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Previewing 2021-22 Opt-Out Clauses & Player Options

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Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.

We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His  10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.

Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).

Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.

Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.

At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.

It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.

Mariners Expected To Promote Jarred Kelenic This Week

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The Mariners are expected to promote star outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic on Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. The plan is for Kelenic to be up for the beginning of the Mariners’ series against the Indians.

This is much-anticipated news for the Mariners and their fans, as the 21-year-old has done nothing but thrive in the minors since they acquired him from the Mets in the pre-2019 Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano blockbuster. The Mets used the sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft on Kelenic, who has since batted a superb .294/.370/.523 with 31 home runs in 771 minor league plate appearances. He’s off to a dazzling .444/.500/.778 start with two home runs in his first 20 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

The Mariners decided not to promote Kelenic at the start of this season, owing in part to a desire to get him some work in Triple-A ball and the left knee strain he suffered during the spring. Service time also seemed to play some role in it, as then-CEO Kevin Mather revealed in February the team offered Kelenic a contract extension. Mather went on to imply that Kelenic wasn’t going to crack their Opening Day roster after he rejected the M’s offer, but he’d be up by the end of April. By then, the Mariners would have secured an extra year of control over Kelenic. Mather’s comments set off a firestorm, leading agent Brodie Scoffield to say it was “made crystal clear to Jarred” he’d have already been in the majors had he taken the extension. Mather resigned his position after his statements came to light.

General manager Jerry Dipoto suggested last week that Kelenic was nearing a call-up to the bigs, and the hope is that he’ll provide an immediate spark for their offense. The Mariners have struggled recently, having dropped to 18-17 after a 12-7 start, and their offense ranks below average in both runs scored (19th) and wRC+ (22nd). Kelenic, for his part,  “is an elite young hitter who projects to be an offensive force,” according to Baseball America, which considers him the sport’s fourth-best prospect. Other outlets such as ESPN (No. 3), The Athletic (No. 4), MLB.com (No. 4) and FanGraphs (No. 5) are similarly bullish on Kelenic.

Now that he’s coming to the bigs, Kelenic will play a prominent role in a Seattle outfield that has received quality production from regulars Kyle Lewis, the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year, as well as Mitch Haniger. Kelenic should combine with those two to form an exciting trio in the present, while Seattle also has another high-end outfield prospect, Julio Rodriguez, waiting in the minor league wings.

The timing of Kelenic’s promotion puts him on track for Super Two status, meaning he’d be eligible for arbitration on four occasions. The Mariners are also slated to have control over Kelenic through the 2027 campaign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mariners Select JT Chargois, Place Ljay Newsome On Injured List

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The Mariners announced they’re selecting the contract of reliever JT Chargois. Right-hander Ljay Newsome has been placed on the 10-day injured list with right elbow inflammation.

Chargois, 30, was once a well-regarded relief prospect in the Twins’ and Dodgers’ systems. The righty has a power sinker/slider combination that allowed him to miss bats and induce ground balls at the major league level between 2016-19. Despite posting career-best strikeout and walk numbers in 2019, though, Chargois only managed a 6.33 ERA in 21 1/3 innings for Los Angeles. He then signed with the Rakuten Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but posted terrible numbers there last year, working to a 5.81 ERA with only 19 punchouts and 14 walks in 26 1/3 relief innings.

Seattle signed Chargois to a minor-league deal over the offseason, and he’s now in line for his first MLB action in two years. The opportunity presented itself after the Mariners used seven pitchers in last night’s 9-8 loss to the Rangers. Newsome left his appearance yesterday early with the aforementioned elbow injury (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). The 24-year-old swingman has a 7.98 ERA/3.56 SIERA in 14 2/3 innings this season.

Minor MLB Transactions: 5/7/21

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Let’s round up some minor moves from around the game…

  • The Mariners signed a trio of players to minor league deals: Justin Grimm, Brooks Pounders, and Caleb Joseph. Grimm surrendered nine earned runs in just four innings with the Brewers last season after spending 2019 in Triple-A. The 32-year-old owns a 5.14 career ERA in 360 2/3 innings since his debut with the Rangers in 2012. This will be his second go-round in Seattle: he made five appearances for the Mariners in 2019. Pounders did not make a big league appearance in 2020 after appearing for the Mets, Rockies, Angels, and Royals in the four seasons prior. Joseph is a depth catcher who spent the past two seasons with the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks after carving out significant playing time with the Orioles from 2014 to 2018.
  • The Brewers signed outfielder Mitch Longo to a minor league contract and assigned him to Double-A Biloxi. Noah Zavolas, meanwhile, was assigned to Triple-A Nashville, per the team. Zavalos posted a 2.98 ERA over 22 starts for the Brewers High-A affiliate in 2019. Longo, 26, was a 14th-round draft choice by Cleveland in 2016. He hit .248/.320/.370 across 365 plate appearances in Double-A back in 2019.
  • The Astros signed Brandon Lawson to a minor league deal and assigned him to Double-A, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). The 26-year-old right-hander was solid in 2019 with a 3.70 ERA in 129 innings for the Giants’ Double-A affiliate. He was drafted by the Rays in the 12th round of the 2016 draft when current Astros GM James Click was working in their front office.

Jerry Dipoto On Jarred Kelenic Timeline

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Mariners top prospect Jarred Kelenic made his Triple-A debut last night and did little to quell the growing fan clamor for his promotion. The 2018 No. 6 overall pick and centerpiece of the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano blockbuster ripped a pair of home runs to right field in his first minor league game since Sept. 2, 2019. (You can watch both blasts at these Twitter links, courtesy of MLB Pipeline and MiLB Mariners.)

The multi-homer showing came just hours after MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted that Kelenic was “likely” to debut this month — a timeline most already expected — which prompted some comments from Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto in a radio appearance on 710 ESPN (link via 710’s Brandon Gustafson).

Dipoto acknowledged that Kelenic is getting “closer and closer” to the big leagues and that a promotion will come “sooner than later.” He made clear that the organization wanted to see him get some work against Triple-A pitching. There’s surely some truth to that, because if service time were the only issue, Kelenic could’ve been called up more than two weeks ago. But with the Mariners slumping as a team, even before being no-hit by Orioles lefty John Means, the GM also noted that Kelenic “might add a spark to our offense if we give him that opportunity.”

Dipoto has spoken in the past about the importance of taking 30 to 40 games to evaluate the club with which they broke camp, and we’re now into that territory with generally lackluster results from the offense. Fellow top outfield prospect Taylor Trammell is hitting just .156/.261/.338 with a 43.8 percent strikeout rate. Neither Jose Marmolejos or Sam Haggerty has hit especially well during their time in left field; Mariners left fielders are hitting just .204/.316/.357 on the whole.

The Mariners have gotten a nice bounceback effort from Mitch Haniger in right field, as he’s returned from injury to bat .254/.300/.534 in his first 130 plate appearances. Kyle Lewis missed the first several weeks of the year on the injured list and has struggled to a .181/.231/.388 slash. That’s not a pretty result, but it’s only 52 plate appearances and as the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, he has a longer leash than others might.

There’s no denying that left field has been a black hole on an already sub-par offensive club, however. And with Haniger, Ty France and Kyle Seager all slowing down to varying extents after hot starts to the season, the Mariners’ offense looks increasingly lifeless. As a team, the Mariners are batting only .201/.280/.359. They rank last in the Majors in average, 29th in OBP and 26th in slugging percentage.

Despite the putrid offensive showing, though, the pitching and good timing on some of the few hits the Mariners have put together has helped them to a 17-15 record. That they’re currently sitting in second place only serves to create additional temptation to take a look at Kelenic, who currently ranks as the game’s No. 4 overall prospect at Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB.com. Plugging Kelenic into everyday at-bats in left field isn’t going to be a panacea for the team’s overarching offensive futility, even if he immediately meets expectations, but it’d be a step in the right direction.

Regaedless of when Kelenic debuts this year, the Mariners will be able to control him all the way through the 2027 season. A May promotion would put him on track to earn Super Two status, making him arbitration-eligible four times rather than the standard three, but his path to free agency has already been delayed.

Of course, his timeline to arbitration and to free agency could ultimately be rendered moot if the two sides eventually do come to terms on a long-term contract. Now-former Mariners president shined a spotlight on Kelenic by revealing earlier this year that he’d turned down a contract extension and would open the year in the minors. That comment prompted Kelenic and agent Brodie Scoffield to tell USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that the club had made clear to him that Kelenic would’ve been in the Majors last year had he taken the extension offer prior to the 2020 season. Many assumed that may have led to some burned bridges or harsh feelings, but Scoffield told MLBTR in the wake of that interview that Kelenic remained open to future proposals.

For now, the focus is on when Kelenic debuts in the Majors. If he meets or exceeds expectations at the big league level, however, it’d be a surprise if the team didn’t make another run at putting together an offer.

Health Notes: Sale, Middleton, Odor, Ona, Graterol

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Red Sox ace Chris Sale worked off a mound today for the first time in his recovery from March 2020 Tommy John surgery, Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic was among those to relay (Twitter link). There’s still no timetable for Sale’s potential return to game action, although getting on the mound obviously represents a notable step forward. At 18-13, the Red Sox are off to a strong start and could be a legitimate contender in a tough AL East. Boston’s rotation looks to be the weak point on the roster, but it’s held up fairly well so far. Sox starters have a middle-of-the-pack 4.02 ERA/4.00 SIERA over the season’s first month-plus.

Other health situations around the league:

  • This morning, the Mariners announced they’ve placed reliever Keynan Middleton on the 10-day injured list with a right biceps strain. Fellow righty Wyatt Mills was recalled in his place. Middleton, 27, has tossed 11 2/3 innings of five-run ball in the early going, striking out nine against six walks. Middleton, who underwent a Tommy John surgery in May 2018, spent the 2017-20 seasons with the division-rival Angels.
  • The Yankees placed infielder Rougned Odor on the 10-day injured list this afternoon. He’s dealing with a left knee sprain. Right-hander Albert Abreu was recalled to take his place on the active roster. Odor, acquired from the Rangers at the beginning of the regular season, hasn’t offered a whole lot offensively in the early going. He’s hitting just .164/.271/.361 over his first 70 plate appearances with New York. To his credit, Odor has massively improved upon his strikeout and walk rates from recent seasons though.
  • Padres outfielder Jorge Oña underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow yesterday, Dennis Lin of the Athletic was among those to pass along (Twitter link). He’s expected to be out of action for six to eight weeks. Oña, 24, made a very brief MLB debut last season, tallying 15 plate appearances over five games. Other than that limited major league time, Oña only has 103 trips to the plate above the low minors (in Double-A in 2019), so he likely would’ve started the year at Triple-A El Paso even if he’d been healthy.
  • Dodgers reliever Brusdar Graterol, placed on the injured list last week because of forearm tightness, was known to be headed for an MRI. Fortunately, testing showed no structural damage, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). That’s especially welcome news since the flamethrowing Graterol underwent a Tommy John procedure back in 2016. There’s still no indication when he might return to game action.

Mariners, Ryan Dull Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners have agreed to a minor league contract with veteran reliever Ryan Dull, tweets FanSided’s Robert Murray. He’ll presumably head to their Triple-A affiliate to join their bullpen.

Dull, 31, debuted with the A’s back in 2015 and had a huge 2016 season, delivering 74 1/3 innings of 2.42 ERA ball (3.33 SIERA) with what was then a well-above-average 25.2 percent strikeout rate and an excellent 5.2 percent walk rate. He’s never replicated that success, but Dull managed solid K/BB numbers and respectable fielding-independent marks in 2017-18.

A 2019 season split between the A’s, Yankees and Blue Jays, however, was an utter disaster for the righty. Dull tallied just 12 2/3 innings in the Majors that year and was slammed for 19 runs (18 earned) on 25 hits (including five homers) and seven walks with 15 strikeouts.

Dull hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since that time. He’d signed back with the Jays on a minor league deal last winter but wasn’t part of their 60-man player pool when play resumed last summer. Dull inked a deal with the Winnipeg Goldeneyes of the independent American Association back in January, but he’ll now return to affiliated ball just a couple of weeks before the American Association was set to commence its season.

Mariners relievers have been excellent this season, pitching to a collective 2.55 ERA that ranks third in the Majors, while their 3.62 FIP is good for sixth-best among MLB clubs. There won’t be an immediate spot for Dull, but he’ll give the club an experienced depth option as the organization looks to manage workloads on a generally young pitching staff after last year’s shortened schedule.

Red Sox Claim Brandon Brennan From Mariners

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The Red Sox have claimed right-hander Brandon Brennan off waivers from the Mariners.  Brennan has been assigned to Triple-A Worcester.  Righty Ryan Brasier was moved on the 60-day injured list to open up space for Brennan on Boston’s 40-man roster.

Seattle designated Brennan for assignment last week.  The 29-year-old righty came to the Mariners from the Rockies in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft, and posted a 4.56 ERA and an above-average 24% strikeout rate over 47 1/3 innings for the M’s in his 2019 rookie season.  Shoulder problems sidelined Brennan for over two and a half months of the 2019 season, and an oblique strain limited him to 7 1/3 innings in 2020.

Brennan hadn’t yet seen any MLB action this season, as he had been working at the Mariners’ alternate training site.  His addition will add a bit more relief depth to a Red Sox pen that has been without Brasier, who began the year on the IL due to a calf strain, and he was also recovering from a fractured pinky finger during the season.  It didn’t seem like Brasier was going to be back before June anyway, so his move to the 60-day IL is essentially just a procedural move on Boston’s part.

Mariners Place Casey Sadler On Injured List, Recall Erik Swanson

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The Mariners announced today that they have recalled Erik Swanson from their alternate site for his second stint of the year with the big-league club. Swanson takes Casey Sadler’s roster spot, who heads to the injured list with right shoulder inflammation. Sadler’s placement is retroactive to May 1st.

Sadler has been an asset for the M’s this season, picking up three holds while allowing just two earned runs in 11 innings of work. Though he’s not exactly a household name and he doesn’t boast the high velocity of many of his peers, Sadler has shown some promise as a middle reliever over the years. He owns a career 3.64 ERA in 96 1/3 innings spread out over six seasons dating back to 2014 with the Pirates, Rays, Dodgers, Cubs, and Mariners.

Swanson, 27, came to the Mariners from the Yankees as part of the James Paxton trade. He has one scoreless two-inning appearance this season, making 2021 the third consecutive season that he has appeared in the Majors with the Mariners. For his career, Swanson has a 6.38 ERA/6.06 FIP over 67 2/3 innings across 37 games (including eight starts).

Brewers Acquire Jacob Nottingham For Cash Considerations

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Let the circle be complete. The Brewers have acquired catcher Jacob Notthingham from the Mariners for cash considerations, per the Mariners (via Twitter). The Brewers designated Notthingham for assignment this past Wednesday, at which point the Mariners claimed him off waivers. But with Omar Narvaez headed to the injured list, the Brewers once again found themselves in need of a catcher. Nottingham did not appear in a game for the Mariners.

Nottingham has been placed on the Brewers’ active roster. He’ll make his season debut today against the Dodgers. Mario Feliciano, meanwhile, has been optioned back to Triple-A after little more than a day on the active roster, per Will Sammon of the Athletic (via Twitter). Feliciano walked and scored a run in his debut yesterday.

As for the Mariners, they pick up a little bit of cash for the honor of holding Nottingham’s rights for a couple of days. Seattle DFA’ed Nottingham themselves yesterday, so there’s little reason not to send Nottingham back to Milwaukee.

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