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Justin Turner, Jerry Dipoto Discuss State Of Mariners

By Darragh McDonald | March 6, 2025 at 5:36pm CDT

There seems to be a great deal of frustration surrounding the Mariners, which isn’t limited to the fanbase. Former Mariner Justin Turner sounded off on the situation to Bob Nightengale of USA Today yesterday, blasting the organization for its lack of aggression. That column led to Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times seeking the response of various players, who kept themselves anonymous. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto also spoke about the state of the franchise to Sam Blum of The Athletic in a piece published today, though the piece didn’t reference Turner’s comments or the USA Today piece and said the Dipoto interview actually took place “earlier” this spring.

“The fact that they missed the playoffs by one game, and didn’t go out and add an impact bat or two when you have the best pitching staff in baseball,” Turner said to Nightengale, “just seems absurd to me.”

The Mariners went 85-77 last year, a solid season and their fourth straight above .500. But as Turner mentioned, they narrowly missed the playoffs, just as they did in 2021 and 2023. Their postseason appearance in 2022 is their only one since 2001. Their decent-but-underwhelming results last year were the result of an imbalanced team. Their 3.49 earned run average was tied with Atlanta for best in the league. The starting staff’s 3.38 ERA was best in the majors. But the offense was more middling, with a .224/.311/.376 batting line as a club.

The club surely would have loved to add more offense but didn’t have significant resources to do so. Reporting throughout the winter indicated that the Mariners were going to increase payroll by around $15MM relative to last year. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimated their Opening Day payroll at $140MM. RosterResource projects them to go into 2025 at $152MM, a $12MM increase. Their free agent signings this winter have been a $3.5MM deal for Donovan Solano, a 37-year-old infielder, and bringing back Jorge Polanco. The M’s turned down a $12MM club option on Polanco, opting for the $750K buyout, but re-signed him via a one-year, $7.75MM deal with a player/vesting option.

Generally speaking, the club hasn’t been a big player in free agency. Cot’s hasn’t had the club’s payroll higher than 11th in the league in any of the past 15 seasons. They’ve been in the bottom half of the league in each of the past five years. In the past decade, they have only twice given a free agent a guarantee larger than $24MM. Yusei Kikuchi got a four-year, $56MM deal back in 2019, though he opted out after three years. Robbie Ray got a five-year, $115MM deal but was traded to the Giants after two years.

Turner was acquired from the Blue Jays at last year’s deadline and finished the year with the Mariners. According to Divish, the club offered him a deal to return, with the guarantee larger than the $6MM pact he eventually accepted from the Cubs. At the time of the offer from the M’s, Turner seemingly felt he could do better and didn’t accept, which prompted the M’s to pivot to Solano and Polanco.

Turner made clear that his criticism wasn’t mere sour grapes about not being re-signed. “Honestly, as much as I wanted to be back there,” Turner said to Nightengale, “if I was the only piece they brought back in, I would be saying the same thing: What the hell are we doing? Are you trying? There’s not going to a better time to go for it. So, I don’t know what they’re doing. I’m very confused. It’s a head-scratcher for me.”

Ultimately, the criticism is mostly geared towards ownership and the lack of resources it has provided to the front office. “I thought [Pete] Alonso was a slam-dunk,” Turner said. “How can you not go after him? You kidding me?” But Alonso re-signed with the Mets on a two-year, $54MM deal. He will get $30MM of that in the first year, which is double what the Mariners had to work with this winter. Turner emphasized that he didn’t hold Dipoto responsible for the parameters he was given.

“I think Jerry catches a bad rap for a lot of these trades and how crazy some of these trades have been,” Turner said. “But now being a part of it, I kind of understand. He doesn’t have any money to spend, so he’s got to create money. Like, OK, is it really Jerry’s fault?” Turner then referenced the 2021 trade wherein the M’s sent Kendall Graveman to the Astros for Abraham Toro, saying he “probably needed to trade guys just to be able to spend money in the offseason, which is nuts.”

Turner also expressed sympathy for the club’s frustrated supporters who are caught up in the situation. “I feel for them. They’ve got great fans. Their fans are amazing. They want to win so bad. The team is very profitable. And they don’t spend.”

It’s perhaps illustrative of a level of discontent that exists in the Seattle clubhouse but doesn’t always come out. Catcher Cal Raleigh expressed some frustration after the club’s disappointing 2023 season finished, though he later apologized. “We’ve got to commit to winning,” Raleigh said at that time, “to going and getting those players. You see other teams going out, going for it, getting big-time pitchers, getting big-time hitters. We have to do that to keep up.”

Turner is no longer in the organization and is also 40 years old, meaning he doesn’t have to fear any negative repercussions for speaking out. The incumbent Mariners who spoke to Divish refrained from going on the record but seemed to largely agree with Turner’s points.

Though the player frustration seemed to be largely pointed at ownership, many Seattle fans have their frustrations with Dipoto. His now-infamous “54%” comments from October of 2023 are sort of legendary among his haters. For those unfamiliar, after the club just missed the playoffs in October of 2023, Dipoto said that “teams that win 54 percent of the time always wind up in the postseason and they more often than not wind up in a World Series. … Nobody wants to hear ‘the goal this year is we’re going to win 54 percent of the time.’ But over time that type of mindset gets you there.”

Blum asked him about those comments and his general ability to speak in a manner that seems to rub people the wrong way. “People obviously didn’t understand it the way I expressed it,” Dipoto said. “My guess is that 98 percent of people didn’t actually listen to it. They just read it off a tweet. It’s what it is. Maybe they wouldn’t have understood it any better had they heard the whole thing. And that’s on me for poorly communicating what I think is a simple idea.”

Dipoto says he has scaled back his media appearances since he’s aware that he’s become something of a lightning rod. “Truly, I could say ‘hello,’” Dipoto said, “and it would turn into a thing right now.” He also expressed to Blum that the very interviewing he was giving would probably not be well received. “I’m gonna get roasted,” he said to Blum.

He did somewhat attempt to frame the lack of spending as a strategy, saying that most great teams have been “built on a foundation of draft, sign, develop or trade. That’s what we’ve communicated to our fans for a decade.” Though at the same time, he also said he’s aware there’s a desire for “The big move. The grand slam. The big free agent.” and that “maybe that’ll happen at some point” but they “didn’t think this was the right time, or the right group of players that fit for us.”

Regardless of how one feels about it, the club is largely banking on the Seattle lineup continuing a strong finish to the 2024 season. The club acquired both Turner and Randy Arozarena at the deadline last year. A few weeks later, they fired manager Scott Servais and hitting coach Jarret DeHart. Servais was replaced by Dan Wilson while Edgar Martínez took over as hitting coach. Martínez is still with the club but with the title of senior director, hitting strategy. He’s not expected to go on road trips, with Kevin Seitzer now to be the club’s primary hitting coach, though he will apparently report to Martínez.

For what it’s worth, the M’s hit .264/.347/.433 in the month of September. That translated to a 128 wRC+ for that month, a mark that trailed only the Dodgers. That was a huge upgrade over the .216/.304/.364 they hit from March to August. We’re talking about just one month, and some of Seattle’s opponents were out of contention and playing out the string. But if there was any meaningful improvement in there that the M’s could carry over, they could be in a better position than last year. If not, it could lead to another offseason of frustration in Seattle.

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MLBTR Podcast: Jose Quintana, Luis Gil’s Injury, The Nats’ TV Situation, Salary Floor Talk, And More!

By Darragh McDonald | March 5, 2025 at 11:58pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Brewers having an agreement with Jose Quintana (1:20)
  • Luis Gil of the Yankees to be shut down for at least six weeks (5:15)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • With MASN now solved and stadium naming rights and jersey patches on the way do you see the Nationals making the leap into big spenders sooner than later? (12:30)
  • Do you see the MLBPA pushing for a salary floor? (22:05)
  • Will the White Sox trade Luis Robert Jr. before the start of the regular season? (25:20)
  • While neither is particularly likely, is it more probable that the Pirates extend Paul Skenes or the Reds extend Elly De La Cruz? (27:40)
  • What is your opinion of the White Sox upper management and will they lose 100 games this year? (30:45)
  • The Mets are loaded with infield prospects. Do they trade Jeff McNeil to make room? (37:30)
  • With the Tigers’ outfield injuries, do they go get a right-handed bat? And who is available? (42:00)
  • With the Mariners bringing back most of their position players, what are the chances they get better production from them in 2025? (44:30)
  • Does David Bote have a legitimate shot to make the Dodgers’ roster? (50:35)
  • Why doesn’t MLB expand to 36 teams instead of just 32? (51:35)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Atlanta’s Pitching Depth, Iglesias, Jobe, Castillo, And More! – listen here
  • Alex Bregman, The Padres Add Players, And No Extension For Vlad Jr. – listen here
  • Pete Alonso’s Deal, And Potential Landing Spots For Bregman and Arenado – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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Mariners Claim Seth Martinez

By Mark Polishuk | March 2, 2025 at 3:07pm CDT

The Mariners announced that right-hander Seth Martinez was claimed off waivers from the Marlins.  Righty Jackson Kowar was placed on the 60-day injured list in Seattle’s corresponding roster move.

Miami designated Martinez for assignment earlier this week, and today’s move makes it four different organizations in a little under four months’ time for the 30-year-old reliever.  After spending his first four MLB seasons with the Astros, Martinez was designated for assignment in early November and claimed by the Diamondbacks.  He then went to the Marlins on another waiver claim on February 20 before being DFA’ed again a week later, and now Martinez finds himself back in the AL West.

Martinez is out of minor league options, which somewhat explains his carousel of an offseason.  With teams prizing flexibility within their bullpens, Martinez’s status makes him something of the proverbial 26th man, while also still having enough value that several teams are interested in having him on their rosters.

Over 111 appearances and 137 1/3 innings with Houston, Martinez often worked as a multi-inning reliever, so the Mariners would deploy him in that same capacity if he ends up on the Opening Day roster.  Martinez has a career 3.93 ERA, though his strikeout rate fell rather sharply from 23.1% in 2023 to just 16.2% last season.  Between that dropoff and other uninspiring Statcast metrics, the Astros felt comfortable in exposing Martinez to DFA waivers, leading to his busy winter of changing teams.

An innings-eating reliever always carries some usefulness, even on a Mariners team with an unusually durable starting rotation.  A good Spring Training performance might help Martinez break camp with the team, or he might find himself on the waiver wire yet again before Opening Day.

Kowar underwent a Tommy John surgery almost exactly one year ago, so he was expected to miss some time at the start of the 2025 season as he finishes up his rehab.  The 60-day IL placement means that Kowar won’t make his 2025 debut until late May at the earliest.

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10 Out Of Options Players To Watch This Spring

By Steve Adams | February 28, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

One of the most interesting elements of spring training every year, at least for those of us who feast on roster construction minutiae, is the collection of players who are out of minor league options. MLBTR just released a full list of such players earlier today.

In many instances, a player being out of minor league options is inconsequential. Justin Steele, Isaac Paredes and Evan Phillips are among the players who fit that description but are in no risk of losing their MLB roster spot. They're all key players on big league rosters who'd never be in danger of being sent down to the minors anyhow.

However, there are typically a handful of players every spring who are on the roster bubble with their current club but who could be a better fit on a team with less competition in their current position. Most of these players have already had big league opportunities with their current club but whether due to injury or poor performance (or both) have yet to firmly seize hold of a roster spot. As players exhaust their minor league options, they'll tend to face increased competition from younger players progressing through the minor league ranks and/or external additions made via trade or free agency. An out-of-options player who doesn't fit his current roster can still go on to find a more solid role and some success elsewhere. Joey Bart was in just this spot last year and after being squeezed out in San Francisco has emerged as Pittsburgh's starting catcher. The Yankees didn't have a spot for Ben Rortvedt, but he's the Rays' clear No. 2 catcher now.

Let's run through 10 names to keep an eye on this spring. Not all of these players will lose their roster spots, and even some who do might not wind up making an impact elsewhere. But each of the names listed here has some reason to hold a bit more intrigue than many of their out-of-options brethren (players listed alphabetically)...

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MLBTR Podcast: Atlanta’s Pitching Depth, Iglesias, Jobe, Castillo, And More!

By Darragh McDonald | February 26, 2025 at 11:55pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors for a mailbag episode. We spent the entire show answering questions from listeners, including…

  • Can the Braves seriously go into the season with this rotation depth? (1:50)
  • Could the Braves add to the bullpen before the season starts? (9:25)
  • Why is David Robertson not signed? (13:00)
  • Could the Mets and Jose Iglesias reunite on a one-year, $5MM deal with a vesting option? (17:10)
  • Should the Cubs have signed Jose Iglesias instead of Justin Turner? (24:35)
  • Could there be a battle forming for the final rotation spots for the Tigers between Casey Mize, Kenta Maeda and Jackson Jobe? (30:35)
  • Are the Mariners waiting for a pitching injury on another team to trade Luis Castillo? (38:05)
  • When a team like the Dodgers does significant deferrals, what year’s payroll does the money go on? (43:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Alex Bregman, The Padres Add Players, And No Extension For Vlad Jr. – listen here
  • Pete Alonso’s Deal, And Potential Landing Spots For Bregman and Arenado – listen here
  • Jack Flaherty Back To Detroit, Max Scherzer, And What’s Next For The Padres – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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Salary Details For Several Minor League Deals

By Steve Adams | February 26, 2025 at 12:32pm CDT

Every offseason, the primary focus for baseball fans is on trades and free agent activity. Naturally, major league free agent signings garner the majority of the attention and generate the most buzz. Minor league signees come with less fanfare, typically with good reason. They tend to be older veterans who are looking to extend their playing careers or perhaps younger names looking to rebound from an injury or a disappointing showing the prior season (sometimes the prior few seasons).

As spring training progresses, we’re seeing an uptick in minor league signings. Free agents who’ve lingered on the market and felt their leverage in negotiations dry up begin to concede and accept non-guaranteed pacts to get to camp in hopes of winning a roster spot.

Salary details for minor league signees isn’t as prominently reported on as it is for players signing guaranteed big league deals. The Associated Press just published a list of free agent signings throughout the winter, including within salary details for a handful of (mostly) recent minor league signings. Many of the salaries reported by the AP were already known and reflected here at MLBTR, but the report does include more than two dozen previously unreported base salaries for players on minor league deals. Here’s a quick rundown (player salary links point back to prior MLBTR posts detailing that minor league signing):

Blue Jays: Jacob Barnes, RHP, $1.4MM | Ryan Yarbrough, LHP, $2MM

Braves: Curt Casali, C, $1.25MM | Buck Farmer, RHP, $1MM

Brewers: Manuel Margot, OF, $1.3MM | Mark Canha, 1B/OF, $1.4MM

Cubs: Brooks Kriske, RHP, $900K | Travis Jankowski, OF, $1.25MM | Chris Flexen, RHP, $1.5MM

Diamondbacks: Garrett Hampson, INF/OF, $1.5MM | Scott McGough, RHP, $1.25MM

Dodgers: Luis Garcia, RHP, $1.5MM

Giants: Lou Trivino, RHP, $1.5MM

Mariners: Shintaro Fujinami, RHP, $1.3MM | Trevor Gott, RHP, $1.35MM

Padres: Yuli Gurriel, 1B, $1.35MM ($100K higher than initially reported)

Rangers: Nick Ahmed, SS, $1.25MM | Jesse Chavez, RHP, $1.25MM | David Buchanan, RHP, $1.375MM | Kevin Pillar, OF, $1MM

Red Sox: Matt Moore, LHP, $2MM

Royals: Luke Maile, C, $2MM | Ross Stripling, RHP, $1.75MM

White Sox: Brandon Drury, INF/OF, $2MM | Mike Clevinger, RHP, $1.5MM

A few things bear emphasizing. First, this is clearly not a comprehensive list of minor league signings throughout the league — nor is it even a comprehensive list of the listed teams’ non-roster invitees to camp. Secondly, many of these sums are of little consequence to the team. They’re not even guaranteed, after all, and even if a player makes the Opening Day roster and earns the full slate of his minor league salary, most of these salaries aren’t going to carry significant payroll ramifications.

That’s not true across the board, though. For instance, the Rangers are fully intent on remaining under the $241MM luxury tax threshold. At present, RosterResource projects them at $235.7MM of luxury obligations. Opting to select the contract of Buchanan or Chavez rather than allocating those innings to pre-arbitration players who’s being paid at league-minimum levels (or a few thousand dollars north of it) would inch the Rangers’ CBT number forward. They’re not going to hit the tax line even in if they wind up adding multiple NRIs to the actual roster, but selecting their contracts will further narrow the resources president of baseball ops Chris Young will have at his disposal for midseason dealings.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, are effectively seated right at the tax threshold. RosterResource has them with $241.4MM of luxury considerations. Team president Sam Kennedy said after signing Alex Bregman that he expects his team will be a CBT payor in 2025. As things stand, the Sox could duck back under that threshold, but selecting the contract of Moore, Adam Ottavino (also $2MM) or another prominent NRI would further signal ownership’s willingness to return to luxury tax status for the first time since 2022.

There’s probably no getting back under the tax line for the Blue Jays, who currently have a $273.3MM CBT number. However, the front office would presumably like to avoid reaching $281MM in tax obligations, as that’s the point at which Toronto’s top pick in the 2026 draft would be dropped by ten spots. In-season trades will have more of an effect on their tax number than decisions on NRIs like Barnes, Yarbrough, Eric Lauer and others, but it bears mentioning that the Blue Jays are around $8MM shy of what many clubs consider to be the most detrimental impact of straying to deep into CBT waters.

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Mariners, Garrett Hill Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | February 24, 2025 at 11:40pm CDT

The Mariners agreed to a minor league deal with reliever Garrett Hill, according to the MLB.com transaction tracker. The former Tigers righty had elected minor league free agency in November.

Hill, 29, pitched for Detroit between 2022-23. He logged 60 1/3 innings across 17 appearances two seasons ago, turning in a 4.03 ERA. His 15.2% strikeout rate and 11% walk percentage weren’t encouraging. That caught up to him the following year, as he allowed more than a run per inning with as many walks as strikeouts across 15 2/3 MLB frames. The Tigers dropped Hill from their 40-man roster after that season. They circled back rather quickly to re-sign him on a minor league pact.

The San Diego State product opened last season on the injured list. He was reinstated in late May and assigned to Double-A Erie. Hill struck out nearly a third of opposing hitters and earned a promotion to Triple-A Toledo a couple months later. He had a tougher time at the top minor league level. Hill allowed 4.76 earned runs per nine over 28 1/3 frames. His strikeout rate fell to 21.7% while his walks jumped to an alarming 19.4% clip.

Hill isn’t likely to get consideration for an Opening Day bullpen spot in Seattle. He’ll begin the season in the upper minors and look to harness the swing-and-miss stuff he’s shown in the minors. Hill has a 28.7% strikeout rate and a near-11% walk rate over six minor league campaigns.

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Mariners Sign Trevor Gott To Minor League Contract

By Mark Polishuk | February 23, 2025 at 5:24pm CDT

The Mariners signed right-hander Trevor Gott to a minor league deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.  Gott’s contract includes an invitation to Seattle’s big league spring camp.

This is Gott’s second stint with the M’s, as he previously joined the club on a one-year, $1.2MM guaranteed deal back in November 2022.  Gott went on to post a 4.03 ERA across 29 innings for the Mariners in 2023 before he and fellow righty Chris Flexen were traded to the Mets in July 2023.  Gott then had a 4.34 ERA in another 29 innings with New York before he was non-tendered last offseason, leading to a one-year, $1.5MM contract with the Athletics.

However, Gott never officially played for the A’s during this one season in Oakland, as Gott tore his UCL during Spring Training and underwent Tommy John surgery in late March.  Given the usual 13-15 month recovery period for such procedures, Gott projects to be ready to return to a big league mound at some point in May or June, if all goes well with the rehab.

Even though Gott’s deal with Seattle is non-guaranteed, it counts as a good sign in Gott’s rehab that the Mariners felt comfortable to extend an offer in the latter stages of the recovery process.  It’s basically a no-risk investment for the M’s, with the upside of landing a veteran arm at a discount price if Gott recovers as expected.

Gott has suited up for six different teams over his eight seasons in the Show, which is a pretty typical journeyman resume for a reliever who has good but not great velocity and strikeout ability.  Gott mostly relies on a sinker/fastball mix with both pitches sitting around 95mph, and as his best, the 32-year-old has been able to deliver results and eat bullpen innings.  Over his last two healthy seasons, Gott had a 4.17 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, and 6.9% walk rate in 103 2/3 combined innings with the Brewers, Mariners, and Mets.

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Giants Showed Interest In Luis Castillo Earlier In Offseason

By Anthony Franco | February 21, 2025 at 9:21pm CDT

The Giants were among the teams that engaged the Mariners earlier in the offseason in trade talks regrading Luis Castillo, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The clubs obviously did not line up on a deal and Castillo is expected to open the year in Seattle’s rotation.

Seattle entertained offers on the veteran righty as a means to potentially adding lineup help and creating payroll space which they could reinvest in the offense. The Mariners seemingly never gave much consideration to moving any of their younger top four starters: George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. Castillo is in a different spot, as he’s entering his age-32 season and on a significant contract. He’ll make $22.75MM annually for the next three years, while the deal also includes a vesting option for the ’28 campaign.

It’s not a bad contract. Castillo remains a very good starter. He turned in a 3.64 ERA with an above-average 24.3% strikeout percentage over 175 1/3 innings last year. It was his sixth consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showing. He has topped 150 innings in each of the last six full seasons. Castillo has had better than average strikeout rates throughout his career. His fastball still sits in the 95-96 MPH range. His salaries are expensive but in line with what comparable or slightly lesser pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi landed on three-year terms as free agents.

At the same time, the Mariners were looking both to offload the money and command upper-level hitting talent in return. They seemingly stuck to a high asking price, which aligns with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s repeated assertions that the front office was reluctant to subtract from the rotation.

Slusser writes that the Giants have unsurprisingly been unwilling to entertain including top first base prospect Bryce Eldridge in a trade. That’s not to say that the Mariners were necessarily insistent on including Eldridge in a Castillo deal, but the Giants are otherwise light on impact controllable hitting talent. The 20-year-old first baseman is the only San Francisco prospect to crack Baseball America’s Top 100 this offseason.

Tyler Fitzgerald and Heliot Ramos are coming off impressive seasons, but they’re each ticketed for everyday playing time in San Francisco. Both players have elevated strikeout rates that could have been a concern for Seattle. Marco Luciano’s prospect status has fallen thanks to defensive questions and strikeout concerns of his own. Luis Matos and Casey Schmitt probably project as depth pieces. While the Mariners presumably had varying levels of interest in some of those players, it’s understandable that the sides apparently couldn’t line up on value.

The Giants would up making a big move on the free agent front, signing Justin Verlander to a $15MM deal. The future Hall of Famer slots behind Logan Webb and alongside Robbie Ray in Bob Melvin’s staff. Jordan Hicks seems ticketed for the fourth starter role, with Kyle Harrison probably grabbing the final rotation spot. Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp, Keaton Winn and Mason Black are among the other options on the 40-man roster.

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Details On Nolan Arenado Trade Talks

By Darragh McDonald | February 21, 2025 at 4:30pm CDT

For much of the offseason, a Nolan Arenado trade seemed inevitable. But spring training is now rolling along and he’s still a Cardinal. Today, Katie Woo of The Athletic takes an extensive look at the twists and turns of the winter. Many of the details came out over the past few months but the piece also provides some new tidbits and extra context.

Arenado’s no-trade clause was clearly a key part of the offseason narrative and the club’s efforts to trade him. Reports throughout the winter suggested there was a narrow group of clubs he was willing to join, which Woo confirms in her overview. Arenado told president of baseball operations John Mozeliak that he was willing to waive his no-trade for five clubs: the Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox and Astros.

The first three clubs on that list never seemed especially interested. The Yankees were focused on Juan Soto at the start of the offseason. After missing out there, they pivoted to getting Max Fried, Devin Williams, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and didn’t seem keen on a switch. The Padres have Manny Machado at the hot corner. Arenado was reportedly willing to move to a new position but the Friars have budgetary concerns that made a fit tough regardless.

It’s well known by now that the Astros were interested and seemed to have a deal lined up, but Arenado blocked it. Reporting has suggested that Arenado was open to going to Houston but was a bit concerned by the club trading Kyle Tucker and seemingly moving on from Alex Bregman. Woo’s reporting aligns with that framing, with Arenado wanting some time to think about the possibility of becoming an Astro. She writes that he was aware they might move on while he was taking some time to ponder the idea, which is what happened. They quickly signed Christian Walker to cover first base, which effectively locked Isaac Paredes into the third base spot.

That left the Red Sox as the best landing spot for Arenado, with Boston genuinely interested. However, they bolstered their infield by waiting out Bregman and signing him, taking them out of the running for Arenado.

Woo reports that other clubs checked in about Arenado’s availability, including the Royals, Tigers, Mariners and Angels. Those were all sensible on-paper landing spots. The Royals were looking to add a big bat to the lineup and could bump Maikel Garcia to a utility role. The Tigers were involved in the Bregman market, making him a six-figure offer, clearly indicating a willingness to add an established third baseman ahead of prospect Jace Jung. The infield had been a target for the Mariners this winter, who eventually added Donovan Solano and re-signed Jorge Polanco. The Angels were looking to add at third base with Anthony Rendon no longer reliable, eventually signing Yoán Moncada. However, none of those clubs made progress with the Cardinals, as they were informed that Arenado wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade protection for them.

All of that led to Mozeliak recently declaring that Arenado would stay a Cardinal, suggesting that he would have to change his team preferences in order for a deal to come together. That doesn’t seem likely to come to pass. Arenado has a two-year-old kid and is apparently only open to uprooting his family under very specific circumstances. It’s long been reported that Arenado is primarily motivated by winning but it appears that his off-field circumstances are also playing a notable role in his decision making. “I don’t see myself changing that list ever,” Arenado said. “I have a family now. … To be willing to pick up my family and move them, it has to be something that’s worth it.”

That’s his right as a player with a no-trade clause, though it leaves the Cardinals in an awkward spot. They are doing a reset, trying to turn the franchise away from upgrading the big league roster to a focus more on player development. It’s unclear how long it will take them to make a full-throated attempt at competing again. For now, Arenado is still on the team, which his contract running through 2027. He’ll be 36 years old in the final year of that pact.

It’s possible a trade could come together at the deadline or in another offseason, but it seems it would have to involve a change at one of Arenado’s preferred destinations. Muncy is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, so perhaps a move to the Dodgers for 2026 is possible, though they could keep Muncy around for ’26 via a $10MM club option. Goldschmidt is only on a one-year deal, so the Yankees might have more interest in an infield addition next winter. Bregman could opt out of his Boston deal, though they have a number of infield prospects likely to be coming up this year. Perhaps the Padres would have interest next winter after Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease and Michael King hit free agency, with Robert Suarez having the change to opt-out as well. A significant injury or two could always change the calculus somewhere.

“If something comes up and it makes sense, I’ll certainly get with him and we’ll talk about it,” Mozeliak said over the weekend. “But it’s not something where I’m getting up every morning and chasing the waiver wire or chasing injuries. I think from our fan perspective, from our team perspective, from our perspective, he is a part of the Cardinals.”

It’s an interesting end to an offseason where Mozeliak regarded an Arenado trade as a top priority. The Cards wanted to reduce payroll and open up some playing time for younger players. They could have dropped the payroll in other ways, such as by trading guys like Ryan Helsley or Erick Fedde, but haven’t shown much interest in doing that in the short term. Perhaps the Cardinals will end up being one of the most interesting clubs to watch when the July deadline rolls around, whether Arenado is likely to move or not.

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