The Mariners’ Quiet Offseason Bullpen Upgrades
The Mariners hold a tight lead in the AL West with less than a month to go. While certainly not assured, they’ve got a real shot at securing their first division title in over two decades.
While an offensive explosion in the second half is a big part of that success, Seattle’s pitching staff kept them afloat while the lineup was struggling for the bulk of the year. The M’s rotation deservedly draws plenty of praise, but their bullpen has arguably been even better.
Only the Yankees have gotten a lower ERA out of their bullpen than Seattle, whose relievers are allowing 3.43 earned runs per nine. The Astros’ group is the only one with a better strikeout rate than the M’s 26.5% clip; that’s also true of their 12.9% swinging strike percentage. Only the Yankees and Cardinals have kept the ball on the ground more frequently.
Seattle’s relief corps has been excellent across the board. They were confident enough in their relievers to trade closer Paul Sewald for controllable offensive help at the deadline. Thus far, they’ve been proven right in their evaluation. Since the Sewald deal, only the Dodgers and Braves have a lower bullpen ERA.
This production isn’t new. The Mariners had a top ten bullpen in both 2021 and ’22. It’s rare consistency for the area of the roster that tends to be the most volatile. The M’s have found that success despite essentially not investing in the bullpen. Their only major league free agent signings of relievers of the past two offseasons have been low-cost pickups of Sergio Romo and Trevor Gott, neither of whom remains on the roster.
Instead, Seattle has built their bullpen through waivers and trades. The biggest additions have come at the expense of the Padres. The M’s acquired Andrés Muñoz as part of the lopsided Austin Nola/Ty France seven-player swap at the 2020 deadline; Muñoz was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time. A day later, Seattle sent middle reliever Taylor Williams to San Diego for then-prospect Matt Brash.
Yet the Mariners have constructed their bullpen on far more than that two-day stretch from three seasons back. As recently as last winter, Seattle plucked a trio of quality relievers from other clubs at little cost.
Justin Topa (controllable through 2026)
None of Seattle’s offseason moves has worked quite as well as the Topa pickup. The M’s acquired the 32-year-old righty in a January trade that sent minor league pitcher Joseph Hernandez to Milwaukee. The move didn’t generate many headlines at the time, as injuries and middling results had kept Topa to 17 appearances for the Brewers between 2020-22. Since landing in Seattle, he has been one of the best relievers in the American League.
Over 55 1/3 frames, he carries a 2.11 ERA. While Topa’s 22.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% swinging strike rate are each fringy, his 95 MPH sinker has enabled him to keep the ball on the ground at a huge 57.7% clip. He has handled hitters from both sides of the dish and kept his walks to a minuscule 6.3% rate. Topa has held 22 leads and saved a pair of games.
He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next offseason. The M’s can control him for three seasons beyond this one, essentially the entire back end of his expected prime. It remains to be seen whether Topa will stay healthy for multiple seasons. An injury history that included two Tommy John surgeries and flexor tendon surgery is among the reasons that Milwaukee moved on from him. Even if this winds up being his most productive season, this trade will very likely go down as a win for Seattle.
Hernandez has logged 43 innings of 3.98 ERA ball as a 23-year-old for Milwaukee’s High-A affiliate. He’s striking out just 17.8% of batters faced against a huge 13.6% walk rate. He didn’t appear among Baseball America’s midseason ranking of the Brewers’ top 30 prospects and will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for a second time this winter if not added to the 40-man roster.
Gabe Speier (controllable through 2027)
Seattle grabbed Speier off waivers from the Royals at the start of the offseason. As was the case with Topa, the 28-year-old southpaw had nondescript results in scattered time before landing in Seattle. Speier appeared at the major league level with the Royals each year from 2019-22 but never reached 20 MLB innings in a season. He posted a cumulative 3.83 ERA without missing many bats and had been blitzed for a 14.51 ERA over 30 Triple-A outings a year ago.
Given the astonishingly poor minor league results, it’s easy to understand why K.C. put him on waivers. Yet Speier has broken through at the big league level with Seattle, turning in 45 2/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball. He’s striking out almost 30% of opposing hitters after running a 20.2% strikeout rate for Kansas City. Speier has walked fewer than 4% of opponents while keeping the ball on the ground at a huge 56.9% clip.
Speier isn’t as complete a pitcher as Topa. He’s best suited in favorable platoon situations, with right-handed hitters able to elevate the ball against him, leading to some home run issues. Speier has been a nightmare for opposing southpaws, though. He’s running a 26:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 85 plate appearances against lefties. Left-handed hitters have hit 70% of their batted balls on the ground.
It seems directly tied to an approach change, as Speier has dramatically upped the use of his sinker against same-handed batters while cutting back on his slider. He’d seemingly gotten too predictable last season, using his slider quite often when he got in favorable counts. He’s now keeping hitters honest with the fastball even when he gets ahead, both keeping the ball on the ground more frequently and making the slider a more effective complementary offering when he does go to it.
Tayler Saucedo (controllable through 2027)
Yet another sinkerballer claimed off waivers, Saucedo joined the Seattle organization on a claim from the Mets in January. He’d never played for New York, who had snagged him from the Blue Jays earlier in the winter. Saucedo had posted a 5.40 ERA in 28 1/3 innings over parts of two seasons for Toronto.
The 30-year-old lefty has tallied a career-high workload in the Pacific Northwest. Over 42 1/3 frames, he has posted a 3.19 ERA. Saucedo hasn’t shown the same command as Topa or Speier, but he’s inducing grounders at a 60.9% clip that even surpasses the rates of his teammates. While his 21.3% strikeout rate is a little below average, he’s getting swinging strikes on a strong 13.6% of his offerings.
Saucedo’s strikeout and walk marks are far better against same-handed opponents. He has been adept at keeping the ball on the ground against hitters from either side of the dish. The M’s are probably best served keeping him away from opposing teams’ top righty bats, though they have enough bullpen depth to deploy him situationally when his ground-ball ability is most valuable.
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None of Topa, Speier or Saucedo were headline-grabbing acquisitions. They’re likely still not familiar names to many fans outside Seattle. Yet they’ve been productive moves on the margins for the M’s front office. Topa cost a minor league pitcher who is struggling in High-A. Speier and Saucedo were acquired for no more than a waiver fee. All three pitchers are playing for around the minimum salary.
The trio has turned in a 2.95 ERA while holding opponents to a .241/.301/.328 batting line over 143 1/3 combined innings. While not the flashiest performers, they’ve been the latest effective bullpen finds for a Seattle front office that has hit on quite a few low-cost relievers in recent years. It’s among the reasons they felt they could trade their closer without punting the season. With a month left to play, their bullpen depth has kept up its end of the bargain, leaving the M’s right in the thick of the division race.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Athletics Claim Devin Sweet From Mariners
The A’s have claimed right-hander Devin Sweet off waivers from the Mariners. Sweet was designated for assignment earlier this week.
The 26-year-old made his Major League debut this season, appearing in two games with Seattle and posting two innings (with a 9.00 ERA). An undrafted free agent in 2018, Sweet is changing teams for the first time in his pro career, as he has a 3.67 ERA over 326 1/3 career innings in the Mariners’ farm system.
Those numbers include only seven innings at the Triple-A level, as Sweet was actually promoted to the majors from Double-A Arkansas for his two MLB games before he ever pitched for Triple-A Tacoma. He got the Mariners’ attention with a 1.54 ERA, 34.6% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate over 35 innings of Double-A ball, a decided step up from his work in Arkansas in 2021-22. Most prominently, Sweet showed great improvement at keeping the ball in the park, as he gave just one homer over those 35 frames at Double-A this year after allowing 27 homers over 137 2/3 innings in 2021-22.
It makes for some interesting potential, and it isn’t surprising that the rebuilding Athletics would want to take a look at a young and controllable arm. Oakland has optioned Sweet to Triple-A for now, but might very well call him up for some more Major League action before the season is over.
Mariners Designate Devin Sweet For Assignment
The Mariners announced that they have claimed righty Dominic Leone off waivers, a move that was reported on earlier today. They also announced that righty Devin Sweet has been designated for assignment to open a spot for Leone on their 40-man roster.
Sweet, 26, was just selected to the roster about six weeks ago. He made two appearances for the big league club, allowing two earned runs in two innings, before getting optioned to Triple-A Tacoma. He made seven appearances for that club with a 2.57 earned run average but has now lost his 40-man roster spot to make room for the veteran Leone.
An undrafted free agent who signed with the M’s in 2018, he climbed his way up to Double-A by the end of last year. Prior to his call-up to the majors, he tossed 35 Double-A innings this year with a 1.54 ERA, 34.6% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate.
The M’s will now have to put Sweet on waivers in the coming days, since the trade deadline has passed. He is using the first of his three option years here in 2023 but will still have two remaining for the future. He also has just a handful of service days, giving him at least six seasons of future control. Those factors and his strong Double-A work earlier this year should give him some appeal to other clubs around the league, especially with several spots opening up with expanded September rosters and various waiver claims being made this week. But if he were to go unclaimed, he would stick with the Mariners as non-roster depth, not having the right to elect free agency.
Mariners Claim Dominic Leone From Angels
The Mariners have claimed right-hander Dominic Leone off waivers from the Angels, reports Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times. The reliever was one of a handful of players waived by Los Angeles in a salary dump.
It’s the fourth organization of the season for Leone, who originally broke into the majors with Seattle nine years ago. He began on a minor league deal with Texas but didn’t crack the Rangers’ MLB roster. Leone moved to the Mets via free agency and turned in 30 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball. He struggled with homers in Queens but posted better than average strikeout and walk marks.
The Halos acquired Leone just before the August 1 trade deadline. As was the case for the bulk of the roster over the last few weeks, he struggled in Orange County. Leone was tagged for eight runs in 13 frames as an Angel. He walked nine while striking out 11. For the season, the 31-year-old now carries a 4.74 ERA across 43 2/3 frames. He’s striking hitters out at a league average 23.4% clip but has now walked just under 11% of batters faced.
It’s not the most dominant performance, but Leone has shown an intriguing arsenal on a pitch-for-pitch basis. He’s averaging just under 96 MPH on his heater and has gotten swinging strikes on a massive 15.7% of his offerings between the two clubs. He’ll add a power arm to the middle innings, furthering deepening a very good Seattle relief corps.
The combination of power stuff but inconsistent results explains both why the M’s rolled the dice on Leone and why so many other teams did not. Seattle had the #26 waiver priority, meaning everyone aside from the Rays, Orioles, Dodgers and Braves certainly passed.
Seattle will need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster once they officially announce the claim. Leone can take the extra spot on the active roster during tomorrow’s expansion. It’s a low-cost roll of the dice, as Seattle will take on roughly $258K in remaining salary on Leone’s $1.5MM contract. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end.
Mariners Sign Luis Torrens To Minor League Deal
The Mariners have signed catcher Luis Torrens to a minor league deal and assigned him to Triple-A Tacoma, per Rainiers broadcaster Mike Curto. By joining the organization prior to September 1, Torrens will be eligible to play for the Mariners in the postseason.
Torrens, 27, returns to the Mariners organization, which was his club from 2020 to 2022. But he was non-tendered at the end of last year and has been fairly nomadic since. He signed a minor league deal with the Cubs in the offseason and cracked the Opening Day roster but was designated for assignment and flipped to the Orioles a month later. He was designated for assignment again about a week after that, this time clearing waivers and electing free agency. He landed with the Nats on a minor league deal but opted out on the first of July and has been unattached until now.
Amid all of those stops on his journey, he hit .250/.318/.300 in 13 major league games for the Cubs and .258/.311/.470 in 19 games for Triple-A Rochester. He’s generally considered a bat-first catcher and showed that potential with the M’s, hitting .245/.303/.421 over 2020 and 2021. That production translates to a league average wRC+ of 100, though catchers generally hit roughly 10 points lower as a group. But his line dropped to .225/.283/.298 last year, 71 wRC+, leading to his non-tender and wayward 2023 campaign.
The Mariners have Cal Raleigh as their primary catcher but placed backup Tom Murphy on the injured list a couple of weeks ago, bumping Brian O’Keefe up from Triple-A to the majors. They have Cooper Hummel on the 40-man but he’s spent more time in the outfield than behind the plate in Triple-A this year. Pedro Severino is in the organization as experienced non-roster depth and Torrens can now join him on the depth chart. The M’s have been one of the hottest clubs in the league of late and seem to be surging towards the playoffs. If any of their catchers suffers an injury now or through the postseason, Torrens can be an option to replace them.
AL West Notes: Oakland, Ohtani, Mariners
The Athletics are all but certain to move out of Oakland in favor of Las Vegas upon their lease’s expiration at the end of the 2024 campaign. That being said, the club’s new stadium in Las Vegas isn’t expected to be ready until 2028 at the earliest, creating questions regarding where the A’s will play in the interim. Some possible solutions that have been discussed would see the A’s look to split time in Oracle Park with the Giants or Las Vegas Ballpark with the Aviators, the organization’s Triple-A affiliate.
Perhaps the most frequently discussed option at the club’s disposal would be simply remaining in the Coliseum on an extended lease while the club’s new ballpark in Las Vegas is built, but Scott Ostler of the San Francisco Chronicle indicates that Oakland’s mayor, Sheng Thao, would not extend the club’s lease in Oakland easily. Ostler relays that Thao’s chief of staff Leigh Hanson indicated the city’s demands could include the A’s leaving the “Athletics” name in Oakland when they depart for Vegas or a guarantee of a new team when MLB eventually expands beyond 30 teams.
It seems unlikely that the A’s would be willing to give up the “Athletics” name nor that MLB would offer Oakland an expansion team in exchange for three additional years on the club’s lease in Oakland. Given those hefty demands, it seems that the A’s will have to look elsewhere as they search for an interim home while their future ballpark in Las Vegas is built. The A’s have officially filed with MLB for relocation, with their interim home ballpark remaining as perhaps the single biggest question mark regarding the relocation plan. Any interim home ballpark would have to receive the approval of not only the league, but also the MLBPA.
More from around the AL West…
- Angels GM Perry Minasian indicated today to reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that the club suggested two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani undergo imaging on his throwing arm earlier this month when he left a start on August 3 thanks to cramping in his finger. Ohtani and his team declined to proceed with the MRI, instead opting to make his scheduled start on August 9. Of course, Ohtani wound up being diagnosed with a UCL tear earlier this week, an injury that has ended his season as a pitcher. Ohtani has continued to his since the injury was revealed, and has done so at his usual MVP-caliber level: in four games since, Ohtani has recorded three doubles, a triple, and a home run on five hits and six walks in sixteen trips to the plate while stealing two bases. Minasian declined to provide an update on Ohtani’s injury, indicating that Ohtani and his team would determine his course of action and timeline as they gathered additional opinions on his injury.
- The Mariners have been one of the hottest teams in baseball this month, with an 18-5 since the start of August that’s pushed them to the top of the AL West standings. They’ve done all that without outfield Jarred Kelenic, who has been on the injured list with a fractured foot since kicking a water cooler last month. The 23-year-old youngster is recovering well from the incident with GM Justin Hollander indicating that Kelenic will begin a rehab assignment next week, as noted by Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. While Hollander indicated that Kelenic’s rehab could be a lengthy one, he expressed confidence that the young outfielder will return at full strength before the end of the season. That’s great news for Seattle, which has primarily relied on Dominic Canzone (94 wRC+) in the weeks since Kelenic’s injury.
- Sticking with the Mariners, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times notes that catcher Tom Murphy is expected to be cleared for an increase in baseball activities and intensity this week. Murphy has been on the injured list with a thumb sprain for the past two weeks. Prior to his injury, Murphy was the club’s primary backup to Cal Raleigh behind the plate and was having a superlative season in that role, slashing .290/.335/.538 with a wRC+ of 140 in 159 trips to the plate. With Murphy on the shelf, Seattle has relied on Brian O’Keefe as Raleigh’s backup.
Adam Jones To Officially Retire
The Orioles announced that Adam Jones will retire as an Oriole on September 15. Presumably, he will sign a one-day contract and there will be some pre-game festivities, though those details have not yet been announced. Jones last played in the majors in 2019, heading to Japan for two years after that but didn’t sign anywhere last year. Now he will officially hang up his spikes with the organization where he spent the bulk of his career.
Jones, now 38, was selected by the Mariners with the 37th overall pick in the 2003 draft. He was initially used as a shortstop but moved to the outfield as a minor leaguer. He became a top 100 prospect and was able to get some brief major league time with the Mariners in 2006 and 2007, getting into 73 games over those two seasons. He didn’t quite establish himself at the big league level immediately, hitting .230/.267/.353 in that time.
Prior to the 2008 season, Jones was one of five players that the Mariners sent to the Orioles in the Erik Bedard trade, a move that would prove to be career-defining for Jones. The O’s were in a rough period at that time and were able to give Jones some regular playing time. He got into 132 games in 2008, hitting .270/.311/.400. That translated to a subpar wRC+ of 84, but he stole 10 bases and provided above-average center field defense, leading to a tally of 1.5 wins above replacement from FanGraphs.
2009 would be a breakout year for Jones, as he hit 19 home runs, more than doubling the nine he hit in the prior season. He hit .277/.335/.457 for a wRC+ of 103, getting selected to the All-Star team and winning a Gold Glove award in the process. Despite being limited to 119 games by an ankle sprain, he still matched his 1.5 fWAR tally from the year before.
He would become a staple of the outfield in Baltimore for years to come, continuing to produce in that all-around fashion with above-average offense, defense and speed. In May of 2012, he and the club agreed to a six-year, $85.5MM extension that ran through 2018, the largest contract in franchise history at that time.
That led to Jones playing 11 seasons with the Orioles from 2008 to 2018. He was remarkably consistent and reliable in that time, never playing less than 137 games in a season after the aforementioned 119 games in 2009. He played 1,613 games overall as an Oriole, hitting 263 home runs and stealing 90 bases. His .279/.319/.459 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 108 and he was worth 29.3 fWAR over those seasons.
With Jones in the outfield, the Orioles were able to emerge from a long period of mediocrity and become a perennial contender. After losing seasons in each campaign from 1998 to 2011, they went on to finish .500 or better five years in a row from 2012 to 2016. They made the playoffs three of those years, won the AL East division title in 2014 and made it to the ALCS that year.
But by the time his contract expired at the end of 2018, the O’s were back in a rebuilding period, one that they have just recently emerged from. Jones signed a one-year, $3MM deal with the Diamondbacks for 2019 but his offense and defense declined to subpar levels. He then signed a two-year, $8MM deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He hit .250/.334/.390 in 159 games over those two years.
Although Jones didn’t begin his career with the Orioles, the largest and best part of his career was spent in Baltimore. He didn’t finish his playing time with the Orioles either but will now ceremonially conclude his career with the O’s in a few weeks, officially closing the books on his time as a player. Overall, he got into 1,823 major league games and tallied 1,939 hits, including 336 doubles, 29 triples and 282 home runs. He scored 963 runs, drove in 945 and stole 97 bases, made five All-Star teams and won four Gold Gloves. He also represented Team USA internationally, playing in the 2013 and 2017 World Baseball Classic tournaments. The latter of those two saw him make arguably the most famous catch in WBC history, robbing his Oriole teammate Manny Machado, who was representing the Dominican Republic.
We at MLB Trade Rumors salute Jones on a fine career and wish him the best in all his post-playing endeavors.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
MLBTR Poll: AL West Winner
Heading into play Tuesday, there’s only one division where the lead is two games or fewer. That’s the AL West, which has a pair of teams within two games of the frontrunner. Whoever wins the division is very likely to get a first-round bye — all three teams are at least five games clear of the AL Central-leading Twins — adding extra incentive for the clubs to secure more than a Wild Card spot.
With the Angels now 11 games out and the A’s on their way to 110+ losses, we’ll take a look at the three remaining teams with a plausible path to contention:
Texas Rangers, 72-53 (lead division by 1.5 games)
The Rangers have had a share of the division lead for all but one day of the season. They’ve been in sole possession of first place going back to May 6, stretching their margin out to 6.5 games in the final week of June. Texas has allowed the gap to close in recent weeks, playing slightly below .500 ball between June and July. They rebounded to win 10 of 11 to start August but have dropped six of eight since then (including five in a row).
Texas has been far and away the best offensive team in the division. They trail only Atlanta overall in runs and all three slash stats. They’ve cooled off a bit following a scorching start, ranking eighth in scoring since the All-Star Break. Even after losing Jacob deGrom, the rotation has held up remarkably well — and deadline acquisitions Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery couldn’t have performed much better through their respective first four starts in a Ranger uniform.
The biggest question mark, as has been the case the entire season, is the bullpen. Texas relievers rank 25th in ERA overall; they’re 24th with a 4.96 figure since the start of the second half. The front office added to the relief corps this summer, bringing in Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton. They’ve each been effective (although Chapman blew a save in last night’s extra-inning loss in Arizona) but the group has been shaky enough overall to contribute to a handful of frustrating defeats.
Texas is 9-17 in one-run contests and 2-5 in games that go to extra innings. There’s probably some amount of poor fortune baked into that mark, but it’s hard to attribute those struggles all to luck (particularly after the Rangers were a staggering 15-35 in one-run games a season ago).
Among all major league teams, only the Braves have a superior run differential to the Rangers’ +184 mark. Few teams are capable of bludgeoning an opponent the way Texas can. Can they lock down enough tight games to hold off their two top competitors?
Houston Astros, 71-55 (1.5 games back of Texas, 0.5 ahead of Seattle)
The defending World Series winners entered the season as the favorites to capture another AL West crown. Yet this year’s Houston club, while very good, hasn’t played at the same level as last year’s 106-win squad.
That’s primarily a reflection of a step back on the pitching front. Last year’s club finished the regular season eighth in run scoring; they’re sixth in that regard this season. Their run prevention has regressed a bit, as they’ve dropped from second to fifth in ERA. After finishing second in the majors with a 26% strikeout rate a season ago, they’re down to ninth (at 24%) this year.
It’s certainly not a bad pitching staff — Houston is still in the upper third of the league in most categories — but injuries slowed them early in the year. Luis Garcia won’t return from Tommy John surgery. They got nothing from Lance McCullers Jr. because of persistent forearm issues. Allowing Justin Verlander to depart in free agency subtracted the defending Cy Young winner for the season’s first few months. He’s back in the fold but hasn’t been as dominant in 2023 as he was a year ago. José Urquidy missed a couple months with shoulder issues, while Cristian Javier has been inconsistent after an excellent start to the year.
Strong rookie showings from Hunter Brown and J.P. France were instrumental in keeping the club afloat while Garcia, McCullers and Urquidy were on the injured list. With Urquidy now healthy and Verlander back, Houston’s rotation again runs six deep. The lineup is nearing full strength with Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez healthy and Michael Brantley on a rehab stint. First baseman José Abreu is in an uncertain spot because of a back injury, though he hasn’t produced even when healthy.
The Astros have never really had a chance to fire on all cylinders. They haven’t spent a single day with even a share of first place since losing on Opening Day. They’ve hung around, though, and they’re getting closer to trotting out the roster they’ve more or less envisioned.
Seattle Mariners, 70-55 (2 games back of Texas, 0.5 back of Houston)
The Mariners have been the hottest team in the American League over the past two months. Seattle had been remarkably average for the first few months, never winning nor losing more than four consecutive games through the end of July. Even after going 17-9 in July, the M’s trod an uncertain course at the deadline. They dealt away closer Paul Sewald to add MLB-ready but more controllable offensive help in the form of Dominic Canzone and Josh Rojas. Unlike their division rivals in Arlington, Houston and even Anaheim, the Mariners didn’t make any headline-grabbing deadline acquisitions.
No matter, Seattle is an AL-best 15-4 since the calendar flipped to August. They’ve rattled off separate win streaks of seven-plus games (the latter of which is ongoing) this month. Part of the front office’s logic in trading Sewald was their confidence the bullpen was deep enough to remain excellent; the relief corps is indeed fourth in ERA and fifth in strikeout rate since the deadline.
Seattle’s rotation has been among the league’s best all year. They lead the majors in innings and rank sixth in ERA. Rookies Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo have stepped in well behind the star trio of George Kirby, Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert. The biggest recent turnaround has been the offense. A lineup which president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto frankly conceded four weeks ago was “an average major league offense” trails only Atlanta and Philadelphia in scoring this month.
After accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, they lead the league in wRC+ in August. They’ve gotten contributions throughout the batting order. Of the 11 Seattle hitters with 40+ plate appearances, only Rojas has posted below-average numbers. Julio Rodríguez has arguably been the best player on the planet over the past three weeks, while Ty France and Teoscar Hernández have caught fire after previously underwhelming seasons by their standards.
All of a sudden, the Mariners are firmly within striking distance of what could be their first division title since 2001. They’ll control their own destiny into the season’s final week and a half. As Mike Petriello of MLB.com observed (on Twitter), Seattle’s final three series are against the clubs they’re trying to track down. They’ll finish the regular season with a three-game set in Arlington, three at home against Houston, and then four more against the Rangers at T-Mobile Park.
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How does the MLBTR readership envision things playing out? Which team will take home the division crown, and for good measure, how many teams from the AL West will snag a Wild Card berth?
(poll links for app users)
Which Team Will Win The AL West?
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Mariners 40% (2,168)
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Rangers 30% (1,632)
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Astros 29% (1,559)
Total votes: 5,359
How Many AL Wild Card Teams Will Come From The West?
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2 71% (2,643)
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1 29% (1,069)
Total votes: 3,712
Mariners Sign Luke Weaver To Major League Deal, Transfer Emerson Hancock To 60-Day IL
The Mariners announced a series of roster moves today, reinstating right-hander Bryan Woo from the injured list and signing righty Luke Weaver to a major league deal. To open two active roster spots, they optioned righties Eduard Bazardo and Darren McCaughan. To open a 40-man spot for Weaver, righty Emerson Hancock has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.
It’s a belated birthday present for Weaver, who just turned 30 years old yesterday. He was recently released by the Reds, who had signed him to a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason. Unfortunately, his 21 starts for Cincinnati resulted in him allowing 6.87 earned runs per nine innings. His 7.6% walk rate was solid but he only struck out 19% of batters faced. Home runs were a particular problem as he allowed 24 balls to sail over the fence in that time, easily a career high for him.
The Mariners were planning to utilize a six-man rotation when Woo returned from the injured list, joining Hancock, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller, but Hancock’s injury threw a wrench in those plans. He landed on the injured list yesterday due to a shoulder strain and it seems the club isn’t expecting him back soon. Today’s transfer makes him officially ineligible to return until the middle of October. His season is now effectively over unless the club goes on a World Series run and he gets healthy enough in the next two months to put himself in position to rejoin the roster. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports that his recovery will take at least four to six weeks.
The club could simply go with a five-man rotation, though there are reasons why they might still prefer six. Both Miller and Woo are rookies who are pushing towards uncharted territory in terms of innings pitched in a season. Last year was Miller’s first full professional season and he was able to toss 133 2/3 frames. This year, between the majors and minors, he’s up to 117 1/3 already. Woo, meanwhile, tossed 67 2/3 last year and is already up to 99 innings this year between Double-A and the majors. Kirby was a rookie last year and logged 130 major league innings plus another 26 2/3 in the minors, and is at 150 2/3 this year.
Going with a six-man rotation would soften some of the workload concerns and the potential for fatigue down the stretch. Perhaps that is why they have brought Weaver aboard. Though his results haven’t been good this year, a change of venue would likely help him to some degree. Looking at Statcast’s park factors, the Mariners have one of the more pitching-friendly home parks while the Reds are on the other end of the spectrum, especially when it comes to home runs.
It’s also possible that the Mariners are planning to implement Weaver out of the bullpen, a role in which he’s showed some encouraging signs in the past. With the Diamondbacks and Royals last year, he had an ERA of 6.56 overall, but that included one start in which he allowed nine earned runs. As a reliever, he had a 4.78 ERA and may have deserved even better. He had a 21.7% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, 40.4% ground ball rate and didn’t surrender a home run at all. But a .404 batting average on balls in play and 64.9% strand rate pushed some extra runs across the plate, with his 2.46 FIP suggesting he was perhaps better than his ERA would indicate.
Regardless of his role, it’s a low-risk move for the M’s financially. Since the Reds released Weaver, they remain on the hook for what’s left of his $2MM salary, while the Mariners will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster. That amount will be subtracted from what the Reds pay.
Mariners Place Emerson Hancock On Injured List
2:17pm: The Mariners announced that Hancock has been placed on the 15-day IL due to a shoulder strain. A timeline hasn’t yet been provided. Seattle has also reinstated shortstop J.P. Crawford from the injured list, recalled righty Darren McCaughan from Triple-A Tacoma and optioned infielder/outfielder Sam Haggerty to Tacoma.
12:20pm: Mariners righty Emerson Hancock left yesterday’s game — just the third start of his big league career — after two shutout innings due to what the team announced as a right shoulder strain. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that Hancock is likely headed to the injured list with a lat injury of some degree. The team hasn’t yet formally announced that move.
Hancock, 24, looked like he was breezing through his first two innings, holding the Astros scoreless and yielding just two hits with two strikeouts on 31 pitches. Manager Scott Servais told Divish and others after the game that Hancock felt something “grab” in his shoulder/lat during that second frame, however.
An injury to Hancock all but derails the Mariners’ plans to move to a six-man rotation before the arrangement ever got underway. Right-hander Bryan Woo is expected to return from the injured list this week, but his activation will now simply push Seattle back to five starters. He’ll join Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller in Servais’ starting five.
The advent of a six-man rotation might have allowed the Mariners to more organically manage the workloads of young starters like Hancock, Kirby, Miller and Woo. The Mariners could still go the six-man route if they’re comfortable giving regular starts to righty Adam Oller or journeyman left-hander Tommy Milone down the stretch, but it’s not clear whether either of those scenarios is under consideration.
An injury to Hancock at this stage of the season is rather ill-timed. The former No. 6 overall draft pick (2020) was just getting his feet wet in the Majors, and he’d also only recently surpassed his total workload from the 2022 season. Hancock has thrown a career-high 110 innings this year, and the Mariners surely hoped to push that number a bit further in hopes of building him up for a larger workload in subsequent seasons. They may still get that chance, depending on the severity of the injury in question, but even a minimal stay on the injured list would sideline Hancock into early September and cost him a couple of starts.
The Mariners’ success in 2023 is largely attributable to both the quality and depth of their starting pitching staff. Seattle starters rank sixth in the Majors with a 3.86 ERA and are one of just three teams with 700-plus innings from their rotation at present, trailing only the Twins and Astros in that regard — and each by a margin of two or fewer innings. Had Hancock not incurred this injury, Mariners starters may well lead the big leagues in innings pitched.
Assuming the IL stint indeed goes through, Hancock will join southpaws Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales on the shelf. Woo is also on the IL at the moment, though the expectation has been that he’ll return this week.
The Mariners have been baseball’s hottest team this month, churning out 14 wins against four losses. That follows up a similarly hot July, where their 17 wins were tied for the most in baseball. Dating back to July 1, the Mariners have played at an outstanding 31-13 clip. They’re now in possession of the third and final AL Wild Card spot and sit just three games back of the division lead in an increasingly tight AL West race.