Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?
The National League Central is arguably the tightest division in the majors right now. That’s subjective but borne out by projection systems. The FanGraphs projected standings have all five teams currently slated for between 83 and 77 wins, the smallest spread from first to last out of the six divisions. The PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus aren’t quite as tight, with a spread of 11.7 games from first to last, but that’s still narrower than any other division in the league.
Last year, the Brewers took the division fairly easily, going 92-70 and finishing nine games up on the second-place Cubs. But a lot has changed since then and there could still be more changes to come. The “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned, as do several other free agents. One of those players joining an NL Central club could change the calculation but let’s take a look at where things stand now, in order of last year’s standings.
Brewers: 92-70 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79
The reigning champions have undergone some significant changes, particularly in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late last year, with the rehab putting his 2024 season in jeopardy. He was non-tendered and re-signed but won’t be a factor until late in the upcoming season, if at all. On top of that, the club traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, meaning they are now without both of their co-aces from recent years.
That makes the rotation clearly weaker than it has been in previous seasons, even though they did acquire some reinforcements. DL Hall came over in the Burnes trade and the Brewers will give him a chance to earn a rotation job. They also re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea in addition to bringing in Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to back up Freddy Peralta, who has now been vaulted to the top spot. Prospects Jacob Misiorowski and Robert Gasser could push for roles during the season.
While the starting rotation has clearly been diminished, the lineup should be better. They didn’t lose any core pieces from last year’s position player mix while they have signed free agents Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez for some extra thump. Prospect Jackson Chourio should be up to make his debut this year while other young players like Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang will hopefully continue to take steps forward. Joey Ortiz, who came over in the Burnes deal alongside Hall, could seize a role on the infield.
Cubs: 83-79 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 80.8
The Cubs have been retooling for a few years but just narrowly missed a return to the postseason in 2023. Their finished 83-79, just one game behind the Diamondbacks and Marlins, who got the last two Wild Card spots. They then saw Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and Marcus Stroman become free agents, subtracting two regulars from the lineup and a starter from the rotation. Candelario since jumped to the Reds and Stroman to the Yankees, though Bellinger is still out there.
In the rotation, Stroman has effectively been replaced by the signing of Shota Imanaga. The Cubs signed him in January and it’s hoped that he can supply at least some mid-rotation production to make up for the loss of Stroman, slotting in next to Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. A bounceback from Taillon could arguably make the rotation even better this year. The same could be said about a step forward from rookie Jordan Wicks, who debuted last year.
In the lineup, the Cubs are hoping that Michael Busch can be a difference maker. Acquired from the Dodgers in an offseason trade, he has always hit well in the minors but was blocked from seizing a role on his previous club. He’ll take over the first base spot, which was a bit of a hole for the Cubs last year. Bringing back Bellinger to center field still seems possible, but until it happens, the plan appears to be to count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to seize a job. The youngster is considered a great defender but his bat is questionable. Mike Tauchman is on hand if PCA doesn’t make a case for himself.
Signing Chapman to take over third could be a logical move but it’s also possible the club could slot Christopher Morel there. He has an exciting amount of power in his bat and his throwing arm, but concerns about his defense and propensity for strikeouts. Still, the bar is not too high for him to be better than guys like Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom.
Reds: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 79 wins in 2024, PECOTA 78.7
A surge of young position player talent was almost enough to vault the Reds into the playoffs last year. They did that despite a team-wide ERA of 4.83 and and 5.43 mark from their starting rotation. No significant contributors to the 2023 club reached free agency, so even just a bit of internal improvement could make them a contender.
But the Reds weren’t just going to rely on their incumbent options, as they have been fairly active this offseason. They added Candelario to their position player mix despite already having plenty of bats for their lineup. That should give them some cover for any of their young players suffering some regression or an injury.
They also bolstered the pitching staff which, as mentioned, was an issue last year. Free agents Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter were all signed to the roster. Montas is coming off a lengthy injury absence but was quite effective the last time he was healthy. Martínez could be a back-end addition for the rotation or he might wind up in the bullpen with Pagán and Suter. They could also get better just via health, as no one on the club logged 150 innings last year as each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft spent time on the IL, while Andrew Abbott didn’t debut until midseason.
Pirates: 76-86 in 2023, FG projects 77 wins in 2024, PECOTA 73
Somewhat similar to the Reds, the Pirates also rode a wave of young talent last year, though it didn’t have the same staying power. They were in first place in the division as late as June 15 but faded as the season wore on and finished outside contention.
They were facing almost no roster losses, as their most significant free agents from 2023 were Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez. McCutchen re-signed while Velasquez only made eight starts last year anyway due to elbow surgery. But they faced other challenges as right-hander Johan Oviedo and catcher Endy Rodríguez both required UCL surgery this offseason and will miss all of 2024.
With Rodríguez out, the club is hoping Henry Davis can pivot back behind the plate and take over. They signed veteran Yasmani Grandal as a bit of insurance in case things don’t work out with Davis. They grabbed a couple of veteran starters as well in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales, hoping that duo can over for the losses of Oviedo and Velasquez as well as the struggles of Roansy Contreras. The impending debut of prospect Paul Skenes could also help in that department as well, with Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler perhaps not far behind.
The lineup hasn’t drastically changed, with Rowdy Tellez brought in as a bounceback candidate. Perhaps their most impactful lineup upgrade could be the health of Oneil Cruz, who missed most of 2023 due ankle surgery. They also signed Aroldis Chapman to help David Bednar form a lockdown late-inning duo.
Cardinals: 71-91 in 2023, FG projects 83 wins in 2024, PECOTA 84.7
Many predicted the Cards to win the division last year but it clearly did not happen. Plenty of things went wrong, particularly on the pitching side of things, and they ended up in the basement. The team-wide ERA of 4.83 was better than just five teams in the majors, with the 5.08 rotation ERA even worse. Adam Wainwright‘s swan song turned out to be ear-splitting while Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty also struggled. Depth guys like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford were all bad to varying degrees.
Remaking the rotation was the clear priority this winter and they have been active in that department. They quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson at the start of the offseason to replace Flaherty, Montgomery and Wainwright. Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Tekoah Roby and Drew Rom were all acquired at last year’s deadline and could make the emergency depth stronger. Victor Santos was added this offseason as part of the Tyler O’Neill trade.
Not too much has changed on the position player side of things. As mentioned, O’Neill was shipped out but the club is hoping to replace him internally. The emergence of Masyn Winn at shortstop means that Tommy Edman is probably now an outfielder full-time, assuming Winn produces better results than he did in his debut last year. Bounceback performances, particularly from Nolan Arenado, will be key. In the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton were traded last summer. The Cards traded for Andrew Kittredge and signed Keynan Middleton to try to make up for those two departures.
Compared to the other divisions in the big leagues, this one is the hardest to decide on a clear favorite. The Brewers are the defending champs but have lost their two aces. Can the extra offense make up for that? Was it a rare blip that the Cardinals were so bad last year? Have the Cubs done enough to get over the hump? Can the Reds or Pirates get enough improvement from their young players to surge ahead?
What do you think? Have your say in the poll below!
Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?
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Cardinals 29% (3,702)
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Reds 24% (3,092)
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Cubs 21% (2,756)
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Brewers 18% (2,301)
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Pirates 8% (1,045)
Total votes: 12,896
Angels Acquire Guillermo Zuñiga, Designate Austin Warren
The Angels announced Wednesday that they’ve acquired right-hander Guillermo Zuñiga from the Cardinals, who’d previously designated him for assignment. Anaheim sent cash to St. Louis in the deal. To clear a spot on their own 40-man roster, the Halos designated righty Austin Warren for assignment.
Zuñiga, 25, made his big league debut with the Cards in 2023, tossing two innings and allowing a run on two hits and no walks with four strikeouts. That’s the only MLB experience of his career to date. After becoming a minor league free agent following the ’22 season, he inked a surprising Major League deal with the Cards but ultimately spent the bulk of his season in Triple-A Memphis, where he posted an unsightly 7.63 ERA in 30 2/3 innings.
The results might not be pretty, but Zuñiga features a triple-digit heater and misses bats at a high level. Like so many pitchers who can approximate the eye-popping 99.4 mph average on Zuñiga’s fastball, however, he’s battled his share of command issues throughout his minor league tenure. Zuñiga walked 13.7% of his opponents in Triple-A last year and has issued a free pass to 10.6% of his minor league opponents.
Zuñiga still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, so the Angels will be able to move him freely between Anaheim and their Triple-A affiliate in Salt Lake this season and next — if he sticks on the team’s 40-man roster. Barring another DFA, he’ll head to big league camp with the Angels and vie for a spot in a massively overhauled bullpen that has added veterans Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis Garcia, Adam Cimber and Jose Cisnero on free agent deals this offseason.
As for the 28-year-old Warren, he’s spent time in the Angels’ bullpen in each of the past three seasons, compiling a total of 38 innings with a solid 3.55 earned run average. Most of his success came as a rookie in 2021, however, when he tossed 20 1/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball. Since then, Warren has been tagged for 11 runs in 17 2/3 innings with just a 14.5% strikeout rate against a strong 6.6% walk rate.
Warren’s struggles began in 2022 and culminated with a stint on the injured list in 2023. By early May, the team revealed that he’d been diagnosed with a torn ligament in his pitching elbow and would require Tommy John surgery. As such, Warren is slated to miss the early portion of the 2024 campaign and may well have been ticketed for the 60-day injured list, were it not for today’s DFA.
The Angels will have a week to trade Warren or attempt to pass him through waivers. Any team looking to acquire him would have to do so knowing that Warren will likely be shelved into the summer at the earliest.
Cardinals Designate Guillermo Zuniga For Assignment
The Cardinals announced this evening that they’ve designated right-hander Guillermo Zuniga for assignment. The move makes room for recently-signed right-hander Keynan Middleton on the club’s 40-man roster.
Zuniga, 25, signed with St. Louis on a big league deal last offseason despite the righty never having pitched above the Double-A level to that point in his career after the right-hander became a free agent on the heels of a pair of seasons where he struck out a combined 29.8% of batters faced at the Double-A level. Despite that minimal experience, it didn’t take long for Zuniga to make his big league debut last season. The Cardinals added him to the roster in time for him to make his big league debut on May 2 as he struck out two without allowing a hit or a walk in a scoreless inning of work.
That would be Zuniga’s only big league appearance for quite some time, as he returned to Triple-A shortly after and spent time on the injured list in the minor leagues. Eventually, the club called Zuniga back up to the majors in August though his stay on the big league roster once again proved to be short-lived. The righty allowed a run on two hits while striking out two in the sole appearance of his second stint in the big leagues before being placed on the 15-day injured list with a forearm strain that eventually ended the right-hander’s season.
In between Zuniga’s brief stints in the majors this year, he struggled badly at the Triple-A level with a 7.63 ERA across 29 appearances. While he struck out a respectable 25.3% of batters faced during that time, he struggled badly with his control and allowed a worrisome 13.7% walk rate. In addition to his seemingly wavering command this past season, health is another concern for the righty entering the 2024 campaign. Updates on Zuniga’s strained right forearm have been few and far between since he was transferred to the 60-day IL back in September, so it’s unclear if he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.
That being said, the right-hander has flashed a plus breaking ball and can touch triple digits with his heater, making him an enticing arm for most any team to add as optionable bullpen depth if healthy. Looking ahead, the Cardinals will have seven days to either trade Zuniga or attempt to pass him through waivers. If they’re successful in passing Zuniga through waivers, he figures to remain in the organization as non-roster depth headed into the 2024 campaign. As for St. Louis, the club’s retooled bullpen figures to feature some combination of Middleton, Andrew Kittredge, Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos and JoJo Romero covering the late innings.
Cardinals Sign Keynan Middleton
The Cardinals announced today that they’ve signed free agent reliever Keynan Middleton, as first reported by Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). The club announced that the deal is a one-year arrangement with a club option for 2025. Murray adds that the ACES client is guaranteed $6MM by the deal, and will earn $11MM if the option is exercised. Middleton will make $5MM next season with a $1MM buyout on the $6MM option, according to The Associated Press.
Middleton, 30, is coming off a solid season split between the White Sox and Yankees. The right-hander had bounced between the Angels, Mariners and Diamondbacks over the preceding three years. He inked a minor league deal with Chicago last January and was selected onto the MLB roster within a couple weeks of Opening Day.
The 6’3″ righty had a strong first half in Chicago. He pitched to a 3.96 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opposing hitters across 36 1/3 innings. With the Sox out of contention and Middleton headed back to free agency, he became one of the more obvious trade targets at the deadline. Chicago flipped him to New York for High-A righty Juan Carela on August 1.
Middleton made headlines a few days later with some parting shots at the White Sox’s clubhouse culture. Lance Lynn, who’d played with Middleton in Chicago before being traded to the Dodgers, went on the record to back him up. They’ll be teammates again in St. Louis after Lynn inked a one-year deal with the Cards at the start of the offseason.
Shoulder inflammation sent Middleton to the injured list in early September. That kept him from making much of an impact in the Bronx, where he was limited to 12 appearances. He struck out 17 and allowed only three runs in 14 1/3 innings as a Yankee, finishing his year on a generally strong note. For the season, he worked to a 3.38 ERA with a 30.2% strikeout percentage. He logged 50 2/3 innings, his heaviest workload since his 2017 rookie campaign.
While Middleton runs his fastball into the 95-96 MPH range, he leaned more heavily on both his changeup and slider last season. He missed bats with all three pitches and generated swinging strikes on an excellent 17% of his offerings overall. As has been the case throughout his career, Middleton issued a few more walks than is ideal — a 10.8% clip. He has more swing-and-miss upside than a standard middle reliever, though.
St. Louis entered the offseason with a goal of adding two pitchers to the bullpen. They dealt outfielder Richie Palacios to the Rays for Andrew Kittredge last month. They’ll dip into free agency for Middleton on what should be a modest one- or two-year commitment. The Cardinals have a projected payroll around $179MM, according to Roster Resource. That’s right in line with their season-opening mark a year ago.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Cardinals Outright Moises Gomez
The Cardinals have outrighted Moises Gomez off their 40-man roster and assigned the outfielder to Triple-A Memphis, according to Gomez’s MLB.com profile page. St. Louis designated Gomez for assignment earlier this week, but he’ll remain in the organization after clearing waivers.
Gomez started his career in the Rays organization and joined the Cards as a minor league free agent prior to the 2022 season. At age 25 and after eight seasons of pro ball, Gomez has yet to make his Major League debut, which is perhaps in part due to the Cardinals’ glut of outfielders. On a team with less crowding in the outfield, Gomez would likely have gotten at least a cup of coffee in the Show after a huge 2022 season that saw him hit .294/.371/.624 with 39 homers over 501 plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A.
However, Gomez’s dream year was helped by a hugely inflated BABIP, and he still struck out in 174 of those 501 PA. The regression bug bit hard last year during a full season in Memphis, as Gomez hit only .232/.293/.457 in 567 PA. Gomez slightly cut back on the strikeouts and he hit 30 homers, but his walk rate also dropped.
The power potential is obvious here, though between the problems making contact and Gomez’s average-at-best corner outfield glove, it isn’t surprising that rival teams didn’t put in a waiver claim. Gomez will get more time at Triple-A to see if he can finally correct his approach at the plate, or at least cut back on the strikeouts enough to make himself a viable candidate for a call-up. St. Louis still has plenty of outfield options, though the list got slightly shorter when Tyler O’Neill was traded to the Red Sox earlier this winter.
Jimy Williams Passes Away
Former player, manager and coach Jimy Williams has passed away, according to announcement from his previous clubs. He was 80 years old.
Williams was born in Santa Maria, California in 1943 and started his professional career by signing with the Red Sox. He was selected by the Cardinals in the 1965 Rule 5 draft and made his major league debut with that club. His playing career was quite modest, as he got into just 14 big league games with the Cards, 13 in 1966 and one more the following year. He made 14 plate appearances, walking once and striking out six times. His three singles in 13 at-bats gave him a batting average of .231.
He was traded to the Reds after the 1967 season and selected by the Expos in the 1968 expansion draft, but he never made it back to the big leagues. Though his playing career was limited, he managed to have brushes with greatness. His first appearance was against Sandy Koufax and his first hit came off Juan Marichal, both of whom eventually became Hall of Famers.
He transitioned to coaching and managing in the ’70s, starting in the Angels’ farm system. He got to the big leagues as the third base coach of the Blue Jays in 1980. He was promoted to the manager’s chair in 1986, with Bobby Cox vacating the role and heading to Atlanta. The Jays posted a winning record the next three seasons though didn’t make the postseason. Toronto fans of a certain vintage will remember that the 1987 club had a 3.5-game lead over the Tigers before losing their final seven contests for a heartbreaking second-place finish despite winning 96 games on the year. In 1989, the Jays got out to a slow start and Williams was fired in May, replaced by Cito Gaston.
Williams’ next gig was with Atlanta, reuniting him with Cox. Williams served as the third base coach in Atlanta from 1991 to 1996. The 1994 season wasn’t finished because of that year’s strike, but Atlanta won the National League East in every other season during that stretch, winning the World Series in 1995.
He got another managerial gig in 1997, getting hired by the Red Sox. They finished in fourth in the American League East in the first of his seasons in Boston but then got up to second place and earned the American League Wild Card spot in both 1998 and 1999. Williams won American League Manager of the Year honors in the latter of those two seasons, but the Sox didn’t make it back to the postseason in 2000 and then Williams was fired in August of 2001.
A few months later, Williams was hired to manage the Astros. They finished with winning records but shy of the postseason in 2002 and 2003, before Williams was fired midway through the 2004 campaign. That would be his last managerial gig, but he was hired to be the Phillies’ bench coach going into the 2007 season. The Phils won the National League East that year but lost to the Rockies in the NLDS. The next year, they won the division again and eventually won the 2008 World Series, a second ring for Williams as a coach. He decided not to return to the club the following year, finishing his career on a high note.
Over his career, Williams managed parts of 12 seasons with a combined record of 910-790, a .535 winning percentage. His two sons, Brady Williams and Shawn Williams, went on to become professional baseball players and minor league managers/coaches. We at MLB Trade Rumors join the rest of the baseball world in sending our condolences to the Williams family as well as Jimy’s many friends, acquaintances and fans throughout the game.
Cardinals Claim Alfonso Rivas, Designate Moises Gomez For Assignment
The Cardinals announced Monday that they’ve claimed first baseman/outfielder Alfonso Rivas off waivers from the Angels. In a corresponding move, outfielder Moises Gomez was designated for assignment.
Rivas has seen MLB time in each of the past three seasons, splitting those years between the Cubs, Padres and Pirates. The 27-year-old hit well in a tiny sample of 49 plate appearances during his 2021 MLB debut with the Cubs but carries a more tepid .233/.316/.342 slash in 410 trips to the plate over the two previous seasons.
That said, Rivas has a minor league option remaining and an excellent track record at the game’s top minor league level. He’s a career .313/.424/.492 hitter in parts of four Triple-A seasons and has drawn a walk in a massive 15.1% of his plate appearances there. He’s more of a gap hitter than true power bat, evidenced by his 40 doubles and 15 long balls in 637 career plate appearances in Triple-A. He’s primarily been a first baseman in his career, but Rivas does have 342 innings in left field and 75 innings in right field between his time in the big leagues and minors combined. He’ll compete for a job as a left-handed bat off manager Oli Marmol’s bench this spring.
As for the 25-year-old Gomez, he looked to be on the cusp of slugging his way to the big leagues a couple years back but has been dogged by consistent contact issues and saw his numbers decline in Triple-A this year. In 2022, Gomez split the season between Double-A and Triple-A, belting 39 home runs while posting a massive .294/.371/.624 slash line. That power output was accompanied by a staggering 34.7% strikeout rate, however, and things only got worse in his second go-around at the Triple-A level. He still mashed 30 homers this past season but did so with a diminished .232/.293/.457 line and an only slightly improved 31.7% strikeout rate.
The right-handed-hitting Gomez still has two minor league options remaining and is clearly bursting with raw power, but scouting reports have long been down on his glove, speed and particularly his hit tool. FanGraphs and Baseball America both credited Gomez with 70-grade raw power (on the 20-80 scale) as recently as last offseason, but BA put a 40 on his hit tool while FanGraphs was even more bearish and pegged him at a 30.
A club looking for some right-handed pop to stash in the upper minors could well take a flier on the power, but Gomez will need to significantly scale back the strikeouts and/or improve defensively if he’s to carve out a big league role. The Cardinals have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.
Cardinals Sign Josh James To Minor League Deal
The Cardinals announced Friday that they’ve signed right-handed reliever Josh James to a minor league contract. The 30-year-old hasn’t pitched in the Majors for two seasons and was non-tendered by the Astros after undergoing season-ending surgery to repair his right flexor tendon in 2022. He’s represented by CAA.
Prior to that injury, James spent parts of four seasons in the Houston ‘pen as a hard-throwing but command-challenged middle reliever who could miss bats in droves. He’s pitched 106 1/3 innings in the majors and carries a 4.64 ERA with a huge 34.3% strikeout rate but an ugly 13.2% walk rate. James averaged 97.1 mph on his heater from 2018-20 but saw that mark tumble to 94.8 mph in 2021. Injuries limited him to just 25 2/3 innings between Triple-A and the big leagues in ’21, and he managed only 27 2/3 frames in the minors the following year before requiring surgery.
Between his injuries and his history of command troubles, James is a project for the Cardinals and little more than a roll of the dice at this point. If he can get back to full strength and back on track in the upper minors, he could eventually be called up when injuries and/or poor performance create an opening in manager Oli Marmol’s relief corps.
As it stands, however, the St. Louis bullpen figures to include Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge, Andre Pallante and Zack Thompson, with a handful of candidates for the final two spots (John King, Nick Robertson, Riley O’Brien, Rule 5 pick Ryan Fernandez and non-roster invitee Wilking Rodriguez among them).
Cardinals, Tommy Edman Avoid Arbitration With Two-Year Deal
7:40pm: Edman is guaranteed $16.5MM, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link).
3:30pm: The Cardinals and utility player Tommy Edman have avoided arbitration by signing a two-year deal, per a club announcement. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported on the agreement prior to the club making it official. The financials of the deal have not yet been publicly reported. Edman was one of 22 players who didn’t agree to a salary before the filing deadline, though he’s now the third of that group to subsequently ink a new pact, joining Cionel Pérez of the Orioles and Casey Mize of the Tigers.
Edman, 29 in May, first qualified for arbitration a year ago and made $4.2MM in 2023. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to $6.5MM this year. As mentioned, he and the club didn’t agree on a new salary by the filing deadline, with Edman filing at $6.95MM and the club at $6.5MM. They would have been slated for a hearing in the weeks to come but have instead agreed to a deal that will cover his 2024 and 2025 seasons, buying out his final two arb years. Edman will be slated for free agency after this deal runs its course.
Like many clubs, the Cards are a “file-and-trial” team, meaning they choose not to continue negotiations on one-year deals after the filing deadline even though such talks are allowed. Last week, Edman said he hadn’t yet heard anything about a multi-year deal but expected talks to occur before the hearing. It appears those talks did end up taking place and were fruitful enough to avoid a hearing, as well preventing Edman from having to worry about arbitration at all next winter.
Over his career, Edman has moved all over the diamond, having played all three outfield positions and the three infield spots to the left of first base, receiving strong grades for his glovework wherever he goes. He has hit .265/.319/.408 in his career, leading to a 99 wRC+, which indicates he’s been a hair below league average. He has stolen 106 bases in 123 tries. FanGraphs considers him to have provided 15.3 wins above replacement in 596 career games.
In 2024, it’s expected that he will be the center fielder on a regular basis, with Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker likely to be flanking him most of the time. However, Edman also spent significant time at shortstop last year. The club is hoping Masyn Winn will take over the shortstop job going forward, but he’s not yet 22 years old and hit .172/.230/.238 in his first 137 major league plate appearances. It’s also possible an injury will create the need for Edman to move somewhere else, with Nootbaar or Dylan Carlson perhaps taking over in center.
Edman underwent arthroscopic wrist surgery in October and it still rehabbing from that procedure. As of last week, he hadn’t yet been cleared to make contact when swinging a bat but was “very confident” that he would be ready for the start of the season.
Cardinals Sign Matt Carpenter To One-Year Deal
The Cardinals announced that they have signed Matt Carpenter to a one-year deal. He was already under contract for 2024 but was released by Atlanta last month, meaning the Cards will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what Atlanta pays. The Cards now have a full 40-man roster.
Carpenter, now 38, returns to the organization where he spent the majority of his career and had his best years. Drafted by the Cardinals in 2009, he was with the big league club from 2011 to 2021. He played in 1,329 games in that time, hitting 155 home runs while slashing .262/.368/.449 for a wRC+ of 125. He made three All-Star teams in that time and won a Silver Slugger award.
His production tailed off in the final three of those seasons, including a batting line of just .169/.305/.275 in 2021. The Cards declined a $18.5MM club option for 2022, taking the $2MM buyout instead. As a free agent, he made a concerted effort to revamp his swing but still had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers that winter. He reported to their Triple-A club and showcased his new swing with tremendous success, slashing .275/.379/.613 in 21 games there.
Despite that excellent showing, the Rangers released him and Carpenter was able to secure a big league deal with the Yankees. For a short amount of time, he was arguably the hottest hitter on the planet. In 47 games in pinstripes, he hit 15 home runs and produced a monster line of .305/.412/.727. Unfortunately, that dazzling display was cut short when he fouled a ball off his foot and suffered a fracture in early August.
The Padres decided to bank on that brief burst, giving Carpenter a two-year, $12MM deal going into 2023, with an opt-out after the first season. But he crashed back down to earth in a big way, hitting .176/.322/.319 last year. He clearly fell out of favor with manager Bob Melvin, getting only 30 plate appearances from late July until the end of the season. Carpenter made the easy decision to lock in $5.5MM for 2024 by exercising his player option.
Though he declined a chance to return to the open market, he would find himself back there anyway. The Padres traded him to Atlanta along with left-hander Ray Kerr, with minor league outfielder Drew Campbell going to the Padres. Atlanta tried to trade Carpenter again but gave up and released him three days later, clearly demonstrating that they only took on his contract as a means of getting Kerr.
The Cardinals will be hoping that Carpenter has another bounceback in him, presumably inserting him into their designated hitter/pinch hitter/bench bat mix. Carpenter played some third base and the outfield corners as recently as 2022 with the Yankees but was mostly a DH with the Padres last year, with 81 innings at first base his only time in the field.
The Cards don’t have a strict DH on the roster, with nine different players having received 27 or more plate appearances in that slot last year. They could opt for a similar approach in 2024. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will have the infield corners spoken for, with Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman perhaps up the middle. Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker are the likely starting outfielders while Dylan Carlson could be the fourth outfielder. Brendan Donovan figures to be in a super utility role until an injury opens up a clear path to playing time.
But there are also elements of uncertainty in that group. Goldschmidt is going into his age-36 season and will turn 37 towards the tail end. Winn isn’t a lock to hold down shortstop after he struggled in his first taste of MLB pitching, which could perhaps move Edman there. But Edman himself underwent offseason wrist surgery and is still recovering. Donovan had flexor tendon surgery late last year. Walker is a former infielder who is still considered to be a poor defender in an outfield corner.
There are many moving pieces and it’s possible that things open up in a way that leaves room for Carpenter to get back on track this year. There are at least some similarities here to the situation with Albert Pujols. He also spent his best years in St. Louis before wandering to other clubs and struggling, but he came back to the Cards in 2022 and had arguably his best performance in over a decade. Carpenter’s overall career doesn’t compare to Pujols and he’s also had some more recent signs of success, but it’s an interesting parallel nonetheless.
Ultimately, it’s a low-risk move for the Cards since Carp is essentially free and isn’t guaranteed any playing time. If his performance is similar to his 2023 work with the Padres, he can simply be released, with Atlanta remaining on the hook for his salary.
Perhaps the person with the most to lose with today’s news is Alec Burleson. He was lined up to be a lefty-swinging bench bat for the club but might now get pushed to the farm, since he still has a full slate of options. He has hit well in the minors but has slashed just .237/.295/.375 in his major league career thus far. Perhaps he will find himself taking regular at-bats in Triple-A, depending on the health and performance of the aforementioned names on the roster.
For Cardinal fans, it could be another year of nostalgia storylines involving some long-tenured players. In 2022, Pujols returned to the club for a farewell tour, with both himself and Yadier Molina retiring after that campaign. Last year, Adam Wainwright‘s attempts to secure his 200th career win before walking away from the game took center stage as the club fell out of contention.