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Looking Ahead To Upcoming Club Options: NL West

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We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.

We’ll go division by division and open things in the National League West:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Chafin lingered in free agency over the winter after opting out of his deal with the Tigers. The seeming lack of market interest was perplexing given the lefty reliever’s consistent effectiveness over the past few seasons. He’s carried that over into his second stint in the desert. Through 20 1/3 innings, Chafin owns a 3.10 ERA. He’s punched out 36% of opposing hitters on a huge 16.2% swinging strike percentage, both of which would be career-high marks. He’s not a prototypical fireballing reliever but he’s demonstrated he’s capable of missing bats and thriving in high-leverage situations for the past few years. The $6.5MM net decision on next year’s option looks more than reasonable if he keeps this up.

  • Zach Davies: $5.5MM mutual option ($300K buyout, rises to $500K with 16+ starts)

Davies has been limited to three starts by a left oblique strain. He has allowed eight runs with a modest 10:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 12 2/3 innings. There’s not much to go on yet in terms of 2023 performance but Davies looked like a borderline fifth starter the previous two years. The Diamondbacks have enough young pitching they seem likelier to buy him out unless the soft-tossing righty rediscovers his 2019-20 form for the stretch run.

  • Miguel Castro: $5MM option vests with 60+ appearances; would become $6MM player option with 40+ games finished (no buyout)

Castro has already pitched 26 times since signing with Arizona over the winter. He’s on pace to easily surpass the 60-appearance threshold needed to vest next year’s $5MM option if he can avoid the injured list. It could be a closer call as to whether he can turn that guaranteed $5MM salary into a $6MM player option; Castro has finished 12 games thus far, putting him just off the 40-game pace he’d need to do so. (He’s on pace for 36 games finished). Castro has been effective — a 2.22 ERA with roughly average strikeout, walk and swinging strike numbers through 24 1/3 innings — so vesting the player option and retesting the market isn’t out of the question.

Melancon struggled to a 4.66 ERA in 56 innings during his first season in Arizona. He hasn’t pitched this year on account of a Spring Training shoulder strain. Melancon might return in the second half but this is trending towards the team buying him out.

Colorado Rockies

Márquez underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this month. He’ll miss the majority of next season as he rehabs. A healthy Márquez would’ve made this an easy call for the Rockies to exercise but the procedure means they’ll buy him out. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rox try to bring him back on a lesser salary or a multi-year deal with an eye towards 2025.

Hand’s peripherals had fallen back between 2021-22 from his All-Star peak. He’s continued to keep runs off the board and seen a notable bounceback in his strikeout rate since a Spring Training deal with Colorado. Hand owns a 3.20 ERA through 19 2/3 frames while striking out 33.7% of batters faced on a decent 11.6% swinging strike percentage. The veteran southpaw has dominated left-handed hitters and is yet to allow a home run this season. If he maintains this form, he’ll be one of the top reliever trade candidates this summer. If Colorado hangs onto him, they could be faced with an interesting decision as to whether to keep him around for an extra $6.5MM next winter.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers signed Muncy to a $13.5MM deal last summer even as he was amidst his worst season since landing in L.A. They’ve been rewarded with a massive bounceback showing. Muncy is tied for second in the majors with 17 home runs. He’s only hitting .208 but carrying a strong .340 on-base percentage thanks to an elite 15.8% walk rate. The $10MM price point would be an easy decision for the Dodgers if Muncy keeps up anything approaching this pace.

Los Angeles brought Hudson back last summer on the heels of a season-ending ACL tear. The veteran reliever hasn’t recovered as quickly from that procedure as he’d hoped. Hudson hasn’t pitched yet this season. He told reporters last night he’ll throw a bullpen session this week but is without a timeline for a return to game action (via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times). It remains to be seen how he’ll look when he takes the mound.

  • Alex Reyes: $3MM team option with escalators ($100K buyout)

The Dodgers took a $1.1MM flier on Reyes after he lost the 2022 season to shoulder surgery. He’s on the 60-day injured list and not expected to be a factor until around the All-Star Break. This one remains to be determined based on his post-rehab form.

  • Blake Treinen (option value between $1-7MM dependent on time spent on IL)

Treinen underwent surgery to repair the rotator cuff and labrum in his throwing shoulder last November. He won’t pitch much, if at all, this season. Treinen’s contract contains an option with a floating value between $1MM and $7MM depending on how much time he spends on the injured list and the issue that puts him on the shelf. Its precise value is yet to be determined, but MLBTR has confirmed it’ll land towards the lower end of that range given Treinen’s surgery.

San Diego Padres

  • Nick Martinez: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option

Martinez has taken on a similar swing role as he served during his first year in San Diego. The right-hander started his first four outings and pitched reasonably well. He was nevertheless bumped back into relief thereafter. For the second consecutive season, Martinez has proven a key multi-inning arm out of the bullpen. He’s posted a 1.35 ERA with a quality 20:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 20 relief innings, holding opponents to a pitiful .240/.278/.267 batting line.

There’s little question of Martinez’s effectiveness in a relief role, though a $16MM average annual value could be pricy if the organization isn’t planning on giving him another look out of the rotation. Perhaps Martinez’s production over the final four months makes this a clearer decision for San Diego by season’s end. As of now, it looks like a borderline call — not too dissimilar from Martinez’s question of whether to opt out of three years and $18MM last winter. The Padres liked him enough to subsequently re-sign him to a $26MM guarantee with the complex option structure.

  • Michael Wacha: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option (with successive player options for 2025-26)

Wacha lingered in free agency last winter. Clubs seemed reluctant to buy into his solid results for the Red Sox, a reflection of middling strikeout and ground-ball numbers. Since landing in San Diego, he’s basically repeating last year’s script. The run prevention is excellent; he’s allowed a 3.45 ERA through 57 1/3 innings over ten starts. Wacha is again throwing strikes and keeping runs off the board despite roughly average strikeout and swinging strike rates.

Maintaining a mid-3.00s ERA for a second straight season might build confidence in his ability to outperform ERA estimators that suggest he’s more of a solid #4 starter than a mid-rotation arm. That said, Wacha doesn’t look all that different now than he did three months ago, when he signed a four-year guarantee with a $6.5MM average annual value. A jump to the $16MM per-year range could be a tougher sell for San Diego, although there’s little doubt Wacha would opt out of the final three years and $18.5MM on his contract if he keeps pitching like this and the Padres decline their end.

San Francisco Giants

Cobb has pitched well since signing a two-year deal with San Francisco over the 2021-22 offseason. He carries a 3.05 ERA through his first 11 starts this year. Cobb’s 60.6% ground-ball rate is stellar and he’s posted average strikeout and walk numbers (21.3% and 6.7%, respectively). An $8MM net decision would be an easy call for the Giants to exercise if Cobb maintains this pace. He’s dealt with injuries in the past but managed 149 2/3 innings over 28 starts last year and has avoided the IL in 2023.

All stats through play Monday.

Giants To Reinstate Luke Jackson

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The Giants are reinstating right-hander Luke Jackson from the injured list, reports Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News. The righty will be making his first appearance since the 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April of 2022. Infielder David Villar will be optioned to Triple-A Sacramento in an associated active roster move, reports Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (Twitter link). Jackson was on the 60-day injured list, so the club will still need to make a corresponding move to put him back onto the 40-man roster.

Jackson was an effective middle innings arm for the Braves before the Tommy John procedure. While he’d struggled in the abbreviated 2020 season, he posted sub-4.00 ERA seasons in the two surrounding full schedules. That included a sparkling 1.98 ERA through 63 2/3 innings in 2021. Jackson punched out a solid 26.8% of opponents while inducing grounders on well over half the batted balls he allowed.

That quality performance led the Giants to take a shot on Jackson in spite of last year’s lost season. San Francisco signed him to a somewhat surprising two-year, $11.5MM free agent guarantee over the winter. He’s making $3MM this year and will be paid a $6.5MM salary in 2024 and at least a $2MM buyout on a 2025 club option. That’s a reasonable price tag for a setup type but a roll of the dice on the 31-year-old recapturing his pre-surgery form. Jackson has made five rehab appearances with Sacramento, allowing four runs with eight strikeouts and four walks through 4 1/3 innings.

Villar entered the season as San Francisco’s expected third baseman. He’d performed well as a rookie following a late-season call in 2022. The right-handed hitter has had a rough start to his ’23 campaign, however. Over 108 plate appearances, he has hit just .135/.222/.292 with four home runs and a 32.4% strikeout rate. J.D. Davis has taken hold of the third base job and pushed Villar into a depth capacity.

Giants Place Thairo Estrada On 10-Day Injured List

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The Giants placed infielder Thairo Estrada on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to May 26) due to a left wrist sprain.  Infielder David Villar was recalled from Triple-A to take Estrada’s place on San Francisco’s roster.

Estrada has been dealing with the injury for a few days, as The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly writes that Estrada hurt himself during a swing in Wednesday’s 7-1 loss to the Twins.  After trying to tough it out on Thursday, Estrada was out of the lineup on Friday and will now need at least a 10-day hiatus to recover.  The good news is that an MRI revealed just inflammation and no structural damage in Estrada’s wrist.

Estrada has quietly been one of the better all-around players in baseball this season, as only 16 players have a higher fWAR than his 1.9 total.  Beyond hitting .301/.345/.466 with six homers and stealing 13 of 16 bases, Estrada’s versatility has also been a weapon for the Giants, as he got a lot of time at shortstop when Brandon Crawford was on the injured list earlier this season.  Most of the time, Estrada has settled in as San Francisco’s regular second baseman, and he has also made a few appearances in left field.  MLBTR’s Anthony Franco profiled Estrada in greater depth earlier this month, and how the Giants have gotten a ton of return out of a rather unheralded player since acquiring Estrada from the Yankees for cash considerations early in the 2021 season.

There’s no easy way to replicate Estrada’s production over even a 10-day stint, and given the Giants’ penchant for platoons, they probably won’t turn to a single player to replace Estrada.  Villar, Brett Wisely, Casey Schmitt, and Wilmer Flores could all pitch in at second base, though Schmitt has been seeing an increasing amount of time at shortstop in Crawford’s place.

Phillies Claim Cal Stevenson

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The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve claimed outfielder Cal Stevenson off waivers from the Giants. He’s been optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Philadelphia transferred Rule 5 right-hander Noah Song from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Stevenson originally came to the Giants from the A’s, coming over in exchange for cash. He went hitless in 12 plate appearances as a Giant and has just a .145/.259/.188 slash in 83 trips to the plate at the big league level. That’s an unsightly look, of course, but it comes in a tiny sample.

Down in the minors, he’s been a much more productive hitter. Stevenson touts a .271/.382/.386 batting line with seven home runs and 21 steals in 26 attempts. He’s walked at a hefty 15% clip in Triple-A against a lower-than-average 18.2% strikeout rate. Stevenson can play all three outfield spots, though the bulk of his work has come in center field.

The Phils don’t necessarily have a dire outfield need, with Kyle Schwarber, breakout 25-year-old Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos lining up from left to right, respectively. However, with Cristian Pache on the mend from surgery to repair a meniscus tear, Philadelphia also doesn’t have a true fourth outfielder. Veteran utilityman Josh Harrison is no stranger to the outfield corners, and rookie infielder/outfielder Dalton Guthrie has spent time in center field. However, Guthrie has more experience on the infield than in the outfield. Stevenson will give the Phillies a pure fourth outfield option who carries nearly 1800 professional innings of experience in center, plus another 1300 in the corners.

Giants To Acquire Jacob Nottingham From Mariners

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The Giants are acquiring catcher Jacob Nottingham from the Mariners, report Robert Murray and Jeff Young of FanSided. It’s not publicly known what the Mariners will receive in exchange. He’s not on a 40-man roster and won’t require a corresponding move.

Nottingham, 28, was signed by the Mariners to a minor league deal in the offseason. He’s played 17 games for Triple-A Tacoma this year, hitting .200/.294/.450 in that time. He has 53 games of major league experience, spread across the 2018-2021 seasons with the Brewers and Mariners. He hit .184/.277/.421 in 130 plate appearances in those major league contests. Last year, he was with the Orioles on a minor league deal and hit .229/.333/.425 in Triple-A but never got the call to the big leagues. Defensively, he has a tally of +2 Defensive Runs Saved in his brief time in the majors while FanGraphs ranks his framing as just a bit below league average.

The Giants have been shuffling through catchers this year, as they opened the season with Joey Bart, Roberto Pérez and Rule 5 pick Blake Sabol on the roster, the latter of whom also plays some outfield. Unfortunately, Pérez required season-ending shoulder surgery fairly early in the season and Bart has now joined him on the injured list with a groin strain. That leaves them with Sabol and the recently-promoted Patrick Bailey as their duo behind the plate, both of whom are in their first major league seasons. The addition of Nottingham will give the club a veteran depth option to call upon if needed.

Giants Sign Phoenix Sanders To Minor League Deal

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The Giants have signed right-hander Phoenix Sanders to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’s been assigned to the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats.

Sanders, 28 next month, was a Rays draft pick in 2017 and made his way to the majors with that club last year. He got into eight games out of Tampa’s bullpen, logging 14 2/3 innings with a 3.07 ERA. He struck out 21.1% of batters faced and walked 5.3%, getting grounders on 41.5% of balls in play. He also tossed 30 innings for their Triple-A club with a 5.40 ERA though his 3.91 FIP suggests some bad luck, supported by his .388 batting average on balls in play and 67.5% strand rate. He stuck out 27.9% of opponents at that level against a walk rate of just 1.6%.

The Rays put Sanders on waivers in August and he was claimed by the Orioles. They kept him in the minors and then passed him through waivers in September. He made nine appearances for their Triple-A team to start this year with an ERA of 2.00, striking out 31.4% of batters faced while walking 8.6%. Despite those solid results, he was released last week but has quickly found his next job with the Giants.

The bullpen hasn’t been a strong part of the roster in San Francisco this year, as the club’s relievers have a collective 4.90 ERA. That places them 28th out of the 30 teams in the league, ahead of just the White Sox and the A’s. Sanders will head to Sacramento and try to work his way back to the big leagues. If he succeeds, he still has options and less than a year of service time, allowing him to be utilized as a depth reliever for the foreseeable future.

Giants’ Thomas Szapucki Undergoing Thoracic Outlet Surgery

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Giants southpaw Thomas Szapucki is undergoing surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome today, the team informed reporters (including Maria Guardado of MLB.com). The club didn’t provide a recovery timetable, though it seems likely the left-hander will miss the majority or all of the 2023 season.

Szapucki has been on the 60-day injured list since Opening Day. He left a Spring Training outing with arm discomfort that apparently is related to the nerve condition. Thoracic outlet syndrome has become relatively common for pitchers in recent years. It’s a condition that typically requires the removal of part of a rib to reduce nerve pressure on the arm.

The track record for pitchers returning from thoracic outlet syndrome is mixed at best. Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly bounced back from the procedure in 2020 to turn in two-plus productive seasons. The likes of Matt Harvey, Tyson Ross and (to this point) Stephen Strasburg haven’t been so fortunate. Harvey and Ross never recaptured anything approaching their pre-TOS form, while Strasburg has only been able to pitch once since undergoing the surgery nearly two years ago due to various setbacks.

Obviously, the Giants and Szapucki are hopeful he’ll be able to recapture his pre-surgery stuff and avoid those kinds of long-term complications. One of four players acquired from the Mets last summer for Darin Ruf (a trade that looks like a coup for San Francisco given the production they’ve gotten out of corner infielder J.D. Davis), Szapucki pitched 10 times in relief down the stretch. He allowed only three runs in 13 1/3 innings, striking out 16 against four walks. Szapucki’s previous major league experience consisted of five innings in which he was tagged for 15 runs in Queens.

The 26-year-old Szapucki had been considered one of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Mets’ system since entering the professional ranks as a fifth round pick in 2015. He’s been a starter for the bulk of his minor league time, including opening 16 of 18 appearances for the Mets’ top affiliate in Syracuse last year. Szapucki will collect major league service and be paid around the MLB minimum rate while he’s on the injured list. He’s controllable through the 2028 season.

San Francisco also provided updates on a pair of players who landed on the injured list this morning. Righty Ross Stripling and catcher Joey Bart each went for imaging. Bart was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain (the lowest severity) of his left groin. Stripling, whose official diagnosis was a lower back strain, has no structural damage and will be reevaluated next week.

Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023

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It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…

Currently on a Major League Roster

Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate

Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.

At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.

Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate

The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.

The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.

Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate

Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.

Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.

Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate

Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.

Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.

Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate

The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.

Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.

Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.

Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate

Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.

Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.

Currently on the Major League Injured List

  • Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
  • Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
  • Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.

Currently in DFA Limbo

  • Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.

Already Returned to their Former Club

  • Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
  • Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
  • Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
  • Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
  • Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.

Giants Select Patrick Bailey, Designate Cal Stevenson

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The Giants announced a flurry of roster moves Friday, headlined by their selection of catcher Patrick Bailey’s contract from Triple-A Sacramento. San Francisco also selected the contract of righty Ryan Walker, designated outfielder Cal Stevenson for assignment and placed both catcher Joey Bart (groin strain) and right-hander Ross Stripling (back strain) on the 10-day and 15-day injured lists. Stevenson’s DFA opens one 40-man roster spot for Bailey, and a second was opened by recalling outfielder Heliot Ramos from Sacramento and placing him on the Major League 60-day injured list with a strained right oblique.

Bailey, 23, was the Giants’ top pick in the 2020 draft, coming off the board with the No. 13 overall selection. He had a decent debut campaign in their system a year later, batting a combined .265/.366/.429 across the Giants’ Rookie-ball, Low-A and High-A affiliates. He struggled at the final of those three stops (.185/.290/.296), but Bailey returned to High-A in 2022 and posted an improved .225/.342/.419 output. It still wasn’t a great showing, but the Giants moved him up to Double-A in 2023 anyhow, and he responded with a .333/.400/.481 slash in 14 games before being promoted again to Triple-A.

Bailey’s bat has again struggled following that quick promotion, but he’ll be aggressively promoted even further now that Bart is sidelined with an injury. Baseball America ranked him 27th among Giants farmhands heading into the season, lauding his defensive aptitude — specifically his receiving and blocking skills (though he also sports a strong 31% caught-stealing rate in the minors). The switch-hitting Bailey has struggled mightily from the right side of the dish in pro ball, hitting below .200 with just two of his 25 career home runs coming from that side of the dish.

Walker, 27, was the Giants’ 31st-rounder back in 2018. He’s never ranked among the organization’s top prospects but has steadily posted above-average numbers throughout his minor league tenure. He opened the 2023 season in Sacramento — his second Triple-A stint — and has come roaring out of the gates with 20 1/3 innings of 0.89 ERA ball. He’s punched out 31.1% of his opponents this season, has induced grounders at a 50% clip and has yet to surrender a home run. His 10.8% walk rate is higher than the Giants would like to see, but command hasn’t been a recurring issue, as evidenced by a career 7.7% walk rate in parts of five pro seasons.

The Giants acquired the 26-year-old Stevenson from the A’s in exchange for cash earlier this year and called him up to the big leagues when Mike Yastrzemski hit the injured list. He’s gone hitless in 12 plate appearances and is now a .145/.259/.188 hitter in a still-small sample of 83 Major League plate appearances. Stevenson’s track record in Triple-A is far, far better. He’s appeared in 101 games at the top minor league level and turned in a .271/.382/.386 line with seven homers while going 21-for-26 in stolen bases and walking nearly as often as he’s punched out (15% vs. 18.2%). He’s primarily been a center fielder but has experience in both corners. The Giants have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.

As for the slate of injuries announced by San Francisco, none had been heavily foreshadowed. Bart suited up behind the plate for the Giants’ most recent game — his eighth start at catcher in nine games — and went 1-for-3. He’s hitting just .237/.286/.295 on the season and has yet to solidify himself as the franchise catcher the organization envisioned when selecting him with the No. 2 overall pick back in 2018. Bailey’s ascension to the big leagues could put extra pressure on Bart, who’s in his final minor league option year in 2023.

Stripling signed a two-year, $25MM deal over the winter — one that allows him to opt back into free agency at season’s end. His early performance with the Giants makes that overwhelmingly unlikely. In 32 1/3 frames, the right-hander has been torched for a 7.24 ERA, thanks largely to a stunning 10 home runs surrendered in that time. Stripling excelled with the Blue Jays in 2022, pitching to a 3.01 ERA across 134 1/3 frames and allowing just 12 home runs in that time. It’s not clear at this time whether his back has been troubling him throughout the season, though that would certainly explain some of the right-hander’s astronomical downturn.

Ramos, meanwhile, had gone on the minor league injured list a bit more than a week ago, though there’d been no indication he was looking at an absence of this length. The former first-round pick (No. 19 overall in 2017) has struggled badly in 18 big league games dating back to last season, slashing just .152/.205/.196 in 49 trips to the plate. He hasn’t yet found his stride in Triple-A either, batting a combined .244/.313/.367 in a very hitter-friendly setting. He’s been a bit better so far in 2023, batting .262/.333/.385 in 75 plate appearances there, but his generally lackluster minor league performance has begun to obfuscate his long-term role with the club.

The Giants Are Getting The Best Out Of J.D. Davis

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There hasn’t been much doubt that J.D. Davis can hit. He got some very limited playing time with the Astros in 2017 and 2018 but burst onto the scene with the Mets after being acquired in a trade prior to the 2019 season. He went on to hit 22 home runs that year and slashed .307/.369/.527 for a wRC+ of 137. Defensively, the Mets put him in left field more often than his primary position of third base. He graded poorly in both spots but he still hit enough that he produced 2.5 wins above replacement on the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

Although 2019 was the “juiced ball” season, Davis wasn’t a one-year fluke at the plate, continuing to hit in the years since. His .247/.371/.389 line in the shortened 2020 season was a bit beneath the year before but still good enough for a 118 wRC+. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the injured list due to recurring issues in his left hand and only got into 73 games but still batted .285/.384/.436 for a 129 wRC+ when he was healthy enough to step up to the plate.

Last year, he was hitting .238/.324/.359 for the Mets through 66 games for a wRC+ of just 102 when the Giants took a flier on him, acquiring him alongside three other players in the deadline deal that sent Darin Ruf to Queens. The Elk Grove native quickly got things back on track after moving to the West Coast, slashing .263/.361/.496 down the stretch for a 142 wRC+.

Even with that strong finish, he didn’t have a secure hold on a full-time gig coming into this year. The Giants had seen one of their prospects, David Villar, perform well in his major league debut last year by hitting .231/.331/.455 in 52 games. Back in mid-February, the club’s president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said the Giants considered Villar to be their starting third baseman heading into Spring Training.

Despite all that solid work at the plate, the major concern about Davis has been his defense. From 2019 to 2022, Davis was considered to be worth -25 Defensive Runs Saved at third base, one of the five worst marks in the majors at that position for that time frame. Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average weren’t quite as negative but also graded him as being subpar.

The club clearly liked Davis enough to acquire him but they also wanted to see what they had in Villar, a player much younger and with more club control. That left Davis with some work to do, something that Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle discussed with him as Spring Training was just getting going. Davis talked about how he had been working with bench coach and infield/baserunning instructor Kai Correa on his defense, particularly his footwork, while manager Gabe Kapler highlighted his propensity for swinging and missing at pitches in the strike zone as his weak point on offense.

We’re now roughly three months removed from Zaidi declaring Villar the club’s third baseman and that profile on Davis, and the picture has completely changed since then. Davis hit a torrid .311/.354/.467 in the spring while Villar limped to a line of .143/.167/.286. Villar still got six starts at third base in the club’s first 10 regular season games but only got two more after that as he’s hit .148/.240/.318 on the year so far and was optioned to the minors a couple days ago.

Davis, meanwhile, has taken the job at the hot corner and is running off with it. He already has seven home runs and is slashing .294/.368/.492 for a wRC+ of 136, just a hair under his 2019 breakout. His average exit velocity is in the 95th percentile of qualified hitters and his hard hit rate 94th. His contact rate on pitches in the zone is 82.9%, the highest of his career. His 25% strikeout rate is still higher than average, but it’s a big improvement over the past two seasons, each of which saw him finish above 32%.

But perhaps most remarkably, his defensive grades have improved dramatically. DRS has Davis at league-average at third this year, no small feat considering his woeful grading in previous years. UZR gives him a grade of 1.1 for the season so far, one of the top 10 among major league third basemen. Outs Above Average currently has him at +4, trailing only Josh Rojas, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Eugenio Suárez at the hot corner. This is a small sample size of just 259 2/3 innings, so it’s too soon to decisively declare Davis a plus defender, but there’s seems to be a budding consensus that his glovework has taken a meaningful step forward.

Davis seems to be in peak form both at the plate and in the field, which has allowed him to produce 1.3 fWAR already in just 38 games, more than halfway to his career-high of 2.5 from that 2019 season. While the Giants are surely thrilled by those developments, it could lead them to a difficult decision a few months from now. Overall, the club has struggled to an 18-23 start to the season, putting them behind the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Padres in the National League West. There’s still plenty of time for the club to turn things around, but there’s a chance they may have to consider some selling when the trade deadline approaches.

Davis came into this season with between four and five years of service time. That means he can still be retained via arbitration for 2024 and isn’t an impending free agent. The club won’t feel they absolutely have to move him, but it would at least warrant some consideration if they find themselves outside the playoff race. Given his strong performance, year-and-a-half of control and modest $4.21MM salary this year, he would surely garner plenty of interest. There’s a handful of contenders with question marks at third base who would likely pick up the phone, such as the Twins, Phillies and Yankees. The Giants could flip him for some younger and cheaper players, then perhaps give Villar another shot at the big leagues in the latter months of the season. The alternative would be holding onto Davis and hoping for better results as a team next year before he reaches the open market.

Of course, the club will be hoping they play well enough over the next few months they don’t even have to consider that path. Despite their sluggish start, they’re only two games back of a Wild Card spot at the moment due to slow starts from other contenders like the Phillies, Mets and Padres. There’s no sense in shoveling dirt on their season just yet, but front offices have to consider all potential avenues and will surely be having conversations about how they want to proceed.

Time will tell how that plays out, but for now, it’s all good news. The Giants sent Ruf to the Mets and acquired Davis less than a year ago. Even if it were just a one-for-one swap, that deal already looks like a huge win, since Ruf has gone in the opposite direction since then. He was released by the Mets earlier this year, briefly returned to the Giants, and just yesterday signed with the Brewers. Of course, it wasn’t a one-for-one swap. The Giants also got Thomas Szapucki, Nick Zwack and Carson Seymour in the trade. If any of those pitchers can develop into useful pieces, it will be icing on a cake that is already very sweet thanks to Davis.

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