Rays Have Made Extension Offer To Jake Odorizzi
The Rays have offered right-hander Jake Odorizzi a contract extension, agent Jason Wood confirms to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links 1, 2, 3, 4). Topkin notes that the timing of the offer is interesting, because Odorizzi could also be part of trade talks with the Cubs as the Rays search for a hitter. (Presumably, if a contract is agreed to between the two sides, Odorizzi would want assurance that he won’t immediately be traded.)
Wood called Tampa Bay’s offer a “very nice initial offer,” says Topkin, adding that the agent said there are “lots of reasons” to continue the dialogue. Wood says there’s mutual interest and is working on a counter-offer for the Rays, whose initial offer is believed to include multiple option years, per Topkin. That’s been standard operating procedure for the Rays over the years, who locked up Evan Longoria, Matt Moore and Chris Archer to contracts that each include at least two option seasons early in each player’s career (albeit, earlier in their respective careers than Odorizzi is at present).
Odorizzi, 26 in March, has pitched well for the Rays in each of the past two seasons, though he missed some time in 2015 due to an oblique strain and was thus limited to 169 1/3 innings. Odorizzi doesn’t throw particularly hard, averaging about 91 mph with his fastball, but he’s shown an ability to pick up strikeouts at an above-average clip nonetheless. Over his past 337 1/3 innings (2014-15), Odorizzi has a 3.74 ERA with 8.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. A pronounced fly-ball pitcher, Odorizzi does have a rather low 33.5 percent ground-ball rate in that time.
Originally acquired from the Royals in the James Shields/Wil Myers trade (though I submit that the trade should be referred to as the Wade Davis/Jake Odorizzi swap, personally), Odorizzi is not yet arbitration eligible and won’t be until next offseason. He’s controllable for another four years, so it stands to reason that the Rays would like to secure a pair of free agent years (if not more) in exchange for committing to him at this juncture.
Assuming he maintains his current trajectory, Odorizzi’s arbitration seasons could command as much as $20-25MM. And, as the free-agent market is beginning to show, the going rate for second- and even third starters is escalating closer to $20MM than ever before. Clearly, the Rays wouldn’t be interested in guaranteeing full market value this far in advance (no team would), so Wood and Odorizzi would have to make some form of concessions — probably in the overall cost the arbitration years and in the annual value of the free-agent seasons.
Were Odorizzi to agree to a long-term contract, his new deal would somewhat reset the market for pitchers in his service class. The only extension for a starting pitcher with between two and three years of service time in recent seasons was Corey Kluber‘s five-year, $38.5MM deal last winter, but Kluber was noticeably older than Odorizzi and also coming off a Cy Young campaign, making his situation rather unique. Previous deals for pitchers in this service class (e.g. Yovani Gallardo, Derek Holland) were in the five-year, $30MM range, but those contracts are five years old now. Gio Gonazalez’s five-year, $42MM deal from 2012 somewhat surprisingly stands as the record for starters with between two and three years of service. It seems unlikely that the Rays would be keen on shelling out any sort of record deal for this service class, especially considering that one of the years in question is a pre-arbitration year (Gonzalez had Super Two status working in his favor).
A four-year pact with an option would lock in Odorizzi’s arbitration seasons and give the Rays an extra year of club control in exchange for delaying free agency by one season. That deal would still allow Odorizzi to hit the open market entering his age-31 season, though Tampa Bay typically seems to strive for multiple option years in these days.
Rangers Interested In Joe Kelly, Drew Smyly
The Rangers have spoken to the Red Sox about right-hander Joe Kelly, reports MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (via Twitter), who adds that Rays lefty Drew Smyly is another potential target for the Rangers. Meanwhile, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo tweets that the Rangers are “very interested” in Kelly. Rob Bradford of WEEI spoke with Kelly himself, who acknowledged the possibility that he could be moved due to Boston’s rotation surplus.
Kelly, 27, struggled tremendously in his first 14 starts with Boston, logging a 5.67 ERA that prompted a demotion to the minors. Upon returning, Kelly pitched to a much-improved 3.77 ERA with a 50-to-18 K/BB ratio in 11 starts, including an impressive 2.35 mark across his final eight outings of the season. Kelly also averaged 95.4 mph on his fastball, ranking him among the game’s hardest-throwing starters, and can be controlled for three more seasons via the arbitration process. If Texas, or any other club, believes that his end-of-season production is sustainable, he’s certainly an appealing trade chip. And, of course, many have long believed that Kelly could thrive in a bullpen role, which would be a nice fallback option for any team should he not pan out in the rotation.
The 26-year-old Smyly stands out as another reasonable rotation target for the Rangers. Like Kelly, he’s controllable through the 2018 season, though he’s coming off a season that was significantly shortened by a small labral tear in his left shoulder. Smyly threw just 66 1/3 innings for the Rays in 2015, although they were high in quality, as has come to be the expectation. Smyly logged a 3.11 ERA with 10.4 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 to go along with a 36.8 percent ground-ball rate. While the Rays have already moved one starter this winter in Nate Karns, reports have indicated over the past month that they’re open to moving another arm.
Central Notes: Indians, Reds, Chapman, Cubs, Tigers, Pelfrey, Cards, Pirates
Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells MLB Network Radio (audio link) that he’s chasing offensive upgrades, with interest in hitters from both sides of the plate. “I think it’s probably safe to say … that if you’re a corner bat or an outfielder, that we are investigating those options,” said Antonetti, who added that Cleveland is “definitely looking to improve our position player club.” The executive made clear in his comments that the team is open to adding multiple bats.
Here’s more from the central divisions:
- The Reds “have made everyone available,” Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets, including third baseman Todd Frazier. President of baseball operations Walt Jocketty indicated that would probably be the case back in November, as C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported at the time. “I don’t know if we’re in a position to say there’s any untouchables,” said Jocketty. With the Winter Meetings opening tomorrow, it seems that Cincinnati will be one of the major sellers to watch.
- While the Reds have fielded the most active recent interest from the Dodgers and the Astros in star southpaw Aroldis Chapman, per another Heyman tweet, Cincinnati and Houston have been “having [a] hard time matching up.” All indications are that the ‘Stros have been casting a wide net in their search for a top-notch reliever, possibly indicating a focus on achieving value, and it’s certainly possible to imagine that the team will be hesitant to cough up a major prospect haul after cashing in some significant assets at the trade deadline. Cincinnati will no doubt be looking to add near-MLB talent to plug onto a roster that has dealt with injury and performance issues in recent years, though MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports that the team has some encouraging news on the progress of shortstop Zack Cozart and catcher Devin Mesoraco.
- The Cubs have been chatting with the Rays about “some match ups,” tweets Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com, who notes that lefty reliever Jake McGee is “intriguing.” We have heard recently that Chicago could be looking to add a major arm via trade.
- Tigers GM Al Avila says his focus this week in Nashville will be on bolstering the pen, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets. Detroit might still look to make changes on the position player side of the equation, but that probably will not occur this week.
- The Tigers have already addressed their rotation, of course, after announcing the signing of Mike Pelfrey to go with the previously-inked Jordan Zimmermann. As Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports, Avila called the move a “scout signing” in that the team believes the big righty has shown the ability to produce solid results moving forward. “He’s a guy we were very comfortable with,” Avila explained “He’s a guy that’s a good bet for us that he can bounce back and build off last year. Our intent was to get a guy that can get us 30 starts, give us some innings, a veteran guy that has good clubhouse makeup.”
- Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. says that his club will “stretch again if we see the right opportunity” after putting in a big offer for lefty David Price, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. All told, Goold writes, the organization appears primed to have a major impact on the market even after missing on Price.
- Another team that chased Price, the Cubs, sought to woo him with a seven-year, $161MM offer, per Levine (via Twitter). That is believed to be the third-highest offer, behind the Cards and the ultimately successful Red Sox. Of course, Chicago ultimately went on to add John Lackey for two years and $32MM, a signing that drew strong praise from at least one rival GM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
- Meanwhile, the Pirates have a host of needs that remain open at this time, as Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Team president Frank Coonelly tells Sawchik that the organization anticipates a rise in payroll, and has “flexibility to add by free agency and/or trades.” He also made an interesting observation on the club’s range of possible actions, saying the 2016 ballclub “may include players who are available to us in part because we have made other moves.” That could be a reference to high-priced veterans Mark Melancon and Neil Walker, both of whom have emerged as trade candidates. It seems that Pittsburgh could be a major mover at the GM Meetings, one of the many topics that Zach Links and I covered in this week’s Winter Meetings preview on the MLBTR Podcast.
Saltalamacchia Had Interest From “6-7 Clubs”
Earlier tonight, the Tigers announced the signing of catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a one-year deal for the MLB minimum. Before he put pen to paper with Detroit, however, Salty’s camp was in talks with “six or seven clubs,” according to a baseball source who spoke with MLBTR. The backstop drew varying levels of interest from the White Sox, Royals, Rays, Orioles (prior to Matt Wieters accepting his QO), Phillies, Angels, and the incumbent D’Backs.
The Tigers have landed themselves a veteran who can be a reliable presence behind starter James McCann. Saltalamacchia also could get some opportunities as DH and first base as he moves back to the American League. The former first round pick looked strong in his 70 game run for the D’Backs in 2015 and he’ll attempt to build off of that with Detroit in the New Year.
AL East Notes: Yankees, Alvarez, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles
Yankees GM Brian Cashman is downplaying the team’s interest in free agents, writes George A. King III of the New York Post. The Yankees are shopping veterans Ivan Nova, Brett Gardner, and Andrew Miller, but talks have subsided for the moment. According to Cashman, “I think it’s more likely that we keep them than move them. I say that recognizing that if someone wants to ring a bell that I’ve put out there, that could happen.”
Here’s more from the AL East:
- The Yankees don’t have a spot for recently non-tendered slugger Pedro Alvarez, writes King. Before considering the roster, Alvarez sounds like a decent fit. As a youth, Alvarez attended school in the Bronx and played for the Bayside Bombers – an elite travel team based in the area. Yankee Stadium is also extremely friendly to left-handed power. However, the Yankees are swamped with designated hitters. Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, and prospect Greg Bird all overlap to some degree.
- New York could try to upgrade in the middle infield next week, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Rob Refsnyder and Dustin Ackley are expected to platoon at second base, but Cashman will continue to monitor the market for more reliable alternatives. Feinsand offers Howie Kendrick, Brandon Phillips, and Martin Prado as three players to watch. Kendrick is a free agent while Phillips and Prado would have to be acquired via trade.
- Owner John Henry says the Red Sox could add another starter, writes John Tomase of WEEI.com. Boston inked David Price to a record breaking contract earlier in the week. Per Henry, “I do think there is trade potential. We have a lot of pitching and we have a lot of talent. We’re not going to trade away our core young players, but we might be able to get a core young pitcher.” Henry did mention that the asking price for high quality pitchers is probably out of their range.
- The Rays also aren’t a fit for designated hitters Alvarez or Chris Carter, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa would have to make a trade to open playing time for them. The club is likely looking to trade pitching for young hitters like Jorge Soler or Javier Baez.
- The large contracts signed by Price and Zack Greinke could take the Orioles out of the market for Chris Davis, opines Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. Schmuck figures the floor for Davis is probably around $150MM – more than double the biggest free agent deal ever inked by the Orioles. The market for hitters has been much slower to establish itself, so there is still a change we’ll be surprised. For now, I agree Davis may wind up outside of Baltimore’s price range.
- The Orioles aren’t usually flashy participants at the Winter Meetings, but they do have a few needs to fill, write Eduardo A. Encina and Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Davis, the rotation, and the outfield are obvious concerns. The bullpen could be a challenge to buoy if Darren O’Day signs elsewhere. The Nationals and Orioles are considered front runners for his services. Baltimore likes to make Rule 5 picks under Dan Duquette. The club already has to roster Dylan Bundy who is out of options – possibly preventing them from keeping a pick.
Stark’s Latest: Cueto, Leake Miller, Indians, Rays
Here are the latest starting pitcher rumors in advance of the winter meetings, courtesy of ESPN’s Jayson Stark.
- Johnny Cueto is the top pitcher on the free agent market, but his earning potential remains unclear. Some insiders are surprised he turned down the six-year, $120MM offer previously extended by the Diamondbacks. As Stark points out, Cueto is sixth among active starters with a 3.30 ERA so he would seemingly justify a serious investment. However, concerns about his health and late-season struggles have executives worried. Per one source, “If you told me that, within 24 hours [of arriving at the meetings], all of the big free-agent starters would be signed except Cueto, I’d believe it.“
- Former Reds starter Mike Leake, 28, is in demand largely because he’s one of the youngest pitchers on the market. He has a history of durability, but that comes with league average production on the mound. However, Leake is also well-above average as a hitter, boosting his value to NL clubs. Stark expects a “stampede” in Leake’s direction during the Winter Meetings. One source believes Leake will be overpaid by an exuberant market.
- The Braves would jump on a Shelby Miller trade if they received the right controllable position player. To date, Atlanta has focused on particularly high value targets like Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, and Jorge Soler. As you might guess, few if any teams are eager to trade established, high quality young hitters for pitching. The Braves have shown no sign of backing down on their asking price.
- We’ve heard a lot about the Indians pitching depth – namely Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Stark and his sources think the club will stand pat this winter. “You’re just shifting around your problems,” said one contact in regard to a hypothetical pitcher-for-hitter swap. The team’s strength is built around their rotation. They may be best served by simply maximizing that advantage.
- With the exception of Chris Archer, the Rays are shopping all of their starting pitchers. That’s par for the course for the Rays who historically have been open to trading anybody to improve the long term outlook of the franchise. Stark specifically mentions Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore as available, but we can probably presume that Erasmo Ramirez is being floated too.
- Stark offers plenty of more notes in his column including the latest on the Yankees, Padres, and the remaining buyers for pitching.
Rays Designate Joey Butler
The Rays have designated outfielder Joey Butler for assignment, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on Twitter. His roster spot will go to the just-acquired Hank Conger.
Butler finally got an extended look in the big leagues last year, his age-29 campaign, and showed the ability to hit in the majors. Over 276 plate appearances, he slashed .276/.326/.416. Butler also hit eight home runs and contributed five stolen bases.
It seems likely that Butler will get a chance to earn a reserve outfield role somewhere after that solid effort. He’s always hit in the minors, and while his thirty-percent strikeout rate in the bigs isn’t the most promising sign, that’s hardly a crippling figure in this day and age. And Butler graded out as a solid defender in the corner outfield, too, so even a slightly above-average bat would make him a useful piece.
Rays Acquire Hank Conger
The Rays have acquired catcher Hank Conger from the Astros in exchange for cash considerations, the club announced. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first tweeted the move, adding that all of the team’s arbitration eligible players have been tendered contracts. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported earlier tonight that Conger had been offered to at least one club in a trade (Twitter link).
The 27-year-old Conger is a switch-hitter that is coming off a season in which he batted .229/.311/.448 with 11 home runs while backing up starting catcher Jason Castro. Conger did nearly all of his damage from the left side of the plate, hitting right-handed pitching at an outstanding .279/.353/.538 clip but slumping to a .175/.250/.351 batting line upon stepping into the right-handed batters’ box.
From a defensive standpoint, Conger is a puzzling story. He’s consistently graded out as an excellent pitch-framer — one of the primary reasons that drove the Astros (and, presumably, the Rays) to acquire him — but he developed a bizarre inability to throw out runners in 2015. While Conger has never caught attempted base-stealers at an elite rate, he prevented a staggeringly low one of 43 attempted thefts in 2015. He caught around one out of every four to five baserunners who attempted to run on him in previous seasons.
Clearly, the Astros had concerns over Conger’s throwing issues, as evidenced by the fact that he was moved for cash considerations despite a reasonably productive season at the plate, solid framing numbers and a projected $1.8MM salary. The Rays will hope that they can turn those woes around and utilize Conger behind the dish, perhaps in a platoon capacity, with Curt Casali or Rene Rivera. If they’re able to do so, the Rays can control Conger through the 2017 season. He currently has four years, 51 days of Major League service time.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Astros’ Search For Late-Inning Reliever
We’ve heard plenty of chatter over the last few months about the Astros’ interest in adding at the back of their pen. It appears from the latest notes that the club is still casting a wide net:
- Houston recently discussed power righty Ken Giles with the Phillies, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. Philadelphia “brought up” young starters Lance McCullers Jr. and Vince Velasquez in the talks, per the report. That obviously indicates what kind of return Philadelphia seeks. From my perspective, it would be somewhat surprising to see the ‘Stros part with controllable, MLB-level arms such as those, given that they not only have the possibility of being long-term rotation pieces but might be expected to be dominant relievers themselves if shifted to such a role.
- The Astros have also “been engaged” with the Rays on their high-leverage arms, Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee, Crasnick tweets. It appears that GM Jeff Luhnow is looking for ways to add controllable pieces at the back of the pen, Crasnick suggests.
- Having a preference for long-term control, though, doesn’t appear to mean that the club isn’t seriously interested in otherworldly Reds closer Aroldis Chapman, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that he sits “on top of the list” for Houston. Interestingly, Crasnick notes on Twitter that Astros owner Jim Crane is reputedly a “big fan” of the Cuban sensation.
Rosenthal On Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Cueto, Ross
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new notes column that contains quite a few Hot Stove related items. Some highlights from his latest piece…
- There’s a belief in the industry that the Cardinals‘ new television deal — which begins in 2018, when it will net the team $50MM and continue to rise to about $86MM, per Forbes — could allow the team to sign two premium free agents. Rosenthal adds, though, that the Cardinals could nonetheless be uncomfortable making the top bid for David Price or Jason Heyward and might be “reluctant” to commit the type of dollars Chris Davis will command.
- Meanwhile, the Cubs probably only have the financial firepower to add about $20MM to their annual payroll this winter. Sources tell Rosenthal that the club’s payroll will be in the $130-140MM range for the foreseeable future. Based on the numbers at Cot’s Contracts and MLBTR’s arbitration projections, the Cubs are a bit over $110MM in 2016 when including league-minimum players. That leaves some wiggle room for two adds, but probably not if one of those players is Price or Zack Greinke. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs could add a young pitcher via trade, possibly for Jorge Soler. That wouldn’t impact payroll much in the near-term and would free the club to pursue Heyward or Alex Gordon to reduce the team’s overall strikeout rate (and improve the outfield defense).
- The Dodgers have at least discussed the possibility of signing both Greinke and Price internally, according to Rosenthal, but they’re unlikely to go that route. Even the Dodgers and their seemingly limitless budget aren’t keen on the notion of paying three starters in the vicinity of $30MM annually, and they already have one such pitcher in Clayton Kershaw.
- That J.A. Happ landed a $36MM total from the Blue Jays could serve to increase the leverage that teams like the Indians and Rays have in talks for their starting pitchers. One exec told Rosenthal that “mediocre pitching” now costs a minimum of $30MM total. While that’s true enough, I don’t know that the Happ signing necessarily brought that realization about. We’ve seen players like Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas and Ricky Nolasco clear the $30MM barrier in recent seasons, after all, and Happ’s final push in Pittsburgh shows he’s at least capable of pitching at a high level if those adjustments can be sustained.
- The D-Backs‘ interest in Johnny Cueto stems, in part, from the fact that he’s not tied to draft pick compensation. Arizona selects 13th overall next season and values that pick, Rosenthal writes. The team is reluctant to part with one of the top overall unprotected picks and probably isn’t likely to part with it for a second-tier starter (e.g. Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen). Arizona has already been tied to both Mike Leake and Kenta Maeda, either of whom could bolster the rotation without harming next year’s draft.
- The Padres are still receiving plenty of interest in right-hander Tyson Ross but are only willing to move him for a “monster package,” as Rosenthal terms it. Ross is controlled for two more seasons, and MLBTR projects him to earn $10MM in 2016.
- Prior to Colby Rasmus accepting their qualifying offer, the Astros considered making a run at Brett Gardner or a similar type of player to fill the club’s leadoff slot, per Rosenthal. Now, however, they’ll likely use Jose Altuve there as the primary option again in 2016.