Wolff or GM Billy Beane would comment on the story.
- One of Slusser's sources (Twitter link) isn't certain if the A's will be successful in getting their case heard at the owners meetings. It will ultimately be up to Bud Selig, who decides on the meetings' agenda.
- Madison Bumgarner's extension with the Giants is "a win for everyone involved," writes Dave Cameron for Fangraphs.
- The Giants now have greater cost certainty with Bumgarner and Matt Cain both locked up to multiyear contracts, which Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter) feels will make the team likelier to sign Tim Lincecum to a long-term deal "if he has a good year." Lincecum signed a two-year pact with the Giants in January that puts him on pace to hit free agency after the 2013 season.
Giants Extend Madison Bumgarner
The Giants don't have the most intimidating offense in the league, but they've got pitching and it's not going anywhere. The team announced a five-year extension for Madison Bumgarner that will keep the left-hander in San Francisco through 2017. The deal, which starts in 2013, includes options for 2018 (club/vesting) and 2019 (club).
The extension guarantees Bumgarner $35MM over five years, his agency, SFX, announced (all Twitter links). The contract represents a record for pitchers with one-plus years of MLB service, but the Giants saw enough from the 22-year-old to make a record-setting commitment after just one full season.
“Preserving our core pitching for the long term remains a top priority for the Giants and today’s extension certainly helps further that goal,” GM Brian Sabean said in a press release. “Madison has already proven that he is one of the best left handed pitchers in the game today and we are confident that he will continue to succeed for many years to come.”
The guaranteed portion of the extension covers Bumgarner's final pre-arbitration season, his three seasons of arbitration eligibility, and one free agent year assuming that CAA's projected super two cutoff proves accurate. The club options cover free agent seasons.
Bumgarner's guarantee would increase to $40MM if he qualifies for super two status following the 2012 season — a possibility that now seems remote. ESPN.com's Buster Olney tweets the expected salary breakdown. The deal includes a limited no-trade clause, Olney tweets. Bumgarner can block trades to eight teams per year.
Bumgarner will pitch alongside Matt Cain, who recently signed an extension that locks him up through 2017. Tim Lincecum's under team control through 2013, as the Giants have been unable to work out a long-term deal with the two-time Cy Young Award winner so far.
As MLBTR's Extension Tracker shows, many pitchers have signed five-year extensions covering their arbitration seasons. However, most had more service time than Bumgarner has now. The 2007 first round selection entered the 2012 season with one year and 127 days of MLB service, but that didn't stop him from setting a record for his service class. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes previewed a possible extension for Bumgarner in December, suggesting SFX would do well to obtain $23-4MM in guaranteed money.
Bumgarner helped the Giants win the 2010 World Series, making 18 regular season starts that year plus three more in the playoffs. He followed up his rookie year by posting a 3.21 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 46% ground ball rate in 204 2/3 innings in 2011. Though he doesn't throw particularly hard, Bumgarner combines his low-90s fastball with an effective slider to subdue his opponents.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
Brian Wilson Out For Season
Giants closer Brian Wilson is officially out for the season and will likely undergo his second Tommy John surgery, according to Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area. Baggarly adds that Wilson's elbow troubles date back to a flexor strain suffered in 2010, and while that issue didn't involve his UCL, this current injury does. Wilson knew he'd injured himself significantly on a pitch to Tyler Colvin, but wanted his final pitch to be one that saved Madison Bumgarner's win (which it did).
Since taking over as the Giants' full-time closer in 2008, Wilson has pitched to a 3.04 ERA over 266 1/3 innings en route to 164 saves. He's posted a strong 10.1 K/9 to go along with a 3.8 BB/9 in that time, and led the National League in 2010 with 48 saves. He plans to spend the season with his team, and in his usual joking manner, told reporters the injury was only a minor setback because he plans on pitching forever.
With Wilson on the shelf, the Giants plan to go with a committee to close games, using a combination of Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, and Javier Lopez to close games. Fantasy players can follow along with the latest updates on Wilson and other closers by following @Closernews on Twitter.