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What A “Bad” Season Does For Albert Pujols

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With all of the discussion surrounding what Albert Pujols may earn in free agency this winter, the common factor that everyone counted on was that Pujols would…well, continue to hit like Albert Pujols in his contract year.  There was no reason to expect that 2011 would be any different from Pujols' usual superlative campaign, given his history of good health and incredibly consistent performance.

Though 46 games into 2011, however, the Machine hasn't yet kicked into full gear.  Entering Saturday's action, Pujols had seven homers and a .266/.338/.412 line.  These are above-average numbers (a 109 OPS+) compared to the average player but they're far below Pujols' career norms.  To give you an idea of how amazing Pujols has been in his career, his current .751 OPS is a whopping .290 points below his career 162-game average of 1.041.

Pujols has been a bit unlucky this year (a .260 BABIP) and in all likelihood, the slugger's final 2011 stats will be close to his usual Cooperstown-level standard.  But for a player that is hoping to sign a historic free agent contract this winter, any drop in form is a big setback.  Suppose, for a moment, that Pujols doesn't heat up and he finishes the season with a .750 OPS — what would such a performance do to the "Albertageddon" market this offseason?

Though Pujols' record of production and durability is almost unmatched in baseball history, one average year drops his price tag considerably.  Suddenly, more teams consider the wisdom of giving a mammoth deal to a player who turns 32 next season and who might already be on the decline.  With a .750 OPS season, Pujols' target suddenly goes from the heights of matching Alex Rodriguez's record deal with the Yankees to trying to match Adrian Gonzalez's seven-year, $154MM deal with the Red Sox.  Even with a poor season, Pujols should still be able to match Gonzalez's contract given that teams like the Cubs and Nationals could be in the bidding this winter and both teams have a history of overpaying for veterans they really want.

Oddly enough, a weak season would probably increase the chances of Pujols staying in St. Louis.  While Pujols undoubtedly would be confident of a return to form in 2012, he also doesn't want to spend his final years in a new city being booed as a contractual millstone around his new team's neck.  In St. Louis, even if Pujols does decline, he'll always be a local hero.  The Cardinals reportedly offered something akin to a nine-year deal worth $200MM last spring, and I could see the Cards making a new offer with a roughly-similar average annual value (say, $20-$25MM per season) but only for five or six guaranteed years.  With an offer like that plus the bonus of being a St. Louis icon for the rest of his life, Pujols could very well accept and choose to try and rebound in a familiar environment.

Another intriguing possibility is that Pujols might go in the other direction and take on more risk in the wake of a letdown year.  What if Pujols looked for a one-year, $28.5MM deal this winter?  It would give Pujols a chance to prove himself worthy of a multiyear deal, give agent Dan Lozano bragging rights at topping the average annual value of Roger Clemens' $28MM contract in 2007, and it would considerably increase the list of potential suitors.  Even if Pujols faltered in 2012, he'd still have one year's worth of a big payday under his belt, and given his career achievements, could still find something like a two-year, $40MM deal in the 2012-13 offseason.

Previewing Jaime Garcia’s Arbitration Debut

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If Jaime Garcia keeps pitching like this, David Price and Clayton Kershaw won’t be the only first-time arbitration eligible left-handers worth following this offseason. Garcia, the third-place finisher in last year’s National League Rookie of the Year balloting, enters tonight's start leading the league in wins and shutouts and third in the Senior Circuit with a 1.89 ERA.

Jaime Garcia

The 24-year-old has thrown 300 fewer innings than Kershaw and 175 fewer frames than Price, so his salary doesn’t figure to approach $6MM in 2012, as theirs might. Tommy John surgery sidelined the Cardinals lefty in 2009, so he trails some other first-time arbitration eligible pitchers in important categories like wins, innings and strikeouts.

However, Garcia doesn’t compare well with Shaun Marcum and Francisco Liriano, who are also veterans of Tommy John surgery. Both pitchers entered the arbitration process for the first time with little leverage, as their respective platform years were poor (Marcum missed the 2009 season and Liriano's '09 campaign was a dud).

Garcia, on the other hand, figures to have lots of positives on his side this winter. He's 5-0 with an ERA under 2.00 and four times as many strikeouts as walks. Throw in an All-Star appearance, some postseason success or some Cy Young votes and his case would become even stronger. If he stays healthy, he’ll earn far, far more than what Liriano ($1.6MM) and Marcum ($850K) earned their first time through arbitration.

Jordan Zimmermann, another Tommy John veteran who will go to arbitration for the first time this winter, doesn't measure up to Garcia in terms of career numbers, and isn't off to the same blazing start. On the other hand, Max Scherzer has pitched tremendously (6-0, 3.20 ERA, 51 Ks) so far and figures to have a stronger case than Garcia this winter because of the superior length and consistency of his career contribution.

Looking back a year, there's Phil Hughes, who was born just two weeks before Garcia. He's another starter who went to arbitration without impressive ‘bulk’ stats. It won’t be easy, but Garcia could match the 31 career wins, 369 innings and 323 strikeouts Hughes had after 2010. And given his current pace, the Cardinals lefty could finish with a markedly better ERA, both for his career and his platform season (Hughes had a career 4.20 ERA after last year). That would help push Garcia’s 2012 earnings beyond Hughes’ current $2.7MM salary.

There's no way Garcia will match the 51 wins or 671 2/3 innings Jered Weaver had when he went to arbitration for the first time, so Garcia can likely forget about a $4.365MM salary. But his career 2.72 ERA is a full run better than the 3.73 mark Weaver had after 2009, which will help Garcia and his representatives at TWC Sports.

There’s little point in getting overly precise with arbitration predictions when so much of the season lies ahead, but it’s clear that Garcia could earn $3-4MM in 2012. Definite success for a pitcher who missed an entire season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Cardinals Claim Jess Todd

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Jess Todd is heading back to St. Louis. The Cardinals claimed the right-hander off of waivers from the Yankees, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News (on Twitter).

The Cardinals selected Todd in the second round of the 2007 draft and promoted him to the Major Leagues in 2009. That same year, the Cardinals sent Todd to Cleveland along with current Indians closer Chris Perez for Mark DeRosa. Earlier this season the Indians designated Todd for assignment and the Yankees claimed the 25-year-old. Soon afterward, New York needed roster space and designated Todd for assignment.

Todd has allowed 19 hits, 8 walks and 13 runs in 10 2/3 minor league innings this year, striking out 7. However, he has averaged more than one strikeout per inning in his five-year minor league career. Todd has 28 1/3 innings of big league experience and his 7.62 ERA is unimpressive despite a strong 29K/12BB ratio.

2012 Contract Issues: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series, and their offseason should have plenty of intrigue.  Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:

Eligible For Free Agency (8)

  • Earlier this month, three GMs who spoke to SI's Jon Heyman predicted Albert Pujols would re-sign with the Cardinals after the season.  The situation seems to have gone dormant since Spring Training, but not in a discouraging way.  Perhaps coincidentally, Pujols is having the worst season of his career.  It's only about a quarter over, but should the slugger fail to reach the .400 OBP and .600 SLG for which he's typically been considered a lock, that would have to affect the price tag and make the Cardinals' offer (north of $200MM over nine years) more palatable.  Still, it's hard to picture Pujols not requiring a salary in the $24-26MM range.
  • Lance Berkman has proven last year's power outage to be a fluke; he's leading the NL with a .694 SLG.  He's close to the top in home runs, RBI, and OBP as well.  Should Berkman's health and amazing offense continue, maybe he'll have his eye on Paul Konerko's three-year, $37.5MM contract, which was similarly signed by a mid-30s player coming off a huge year.  I imagine he'll have to let the Cardinals resolve the Pujols situation first, if he's aiming to return.
  • Ryan Franklin seems headed for a minor league deal, as he's lost his closing job and has been battered in his first 13 2/3 innings.
  • The sample is tiny, but Trever Miller hasn't handled lefties well this year.  Miguel Batista is another Cardinals veteran reliever whose ERA is much better than his peripheral statistics.
  • Gerald Laird, Nick Punto, and Brian Tallet are also eligible for free agency.

Contract Options (3)

  • Chris Carpenter: $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  Though Carpenter's ERA is 4.95, his supporting stats are similar to last year's.  The Cardinals will have to decide on him before Pujols, most likely.  If Carpenter is healthy the Cards probably have to pick this up, knowing that they could at least trade the 36-year-old if need be.
  • Adam Wainwright: $9MM club option for 2012, $12MM club option for '13, must be either voided or exercised at the same time.  In his conversation with Heyman earlier this month, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak seemed to imply the team is planning to exercise Wainwright's options.  Barring any major setbacks it's an easy call.
  • Yadier Molina: $7MM club option with a $750K buyout.  This option seems likely to be exercised.

Arbitration Eligible (6)

The Cardinals have several notable arbitration cases, starting with Rasmus and Garcia.  Rasmus' career numbers should keep him at $3.5MM or less.  Garcia's numbers are limited by missing the '09 season, but he's having a fantastic year and should jump past $3MM (more on that from MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith this week).  Theriot and Schumaker are not locks to be tendered, but we'll see how the rest of the season plays out for them.  If everyone is retained I'm estimating around $18MM for the team's arbitration eligibles.

2012 Payroll Obligation

The Cardinals' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $47.538MM not including the buyouts for Carpenter and Molina.  If the three options are picked up they'll be at $78.538MM, and the arbitration eligible group could bring commitments up to $97MM.  If payroll remains steady at $109MM, there's only about $12MM to work with before accounting for minimum salary players.  I'm sure the Cardinals have already worked out ways to fit in a salary exceeding $20MM for Pujols, whether by backloading, raising payroll, or not retaining Carpenter, Theriot, and Schumaker.  But if Pujols is re-signed it's hard to see where an eight-figure salary for Berkman fits in or how the Cardinals will have any significant money for other improvements.

Heyman On Mets, Pujols, Chapman, Yankees

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Mets owners Fred and Jeff Wilpon are closer to settling on a limited partner who will bring cash and keep the organization running, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. Unlike the Dodgers, whose ownership situation “seems to be deteriorating,” the Mets are doing fine, according to Commissioner Bud Selig. Here’s the latest from Heyman:

  • If Dodgers owner Frank McCourt has support, it’s either “minute or nonexistent.”
  • People who know Mets GM Sandy Alderson expect him to trade Jose Reyes and others if he believes it’s best for the organization.
  • There’s no indication yet that the Cubs would be willing to offer Albert Pujols $200MM or more in free agency, Heyman writes. However, the Cubs have money and no long-term answer at first base.
  • Some baseball people believe Aroldis Chapman and Mike Leake could use time in the minors.
  • Though the Yankees aren’t concerned with Derek Jeter’s bat, they are “very concerned” about Jorge Posada. The DH has a .162/.273/.352 line with 6 homers this year.

Quick Hits: Draft, Cubs, Theriot

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Links for Thursday, as Yogi Berra celebrates his birthday (number 86!) along with current players Evan Meek (28), Felipe Lopez (31) and Wes Helms (35)…

  • Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon and Bubba Starling remain atop Keith Law's latest ranking of the top 100 draft prospects.  Law says Starling could be "the single most talented player in this draft."
  • MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo also has some info about draft prospects, including promising Kentucky right-hander Alex Meyer.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says this isn't the year the Cubs win the World Series.
  • At ESPN.com, Casey Stengel tops David Schoenfield's list of the ten greatest managers in baseball history.
  • A few St. Louis Post-Dispatch baseball writers weigh in on the Ryan Theriot acquisition. Bernie Miklasz says the Cardinals acquired the infielder to be an upgrade on offense and increase the team's toughness.

MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post

NL Central Notes: Pujols, Cubs, Ascanio, Hall

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Tim provided updates on all six NL Central teams earlier in the day, but plenty more news is emerging from baseball's biggest division. Here's the latest, including a follow-up on Jose Ascanio…

  • Though the Cardinals probably wish that Albert Pujols and Cubs GM Jim Hendry hadn’t exchanged a heavily scrutinized public hug, they aren’t overly concerned with it, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (on Twitter).
  • The Pirates recalled Ascanio and placed Michael Crotta on the DL with right elbow inflammation, according to Colin Dunlap of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (on Twitter). The team had to decide whether to add Ascanio to the roster or risk losing him to another team, since he's out of options.
  • As MLB.com's Brian McTaggart explains, the Astros will have to clear up roster space when Jeff Keppinger returns from the disabled list. Bill Hall could slide into a utility role, or the Astros could part ways with him. Including the buyout on next year’s mutual option, about $2.5MM remains on Hall’s deal.

NL Central Links: All Six Teams

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The Cardinals lead the NL Central by one game over the Reds.  A link for each of the six teams:

  • The $680MM deal to sell the Astros to Jim Crane's group "could be completed as early as next week," report Zachary Levine and Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle.  Ownership of the club could be tranferred to Crane "as early as July," they write.  Crane is believed to prefer having an agreement in place before the June 6th draft, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
  • Pirates reliever Jose Ascanio's rehab period ends today, reports Colin Dunlap of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, and the team must decide whether to add the out of options righty to the 25-man roster or risk losing him to another team.  The 26-year-old has been battling shoulder and elbow injuries, but MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch wrote Monday that adding him to the big league bullpen is the most likely move.
  • You read yesterday about the hug heard 'round the Midwest, as Cubs GM Jim Hendry embraced Albert Pujols before the game at Wrigley.  The hug means next to nothing; as CSN's Patrick Mooney points out, Hendry has tons of connections throughout the industry.  Still, it can't hurt to note that Cubs owner Tom Ricketts shook hands with the free agent to be as well.
  • Cardinals manager Tony La Russa has begun an "open-ended convalescence" in the words of Joe Strauss' source, as he recovers from shingles.  The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporter says La Russa "will miss the rest of the team's current road trip and perhaps significantly more time."
  • Despite allowing five runs and nine hits in six innings, Brewers offseason acquisition Shaun Marcum picked up his fourth win yesterday.  Marcum is showing no ill effects from his springtime shoulder stiffness; his 4.17 K/BB ratio ranks sixth in the NL.  With a strong season I can see him getting close to $10MM for 2012, his final arbitration year.
  • Aroldis Chapman won't be sent to the minors to work out his issues, Reds manager Dusty Baker told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  The hard-throwing lefty has allowed at least one run and two walks in each of his last three appearances.

NL Central Notes: Pujols, Hendry, Arredondo

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Links for Tuesday night, as Carlos Zambrano and Chris Carpenter face off at Wrigley Field and Ryan Theriot explains his thoughts on the Cubs–Cardinals rivalry…

  • Cubs GM Jim Hendry spoke with Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols behind the batting cage before today's game and Hendry denied that anything unusual occurred between him and the free agent-to-be, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. “I like Albert. We’ve always gotten along," Hendry said. "Great, great player. I admire the heck out of him.”
  • Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune breaks down a few of Hendry's recent moves before noting that it's a "do-or-die season" for the Cubs GM.
  • Jose Arredondo's rehab runs out after tonight, though the Reds don't have to activate him, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. We can expect the Reds to make a decision about Arredondo's future Friday, according to Fay.

Quick Hits: Morales, Padres, Cardinals, Hamels

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Links for Sunday, as players around the league break out the pink bats. Happy Mother's Day!

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