- While most players seemingly can’t wait to get out of Miami these days, newly acquired Lewis Brinson couldn’t be more excited to be a member of the Marlins, writes Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. A Coral Springs, Fla. native, the 23-year-old Brinson grew up as a Marlins fan and has hopes of wearing No. 9 in Miami as an homage to his childhood favorite, Juan Pierre. President of baseball operations Michael Hill tells Healey that Brinson will have the opportunity to earn a spot in the Major League outfield right away in Spring Training. He figures to be joined in that regard by fellow newcomer Magneuris Sierra (acquired in the Marcell Ozuna trade) and 24-year-old Braxton Lee, who had a strong 2017 season Double-A and came to the Marlins in last summer’s Adeiny Hechavarria trade. Derek Dietrich could also be in the mix for some corner outfield at-bats, I’d imagine, though he could see time in the infield as well, depending on what other moves the Fish make between now and Opening Day.
Marlins Rumors
Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Domingo, Nationals, Kipnis
Here are some of the latest hot stove whisperings overheard by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, detailed in his latest column (insider subscription required and highly recommended)…
- The Mets are “weighing” four players as potential solutions to their need at second and/or third base. They’re interested in free agents Eduardo Nunez, Todd Frazier and former Met Neil Walker, while also exploring the possibility of adding Josh Harrison via trade. The latter would require the Amazins to fork over young outfielder Brandon Nimmo, according to Rosenthal’s sources. Of course, the team has all of Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto under control for at least the next three seasons, and Rosenthal posits that they shouldn’t cling too tightly to a fourth outfielder if trading him could help improve their chances in 2018. Furthermore, pivoting to Walker could “spark justifiable criticism” that the Mets are reassembling a losing team; they’ve already re-signed Jose Reyes and Bruce.
- Trade speculation surrounding Brewers outfielder Domingo Santana has spiked ever since the team acquired Christian Yelich and signed Lorenzo Cain just minutes later. But although he slugged 30 homers last season and is just 25 years of age, his trade value may not be as high as one might think. Rosenthal quotes rival executives saying that Santana is “a bad defender” and “not a winning player.” Those comments come off a bit extreme, but it’s worth noting that he struck out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances last season while being worth -5 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield.
- While it’s been oft-reported that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo isn’t willing to part with top prospect Victor Robles in a trade, Rosenthal suggests that the club could be willing to give up Michael Taylor if his involvement in a deal would help the club net Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto. On the other hand, some officials in the organization aren’t keen on giving up a player who’s a fairly safe option in the outfield while Adam Eaton is coming off a significant surgery and Bryce Harper is set to become a free agent next winter.
- The Yankees reportedly showed some interest in Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis at some point this offseason. However, that interest has apparently cooled of late. While his contribution towards the luxury tax threshold isn’t significant ($8.75MM per season), his actual remaining salary ($30.5MM guaranteed over two years) might be considered somewhat of a risk for a bounce-back candidate; one rival executive says he’s worth a shot, but not at that price. The 30-year-old Kipnis spent significant time on the DL last season with shoulder and hamstring injuries, and hit just .232/.291/.414 last season when healthy.
Tom Glavine's Ownership Group Would Have Operated Similarly To Derek Jeter's
- New Marlins owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter have drawn plenty of criticism for their payroll-slashing methods in their first offseason atop the franchise. Before securing the Marlins last year, Sherman and Jeter had to outbid a potential ownership group including Hall of Fame hurler Tom Glavine. As it turns out, had Glavine & Co. purchased the team, they would have operated similarly to how Sherman and Jeter have. Glavine told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that his faction was “of the same mind-set as to the moves that had to be made to get payroll under control.” They’d have attempted to do things differently in terms of public relations, though, with Glavine acknowledging that Sherman and Jeter haven’t “done themselves any favors from a PR standpoint.”
Why The Marlins Should Pursue Veterans
- As you might expect, rival teams have been coveting Braves outfield prospect Ronald Acuna, with the Marlins most recently asking for Acuna in as part of a Christian Yelich trade package. Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos told reporters (including Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that the team might still consider an outfield move “but [one] that’s not as big because we don’t want to block Acuna” in 2018. Arguably the top prospect all of baseball, Acuna is expected to debut in Atlanta’s outfield as early as Opening Day.
- The Marlins could be an attractive destination for lower-tier free agents who are still trying to find a new team, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman writes, given their lack of big league-ready talent. Signing a couple of notable veterans to reasonable contracts would help the Marlins on several fronts, Sherman argues — the team could gain some trade deadline chips, add veteran leadership to a young roster, and alleviate criticism from the players’ union about a lack of spending.
Details On Yelich Trade Talks Between Marlins, Blue Jays
The Blue Jays were “the only other team that came close” to acquiring Christian Yelich from the Marlins before the outfielder was dealt to the Brewers, SiriusXM’s Craig Mish reports (Twitter links). “Several variations” of trade packages were discussed between the Jays and Marlins, including some deals that would’ve seen Toronto take some extra money off Miami’s payroll. What ended talks between the two sides was the Jays’ refusal to deal Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It was no secret that the Marlins were demanding a big return for Yelich, and it also isn’t surprising that the Jays balked at moving Guerrero, one of baseball’s very best prospects.
MLBPA Raises Revenue Sharing Concerns Regarding Marlins, Pirates
7:23pm: MLB has seemingly thrown some cold water on the situation in issuing the following statement (hat tip to Adam Berry of MLB.com):
“We do not have concerns about the Pirates’ and Marlins’ compliance with the basic agreement provisions regarding the use of revenue sharing proceeds. The Pirates have steadily increased their payroll over the years while at the same time decreasing their revenue sharing. The Marlins’ ownership purchased a team that incurred substantial financial losses the prior two seasons, and even with revenue sharing and significant expense reduction, the team is projected to lose money in 2018. The union has not informed us that it intends to file a grievance against either team.”
5:32pm: Pirates president Frank Coonnelly issued a lengthy statement on the matter, stating that the Pirates are not under investigation (Twitter link via Adam Berry of MLB.com):
“The Pirates are not being investigated by MLB and the Commissioner has no concerns whatsoever with the manner in which the Pirates are investing its revenue sharing receipts into building a winner. The Pirates have and will continue to invest its revenue sharing receipts in an effort to put a winning team on the field As required by the Basic Agreement, we share with MLB and the Union each year the detail as to how our revenue sharing receipts are used to put a winning team on the field. What the detail shows is that while our revenue sharing receipts have decreased for seven consecutive seasons, our Major league payroll has more than doubled over that same period. Indeed, our revenue sharing receipts are now just a fraction of what we spend on Major League payroll, let alone all of the other dollars that we spend on scouting, player development and other baseball investments, several areas in which we are among the League leaders in spending. Thus, the Commissioner is well-equipped to address whatever ’concerns’ the Union now has over the Pirates’ effort to win.”
1:33pm: The Major League Baseball Player’s Association has raised concern with the commissioner’s office regarding the Marlins and Pirates, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan had recently reported that the union was considering the idea of going to commissioner Rob Manfred with their concerns.
The root of the union’s concern is whether the two teams are appropriately reinvesting the money that they receive under the league’s revenue-sharing program, both Jackson and Passan noted in their reports. The MLBPA issued the following statement to Jackson:
“We have raised our concerns regarding both Miami and Pittsburgh with the Commissioner, as is the protocol under the collective bargaining agreement and its revenue sharing provisions. We are waiting to have further dialogue and that will dictate our next steps.”
As Jackson notes, it wouldn’t be the first time that revenue-sharing concerns regarding the Marlins were raised. A similar scenario occurred back in 2010, at which point Miami did (briefly) increase its spending; the Marlins rolled out their first $100MM+ payroll in 2012, the debut season of a taxpayer-funded stadium in Miami, only to conduct a massive firesale the following offseason.
Jackson reports that the Marlins are set to receive roughly $60MM in revenue sharing profits this season and could take home as much as $160MM from the league between that sum, the $50MM BAMTech payout that all 30 clubs are receiving and the national television contract. At present, we have the Marlins projected for a $97MM payroll in 2018, though there are likely still moves on the horizon that would impact that bottom line. The Marlins could very well find an offer to their liking for star catcher J.T. Realmuto, and Jackson also reports that Starlin Castro has asked the team to be traded. (It’d already been reported that he was “hoping” for a trade out of Miami, though this is a more formal declaration of his preference.)
Neither the Marlins or Pirates have signed a free agent to a Major League deal this offseason; instead, the teams have been largely focused on trading away big league assets. Miami has shipped out Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon and Yelich, shedding more than $40MM of payroll in the process. Even with all of those dealings, the Marlins still haven’t reached their target of a $90MM payroll, though moving Castro (and possibly Realmuto) would get them to said point.
The Pirates, meanwhile, have traded Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen, though their focus on acquiring MLB-level assets and the remaining presence of players like Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco seemingly indicates that they’re not embarking on an aggressive tanking endeavor in the same manner as the Marlins.
Pittsburgh seems like a better candidate to step out into the open market and add a mid-range player or two. Beyond the aforementioned focus on MLB-ready assets is the fact that the Pirates have recently opened the season with payrolls in the $95-100MM range but currently projects to just a bit over $85MM in 2018. Obviously, no one would expect Pittsburgh to be a player for a top-tier free agent, but a modestly priced upgrade for the back of the rotation, the outfield or the bullpen nonetheless seems plausible.
The Commissioner’s Office has not yet released any kind of statement on the matter, though the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that Manfred can impose penalties onto clubs that do not appropriately reallocate their revenue sharing profits. Per the CBA, the commissioner’s office can also:
“…require a Club to submit a plan for its financial performance and competitive effort for the next two years. Such a plan must include a pro forma financial presentation that specifies its attendance, revenues, payroll, player development expenditures, non-player costs, and capital spending. The Commissioner, after consultation with the Players Association, may direct the Club to change aspects of its plan, including the level of competitive effort reflected in the plan, or take other actions as he considers appropriate (including escrow of a portion of a Club’s revenue sharing payments).”
NL East Notes: Degrom, Lagares, Marlins
The Mets attempted to work out a long-term contract extension with talented right-hander Jacob deGrom this offseason, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. However, those talks apparently never gained much traction. At this point, it appears as though deGrom expects to test the open market after his remaining three arbitration years are up. “As of right now, it looks like it’s going to be a year-to-year thing,” deGrom told reporters on Thursday. “I have got this year and two more, so I am still going to be here a while. If they want to extend past that, I guess we’ll see where it goes.” While those comments still imply that deGrom is keeping an open mind, the nature of his words seem to cast doubt on any chance of him giving the Mets some of his free agent years in advance the 2020-2021 offseason. He avoided arbitration this offseason by agreeing to a one-year, $7.4MM deal for 2018. The 29-year-old righty reached the 200-inning threshold for the first time in 2017 while pitching to a 3.53 ERA and 3.23 xFIP. During his four major league seasons, deGrom has been worth an average of over 4 fWAR. Since reaching the majors in 2013 (and ultimately winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award), he’s posted a sparkling 2.98 ERA, having struck out 9.67 batters per nine innings while walking just 2.33.
Other notable items from around the NL East…
- Elsewhere in the Big Apple, Mets center fielder Juan Lagares has faith in his newly-overhauled swing, Puma writes in a separate piece. Lagares reportedly spent ten days in California with Craig Wallenbrock, a well-known hitting coach. His new approach (in line with a recent trend around the league) involves an objective to hit the ball in the air more often. “The last couple of years I have hit the ball super hard, but on the ground, so I am just trying to get it a little more in the air,” he says. While it’s certainly true that Lagares’ past approach has elicited a far greater percentage of ground balls (50.8) than fly balls (28.8), his claim that he’s hit the ball “super hard” seems a bit far-fetched. Via Fangraphs, the soon-to-be 29-year-old owns a hard contact rate of just 27.5% for his career, and his figure from last season (29.6%) was just north of that.
- A small handful of current and former Marlins front office executives are set to run marathons in seven consecutive days on seven different continents, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports. The “183.4-mile racing odyssey,” as Jackson calls it, will be led by Jeff Conine; he’ll be joined by ex-Marlins-president David Samson and ex-broadcasting-executive P.J. Loyello, along with two current Miami officials and 11 other people in a fascinating enterprise that will benefit 11 charities at the expense of an immense physical toll on their bodies. “You can’t pass up a life experience like this. I’ll never have the opportunity to do something like this ever again,” Conine offered on the subject. “Why not?”
Nationals Pursuing J.T. Realmuto
Jan. 26: Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com tweets that the while the Nats aren’t willing to include Robles or Soto, he’s gotten the sense that the Marlins may be willing to accept a package of prospects that doesn’t include either young outfielder as the headliner.
Jan. 25: As the Marlins’ offseason fire sale continues with the trade of Christian Yelich, it seems attention will now turn to catcher J.T. Realmuto. With three years of control remaining, he’s even closer to free agency than was Yelich, so perhaps only a sufficient offer stands in the way of a deal.
At this point, the Nationals are the organization that is “most heavily engaged” in pursuit of Realmuto, according to Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio (via Twitter). But the Fish are maintaining a high asking price, with Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweeting that they are trying to pry top Nationals prospect Victor Robles loose.
Interest in Realmuto has been brisk ever since he reportedly requested a trade earlier in the winter. MLBTR took a look at Realmuto’s possible trade market recently, noting that the Nationals appear to be a strong match. As I explained in breaking down the Nats’ offseason outlook, the organization could be an ideal fit for Realmuto as they look into possible upgrades over veteran Matt Wieters and youngster Pedro Severino behind the dish.
Realmuto, who’ll turn 27 in March, is entering his first of three arbitration seasons after two-straight quality offensive campaigns. His arb case remains unresolved, but he’ll be cheap regardless. Realmuto, who is perhaps the only established young catcher who’s really available by trade at all, popped 17 home runs and slashed a solid .278/.332/.451 over 579 plate appearances in 2017. He’s an athletic backstop who grades well in throwing and blocking. Though his framing numbers have lagged considerably by measure of StatCorner, the Baseball Prospectus grading system felt he turned a corner and added value with his receiving effort in 2017.
So, can the sides hammer out an agreement? It seems something will have to give first. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post writes that the club isn’t willing to consider top prospects Robles and Juan Soto — each of whom ranks among the fifty or so best pre-MLB assets in baseball.
The Nats are obviously weighing some other considerations in their pursuit of Realmuto. With Bryce Harper entering a contract year, the elite outfield prospects are of added importance. Washington is also interested in free agent Alex Avila, Castillo notes, keeping a free-agent option available as well.
Plus, there are competing priorities. As Castillo explains, there’s also the possibility of adding a reliever, with the competitive balance tax operating as a limiting factor. The report suggests the Nationals are “not very high” on closer Greg Holland, who’s the best remaining relief pitcher MLBTR’s ranking of the top 50 free agents.
For Miami, it stands to reason that there’s a minimum price tag beyond which the team just won’t be willing to deal Realmuto. Even if he’s disappointed with staying on board, he’d surely be seen as a valuable asset to help along a young roster and could still be dealt at the trade deadline or next winter.
Then again, the Marlins could take a closer look at the Nationals’ possible trade chips. Righty Erick Fedde and lefty Seth Romero could each represent near-to-the-majors rotation pieces in Miami. And shortstop Carter Kieboom could profile as a future regular at the position for the rebuilding Marlins. Plus, Severino or Raudy Read could turn into young replacement assets behind the dish. Of course, whether and in what combination those players might be available isn’t known.
At the end of the day, one of the two organizations will need to blink, or both will need to find a creative way to compromise, in order to get something done. But it’s not just a staring contest. Other teams, too, are surely still looking into Realmuto and could attempt to slide in with better offers if the Nats continue to be protective of their best young assets.
Brewers Acquire Christian Yelich
The Brewers have announced a blockbuster deal to acquire outfielder Christian Yelich from the Marlins. Outfielders Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, infielder Isan Diaz, and righty Jordan Yamamoto make up the return for Miami.
Milwaukee entered the winter with numerous quality young outfield options. Indeed, speculation has centered on the possibility that the organization would deal from its surplus, making this move all the more surprising. On the other hand, the Brewers were relatively unsettled in center field — where Yelich would presumably line up as things stand at present — and were reported recently to have made an offer for the quality young outfielder. The Brew Crew ended up improving an area of strength by sending out two prospects originally acquired via trade (in their recent round of veteran-paring swaps) along with a pair of 2014 draft picks.
What’s most interesting about this swap, perhaps, is that it could set Milwaukee up for yet further moves, perhaps helping to facilitate a move to deepen the organization’s rotation. The organization could still deal other outfielders if it so chooses after parting with Brinson to add Yelich. Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips are among the other players on hand that could be dangled. Interestingly, per Rosenthal (via Twitter), the club will not give up its pursuit of top center fielder Lorenzo Cain despite today’s move; in that scenario, presumably, Domingo Santana could even be dealt. Given that the Brewers also won’t be taking on much in the way of near-term salary in adding Yelich, the team could also still set out onto the open market to find a starter.
Yelich, who only recently turn 26, is guaranteed a manageable $43.25MM over the next four seasons, with a $15MM club option (or $1.25MM buyout) for the 2022 campaign. That’s a bargain rate for a player who has steadily produced at an above-average rate in all areas of the game ever since he cracked the majors in 2013.
In three of the past four seasons, Yelich has racked up exactly 4.5 fWAR. He has done that in different ways, too. Yelich has always hit at an above-average rate, but only once — 2016, when he posted a 132 wRC+ — turned in a truly superlative season at the plate. In 2017, he slashed a productive but hardly world-beating .282/.369/.439 with 18 home runs, but added greater value on the basepaths (a 6.8 BsR grade that ranked sixth in all of baseball). And it was top-notch corner outfield defense that was most noteworthy about Yelich’s performance in 2014.
Perhaps, then, there’s reason still to hope that Yelich can produce even more than he already has in a given campaign. Some also have suggested that his power could still develop, particularly if he spends more time away from Marlins Park. There are a few areas of concern — for instance, Yelich owns a mediocre career .272/.331/.373 batting line against lefties and graded poorly (-6) in center field last year in the view of Defensive Runs Saved. On the whole, though, he’s clearly one of the better young outfielders in baseball.
The price paid reflects the asset acquired here for the Brewers. By consensus, Brinson was the team’s best prospect. Though hardly considered a sure thing, the soon-to-be 24-year-old outfielder — acquired from the Rangers in the Jonathan Lucroy swap — is widely considered one of the 25 or so best pre-MLB assets in baseball. Last year, he slashed a robust .331/.400/.562 with 13 home runs and 11 steals in 340 plate appearances at Triple-A. He’s also considered a top-quality up-the-middle defender. Having briefly touched the bigs for the first time in 2017, Brinson will likely enter camp as the odds-on favorite to start in center for the new-look Marlins.
There’s depth in this prospect package, too. Harrison is likely the second-best asset heading to Miami. He hit on both ends of a promotion from Class A to High-A in 2017, compiling a .272/.350/.481 batting line on the year. Diaz, also a ’14 second-rounder, came to Milwaukee in the Jean Segura trade. He cracked top-100 prospect lists last winter. He ended up scuffling in his first attempt at High-A — .222/.334/.376 with 13 home runs but also 121 strikeouts in 455 plate appearances — but is just 21 and still viewed as a high-quality middle infield prospect. Yamamoto is also a 21-year-old who played last year at High-A. He had an emergent campaign, compiling a 2.51 ERA with 9.2 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 over 111 frames.
Yelich becomes the third excellent outfielder (joining Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna) to depart Miami this winter. The organization has loaded up on interesting young talent and drastically reduced its payroll commitments, but may well not yet be done with the dealmaking. Several higher-priced veterans could still be moved and top remaining assets like J.T. Realmuto, Dan Straily, and Justin Bour could still be discussed in trade talks.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the deal (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reported the inclusion of Brinson and Diaz (via Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Brewers Reportedly Make Offer For Christian Yelich
6:30pm: The two sides have indeed been discussing Yelich, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, but Milwaukee is just one of many teams in the running. Talks between Milwaukee and Miami are not in advanced stages, per Frisaro, who adds that Brinson is a target for the Marlins in talks. That’s hardly a surprise — the Marlins figure to ask any team for its top prospect (and quite a bit more) — but there’s no indication to date that the Brewers are willing to part with the touted 23-year-old.
3:11pm: The Brewers have made an offer for Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich and are showing “strong interest” in him, according to Craig Mish of SiriusXM Fantasy (via Twitter). Unsurprisingly, other teams are also still said to be involved in pursuit of Yelich.
Milwaukee’s involvement is a bit of a surprise at first glance, as the organization is overflowing with quality young outfielders and has been connected mostly to pitching this winter. Adding Yelich, though, might fill their opening in center field — assuming that Domingo Santana and Ryan Braun would continue to occupy the corners — while condensing and moving up the timeline of their overall talent pool.
Of course, the Brewers aren’t exactly hurting for options in center. The team can still utilize Keon Broxton there and/or call upon top youngsters Brett Phillips and Lewis Brinson. Clearly, though, it’s not a pressing area of need, so it may well be that the club is mostly looking into the possibility in case there’s an opportunity to achieve value.
Milwaukee, though, has been said to be entertaining a number of possibilities in recent weeks. They’ve been linked to Lorenzo Cain, another less than obvious fit on paper, while simultaneously exploring trades of players such as Broxton and Santana. The Brewers also remain connected to all of the top names on the free-agent market, having reportedly made a recent contract offer to Yu Darvish. Clearly, GM David Stearns and his staff are keeping an open mind as they look to improve upon last season’s 86 wins and continue to vie for the NL Central crown, alongside both the Cubs and the Cardinals.
Yelich’s steady production, appealing contract, and youth make him a sensible fit for any number of organizations. With the Marlins entering a rebuilding period, it seems clear he’s available, though the asking price assuredly will be extreme. Miami can control Yelich for another five years at a total of just $58MM, with the fifth year of that pact serving as a club option. Yelich’s agent, Joe Longo of Paragon Sports, recently went on-record with ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick to call his client’s relationship with the Marlins “irretrievably broken” and suggest that a trade could be best for all parties involved.
