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Free Agent Profile: Kendrys Morales

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Kendrys Morales is one of the 15 best hitters on the free agent market this offseason.  And among proven middle of the order hitters on the market, only Morales can boast of playing the 2014 season at age 30.

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Strengths/Pros

Offensively, Morales doesn't stand out in any one aspect, but he doesn't have any major holes either.  He owns a .280 career average, .275 over the last two seasons.  He doesn't strike out a ton like Mike Napoli, and he's shown acceptable power unlike Justin Morneau or James Loney have in recent years.  Morales tied Napoli with 23 home runs in 2013, sixth among all free agents.  His power has been consistent since becoming a full-timer in '09, with a slugging percentage that never dipped below .449 and isolated power of .171 or better.

A switch-hitter, Morales doesn't have an extreme platoon split.  Over the last two years, he's hitting .269/.338/.448 against lefties and .278/.326/.460 against righties.

Morales has one particularly impressive offensive season to his credit, as he hit .306/.355/.569 with 34 home runs and 108 runs batted in in 2009 and finished fifth in the AL MVP voting.

Morales has youth on his side, having turned 30 in June.  He's younger than Napoli, Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, Marlon Byrd, Shin-Soo Choo, and Nelson Cruz.  The only younger free agent bat is Jacoby Ellsbury, who is viewed as a leadoff hitter and isn't in the same price bracket.

Weaknesses/Cons

Morales has a .275/.329/.457 batting line since 2012.  His OBP is slightly below-average for a first baseman or designated hitter, and his power production has been about average.  Agent Scott Boras blames the Mariners' home park, telling Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times in August, "A 20-homer season in Safeco is like a 30-homer season somewhere else."  I'm not sure if Boras was literally suggesting Morales' park cost him ten home runs.  I spoke to Dave Cameron of FanGraphs and U.S.S. Mariner, who suggested it would be more likely for the park to have cost Morales one or two home runs in 2013, especially with the fences having been moved in this year.  Furthermore, Morales actually hit for more power at Safeco than on the road in 2013.

Morales provides no value defensively and is likely limited to American League teams with an opening at the designated hitter spot.  He played 28 games at first base in 2012 and 31 in 2013, serving as DH the majority of the time.  An inability to play the field regularly sets the bar extra-high for offense, which is part of the reason Morales was valued by FanGraphs at just 1.7 wins above replacement in 2012 and 1.2 in 2013.  Among free agent position players this year, Morales' WAR isn't in the top 20.  Fangraphs' WAR pegs him as a $6-8MM player, yet the price tag will surely be higher.

Morales is one of the slowest players in baseball.  He cost the Mariners 5.5 runs on the basepaths in 2013, sixth-worst in the game.  Even in his standout 2009 season, he was the worst baserunner in MLB.

Morales' career took a major turn on May 29th, 2010.  He hit a walkoff grand slam against Brandon League, fracturing his ankle and lower tibia in his celebratory leap onto home plate.  His recovery required two surgical procedures, and he didn't return until the beginning of the 2012 season.  Morales seems fully recovered now, having played 134 games in 2012 and 156 in 2013.

In early October, Mariners GM Jack Zdurenick said his team will definitely make Morales a qualifying offer, which is worth $14.1MM for 2014.  A week later, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports wrote that Morales will turn down that offer.  

Personal

Morales played for the Cuban national team as a teenager, and successfully defected in 2004 at age 20 after more than ten failed attempts.  He drew interest from teams such as the Mets, Marlins, Indians, and Rangers before landing with the Angels.  Morales told Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today in 2009 he found the culture shock jarring, but became used to the lifestyle change.  In that article, which I should stress is four years old, Ortiz notes that Morales was hesitant to speak English and had limited but friendly communication with non-Spanish-speaking teammates.  More recently, I've heard that Morales leads by example in the clubhouse and gets along well with teammates.  Ortiz also mentions in the article that Morales is an only child who lost his father early in his life.  He is married and has three children.

Market

The Mariners expressed interest in extending Morales before the trade deadline, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, who says the team "balked at contract figures suggested by Boras and never made the player a formal offer."  "I would love to bring Kendrys back," Zduriencik said on ESPN 710's Bob and Groz show in early October.  Since the Mariners already consider Morales a $14MM player, they seem the team most likely to meet Boras' demands.

As a good player and not a great one, Morales' market could be hurt greatly with the draft pick cost attached.  Team like the Rangers and Orioles won't be keen on losing their first-round pick to sign Morales, while a club like the Twins may not even want to surrender their second-rounder.  Perhaps Boras will attempt to piggyback onto another free agent, aiming for a team that already lost a draft pick, as happened with Boras, the Indians, and Michael Bourn last winter.

Since pure designated hitters are rare in general, Morales' competition in terms of bat-only players is light, with names like Ibanez and Luke Scott.  If we include first basemen, players such as Mike Napoli, Morneau, Loney, Mike Morse, and Corey Hart enter the mix.

Expected Contract

Boras will likely set out seeking a four-year contract for Morales, aiming high as a starting point.  Contracts given to Cody Ross, Michael Cuddyer, and Josh Willingham the past two offseasons lend credence to the possibility of a three-year contract for Morales, though none of them were as far down the path toward full-blown DH nor did the signing teams lose a draft pick.  The best comparable might be Adam LaRoche, who was tied to draft pick compensation last offseason and was unable to get a third year.  Ultimately I think Morales will beat LaRoche's contract and sign a two-year, $28MM deal with a third-year vesting option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL West Notes: Mariners, Balfour, Tanaka, Astros

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There's been quite a bit of managerial buzz around the league with the large number of new openings, but all has been fairly quiet on the Mariners front until now. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Mariners will interview Athletics bench coach Chip Hale for their managerial vacancy. Hale hit .277/.346/.363 in 652 plate appearances over parts of seven Major League seasons (with all but 14 of his PAs coming in a Twins uniform). His impressive coaching background includes two years with the A's, two with the Mets and six seasons of minor league managerial experience with the D-Backs. Here's more out of the AL West…

  • The Athletics are "almost certain" to let Grant Balfour depart via free agency, writes MLB.com's Jane Lee in her latest Inbox column. The A's typically don't spend big money on relievers, believing them to be too volatile a commodity. The door remains slightly open due to heavy competition for Balfour on the open market, as Joe Nathan, Joaquin Benoit, Fernando Rodney and Brian Wilson will all be free agents as well. In profiling Balfour last week, I pegged his market value at a two-year, $18MM deal.
  • Within his own MLB.com Inbox column, T.R. Sullivan writes that the Rangers don't think as highly of Masahiro Tanaka as they did of Yu Darvish when they acquired his services two years ago.
  • The thumbprints of Astros GM Jeff Luhnow are all over the Cardinals, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. Luhnow says that he still has a bond with several of the Cardinals players he selected in the draft and tends to root for them, but he's currently focused on and excited for the Astros' future. Houston owner Jim Crane has repeatedly said that the Cards are the model franchise for the Astros.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

The Latest On Odrisamer Despaigne

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It's been a busy week for Cuban defectors, with Jose Dariel Abreu signing a record six-year, $68MM contract with the White Sox last week and Alexander Guerrero agreeing to a deal with the Dodgers for $28MM over four years earlier today.

Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald writes that another Cuban defector, right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne, has worked out for teams in Spain but plans to travel to Mexico to put on a bigger showcase for MLB clubs (Spanish link). According to Ebro, the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Mariners and Mets have all seen Despaigne throw in Barcelona, but the showcase in Mexico "will have a more official character."

Despaigne's agent, Jaime Torres (also the agent for Jose Contreras, Alexei Ramirez and Yasiel Puig), tells Ebro that he and his client will negotiate a big league contract with a team in Mexico:

"Everything's ready and the paperwork arrived quickly for Odrisamer. Since word got out about his escape, teams from the Majors began to get interested in the young man, and this interest has continued growing. In Mexico he'll try out in front of the scouts, and we'll negotiate the contract there."

Despaigne, who pitched this season at 26 years of age, is a veteran of eight seasons in Cuba's Serie Nacional. He owns a lifetime 51-39 record with a 3.65 ERA but was much better in his final season, posting an ERA of just 2.58. According to a recent report from Diario De Cuba, Despaigne has yet to be cleared by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

Thanks to MLBTR's Nick Collias for providing the translation for this post.

AL West Notes: Gray, Mariners, Luhnow, Ryan

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Sonny Gray underwent surgery on his left thumb today and is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training, the Athletics announced via their Twitter feed.  Gray said he would still be pitching if Oakland was in the ALCS, despite the tear in his thumb's UCL that he suffered on a Prince Fielder line drive in Game Five of the ALDS.  The A's obviously want Gray fit for 2014 given how impressive the right-hander looked in his rookie season — Gray posted a 2.67 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 3.35 K/BB over 12 regular season games (10 starts) and then posted a 2.08 ERA over 13 innings in two postseason starts.

Here's the latest from around the AL West…

  • Eric Wedge and the Mariners have different accounts of why exactly they parted ways, but CBS Sports' Jon Heyman notes it was clear that a change was necessary at manager given the differences between the two sides. 
  • Also in the piece, Heyman reports that the Mariners have Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo on their list of possible manager candidates.
  • The Mariners aren't likely to make a play for David Price this offseason, MLB.com's Greg Johns writes as part of a reader mailbag.  Seattle has been linked to Price in at least one rumor but Johns thinks if the M's are going to deal prospects for any major star, it will be for a big hitter.
  • Reid Ryan, the Astros' president of business operations and Nolan Ryan's son, tells MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that he hasn't spoken to his father about joining the 'Stros now that the elder Ryan has stepped down as the Rangers' CEO.  Astros owner Jim Crane would be open to Ryan taking on a role with the team, saying "We have Reid here, and [Nolan] is certainly welcome as a family member to hang out with us. I like Nolan, and at some point, if Nolan wanted to do something, we're all ears."
  • In AL West news from earlier today on MLBTR, you can check out Charlie Wilmoth's Offseason Outlook entry on the Rangers, a collection of Rangers notes, and Steve Adams' free agent profile of A's closer Grant Balfour.

Cafardo On Price, BoSox, Granderson, Loney, Dodgers

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While David Price has resigned himself to being traded, the Rays appear to be trying to figure out ways to make their ace the focal point of their pitching staff for many years to come, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo notes, however, the Rays' front office realizes it could be a losing battle, so a trade is likely with nearly half of baseball rumored to be interested in the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. "It's a big name, a big-time pitcher," one National League GM told Cafardo. "Even if you feel you don't need that level of pitcher, you look into it because he's so special and such a game changer. You do more than kick the tires. You try to make something happen, and I think you'll see teams that don't even need him step up." Here's more from Cafardo's column:

  • The Red Sox will likely trade one of their veteran starters to make room for their young arms. Cafardo suggests Jon Lester and Jake Peavy could be available while Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, and Felix Doubront are also vulnerable.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury is a perfect fit for the Mariners and Carlos Beltran likewise for the Orioles.
  • Curtis Granderson will likely receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and there's a strong possibility he would take it because he could post his biggest numbers at Yankee Stadium.
  • The Dodgers will make Andre Ethier and/or Matt Kemp available this winter. Kemp will come with injury concerns, but that shouldn't prevent a team from taking a chance on his talent.
  • James Loney has rebuilt his value with a strong season in Tampa (.299/.348/.430 with a 2.1 oWAR in 158 games and 598 plate appearances). Loney could find a market with the Rangers, if the Rays don't re-sign the free agent first baseman.
  • Reds pitching coach Bryan Price appears to be the front-runner to replace Dusty Baker as manager in Cincinnati while Nationals bench coach Randy Knorr is in a strong position to take over from Davey Johnson, unless ownership wants a bigger name as its new manager.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Piniella, Orioles, Beltran, Scherzer

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Cubs prospect Albert Almora declared 12 years ago his intention to become a major league star, Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune writes. "I'm a quiet kid, just go out and do what I have to do. I like to just shut up and not say anything, let my game do the talking. It has worked so far," Almora says. The Cubs took the outfielder sixth overall in last year's draft, and though Almora missed time this year with injuries, he's six for 10 with five runs and six RBIs in two Arizona Fall League games. On to more Saturday night links…

  • Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune spoke with former Stanford assistant coach Dean Stotz about A.J. Hinch, whom the Cubs are reportedly considering for their open manager position. While Hinch struggled during his previous tenure as manager of the Diamondbacks, Stotz, who coached Hinch in college at Stanford, praised his scouting and player development acumen and predicted that the next team that hires him "will be pleased."
  • The Mariners' purported interest in Lou Piniella for their manager vacancy was overblown, Ryan Divish of The News Tribune reports. A team source tells Divish that there was no "full-court press" to bring Piniella back.
  • Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun has more on Manny Machado's upcoming knee surgery, reporting that the Orioles initially hoped to rehab the tear to the third baseman's medial patellofemoral ligament but decided that doing so could result in a higher chance of an injury in the future. “The surgery is universally very successful in returning players back to play, including baseball players," Daryl Osbahr, the director of sports medicine research at MedStar Union Memorial Hospital, commented.
  • The time may be right for Cal Ripken Jr. to accept a managing job outside of Baltimore, Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun writes. Buck Showalter has a long-term deal in place as the Orioles' manager, providing cover from fan backlash for both the team and Ripken if the O's legend decides to manage another club. Ripken has been connected to the Nationals in recent days.
  • Mutual need for outfield production may lead to a bidding war between the Mets and the Phillies for Carlos Beltran, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News says. The Mets have money to spend and will look to improve upon an outfield that posted the worst OPS in the NL, while the Phillies may target Beltran, a switch hitter, for their lefty-heavy lineup, Murphy says.
  • Cardinals President Bill DeWitt III discussed his team's success and the support it receives from St. Louis in an interview with MLB.com
  • The Tigers may have to decide between keeping Max Scherzer for one more year or signing Miguel Cabrera to a new extension, according to Jeff Seidel of the Detroit Free Press. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected that Scherzer will make $13.6MM this offseason in his final year of arbitration. Recent reports suggest that the Tigers will consider trading Scherzer in the offseason.

AL Notes: Piniella, Rangers, Yankees, Hardy, Flaherty

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As the A's and Tigers battle to see who will face off against the Red Sox for the American League crown, let's check in around the league …

  • The Mariners went to former manager Lou Piniella in hopes that he would come out of retirement and take over the club, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The longtime skipper declined, however, leaving the M's with a long list of remaining possibilities to work through. Now 70, Piniella was on board for the franchise's best years in the mid-90's and early-aughts. As Rosenthal notes, he is the only Seattle manager to have stayed at the helm for more than four seasons, or to have drawn up a lineup card for a post-season game.
  • Meanwhile, the Rangers are all set at the top but are working through a series of internal shifts in the lower levels of the field staff and front office. In the dugout, manager Ron Washington and GM Jon Daniels are preparing to hire a bench coach and first base coach, reports the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Candidates for the former include former managers Eric Wedge and Jim Tracy. Among those wearing dress socks rather than stirrups, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports, a broader restructuring is underway.
  • Those expecting a full-blown Yankees collapse may be somewhat naive, writes ESPN.com's Buster Olney (subscription required). The club still has real talent on its roster and will, as ever, be able to exercise its unmatched financial muscle. Indeed, as I recently noted, the Yanks' current payroll commitments are still well short of the club's historical levels, or even the $189MM luxury tax threshold. At present, the Bombers are obligated for $89MM next year (only seventh-highest league-wide), just under $70MM for 2015 and 2016, and $26MM in 2017.
  • For the AL East-rival Orioles, Manny Machado's just-announced surgery could provide additional impetus for an extension of shortstop J.J. Hardy. The Orioles should do just that, says Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com. Another three-year extension is not out of line, in Dubroff's opinion. Hardy, 31, is entering the final season of a three-year, $21MM deal he inked with the O's in July 2011. He had yet another strong campaign in 2013, putting up a .263/.306/.433 line with 25 home runs and receiving excellent defensive reviews.
  • One possible temporary fill-in for Machado, utilityman Ryan Flaherty, was a rare Rule 5 draftee to make it in the bigs, Dubroff writes. The 27-year-old was a valuable contributor this year for Baltimore, netting 1.0 bWAR and 1.4 fWAR in 271 plate appearances while logging time all over the diamond. He will play for the league minimum again in 2014.

NL West Notes: Kemp, Price, CarGo, Tulo, Gray

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The Dodgers announced this week that Matt Kemp underwent surgery to repair the A-C joint in his left shoulder. Kemp, who was ruled out for the postseason due to an ankle injury, is expected to be ready for Spring Training, at which point the Dodgers will possess an interesting outfield logjam due to the presence of Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier. Here's more out of the NL West…

  • On yesterday's Baseball Tonight Podcast, ESPN's Buster Olney told colleague Tim Kurkjian that the Dodgers are expected to be the most aggressive team in pursuing a trade for David Price this offseason. A Price acquisition would give the Dodgers an unthinkably dominant front four of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Price and Hyun-jin Ryu. Olney also names the Mariners and Rangers as possibilities, though he questions whether or not Price would want to sign an extension in Seattle.
  • Rockies owner Dick Monfort says Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are staying put, writes Troy Renck of the Denver Post. "The plan is to keep them. Next year, yes. And my plan is to always keep them," Monfort said. "Is that the smartest thing in the world to do? I don't know. But for our fans I think it's the best thing to do."
  • Monfort also noted to Renck that the Rockies' payroll is expected to rise from this year's mark of $83.7MM to the $90-95MM range in 2014. He would like the team to add a starting pitcher and another big bat this offseason. MLBTR's Zach Links recently looked at the club's needs in the Colorado installment of the offseason outlook series.
  • MLB.com's Jim Callis called Rockies 2013 first-rounder Jonathan Gray "the class of the 2013 draft," saying that he has a higher ceiling than that of fellow Top 3 picks Mark Appel (Astros) and Kris Bryant (Cubs). Callis notes that the Rockies have had trouble developing pitching, but opines that Gray has clear ace potential and could reach the Majors in a hurry.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Henry Blanco Elects Free Agency

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THURSDAY: Blanco cleared waivers, declined his outright assignment and has elected free agency, the Mariners announced on Twitter.

TUESDAY: To make room for the newly-acquired Travis Witherspoon on the 40-man roster, the Mariners announced that they have designated catcher Henry Blanco for assignment.

Blanco, 42, slashed just .125/.215/.240 in 107 big league platea appearances this season.  Blanco joined Seattle in June, just days after he was cut loose by the Blue Jays.  Over 16 years in the majors, the well-traveled veteran owns a .223/.288/.361 line with the Cubs, D'Backs, Braves, Brewers, Twins, Mets, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Mariners, and Blue Jays.

To keep track of Blanco and other players in DFA limbo, check out MLBTR's DFA Tracker.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners could add a piece or two, but they're more than just a trade or free agent signing away from contention. Breakout performances from young players hold the key to the team's success in 2014.

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Arbitration Eligible Players

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Free Agents

The 2013 Seattle Mariners struggled at both run production and run prevention. While those are common characteristics of bad teams, this year’s Mariners squad was perhaps doubly disappointing in that many of the high-upside players the team expected to take steps forward failed to do so. GM Jack Zduriencik, who quietly signed a one-year extension that wasn't reported until much later in the season, will likely focus his offseason evaluations on which of his young players have earned a spot on the 2014 Opening Day roster. That roster will be led by a new manager, as Eric Wedge has said he will not return to the team.

If there’s a common thread to the Mariners’ struggles under Zduriencik, it’s an inability to score runs, and 2013 was no different. The club’s much-discussed decision to move in the outfield fences before the season didn’t produce the expected offensive gains, as Seattle’s total of 624 runs barely surpassed its 619-run tally from 2012. When Zduriencik sits down this winter to examine his roster for weak links on offense, first baseman Justin Smoak is likely to jump out as being part of the problem. It’s tempting to call his .238/.334/.412 line a step forward, but Smoak hit just .203/.294/.392 in the second half, results that are more in line with his career numbers. Put simply, Smoak’s upside is waning. He’ll turn 27 in December, and he’s approaching the 2,000 plate appearance mark with just a .227/.314/.386 career line. He likely gets another shot in 2014, if only because penciling Smoak in at first and hoping he can deliver on his promise probably gives the club a better shot at contention than what could be expected from a one-year stopgap solution. However, if the Mariners are hanging around near the bottom of the AL in runs scored at the All-Star break next year, continued underperformance from Smoak may be one reason why.

Dustin Ackley disappointed again, hitting just .253/.319/.341, but he came on strong in the second half with a .304/.374/.435 triple slash. That’s much more like the player the Mariners thought they were getting when they selected Ackley second overall in 2009. He also showed the ability to play a competent second base, and may vie with Nick Franklin for the starting job in spring training.  Ackley’s likely to continue to get plate appearances next year regardless, as the Mariners could also use him in the utility-type role that he took on for much of 2013.

Zduriencik was brought in with a reputation as a player development guru, and though the Mariners have yet to develop a superstar under his tenure, Brad Miller’s 2013 performance is reason for optimism. His .265/.318/.418 line in a half-season of play is downright impressive for a shortstop in today’s game. Franklin was another bright spot. The 2009 first-rounder posted a strong 10.2% walk rate and .157 isolated power in his first taste of the majors, though he cooled off after a hot June. If Miller and Franklin can build on their 2013 performances, the team’s woeful offensive projection improves considerably. Elsewhere around the infield, Kyle Seager has nailed down the third-base job after posting a total of 7 fWAR between 2012 and 2013. The Mariners may need to look outside the organization for catching help, as Mike Zunino struggled after his June callup and could likely use more time in the minors. If so, a one-year deal for a glove-first backstop may be in order.

Zduriencik has already indicated he plans to extend Kendrys Morales a qualifying offer, but Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported recently that Morales is likely to reject the offer in search of a multi-year deal. That doesn't mean Morales won't end up with the Mariners anyway, as the team apparently isn't ruling out going beyond one year for him. In fact, the Mariners may still be the most likely landing spot for Morales, as it doesn't seem likely that another club would be willing to forgo its first-round draft pick to sign him. His .277/.336/.449 line in 2013 is solid but underwhelming for a player likely limited to a full-time DH role.

Projecting Morales as Seattle's 2014 DH means Jesus Montero no longer has a viable path to the Opening Day roster. The Mariners appear to have given up on him as a catcher, and Smoak is likely to retain the first base job. While we’d be remiss to write him off entirely, he’ll likely have to play his way onto the big league club after a 2013 campaign marred by poor performance, injury and a suspension in connection with the Biogenesis scandal.

Zduriencik can add by subtracting in the outfield. Raul Ibanez helped prop up the Mariners’ flailing attack in 2013, belting 29 home runs, but his -17.1 UZR suggests that he’s a major defensive liability in left field. He ended the year at exactly zero fWAR despite all those homers. If the team commits to Morales at DH, there likely isn’t room on the roster for another all-bat, no-glove type. Improving on the 2013 Mariners’ MLB-worst -73 team UZR should be a major priority for the front office this winter.

Michael Saunders should return to the outfield despite taking a step back this year, while Franklin Gutierrez's future with the club is less certain. After missing significant time again in 2013, Gutierrez completed the guaranteed portion of the four-year, $20.25MM deal he signed with Seattle in 2010 having played in just 325 games. The club may choose to decline his $7.5MM option for 2014 and try to negotiate a deal with a lower salary. Overall, the outfield stands out as the area with the largest potential for improvement for the Mariners. The team was crippled in 2013 by below-replacement-level performances from veterans like Jason Bay (236 PA, -0.2 fWAR), Mike Morse (307 PA, -1.2 fWAR) and Endy Chavez (279 PA, -1.3 fWAR). If ownership is willing to spend – and the Mariners’ reported pursuit of Josh Hamilton last winter suggests that they might be – Scott Boras beckons with Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo. Otherwise, Curtis Granderson isn’t likely to require as steep of a commitment after sitting out much of 2013 with injuries, while Nate McLouth would come cheap and could provide defense and walks from a corner outfield spot.

If you’re wondering how a team with both Hisashi Iwakuma and Felix Hernandez on staff managed to allow the fifth-most runs among MLB clubs, look no further than the struggles of Aaron Harang (5.76 ERA, 120 1/3 IP) and Joe Saunders (5.26 ERA, 183 IP). As is the case with Bay and other veterans in the outfield, replacing those innings with merely average performances would make the Mariners a significantly better team in 2014. Those may be found among the litany of pitchers potentially available on one-year deals – Phil Hughes, for instance, would be a bounceback candidate away from the short porch in Yankee Stadium. Brandon Maurer also dragged down the staff with his 6.30 ERA in 90 innings, but he’s just 23 years old and posted relatively strong peripheral numbers, so he’s likely to remain in the conversation. Taijuan Walker and James Paxton showed signs that they may be able to give the club a boost in 2014.

Zduriencik will look to make major upgrades to the bullpen after the unit posted a 4.58 ERA in 2013, good for 29th in the majors. A full season of the good version of Danny Farquhar – the one who posted a 2.23 ERA in 32 1/3 second-half innings – in the back of the bullpen will go a long way toward achieving that goal. Charlie Furbush should also be back with his big strikeout totals and strong numbers against lefties. The Mariners will have to decide if they want to try to re-up with Oliver Perez, who could be in line for a raise from his $1.5MM 2013 salary after posting a 3.74 ERA in 53 innings. With a 5.49 ERA in 59 innings, Carter Capps looks to be headed for a minor league assignment, but his 18.8% HR/FB ratio suggests he was victimized by bad luck. Tom Wilhelmsen may hang around given his past success in the team’s closer role, but should be on a short leash after walking more than five batters per nine innings in 2013.

Despite a disappointing year, expect the Mariners’ Opening Day lineup in 2014 to look much like the one that closed out the 2013 season. Ownership could approve a big splash in free agency, but if the Mariners climb into contention in 2014, it will be the blossoming of young players like Walker, Ackley and Miller that pushes them there.

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