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Odds & Ends: Millwood, Mariners, A’s, Dunn

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As we settle in for a Tim Lincecum/Roy Oswalt pitching matchup in Houston tonight, here are some news items…

  • According to Fangraphs' Dave Cameron, Kevin Millwood is what Carl Pavano was at last year's trade deadline — a veteran starter whose high ERA hides some good peripheral numbers.
  • Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times thinks the Mariners' hitting problems aren't to be blamed on Safeco Field.
  • CSNBayArea.com's Mychael Urban has some hot-stove speculation about the Giants and A's, including hinting at "a major shakeup" coming to the Oakland roster.
  • Adam Dunn tells MLB.com's Bill Ladson that he doesn't want to be traded.
  • Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com calls the Orioles' trade for Jake Fox "pretty much the nail in the coffin" for Garrett Atkins' playing time and possibly his tenure in Baltimore altogether.  Ghiroli guesses that Atkins could be designated for assignment by as soon as Saturday when Brad Bergesen is ready to return to the majors.
  • John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Giants utilityman Mark DeRosa will undergo wrist surgery and will miss the rest of the season (Twitter link).  San Francisco signed DeRosa to a two-year, $12MM contract in December that was criticized as too costly given DeRosa's age (35) and the fact that he underwent wrist surgery last November.  DeRosa has since said that the first surgery didn't solve his wrist problems, thus accounting for his .537 OPS this season.
  • John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer thinks the Reds will pick up a reliever before the trade deadline (via Twitter).
  • Outfielder/first baseman David Winfree has signed a minor-league deal with Seattle, tweets Donnie Collins of the Scranton Times-Tribune.  Winfree was playing for the Yankees' Triple-A affiliate in Scranton before being released last week.
  • The Sports Bank blog looks at some of Chicago's options if the White Sox indeed try to acquire a left-handed hitter.

Minor League Transactions: Johnson, Mastny, Botts

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Tom Mastny and Jason Botts were among the former major leaguers to sign deals with big league clubs from June 8th-14th. Baseball America's Matt Eddy has the details:

  • Ben Johnson, one of the players the Padres sent the Mets for Heath Bell, has signed a deal with the Tigers. The outfielder, who has a .230/.313/.414 line in parts of three major league seasons, had been playing in the Golden League.
  • Scott Patterson, who played briefly with the Yankees and Padres in 2008, signed with the Mariners after posting an 18K/3BB ratio in the Atlantic League.
  • The Marlins turned to Tom Mastny in their search for relievers, signing the former Indian out of the Atlantic League. Mastny, 29, posted a 6.13 ERA in 94 innings with Cleveland from 2006-08.
  • The Royals released Jason Taylor four years after drafting him in the second round and signing him to a $763K deal.
  • The Nationals signed Jason Botts out of the Atlantic League. Botts, who has a minor league OPS of .875, spent parts of the 2005-08 seasons with the Rangers.
  • The Orioles and Royals, two of the organizations that have seven domestic minor league clubs, have pursued and signed non-drafted free agents aggressively.
  • Mike Curto reports (via Twitter) that the Astros acquired Tommy Everidge from the Mariners. Everidge appeared in 24 games for the A's last year.

Olney On Dodgers, Lee, Yankees

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One general manager told ESPN.com's Buster Olney that "it's becoming pretty clear" that the Dodgers won't be able to add pitching at the trade deadline. But Ed Price of AOL FanHouse heard from an MLB source that the Dodgers are scouting starters "aggressively" in preparation for possible trades. The Dodgers could use starting pitching given John Ely's last three starts and the injuries to Chad Billingsley and Carlos Monasterios, but executives appear to be divided on their ability to acquire it. Here are the rest of Olney's rumors:

  • Rival teams are waiting for the Mariners to indicate that they're willing to deal Cliff Lee. One GM says it will be "a win for the Mariners" if and when they do trade Lee, since Jack Zduriencik will probably obtain better prospects than the ones he gave up for the left-hander in December.
  • The Yankees are focused on improving their offense right now. Olney wonders if the Yanks could pursue a powerful infielder like Ty Wigginton. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports listed some easier-to-obtain infielders yesterday.

Heyman On Lee, Yankees, Harper

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The Cubs' acquisition of Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley, the Tigers' decision to let Magglio Ordonez's 2010 option vest and the Yankees' decision to put Phil Hughes in the starting rotation all make Jon Heyman's list of the year's best non-free agent moves. Here are Heyman's latest rumors, from SI.com:

  • Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik isn't waving the white flag yet. He says the AL West is winnable and wants to see how the M's play "in the next couple weeks" before deciding whether to sell.
  • Every executive Heyman spoke to expects Cliff Lee to choose free agency over an in-season extension, no matter what uniform he's wearing this summer.
  • The Yankees now seem like the favorites to sign Lee this winter, but could they acquire the lefty during the season? They will call the Mariners in case they like the asking price for Lee, but the Yanks don't seem like a fit.
  • Bryce Harper will look for a record bonus, according to an NL executive. Heyman's sources say Harper will be aiming for considerably more than $12MM. Stephen Strasburg, who signed for $15.1MM last summer, could be considered a bargain since he has generated lots of excitement (and revenue) in Washington. Harper and agent Scott Boras can point to the buzz around Strasburg in their negotiations with the Nats.

Rosenthal On Yankees, Oswalt, White Sox, Beltre

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The Yankees are not actively looking for a utility infielder, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal names Willie Bloomquist, John McDonald and Jayson Nix as options the Yanks could consider should they decide that they want more experience than Kevin Russo and Ramiro Pena can offer. Here are the rest of Rosenthal's rumors:

  • Adrian Beltre will almost certainly reject his player option after the season and re-enter free agency. He has been one of the game's best players this year, rating characteristically well on defense (according to UZR) and hitting .336/.371/.528.
  • The Mariners won't necessarily get a first round pick in next year's draft if they hold onto Cliff Lee. First of all, a losing team could sign Lee (the first 15 picks are protected). Secondly, a team could sign Lee and a free agent who ranks higher under the Elias system. That would mean the Mariners get a supplementary rounder and a second rounder.
  • If the Rangers are sold before the winter, they could be a potential landing spot for Carl Crawford, one executive suggested.
  • Rosenthal hears that Astros owner Drayton McLane is not against the idea of trading Roy Oswalt to Texas, though the Rangers' ability to take on payroll and the pitcher's no-trade clause could prevent a deal from going through.
  • The Marlins inquired on Matt Thornton back when the White Sox were sellers. Now, the White Sox would not consider dealing the left-hander.
  • If White Sox GM Kenny Williams becomes a buyer, he may pursue a left-handed bat.
  • The Mariners want major league or major league-ready hitters for Cliff Lee, but the Dodgers' best prospects are a few years away from the majors.
  • The Rockies are interested in Ty Wigginton, according to Rosenthal's colleague, Tracy Ringolsby.
  • The Rays will look for impact players at the trade deadline.

Using Postseason Odds To Identify Sellers

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Buyers and sellers can be hard to identify this time of year, since so many teams are often within a few games of a playoff spot. It's not even July yet, but a number of clubs have extremely slim odds of becoming contenders and appear likely to sell. Here are the teams that have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs in 2010, according to the postseason odds report at Baseball Prospectus.

  • Orioles
  • Royals
  • Indians
  • Mariners
  • Nationals
  • Astros
  • Pirates
  • Diamondbacks

Other than those eight clubs, the A's (7% chance of making the playoffs), White Sox (6%), Cubs (5%) and Brewers (2%) are potential sellers to watch. The White Sox, winners of ten of their last 12, have dramatically improved their chances of playing meaningful games down the stretch. They have shown that anything is possible, but the eight teams listed above seem like good bets to become sellers within the next six weeks. 

In case you're wondering, BP suggests the Rangers (81%) are the safest bet to make the playoffs.

Rangers Would Trade Within Division

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Rangers fans hoping for a Cliff Lee acquisition can breathe a sigh of relief. GM Jon Daniels told Anthony Andro and Jeff Wilson of the Dallas Morning News that the team would be willing to deal within the AL West.

"I'm not opposed to trading in the division, if it's the best thing for our club," Daniels said.

MLB.com reported last week that the Rangers had inquired on Lee. The Mariners don't appear to be shopping him and there's no guarantee that they would trade within the division if they make him available. Lee will become a free agent after the season, so the M's would presumably be open to trading with the Rangers if they don't see themselves contending in 2010. 

Rangers manager Ron Washington said he's happy with the team's current rotation, which features Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson along with Scott Feldman, Tommy Hunter and, in Rich Harden's absence, Dustin Nippert. But that doesn't mean Washington would be opposed to adding an ace.

"If we don't, we can't concern ourselves with something we don't have," Washington said. "But certainly we want a front-line starter."

Lee currently profiles as a Type A free agent, so his team will have the chance to obtain a pair of top picks in next year's draft.

Ian Snell Clears Waivers

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SUNDAY: Snell has cleared waivers and accepted a minor league assignment to Triple-A Tacoma, according to a team press release.

TUESDAY: The Mariners designated Ian Snell for assignment and called up Brian Sweeney, according to the team. Snell, who came to Seattle last summer in the Jack Wilson trade, started respectably for the Mariners, but has been ineffective of late. He has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last four appearances with 11 walks, five strikeouts and a 11.77 ERA in that time.

For the season, the 28-year-old right-hander has a 6.41 ERA with 5.1 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 in 46.1 innings. Snell got off to a similar start last year before the Pirates demoted him to Triple A and saw him dominate for six starts. Snell has promise, but his recent struggles suggest he isn't close to fulfilling it.

Cafardo’s Latest: Oswalt, DeJesus, Aardsma, LaRoche

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There are a handful of big names that could be moved before this July's trading deadline, and Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe opens his latest column by taking a look at some of the possibilities. Let's check out the highlights from Cafardo's piece….

  • There's skepticism within the Astros' organization that owner Drayton McLane would want to trade Roy Oswalt to the Rangers, baseball's other Texas team.
  • The return the Royals are requesting in exchange for David DeJesus is higher than any team is willing to pay for now.
  • Mariners closer David Aardsma is "already drawing a lot of interest."
  • Pedro Feliz, Willie Bloomquist, and Jay Payton could be small-scale trade bait.
  • Adam LaRoche on his brief time as a Red Sox: "The ballpark was perfectly suited for the way I swing, and it would have been nice to have stayed there and see what would have happened over a full year."

Olney On Lee, Carmona, Rockies, Torre

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In his newest blog post at ESPN.com (Insider-only link), Buster Olney tells the story of a phone call Michael Young made to Rangers GM Jon Daniels last summer. Just before the trade deadline, Young dialed up Daniels to tell him the players were happy with the young talent on the roster, suggesting that giving up the farm for someone like Roy Halladay wasn't necessary.

"Do what you have to do," Young told Daniels. "But don't do something just to appease us down here."

Here are Olney's other hot stove notes:

  • The Mariners have yet to shop Cliff Lee, but will soon make a decision about his availability (Twitter link).
  • The Mets are interested in Fausto Carmona, who is under contract beyond this year, unlike many of the oft-mentioned pitchers on the trade market. Olney warns that the "Oliver Perez factor" is in play, meaning that if the Mets acquired Carmona, it's unclear how he'd adjust to pitching in baseball's biggest market.
  • A hitter like Aaron Hill or Dan Uggla would fit very nicely in Colorado right now, though neither the Blue Jays or Marlins have indicated yet that they're willing to sell. Olney figures that the Rockies will try to avoid making a trade, moving forward with their current roster until Troy Tulowitzki returns.
  • As we heard earlier in the week from SI.com's Jon Heyman, Joe Torre appears unlikely to manage the Dodgers next season. "There are a couple of folks in power who are ready to turn the managerial page," according to Olney.
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