Brendan Bianowicz continues to update the GM Trade History series, covering the NL Central today. Click below to download Excel spreadsheets chronicling trades, free agent signings, and top draft picks for each GM.
Cardinals Rumors
Cardinals Will Be Paying Holliday Through 2029
As part of his new seven year, $120MM contract, Matt Holliday will be collecting paychecks from the Cardinals through 2029 according to the AP (via SI.com). As you know, the contract calls for a $17MM annual salary through 2016 with an option for 2017, however $2MM is deferred without interest each season. Depending on whether or not the option is picked up/vests, Holliday will be paid either $1.4MM or $1.6MM on July 15th every year from 2020 to 2029.
Just for some perspective, Holliday will be 49-years-old on July 15th, 2029.
Matt Holliday Signing Reactions
Yesterday Matt Holliday and the Cardinals agreed to a seven-year, $120MM deal, possibly worth $136MM over eight years if Holliday finishes in the top ten in the MVP voting in 2016 (he'll head into that season as a 36-year-old). $2MM deferred per year knocks down the present-day value of the deal a bit. Let's take a look at reactions from around the web.
- ESPN's Buster Olney spoke to one GM who thinks the Cardinals overpaid by about $30MM given the lack of competition for Holliday. Another exec's crack: "I guess that will end the collusion talk." Olney also wonders if the Cardinals can afford to pay Holliday and Albert Pujols $43-47MM from 2012 forward. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has the same concerns.
- ESPN's Keith Law suggests the Cardinals are the NL Central frontrunners for 2010 and 2011. But the downside to having both Holliday and Pujols locked up for big bucks is that the Cards would need to fill out the rest of the roster with bargains. They might not have the farm system to do so.
- Aaron Schafer of Viva El Birdos offers his take: "the money's fine, but the length of the deal is a killer."
Heyman On Damon, Tejada, Pineiro, Molina
The latest from SI's Jon Heyman…
- Heyman believes the Yankees would not go beyond one year and $6MM to re-sign Johnny Damon. On MLB Home Plate Boras said Damon "would just have to move forward," while not faulting the Yankees for sticking to a budget. Heyman suggests four alternatives for Damon: the Giants, Mariners, Braves, and Angels. The Angels would be a tough fit barring a Juan Rivera trade, as their outfield and DH spots are full. The problem with the Braves is that they're approaching their payroll limit.
- Despite a report that the Cardinals probably can't afford Miguel Tejada, Heyman sees them as the best fit. Heyman's $8MM idea seems too pricey though.
- The Mets debated offering Joel Pineiro a two-year, $15MM Jason Marquis special, but at this point Pineiro seems to be seeking Randy Wolf's three-year, $29.75MM deal. MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone sees the team landing Jon Garland instead.
- Heymans says the Mets "seem serious about sticking with an offer of one year and a vesting option" for Bengie Molina. However, Cerrone "gets the feeling the Mets might have a two-year deal on the table."
What’s Next For The Cardinals?
The Cardinals committed $120MM over seven years to Matt Holliday yesterday; he'll be paid $17MM in each year of the deal (with $2MM deferred annually). Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the contract "leaves the club with little financial space to address the No. 5 starter, the opening at third base and the wish to add a reliever."
Miguel Tejada and Felipe Lopez are known third base targets for the Cardinals, but Goold says either player would be difficult to fit into the budget based on current demands. Goold's colleague Joe Strauss says Tejada and Lopez are probably out "unless their market collapses." Goold expects David Freese to get a crack at the hot corner, with internal candidates filling the fifth starter role as well. The CHONE projection system has Freese hitting .269/.335/.442 in 2010, which wouldn't be any worse than Tejada and Lopez's projections.
The Cards could add an affordable left-handed bench bat via free agency, and Goold says Ryan Church is one name on the radar. As for the bullpen, Goold speculates on Octavio Dotel and notes that a Russ Springer reunion has been discussed. The Cardinals' offseason financial flexibility will hinge on the arbitration cases of Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker. Goold wouldn't be surprised to see March bargains or midseason additions if the Cardinals stay quiet over the next few months.
Matt Holliday, Cardinals Could Agree This Week
10:06pm: Cardinals' manager Tony La Russa says that any deal should be finalized this week, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The piece offers plenty of detail about this past weekend's negotiations, which have left the Cardinals with "a sense of optimism" regarding Holliday.
5:30pm: Sources tell ESPN.com's Buster Olney that the Cardinals and Holliday "are close to a deal."
12:35pm: It's been suggested that the Cardinals have offered multiple contract scenarios to Holliday. One might have been seven years and $112MM, according to SI's Jon Heyman. Also, Heyman talked to one source who believes the Orioles are "laying in the weeds" despite recent denials.
Meanwhile, Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch offers his take, in which he notes that silence from Cards GM John Mozeliak might be a positive sign.
8:30am: A Friday tweet by Cardinals manager Tony La Russa had some fans wondering if a Matt Holliday signing was imminent, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch contacted La Russa to get an explanation exceeding 140 characters. La Russa explained to Goold:
"We're getting ready to move. I know they’ve been talking a lot with Matt. I know we have a really smart Plan B…(It) could be on Plan A, or it could be our Plan B. The point is, we're not going to get stuck."
La Russa told Goold he was not referring specifically to Holliday with his "Soon the Cards will be smart too" tweet. However, Goold did learn from one source that there could be a Holliday resolution this week. Goold speculated that of the various packages offered to the slugger, six or seven years with a guarantee over $100MM might do the trick. Tracy Ringolsby of FOX Sports suggested on Wednesday that Holliday aims to top the $18MM average annual salary he passed up from the Rockies in '08. It will be interesting to see how high the Cardinals are willing to go given the lack of a clear second suitor for Holliday.
Rosenthal On Holliday, Sheets, Valverde
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new column up in which he predicts destinations for ten of the top remaining free agents. A few worth noting:
- Rosenthal guesses the Cardinals will sign Matt Holliday for around seven years and $120MM.
- Rosenthal likes the Marlins for Aroldis Chapman.
- He sees the Cubs nabbing Ben Sheets, a possibility I hadn't really considered. It's unclear how much money the Cubs have left and how much Sheets will require.
- Rosenthal expects the Tigers to sign one of the available DH types (Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Carlos Delgado are out there).
- Rosenthal's choice for Jose Valverde, the Tigers, makes more sense than my earlier A's prediction. Rosenthal admits that the Tigers surrendering their #19 pick would be "a significant obstacle," but one person I talked to noted that it might not be since the Tigers traditionally go over slot and could therefore get a big talent later in the draft.
Odds & Ends: Bay, Adrian Gonzalez, Cardinals
Some links for your viewing pleasure on the first Sunday of 2010:
- WEEI's Rob Bradford and Alex Speier write that Jason Bay "agreed to his deal with the Mets on Christmas Day, four days before it was initially reported." SI's Jon Heyman tweets that Bay's "extensive medical exam" will take place Monday. MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone passes along a WFAN report saying a press conference could happen Tuesday if the physical goes well.
- Padres GM Jed Hoyer talked to Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe about Adrian Gonzalez. Hoyer says "a number of teams have inquired, but he's certainly not a player we're looking to move."
- Viva El Birdos takes a look at some free agent options for the Cardinals, making a case for or against each one.
- Riley Cooper, the Rangers' 26th-round draft pick, says he hasn't been contacted by Texas in months and may want to pursue a career in the NFL. Cooper made a deal with Texas to return to the Gators and play his senior season of football.
- Roch Kubatko talks about the Orioles' hole at first base, as well as the myth that it's easy to convert other position players to first basemen.
- Daniel Moroz at Camden Crazies looks at the loss of power for Garrett Atkins over the past several seasons, compared to the rising power of Adam Jones.
Odds & Ends: Rincon, Calero, Rangers, Encarnacion
Here are some links to kick off the weekend…
- Troy Renck of The Denver Post provides the details on Juan Rincon's contract with the Rockies. He'll earn $800K plus incentives in the big leagues, or $20K per month in the minors.
- Satchel Price at Beyond The Box Score wonders why we haven't heard more about Kiko Calero this offseason. The Cubs and Giants were interested in the righthander at various times this offseason.
- Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas reiterates what we heard yesterday: the Rangers are seeking a veteran catcher. He mentions that they've shown interest in both Rod Barajas and Dioner Navarro.
- Edwin Encarnacion suffered burns to his face in a fireworks accident according to ESPN Deportes' Enrique Rojas. He will not require surgery, and will be ready to go in Spring Training.
- Jeff Passan at Yahoo! Sports lists ten players we should keep an on eye to see how their market develops during the remainder of the offseason. His list is led by Matt Holliday and Aroldis Chapman.
- MLB.com's Matthew Leach notes that if the Cardinals felt they weren't in a good position to re-sign Holliday, they would have moved on to other targets by now.
- Dick Kaegel of MLB.com says that "it would take a calamitous showing" for Royals' manager Trey Hillman to lose his job this season given his relationship with GM Dayton Moore.
- Steve Slowinski at DRaysBay goes back in time to evaluate the Danys Baez and Lance Carter for Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany trade.
Matt Holliday Rumors: Thursday
12:57pm: Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says Scott Boras might consider one or two-year offers for Holliday. However, there are nine-figure offers out there, so, as Miklasz says, a short-term deal seems "highly unlikely." Miklasz hears that Boras won't go for a five-year offer from the Cardinals. The agent seems to be going for a seven or eight-year deal, but the Cards remain confident in their chances of bringing Holliday back.
8:17am: Yesterday we heard that the Cardinals were "working toward an agreement" with Matt Holliday. Talks are picking up and the Cards' offer is apparently considerable. Jon Heyman and Buster Olney suggested that the Cards have offered $100MM or more, Tracy Ringolsby heard that the Cards offered $140MM and Derrick Goold said the sides have even discussed an eight-year deal.
One team that won't be interested at that level: the Orioles. Team president Andy MacPhail told Jeff Zrebiec that there is no validity to Ringolsby's report of a $130MM offer.
Today, John Tomase of the Boston Herald reports that Holliday and agent Scott Boras asked for a deal worth $170MM when the Red Sox offered $85MM back in early December. That's Mark Teixeira territory, so the Red Sox moved on.
