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Rays Considering Dealing Starting Pitchers

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The expectation is that this summer’s trade market will be largely devoid of quality starting pitchers, but last-place Tampa Bay could change that. The Rays, who are 33-47 and 10 games out of a Wild Card position, are discussing putting some of their young starters on the block well in advance of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links). One member of the group unlikely to go anywhere is underachieving right-hander Chris Archer, whose team-friendly contract might be too difficult for the Rays to part with, per Rosenthal.

With Archer probably staying in a Rays uniform and top prospect Blake Snell seemingly a poor bet to go anywhere, that leaves Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore as rotation members Tampa Bay could shop. Each is likely attainable if the right offer comes along, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reported Saturday afternoon.

Odorizzi, who has backed up a respectable ERA (3.91) with solid strikeout and walk ratios per nine innings (8.59 and 2.96, respectively) across 94 1/3 frames this year, has already drawn interest from the Marlins. In 468 2/3 big league innings dating back to 2012, Odorizzi has held his own – 3.80 ERA, 8.45 K/9, 2.84 BB/9 and a 10 percent infield fly rate – though his 34.5 percent grounder rate (39.2 percent this year) is well below average. The 26-year-old right-hander is playing this season on an ultra-cheap $520,700 salary and has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining.

Smyly, 27, has run up a sky-high strikeout rate for the second straight year (10.09), improved his walk rate from 2.7 to 2.24, and continued generating a large amount of infield pop-ups (13.5 percent). Nonetheless, the southpaw’s run prevention has taken a significant hit. Through his first 96 1/3 innings this season, Smyly has recorded a 5.33 ERA – which is more than two runs worse than the excellent 3.11 mark he put in 66 2/3 frames last year.

Notably, Smyly missed a large portion of 2015 with a torn labrum and opted against season-ending surgery in favor of rehabilitation through rest, which proved successful then. However, research done for MLBTR during the offseason by Bradley Woodrum and Tim Dierkes showed that Smyly remains at relatively high risk of eventually needing Tommy John surgery. That could hurt his value, then, even though he logged a 3.45 ERA, 8.51 K/9 and 2.54 BB/9 in 55 starts with the Tigers and Rays from 2012-15 and is on a palatable salary ($3.75MM) with two more arbitration trips on the docket.

Moore has mimicked Smyly in having trouble preventing runs (4.67 ERA ) despite amassing strikeouts (8.61 per nine) and limiting walks (2.62), though he’s coming off a terrific June in which he threw 38 2/3 frames of 3.72 ERA ball. The former top prospect was an eminently useful starter from 2012-13 before injury issues – including April 2014 Tommy John surgery – kept him sidelined for the vast majority of the previous two campaigns. Moore, who’s making $5MM this year, has three affordable club options of $7MM, $9MM and $10MM left on his deal before he’ll become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. The Rangers are reportedly among the teams interested in acquiring the 27-year-old.

Given the youth and team control Odorizzi, Smyly and Moore offer, their presences on the block could hugely impact the trade deadline. Several playoff contenders (other than the aforementioned Marlins and Rangers) are likely to be on the hunt for starters, which should put each member of the trio in demand.

East Notes: Arroyo, Venters, Kelly

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Veteran starter Bronson Arroyo made his second rehab start with the Nationals’ Gulf Coast League affiliate today, allowing no earned runs and two walks while striking out three over five innings. The 39-year-old is making his way back from partial rotator cuff tendon tears, and he still hopes to return to the big leagues in 2016, as MLB.com’s Bill Ladson tweets. It would be quite a comeback for the vet, who hasn’t appeared in the Majors since pitching 86 innings with the Diamondbacks in 2014. Here’s more from the East divisions.

  • The Rays have announced that reliever Jonny Venters has a “left UCL injury,” and the injury is in fact a UCL tear, the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin writes (Twitter links). Venters briefly appeared in a rehab assignment in Class A+ this season. It’s been a brutal series of events for the lefty, who was attempting to come back after having Tommy John surgery for the third time. He is unsure whether to retire or continue to try to return to the Majors. Venters hasn’t appeared in the bigs since 2012, when he whiffed 69 batters in 58 2/3 innings for the Braves. Venters’ career stat line — 2.23 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and a ridiculous 68.4% ground-ball rate — is borderline dominant, but he can’t seem to make his way back to the mound.
  • The Red Sox have moved hard-throwing righty Joe Kelly to the bullpen, Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com writes. “Power arm,” says manager John Farrell. “[T]his will be the first time that we’ve shifted him to that role here. This is for multiple reasons — for the time it would take to stretch him back out, potential of shorter stints, the stuff playing up, possibly more productive.” Kelly is currently returning from a groin injury and has not pitched since early June. He’s struggled badly in six big-league starts this season. Farrell believes Kelly can make it back to the bigs just after the All-Star break. As Hannable implies, Kelly’s move to the bullpen reinforces the likelihood that the Red Sox will look for starting pitching help later this month.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/1/16

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Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…

  • Rays outfielder Jaff Decker cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, via Twitter. Decker struggled badly in a limited sample this year at the major league level. He has been quite a productive Triple-A hitter, though, and is still just 26 years ofa ge.
  • Outfielder Alex Presley has rejected an outright assignment with the Brewers, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports on Twitter. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo had tweeted that Presley cleared waivers. Presley heads back onto the open market after a disappointing run with Milwaukee. The 30-year-old still draws interest, and generally does plenty of damage in the highest level of the minors, but just hasn’t ever gained traction in the majors.
  • The Blue Jays have released righty Chad Jenkins, per a tweet from Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. The 20th overall pick in the 2009 draft, Jenkins has just topped one hundred frames at the major league level and does own a 3.31 career ERA. Clearly, though, the organization never felt that Jenkins warranted a more extended chance. Through 29 2/3 Triple-A innings this year, Jenkins had struggled to a 5.16 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and an uncharacteristic 5.2 BB/9.
  • Heading to the White Sox on a minor league deal is infielder Danny Muno, per Cotillo (via Twitter). Muno, 27, has had little more than a cup of coffee in the majors. He was cut loose by the Mets after posting a .239/.391/.318 slash over his first 110 plate appearances of the year at the Triple-A level.

Earlier Updates

  • The White Sox have inked center fielder Tony Campana to a minor league contract, per the team’s transactions page at MLB.com. Campana, who’s already played one game with his new organization, was recently released by the Nationals after opening the season with their Triple-A affiliate. The 30-year-old struggled at the plate this season, hitting .220/.294/.236 in 144 plate appearances after missing nearly all of the 2015 season due to a torn ligament in his knee sustained in Spring Training 2015 (with the White Sox). Campana’s 2016 struggles aren’t representative of his track record, of course. The fleet-footed veteran has a lifetime .282/.343/.347 slash line in parts of five Triple-A seasons even including this year’s line, and he’s also logged parts of four seasons in the Majors, where he’s compiled a .249/.296/.288 line between the Cubs, Angels and D-backs. Speed has traditionally been Campana’s calling card; he’s gone 66-for-75 in stolen base attempts over the life of 257 big league games and 216-for-286 in his minor league career.

Jay Bruce Willing To Waive No-Trade Clause In Deal To Contender

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Reds outfielder Jay Bruce has a limited no-trade clause, but doesn’t intend to use that to hold up a deal to a contending club this summer, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. Bruce sits at the top overall spot on MLBTR’s most recent top trade candidates list.

The NTC would let Bruce reject deals to the Yankees, Red Sox, Athletics, Rays, Marlins, Twins, Indians and Diamondbacks. Jon Heyman of todaysknuckleball.com repored earlier today that Bruce would quite likely be willing to go to Cleveland, and it appears that he’d also be amenable to other hypothetical landing spots. Rumblings have connected Bruce to a variety of clubs, including the Dodgers, Giants, White Sox, and Royals since the start of the season.

Bruce, 29, tells Sheldon that he’s willing to “consider waiving the no-trade clause for all types of reasons,” with “no blanket reason I wouldn’t.” The veteran said he’d need to take each situation as it comes, with agent Matt Sosnick saying that such a choice has yet to be brought to their attention.

Bruce continued on to emphasize that he’d be quite interested in an opportunity to join an organization that has designs on contending. “If I am moved, which has seemed likely for the last year and a half, I’d like to go where the team is mostly likely to win,” he said. “Teams that want me are likely seeking somebody to help them win.”

Notably, Sosnick suggested that Bruce won’t necessarily be looking to utilize the clause for leverage with regard to his contract. “We’re not setting in stone any financial qualifiers,” he said. “If the deal is good for Jay and good for the Reds, he would consider anything — including waiving the no-trade. … There is no team that he would unequivocally not go to.”

Bruce has increasingly cemented his status as a premium trade piece, as he is once again hitting like the All-Star-caliber player he was from 2011 through 2013. The two intervening seasons are easier and easier to forget, as he carries a .279/.325/.568 slash with 17 home runs and a league-leading six triples into July. Bruce’s early-career extension is another asset: he’s earning $12.5MM this year and can be controlled for $13MM in 2017, which is particularly appealing with a dearth of young sluggers on the upcoming free agent market.

Matt Moore Drawing Trade Interest; Rangers Among Possible Suitors

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We’ve heard recently that the Rays could be willing to deal lefty Matt Moore, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the interest is building. The Rangers are “hot on Moore’s trail,” per the report, with three or four other rival organizations also showing signs of pursuit.

Moore struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, and his current 2016 ERA of 5.04 isn’t exactly sparkling. But as Topkin details, the 27-year-old southpaw has shown signs of returning to being the type of quality starter he was before his new UCL was installed.

Thus far, Moore has boosted his strikeout rate (8.5 K/9) and lowered his walk rate (2.6 BB/9) as against his work last year. That reflects a return to his pre-TJ, double-digit swinging strike rate along with a reduction of his once-troubling tendency to issue free passes. Moore’s fastball velocity has moved back north, even if it’s still shy of what he once delivered.

Moore carried a 3.66 ERA into the month of May, then was banged up in his next seven starts. But he’s had only one dud in his last four outings, and that seems to have helped to fuel new interest. The biggest issue thus far has been the long ball, as Moore is coughing up 1.61 dingers per nine on a 15.0% HR/FB rate.

Performance is obviously hugely important in assessing Moore’s trade value, but the underlying contract rights are also critical. While much of the super-cheap portion of his early-career extension is already in the rearview mirror, he is still owed just $5MM this year and can be controlled for three more campaigns through a series of options. If all are exercised, he’d earn only $26MM over the three seasons to come, with $4.25MM in buyouts baked in if things turn south.

It remains to be seen what approach Tampa Bay takes at the deadline, but the club already looked like a plausible seller of starting pitching before it fell off the pace in the AL East. The Rays could have a bit of a rotation surplus, particularly once Alex Cobb comes back from his own TJ procedure, and a seller’s market beckons.

The club’s decision as to which, if any, starter to deal will be an interesting storyline to follow over the next month. Cobb has been the subject of trade chatter in the past. Jake Odorizzi looks like another quality, controllable arm that could draw a strong return; indeed, he placed eighth on the most recent list of MLBTR’s top trade candidates. And some have wondered whether even staff ace Chris Archer could be moved, though he is well off of his typical run-prevention numbers.

International Notes: July 2 Preview, Maitan, Braves, Padres

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Baseball America’s Ben Badler has compiled scouting reports on the Top 50 prospects on the upcoming July 2 international market, in addition to providing projected landing spots for each player on the list. The exhaustive report on the international scene requires a BA subscription, but it’s highly recommended for those who wish to dive headfirst into learning about the upcoming glut of talent that will be injected into most clubs’ minor league pipelines. Those looking to learn more about the process can also check out this primer from Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, who also provides a ranking of the class (with further explanation here).

Here are just a few highlights from Badler’s excellent work on the topic, which deserves a full read:

  • Badler takes a particularly close look at top prospect Kevin Maitan, who he says may be a better prospect than Miguel Sano was as a teenager. The link comes with a lengthy and detailed scouting report, including discussion of the question whether Maitain will be able to stay at shortstop for the long run. Scouts are divided on the likelihood, but all seem to agree it’s at least a plausible outcome.
  • Maitan has long been said to be heading for the Braves, and we’ve yet to hear anything to change that expectation. Atlanta has lined up a big batch of spending, but Badler provides a bit of context for just how large: he says it “should look comparable to what the Yankees did in 2014-15.” (You can refresh yourself on New York’s shock and awe campaign here.)
  • The Padres appear headed in that direction, too, as Badler says that a $30MM to $35MM spend might be their floor. In addition to big activity on the Cuban market, San Diego is in line to add eight of the top fifty available players. As for the Nationals, who are also believed to be pacing the market in spending, it might not be quite that dramatic. But Washington could still come away with three of the fifteen best prospecs on the market.
  •  The Astros, too, seem ready to drop some big cash — including a $3.5MM bonus for Cuban shortstop Anibal Sierra. Houston is eyeing five of the top fifty names on Badler’s list, he notes. One player that could be ticketed for the ’Stros is fifth overall prospect Freudis Nova.
  • Nova had been connected to the Marlins before failing a PED test. Now, Badler explains, Miami has a big chunk of pool availability and little in the way of commitments. The club could deal that away or see if it can find a nice price on the Cuban market.
  • It also remains to be seen what the Reds will do, but Badler explains that things could go in either of two directions. Cinci could trade for some added bonus pool space to add Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez and a few smaller signings without hitting the penalty. Or, the team could enter the broader Cuban market and blow past its limits.
  • The White Sox are expected to land slugging prospect Josue Guerrero — who, yes, is a part of the famous family. Despite being quiet in recent years, the Athletics are in position to add some talent, including George Bell, whose father (same name) was a quality big leaguer.
  • The Brewers aren’t believed to have any seven-figure bonuses lined up, but could still add a high number of interesting players with the fifth-highest spending availability in the game. Likewise, the Phillies are expected to spread their cash.
  • Of course, not every team will have the opportunity to spend lavishly this period; the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Royals and Blue Jays are each prohibited from spending more than $300K on international amateurs after incurring maximum penalties, though that doesn’t mean those organizations don’t have a chance to find some talent.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Gurriel, Erasmo, D-Backs, Royals, Lohse, Taylor

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In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports looks at the developing market for Cuban star Yulieski Gurriel. Discussing his team’s reported interest, Giants GM Bobby Evans tells Rosenthal that he is primarily looking to “be as thorough as we can when it comes to international talent,” not angling to replace a starter in the infield. In Rosenthal’s opinion, Gurriel fits best with the Mets, who could use him at third this year and then utilize him there or at second in the seasons beyond, depending upon how things shake out. Needless to say, Gurriel figures to be a fascinating player to watch over the coming weeks.

Here are some more highlights from the post:

  • The Dodgers have engaged the Rays in talks regarding righty Erasmo Ramirez, according to Rosenthal. Though he’s working out of the pen for Tampa Bay, the Dodgers would intend to utilize Ramirez in the rotation — at least initially. He has spent most of his career as a starter, and presumably would offer the club a swingman/long-relief option down the line. With several youthful and recently-injured starters in the picture in L.A., it’s not hard to see the match.
  • Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart says that the organization is getting trade interest in both Brad Ziegler and Daniel Hudson, with some teams even asking about landing both arms. However, Arizona is not yet ready to concede the 2016 campaign, particularly after improved play of late. Stewart also suggested again that the club would rather extend both of the late-inning righties, each of whom is a pending free agent, rather than shipping them out.
  • Despite their position-player gaps — most of which are being filled with surprising aplomb by unheralded players — the Royals’ biggest need is starting pitching, Rosenthal argues. GM Dayton Moore says that the club is “not overly concerned” about third base or right field, which are currently manned by Cheslor Cuthbert and Paulo Orlando. “If we had to make a decision today, we’d probably go with what we’ve got,” he said. But the architect of the reigning World Series champs also noted that the starting pitching market isn’t showing the same kind of top-quality veterans that it did last year, making it a “challenge” to find a real upgrade for the staff.
  • Speaking of that thin market, Rosenthal says that teams are not unaware of the fact that Kyle Lohse can still opt out of his his deal with the Rangers after recently being bypassed for a promotion. Though the veteran owns only a 5.23 ERA in 51 2/3 Triple-A innings on the year, he is sitting at a typical 6.1 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 and obviously comes with a lengthy track record of quality major league pitching. (Note: it’s unclear precisely what opt-out situation Lohse has; the deal included a June 1 date that has obviously already passed, but may allow him to force the Rangers’ hand if another team offers a big league opportunity.)
  • Rosenthal says that the Nationals have previously discussed center fielder Michael Taylor in trade talks and suggests they could do so again this summer in search of a top relief arm. Taylor would certainly make for an interesting piece to dangle: he still possesses tantalizing tools despite his difficulties in harnessing the strike zone and only just turned 25.

Rays To Designate Jaff Decker For Assignment, Activate Brandon Guyer

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The Rays will designate outfielder Jaff Decker for assignment and activate fellow outfielder Brandon Guyer from the 15-day disabled list, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter).

Decker, 26, was brought up from Triple-A earlier this season due largely to a deluge of injuries incurred by Rays outfielders — Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza and Mikie Mahtook were all on the disabled list alongside Guyer — and received 32 plate appearances with Tampa Bay. The former No. 42 overall pick (Padres, 2008) batted .138/.219/.138 in that brief sample. Decker has been a considerably better performer than that at the Triple-A level, where he owns a .264/.365/.396 batting line in 1321 plate appearances. That production has never carried over to the Majors, though, where Decker is a career .159/.267/.227 batter in 104 trips to the dish.

The flailing Rays should be quite pleased to get Guyer back into their lineup, as the 30-year-old was in the midst of a career year before landing on the DL earlier this month with a hamstring strain. In 168 PAs this season, Guyer is batting .271/.365/.472 with six homers and 11 doubles.

Injury Notes: Kershaw, Strasburg, Colome, Floyd, Morneau, Rangers

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Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw is heading back to Los Angeles to meet with a specialist (Dr. Robert Watkins) about his ailing back, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes. Kershaw experienced some soreness in his back following Sunday’s loss, and manager Dave Roberts told the media that Kershaw’s lower back has been somewhat of an issue for the past few weeks. Roberts said the team is still optimistic that Kershaw will make his upcoming start on Friday, though that can’t be certain until he undergoes further examination. Kershaw is in the midst of arguably his best season ever, having recorded a 1.79 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 0.7 BB/9 and a 49.8 percent ground-ball rate through an MLB-best 121 innings thus far.

A few more injury items from around the league…

  • An MRI of Stephen Strasburg’s back revealed “nothing serious,” Nationals manager Dusty Baker told reporters, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link). While the Nats have yet to receive an official diagnosis on the injury, Baker said the initial results have made the organization feel better about the injury that landed Strasburg on the 15-day disabled list this weekend. There’s no word on exactly how long Strasburg will be out, but the lack of a serious injury suggests that it could be a fairly brief stay on the DL.
  • The Rays have placed closer Alex Colome on the 15-day disabled list with what has been diagnosed as medial right biceps tendinitis, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. That’s the second closer on the disabled list for Tampa Bay, though Colome’s absence from team looks like it will be considerably shorter than that of fellow closer Brad Boxberger. Topkin writes that Colome’s DL stint is retroactive to June 19, and the right-hander is hoping to return to action as soon as he is eligible on Monday of next week.
  • Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports that the Blue Jays will be without right-hander Gavin Floyd for a prolonged period of time, as Floyd has been diagnosed with a tear in his right lat muscle (Twitter link). Floyd hasn’t been dominant for the Jays this season, but he’s turned in 31 innings of 4.06 ERA ball and averaged 8.7 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 with a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate out of the Toronto bullpen. The extent of the tear and the projected length of his absence are not yet known.
  • Justin Morneau feels that he can be ready to join the White Sox after about 30 at-bats on a minor league rehab assignment, he tells Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago (Twitter link). Levine estimates that Morneau will be ready to join the big league roster around July 15. Morneau tells the St. Paul Pioneer Press’ Mike Berardino (Twitter link) that he’s hoping to begin a rehab assignment next week and be in uniform with the Sox soon after the All-Star break. Chicago signed Morneau to a one-year contract earlier this month.
  • Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News provides updates on several injured Rangers. Per Grant, Yu Darvish will face hitters in a simulated game tomorrow, as will right-hander Keone Kela, who has missed the majority of the season after undergoing surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow earlier this year. Beyond that, Grant adds that Derek Holland isn’t traveling with the team on this road trip and isn’t likely to pitch before the All-Star break. Kela is a bit over two months into his projected three-month recovery timeline, and his eventual return could be a boon for a Rangers bullpen that has seen its share of struggles in 2016.

AL East Notes: Judge, Silverman, Rays, Red Sox

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Yankees GM Brian Cashman suggested that outfielder Aaron Judge is not on the cusp of a promotion despite his recent hot streak, as ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand reports. As Jason Martinez of MLBTR/MLBDepthCharts wrote just yesterday, Judge has improved both his plate discipline and his power of late. While Cashman said that the young slugger has been impressive at Triple-A, he left Marchand with the impression that Judge’s time has yet to come.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • Rays GM Matthew Silverman says that he’s not yet ready to throw in the towel this year despite sitting 13 games out of the AL East lead, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. The executive did note that he is “very dissatisfied” with the club’s performance thus far, however, and certainly did not rule out a sell-off over the coming weeks. “There’s going to be time to cross that bridge when we come to it,” he said. “Right now, there’s a lot of baseball to be played between now and the deadline. There’s a lot of grit in this clubhouse. We’re going to support that club and see if we can turn this thing around.” A run of success can always change perceptions in relatively short order, but the trouble for Tampa Bay is that it needs to climb over four other teams — all of which could well be willing and able to add pieces at the deadline.
  • If and when the Rays do move assets, it’s likely they won’t send them to any of the four other teams in the division, Silverman tells Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Tampa Bay’s top baseball decisionmaker acknowledged that he has at least some bias against intra-division swaps. “Personally, we’d prefer not to,” he said. “It’s a lot less fun to have to sit there and watch a player 19 times a year, but at the same time, we can’t cut off all avenues. We have to be open, but if the return is about the same, I would give the nod away from the division.”
  • The Red Sox have an increasing number of holes to address, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. With varying degrees of need in the rotation and pen, out in left field and behind the plate, Boston faces a complicated deadline. Speier notes that the Craig Kimbrel deal cost the club several very useful pieces of trade bait, leaving the organization with a tough call on how willing it is to deal from its group of highly-touted top prospects.
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